A global reptile assessment highlights shared conservation needs of tetrapods.

Comprehensive assessments of species' extinction risks have documented the extinction crisis1 and underpinned strategies for reducing those risks2. Global assessments reveal that, among tetrapods, 40.7% of amphibians, 25.4% of mammals and 13.6% of birds are threatened with extinction3. Because global assessments have been lacking, reptiles have been omitted from conservation-prioritization analyses that encompass other tetrapods4-7. Reptiles are unusually diverse in arid regions, suggesting that they may have different conservation needs6. Here we provide a comprehensive extinction-risk assessment of reptiles and show that at least 1,829 out of 10,196 species (21.1%) are threatened-confirming a previous extrapolation8 and representing 15.6 billion years of phylogenetic diversity. Reptiles are threatened by the same major factors that threaten other tetrapods-agriculture, logging, urban development and invasive species-although the threat posed by climate change remains uncertain. Reptiles inhabiting forests, where these threats are strongest, are more threatened than those in arid habitats, contrary to our prediction. Birds, mammals and amphibians are unexpectedly good surrogates for the conservation of reptiles, although threatened reptiles with the smallest ranges tend to be isolated from other threatened tetrapods. Although some reptiles-including most species of crocodiles and turtles-require urgent, targeted action to prevent extinctions, efforts to protect other tetrapods, such as habitat preservation and control of trade and invasive species, will probably also benefit many reptiles.

Diversity and Evolution of Frog Visual Opsins: Spectral Tuning and Adaptation to Distinct Light Environments.

Visual systems adapt to different light environments through several avenues including optical changes to the eye and neurological changes in how light signals are processed and interpreted. Spectral sensitivity can evolve via changes to visual pigments housed in the retinal photoreceptors through gene duplication and loss, differential and coexpression, and sequence evolution. Frogs provide an excellent, yet understudied, system for visual evolution research due to their diversity of ecologies (including biphasic aquatic-terrestrial life cycles) that we hypothesize imposed different selective pressures leading to adaptive evolution of the visual system, notably the opsins that encode the protein component of the visual pigments responsible for the first step in visual perception. Here, we analyze the diversity and evolution of visual opsin genes from 93 new eye transcriptomes plus published data for a combined dataset spanning 122 frog species and 34 families. We find that most species express the four visual opsins previously identified in frogs but show evidence for gene loss in two lineages. Further, we present evidence of positive selection in three opsins and shifts in selective pressures associated with differences in habitat and life history, but not activity pattern. We identify substantial novel variation in the visual opsins and, using microspectrophotometry, find highly variable spectral sensitivities, expanding known ranges for all frog visual pigments. Mutations at spectral-tuning sites only partially account for this variation, suggesting that frogs have used tuning pathways that are unique among vertebrates. These results support the hypothesis of adaptive evolution in photoreceptor physiology across the frog tree of life in response to varying environmental and ecological factors and further our growing understanding of vertebrate visual evolution.

Niche-based approach to explore the impacts of environmental disturbances on biodiversity.

Globally, species are increasingly at risk from compounding threatening processes, an increasingly prominent driver of which is environmental disturbances. To facilitate effective conservation efforts following such events, methods that evaluate potential impacts across multiple species and provide landscape-scale information are needed to guide targeted responses. Often, the geographic overlap between a disturbance and species' distribution is calculated and then used as a proxy for potential impact. However, such methods do not account for the important influence of environmental heterogeneity throughout species' ranges. To address this shortcoming, we quantified the effects of environmental disturbances on species' environmental niche space. Using the Australian 2019 and 2020 Black Summer fires as a case study, we applied a niche-centric approach to examine the potential impacts of these fires on 387 vertebrate species. We examined the utility of established and novel niche metrics to assess the potential impacts of large-scale disturbance events on species by comparing the potential effects of the fires as determined by our various niche measures to those derived from geographic-based measures of impact. We examined the quality of environmental space affected by the disturbance by quantifying the position in niche space where the disturbance occurred (center or margin), the uniqueness of the environmental space that was burned, and the degree to which the remaining, unburned portion of the niche differed from a species' original prefire niche. There was limited congruence between the proportion of geographic and niche space affected, which showed that geographic-based approaches in isolation may have underestimated the impact of the fires for 56% of modeled species. For each species, when combined, these metrics provided a greater indication of postdisturbance recovery potential than geographic-based measures alone. Accordingly, the integration of niche-based analyses into conservation assessments following large-scale disturbance events will lead to a more nuanced understanding of potential impacts and guide more informed and effective conservation actions.

Estrategia basada en los nichos para explorar el impacto de la perturbación ambiental sobre la biodiversidad Resumen En todo el mundo, las especies corren un riesgo cada vez mayor de verse amenazadas por procesos combinados, entre los que destacan las perturbaciones ambientales. Para facilitar una labor de conservación eficaz después de estos fenómenos, se necesitan métodos que evalúen el impacto potencial en varias especies y proporcionen información a escala de paisaje para orientar las respuestas específicas. A menudo, se calcula el traslape geográfico entre una perturbación y la distribución de las especies y se utiliza como indicador del impacto potencial. Sin embargo, estos métodos no tienen en cuenta la influencia importante de la heterogeneidad ambiental en toda el área de distribución de las especies. Para abordar esta deficiencia, cuantificamos los efectos de las perturbaciones ambientales en el espacio del nicho ambiental de las especies. Usamos los incendios australianos de Black Summer de 2019 y 2020 como caso de estudio y aplicamos un enfoque centrado en el nicho para examinar los impactos potenciales de estos incendios en 387 especies de vertebrados. Analizamos la utilidad de las métricas nuevas y establecidas de nicho para evaluar los impactos potenciales de los eventos de perturbación a gran escala para las especies con la comparación de los efectos potenciales de los incendios determinados por nuestras diversas medidas de nicho con los derivados de las medidas de impacto basadas en la geografía. Examinamos la calidad del espacio ambiental afectado por la perturbación al cuantificar la posición en el espacio del nicho donde se produjo la perturbación (centro o margen), la singularidad del espacio ambiental que se quemó y el grado en que la parte restante no quemada del nicho difería del nicho original de una especie antes del incendio. Hubo una congruencia limitada entre la proporción del espacio geográfico y del nicho afectado, lo que demostró que los enfoques geográficos aislados pueden subestimar el impacto de los incendios para el 56% de las especies modeladas. Para cada especie, estas métricas combinadas proporcionaron una mayor indicación del potencial de recuperación tras las perturbaciones que las medidas geográficas por sí solas. Por lo tanto, la integración de los análisis basados en nichos en las evaluaciones de conservación tras perturbaciones a gran escala permitirá comprender mejor los impactos potenciales y orientar las acciones de conservación de manera más informada y eficaz.

Population genomic diversity and structure in the golden bandicoot: a history of isolation, extirpation, and conservation.

Using genetic information to develop and implement conservation programs is vital for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. Evaluation of the genetic variability within and among remnant populations can inform management of both natural and translocated populations to maximise species' adaptive potential, mitigate negative impacts of inbreeding, and subsequently minimise risk of extinction. Here we use reduced representation sequencing to undertake a genetic assessment of the golden bandicoot (Isoodon auratus), a threatened marsupial endemic to Australia. The currently recognised taxon consists of three subspecies distributed among multiple natural and translocated populations. After confirming the genetic distinctiveness of I. auratus from two closely related taxa, I. fusciventer and I. macrourus, we identified four genetic clusters within I. auratus. These clusters exhibited substantial genetic differentiation (pairwise FST values ranging from 0.18 to 0.65, pairwise DXY ranging from 0.1 to 0.168), reflecting long-term isolation of some populations on offshore islands and the influence of genetic drift. Mainland natural populations in the Kimberley region had the highest genetic diversity and the largest contribution to overall allelic and gene diversity compared to both natural and translocated island populations. A population translocated to Guluwuru Island in the Northern Territory had the lowest genetic diversity. Our data suggest that island populations can appear genetically unique due to genetic drift and this needs to be taken into account when considering genetic diversity in conservation efforts to maintain overall genetic diversity of the species. We effectively demonstrate how genomic information can guide practical conservation planning, especially when declining species are represented by multiple isolated populations.

Improving quality of life and symptom experience in patients with metastatic breast cancer: A systematic review of supportive care interventions.

OBJECTIVE: The prognosis for individuals with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) has improved in recent decades. This expanding cohort has unique psychological and psychosocial needs, yet targeted supportive care interventions are underdeveloped. This systematic review seeks to summarise the available evidence on the effectiveness of supportive care interventions in improving quality of life and symptom experience of individuals living with MBC so that services can be developed to address the unmet needs of this cohort in future. METHODS: Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, ERIC, Medline and SocINDEX were searched for publications investigating the effect of supportive care interventions specifically targeted at addressing the quality of life or symptom experience of individuals living with MBC. Three reviewers independently screened and selected studies. Quality appraisal and assessed risk of bias were carried out. RESULTS: The search yielded 1972 citations. Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Interventions included psychological (n = 3), end of life discussion and preparation (n = 2), physical activity (n = 4), lifestyle (n = 2), and medication self-management support (n = 2). Three studies reported significant improvement in quality of life, two of which reported improved symptom experience in at least one symptom. Three further physical activity interventions showed improvement in at least one of the symptoms investigated. CONCLUSION: Studies reporting a statistically significant effect on quality of life and improved symptom experience were extremely heterogenous. We can tentatively suggest that multimodal and frequently administered interventions are effective, with physical activity interventions positively impacting on symptom experience, however further research is required.

Mental health and resilience in the Irish defense forces during the COVID-19 global pandemic.

The Irish Defense Forces (DF) responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and national public health crisis by deploying personnel to aid domestic civil authorities in medical and care settings, contact tracing, logistics, and operations. Current research on COVID-19 reveals increased psychological distress among frontline workers and the general public. Resilience has previously been associated with lower levels of psychological distress. This study sets out to test these associations, and to examine mental health differences between DF personnel deployed in Ireland on pandemic-related duties (DIPD) and non-DIPD. Participants were 231 DF members who completed the: Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale-10, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, Perceived Coronavirus Threat Questionnaire, Brief Trauma Questionnaire, Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-5, and Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Independent t-tests revealed no differences between DIPD and non-DIPD on measures of psychological distress or on self-rated mental health prior to COVID-19 (PC19) and during COVID-19 (DC19). Results of multiple hierarchical regression analyses revealed that depression predicted lower levels of resilience, while multiple traumatic events predicted higher levels of resilience. The total adjusted variance explained by the model was 25%. Clinical and policy implications for improving access to psychological support within the DF and military populations are discussed.

Extensive geographical variation in testes size and ejaculate traits in a terrestrial-breeding frog.

Ejaculate traits vary extensively among individuals and species, but little is known about their variation among populations of the same species. Here, we investigated patterns of intraspecific variation in male reproductive investment in the terrestrial-breeding frog Pseudophryne guentheri. Like most anurans, breeding activity in P. guentheri is cued by precipitation, and therefore the timing and duration of breeding seasons differ among geographically separated populations, potentially leading to differences in the level of sperm competition. We, therefore, anticipated local adaptation in sperm traits that reflect these phenological differences among populations. Our analysis of six natural populations across a rainfall gradient revealed significant divergence in testes and ejaculate traits that correspond with annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality; males from the northern and drier edge of the species range had significantly smaller testes containing fewer, smaller and less motile sperm compared with those from mesic central populations. These findings may reflect spatial variation in the strength of postcopulatory sexual selection, likely driven by local patterns of precipitation.

Microclimate modelling of beach sand temperatures reveals high spatial and temporal variation at sea turtle rookeries.

The continual development of ecological models and availability of high-resolution gridded climate surfaces have stimulated studies that link climate variables to functional traits of organisms. A primary constraint of these studies is the ability to reliably predict the microclimate that an organism experiences using macroscale climate inputs. This is particularly important in regions where access to empirical information is limited. Here, we contrast correlative models based on both ambient and sea surface temperatures to mechanistic modelling approaches to predict beach sand temperatures at depths relevant to sea turtle nesting. We show that mechanistic models are congruent with correlative models at predicting sand temperatures. We used these predictions to explore thermal variation across 46 mainland and island beaches that span the geographical range of sea turtle nesting in Western Australia. Using high resolution gridded climate surfaces and site-specific soil reflectance, we predict almost 9 °C variation in average annual temperatures between beaches, and nearly 10 °C variation in average temperatures during turtle nesting seasons. Validation of models demonstrated that predictions were typically within 2 °C of observations and, although most sites had high correlations (r2 > 0.7), predictive capacity varied between sites. An advantage of the mechanistic model demonstrated here is that it can be used to explore the impacts of climate change on sea turtle nesting beach temperatures as, unlike correlative models, it can be forced with novel combinations of environmental variables.

A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change.

Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.

Environmental Stress Increases the Magnitude of Nonadditive Genetic Variation in Offspring Fitness in the Frog Crinia georgiana.

When organisms encounter heterogeneous environments, selection may favor the ability of individuals to tailor their phenotypes to suit the prevailing conditions. Understanding the genetic basis of plastic responses is therefore vital for predicting whether susceptible populations can adapt and persist under new selection pressures. Here, we investigated whether there is potential for adaptive plasticity in development time in the quacking frog Crinia georgiana, a species experiencing a drying climate. Using a North Carolina II breeding design, we exposed 90 family groups to two water depth treatments (baseline and low water) late in larval development. We then estimated the contribution of additive and nonadditive sources of genetic variation to early offspring fitness under both environments. Our results revealed a marked decline in larval fitness under the stressful (low water) rearing environment but also that additive genetic variation was negligible for all traits. However, in most cases, we found significant sire-by-dam interactions, indicating the importance of nonadditive genetic variation for offspring fitness. Moreover, sire-by-dam interactions were modified by the treatment, indicating that patterns of nonadditive genetic variance depend on environmental context. For all traits, we found higher levels of nonadditive genetic variation (relative to total phenotypic variation) when larvae were reared under stressful conditions, suggesting that the fitness costs associated with incompatible parental crosses (e.g., homozygous deleterious recessive alleles) will only be expressed when water availability is low. Taken together, our results highlight the need to consider patterns of nonadditive genetic variation under contrasting selective regimes when considering the resilience of species to environmental change.

Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions.

Sustained predation pressure may prevent the loss of anti-predator traits from havened populations.

Conservation havens free of invasive predators are increasingly relied upon for fauna conservation, although havened populations can lose anti-predator traits, likely making them less suitable for life 'beyond the fence'. Sustaining low levels of mammalian predator pressure inside havens may prevent the loss of anti-predator traits from havened populations. We opportunistically compared behavioural and morphological anti-predator traits between four woylie (Bettongia penicillata ogilbyi) populations- one haven isolated from all mammalian predators, one haven containing a native mammalian predator (chuditch; Dasyurus geoffroii), and their respective non-havened counterparts (each containing both chuditch and invasive predators). Havened woylies existing without mammalian predators were smaller (shorter hindfeet, smaller body weight) and less reactive (consumed more food from fox-treated and control feeding stations, less agitated during human handling) than a non-havened reference population. However, in the haven containing chuditch, we found no difference in behaviour or morphology compared to the adjacent non-havened population. Across populations, anti-predator responses tended to appear stronger at sites with higher predator activity, suggestive of an adaptive response across a gradient of predation pressure. Our findings suggest that maintaining mammalian predation pressure in conservation havens could be effective for preventing or slowing the loss of anti-predator traits from these populations.

Securing the demographic and genetic future of tuatara through assisted colonization.

Climate change poses a particular threat to species with fragmented distributions and little or no capacity to migrate. Assisted colonization, moving species into regions where they have not previously occurred, aims to establish populations where they are expected to survive as climatic envelopes shift. However, adaptation to the source environment may affect whether species successfully establish in new regions. Assisted colonization has spurred debate among conservation biologists and ecologists over whether the potential benefits to the threatened species outweigh the potential disruption to recipient communities. In our opinion, the debate has been distracted by controversial examples, rather than cases where assisted colonization may be a viable strategy. We present a strategic plan for the assisted migration of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), an endemic New Zealand reptile. The plan includes use of extant populations as reference points for comparisons with assisted-colonization populations with respect to demography, phenotypic plasticity, and phenology; optimization of genetic variation; research to fill knowledge gaps; consideration of host and recipient communities; and inclusion of stakeholders in the planning stage. When strategically planned and monitored, assisted colonization could meet conservation and research goals and ultimately result in the establishment of long-term sustainable populations capable of persisting during rapid changes in climate.

A review of applications of environmental DNA for reptile conservation and management.

Reptile populations are in decline globally, with total reptile abundance halving in the past half century, and approximately a fifth of species currently threatened with extinction. Research on reptile distributions, population trends, and trophic interactions can greatly improve the accuracy of conservation listings and planning for species recovery, but data deficiency is an impediment for many species. Environmental DNA (eDNA) can detect species and measure community diversity at diverse spatio-temporal scales, and is especially useful for detection of elusive, cryptic, or rare species, making it potentially very valuable in herpetology. We aim to summarize the utility of eDNA as a tool for informing reptile conservation and management and discuss the benefits and limitations of this approach. A literature review was conducted to collect all studies that used eDNA and focus on reptile ecology, conservation, or management. Results of the literature search are summarized into key discussion points, and the review also draws on eDNA studies from other taxa to highlight methodological challenges and to identify future research directions. eDNA has had limited application to reptiles, relative to other vertebrate groups, and little use in regions with high species richness. eDNA techniques have been more successfully applied to aquatic reptiles than to terrestrial reptiles, and most (64%) of studies focused on aquatic habitats. Two of the four reptilian orders dominate the existing eDNA studies (56% Testudines, 49% Squamata, 5% Crocodilia, 0% Rhynchocephalia). Our review provides direction for the application of eDNA as an emerging tool in reptile ecology and conservation, especially when it can be paired with traditional monitoring approaches. Technologies associated with eDNA are rapidly advancing, and as techniques become more sensitive and accessible, we expect eDNA will be increasingly valuable for addressing key knowledge gaps for reptiles.

Using PVA and captive breeding to balance trade-offs in the rescue of the island dibbler onto a new island ark.

In the face of the current global extinction crisis, it is critical we give conservation management strategies the best chance of success. Australia is not exempt from global trends with currently the world's greatest mammal extinction rate (~ 1 per 8 years). Many more are threatened including the dibbler (Parantechinus apicalis) whose remnant range has been restricted to Western Australia at just one mainland site and two small offshore islands-Whitlock Island (5 ha) and Boullanger Island (35 ha). Here, we used 14 microsatellite markers to quantify genetic variation in the remaining island populations from 2013 to 2018 and incorporated these data into population viability analysis (PVA) models, used to assess factors important to dibbler survival and to provide guidance for translocations. Remnant population genetic diversity was low (< 0.3), and populations were highly divergent from each other (pairwise FSTs 0.29-0.52). Comparison of empirical data to an earlier study is consistent with recent declines in genetic diversity and models projected increasing extinction risk and declining genetic variation in the next century. Optimal translocation scenarios recommend 80 founders for new dibbler populations-provided by captive breeding-and determined the proportion of founders from parental populations to maximise genetic diversity and minimise harvesting impact. The goal of our approach is long-term survival of genetically diverse, self-sustaining populations and our methods are transferable. We consider mixing island with mainland dibblers to reinforce genetic variation.

Metabolic Rates and Thermal Thresholds of Embryonic Flatback Turtles (Natator depressus) from the North West Shelf of Australia.

AbstractNest microclimates influence embryonic development and survival in many lineages, including reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination. These microclimates are dependent on physical drivers and biological processes, such as embryonic metabolism, that generate heat. The flatback turtle (Natator depressus) has among the largest hatchlings of the seven extant sea turtle species, making it an excellent candidate for quantifying the contribution of embryonic metabolism to the nest microclimate. Consequently, we measured embryonic metabolic rates, development rates, and the relationship between temperature and sex determination for a N. depressus population nesting at Cemetery Beach in Western Australia, a mainland beach characterized by high sand temperatures. Total oxygen consumed at 29.5°C during an average 52-d incubation period was 2,622 mL, total carbon dioxide produced was 1,886 mL, and estimated embryonic heat production reached 38 mW at 90% of development. Adjustment of metabolic rates to 32°C and 34°C increased peak heat production by 18% and 27%, respectively. The pivotal temperature (TPIV) producing an equal sex ratio was 30.3°C, mixed sexes were produced between 29.3°C and 31.2°C, and only females were produced above 31.2°C. The TPIV was similar (within 0.2°C) to that of an island rookery within the same genetic stock (North West Shelf), but the peak development rate (2.5% d-1) was estimated to be achieved at a temperature ~2.5°C higher (34.7°C) than the island rookery. Our results add to a growing consensus that thermal thresholds vary among sea turtle populations, even within the same genetic stock. Furthermore, we show that metabolic heat will have an appreciable impact on the nest microclimate, which has implications for embryonic survival and fitness under a future climate with warmer sand temperatures.

Fitness consequences of targeted gene flow to counter impacts of drying climates on terrestrial-breeding frogs.

Targeted gene flow (TGF) could bolster the adaptive potential of isolated populations threatened by climate change, but could also lead to outbreeding depression. Here, we explore these possibilities by creating mixed- and within-population crosses in a terrestrial-breeding frog species threatened by a drying climate. We reared embryos of the crawling frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) on wet and dry soils and quantified fitness-related traits upon hatching. TGF produced mixed outcomes in hybrids, which depended on crossing direction (origin of gametes from each sex). North-south crosses led to low embryonic survival if eggs were of a southern origin, and high malformation rates when eggs were from a northern population. Conversely, east-west crosses led to one instance of hybrid vigour, evident by increased fitness and desiccation tolerance of hybrid offspring relative to offspring produced from within-population crosses. These contrasting results highlight the need to experimentally evaluate the outcomes of TGF for focal species across generations prior to implementing management actions.

Low desiccation and thermal tolerance constrains a terrestrial amphibian to a rare and disappearing microclimate niche.

Drier and hotter conditions caused by climate change threaten species that exist close to their physiological limits, as well as those with limited ability to move. Habitat specialists may also be particularly vulnerable if they have specific abiotic requirements. Here we assess whether thermal and hydric constraints can explain the highly restricted and declining distributions of the critically endangered terrestrial-breeding frog, Geocrinia alba. We also evaluate the species' vulnerability to climate change based on the similarity of current microclimatic conditions to their physiological limits. We found that G. alba had low thresholds of thermal and desiccation tolerance relative to other anuran species. The estimated thermal optimum (Topt ) and critical thermal maxima (CTmax ) were 23.3°C and 29.6°C, respectively, and adult frogs had an absorption threshold (AT, the lowest water potential at which water can be absorbed from a substrate) of -50 kPa, the lowest recorded for an amphibian. Comparing environmental conditions and water loss in the field using agar models showed that riparian habitats where frogs occur provide a unique microclimate in the landscape, offering significantly lower desiccation risk during extreme summer conditions compared to immediately adjacent riparian and terrestrial habitats. Monitoring of microclimate conditions within occupied frog habitats over 2 years showed that in extreme dry and hot years the AT was exceeded at six of eight sites, and Topt was exceeded at two of eight sites. Given their specific physiological limits, the apparent rarity of suitable microclimates and a regional drying-warming trend, we suggest that G. alba occupies a potentially disappearing niche and may be indicative of other habitat specialists that rely on ephemeral drainages. More broadly, this study highlights that desiccation thresholds may tightly constrain amphibian distributions and need to be considered along with thermal tolerance thresholds when predicting the impacts of climate change.

Geographic variation in adult and embryonic desiccation tolerance in a terrestrial-breeding frog.

Intraspecific variation in the ability of individuals to tolerate environmental perturbations is often neglected when considering the impacts of climate change. Yet this information is potentially crucial for mitigating deleterious effects of climate change on threatened species. Here we assessed patterns of intraspecific variation in desiccation tolerance in the frog Pseudophryne guentheri, a terrestrial-breeding species experiencing a drying climate. Adult frogs were collected from six populations across a rainfall gradient and their dehydration and rehydration rates were assessed. We also compared desiccation tolerance of embryos and hatchlings originating from within-population parental crosses from four of the populations. Embryos were reared on soil at three soil-water potentials and their desiccation tolerance was assessed across a range of traits. We found significant and strong patterns of intraspecific variation in almost all traits, both in adults and first-generation offspring. Adult frogs exhibited clinal variation in their water balance responses, with populations from drier sites both dehydrating and rehydrating more slowly compared to frogs from more mesic sites. Similarly, desiccation tolerance of first-generation offspring was significantly greater in populations from xeric sites. Our findings suggest that populations within this species will respond differently to the regional reduction in rainfall predicted by climate change models.

Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?

How will climate change affect species' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles, the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation, hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate, soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara, cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change, all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species, Sphenodon guntheri, by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is, however, an unlikely response to global warming, as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara, and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD.