Analysis of HLA A*02 association with vaccine efficacy in the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial.

UNLABELLED: The RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial demonstrated partial efficacy of 31% against HIV-1 infection. Studies into possible correlates of protection found that antibodies specific to the V1 and V2 (V1/V2) region of envelope correlated inversely with infection risk and that viruses isolated from trial participants contained genetic signatures of vaccine-induced pressure in the V1/V2 region. We explored the hypothesis that the genetic signatures in V1 and V2 could be partly attributed to selection by vaccine-primed T cells. We performed a T-cell-based sieve analysis of breakthrough viruses in the RV144 trial and found evidence of predicted HLA binding escape that was greater in vaccine versus placebo recipients. The predicted escape depended on class I HLA A*02- and A*11-restricted epitopes in the MN strain rgp120 vaccine immunogen. Though we hypothesized that this was indicative of postacquisition selection pressure, we also found that vaccine efficacy (VE) was greater in A*02-positive (A*02(+)) participants than in A*02(-) participants (VE = 54% versus 3%, P = 0.05). Vaccine efficacy against viruses with a lysine residue at site 169, important to antibody binding and implicated in vaccine-induced immune pressure, was also greater in A*02(+) participants (VE = 74% versus 15%, P = 0.02). Additionally, a reanalysis of vaccine-induced immune responses that focused on those that were shown to correlate with infection risk suggested that the humoral responses may have differed in A*02(+) participants. These exploratory and hypothesis-generating analyses indicate there may be an association between a class I HLA allele and vaccine efficacy, highlighting the importance of considering HLA alleles and host immune genetics in HIV vaccine trials. IMPORTANCE: The RV144 trial was the first to show efficacy against HIV-1 infection. Subsequently, much effort has been directed toward understanding the mechanisms of protection. Here, we conducted a T-cell-based sieve analysis, which compared the genetic sequences of viruses isolated from infected vaccine and placebo recipients. Though we hypothesized that the observed sieve effect indicated postacquisition T-cell selection, we also found that vaccine efficacy was greater for participants who expressed HLA A*02, an allele implicated in the sieve analysis. Though HLA alleles have been associated with disease progression and viral load in HIV-1 infection, these data are the first to suggest the association of a class I HLA allele and vaccine efficacy. While these statistical analyses do not provide mechanistic evidence of protection in RV144, they generate testable hypotheses for the HIV vaccine community and they highlight the importance of assessing the impact of host immune genetics in vaccine-induced immunity and protection. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT00223080.).

Safety and immunogenicity of a polyvalent DNA-protein HIV vaccine with matched Env immunogens delivered as a prime-boost regimen or coadministered in HIV-uninfected adults in the USA (HVTN 124): a phase 1, placebo-controlled, double-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: An effective HIV vaccine will most likely need to have potent immunogenicity and broad cross-subtype coverage. The aim of the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 124 was to evaluate safety and immunogenicity of a unique polyvalent DNA-protein HIV vaccine with matching envelope (Env) immunogens. METHODS: HVTN 124 was a randomised, phase 1, placebo-controlled, double-blind study, including participants who were HIV seronegative and aged 18-50 years at low risk for infection. The DNA vaccine comprised five plasmids: four copies expressing Env gp120 (clades A, B, C, and AE) and one gag p55 (clade C). The protein vaccine included four DNA vaccine-matched GLA-SE-adjuvanted recombinant gp120 proteins. Participants were enrolled across six clinical sites in the USA and were randomly assigned to placebo or one of two vaccine groups (ie, prime-boost or coadministration) in a 5:1 ratio in part A and a 7:1 ratio in part B. Vaccines were delivered via intramuscular needle injection. The primary outcomes were safety and tolerability, assessed via frequency, severity, and attributability of local and systemic reactogenicity and adverse events, laboratory safety measures, and early discontinuations. Part A evaluated safety. Part B evaluated safety and immunogenicity of two regimens: DNA prime (administered at months 0, 1, and 3) with protein boost (months 6 and 8), and DNA-protein coadministration (months 0, 1, 3, 6, and 8). All randomly assigned participants who received at least one dose were included in the safety analysis. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03409276) and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between April 19, 2018 and Feb 13, 2019, 60 participants (12 in part A [five men and seven women] and 48 in part B [21 men and 27 women]) were enrolled. All 60 participants received at least one dose, and 14 did not complete follow-up (six of 21 in the prime-boost group and eight of 21 in the coadminstration group). 11 clinical adverse events deemed by investigators as study-related occurred in seven of 48 participants in part B (eight of 21 in the prime-boost group and three of 21 in the coadministration group). Local reactogenicity in the vaccine groups was common, but the frequency and severity of reactogenicity signs or symptoms did not differ between the prime-boost and coadministration groups (eg, 20 [95%] of 21 in the prime-boost group vs 21 [100%] of 21 in the coadministration group had either local pain or tenderness of any severity [p=1·00], and seven [33%] vs nine [43%] had either erythema or induration [p=0·97]), nor did laboratory safety measures. There were no delayed-type hypersensitivity reactions or vasculitis or any severe clinical adverse events related to vaccination. The most frequently reported systemic reactogenicity symptoms in the active vaccine groups were malaise or fatigue (five [50%] of ten in part A and 17 [81%] of 21 in the prime-boost group vs 15 [71%] of 21 in the coadministration group in part B), headache (five [50%] and 18 [86%] vs 12 [57%]), and myalgia (four [40%] and 13 [62%] vs ten [48%]), mostly of mild or moderate severity. INTERPRETATION: Both vaccine regimens were safe, warranting evaluation in larger trials. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health and US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Trivalent mosaic or consensus HIV immunogens prime humoral and broader cellular immune responses in adults.

BACKGROUNDMosaic and consensus HIV-1 immunogens provide two distinct approaches to elicit greater breadth of coverage against globally circulating HIV-1 and have shown improved immunologic breadth in nonhuman primate models.METHODSThis double-blind randomized trial enrolled 105 healthy HIV-uninfected adults who received 3 doses of either a trivalent global mosaic, a group M consensus (CON-S), or a natural clade B (Nat-B) gp160 env DNA vaccine followed by 2 doses of a heterologous modified vaccinia Ankara-vectored HIV-1 vaccine or placebo. We performed prespecified blinded immunogenicity analyses at day 70 and day 238 after the first immunization. T cell responses to vaccine antigens and 5 heterologous Env variants were fully mapped.RESULTSEnv-specific CD4+ T cell responses were induced in 71% of the mosaic vaccine recipients versus 48% of the CON-S recipients and 48% of the natural Env recipients. The mean number of T cell epitopes recognized was 2.5 (95% CI, 1.2-4.2) for mosaic recipients, 1.6 (95% CI, 0.82-2.6) for CON-S recipients, and 1.1 (95% CI, 0.62-1.71) for Nat-B recipients. Mean breadth was significantly greater in the mosaic group than in the Nat-B group using overall (P = 0.014), prime-matched (P = 0.002), heterologous (P = 0.046), and boost-matched (P = 0.009) measures. Overall T cell breadth was largely due to Env-specific CD4+ T cell responses.CONCLUSIONPriming with a mosaic antigen significantly increased the number of epitopes recognized by Env-specific T cells and enabled more, albeit still limited, cross-recognition of heterologous variants. Mosaic and consensus immunogens are promising approaches to address global diversity of HIV-1.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02296541.FUNDINGUS NIH grants UM1 AI068614, UM1 AI068635, UM1 AI068618, UM1 AI069412, UL1 RR025758, P30 AI064518, UM1 AI100645, and UM1 AI144371, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant OPP52282.

Whole-blood cytokine secretion assay as a high-throughput alternative for assessing the cell-mediated immunity profile after two doses of an adjuvanted SARS-CoV-2 recombinant protein vaccine candidate.

OBJECTIVES: We previously described the Phase I-II evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 recombinant protein candidate vaccine, CoV2-PreS-dTM, with AF03- or AS03-adjuvant systems (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04537208). Here, we further characterise the cellular immunogenicity profile of this vaccine candidate using a whole-blood secretion assay in parallel to intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) of cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). METHODS: A randomly allocated subset of 90 healthy, SARS-CoV-2-seronegative adults aged ≥ 18 years who had received (random allocation) one or two separate injections (on study day [D]1 and D22) of saline placebo or CoV2-PreS-dTM formulated with AS03 or AF03 were included. Cytokine secretion was assessed using a TruCulture® whole-blood stimulation system in combination with multiplex bead array, and intracellular cytokine profiles were evaluated on thawed PBMCs following ex vivo stimulation with recombinant S protein at pre-vaccination (D1), post-dose 1 (D22) and post-dose 2 (D36). RESULTS: Both methods detected similar vaccine-induced responses after the first and second doses. We observed a Th1 bias (Th1/Th2 ratio > 1.0) for most treatment groups when analysed in whole blood, mainly characterised by increased IFN-γ, IL-2 and TNF-α secretion. Among participants aged ≥ 50 years, the Th1/Th2 ratio was higher for those who received vaccine candidate with AS03 versus AF03 adjuvant. ICS revealed that this higher Th1/Th2 ratio resulted from higher levels of IFN-γ expression and that the vaccine induced polyfunctional CD4+ T cells. CONCLUSIONS: The whole-blood cytokine secretion assay is a high-throughput alternative for assessing the quantity and character of vaccine-induced cellular responses.

Achieving intracellular cytokine staining assay concordance on two continents to assess HIV vaccine-induced T-cell responses.

The HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) conducts clinical trials on 4 continents in pursuit of a safe and effective HIV vaccine. Cellular immune responses to vaccination that define vaccine immunogenicity and/or immune correlates of protection can be measured using multiparameter intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) assays. The HVTN cellular immunology laboratory, located in Seattle, WA, conducts ICS assays for vaccine trials according to Good Clinical Laboratory Practices (GCLP). In 2013, the HVTN established a second GCLP compliant cellular immunology laboratory in Cape Town, South Africa to assess vaccine immunogenicity for HVTN trials conducted on the African continent. To ensure ICS readouts in the 2 laboratories were directly comparable, we conducted concordance testing using PBMC from healthy controls and vaccine trial participants. Despite standardized procedures and instrumentation, shared quality control measures and quality assurance oversight, several factors impacted our ability to obtain close agreement in T-cell responses measured in the 2 laboratories. One of these was the type of fetal bovine serum (FBS) used in the assay, which impacted lymphocyte cell viability and background responses. In addition, the differences in supernatant removal technique also significantly affected our ability to detect positive responses to vaccine antigens. Standardization of these factors allowed us to achieve and maintain ICS assay concordance across the 2 laboratories over multiple years, accelerating our efforts to evaluate HIV vaccines. The insights gained in this process are valuable for assay transfer efforts by groups of investigators that need to directly compare data generated in different laboratories around the globe.

Subtype C ALVAC-HIV and bivalent subtype C gp120/MF59 HIV-1 vaccine in low-risk, HIV-uninfected, South African adults: a phase 1/2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Modest efficacy was reported for the HIV vaccine tested in the RV144 trial, which comprised a canarypox vector (ALVAC) and envelope (env) glycoprotein (gp120). These vaccine components were adapted to express HIV-1 antigens from strains circulating in South Africa, and the adjuvant was changed to increase immunogenicity. Furthermore, 12-month immunisation was added to improve durability. In the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 100 trial, we aimed to assess this new regionally adapted regimen for advancement to efficacy testing. METHODS: HVTN 100 is a phase 1/2, randomised controlled, double-blind trial at six community research sites in South Africa. We randomly allocated adults (aged 18-40 years) without HIV infection and at low risk of HIV infection to either the vaccine regimen (intramuscular injection of ALVAC-HIV vector [vCP2438] at 0, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months plus bivalent subtype C gp120 and MF59 adjuvant at 3, 6, and 12 months) or placebo, in a 5:1 ratio. Randomisation was done by computer-generated list. Participants, investigators, and those assessing outcomes were masked to random assignments. Primary outcomes included safety and immune responses associated with correlates of HIV risk in RV144, 2 weeks after vaccination at 6 months (month 6·5). We compared per-protocol participants (ie, those who completed the first four vaccinations and provided samples at month 6·5) from HVTN 100 with stored RV144 samples assayed contemporaneously. This trial is registered with the South African National Clinical Trials Registry (DOH-27-0215-4796) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02404311). FINDINGS: Between Feb 9, 2015, and May 26, 2015, 252 participants were enrolled, of whom 210 were assigned vaccine and 42 placebo. 222 participants were included in the per-protocol analysis (185 vaccine and 37 placebo). 185 (100%) vaccine recipients developed IgG binding antibodies to all three vaccine-matched gp120 antigens with significantly higher titres (3·6-8·8 fold; all p<0·0001) than the corresponding vaccine-matched responses of RV144. The CD4+ T-cell response to the ZM96.C env protein in HVTN 100 was 56·4% (n=102 responders), compared with a response of 41·4% (n=79 responders) to 92TH023.AE in RV144 (p=0·0050). The IgG response to the 1086.C variable loops 1 and 2 (V1V2) env antigen in HVTN 100 was 70·5% (95% CI 63·5-76·6; n=129 responders), lower than the response to V1V2 in RV144 (99·0%, 95% CI 96·4-99·7; n=199 responders). INTERPRETATION: Although the IgG response to the HVTN 100 vaccine was lower than that reported in RV144, it exceeded the predicted 63% threshold needed for 50% vaccine efficacy using a V1V2 correlate of protection model. Thus, the subtype C HIV vaccine regimen qualified for phase 2b/3 efficacy testing, a critical next step of vaccine development. FUNDING: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

RTS,S/AS01E Malaria Vaccine Induces Memory and Polyfunctional T Cell Responses in a Pediatric African Phase III Trial.

Comprehensive assessment of cellular responses to the RTS,S/AS01E vaccine is needed to understand potential correlates and ultimately mechanisms of protection against malaria disease. Cellular responses recognizing the RTS,S/AS01E-containing circumsporozoite protein (CSP) and Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) were assessed before and 1 month after primary vaccination by intracellular cytokine staining and 16-color flow cytometry in 105 RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated and 74 rabies-vaccinated participants (controls) in a pediatric phase III trial in Africa. RTS,S/AS01E-vaccinated children had significantly higher frequencies of CSP- and HBsAg-specific CD4+ T cells producing IL-2, TNF-α, and CD40L and HBsAg-specific CD4+ T producing IFN-γ and IL-17 than baseline and the control group. Vaccine-induced responses were identified in both central and effector memory (EM) compartments. EM CD4+ T cells expressing IL-4 and IL-21 were detected recognizing both vaccine antigens. Consistently higher response rates to both antigens in RTS,S/AS01E-vaccinated than comparator-vaccinated children were observed. RTS,S/AS01E induced polyfunctional CSP- and HBsAg-specific CD4+ T cells, with a greater degree of polyfunctionality in HBsAg responses. In conclusion, RTS,S/AS01E vaccine induces T cells of higher functional heterogeneity and polyfunctionality than previously characterized. Responses detected in memory CD4+ T cell compartments may provide correlates of RTS,S/AS01-induced immunity and duration of protection in future correlates of immunity studies.

A randomized controlled safety/efficacy trial of therapeutic vaccination in HIV-infected individuals who initiated antiretroviral therapy early in infection.

Despite substantial clinical benefits, complete eradication of HIV has not been possible using antiretroviral therapy (ART) alone. Strategies that can either eliminate persistent viral reservoirs or boost host immunity to prevent rebound of virus from these reservoirs after discontinuation of ART are needed; one possibility is therapeutic vaccination. We report the results of a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a therapeutic vaccine regimen in patients in whom ART was initiated during the early stage of HIV infection and whose immune system was anticipated to be relatively intact. The objectives of our study were to determine whether the vaccine was safe and could induce an immune response that would maintain suppression of plasma viremia after discontinuation of ART. Vaccinations were well tolerated with no serious adverse events but produced only modest augmentation of existing HIV-specific CD4+ T cell responses, with little augmentation of CD8+ T cell responses. Compared with placebo, the vaccination regimen had no significant effect on the kinetics or magnitude of viral rebound after interruption of ART and no impact on the size of the HIV reservoir in the CD4+ T cell compartment. Notably, 26% of subjects in the placebo arm exhibited sustained suppression of viremia (<400 copies/ml) after treatment interruption, a rate of spontaneous suppression higher than previously reported. Our findings regarding the degree and kinetics of plasma viral rebound after ART interruption have potentially important implications for the design of future trials testing interventions aimed at achieving ART-free control of HIV infection.

DNA Priming Increases Frequency of T-Cell Responses to a Vesicular Stomatitis Virus HIV Vaccine with Specific Enhancement of CD8+ T-Cell Responses by Interleukin-12 Plasmid DNA.

The HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 087 vaccine trial assessed the effect of increasing doses of pIL-12 (interleukin-12 delivered as plasmid DNA) adjuvant on the immunogenicity of an HIV-1 multiantigen (MAG) DNA vaccine delivered by electroporation and boosted with a vaccine comprising an attenuated vesicular stomatitis virus expressing HIV-1 Gag (VSV-Gag). We randomized 100 healthy adults to receive placebo or 3 mg HIV-MAG DNA vaccine (ProfectusVax HIV-1 gag/pol or ProfectusVax nef/tat/vif, env) coadministered with pIL-12 at 0, 250, 1,000, or 1,500 µg intramuscularly by electroporation at 0, 1, and 3 months followed by intramuscular inoculation with 3.4 × 107 PFU VSV-Gag vaccine at 6 months. Immune responses were assessed after the prime and boost and 6 months after the last vaccination. High-dose pIL-12 increased the magnitude of CD8+ T-cell responses postboost compared to no pIL-12 (P = 0.02), while CD4+ T-cell responses after the prime were higher in the absence of pIL-12 than with low- and medium-dose pIL-12 (P ≤ 0.05). The VSV boost increased Gag-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses in all groups (P < 0.001 for CD4+ T cells), inducing a median of four Gag epitopes in responders. Six to 9 months after the boost, responses decreased in magnitude, but CD8+ T-cell response rates were maintained. The addition of a DNA prime dramatically improved responses to the VSV vaccine tested previously in the HVTN 090 trial, leading to broad epitope targeting and maintained CD8+ T-cell response rates at early memory. The addition of high-dose pIL-12 given with a DNA prime by electroporation and boosted with VSV-Gag increased the CD8+ T-cell responses but decreased the CD4+ responses. This approach may be advantageous in reshaping the T-cell responses to a variety of chronic infections or tumors. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01578889.).

Evaluation of methods for oligonucleotide array data via quantitative real-time PCR.

BACKGROUND: There are currently many different methods for processing and summarizing probe-level data from Affymetrix oligonucleotide arrays. It is of great interest to validate these methods and identify those that are most effective. There is no single best way to do this validation, and a variety of approaches is needed. Moreover, gene expression data are collected to answer a variety of scientific questions, and the same method may not be best for all questions. Only a handful of validation studies have been done so far, most of which rely on spike-in datasets and focus on the question of detecting differential expression. Here we seek methods that excel at estimating relative expression. We evaluate methods by identifying those that give the strongest linear association between expression measurements by array and the "gold-standard" assay. Quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) is generally considered the "gold-standard" assay for measuring gene expression by biologists and is often used to confirm findings from microarray data. Here we use qRT-PCR measurements to validate methods for the components of processing oligo array data: background adjustment, normalization, mismatch adjustment, and probeset summary. An advantage of our approach over spike-in studies is that methods are validated on a real dataset that was collected to address a scientific question. RESULTS: We initially identify three of six popular methods that consistently produced the best agreement between oligo array and RT-PCR data for medium- and high-intensity genes. The three methods are generally known as MAS5, gcRMA, and the dChip mismatch mode. For medium- and high-intensity genes, we identified use of data from mismatch probes (as in MAS5 and dChip mismatch) and a sequence-based method of background adjustment (as in gcRMA) as the most important factors in methods' performances. However, we found poor reliability for methods using mismatch probes for low-intensity genes, which is in agreement with previous studies. CONCLUSION: We advocate use of sequence-based background adjustment in lieu of mismatch adjustment to achieve the best results across the intensity spectrum. No method of normalization or probeset summary showed any consistent advantages.

Vaccine-induced IgG antibodies to V1V2 regions of multiple HIV-1 subtypes correlate with decreased risk of HIV-1 infection.

UNLABELLED: In the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial, IgG antibody (Ab) binding levels to variable regions 1 and 2 (V1V2) of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein gp120 were an inverse correlate of risk of HIV-1 infection. To determine if V1V2-specific Abs cross-react with V1V2 from different HIV-1 subtypes, if the nature of the V1V2 antigen used to asses cross-reactivity influenced infection risk, and to identify immune assays for upcoming HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials, new V1V2-scaffold antigens were designed and tested. Protein scaffold antigens carrying the V1V2 regions from HIV-1 subtypes A, B, C, D or CRF01_AE were assayed in pilot studies, and six were selected to assess cross-reactive Abs in the plasma from the original RV144 case-control cohort (41 infected vaccinees, 205 frequency-matched uninfected vaccinees, and 40 placebo recipients) using ELISA and a binding Ab multiplex assay. IgG levels to these antigens were assessed as correlates of risk in vaccine recipients using weighted logistic regression models. Levels of Abs reactive with subtype A, B, C and CRF01_AE V1V2-scaffold antigens were all significant inverse correlates of risk (p-values of 0.0008-0.05; estimated odds ratios of 0.53-0.68 per 1 standard deviation increase). Thus, levels of vaccine-induced IgG Abs recognizing V1V2 regions from multiple HIV-1 subtypes, and presented on different scaffolds, constitute inverse correlates of risk for HIV-1 infection in the RV144 vaccine trial. The V1V2 antigens provide a link between RV144 and upcoming HIV-1 vaccine trials, and identify reagents and methods for evaluating V1V2 Abs as possible correlates of protection against HIV-1 infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00223080.

FCGR2C polymorphisms associate with HIV-1 vaccine protection in RV144 trial.

The phase III RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) to be 31.2%. This trial demonstrated that the presence of HIV-1-specific IgG-binding Abs to envelope (Env) V1V2 inversely correlated with infection risk, while the presence of Env-specific plasma IgA Abs directly correlated with risk of HIV-1 infection. Moreover, Ab-dependent cellular cytotoxicity responses inversely correlated with risk of infection in vaccine recipients with low IgA; therefore, we hypothesized that vaccine-induced Fc receptor-mediated (FcR-mediated) Ab function is indicative of vaccine protection. We sequenced exons and surrounding areas of FcR-encoding genes and found one FCGR2C tag SNP (rs114945036) that associated with VE against HIV-1 subtype CRF01_AE, with lysine at position 169 (169K) in the V2 loop (CRF01_AE 169K). Individuals carrying CC in this SNP had an estimated VE of 15%, while individuals carrying CT or TT exhibited a VE of 91%. Furthermore, the rs114945036 SNP was highly associated with 3 other FCGR2C SNPs (rs138747765, rs78603008, and rs373013207). Env-specific IgG and IgG3 Abs, IgG avidity, and neutralizing Abs inversely correlated with CRF01_AE 169K HIV-1 infection risk in the CT- or TT-carrying vaccine recipients only. These data suggest a potent role of Fc-γ receptors and Fc-mediated Ab function in conferring protection from transmission risk in the RV144 VE trial.

Analysis of V2 antibody responses induced in vaccinees in the ALVAC/AIDSVAX HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial.

The RV144 clinical trial of a prime/boost immunizing regimen using recombinant canary pox (ALVAC-HIV) and two gp120 proteins (AIDSVAX B and E) was previously shown to have a 31.2% efficacy rate. Plasma specimens from vaccine and placebo recipients were used in an extensive set of assays to identify correlates of HIV-1 infection risk. Of six primary variables that were studied, only one displayed a significant inverse correlation with risk of infection: the antibody (Ab) response to a fusion protein containing the V1 and V2 regions of gp120 (gp70-V1V2). This finding prompted a thorough examination of the results generated with the complete panel of 13 assays measuring various V2 Abs in the stored plasma used in the initial pilot studies and those used in the subsequent case-control study. The studies revealed that the ALVAC-HIV/AIDSVAX vaccine induced V2-specific Abs that cross-react with multiple HIV-1 subgroups and recognize both conformational and linear epitopes. The conformational epitope was present on gp70-V1V2, while the predominant linear V2 epitope mapped to residues 165-178, immediately N-terminal to the putative α4ß7 binding motif in the mid-loop region of V2. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to compare the risk of infection with data from 12 V2 assays, and in 11 of these, the ORs were ≤1, reaching statistical significance for two of the variables: Ab responses to gp70-V1V2 and to overlapping V2 linear peptides. It remains to be determined whether anti-V2 Ab responses were directly responsible for the reduced infection rate in RV144 and whether anti-V2 Abs will prove to be important with other candidate HIV vaccines that show efficacy, however, the results support continued dissection of Ab responses to the V2 region which may illuminate mechanisms of protection from HIV-1 infection and may facilitate the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine.

Contrasting two frameworks for ROC analysis of ordinal ratings.

BACKGROUND: Statistical evaluation of medical imaging tests used for diagnostic and prognostic purposes often employs receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Two methods for ROC analysis are popular. The ordinal regression method is the standard approach used when evaluating tests with ordinal values. The direct ROC modeling method is a more recently developed approach, motivated by applications to tests with continuous values. OBJECTIVE: The authors compare the methods in terms of model formulations, interpretations of estimated parameters, the ranges of scientific questions that can be addressed with them, their computational algorithms, and the efficiencies with which they use data. RESULTS: The authors show that a strong relationship exists between the methods by demonstrating that they fit the same models when only a single test is evaluated. The ordinal regression models are typically alternative parameterizations of the direct ROC models and vice versa. The direct method has two major advantages over the ordinal regression method: 1) estimated parameters relate directly to ROC curves, facilitating interpretations of covariate effects on ROC performance, and 2) comparisons between tests can be done directly in this framework. Comparisons can be made while accommodating covariate effects and even between tests that have values on different scales, such as between a continuous biomarker test and an ordinal valued imaging test. The ordinal regression method provides slightly more precise parameter estimates from data in our simulated data models. CONCLUSION: Although the ordinal regression method is slightly more efficient, the direct ROC modeling method has important advantages in regard to interpretation, and it offers a framework to address a broader range of scientific questions, including the facility to compare tests.

The potential of genes and other markers to inform about risk.

BACKGROUND: Advances in biotechnology have raised expectations that biomarkers, including genetic profiles, will yield information to accurately predict outcomes for individuals. However, results to date have been disappointing. In addition, statistical methods to quantify the predictive information in markers have not been standardized. METHODS: We discuss statistical techniques to summarize predictive information, including risk distribution curves and measures derived from them, that relate to decision making. Attributes of these measures are contrasted with alternatives such as receiver operating characteristic curves, R(2), percent reclassification, and net reclassification index. Data are generated from simple models of risk conferred by genetic profiles for individuals in a population. Statistical techniques are illustrated, and the risk prediction capacities of different risk models are quantified. RESULTS: Risk distribution curves are most informative and relevant to clinical practice. They show proportions of subjects classified into clinically relevant risk categories. In a population in which 10% have the outcome event and subjects are categorized as high risk if their risk exceeds 20%, we identified some settings where more than half of those destined to have an event were classified as high risk by the risk model. Either 150 genes each with odds ratio of 1.5 or 250 genes each with odds ratio of 1.25 were required when the minor allele frequencies are 10%. We show that conclusions based on receiver operating characteristic curves may not be the same as conclusions based on risk distribution curves. CONCLUSIONS: Many highly predictive genes will be required to identify substantial numbers of subjects at high risk.