Capture and visualization of live Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli from tuberculosis patient bioaerosols.

Interrupting transmission is an attractive anti-tuberculosis (TB) strategy but it remains underexplored owing to our poor understanding of the events surrounding transfer of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) between hosts. Determining when live, infectious Mtb bacilli are released and by whom has proven especially challenging. Consequently, transmission chains are inferred only retrospectively, when new cases are diagnosed. This process, which relies on molecular analyses of Mtb isolates for epidemiological fingerprinting, is confounded by the prolonged infectious period of TB and the potential for transmission from transient exposures. We developed a Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC) equipped with high-efficiency filtration and sampling technologies for liquid-capture of all particulate matter (including Mtb) released during respiration and non-induced cough. Combining the mycobacterial cell wall probe, DMN-trehalose, with fluorescence microscopy of RASC-captured bioaerosols, we detected and quantified putative live Mtb bacilli in bioaerosol samples arrayed in nanowell devices. The RASC enabled non-invasive capture and isolation of viable Mtb from bioaerosol within 24 hours of collection. A median 14 live Mtb bacilli (range 0-36) were isolated in single-cell format from 90% of confirmed TB patients following 60 minutes bioaerosol sampling. This represented a significant increase over previous estimates of transmission potential, implying that many more organisms might be released daily than commonly assumed. Moreover, variations in DMN-trehalose incorporation profiles suggested metabolic heterogeneity in aerosolized Mtb. Finally, preliminary analyses indicated the capacity for serial image capture and analysis of nanowell-arrayed bacilli for periods extending into weeks. These observations support the application of this technology to longstanding questions in TB transmission including the propensity for asymptomatic transmission, the impact of TB treatment on Mtb bioaerosol release, and the physiological state of aerosolized bacilli.

Estimating Tuberculosis Transmission Risks in a Primary Care Clinic in South Africa: Modeling of Environmental and Clinical Data.

BACKGROUND: Congregate settings, such as healthcare clinics, may play an essential role in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. Using patient and environmental data, we studied transmission at a primary care clinic in South Africa. METHODS: We collected patient movements, cough frequency, and clinical data, and measured indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, relative humidity, and Mtb genomes in the air. We used negative binomial regression model to investigate associations. RESULTS: We analyzed 978 unique patients who contributed 14 795 data points. The median patient age was 33 (interquartile range [IQR], 26-41) years, and 757 (77.4%) were female. Overall, median CO2 levels were 564 (IQR 495-646) parts per million and were highest in the morning. Median number of coughs per day was 466 (IQR, 368-503), and overall median Mtb DNA copies/µL/day was 4.2 (IQR, 1.2-9.5). We found an increased presence of Mtb DNA in the air of 32% (95% credible interval, 7%-63%) per 100 additional young adults (aged 15-29 years) and 1% (0-2%) more Mtb DNA per 10% increase of relative humidity. Estimated cumulative transmission risks for patients attending the clinic monthly for at least 1 hour range between 9% and 29%. CONCLUSIONS: We identified young adults and relative humidity as potentially important factors for transmission risks in healthcare clinics. Our approach should be used to detect transmission and evaluate infection control interventions.

An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development and evaluation of new global and local computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype.

OBJECTIVES: Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here, we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare the potential utility of global and local models as a treatment tool for South Africa. METHODS: Global random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to therapy following virological failure using 29 574 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype, 3179 of which were from South Africa and were used to develop local models. In addition, 15 130 TCEs including genotypes were used to develop another set of models. The 'no-genotype' models were tested with an independent global test set (n = 1700) plus a subset from South Africa (n = 222). The genotype models were tested with 750 independent cases. RESULTS: The global no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.79 with the global and South African tests sets, respectively, and the South African models achieved AUCs of 0.70 and 0.79. The genotype models achieved an AUC of 0.84. The global no-genotype models identified more alternative, locally available regimens that were predicted to be effective for cases that failed their new regimen in the South African clinics than the local models. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate predictors of outcomes than genotyping with rules-based interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype, out-performed the local South African models and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Smg1 haploinsufficiency predisposes to tumor formation and inflammation.

SMG1 is a member of the phosphoinositide kinase-like kinase family of proteins that includes ATM, ATR, and DNA-PK, proteins with known roles in DNA damage and cellular stress responses. SMG1 has a well-characterized role in nonsense-mediated decay as well as suggested roles in the DNA damage response, resistance to oxidative stress, regulation of hypoxic responses, and apoptosis. To understand the roles of SMG1 further, we generated a Genetrap Smg1 mouse model. Smg1 homozygous KO mice were early embryonic lethal, but Smg1 heterozygous mice showed a predisposition to a range of cancers, particularly lung and hematopoietic malignancies, as well as development of chronic inflammation. These mice did not display deficiencies in known roles of SMG1, including nonsense-mediated decay. However, they showed elevated basal tissue and serum cytokine levels, indicating low-level inflammation before the development of tumors. Smg1 heterozygous mice also showed evidence of oxidative damage in tissues. These data suggest that the inflammation observed in Smg1 haploinsufficiency contributes to susceptibility to cancer and that Smg1-deficient animals represent a model of inflammation-enhanced cancer development.

Ploidy variation as an adaptive mechanism in human pathogenic fungi.

Changes in ploidy have a profound and usually negative influence on cellular viability and proliferation, yet the vast majority of cancers and tumours exhibit an aneuploid karyotype. Whether this genomic plasticity is a cause or consequence of malignant transformation remains uncertain. Systemic fungal pathogens regularly develop aneuploidies in a similar manner during human infection, often far in excess of the natural rate of chromosome nondisjunction. As both processes fundamentally represent cells evolving under selective pressures, this suggests that changes in chromosome number may be a concerted mechanism to adapt to the hostile host environment. Here, we examine the mechanisms by which aneuploidy and polyploidy are generated in the fungal pathogens Candida albicans and Cryptococcus neoformans and investigate whether these represent an adaptive strategy under severe stress through the rapid generation of large-scale mutations. Insights into fungal ploidy changes, strategies for tolerating aneuploidies and proliferation during infection may yield novel targets for both antifungal and anticancer therapies.

Integrating social contact and environmental data in evaluating tuberculosis transmission in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: Population models of tuberculosis transmission have not accounted for social contact structure and the role of the environment in which tuberculosis is transmitted. METHODS: We utilized extensions to the Wells-Riley model of tuberculosis transmission, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a tracer gas, to describe transmission patterns in an endemic community. Drawing upon social interaction data and carbon dioxide measurements from a South African township, we created an age-structured model of tuberculosis transmission in households, public transit, schools, and workplaces. We fit the model to local data on latent tuberculosis prevalence by age. RESULTS: Most tuberculosis infections (84%) were estimated to occur outside of one's own household. Fifty percent of infections among young adults (ages 15-19) occurred in schools, due to high contact rates and poor ventilation. Despite lower numbers of contacts in workplaces, assortative mixing among adults with high rates of smear-positive tuberculosis contributed to transmission in this environment. Households and public transit were important sites of transmission between age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with molecular epidemiologic estimates, a minority of tuberculosis transmission was estimated to occur within households, which may limit the impact of contact investigations. Further work is needed to investigate the role of schools in tuberculosis transmission.

An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models that do not require a genotype to predict HIV treatment outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: The optimal individualized selection of antiretroviral drugs in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotyping. Here we describe the development of the latest computational models to predict the response to combination antiretroviral therapy without a genotype, for potential use in such settings. METHODS: Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of a virological response to therapy (<50 copies HIV RNA/mL) following virological failure using the following data from 22,567 treatment-change episodes including 1090 from southern Africa: baseline viral load and CD4 cell count, treatment history, drugs in the new regimen, time to follow-up and follow-up viral load. The models were assessed during cross-validation and with an independent global test set of 1000 cases including 100 from southern Africa. The models' accuracy [area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC)] was evaluated and compared with genotyping using rules-based interpretation systems for those cases with genotypes available. RESULTS: The models achieved AUCs of 0.79-0.84 (mean 0.82) during cross-validation, 0.80 with the global test set and 0.78 with the southern African subset. The AUCs were significantly lower (0.56-0.57) for genotyping. CONCLUSIONS: The models predicted virological response to HIV therapy without a genotype as accurately as previous models that included a genotype. They were accurate for cases from southern Africa and significantly more accurate than genotyping. These models will be accessible via the online treatment support tool HIV-TRePS and have the potential to help optimize antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings where genotyping is not generally available.

De novo GTP biosynthesis is critical for virulence of the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus neoformans.

We have investigated the potential of the GTP synthesis pathways as chemotherapeutic targets in the human pathogen Cryptococcus neoformans, a common cause of fatal fungal meningoencephalitis. We find that de novo GTP biosynthesis, but not the alternate salvage pathway, is critical to cryptococcal dissemination and survival in vivo. Loss of inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase (IMPDH) in the de novo pathway results in slow growth and virulence factor defects, while loss of the cognate phosphoribosyltransferase in the salvage pathway yielded no phenotypes. Further, the Cryptococcus species complex displays variable sensitivity to the IMPDH inhibitor mycophenolic acid, and we uncover a rare drug-resistant subtype of C. gattii that suggests an adaptive response to microbial IMPDH inhibitors in its environmental niche. We report the structural and functional characterization of IMPDH from Cryptococcus, revealing insights into the basis for drug resistance and suggesting strategies for the development of fungal-specific inhibitors. The crystal structure reveals the position of the IMPDH moveable flap and catalytic arginine in the open conformation for the first time, plus unique, exploitable differences in the highly conserved active site. Treatment with mycophenolic acid led to significantly increased survival times in a nematode model, validating de novo GTP biosynthesis as an antifungal target in Cryptococcus.

Integration-free induced pluripotent stem cells model genetic and neural developmental features of down syndrome etiology.

Down syndrome (DS) is the most frequent cause of human congenital mental retardation. Cognitive deficits in DS result from perturbations of normal cellular processes both during development and in adult tissues, but the mechanisms underlying DS etiology remain poorly understood. To assess the ability of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) to model DS phenotypes, as a prototypical complex human disease, we generated bona fide DS and wild-type (WT) nonviral iPSCs by episomal reprogramming. DS iPSCs selectively overexpressed chromosome 21 genes, consistent with gene dosage, which was associated with deregulation of thousands of genes throughout the genome. DS and WT iPSCs were neurally converted at >95% efficiency and had remarkably similar lineage potency, differentiation kinetics, proliferation, and axon extension at early time points. However, at later time points DS cultures showed a twofold bias toward glial lineages. Moreover, DS neural cultures were up to two times more sensitive to oxidative stress-induced apoptosis, and this could be prevented by the antioxidant N-acetylcysteine. Our results reveal a striking complexity in the genetic alterations caused by trisomy 21 that are likely to underlie DS developmental phenotypes, and indicate a central role for defective early glial development in establishing developmental defects in DS brains. Furthermore, oxidative stress sensitivity is likely to contribute to the accelerated neurodegeneration seen in DS, and we provide proof of concept for screening corrective therapeutics using DS iPSCs and their derivatives. Nonviral DS iPSCs can therefore model features of complex human disease in vitro and provide a renewable and ethically unencumbered discovery platform.

Decreasing household contribution to TB transmission with age: a retrospective geographic analysis of young people in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission rates are exceptionally high in endemic TB settings. Adolescence represents a period of increasing TB infection and disease but little is known as to where adolescents acquire TB infection. We explored the relationship between residential exposure to adult TB cases and infection in children and adolescents in a South African community with high burdens of TB and HIV. METHODS: TB infection data were obtained from community, school-based tuberculin skin test (TST) surveys performed in 2006, 2007 and 2009. A subset of 2007 participants received a repeat TST in 2009, among which incident TB infections were identified. Using residential address, all adult TB cases notified by the community clinic between 1996 and 2009 were cross-referenced with childhood and adolescent TST results. Demographic and clinic data including HIV status were abstracted for TB cases. Multivariate logistic regression models examined the association of adult TB exposure with childhood and adolescent prevalent and incident TB infection. RESULTS: Of 1,100 children and adolescents included in the prevalent TB infection analysis, 480 (44%) were TST positive and 651 (59%) were exposed to an adult TB case on their residential plot. Prevalent TB infection in children aged 5-9 and 10-14 years was positively associated with residential exposure to an adult TB case (odds ratio [OR]:2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-3.6 and OR:1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.3 respectively), but no association was found in adolescents ≥15 years (OR:1.4; 95% CI: 0.9-2.0). HIV status of adult TB cases was not associated with TB infection (p = 0.62). Of 67 previously TST negative children, 16 (24%) converted to a positive TST in 2009. These incident infections were not associated with residential exposure to an adult TB case (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 0.5-7.3). CONCLUSIONS: TB infection among young children was strongly associated with residential exposure to an adult TB case, but prevalent and incident TB infection in adolescents was not associated with residential exposure. The HIV-status of adult TB cases was not a risk factor for transmission. The high rates of TB infection and disease among adolescents underscore the importance of identifying where infection occurs in this age group.

Microevolution of Cryptococcus neoformans driven by massive tandem gene amplification.

The subtelomeric regions of organisms ranging from protists to fungi undergo a much higher rate of rearrangement than is observed in the rest of the genome. While characterizing these ~40-kb regions of the human fungal pathogen Cryptococcus neoformans, we have identified a recent gene amplification event near the right telomere of chromosome 3 that involves a gene encoding an arsenite efflux transporter (ARR3). The 3,177-bp amplicon exists in a tandem array of 2-15 copies and is present exclusively in strains with the C. neoformans var. grubii subclade VNI A5 MLST profile. Strains bearing the amplification display dramatically enhanced resistance to arsenite that correlates with the copy number of the repeat; the origin of increased resistance was verified as transport-related by functional complementation of an arsenite transporter mutant of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Subsequent experimental evolution in the presence of increasing concentrations of arsenite yielded highly resistant strains with the ARR3 amplicon further amplified to over 50 copies, accounting for up to ~1% of the whole genome and making the copy number of this repeat as high as that seen for the ribosomal DNA. The example described here therefore represents a rare evolutionary intermediate-an array that is currently in a state of dynamic flux, in dramatic contrast to relatively common, static relics of past tandem duplications that are unable to further amplify due to nucleotide divergence. Beyond identifying and engineering fungal isolates that are highly resistant to arsenite and describing the first reported instance of microevolution via massive gene amplification in C. neoformans, these results suggest that adaptation through gene amplification may be an important mechanism that C. neoformans employs in response to environmental stresses, perhaps including those encountered during infection. More importantly, the ARR3 array will serve as an ideal model for further molecular genetic analyses of how tandem gene duplications arise and expand.

Modeling the role of public transportation in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South Africa.

Current tuberculosis notification rates in South Africa are among the highest ever recorded. Although the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic has been a critical factor, the density of respiratory contacts in high-risk environments may be an important and underappreciated driver. Using a modified Wells-Riley model for airborne disease transmission, we estimated the risk of tuberculosis transmission on 3 modes of public transit (minibus taxis, buses, and trains) in Cape Town, South Africa, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a natural tracer gas to evaluate air exchange. Carbon dioxide measurements were performed between October and December of 2011. Environmental risk, reflected in the rebreathed fraction of air, was highest in minibus taxis and lowest in trains; however, the average number of passengers sharing an indoor space was highest in trains and lowest in minibus taxis. Among daily commuters, the annual risk of tuberculosis infection was projected to be 3.5%-5.0% and was highest among minibus taxi commuters. Assuming a duration of infectiousness of 1 year, the basic reproductive number attributable to transportation was more than 1 in all 3 modes of transportation. Given its poor ventilation and high respiratory contact rates, public transportation may play a critical role in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South African cities.

Purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of adenylosuccinate synthetase from the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus neoformans.

With increasingly large immunocompromised populations around the world, opportunistic fungal pathogens such as Cryptococcus neoformans are a growing cause of morbidity and mortality. To combat the paucity of antifungal compounds, new drug targets must be investigated. Adenylosuccinate synthetase is a crucial enzyme in the ATP de novo biosynthetic pathway, catalyzing the formation of adenylosuccinate from inosine monophosphate and aspartate. Although the enzyme is ubiquitous and well characterized in other kingdoms, no crystallographic studies on the fungal protein have been performed. Presented here are the expression, purification, crystallization and initial crystallographic analyses of cryptococcal adenylosuccinate synthetase. The crystals had the symmetry of space group P2(1)2(1)2(1) and diffracted to 2.2 Šresolution.

Gene duplication and deletion caused by over-replication at a fork barrier.

Replication fork stalling can provoke fork reversal to form a four-way DNA junction. This remodelling of the replication fork can facilitate repair, aid bypass of DNA lesions, and enable replication restart, but may also pose a risk of over-replication during fork convergence. We show that replication fork stalling at a site-specific barrier in fission yeast can induce gene duplication-deletion rearrangements that are independent of replication restart-associated template switching and Rad51-dependent multi-invasion. Instead, they resemble targeted gene replacements (TGRs), requiring the DNA annealing activity of Rad52, the 3'-flap nuclease Rad16-Swi10, and mismatch repair protein Msh2. We propose that excess DNA, generated during the merging of a canonical fork with a reversed fork, can be liberated by a nuclease and integrated at an ectopic site via a TGR-like mechanism. This highlights how over-replication at replication termination sites can threaten genome stability in eukaryotes.

Rad52's DNA annealing activity drives template switching associated with restarted DNA replication.

It is thought that many of the simple and complex genomic rearrangements associated with congenital diseases and cancers stem from mistakes made during the restart of collapsed replication forks by recombination enzymes. It is hypothesised that this recombination-mediated restart process transitions from a relatively accurate initiation phase to a less accurate elongation phase characterised by extensive template switching between homologous, homeologous and microhomologous DNA sequences. Using an experimental system in fission yeast, where fork collapse is triggered by a site-specific replication barrier, we show that ectopic recombination, associated with the initiation of recombination-dependent replication (RDR), is driven mainly by the Rad51 recombinase, whereas template switching, during the elongation phase of RDR, relies more on DNA annealing by Rad52. This finding provides both evidence and a mechanistic basis for the transition hypothesis.

Social mixing patterns within a South African township community: implications for respiratory disease transmission and control.

A prospective survey of social mixing patterns relevant to respiratory disease transmission by large droplets (e.g., influenza) or small droplet nuclei (e.g., tuberculosis) was performed in a South African township in 2010. A total of 571 randomly selected participants recorded the numbers, times, and locations of close contacts (physical/nonphysical) and indoor casual contacts met daily. The median number of physical contacts was 12 (interquartile range (IQR), 7-18), the median number of close contacts was 20 (IQR, 13-29), and the total number of indoor contacts was 30 (IQR, 12-54). Physical and close contacts were most frequent and age-associative in youths aged 5-19 years. Numbers of close contacts were 40% higher than in corresponding populations in industrialized countries (P < 0.001). This may put township communities at higher risk for epidemics of acute respiratory illnesses. Simulations of an acute influenza epidemic predominantly involved adolescents and young adults, indicating that control strategies should be directed toward these age groups. Of all contacts, 86.2% occurred indoors with potential exposure to respiratory droplet nuclei, of which 27.2%, 20.1%, 20.0%, and 8.0% were in transport, own household, crèche/school, and work locations, respectively. Indoor contact time was long in households and short during transport. High numbers of indoor contacts and intergenerational mixing in households and transport may contribute to exceptionally high rates of tuberculosis transmission reported in the community.

Delays in starting antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis accessing non-integrated clinical services in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: Delays in the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) are associated with increased mortality risk. We examined the timing of ART among patients receiving care provided by non-integrated TB and ART services in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: In an observational cohort study, we determined the overall time delay between starting treatment for TB and starting ART in patients treated in Gugulethu township between 2002 and 2008. For patients referred from TB clinics to the separate ART clinic, we quantified and identified risk factors associated with the two component delays between starting TB treatment, enrolment in the ART clinic and subsequent initiation of ART. RESULTS: Among 893 TB patients studied (median CD4 count, 81 cells/µL), the delay between starting TB treatment and starting ART was prolonged (median, 95 days; IQR = 49-155). Delays were shorter in more recent calendar periods and among those with lower CD4 cell counts. However, the median delay was almost three-fold longer for patients referred from separate TB clinics compared to patients whose TB was diagnosed in the ART clinic (116 days versus 41 days, respectively; P < 0.001). In the most recent calendar period, the proportions of patients with CD4 cell counts < 50 cells/µL who started ART within 4 weeks of TB diagnosis were 11.1% for patients referred from TB clinics compared to 54.6% of patients with TB diagnosed in the ART service (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Delays in starting ART were prolonged, especially for patients referred from separate TB clinics. Non-integration of TB and ART services is likely to be a substantial obstacle to timely initiation of ART.

The Bloom syndrome complex senses RPA-coated single-stranded DNA to restart stalled replication forks.

The Bloom syndrome helicase BLM interacts with topoisomerase IIIα (TOP3A), RMI1 and RMI2 to form the BTR complex, which dissolves double Holliday junctions to produce non-crossover homologous recombination (HR) products. BLM also promotes DNA-end resection, restart of stalled replication forks, and processing of ultra-fine DNA bridges in mitosis. How these activities of the BTR complex are regulated in cells is still unclear. Here, we identify multiple conserved motifs within the BTR complex that interact cooperatively with the single-stranded DNA (ssDNA)-binding protein RPA. Furthermore, we demonstrate that RPA-binding is required for stable BLM recruitment to sites of DNA replication stress and for fork restart, but not for its roles in HR or mitosis. Our findings suggest a model in which the BTR complex contains the intrinsic ability to sense levels of RPA-ssDNA at replication forks, which controls BLM recruitment and activation in response to replication stress.

Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contact Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings. METHODS: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings. RESULTS: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, but low-income settings were characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made. CONCLUSIONS: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. FUNDING: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission - a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys.

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings. Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings. Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made. Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Infectious diseases, particularly those caused by airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, spread by social contact, and understanding how people mix is critical in controlling outbreaks. To explore these patterns, researchers typically carry out large contact surveys. Participants are asked for personal information (such as gender, age and occupation), as well as details of recent social contacts, usually those that happened in the last 24 hours. This information includes, the age and gender of the contact, where the interaction happened, how long it lasted, and whether it involved physical touch. These kinds of surveys help scientists to predict how infectious diseases might spread. But there is a problem: most of the data come from high-income countries, and there is evidence to suggest that social contact patterns differ between places. Therefore, data from these countries might not be useful for predicting how infections spread in lower-income regions. Here, Mousa et al. have collected and combined data from 27 contact surveys carried out before the COVID-19 pandemic to see how baseline social interactions vary between high- and lower-income settings. The comparison revealed that, in higher-income countries, the number of daily contacts people made decreased with age. But, in lower-income countries, younger and older individuals made similar numbers of contacts and mixed with all age groups. In higher-income countries, more contacts happened at work or school, while in low-income settings, more interactions happened at home and people were also more likely to live in larger, intergenerational households. Mousa et al. also found that gender affected how long contacts lasted and whether they involved physical contact, both of which are key risk factors for transmitting airborne pathogens. These findings can help researchers to predict how infectious diseases might spread in different settings. They can also be used to assess how effective non-medical restrictions, like shielding of the elderly and workplace closures, will be at reducing transmissions in different parts of the world.