Protection from SARS-CoV-2 Delta one year after mRNA-1273 vaccination in rhesus macaques coincides with anamnestic antibody response in the lung.

mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 Delta wanes over time; however, there are limited data on the impact of durability of immune responses on protection. Here, we immunized rhesus macaques and assessed immune responses over 1 year in blood and upper and lower airways. Serum neutralizing titers to Delta were 280 and 34 reciprocal ID50 at weeks 6 (peak) and 48 (challenge), respectively. Antibody-binding titers also decreased in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL). Four days after Delta challenge, the virus was unculturable in BAL, and subgenomic RNA declined by ∼3-log10 compared with control animals. In nasal swabs, sgRNA was reduced by 1-log10, and the virus remained culturable. Anamnestic antibodies (590-fold increased titer) but not T cell responses were detected in BAL by day 4 post-challenge. mRNA-1273-mediated protection in the lungs is durable but delayed and potentially dependent on anamnestic antibody responses. Rapid and sustained protection in upper and lower airways may eventually require a boost.

Antibody Lineages with Vaccine-Induced Antigen-Binding Hotspots Develop Broad HIV Neutralization.

The vaccine-mediated elicitation of antibodies (Abs) capable of neutralizing diverse HIV-1 strains has been a long-standing goal. To understand how broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) can be elicited, we identified, characterized, and tracked five neutralizing Ab lineages targeting the HIV-1-fusion peptide (FP) in vaccinated macaques over time. Genetic and structural analyses revealed two of these lineages to belong to a reproducible class capable of neutralizing up to 59% of 208 diverse viral strains. B cell analysis indicated each of the five lineages to have been initiated and expanded by FP-carrier priming, with envelope (Env)-trimer boosts inducing cross-reactive neutralization. These Abs had binding-energy hotspots focused on FP, whereas several FP-directed Abs induced by immunization with Env trimer-only were less FP-focused and less broadly neutralizing. Priming with a conserved subregion, such as FP, can thus induce Abs with binding-energy hotspots coincident with the target subregion and capable of broad neutralization.

Glycan Masking Focuses Immune Responses to the HIV-1 CD4-Binding Site and Enhances Elicitation of VRC01-Class Precursor Antibodies.

An important class of HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies, termed the VRC01 class, targets the conserved CD4-binding site (CD4bs) of the envelope glycoprotein (Env). An engineered Env outer domain (OD) eOD-GT8 60-mer nanoparticle has been developed as a priming immunogen for eliciting VRC01-class precursors and is planned for clinical trials. However, a substantial portion of eOD-GT8-elicited antibodies target non-CD4bs epitopes, potentially limiting its efficacy. We introduced N-linked glycans into non-CD4bs surfaces of eOD-GT8 to mask irrelevant epitopes and evaluated these mutants in a mouse model that expressed diverse immunoglobulin heavy chains containing human IGHV1-2∗02, the germline VRC01 VH segment. Compared to the parental eOD-GT8, a mutant with five added glycans stimulated significantly higher proportions of CD4bs-specific serum responses and CD4bs-specific immunoglobulin G+ B cells including VRC01-class precursors. These results demonstrate that glycan masking can limit elicitation of off-target antibodies and focus immune responses to the CD4bs, a major target of HIV-1 vaccine design.

Two chemoattenuated PfSPZ malaria vaccines induce sterile hepatic immunity.

The global decline in malaria has stalled1, emphasizing the need for vaccines that induce durable sterilizing immunity. Here we optimized regimens for chemoprophylaxis vaccination (CVac), for which aseptic, purified, cryopreserved, infectious Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZ) were inoculated under prophylactic cover with pyrimethamine (PYR) (Sanaria PfSPZ-CVac(PYR)) or chloroquine (CQ) (PfSPZ-CVac(CQ))-which kill liver-stage and blood-stage parasites, respectively-and we assessed vaccine efficacy against homologous (that is, the same strain as the vaccine) and heterologous (a different strain) controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) three months after immunization ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ , NCT02511054 and NCT03083847). We report that a fourfold increase in the dose of PfSPZ-CVac(PYR) from 5.12 × 104 to 2 × 105 PfSPZs transformed a minimal vaccine efficacy (low dose, two out of nine (22.2%) participants protected against homologous CHMI), to a high-level vaccine efficacy with seven out of eight (87.5%) individuals protected against homologous and seven out of nine (77.8%) protected against heterologous CHMI. Increased protection was associated with Vδ2 γδ T cell and antibody responses. At the higher dose, PfSPZ-CVac(CQ) protected six out of six (100%) participants against heterologous CHMI three months after immunization. All homologous (four out of four) and heterologous (eight out of eight) infectivity control participants showed parasitaemia. PfSPZ-CVac(CQ) and PfSPZ-CVac(PYR) induced a durable, sterile vaccine efficacy against a heterologous South American strain of P. falciparum, which has a genome and predicted CD8 T cell immunome that differs more strongly from the African vaccine strain than other analysed African P. falciparum strains.

Durability of Protection Against COVID-19 Through the Delta Surge for the NVX-CoV2373 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Protein-based vaccines for COVID-19 provide a traditional vaccine platform with long-lasting protection for non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens and may complement messenger RNA vaccines as a booster dose. While NVX-CoV2373 showed substantial early efficacy, the durability of protection has not been delineated. METHODS: The PREVENT-19 vaccine trial employed a blinded crossover design; the original placebo arm received NVX-CoV2373 after efficacy was established. Using novel statistical methods that integrate surveillance data of circulating strains with post-crossover cases, we estimated placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy and durability of NVX-CoV2373 against both pre-Delta and Delta strains of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy against pre-Delta strains of COVID-19 was 89% (95% CI: 75%, 95%) and 87% (72%, 94%) at 0 and 90 days after 2 doses of NVX-CoV2373, respectively, with no evidence of waning (p=0.93). Vaccine efficacy against the Delta strain was 88% (71%, 95%), 82% (56%, 92%), and 77% (44%, 90%) at 40, 120, and 180 days, respectively, with evidence of waning (p<0.01). In sensitivity analyses, the estimated Delta vaccine efficacy at 120 days ranged from 66% (15%, 86%) to 89% (74%, 95%) per various assumptions of the surveillance data. CONCLUSION: NVX-CoV2373 has high initial efficacy against pre-Delta and Delta strains of COVID-19 with little evidence of waning for pre-Delta strains through 90 days and moderate waning against Delta strains over 180 days.

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in participants with weakened immune systems from four randomized-controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing severe disease in the general population, current data are lacking regarding vaccine efficacy (VE) for individuals with mild immunocompromising conditions. METHODS: A post-hoc, cross-protocol analysis of participant-level data from the blinded phase of four randomized, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine phase 3 trials (Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax) was performed. We defined a "tempered immune system" (TIS) variable via a consensus panel based on medical history and medications to determine VE against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 cases in TIS participants versus non-TIS (NTIS) individuals starting at 14 days after completion of the primary series through the blinded phase for each of the four trials. An analysis of participants living with well-controlled HIV was conducted using the same methods. RESULTS: 3,852/30,351 (12.7%) Moderna participants, 3,088/29,868 (10.3%) Novavax participants, 3,549/32,380 (11.0%) AstraZeneca participants, and 5,047/43,788 (11.5%) Janssen participants were identified as having a TIS. Most TIS conditions (73.9%) were due to metabolism and nutritional disorders. Vaccination (versus placebo) significantly reduced the likelihood of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 for all participants for each trial. VE was not significantly different for TIS participants vs NTIS for either symptomatic or severe COVID-19 for each trial, nor was VE significantly different in the symptomatic endpoint for participants with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with mildly immunocompromising conditions, there is no evidence of differences in VE against symptomatic or severe COVID-19 compared to those with non-tempered immune systems in the four COVID-19 vaccine randomized controlled efficacy trials.

Phase 3 Safety and Efficacy of AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) Covid-19 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The safety and efficacy of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine in a large, diverse population at increased risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the United States, Chile, and Peru has not been known. METHODS: In this ongoing, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 clinical trial, we investigated the safety, vaccine efficacy, and immunogenicity of two doses of AZD1222 as compared with placebo in preventing the onset of symptomatic and severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) 15 days or more after the second dose in adults, including older adults, in the United States, Chile, and Peru. RESULTS: A total of 32,451 participants underwent randomization, in a 2:1 ratio, to receive AZD1222 (21,635 participants) or placebo (10,816 participants). AZD1222 was safe, with low incidences of serious and medically attended adverse events and adverse events of special interest; the incidences were similar to those observed in the placebo group. Solicited local and systemic reactions were generally mild or moderate in both groups. Overall estimated vaccine efficacy was 74.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65.3 to 80.5; P<0.001) and estimated vaccine efficacy was 83.5% (95% CI, 54.2 to 94.1) in participants 65 years of age or older. High vaccine efficacy was consistent across a range of demographic subgroups. In the fully vaccinated analysis subgroup, no severe or critical symptomatic Covid-19 cases were observed among the 17,662 participants in the AZD1222 group; 8 cases were noted among the 8550 participants in the placebo group (<0.1%). The estimated vaccine efficacy for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection (nucleocapsid antibody seroconversion) was 64.3% (95% CI, 56.1 to 71.0; P<0.001). SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binding and neutralizing antibodies increased after the first dose and increased further when measured 28 days after the second dose. CONCLUSIONS: AZD1222 was safe and efficacious in preventing symptomatic and severe Covid-19 across diverse populations that included older adults. (Funded by AstraZeneca and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04516746.).

Changing interim monitoring in response to internal clinical trial data.

Designing clinical trials for emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is challenging because information needed for proper planning may be lacking. Pre-specified adaptive designs can be attractive options, but what happens if a trial with no such design needs to be modified? For example, unexpectedly high efficacy (approximately 95%) in two COVID-19 vaccine trials might cause investigators in other COVID-19 vaccine trials to increase the number of interim analyses to allow earlier stopping for efficacy. If such a decision is based solely on external data, there are no issues, but what if internal trial data by arm are also examined? Fortunately, the conditional error principle of Müller and Schäfer (2004) can be used to ensure no inflation of the type 1 error rate, even if no interim analyses were planned. We study the properties, including limitations, of this method. We provide a shiny app to evaluate changes in timing of interim analyses in response to outcome data by arm in clinical trials.

Preintubation Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score for Predicting COVID-19 Mortality: External Validation Using Electronic Health Record From 86 U.S. Healthcare Systems to Appraise Current Ventilator Triage Algorithms.

OBJECTIVES: Prior research has hypothesized the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to be a poor predictor of mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19. Yet, several U.S. states have proposed SOFA-based algorithms for ventilator triage during crisis standards of care. Using a large cohort of mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, we externally validated the predictive capacity of the preintubation SOFA score for mortality prediction with and without other commonly used algorithm elements. DESIGN: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data. SETTING: Eighty-six U.S. health systems. PATIENTS: Patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between January 1, 2020, and February 14, 2021, and subsequently initiated on mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 15,122 mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, SOFA score alone demonstrated poor discriminant accuracy for inhospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients using the validation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.65-0.67). Discriminant accuracy was even poorer using SOFA score categories (AUC, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.54-0.55). Age alone demonstrated greater discriminant accuracy for inhospital mortality than SOFA score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.72). Discriminant accuracy for mortality improved upon addition of age to the continuous SOFA score (AUC, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76) and categorized SOFA score (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.71-0.73) models, respectively. The addition of comorbidities did not substantially increase model discrimination. Of 36 U.S. states with crisis standards of care guidelines containing ventilator triage algorithms, 31 (86%) feature the SOFA score. Of these, 25 (81%) rely heavily on the SOFA score (12 exclusively propose SOFA; 13 place highest weight on SOFA or propose SOFA with one other variable). CONCLUSIONS: In a U.S. cohort of over 15,000 ventilated patients with COVID-19, the SOFA score displayed poor predictive accuracy for short-term mortality. Our findings warrant reappraisal of the SOFA score's implementation and weightage in existing ventilator triage pathways in current U.S. crisis standards of care guidelines.

A single injection of anti-HIV-1 antibodies protects against repeated SHIV challenges.

Despite the success of potent anti-retroviral drugs in controlling human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection, little progress has been made in generating an effective HIV-1 vaccine. Although passive transfer of anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies can protect mice or macaques against a single high-dose challenge with HIV or simian/human (SIV/HIV) chimaeric viruses (SHIVs) respectively, the long-term efficacy of a passive antibody transfer approach for HIV-1 has not been examined. Here we show, on the basis of the relatively long-term protection conferred by hepatitis A immune globulin, the efficacy of a single injection (20 mg kg(-1)) of four anti-HIV-1-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (VRC01, VRC01-LS, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 (refs 9 - 12)) in blocking repeated weekly low-dose virus challenges of the clade B SHIVAD8. Compared with control animals, which required two to six challenges (median = 3) for infection, a single broadly neutralizing antibody infusion prevented virus acquisition for up to 23 weekly challenges. This effect depended on antibody potency and half-life. The highest levels of plasma-neutralizing activity and, correspondingly, the longest protection were found in monkeys administered the more potent antibodies 3BNC117 and 10-1074 (median = 13 and 12.5 weeks, respectively). VRC01, which showed lower plasma-neutralizing activity, protected for a shorter time (median = 8 weeks). The introduction of a mutation that extends antibody half-life into the crystallizable fragment (Fc) domain of VRC01 increased median protection from 8 to 14.5 weeks. If administered to populations at high risk of HIV-1 transmission, such an immunoprophylaxis regimen could have a major impact on virus transmission.

A platform trial design for preventive vaccines against Marburg virus and other emerging infectious disease threats.

BACKGROUND: The threat of a possible Marburg virus disease outbreak in Central and Western Africa is growing. While no Marburg virus vaccines are currently available for use, several candidates are in the pipeline. Building on knowledge and experiences in the designs of vaccine efficacy trials against other pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, we develop designs of randomized Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trials for Marburg virus vaccines. METHODS: A core protocol approach will be used, allowing multiple vaccine candidates to be tested against controls. The primary objective of the trial will be to evaluate the effect of each vaccine on the rate of virologically confirmed Marburg virus disease, although Marburg infection assessed via seroconversion could be the primary objective in some cases. The overall trial design will be a mixture of individually and cluster-randomized designs, with individual randomization done whenever possible. Clusters will consist of either contacts and contacts of contacts of index cases, that is, ring vaccination, or other transmission units. RESULTS: The primary efficacy endpoint will be analysed as a time-to-event outcome. A vaccine will be considered successful if its estimated efficacy is greater than 50% and has sufficient precision to rule out that true efficacy is less than 30%. This will require approximately 150 total endpoints, that is, cases of confirmed Marburg virus disease, per vaccine/comparator combination. Interim analyses will be conducted after 50 and after 100 events. Statistical analysis of the trial will be blended across the different types of designs. Under the assumption of a 6-month attack rate of 1% of the participants in the placebo arm for both the individually and cluster-randomized populations, the most likely sample size is about 20,000 participants per arm. CONCLUSION: This event-driven design takes into the account the potentially sporadic spread of Marburg virus. The proposed trial design may be applicable for other pathogens against which effective vaccines are not yet available.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Clinical and Immunologic Predictors of Mycobacterium avium Complex Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome in a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can present with new or worsening symptoms associated with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infection shortly after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation as MAC immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (MAC-IRIS). In this study, we assessed the utility of several laboratory tests as predictors of MAC-IRIS. METHODS: People with HIV with clinical and histologic and/or microbiologic evidence of MAC-IRIS were identified and followed up to 96 weeks post-ART initiation within a prospective study of 206 ART-naive patients with CD4 <100 cells/µL. RESULTS: Fifteen (7.3%) patients presented with MAC-IRIS within a median interval of 26 days after ART initiation. Patients who developed MAC-IRIS had lower body mass index, lower hemoglobin levels, higher alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and increased CD38 frequency and mean fluorescence intensity on CD8+ T cells at the time of ART initiation compared with non-MAC IRIS patients. A decision tree inference model revealed that stratifying patients based on levels of ALP and D-dimer could predict the likelihood of MAC-IRIS. A binary logistic regression demonstrated that higher levels of ALP at baseline were associated with increased risk of MAC-IRIS development. CONCLUSIONS: High ALP levels and increased CD8+ T-cell activation with low CD4 counts at ART initiation should warrant suspicion for subsequent development of MAC-IRIS.

PREVAIL IV: A Randomized, Double-Blind, 2-Phase, Phase 2 Trial of Remdesivir vs Placebo for Reduction of Ebola Virus RNA in the Semen of Male Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus RNA persists in the semen of male Ebola survivors for months to years after the acute infection, and male-to-female sexual transmission of the virus is well documented. We investigated whether remdesivir can safely reduce persistence of seminal Ebola virus RNA. METHODS: We recruited men with persistent seminal Ebola RNA in Liberia and Guinea. Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive intravenous remdesivir (GS-5734; Gilead Sciences) or matching placebo administered once daily by intravenous infusion over 1 hour on 5 consecutive days. Stratification was by country and number of positive (1 or 2) preenrollment semen tests. We evaluated the difference in mean assay negativity rate (ANR), that is, the proportion of negative tests for each participant in each group in the treatment (days 1-28) and follow-up (months 2-6) phases on an intention-to-treat basis. RESULTS: We enrolled 38 men from July 2016 through June 2018. The mean treatment phase ANRs were 85% (standard deviation [SD] = 24%) and 76% (SD = 30%) in the remdesivir and placebo arms, respectively (P = .270). The mean follow-up phase ANRs were 96% (SD = 10%) and 81% (SD = 29%) in the remdesivir and placebo arms, respectively (P = .041). The 5-day remdesivir regimen was well tolerated with no safety concerns. CONCLUSIONS: In this small trial, remdesivir 100 mg/day for 5 days safely reduced the presence of Ebola virus RNA in the semen of Ebola survivors 2 to 6 months after administration. A larger follow-up study is necessary to confirm results. Clinical Trials Registration . NCT02818582.

Adjustment for Disease Severity in the Test-Negative Study Design.

The test-negative study design is often used to estimate vaccine effectiveness in influenza studies, but it has also been proposed in the context of other infectious diseases, such as cholera, dengue, or Ebola. It was introduced as a variation of the case-control design, in an attempt to reduce confounding bias due to health-care-seeking behavior, and has quickly gained popularity because of its logistic advantages. However, examination of the directed acyclic graphs that describe the test-negative design reveals that without strong assumptions, the estimated odds ratio derived under this sampling mechanism is not collapsible over the selection variable, such that the results obtained for the sampled individuals cannot be generalized to the whole population. In this paper, we show that adjustment for severity of disease can reduce this bias and, under certain assumptions, makes it possible to unbiasedly estimate a causal odds ratio. We support our findings with extensive simulations and discuss them in the context of recently published cholera test-negative studies of the effectiveness of cholera vaccines.

The mechanistic analysis of founder virus data in challenge models.

Repeated low-dose challenge studies provide valuable information when evaluating candidate vaccines since they resemble the typical exposure of natural transmission and inform on the number of exposures prior to infection. Traditionally, the number of challenges to infection has been used as the outcome. This work uses the number of infecting viruses, or founder viruses at the time of infection, to more efficiently characterize a vaccine's mechanism of action. The vaccine mechanisms of action we consider are a Null mechanism (the vaccine offers no protection), a Leaky mechanism in which the number of founder viruses is reduced by some factor in vaccinated subjects, the All-or-None mechanism in which the vaccine randomly provides either complete protection or no protection in vaccinated subjects, and a Combination mechanism with both Leaky and All-or-None components. We consider two discrete marked survival models where the number of founder viruses follows a Poisson distribution with either a fixed mean parameter (Poisson model), or a random mean parameter that follows a Gamma distribution (negative binomial model). We estimate the models using maximum likelihood and derive likelihood ratio testing procedures that are accurate for small samples with boundary parameters. We illustrate the performance of these methodologies with a data example of simian immunodeficiency virus on nonhuman primates and a simulation study.

COVID-19 vaccine trials: The use of active controls and non-inferiority studies.

BACKGROUND: Recently emerging results from a few placebo-controlled randomized trials of COVID-19 vaccines revealed estimates of 62%-95% relative reductions in risk of virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, over approximately 2-month average follow-up period. Additional safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines are needed in a timely manner to adequately address the pandemic on an international scale. Such safe and effective vaccines would be especially appealing for international deployment if they also have favorable stability, supply, and potential for implementation in mass vaccination campaigns. Randomized trials provide particularly reliable insights about vaccine efficacy and safety. While enhanced efficiency and interpretability can be obtained from placebo-controlled trials, in settings where their conduct is no longer possible, randomized non-inferiority trials may enable obtaining reliable evaluations of experimental vaccines through direct comparison with active comparator vaccines established to have worthwhile efficacy. METHODS: The usual objective of non-inferiority trials is to reliably assess whether the efficacy of an experimental vaccine is not unacceptably worse than that of an active control vaccine previously established to be effective, likely in a placebo-controlled trial. This is formally achieved by ruling out a non-inferiority margin identified to be the minimum threshold for what would constitute an unacceptable loss of efficacy. This article not only investigates non-inferiority margins, denoted by δ, that address the usual objective of determining whether the experimental vaccine is "at least similarly effective to" the active comparator vaccine in the non-inferiority trial, but also develops non-inferiority margins, denoted by δo, intended to address the worldwide need for multiple safe and effective vaccines by satisfying the less stringent requirement that the experimental vaccine be "at least similarly effective to" an active comparator vaccine having efficacy that satisfies the widely accepted World Health Organization-Food and Drug Administration criteria for "worthwhile" vaccine efficacy. RESULTS: Using the margin δ enables non-inferiority trials to reliably evaluate experimental vaccines that truly are similarly effective to an active comparator vaccine having any level of "worthwhile" efficacy. When active comparator vaccines have efficacy in the range of 50%-70%, non-inferiority trials designed to use the margin δo have appealing properties, especially for experimental vaccines having true efficacy of approximately 60%. CONCLUSION: Non-inferiority trials using the proposed margins may enable reliable randomized evaluations of efficacy and safety of experimental COVID-19 vaccines. Such trials often require approximately two- to three-fold the person-years follow-up than a placebo-controlled trial. This could be achieved, without substantive increases in sample size, by increasing the average duration of follow-up from 2 months to approximately 4-6 months, assuming efficacy of the active comparator vaccine has been reliably evaluated over that longer duration.

COVID-19 vaccine trials: The potential for "hybrid" analyses.

BACKGROUND: Although several COVID-19 vaccines have been found to be effective in rigorous evaluation and have emerging availability in parts of the world, their supply will be inadequate to meet international needs for a considerable period of time. There also will be continued interest in vaccines that are more effective or have improved scalability to facilitate mass vaccination campaigns. Ongoing clinical testing of new vaccines also will be needed as variant strains continue to emerge that may elude some aspects of immunity induced by current vaccines. Randomized clinical trials meaningfully enhance the efficiency and reliability of such clinical testing. In clinical settings with limited or no access to known effective vaccines, placebo-controlled randomized trials of new vaccines remain a preferred approach to maximize the reliability, efficiency and interpretability of results. When emerging availability of licensed vaccines makes it no longer possible to use a placebo control, randomized active comparator non-inferiority trials may enable reliable insights. METHODS: In this article, "hybrid" methods are proposed to address settings where, during the conduct of a placebo-controlled trial, a judgment is made to replace the placebo arm by a licensed COVID-19 vaccine due to emerging availability of effective vaccines in regions participating in that trial. These hybrid methods are based on proposed statistics that aggregate evidence to formally test as well as to estimate the efficacy of the experimental vaccine, by combining placebo-controlled data during the first period of trial conduct with active-controlled data during the second period. RESULTS: Application of the proposed methods is illustrated in two important scenarios where the active control vaccine would become available in regions engaging in the experimental vaccine's placebo-controlled trial: in the first, the active comparator's vaccine efficacy would have been established to be 50%-70% for the 4- to 6-month duration of follow-up of its placebo-controlled trial; in the second, the active comparator's vaccine efficacy would have been established to be 90%-95% during that duration. These two scenarios approximate what has been seen with adenovirus vaccines or mRNA vaccines, respectively, assuming the early estimates of vaccine efficacy for those vaccines would hold over longer-term follow-up. CONCLUSION: The proposed hybrid methods could readily play an important role in the near future in the design, conduct and analysis of randomized clinical trials performed to address the need for multiple additional vaccines reliably established to be safe and have worthwhile efficacy in reducing the risk of symptomatic disease from SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Longitudinal Antibody Responses in People Who Inject Drugs Infected With Similar Human Immunodeficiency Virus Strains.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors influence the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody response produced during natural infection, leading to responses that can vary in specificity, strength, and breadth. METHODS: People who inject drugs identified as recently infected with HIV (n = 23) were analyzed for clustering of their viral sequences (genetic distance, <2%). Longitudinal antibody responses were identified for neutralizing antibody (Nab) potential, and differences in antibody subclass, specificity, and Fc receptor ligation using pseudovirus entry and multiplexed Fc array assays, respectively. Responses were analyzed for differences between subject groups, defined by similarity in the sequence of the infecting virus. RESULTS: Viral sequences from infected individuals were grouped into 3 distinct clusters with 7 unclustered individuals. Subjects in cluster 1 generally had lower antibody response magnitudes, except for antibodies targeting the V1/V2 region. Subjects in clusters 2 and 3 typically had higher antibody response magnitudes, with the Fv specificity of cluster 2 favoring gp140 recognition. NAb responses differed significantly between clusters for 3 of 18 pseudoviruses examined (P < .05), but there were no differences in overall NAb breadth (P = .62). DISCUSSION: These data demonstrate that individuals infected with similar viral strains can generate partially similar antibody responses, but these do not drastically differ from those in individuals infected with relatively unrelated strains.