Estimating disparities of prostate cancer burden and its attributable risk factors for males across the BRICS-plus, 1990-2019: A comparable study of key nations with emerging economies.

BACKGROUNDS: The study aimed to analyze epidemiology burden of male prostate cancer across the BRICS-plus, and identify potential risk factors by assessing the associations with age, period, birth cohorts and sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to assess long-term trends, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze these three effects on prostate cancer burden. Quantile regression was used to investigate the association between SDI and health outcomes. RESULTS: The higher incidence and mortality were observed in Mercosur and SACU regions, increasing trends were observed in prostate cancer incidence in almost all BRICS-plus countries (AAPC > 0), and EEU's grew by 24.31% (%AAPC range: -0.13-3.03). Mortality had increased in more than half of countries (AAPC > 0), and SACU grew by 1.82% (%AAPC range: 0.62-1.75). Incidence and mortality risk sharply increased with age across all BRICS-plus countries and globally, and the peak was reached in the age group 80-84 years. Rate ratio (RR) of incidence increased with birth cohorts in all BRICS-plus countries except for Kazakhstan where slightly decrease, while mortality RR decreased with birth cohort in most of BRICS-plus countries. SDI presented significantly positive associations with incidence in 50 percentiles. The deaths attributable to smoking declined in most of BRICS-plus nations, and many countries in China-ASEAN-FTA and EEU had higher values. CONCLUSION: Prostate cancer posed a serious public health challenge with an increasing burden among most of BRICS-plus countries. Age had significant effects on prostate cancer burden, and recent birth cohorts suffered from higher incidence risk. SDI presented a positive relationship with incidence, and the smoking-attributable burden was tremendous in China-ASEAN-FTA and EEU region. Secondary prevention should be prioritized in BRICS-plus nations, and health policies targeting important populations should be strengthened based on their characteristics and adaptability.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions. METHODS: We extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates. RESULTS: The number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas. CONCLUSIONS: Global secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective. METHODS: In this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries. RESULTS: Compared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: - 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: - 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

The trend in delayed childbearing and its potential consequences on pregnancy outcomes: a single center 9-years retrospective cohort study in Hubei, China.

BACKGROUND: Due to the advancement of modern societies, the proportion of women who delay childbearing until or beyond 30 years has dramatically increased in the last three decades and has been linked with adverse maternal-neonatal outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine the trend in delayed childbearing and its negative impact on pregnancy outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A tertiary hospital-based retrospective study was conducted in Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Hubei Province, China, during the years 2011-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to find a trend in the delayed childbearing and the multiple binary logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between maternal age and pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2019, the trend in advanced maternal age (AMA ≥35 years) increased by 75% [AAPC 7.5% (95% CI: - 10.3, 28.9)]. Based on maternal education and occupation, trend in AMA increased by 130% [AAPC 11.8% (95% CI: 1.1, 23.7)] in women of higher education level, and 112.5% [AAPC 10.1% (95% CI: 9.4, 10.9)] in women of professional services. After adjusting for confounding factors, AMA was significantly associated with increased risk of gestational hypertension (aOR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.1), preeclampsia (aOR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4, 1.9), sever preeclampsia (aOR 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.6), placenta previa (aOR 1.8; 95% CI: 1.5, 2.2), gestational diabetes mellitus (aOR 2.5; 95% CI: 2.3, 2.9), preterm births (aOR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4, 1.7), perinatal mortality (aOR 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.3), and low birth weight (aOR 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4) compared with women aged < 30 years. CONCLUSION: Our findings show a marked increase in delayed childbearing and its negative association with pregnancy outcomes.

Demographics of road injuries and micromobility injuries among China, India, Japan, and the United States population: evidence from an age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Micromobility sharing platforms have involved skyrocketing numbers of users in multiple countries since 2010. However, few studies have examined the overall impact of the growing micromobility market on road injuries. METHOD: We use road injury data from the Global Burden of Disease Study database to examine the effect of age, period, and cohort on micromobility injury-related deaths and incidence. We compared four countries that vary in demographic background and road infrastructure. By comparing the countries, we analyzed the relationship between the trends in road injuries and these factors. RESULTS: We found an overall upward trend in micromobility injuries. A higher risk of micromobility-related injuries was witnessed in China and the US in 2015-2019, and people older than 45 showed a growing micromobility-related mortality and incidence rate in China, India, and the US. Cohorts after 1960 showed higher micromobility injury incidence risks in China and India, but the population born after 1990 in India showed a slightly lower risk compared to those before it. CONCLUSIONS: The boosted usage of micromobility devices explains these increasing trends. Road infrastructure and separated traffic ease the collisions from micromobility devices. The overall situation calls for improvement in legislation as well as road infrastructure.

Trend dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence among China and the U.S. adult population from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age-period-cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. RESULTS: The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990-2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990-2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

Effect of preeclampsia and premature rupture of membrane on neonatal birth weight and length by gestational age: A retrospective study in China.

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia (PE) and premature rupture of membrane (PROM) are considered significant risk factors for lower neonatal birth weight and birth length. However, very limited studies have reported the impact of PE and PROM on neonatal birth weight and birth length by gestational week. Therefore, we aimed to determine the effect of PE and PROM on neonatal birth weight and length by gestational age. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 9707 singleton neonates were selected for this study. All the data were collected and documented in the obstetric register by the trained nurses in the Gynecology and Obstetrics Department. RESULTS: The neonatal mean birth weights and birth lengths were statistically significantly (P < 0.05) lowered among preeclamptic mothers compared to mothers without PE throughout the gestational age. Statistically significantly (P < 0.05) lowered mean birth weights and birth lengths were found among neonates born to mothers with PROM than among neonates born to mothers without PROM by all gestational weeks except for 32 weeks and 36 weeks. Moreover, in a multiple linear regression model, PE and PROM were significantly negatively associated with neonatal birth weights and birth lengths by almost all gestational weeks (ß <0, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: We concluded that after adjustment for covariates and confounding factors, PE and PROM had a significantly negative association with neonatal birth weights and birth lengths by all gestational weeks.

A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach.

BACKGROUND: Precise predictions of incidence and mortality rates due to breast cancer (BC) are required for planning of public health programs as well as for clinical services. A number of approaches has been established for prediction of mortality using stochastic models. The performance of these models intensely depends on different patterns shown by mortality data in different countries. METHODS: The BC mortality data is retrieved from the Global burden of disease (GBD) study 2017 database. This study include BC mortality rates from 1990 to 2017, with ages 20 to 80+ years old women, for different Asian countries. Our study extend the current literature on Asian BC mortality data, on both the number of considered stochastic mortality models and their rigorous evaluation using multivariate Diebold-Marino test and by range of graphical analysis for multiple countries. RESULTS: Study findings reveal that stochastic smoothed mortality models based on functional data analysis generally outperform on quadratic structure of BC mortality rates than the other lee-carter models, both in term of goodness of fit and on forecast accuracy. Besides, smoothed lee carter (SLC) model outperform the functional demographic model (FDM) in case of symmetric structure of BC mortality rates, and provides almost comparable results to FDM in within and outside data forecast accuracy for heterogeneous set of BC mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Considering the SLC model in comparison to the other can be obliging to forecast BC mortality and life expectancy at birth, since it provides even better results in some cases. In the current situation, we can assume that there is no single model, which can truly outperform all the others on every population. Therefore, we also suggest generating BC mortality forecasts using multiple models rather than relying upon any single model.

Correlation of MLH1 polymorphisms, survival statistics, in silico assessment and gene downregulation with clinical outcomes among breast cancer cases.

This study aimed to investigate the role of MLH1 polymorphisms, respective protein structure prediction, survival analysis, related clinicopathological details and MLH1 expression in breast cancer (BC). Genotyping of selected SNPs in BC patients (493) and age matched controls (387) were performed by Tetra-ARMS PCR. Gene expression among breast tumors (127) and adjacent control tissues were analysed using reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) and immunohistochemistry. Statistical analysis was performed by SPSS and MedCalc. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied to compute the odds ratio and confidence interval. Phyre2 and I-TASSER were used to generate MLH1 protein structures and verified by a variety of computational tools. Genotyping illustrated that MLH1 polymorphisms (rs63749795 and rs63749820) were significantly associated (P ≤ 0.05) with risk of developing BC. Down regulation of MLH1 gene expression/loss of the MLH1 protein (OR 12; CI 2.8-53.1) was observed in BC cases, illustrating its potential role in disease development. Moreover, loss of the MLH1 protein was found to be associated with higher grade cancer (P = 0.02) and lymph node positivity (P = 0.03), highlighting its essential role, as a component of the mismatch repair (MMR) machinery. Bioinformatics analysis confirmed that nonsense mutations produce a truncated MLH1 protein, causing a reduction in MMR efficiency. No association between MLH1 polymorphisms and overall and progression free survival statistics was observed among BC cases, possibly due to short follow-up study. Results at DNA, RNA and protein levels, along with in silico analysis, highlights the potential role of MLH1 in DNA repair mechanisms, within BC. Therefore, it was concluded that MLH1 may contribute towards BC development and progression.

Age-period-cohort analysis of kidney cancer deaths attributable to high body-mass index in China and U.S. adults.

BACKGROUND: Statistical data on burden of kidney cancer and the relavant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. This study aims to estimate kidney cancer deaths and high body-mass index (BMI) attributable to the deaths by gender and age group in China adults, compared with U.S. METHODS: We extracted kidney cancer data (1990-2017) about the age-standardized rates using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We performed an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to estimate trends of kidney cancer mortality attributable to high BMI. RESULTS: During 1990-2017, age-standardized mortality rate of kidney cancer was increasing in China but decreasing in U.S. The mortality attributable to high BMI in China showed a general increasing trend, while that in U.S. men was increasing and tended to be stable in women since 1995. APC analysis showed a similar pattern of age effect between China and U.S. adults, which substantially increased from 20 to 24 to 90-94 age group. Differently, the period effect rapidly increased in China than U.S. adults during 1990-2017. The cohort effect peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1902-1906 in China, and it declined consistently in U.S. with exception of 1902-1906 and 1907-1911 birth cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The kidney cancer deaths attributable to high BMI, and period effect have been generally increasing in China adults, compared with U.S. adults in which the trend tends to be stable in recent years. The rapid aging may also intensify the increasing trend of kidney cancer death in China. Effective measures should be conducted on body weight control and care for kidney cancer prevention.

Hypertension associated risk factors in Pakistan: A multifactorial case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To shed light on the association of age, smoking, educational status, family history, diabetes and kidney diseases with hypertension. METHODS: The case-control study was conducted at three different medical centres of Rawalpindi, Pakistan, from December 2016 to July 2017. Data from 549 hypertensive cases and 1451 normotensive controls was collected using a detailed questionnaire and through personal interviews by adopting nonprobability consecutive sampling technique. Overall 2000 adult individuals, both males and females excluding pregnant women, were the part of this study. Those with blood pressure ≥140/90mmHg and taking anti-hypertensive treatment were designated as the cases, while the rest were taken as normotensive controls. Blood pressure was measured by a physician. Multivariate logistics regression analysis was used to estimate the association of various different risk factors with hypertension. All the analysis was performed using software R 3.4.2 and SPSS 24. RESULTS: Of the 2,000 subjects, 549(27.45%) were hypertensive cases and 1451(72.55%) were normotensive controls. Mean age of the cases was 43.32}9.7 years and it was 31.8}10.1 years among the normotensives. Higher age, smoking, lower educational status, presence of kidney diseases, diabetes and family history of hypertension were significantly associated with hypertension (p<0.01 each). CONCLUSIONS: In Pakistani population, age, smoking, illiteracy, kidney diseases, diabetes and family history were found to be associated with hypertension.

An insight into clinical outcome of XPG polymorphisms in breast cancer.

XPG polymorphisms are associated with varied clinical outcomes in different cancers but up-till now no study has been reported on breast cancer. Therefore, current study was aimed to explore the association of breast cancer risk factors and XPG polymorphisms (rs2296147 and rs1047768). It also investigated impact of XPG variants on overall survival and progression free survival among breast cancer cases. A total of 493 histopathologically identified breast cancer cases and 387 healthy females were genotyped by ARMS-PCR. Relationship between general characteristics, XPG polymorphisms and breast cancer risk was accessed by conditional logistic regression and illustrated by OR and 95% CI. Kaplan Meier test was applied to estimate survival distributions whereas log rank test demonstrated survival differences. Association of XPG variants with OS and PFS in breast cancer was illustrated by HR and 95% CI. Early onset of menopause, consanguinity and family history contributed (P < 0.05) towards breast cancer development. Both rs2296147 and rs1047768 SNPs were found to be associated (P < 0.05) with the risk of breast cancer. XPG rs1047768 was significantly associated with decreased PFS (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.0-2.8) in breast cancer cases (P = 0.013) which was demonstrated by median time of 26 months for T > C variant when compared with median time of 37 months for TT genotype. No association was found between XPG rs2296147 polymorphism and survival analysis among breast cancer cases. XPG (rs1047768 T > C) variant may play a significant role in terms of decreased PFS and could be used as a predictor of unfavourable prognosis among breast cancer.

Measuring central percentiles of blood pressure levels among adults in Pakistan: A case study of Rawalpindi.

The prevalence pattern of hypertension (HTN) in developing countries is different from that in the developed countries. In Pakistan, the percentage of hypertensive patients has been growing since last two decades. Various factors might have contributed to this rising trend like, age, body mass index (BMI), lack of physical activity, family history of HTN and smoking etc. In this study, we examine prevalence of HTN in Rawalpindi district of Pakistan using the Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC 8) criteria, with the aim to measure central percentiles of blood pressure (BP) depending on different stated factors. For this purpose, quantile regression is used. A cross-sectional study including 2000 volunteer adults was designed. The data were obtained about systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), gender, age, weight height, family history of HTN, physical activity, presence of any kidney disease and diabetic status etc. Quantile regression was used to estimate the central percentiles of SBP and DBP. The present study concludes that the central percentiles of BP reflect alarming situation as half of the adults fall into either pre-hypertensive or hypertensive category and thus, some special awareness program about HTN should frequently be organized.

Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on cardiovascular diseases burden attributable to ambient air pollution across BRICS.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution raises the risk of deaths and morbidity worldwide. From 1990 to 2019, we observed the epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on the cardiovascular diseases (CVD) burden attributable to ambient air pollution across Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The number of CVD deaths related to ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution increased nearly fivefold in China [5.0% (95% CI 4.7, 5.2)] and India [5.7% (95% CI 5.1, 6.3)] during the study period. The age-standardized CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to ambient PM pollution significantly increased in India and China but decreased in Brazil and Russia. Due to air pollution, the relative risk (RR) of premature CVD mortality (< 70 years) was higher in Russia [RR 12.6 (95% CI 8.7, 17.30)] and India [RR 9.2 (95% CI 7.6, 11.20)]. A higher period risk (2015-2019) for CVD deaths was found in India [RR 1.4 (95% CI 1.4, 1.4)] followed by South Africa [RR 1.3 (95% CI 1.3, 1.3)]. Across the BRICS countries, the RR of CVD mortality markedly decreased from the old birth cohort to young birth cohorts. In conclusion, China and India showed an increasing trend of CVD mortality and morbidity due to ambient PM pollution and higher risk of premature CVD deaths were observed in Russia and India.

Comparative effectiveness of antihypertensive monotherapies in primary prevention of cardiovascular events-a real-world longitudinal inception cohort study.

Introduction: Antihypertensive drugs are used preventatively to lower the risk of cardiovascular disease events. Comparative effectiveness studies on angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), beta-blockers (BBs), calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and thiazides have yielded inconsistent results and given little consideration to patient adherence. Using a longitudinal cohort and considering time-varying adherence and confounding factors, we aimed to estimate the real-world effectiveness of five major antihypertensive drug monotherapies in the primary prevention of cardiovascular events. Methods: Eligible patients for a retrospective inception cohort study were selected using information obtained from the University of Groningen IADB.nl pharmacy prescription database. Cohort 1 comprised adherent patients with a follow-up time exceeding 1 year, and cohort 2 comprised all patients independent of adherence. The exposures were ACEIs, ARBs, BBs, CCBs, and thiazides. The primary outcome was the time to the first prescription for an acute cardiac drug therapy (CDT) measured using valid drug proxies to identify the first major cardiovascular event. A per-protocol analytical approach was adopted with inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW), time-varying Cox regression analysis to obtain the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: In cohort 1 (n = 22,441), 1,294 patients (5.8%) were prescribed an acute CDT with an average follow-up time of 4.2 ± 2.8 years. Following IPTW, the hazard measures of ARBs and thiazides were lower than those of BBs (HRs: 0.79 and 0.80, respectively; 95% CIs: 0.64-0.97 and 0.69-0.94, respectively). Among drug-treated diabetic patients, the hazard measures were even lower, with HR point estimates of 0.43 (CI: 0.19-0.98) for ARBs and 0.32 (CI: 0.13-0.82) for thiazides. In cohort 2 (n = 33,427) and sensitivity analysis, the comparative effectiveness results for thiazides and BBs were similar to those for cohort 1. Conclusion: The findings of this real-world analysis suggest that the incidence of CDT associated with long-term thiazide or ARB monotherapy is lower than the incidence of CDT with BBs, notably among high-risk patients. Incidences of CDT associated with ACEIs and CCBs were comparable relative to those associated with BBs.

Epidemiological trend and age-period-cohort effects on cardiovascular disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years attributable to dietary risks and high body mass index at the regional and country level across China and Pakistan.

Background: Modifiable risk factors are major drivers of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine the epidemiological trend and age-period-cohort effects on CVD burden attributable to dietary risks and high body mass index (BMI) across China and Pakistan from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Data on the all-ages and age-specific CVD burden, age-standardized CVD mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to find temporal trends and age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on CVD burden. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD burden attributable to dietary risks and high BMI increased by ~2-3-fold in China and by 3-5-fold in Pakistan. The diet-related CVD age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate significantly decreased in China but increased in Pakistan. Both countries showed a marked increasing trend of CVD ASMR and the age-standardized DALYs rate attributable to high BMI. Taiwan in China showed a remarkable reduction in CVD burden. However, in Pakistan, all regions observed a significantly increasing trend of CVD burden attributable to modifiable risk factors. A higher risk ratio of premature CVD mortality (<70 years) was observed among Chinese attributable to high BMI and among Pakistani attributable to dietary risks. In China, early birth cohorts showed a higher risk ratio and recent birth cohorts experienced a lower risk ratio of CVD burden compared with Pakistan. Conclusion: In conclusion, dietary risks and high BMI caused a huge CVD burden across China and Pakistan.

Evaluation of Lee-Carter model to breast cancer mortality prediction in China and Pakistan.

Background: Precise breast cancer-related mortality forecasts are required for public health program and healthcare service planning. A number of stochastic model-based approaches for predicting mortality have been developed. The trends shown by mortality data from various diseases and countries are critical to the effectiveness of these models. This study illustrates the unconventional statistical method for estimating and predicting the mortality risk between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan using the Lee-Carter model. Methods: Longitudinal death data for female breast cancer from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study database were used to compare statistical approach between early-onset (age group, 25-49 years) and screen-age/late-onset (age group, 50-84 years) population. We evaluated the model performance both within (training period, 1990-2010) and outside (test period, 2011-2019) data forecast accuracy using the different error measures and graphical analysis. Finally, using the Lee-Carter model, we predicted the general index for the time period (2011 to 2030) and derived corresponding life expectancy at birth for the female breast cancer population using life tables. Results: Study findings revealed that the Lee-Carter approach to predict breast cancer mortality rate outperformed in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset population in terms of goodness of fit and within and outside forecast accuracy check. Moreover, the trend in forecast error was decreasing gradually in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan. Furthermore, we observed that this approach had provided almost comparable results between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset population in forecast accuracy for more varying mortality behavior over time like in Pakistan. Both the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset populations in Pakistan were expected to have an increase in breast cancer mortality by 2030. whereas, for China, it was expected to decrease in the early-onset population. Conclusion: The Lee-Carter model can be used to estimate breast cancer mortality and so to project future life expectancy at birth, especially in the screen-age/late-onset population. As a result, it is suggested that this approach may be useful and convenient for predicting cancer-related mortality even when epidemiological and demographic disease data sets are limited. According to model predictions for breast cancer mortality, improved health facilities for disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are required to reduce the disease's future burden, particularly in less developed countries.

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian nations make up the BRICS-Plus, a group of developing countries that account for about half of the world's population and contribute significantly to the global illness burden. This study aimed to analyzed the epidemiological burden of female breast cancer (BC) across the BRICS-Plus from 1990 to 2019 and studied the associations with age, period, birth cohort and countries' sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: The BC mortality and incidence estimates came from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated cohort and period effects in BC outcomes between 1990 and 2019 using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling. The maximum likelihood (ML) of the APC-model Poisson with log (Y) based on the natural-spline function was used to estimate the rate ratio (RR). We used annualized rate of change (AROC) to quantify change over the previous 30 years in BC across BRICS-Plus and compare it to the global. Results: In 2019, there were about 1.98 million female BC cases (age-standardized rate of 45.86 [95% UI: 41.91, 49.76]) and 0.69 million deaths (age-standardized rate of 15.88 [95% UI: 14.66, 17.07]) around the globe. Among them, 45.4% of incident cases and 51.3% of deaths were attributed to the BRICS-Plus. China (41.1% cases and 26.5% deaths) and India (16.1% cases and 23.1% deaths) had the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths among the BRICS-Plus nations in 2019. Pakistan came in third with 5.6% cases and 8.8% deaths. Over the past three decades, from 1990 to 2019, the BRICS-Plus region's greatest AROC was seen in Lesotho (2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99). The birth cohort impacts on BC vary significantly among the BRICS-Plus nations. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tended to decline in all BRICS-Plus nations, notably in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China-ASEAN FTA) countries, and the drop in risk in the most recent cohort was lowest in China and the Maldives. Additionally, there was a substantial negative link between SDI and case fatality rate (r1990= -0.91, p<0.001; r2019= -0.89, p<0.001) in the BRICS-Plus in both 1990 and 2019, with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) nations having the highest case fatality rate. Conclusions: The BC burden varies remarkably between different BRICS-Plus regions. Although the BRICS' efforts to regulate BC succeeded, the overall improvements lagged behind those in high-income Asia-Pacific nations. Every BRICS-Plus country should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies directed at different priority groups, according to BRIC-Plus and other high-burden nations.

Risk assessment of dietary factors in global pattern of ischemic heart disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years over 30 years.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by dietary factors, as well as the influencing factors with age, period, and cohort effects, in regions with different social-demographic status from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We extracted data on IHD mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) related to dietary risks from 1990 to 2019 as IHD burden measures. Hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze age- and time-related trends and the interaction between different dietary factors on the risk of IHD mortality and DALYs. Results: Globally, there were 9.2 million IHD deaths and 182 million DALYs in 2019. Both the ASRs of death and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2019 (percentage change: -30.8% and -28.6%, respectively), particularly in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) areas. Low-whole-grain, low-legume, and high-sodium diets were the three main dietary factors that increased the risk of IHD burden. Advanced age [RR (95%CI): 1.33 (1.27, 1.39)] and being male [1.11 (1.06, 1.16)] were independent risk factors for IHD mortality worldwide and in all SDI regions. After controlling for age effects, IHD risk showed a negative period effect overall. Poor diets were positively associated with increased risk of death but were not yet statistically significant. Interactions between dietary factors and advanced age were observed in all regions after adjusting for related variables. In people aged 55 and above, low intake of whole grains was associated with an increased risk of IHD death [1.28 (1.20, 1.36)]. DALY risks showed a similar but more obvious trend. Conclusion: IHD burden remains high, with significant regional variations. The high IHD burden could be attributed to advanced age, sex (male), and dietary risk factors. Dietary habits in different SDI regions may have varying effects on the global burden of IHD. In areas with lower SDI, it is recommended to pay more attention to dietary problems, particularly in the elderly, and to consider how to improve dietary patterns in order to reduce modifiable risk factors.