How to detect high-performing individuals and groups: Decision similarity predicts accuracy.

Distinguishing between high- and low-performing individuals and groups is of prime importance in a wide range of high-stakes contexts. While this is straightforward when accurate records of past performance exist, these records are unavailable in most real-world contexts. Focusing on the class of binary decision problems, we use a combined theoretical and empirical approach to develop and test a approach to this important problem. First, we use a general mathematical argument and numerical simulations to show that the similarity of an individual's decisions to others is a powerful predictor of that individual's decision accuracy. Second, testing this prediction with several large datasets on breast and skin cancer diagnostics, geopolitical forecasting, and a general knowledge task, we find that decision similarity robustly permits the identification of high-performing individuals and groups. Our findings offer a simple, yet broadly applicable, heuristic for improving real-world decision-making systems.

Evolution of a mitochondrial tRNA PHE gene in A. thaliana: import of cytosolic tRNA PHE into mitochondria.

Previously we have described a putative tRNATyr in Arabidopsis thaliana mitochondria, the sequence of which is different from that of other plant mitochondrial tRNATyr genes. We show here that this tRNATyr gene sequence is present in several copies in the mitochondrial genome of A. thaliana. One copy of these tRNATyr gene sequences, termed here tRNATyr-1, could encode a functional tRNA. Expression analysis has shown that the tRNATyr-1 gene is cotranscribed with the downstream tRNAGlu gene, and that the corresponding mature-sized tRNA is present in mitochondria. We also show that the native tRNATyr gene, similar to the mitochondrial tRNATyr genes found in plants, is present in the A. thaliana mitochondrial genome and expressed. The tRNATyr-1 gene has been previously suggested to be derived from a tRNAPhe gene sequence. We show here that, as a consequence, there is no tRNAPhe gene in the mitochondrial genome of A. thaliana and that a cytosolic tRNAPhe is imported in A. thaliana mitochondria.

The characterization of differential calcium signalling in tobacco guard cells.

Two novel approaches for the study of Ca2+-mediated signal transduction in stomatal guard cells are described. Stimulus-induced changes in guard-cell cytosolic Ca2+ ([Ca2+]cyt) were monitored using viable stomata in epidermal strips of a transgenic line of Nicotiana plumbaginifolia expressing aequorin (the proteinous luminescent reporter of Ca2+) and in a new transgenic line in which aequorin expression was targeted specifically to the guard cells. The results indicated that abscisic acid (ABA)-induced stomatal closure was accompanied by increases in [Ca2+]cyt in epidermal strips. In addition to ABA, mechanical and low-temperature signals directly affected stomatal behaviour, promoting rapid closure. Elevations of guard-cell [Ca2+]cyt play a key role in the transduction of all three stimuli. However, there were striking differences in the magnitude and kinetics of the three responses. Studies using Ca2+ channel blockers and the Ca2+ chelator EGTA further suggested that mechanical and ABA signals primarily mobilize Ca2+ from intracellular store(s), whereas the influx of extracellular Ca2+ is a key component in the transduction of low-temperature signals. These results illustrate an aspect of Ca2+ signalling whereby the specificity of the response is encoded by different spatial or kinetic Ca2+ elevations.

The calcium rhythms of different cell types oscillate with different circadian phases.

Transgenic tobacco (Nicotiana plumbaginifolia) seedlings containing the Ca(2+)-sensitive luminescent protein aequorin have been shown to exhibit circadian variations in cytosolic calcium. Concomitant measurements of cytosolic and nuclear calcium show that circadian variations in the cytoplasm are not expressed in the nucleus. To investigate whether all cells of transgenic seedlings contribute equally to circadian variations in cytosolic calcium, different promoters eliciting different expression patterns have been placed upstream of aequorin and used for transformation. The circadian peak occurred at different times in the three transgenic lines constructed. Luminescence imaging of these transgenic lines indicated that aequorin was differentially accumulated among the main tissues and cells of the seedlings and overcoat technology with applied epidermal strips indicated that the surface cell layers contribute the vast majority of luminescent light. We conclude that the Ca(2+) rhythmicities of cells and tissues oscillate with distinct differences in phase, that this might represent different underlying cellular control mechanisms and that these observations have significant implications for our understanding and study of Ca(2+) mediated signal transduction in plant cells.