Understanding early uptake of PrEP by female sex workers in Zimbabwe.

Female sex workers (FSW) are prioritised for increased access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), although rates of uptake remain sub-optimal, particularly across Southern Africa. In the first two years of its availability in Zimbabwe, 37.1% of FSW in trial sites initiated PrEP and received at least one re-supply. We conducted a qualitative study on perceptions of PrEP among 19 early users selected from sites with varying rates of PrEP initiation. Narrative interviews examined the pathways taken by FSW from hearing about PrEP, through their decision to start taking it, and early experiences. FSW appreciated PrEP's introduction within familiar and trusted "friendly" services tailored for sex workers and valued positive encouragement from clinic staff and peers over negative influence from family members. They also found PrEP difficult to understand at first, and feared side effects and rare adverse complications described in information leaflets. While FSW identified individual strategies for remembering to take their medication, they also relied on structured peer adherence support, leading some FSW to actively promote the method to other FSW as "PrEP champions". Information on how early users experience a new prevention technology such as PrEP can inform design of interventions that leverage existing support structures and target key barriers.

Using a Programme Science approach to substantially reduce the risk of HIV transmission and acquisition in sex transactions among female sex workers in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: We used a Programme Science platform, to generate evidence to support the implementation of programmes for sex workers in Africa. Female sex workers are estimated to make up 1.6% (1.3%-1.8%) of the population of women aged 15-49 years in Zimbabwe. We highlight how programme science can be used to help distinguish between when, where and with whom programmes need to be implemented and discuss two case studies that exemplify implementing better (Case study 1 (1 June 2019-30 June 2021) Optimizing implementation of a risk differentiated microplanning intervention) and implementing differently (Case study 2 (1 October 2016-30 September 2022) Reorientating implementation of DREAMS for young women selling sex). METHODS: Zimbabwe's nationally scaled programme for sex workers was established in 2009 in partnership with sex workers to provide comprehensive services for sex workers and generate evidence for programme design, implementation and scale up. Since inception, comprehensive data have been collected from all sex workers seeking services. As the scope of service provision has expanded so has the scope of data collection and analysis. At enrolment, sex workers are assigned an alphanumeric unique identifier which links consultations within and across programme sites. We conduct descriptive analyses of the Key Population (KP) programme data to guide programme implementation and redesign, embedding programmatic qualitative enquiry as required. RESULTS: Two case studies describing different approaches to programme optimization are presented. In the first, an optimization exercise was used to strengthen programme implementation ensuring that the KP programme got back on track after SARS-COV-2. In the second, an in-depth review of research and programme data led to a re-orientation of the DREAMS programme to ensure that young women at the highest risk of HIV acquisition were enrolled and had access to DREAMS social support interventions in turn strengthening their uptake of HIV prevention. CONCLUSIONS: Optimizing and sustaining HIV care and treatment programmes requires effective delivery with sufficient scale and intensity for population impact. Our programme science approach guided the scale up of the KP programme in Zimbabwe, providing evidence to support strategy, implementation and ongoing management, and importantly helping us distinguish between when we needed to just implement, implement better or implement differently.

The effect on HIV transmission and cost-effectiveness of programmes for female sex workers in East, Central, and Southern Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: HIV prevalence and incidence has declined in East, Central, and Southern Africa (ECSA), but remains high among female sex workers (FSWs). Sex worker programmes have the potential to considerably increase access to HIV testing, prevention, and treatment. We aimed to quantify these improvements by modelling the potential effect of sex worker programmes at two different intensities on HIV incidence and key health outcomes, and assessed the programmes' potential cost-effectiveness in order to help inform HIV policy decisions. METHODS: Using a model previously used to review policy decisions in ECSA, we assumed a low-intensity sex worker programme had run from 2010 until 2023; this resulted in care disadvantages among FSWs being reduced, and also increased testing, condom use, and willingness to take pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). After 2023, three policy options were considered: discontinuation, continuation, and a scale-up of the programme to high-intensity, which would have a broader reach, and higher influences on condom use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, testing, and PrEP use. Outputs of the key outcomes (the percentage of FSWs who were diagnosed with HIV, on ART, and virally suppressed; the percentage of FSWs with zero condomless partners, and HIV incidence) were compared in 2030. The maximum cost for a sex worker programme to be cost-effective was calculated over a 50-year time period and in the context of 10 million adults. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a health-care perspective; costs and disability-adjusted life-years were both discounted to present US$ values at 3% per annum. FINDINGS: Compared with continuing a low-intensity sex worker programme until 2030, discontinuation of the programme was calculated to result in a lower percentage of FSWs diagnosed (median 88·75% vs 91·37%; median difference compared to continuation of a low-intensity programme [90% range] 2·03 [-4·49 to 10·98]), a lower percentage of those diagnosed currently taking ART (86·35% vs 88·89%; 2·38 [-3·69 to 13·42]), and a lower percentage of FSWs on ART with viral suppression (87·49% vs 88·96%; 1·17 [-6·81 to 11·53]). Discontinuation of a low-intensity programme also resulted in an increase in HIV incidence among FSWs from 5·06 per 100 person-years (100 p-y; 90% range 0·52 to 22·21) to 4·05 per 100 p-y (0·21 to 21·15). Conversely, comparing a high-intensity sex worker programme until 2030 with discontinuation of the programme resulted in a higher percentage of FSWs diagnosed (median 95·81% vs 88·75; median difference compared to discontinuation [90% range] 6·36 [0·60 to 18·63]), on ART (93·93 vs 86.35%; median difference 7·13 [-0·65 to 26·48]), and with viral suppression (93·21% vs 87·49; median difference 7·13 [-0·65 to 26·48]). A high-intensity programme also resulted in HIV incidence in FSWs declining to 2·23 per 100 p-y (0·00 to 14·44), from 5·06 per 100 p-y (0·52 to 22·21) if the programme was discontinued. In the context of 10 million adults over a 50-year time period and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year averted, $34 million per year can be spent for a high-intensity programme to be cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: A sex worker programme, even with low-level interventions, has a positive effect on key outputs for FSWs. A high-intensity programme has a considerably higher effect; HIV incidence among FSW and in the general population can be substantially reduced, and should be considered for implementation by policy makers. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Temporal trends in, and risk factors for, HIV seroconversion among female sex workers accessing Zimbabwe's national sex worker programme, 2009-19: a retrospective cohort analysis of routinely collected HIV testing data.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of new HIV infections among female sex workers in sub-Saharan Africa is poorly understood. We used routinely collected data that enable unique identification of repeat HIV testers to assess temporal trends in seroconversion and identify associated risk factors for female sex workers accessing Sisters with a Voice, Zimbabwe's national sex worker programme. METHODS: We pooled HIV testing data gathered between Sept 15, 2009, and Dec 31, 2019, from 36 Sisters programme sites in Zimbabwe. We included female sex workers aged 16 years or older with an HIV-negative test and at least one subsequent programme test. We calculated HIV seroconversion rates (using the midpoint between the HIV-positive test and the last negative test as the seroconversion date) and estimated rate ratios to compare 2-year periods by using Poisson regression, with robust SEs to account for clustering by site and adjusting for age and testing frequency to assess temporal trends. We did sensitivity analyses to explore assumptions about seroconversion dates and the effects of variation in follow-up time on our conclusions. FINDINGS: Our analysis included data for 6665 female sex workers, 441 (7%) of whom seroconverted. The overall seroconversion rate was 3·8 (95% CI 3·4-4·2) per 100 person-years at risk. Seroconversion rates fell with time since first negative HIV test. After adjustment, there was evidence of a decrease in seroconversion rates from 2009 to 2019 (p=0·0053). In adjusted analyses, being younger than 25 years, and having a sexually transmitted infection diagnosis at a previous visit, were significantly associated with increased seroconversion rates. Our findings were mostly robust to sensitivity analyses, but when 1 month before an HIV-positive test was used as the seroconversion date, seroconversion rates no longer fell with time. INTERPRETATION: We identified high rates of seroconversion shortly after linkage to programme services, which emphasises the need to strengthen HIV prevention programmes from first contact with female sex workers in Zimbabwe. New infections among female sex workers remain challenging to measure, but longitudinal analysis of routine testing data can provide valuable insights into seroconversion rates and associated risk factors. FUNDING: UN Population Fund, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, US Agency for International Development, and the Elton John AIDS Foundation.

Strategies to Identify and Reach Young Women Who Sell Sex With HIV Prevention and Care Services: Lessons Learnt From the Implementation of DREAMS Services in Two Cities in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Young women who sell sex (YWSS), are underserved by available HIV prevention and care services. The Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS) Partnership aimed to reduce the risk of HIV acquisition among vulnerable populations of adolescent girls and young women, including YWSS, in 10 sub-Saharan African countries. We describe 2 methods, respondent-driven sampling (RDS) and peer outreach, used to refer YWSS for DREAMS services in Zimbabwe, and compare the characteristics and engagement of YWSS referred to these services by each method. We hypothesized that RDS would identify YWSS at higher risk of HIV and those who were less engaged with HIV prevention and care services than peer outreach. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare respondent-driven sampling and peer outreach in recruiting and referring high-risk populations for HIV prevention and care services. METHODS: We used RDS, a sampling method designed to reach a representative sample of the network of key populations, and peer outreach, a programmatic approach to identify, reach, and refer YWSS for DREAMS between April and July 2017, and January 2017 and July 2018, respectively, in 2 cities in Zimbabwe. For RDS, we conducted detailed mapping to understand sex work typology and geography, and then purposively selected 10 "seed" participants in each city to initiate RDS. For peer outreach, we initiated recruitment through 18 trained and age-matched peer educators using youth-tailored community mobilization. We described the characteristics and service engagement of YWSS who accessed DREAMS services by each referral approach and assessed the association of these characteristics with referral approach using the chi-square test. Analysis was performed with and without restricting the period when RDS took place. We estimated the relative incremental costs of recruiting YWSS using each strategy for referral to DREAMS services. RESULTS: Overall, 5386 and 1204 YWSS were referred for DREAMS services through peer outreach and RDS, respectively. YWSS referred through RDS were more likely to access DREAMS services compared to YWSS referred through peer outreach (501/1204, 41.6% vs 930/5386, 17.3%; P<.001). Regardless of referral approach, YWSS who accessed DREAMS had similar education levels, and a similar proportion tested HIV negative and reported not using a condom at the last sex act. A higher proportion of YWSS accessing DREAMS through RDS were aged 18-19 years (167/501, 33.3% vs 243/930, 26.1%; P=.004) and more likely to be aware of their HIV status (395/501, 78.8% vs 396/930, 42.6%; P<.001) compared to those accessing DREAMS services through peer outreach. The incremental cost per young woman who sells sex recruited was US $7.46 for peer outreach and US $52.81 for RDS. CONCLUSIONS: Peer outreach and RDS approaches can reach and refer high-risk but different groups of YWSS for HIV services, and using both approaches will likely improve reach. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-DOI 10.1186/s12889-018-5085-6.

Interpreting declines in HIV test positivity: an analysis of routine data from Zimbabwe's national sex work programme, 2009-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Early diagnosis of HIV is critical for epidemic control. To achieve this, successful testing programmes are essential and test positivity is often used as a marker of their performance. The aim of this study was to analyse trends and predictors of HIV test positivity over time and explore how an understanding of seroconversion rates could build on our interpretation of this indicator among female sex workers in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We analysed HIV test data from Zimbabwe's nationally scaled sex work programme between 2009 and 2019. We defined test positivity as the proportion of all tests that were HIV positive and measured new diagnoses by estimating seroconversion rates among women with repeat tests, defined as an HIV-positive test after at least one HIV-negative test in the programme. We used logistic regression to analyse test positivity over three time-periods: 2009-2013, 2014-2017 and 2018-2019, adjusting for potential confounding by demographic factors and the mediating effects of time since last HIV test. We calculated the seroconversion rates for the same time-periods. RESULTS: During the 10-year study period, 54,503 tests were recorded in 39,462 women. Between 2009 and 2013, 18% of tests were among women who reported testing in the previous 6 months. By 2018-2019, this had increased to 57%. Between 2018 and 2019, test positivity was 9.6%, compared to 47.9% for 2009-2013 (aOR 6.08 95% CI 5.52-6.70) and 18.8% for 2014-2017 (aOR 2.17 95% CI 2.06-2.28). Adjusting for time since last test reduced effect estimates for 2009-2013 (aOR 4.03 95% CI 3.64-4.45) and 2014-2017 (aOR 1.97 95% CI 1.86-2.09) compared to 2018-2019. Among 7573 women with an initial HIV-negative test in the programme and at least one subsequent test, 464 tested HIV positive at a rate of 3.9 per 100 pyar (95% CI 3.5-4.2). CONCLUSIONS: Test positivity decreased among women testing through the programme over time, while seroconversion rates remained high. These declines were partly driven by changes in individual testing history, reflecting comprehensive coverage of testing services and greater knowledge of HIV status, but not necessarily declining rates of seroconversion. Understanding testing history and monitoring new HIV infections from repeat tests could strengthen the interpretation of test positivity and provide a better understanding of programme performance.

Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns among female sex workers in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe: using HIV prevalence by age and number of years since started selling sex (YSSS). DESIGN: We pooled data from FSW aged 18-39 participating in respondent-driven sampling surveys conducted in Zimbabwe between 2011 and 2017. METHODS: For each year of age, we estimated: HIV prevalence ( Pt ) and the change in HIV prevalence from the previous age ( Pt - Pt -1 ). We then estimated the rate of new HIV infections during that year of age: It  =  Pt - Pt -1 /(1 - Pt -1 ), and calculated HIV incidence for 18-24 and 25-39 year-olds separately as the weighted average of It . We estimated HIV incidence for FSW 1-5 years and 6-15 years since first selling sex using the same approach, and compared HIV prevalence among FSW first selling sex at their current age with the general population. RESULTS: Among 9906 women, 50.2% were HIV positive. Based on HIV prevalence increases by age, we estimated an HIV incidence of 6.3/100 person-years at risk (pyar) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3, 7.6) among 18-24 year-olds, and 3.3/100 pyar (95% CI 1.3, 4.2) among 25-39 year-olds. Based on prevalence increases by YSSS, HIV incidence was 5.3/100 pyar (95% CI 4.3, 8.5) between 1 and 5 years since first selling sex, and 2.1/100 pyar (95% CI -1.3, 7.2) between 6 and 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis is consistent with very high HIV incidence among FSW in Zimbabwe, especially among those who are young and recently started selling sex. There is a critical need to engage young entrants into sex work in interventions that reduce their HIV risk.

The impact of the DREAMS partnership on HIV incidence among young women who sell sex in two Zimbabwean cities: results of a non-randomised study.

INTRODUCTION: Young women who sell sex (YWSS) in Zimbabwe remain at high risk of HIV infection. Effective HIV prevention strategies are needed. Through support to access a combination of evidence-based interventions, including oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS) partnership aimed to reduce new HIV infections among adolescent girls and young women by 40% over 24 months. METHODS: Non-randomised 'plausibility' evaluation, powered to detect a 40% HIV incidence difference between DREAMS and non-DREAMS sites. Two large cities with DREAMS funding were included, and four smaller non-DREAMS towns for comparison. In all sites, YWSS were enrolled to a cohort through peer-referral. Women were followed up for 24 months. HIV seroconversion was the primary outcome, with secondary outcomes identified through a theory of change. Outcomes were compared between YWSS recruited in DREAMS cities and non-DREAMS towns, adjusting for individual-level confounders and HIV prevalence at enrolment. RESULTS: From April to July 2017, 2431 women were enrolled, 1859 of whom were HIV negative at enrolment; 1019 of these women (54.8%) were followed up from March to May 2019 and included in endline analysis. Access to clinical services increased, but access to socioeconomic interventions promoted by DREAMS was limited. A total of 79 YWSS HIV seroconverted, with HIV incidence among YWSS in DREAMS cities lower (3.1/100 person-years) than in non-DREAMS towns (5.3/100 person-years). In prespecified adjusted analysis, HIV incidence was lower in DREAMS cities but with weak statistical evidence (adjusted rate ratio (RR)=0.68; 95% CI 0.40 to 1.19; p=0.18). Women in DREAMS cities were more likely to report ever and ongoing PrEP use, consistent condom use, fewer sexual partners and less intimate partner violence. CONCLUSION: It is plausible that DREAMS lowered HIV incidence among YWSS in two Zimbabwean cities, but our evaluation provides weak statistical evidence for impact and suggests any reduction in incidence was lower than the anticipated 40% decline. We identified changes to some important 'pathways to impact' variables, including condom use.

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate.

BACKGROUND: National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates. SETTING: Zimbabwe. METHODS: Using 2015-2017 data from respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys among female sex workers (FSW) aged 18+ years, mappings, and program records, we calculated PSEs for each of the 20 sites across Zimbabwe, using up to 3 methods per site (service and unique object multipliers, census, and capture-recapture). We compared estimates from different methods, and calculated site medians. We estimated prevalence of sex work at each site using census data available on the number of 15-49-year-old women, generated a list of all "hotspot" sites for sex work nationally, and matched sites into strata in which the prevalence of sex work from sites with PSEs was applied to those without. Directly and indirectly estimated PSEs for all hotspot sites were summed to provide a national-level PSE, incorporating an adjustment accounting for sex work outside hotspots. RESULTS: Median site PSEs ranged from 12,863 in Harare to 247 in a rural growth-point. Multiplier methods produced the highest PSEs. We identified 55 hotspots estimated to include 95% of all FSW. FSW nationally were estimated to number 40,491, 1.23% of women aged 15-49 years, (plausibility bounds 28,177-58,797, 0.86-1.79%, those under 18 considered sexually exploited minors). CONCLUSION: There are large numbers of FSW estimated in Zimbabwe. Uncertainty in population size estimation should be reflected in policy-making.

Enhancing national prevention and treatment services for sex workers in Zimbabwe: a process evaluation of the SAPPH-IRe trial.

Targeted HIV interventions for female sex workers (FSW) combine biomedical technologies, behavioural change and community mobilization with the aim of empowering FSW and improving prevention and treatment. Understanding how to deliver combined interventions most effectively in sub-Saharan Africa is critical to the HIV response. The Sisters' Antiretroviral Programme for Prevention of HIV: an Integrated Response (SAPPH-Ire) randomized controlled trial in Zimbabwe tested an intervention to improve FSW engagement with HIV services. After 2 years, results of the trial showed no significant difference between study arms in proportion of FSW with HIV viral load ≥1000 copies/ml as steep declines occurred in both. We present the results of a process evaluation aiming to track the intervention's implementation, assess its feasibility and accessibility, and situate trial results within the national HIV policy context. We conducted a mixed methods study using data from routine programme statistics, qualitative interviews with participants and respondent driven surveys. The intervention proved feasible to deliver and was acceptable to FSW and providers. Intervention clinics saw more new FSW (4082 vs 2754), performed over twice as many HIV tests (2606 vs 1151) and nearly double the number of women were diagnosed with HIV (1042 vs 546). Community mobilization meetings in intervention sites also attracted higher numbers. We identified some gaps in programme fidelity: offering pre-exposure prophylaxis took time to engage FSW, viral load monitoring was not performed, and ratio of peer educators to FSW was lower than intended. During the trial, reaching FSW with HIV testing and treatment became a national priority, leading to increasing attendance at both intervention and control clinics. Throughout Zimbabwe, antiretroviral therapy coverage improved and HIV-stigma declined. Zimbabwe's changing HIV policy context appeared to contribute to positive improvements across the HIV care continuum for all FSW over the course of the trial. More intense community-based interventions for FSW may be needed to make further gains.

Strengthening the scale-up and uptake of effective interventions for sex workers for population impact in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: UNAIDS' goal of ending AIDS by 2030 is unreachable without better targeting of testing, prevention and care. Female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe are at high risk of HIV acquisition and transmission. Here, we report on collated programme and research data from Zimbabwe's national sex work programme. We also assess the potential for wider population impact of FSW programmes by modelling the impact on HIV incidence of eliminating transmission through FSW (i.e. calculate the population attributable fraction of incidence attributable to sex work). METHODS: Descriptive analyses of individual-level programme data collected from FSW between 2009 and June 2018 are triangulated with data collected through 37 respondent driven sampling surveys from 19 sites in Zimbabwe 2011 to 2017. We describe programme coverage, uptake, retention and patterns of sex work behaviour and gaps in service provision. An individual-level stochastic simulation model is used to reconstruct the epidemic and then the incidence compared with the counter-factual trend in incidence from 2010 had transmission through sex work been eliminated from that date. RESULTS: Sisters has reached >67,000 FSW since 2009, increasing attendance as number of sites, programme staff and peer educators were increased. Over 57% of all FSW estimated to be working in Zimbabwe in 2017 (n = 40,000) attended the programme at least once. The proportion of young FSW reached has increased with introduction of the "Young Sisters programme." There are no clear differences in pattern of sex work across settings. Almost all women report condom use with clients at last sex (95%); however, consistent condom use with clients in the last month varies from 52% to 95% by site. Knowledge of HIV-positive status has increased from 48 to 78% between 2011 and 2016, as has prevalence of ART use among diagnosed women (29 to 67%). Although subject to uncertainty, modelling suggests that 70% (90% range: 32%, 93%) of all new infections in Zimbabwe from 2010 are directly or indirectly attributable to transmission via sex work. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to increase coverage and impact of sex work programming through community-led scale-up of evidence-based interventions. Eliminating transmission through commercial sex would likely have a substantial impact on new infections occurring more widely across Zimbabwe.

Changes in engagement in HIV prevention and care services among female sex workers during intensified community mobilization in 3 sites in Zimbabwe, 2011 to 2015.

INTRODUCTION: 'Sisters with a Voice', Zimbabwe's nationally scaled comprehensive programme for female sex workers (FSWs), intensified community mobilization activities in three sites to increase protective behaviours and utilization of clinical services. We compare indicators among FSWs at the beginning and after implementation. METHODS: We used mixed methods to collect data at three sites: in-depth interviews (n = 22) in 2015, routine clinical data from 2010 to 2015, and two respondent driven sampling surveys in 2011 and 2015, in which participants completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire and provided a finger prick blood sample for HIV antibody testing. Estimates were weighted using RDS-1 and estimate convergence assessed in both years. We assessed differences in six indicators between 2011 and 2015 using logistic regression adjusted for age, duration in sex work and education. RESULTS: 870 FSWs were recruited from the three sites in 2011 and 915 in 2015. Using logistic regression to adjust for socio-demographic differences, we found higher estimates of the proportion of HIV-positive FSWs and HIV-positive FSWs who knew their status and reported being on ART in Mutare and Victoria Falls in 2015 compared to 2011. Reported condom use with clients did not differ by year; however, condom use with regular partners was higher in 2015 in Mutare and Hwange. Reported HIV testing in the last six months among HIV-negative FSWs was higher in 2015 across sites: for instance, in Victoria Falls it was 13.4% (95% CI 8.7% to 19.9%) in 2011 and 80.8% (95% CI 74.0 to 87.7) in 2015. FSWs described positive perceptions of the Sisters programme, ease of engaging with health services, and improved solidarity among peers. Programme data showed increases in service use by 2015 across all sites. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in key HIV care engagement indicators were observed among FSWs in two sites and in testing and prevention indicators across the three sites after implementation of an intensified community mobilization intervention. Engagement with services for FSWs is critical for countries to reach 90-90-90 targets.

90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020.

INTRODUCTION: The 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations aspire to 73% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) being virally suppressed by 2020. Using the HIV Synthesis Model, we aim to mimic the epidemic in Zimbabwe and make projections to assess whether Zimbabwe is on track to meet the 90-90-90 targets and assess whether recently proposed UNAIDS HIV transition metrics are likely to be met. METHODS: We used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to identify model parameter values which result in model outputs consistent with observed data, evaluated using a calibration score. These parameter values were then used to make projections to 2020 to compare with the 90-90-90 targets and other key indicators. We also calculated HIV transition metrics proposed by UNAIDS (percentage reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related mortality from 2010 to 2020, absolute rate of new infections and AIDS-related mortality, incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios). RESULTS: After calibration, there was general agreement between modelled and observed data. The median predicted outcomes in 2020 were: proportion of PLHIV (aged 15 to 65) diagnosed 0.91 (90% uncertainty range 0.87, 0.94) (0.84 men, 0.95 women); of those diagnosed, proportion on treatment 0.92 (0.90, 0.93); of those receiving treatment, proportion with viral suppression 0.86 (0.81, 0.91). This results in 72% of PLHIV having viral suppression in 2020. We estimated a percentage reduction of 36.5% (13.7% increase to 67.4% reduction) in new infections from 2010 to 2020, and of 30.4% (9.7% increase to 56.6% reduction) in AIDS-related mortality (UNAIDS target 75%). The modelled absolute rates of HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality in 2020 were 5.48 (2.26, 9.24) and 1.93 (1.31, 2.71) per 1000 person-years respectively. The modelled incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios in 2020 were 1.05 (0.46, 1.66) and 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our model was able to produce outputs that are simultaneously consistent with an array of observed data and predicted that while the 90-90-90 targets are within reach in Zimbabwe, increased efforts are required in diagnosing men in particular. Calculation of the HIV transition metrics suggest increased efforts are needed to bring the HIV epidemic under control.