Epidemiology-driven approaches to surveillance in HPAI-vaccinated poultry flocks aiming to demonstrate freedom from circulating HPAIV.

Incursion pressure of high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) by secondary spread among poultry holdings and/or from infected migratory wild bird populations increases worldwide. Vaccination as an additional layer of protection of poultry holdings using appropriately matched vaccines aims at reducing clinical sequelae of HPAIV infection, disrupting HPAIV transmission, curtailing economic losses and animal welfare problems and cutting exposure risks of zoonotic HPAIV at the avian-human interface. Products derived from HPAIV-vaccinated poultry should not impose any risk of virus spread or exposure. Vaccination can be carried out with zero-tolerance for infection in vaccinated herds and must then be flanked by appropriate surveillance which requires tailoring at several levels: (i) Controlling appropriate vaccination coverage and adequate population immunity in individual flocks and across vaccinated populations; (ii) assessing HPAI-infection trends in unvaccinated and vaccinated parts of the poultry population to provide early detection of new/re-emerged HPAIV outbreaks; and (iii) proving absence of HPAIV circulation in vaccinated flocks ideally by real time-monitoring. Surveillance strategies, i.e. selecting targets, tools and random sample sizes, must be accommodated to the specific epidemiologic and socio-economic background. Methodological approaches and practical examples from three countries or territories applying AI vaccination under different circumstances are reviewed here.

Genetic Diversity of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8/H5N5) Viruses in Italy, 2016-17.

In winter 2016-17, highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) and A(H5N5) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 were identified in wild and domestic birds in Italy. We report the occurrence of multiple introductions and describe the identification in Europe of 2 novel genotypes, generated through multiple reassortment events.

Emergence of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus from a low-pathogenic progenitor.

UNLABELLED: Avian influenza (AI) viruses of the H7 subtype have the potential to evolve into highly pathogenic (HP) viruses that represent a major economic problem for the poultry industry and a threat to global health. However, the emergence of HPAI viruses from low-pathogenic (LPAI) progenitor viruses currently is poorly understood. To investigate the origin and evolution of one of the most important avian influenza epidemics described in Europe, we investigated the evolutionary and spatial dynamics of the entire genome of 109 H7N1 (46 LPAI and 63 HPAI) viruses collected during Italian H7N1 outbreaks between March 1999 and February 2001. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the LPAI and HPAI epidemics shared a single ancestor, that the HPAI strains evolved from the LPAI viruses in the absence of reassortment, and that there was a parallel emergence of mutations among HPAI and later LPAI lineages. Notably, an ultradeep-sequencing analysis demonstrated that some of the amino acid changes characterizing the HPAI virus cluster were already present with low frequency within several individual viral populations from the beginning of the LPAI H7N1 epidemic. A Bayesian phylogeographic analysis revealed stronger spatial structure during the LPAI outbreak, reflecting the more rapid spread of the virus following the emergence of HPAI. The data generated in this study provide the most complete evolutionary and phylogeographic analysis of epidemiologically intertwined high- and low-pathogenicity viruses undertaken to date and highlight the importance of implementing prompt eradication measures against LPAI to prevent the appearance of viruses with fitness advantages and unpredictable pathogenic properties. IMPORTANCE: The Italian H7 AI epidemic of 1999 to 2001 was one of the most important AI outbreaks described in Europe. H7 viruses have the ability to evolve into HP forms from LP precursors, although the mechanisms underlying this evolutionary transition are only poorly understood. We combined epidemiological information, whole-genome sequence data, and ultradeep sequencing approaches to provide the most complete characterization of the evolution of HPAI from LPAI viruses undertaken to date. Our analysis revealed that the LPAI viruses were the direct ancestors of the HPAI strains and identified low-frequency minority variants with HPAI mutations that were present in the LPAI samples. Spatial analysis provided key information for the design of effective control strategies for AI at both local and global scales. Overall, this work highlights the importance of implementing rapid eradication measures to prevent the emergence of novel influenza viruses with severe pathogenic properties.

Human and entomological surveillance of West Nile fever, dengue and chikungunya in Veneto Region, Italy, 2010-2012.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010 Veneto region (North-Eastern Italy) planned a special integrated surveillance of summer fevers to promptly identify cases of West Nile Fever (WNF), dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV). The objectives of this study were (i) To increase the detection rate of imported CHIKV and DENV cases in travellers from endemic areas and promptly identify potential autochthonous cases.(ii) To detect autochthonous cases of WNF, besides those of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease (WNND) that were already included in a national surveillance. METHODS: Human surveillance: a traveler who had returned within the previous 15 days from endemic countries, with fever >38°C, absence of leucocytosis (leukocyte count <10,000 µL), and absence of other obvious causes of fever, after ruling out malaria, was considered a possible case of CHIKV or DENV. A possible autochthonous case of WNF was defined as a patient with fever >38°C for <7 days, no recent travel history and absence of other obvious causes of fever. Entomologic surveillance: for West Nile (WNV) it was carried out from May through November placing CDC-CO2 traps in five provinces of Veneto Region, while for DENV and CHIKV it was also performed around residences of viremic cases. RESULTS: Human surveillance: between 2010 and 2012, 234 patients with fever after travelling were screened, of which 27 (11,5%) were found infected (24 with DENV and 3 with CHIKV). No autochthonous case of DENV or CHIKV was detected. Autochthonous patients screened for WNF were 408, and 24 (5,9%) were confirmed cases. Entomologic surveillance: the WNV was found in 10, 2 and 11 pools of Culex pipiens from 2010 to 2012 respectively, in sites of Rovigo, Verona, Venezia and Treviso provinces). No infected Aedes albopictus with DENV or CHIKV was found. CONCLUSIONS: Veneto is the only Italian region reporting WNV human cases every year since 2008. WNV is likely to cause sporadic cases and unforeseeable outbreaks for decades. Including WNF in surveillance provides additional information and possibly an early alert system. Timely detection of DENV and CHIKV should prompt vector control measures to prevent local outbreaks.

Study of the Interface between Wild Bird Populations and Poultry and Their Potential Role in the Spread of Avian Influenza.

Water birds play a crucial role in disseminating and amplifying avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in the environment. However, they may have limited interactions with domestic facilities, raising the hypothesis that other wild birds may play the bridging role in introducing AIVs into poultry. An ornithocoenosis study, based on census-transect and camera-trapping methods, was conducted in 2019 in ten poultry premises in northeast Italy to characterize the bird communities and envisage the species that might act as bridge hosts for AIVs. The data collected were explored through a series of multivariate analyses (correspondence analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling), and biodiversity indices (observed and estimated richness, Shannon entropy and Pielou's evenness). The analyses revealed a high level of complexity in the ornithic population, with 147 censused species, and significant qualitative and quantitative differences in wild bird species composition, both in space and in time. Among these, only a few were observed in close proximity to the farm premises (i.e., Magpies, Blackbirds, Cattle Egrets, Pheasants, Eurasian Collared Doves, and Wood Pigeons), thus suggesting their potential role in spilling over AIVs to poultry; contrarily, waterfowls appeared to be scarcely inclined to close visits, especially during autumn and winter seasons. These findings stress the importance of ongoing research on the wild-domestic bird interface, advocating for a wider range of species to be considered in AIVs surveillance and prevention programs.

Integration of Epidemiological and Genomic Data to Investigate H5N1 HPAI Outbreaks in Northern Italy in 2021-2022.

Between October 2021 and April 2022, 317 outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were notified in poultry farms in the northeastern Italian regions. The complete genomes of 214 strains were used to estimate the genetic network based on the similarity of the viruses. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was used to assess the effect of 'at-risk contacts', 'same owners', 'in-bound/out-bound risk windows overlap', 'genetic differences', 'geographic distances', 'same species', and 'poultry company' on the probability of observing a link within the genetic network, which can be interpreted as the potential propagation of the epidemic via lateral spread or a common source of infection. The variables 'same poultry company' (Est. = 0.548, C.I. = [0.179; 0.918]) and 'risk windows overlap' (Est. = 0.339, C.I. = [0.309; 0.368]) were associated with a higher probability of link formation, while the 'genetic differences' (Est. = -0.563, C.I. = [-0.640; -0.486]) and 'geographic distances' (Est. = -0.058, C.I. = [-0.078; -0.038]) indicated a reduced probability. The integration of epidemiological data with genomic analyses allows us to monitor the epidemic evolution and helps to explain the dynamics of lateral spreads casting light on the potential diffusion routes. The 2021-2022 epidemic stresses the need to further strengthen the biosecurity measures, and to encourage the reorganization of the poultry production sector to minimize the impact of future epidemics.

An integrated system for the management of environmental data to support veterinary epidemiology.

Environmental and climatic fluctuations can greatly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases of veterinary concern, or interfere with the implementation of relevant control measures. Including environmental and climatic aspects in epidemiological studies could provide policy makers with new insights to assign resources for measures to prevent or limit the spread of animal diseases, particularly those with zoonotic potential. The ever-increasing number of technologies and tools permits acquiring environmental data from various sources, including ground-based sensors and Satellite Earth Observation (SEO). However, the high heterogeneity of these datasets often requires at least some basic GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and/or coding skills to use them in further analysis. Therefore, the high availability of data does not always correspond to widespread use for research purposes. The development of an integrated data pre-processing system makes it possible to obtain information that could be easily and directly used in subsequent epidemiological analyses, supporting both research activities and the management of disease outbreaks. Indeed, such an approach allows for the reduction of the time spent on searching, downloading, processing and validating environmental data, thereby optimizing available resources and reducing any possible errors directly related to data collection. Although multitudes of free services that allow obtaining SEO data exist nowadays (either raw or pre-processed through a specific coding language), the availability and quality of information can be sub-optimal when dealing with very small scale and local data. In fact, some information sets (e.g., air temperature, rainfall), usually derived from ground-based sensors (e.g., agro-meteo station), are managed, processed and redistributed by agencies operating on a local scale which are often not directly accessible by the most common free SEO services (e.g., Google Earth Engine). The EVE (Environmental data for Veterinary Epidemiology) system has been developed to acquire, pre-process and archive a set of environmental information at various scales, in order to facilitate and speed up access by epidemiologists, researchers and decision-makers, also accounting for the integration of SEO information with locally sensed data.

Rapid spread of a new West Nile virus lineage 1 associated with increased risk of neuroinvasive disease during a large outbreak in northern Italy, 2022: One Health analysis.

BACKGROUND: A new strain of WNV lineage 1 (WNV - 1) emerged in the Veneto Region, northern Italy, in 2021, eight years after the last outbreak of WNV - 1 in Italy. The virus, which co-circulates with WNV-2, has become endemic in the Region, where, in 2022, most human cases of neuroinvasive disease (WNND) reported in Europe have occurred. METHODS: Comparative analysis of the epidemiology and clinical presentation of WNV-1 and WNV-2 infection in humans, as well as the temporal and geographic distribution of WNV-1 and WNV-2 among wild birds and Culex pipiens mosquitoes in Veneto, from May 16th to August 21st, 2022, to determine if the high number of WNND cases was associated with WNV-1. RESULTS: As of August 21st, 2022, 222 human cases of WNV infection were confirmed by molecular testing, including 103 with fever (WNF) and 119 with WNND. WNV lineage was determined in 201 (90.5%) cases, comprising 138 WNV-1 and 63 WNV-2 infections. During the same period, 35 blood donors tested positive, including 30 in whom WNV lineage was determined (13 WNV-1 and 17 WNV-2). Comparative analysis of the distribution of WNV-1 and WNV-2 infections among WNND cases, WNF cases and WNV-positive blood donors showed that patients with WNND were more likely to have WNV-1 infection than blood donors (odds ratio 3.44; 95% CI 95% 1.54 to 8.24; p = 0.0043). As observed in humans, in wild birds WNV-1 had higher infectious rate (IR) and showed a more rapid expansion than WNV-2. At variance, the distribution of the two lineages was more even in mosquitoes, but with a trend of rapid increase of WNV-1 IR over WNV-2. CONCLUSIONS: Comparative analysis of WNV-1 vs WNV-2 infection in humans, wild birds, and mosquitos showed a rapid expansion of WNV-1 and suggested that WNV-1 infected patients might have an increased risk to develop severe disease.

Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy.

Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016-17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north-eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic-temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird-mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife-domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long-distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human-mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.

Different environmental gradients associated to the spatiotemporal and genetic pattern of the H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Italy.

Comprehensive understanding of the patterns and drivers of avian influenza outbreaks is pivotal to inform surveillance systems and heighten nations' ability to quickly detect and respond to the emergence of novel viruses. Starting in early 2017, the Italian poultry sector has been involved in the massive H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic that spread in the majority of the European countries in 2016/2017. Eighty-three outbreaks were recorded in north-eastern Italy, where a densely populated poultry area stretches along the Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto regions. The confirmed cases, affecting both the rural and industrial sectors, depicted two distinct epidemic waves. We adopted a combination of multivariate statistics techniques and multi-model regression selection and inference, to investigate how environmental factors relate to the pattern of outbreaks diversity with respect to their spatiotemporal and genetic diversity. Results showed that a combination of eco-climatic and host density predictors were associated with the outbreaks pattern, and variation along gradients was noticeable among genetically and geographically distinct groups of avian influenza cases. These regional contrasts may be indicative of a different mechanism driving the introduction and spreading routes of the influenza virus in the domestic poultry population. This methodological approach may be extended to different spatiotemporal scale to foster site-specific, ecologically informed risk mitigating strategies.

Active Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in Wintering Waterbirds in Northeast Italy, 2020-2021.

The increasing involvement of wild waterfowl in H5 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (HPAIV) circulation continues to pose a threat to animal and public health worldwide. In winter 2020-2021, two field surveillance activities were carried out on a weekly basis, through virological and serological analyses, in 823 hunted and 521 trapped migratory aquatic birds in northeast Italy. Sixty Eurasian teals were recaptured several times, which allowed us to follow the progression of the HPAI H5 infection in naturally infected wild waterfowl. Oropharyngeal, cloacal, and feather swabs (OS, CS and FS) were collected from each duck and tested by real time rRT-PCR Type A influenza. The identified viruses were characterized and pathotyped by sequencing. Several viruses belonging to three different HPAI H5 subtypes were detected: H5N8, H5N5, and H5N1. High prevalence of infection with HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4b during November-December 2020 (up to 27.1%) was observed in captured Eurasian teals, while infection rates in hunted dabbling ducks, mainly Eurasian wigeons, showed the highest prevalence of infection in November 2020 (8.9%) and January 2021 (10.2%). All HPAI positive birds were also clinically healthy when recaptured weeks apart. The OS and FS showed the highest detection efficiency of HPAIV. Our results highlight that HPAI passive surveillance should be complemented by a targeted active surveillance to more efficiently detect novel HPAI viruses.

Mosquitoes of the Maculipennis complex in Northern Italy.

The correct identification of mosquito vectors is often hampered by the presence of morphologically indiscernible sibling species. The Maculipennis complex is one of these groups that include both malaria vectors of primary importance and species of low/negligible epidemiological relevance, of which distribution data in Italy are outdated. Our study was aimed at providing an updated distribution of Maculipennis complex in Northern Italy through the sampling and morphological/molecular identification of specimens from five regions. The most abundant species was Anopheles messeae (2032), followed by Anopheles maculipennis s.s. (418), Anopheles atroparvus (28) and Anopheles melanoon (13). Taking advantage of ITS2 barcoding, we were able to finely characterize tested mosquitoes, classifying all the Anopheles messeae specimens as Anopheles daciae, a taxon with debated rank to which we referred as species inquirenda (sp. inq.). The distribution of species was characterized by Ecological Niche Models (ENMs), fed by recorded points of presence. ENMs provided clues on the ecological preferences of the detected species, with An. daciae sp. inq. linked to stable breeding sites and An. maculipennis s.s. more associated to ephemeral breeding sites. We demonstrate that historical Anopheles malaria vectors are still present in Northern Italy.

Inter-annual variability of the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers affecting West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens population dynamics in northeastern Italy.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne infectious diseases (VBDs) represent a major public health concern worldwide. Among VBDs, West Nile virus (WNV) showed an increasingly wider spread in temperate regions of Europe, including Italy. During the last decade, WNV outbreaks have been recurrently reported in mosquitoes, horses, wild birds, and humans, showing great variability in the temporal and spatial distribution pattern. Due to the complexity of the environment-host-vector-pathogen interaction and the incomplete understanding of the epidemiological pattern of the disease, WNV occurrences can be difficult to predict. The analyses of ecological drivers responsible for the earlier WNV reactivation and transmission are pivotal; in particular, variations in the vector population dynamics may represent a key point of the recent success of WNV and, more in general, of the VBDs. METHODS: We investigated the variations of Culex pipiens population abundance using environmental, climatic and trapping data obtained over nine years (2010 to 2018) through the WNV entomological surveillance programme implemented in northeastern Italy. An information theoretic approach (IT-AICc) and model-averaging algorithms were implemented to examine the relationship between the seasonal mosquito population growth rates and both intrinsic (e.g. intraspecific competition) and extrinsic (e.g. environmental and climatic variables) predictors, to identify the most significant combinations of variables outlining the Cx. pipiens population dynamics. RESULTS: Population abundance (proxy for intraspecific competition) and length of daylight were the predominant factors regulating the mosquito population dynamics; however, other drivers encompassing environmental and climatic variables also had a significant impact, although sometimes counterintuitive and not univocal. The analyses of the single-year datasets, and the comparison with the results obtained from the overall model (all data available from 2010 to 2018), highlighted remarkable differences in coefficients magnitude, sign and significance. These outcomes indicate that different combinations of factors might have distinctive, and sometimes divergent, effects on mosquito population dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: A more realistic acquaintance of the intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms of mosquito population fluctuations in relation to continuous changes in environmental and climatic conditions is paramount to properly reinforce VBDs risk-based surveillance activities, to plan targeted density control measures and to implement effective early detection programmes.

Mycobacterium caprae in a dairy farm in Northeast Italy.

Veneto region, Northeast Italy, has been declared officially free from bovine tuberculosis since 2008, although the disease is sporadically detected in association with cattle trade. In September 2015, bovine tuberculosis was detected in a dairy cattle farm of the region, in a holding with 69 animals. The herd underwent single intradermal tuberculin testing as part of the regional surveillance plan, and 24 animals resulted positive. Mycobacterium caprae was evidenced in 22 samples, further genotyped by PCR-based assays, as Allgäu type. Epidemiological investigation reported that sixteen animals were introduced from an officially tuberculosis free Member State in previous years. Nevertheless, spoligotyping and multilocus variable tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) indicated that M. caprae was strictly related to the strain circulating in 2007-2009 in Trento province, although no at-risk contacts were described. M. caprae is a zoonotic pathogen and further analyses are warranted in order to control its spread and impact on public health and animal trade.

A new approach to outbreak management for bovine Cystic Echinococcosis cases in hypo-endemic areas.

Cystic Echinococcosis (CE) surveillance in Italy is based on detection of its larval stage (hydatic cysts) at the slaughterhouse. In northern Italy, a hypo-endemic area, local health authorities investigate each individual farm with positive animals to treat their dogs with cestocidal drugs, but this system is time-consuming and poorly effective for bovine farms. The study applied a new approach based on targeted epidemiological surveys in areas with aggregation of bovine CE cases, and compared the outcome with that of two control areas with farms individually investigated. The presence of territorial cluster of bovine farms with CE cases was investigated for 3 consecutive years (2013-2014-2015) in a high-risk area of Veneto Region (north-eastern Italy), using a spatial scan statistic. Epidemiological investigations, consisting of a questionnaire survey and canine faecal samples collection, were conducted in cluster and control areas. All faecal samples were analyzed for taeniids eggs and positive samples were sequenced and identified. In total, 99 farms were surveyed and 208 faecal samples were retrieved from dogs. Sixty-two farms (42 bovine and 20 sheep) were investigated in cluster areas and 37 farms (33 bovine and 4 sheep) in control areas. Based on the results of the cestode egg isolation procedure, 14 animals (6.7%) were positive to taeniid eggs. For molecular analysis, two dogs resulted positive to Echinococcus granulosus, and seven to Taenia hydatigena. Twelve positive dogs were found in targeted survey areas and ten of these dogs were shepherd dogs, belonging to transhumant sheep flocks known to pass in cluster areas. The new approach demonstrated to successfully identify the probable source of infection of CE positive bovines. Most of positive dogs belonged to transhumant flocks, underlining the importance to include shepherd dogs in the surveillance system for CE.

Avian influenza overview November 2018 - February 2019.

No human infections due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) or A(H5N6) viruses - detected in wild birds and poultry outbreaks in Europe - have been reported so far and the risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered very low. Between 16 November 2018 and 15 February 2019, two HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments in Bulgaria, two HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in wild birds in Denmark and one low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5N3) in captive birds in the Netherlands were reported in the European Union (EU). Genetic characterisation of the HPAI A(H5N6) viruses reveals that they cluster with the A(H5N6) viruses that have been circulating in Europe since December 2017. The wild bird species involved were birds of prey and were likely infected due to hunting or scavenging infected wild waterfowl. However, HPAI virus was not detected in other wild birds during this period. Outside the EU, two HPAI outbreaks were reported in poultry during the reporting period from western Russia. Sequence information on an HPAI A(H5N6) virus found in a common gull in western Russia in October 2018 suggests that the virus clusters within clade 2.3.4.4c and is closely related to viruses that transmitted zoonotically in China. An increasing number of outbreaks in poultry and wild birds in Asia, Africa and the Middle East was observed during the time period for this report. Currently there is no evidence of a new HPAI virus incursion from Asia into Europe. However, passive surveillance systems may not be sensitive enough if the prevalence or case fatality in wild birds is very low. Nevertheless, it is important to encourage and maintain a certain level of passive surveillance in Europe testing single sick or dead wild birds and birds of prey as they may be sensitive sentinel species for the presence of HPAI virus in the environment. A well-targeted active surveillance might complement passive surveillance to collect information on HPAI infectious status of apparently healthy wild bird populations.

Annual Report on surveillance for avian influenza in poultry and wild birds in Member States of the European Union in 2018.

Avian influenza (AI) is a viral infectious disease that affects all species of domestic and wild birds. The viruses causing this disease can be of high (HPAI) or low (LPAI) pathogenicity and represent a continuous threat to poultry in Europe. Council Directive 2005/94/EC requests EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Therefore, MSs and Switzerland have implemented surveillance programmes to yearly monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission, to collate, validate, analyse and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes. This is the first report produced under this mandate summarising the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2018. Overall 18,596 poultry establishments were sampled, of which 43 were seropositive for H5 AI and two for H7 AI. Seropositive establishments were found in 11 MSs, with the highest percentage of seropositive establishments being found in waterfowl gamebird, and geese and duck breeding establishments. A total of 9,145 dead/moribund wild birds were sampled, with 163 birds testing positive to HPAI virus H5N6. The infected birds were reported by eight MSs and were mostly found between January and April 2018. In this report, the wild bird species affected with HPAI are described and the strategy of targeted sampling is assessed. The crude odds ratio of HPAI detection as a function of the target species (species belonging to the list of target species versus species not belonging to the target list) is presented. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2018 are also discussed in relation to findings from previous years and current knowledge on the epidemiology of AI in Europe.

Avian influenza overview May - August 2018.

Between 16 May and 15 August 2018, three highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments and three HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in wild birds were reported in Europe. Three low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. Few HPAI and LPAI bird cases have been detected in this period of the year, in accordance with the seasonal expected pattern of LPAI and HPAI. There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N8) and A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe have caused any human infections. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. Several HPAI outbreaks in poultry were reported during this period from Russia. The presence of the A(H5N2) and A(H5N8) viruses in parts of Russia connected with fall migration routes of wild birds is of concern for possible introduction and spread with wild birds migrating to the EU. Although few AI outbreaks were observed in Africa, Asia and the Middle East during the reporting period, the probability of AI virus introductions from non-EU countries via wild birds particularly via the north-eastern route from Russia is increasing, as the fall migration of wild birds will start in the coming weeks. Further, the lower temperatures in autumn and winter may facilitate the environmental survival of avian influenza viruses potentially introduced to Europe.

Avian influenza overview August - November 2018.

Between 16 August and 15 November 2018, 14 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments in Bulgaria and seven HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks, one in captive birds in Germany and six in wild birds in Denmark and the Netherlands were reported in the European Union (EU). No human infection due to HPAI A(H5N8) and A(H5N6) viruses have been reported in Europe so far. Seroconversion of people exposed during outbreaks in Russia has been reported in one study. Although the risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low, appropriate personal protection measures of people exposed will reduce any potential risk. Genetic clustering of the viruses isolated from poultry in Bulgaria suggests three separate introductions in 2016 and a continuing circulation and transmission of these viruses within domestic ducks. Recent data from Bulgaria provides further indication that the sensitivity of passive surveillance of HPAI A(H5N8) in domestic ducks may be significantly compromised. Increased vigilance is needed especially during the periods of cold spells in winter when aggregations of wild birds and their movements towards areas with more favourable weather conditions may be encouraged. Two HPAI outbreaks in poultry were reported during this period from western Russia. Low numbers of HPAI outbreaks were observed in Africa and Asia, no HPAI cases were detected in wild birds in the time period relevant for this report. Although a few HPAI outbreaks were reported in Africa and Asia during the reporting period, the probability of HPAI virus introductions from non-EU countries via wild birds particularly via the north-eastern route from Russia is increasing, as the fall migration of wild birds from breeding and moulting sites to the wintering sites continues. Furthermore, the lower temperatures and ultraviolet radiation in winter can facilitate the environmental survival of any potential AI viruses introduced to Europe.

Avian influenza overview November 2017 - February 2018.

Between 16 November 2017 and 15 February 2018, one highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6) and five HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry holdings, two HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in captive birds and 22 HPAI A(H5N6) wild bird events were reported within Europe. There is a lower incursion of HPAI A(H5N6) in poultry compared to HPAI A(H5N8). There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe are associated with clades infecting humans. Clinical signs in ducks infected with HPAI A(H5N8) seemed to be decreasing, based on reports from Bulgaria. However, HPAI A(H5N8) is still present in Europe and is widespread in neighbouring areas. The majority of mortality events of wild birds from HPAIV A(H5) in this three-month period involved single birds. This indicates that the investigation of events involving single dead birds of target species is important for comprehensive passive surveillance for HPAI A(H5). Moreover, 20 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. The first human case due to avian influenza A(H7N4) was notified in China underlining the threat that newly emerging avian influenza viruses pose for transmission to humans. Close monitoring is required of the situation in Africa and the Middle East with regards to HPAI A(H5N1) and A(H5N8). Uncontrolled spread of virus and subsequent further genetic evolution in regions geographically connected to Europe may increase uncertainty and risk for further dissemination of virus. The risk of HPAI introduction from Third countries via migratory wild birds to Europe is still considered much lower for wild birds crossing the southern borders compared to birds crossing the north-eastern borders, whereas the introduction via trade is still very to extremely unlikely.