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INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028. METHODS: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers. RESULTS: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from 721 million in 2022 to 551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices. CONCLUSION: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.
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BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment (CI) is a prevalent and debilitating manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, it is not included in the widely used concept of No Evidence of Disease Activity (NEDA-3). We expanded the NEDA-3 concept to NEDA-3 + by encompassing CI assessed through the Symbol Digit Modality Test (SDMT) and evaluated the effect of teriflunomide on NEDA3 + in patients treated in a real-world setting. The value of NEDA-3 + in predicting disability progression was also assessed. METHODS: This 96-weeks observational study enrolled patients already on treatment with teriflunomide for ≥ 24 weeks. The predictiveness of NEDA-3 and NEDA-3 + at 48 weeks on the change in motor disability at 96 weeks was compared through a two-sided McNemar test. RESULTS: The full analysis set (n = 128; 38% treatment naïve) featured relatively low level of disability (baseline EDSS = 1.97 ± 1.33). NEDA-3 and NEDA-3 + statuses were achieved by 82.8% and 64.8% of patients, respectively at 48 weeks vs. baseline, and by 57.0% and 49.2% of patients, respectively at 96 weeks vs. baseline. All patients except one were free of disability progression at Week 96, and NEDA-3 and NEDA-3 + were equally predictive. Most patients were free of relapse (87.5%), disability progression (94.5%) and new MRI activity (67.2%) comparing 96 weeks with baseline. SDMT scores were stable in patients with baseline score Ë35 and improved significantly in those with baseline score ≤ 35. Treatment persistence was high (81.0% at Week 96). CONCLUSION: Teriflunomide confirmed its real-world efficacy and was found to have a potentially beneficial effect on cognition.