The economic burden of malaria: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying disease costs is critical for policymakers to set priorities, allocate resources, select control and prevention strategies, and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Although malaria carries a very large disease burden, the availability of comprehensive and comparable estimates of malaria costs across endemic countries is scarce. METHODS: A literature review to summarize methodologies utilized to estimate malaria treatment costs was conducted to identify gaps in knowledge. RESULTS: Only 45 publications met the inclusion criteria. They utilize different methods, include distinct cost components, have varied geographical coverage (a country vs a city), include different periods in the analysis, and focus on specific parasite types or population groups (e.g., pregnant women). CONCLUSIONS: Cost estimates currently available are not comparable, hindering broad statements on the costs of malaria, and constraining advocacy efforts towards investment in malaria control and elimination, particularly with the finance and development sectors of the government.

Medical adhesive-related skin injuries in the neonatology department of a teaching hospital.

BACKGROUND: Medical adhesives are used to affix components to the skin. They are part of procedures performed by medical specialties because of their participation as constituents of different products, such as tapes, dressings, and electrodes. AIM: This study aims to assess the prevalence of, and factors associated with, the development of medical adhesive-related skin injuries (MARSIs) in patients treated with medical tapes in the neonatology department of a large teaching hospital in Brazil. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: All premature newborns (gestational age from 28 to <37 weeks) admitted in the neonatal intensive care unit of a teaching hospital, from March to August 2019, were followed up. Neonate skin condition was assessed based on the Neonatal Skin Condition Scale (NSCS). Data analyses were conducted in R software. RESULTS: In total, 46 premature newborns were included in the study; 552 evaluations were performed-mean of 11.7 per patient. Most neonates (n = 41; 89.1%) used adhesive tapes, either paper tape (n = 37; 80.4%) or transparent film dressing (n = 34; 73.9%). Newborns' face and head were the most affected body regions (n = 125; 50.2%). Eight patients had MARSIs (19.5% of patients who used tape). NSCS scores (P value <.001) and the adopted warming system (P value = .01302) were associated with the occurrence of MARSIs. Incubators seem to be a protective factor for MARSI (OR = 0.048; IC95% = 0.0008-0.75; P value = .013). CONCLUSION: Adhesive tapes in premature newborns should be considered a risk factor for injuries. Although NSCS showed mild-to-moderate impairment and lesion severity was low, this event is relatively frequent in neonatal units. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Awareness of the risk associated with adhesive tape application and removal in newborns allow health services to better address the problem by enforcing good practices, elaborating better protocols, qualifying the health care professionals, and potentially selecting softer tapes for neonates.

Brazil's unified health system: the first 30 years and prospects for the future.

In 1988, the Brazilian Constitution defined health as a universal right and a state responsibility. Progress towards universal health coverage in Brazil has been achieved through a unified health system (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]), created in 1990. With successes and setbacks in the implementation of health programmes and the organisation of its health system, Brazil has achieved nearly universal access to health-care services for the population. The trajectory of the development and expansion of the SUS offers valuable lessons on how to scale universal health coverage in a highly unequal country with relatively low resources allocated to health-care services by the government compared with that in middle-income and high-income countries. Analysis of the past 30 years since the inception of the SUS shows that innovations extend beyond the development of new models of care and highlights the importance of establishing political, legal, organisational, and management-related structures, with clearly defined roles for both the federal and local governments in the governance, planning, financing, and provision of health-care services. The expansion of the SUS has allowed Brazil to rapidly address the changing health needs of the population, with dramatic upscaling of health service coverage in just three decades. However, despite its successes, analysis of future scenarios suggests the urgent need to address lingering geographical inequalities, insufficient funding, and suboptimal private sector-public sector collaboration. Fiscal policies implemented in 2016 ushered in austerity measures that, alongside the new environmental, educational, and health policies of the Brazilian government, could reverse the hard-earned achievements of the SUS and threaten its sustainability and ability to fulfil its constitutional mandate of providing health care for all.

Cost-effectiveness and Price of Aripiprazole for Schizophrenia in the Brazilian Public Health System

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is a chronic debilitating condition characterized by disorders in thought, affect and behavior. Considering the low effectiveness of antipsychotic drugs for schizophrenia and the potentially high cost of an inadequate choice, a systematic cost-effectiveness evaluation of the list of subsidized antipsychotic drugs is necessary in order to allow an adequate choice of pharmacotherapy for the patient and the financial reality of the Brazilian public health system (SUS). OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study are to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the subsidized antipsychotic drugs for the first-line treatment of schizophrenia in Brazil and aripiprazole, and to discuss a reasonable incorporation price for aripiprazole. METHODS: A three-year Markov model with quarterly cycles was developed in TreeAge Pro® 2009 to assess the cost-effectiveness of six listed oral antipsychotic drugs for the first-line treatment of schizophrenia in the Brazilian public health system (haloperidol, chlorpromazine, risperidone, quetiapine, ziprasidone, and olanzapine) and oral aripiprazole. Outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Reasonable prices for aripiprazole were calculated based on the placement of the drug in the efficiency frontier and the cost-effectiveness ratio of the most efficient comparator. RESULTS: Olanzapine was considered cost-effective adopting any threshold value. If me-too drugs are required to be least as efficient as the comparators, olanzapine would still be cost-effective under 0.031 USD/mg. Aripiprazole was absolutely dominated by risperidone. The sensitivity analysis showed important uncertainty, which was expected. There is, nevertheless, a prominent separation between ziprasidone, quetiapine and the efficiency frontier. Aripiprazole was not considered cost-effective even when its price was set at zero: CER = USD 4,102 vs. USD 3,945 (haloperidol), USD 3,616 (chlorpromazine), USD 3,646 (risperidone) and USD 3,752 (olanzapine) USD/QALY. CONCLUSION: Olanzapine was considered the most cost-effective drug for the first-line treatment of schizophrenia in Brazil. Aripiprazole was dominated by risperidone and was not considered cost-effective against olanzapine. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE: This work demonstrated, using a price adjustment process, that there is no viable price that would make aripiprazole cost-effective for incorporation in the Brazilian public health system in the first-line of treatment of schizophrenia. The drug can be useful in specific cases, since individual variability of response to antipsychotic drugs is important.

Family health strategy and equity in prenatal care: a population based cross-sectional study in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal care coverage is still not universal or adequately provided in many low and middle income countries. One of the main barriers regards the presence of socioeconomic inequalities in prenatal care utilization. In Brazil, prenatal care is supplied for the entire population at the community level as part of the Family Health Strategy (FHS), which is the main source of primary care provided by the public health system. Brazil has some of the greatest income inequalities in the world, and little research has been conducted to investigate prenatal care utilization of FHS across socioeconomic groups. This paper addresses this gap investigating the socioeconomic and regional differences in the utilization of prenatal care supplied by the FHS in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: Data comes from a probabilistic household survey carried out in 2012 representative of the population living in urban areas in the state of Minas Gerais. The sample size comprises 1,420 women aged between 13 and 45 years old who had completed a pregnancy with a live born in the last five years prior to the survey. The outcome variables are received prenatal care, number of antenatal visits, late prenatal care, antenatal tests, tetanus immunization and low birthweight. A descriptive analysis and logistic models were estimated for the outcome variables. RESULTS: The coverage of prenatal care is almost universal in catchment urban areas of FHT of Minas Gerais state including both antenatal visits and diagnostic procedures. Due to this high level of coverage, socioeconomic inequalities were not observed. FHS supplied care for around 80% of the women without private insurance and 90% for women belonging to lower socioeconomic classes. Women belonging to lower socioeconomic classes were at least five times more likely to receive antenatal visits and any of the antenatal tests by the FHS compared to those belonging to the highest classes. Moreover, FHS was effective in reducing low birthweight. Women who had prenatal care through FHS were 40% less likely to have a child with low birthweight. CONCLUSION: This paper presents strong evidence that FHS promotes equity in antenatal care in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

EQ-5D-3L as a health measure of Brazilian adult population.

PURPOSE: This study explores the use of EQ-5D-3L as a measure of population health status in a Brazilian region with significant socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological heterogeneity. METHODS: Data came from a study of 3363 literate individuals aged between 18 and 64 years living in urban areas of the state of Minas Gerais. Descriptive analysis and logistic and OLS regression models were performed to analyze the relationship between EQ-5D-3L (descriptive system and EQ VAS) and other health (self-assessed health status and 8 self-reported diagnosed chronic diseases), socioeconomic (educational level and economic class), and demographic (gender and age) measures. Additionally, a grade of membership (GoM) analysis was performed to identify multidimensional health profiles. RESULTS: A total of 76 health statuses were identified in the Brazilian population. The most prevalent one is full health (44 % of the sample). Elderly people, women, and individuals with poor health and lower socioeconomic conditions generally report more health problems in the EQ-5D-3L dimensions. The GoM analysis demonstrated that health status of older individuals is associated with the socioeconomic condition. Arthritis exhibited the strongest association with the EQ-5D-3L instrument. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that EQ-5D-3L is a good measure of health status for the Brazilian population. The instrument has a good discriminatory capacity in terms of demographic, socioeconomic, and health measures. The high prevalence of individuals with full health may indicate the presence of ceiling effect. However, this prevalence is smaller than that in other countries.

Cost-Effectiveness of Technologies for the Treatment of Spinal Muscular Atrophy: A Systematic Review of Economic Studies.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to systematically collect data on cost-effectiveness analyses that assess technologies to treat type I and II spinal muscular atrophy and evaluate their recommendations. METHODS: A structured electronic search was conducted in 4 databases. Additionally, a complementary manual search was conducted. Complete economic studies that evaluated nusinersen, risdiplam, onasemnogene abeparvovec (OA), and the best support therapy (BST) from the health system's perspective were selected. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were compared with various thresholds for the analysis. The review was registered a priori in PROSPERO (CRD42022365391). RESULTS: Twenty studies were included in the analyses. They were all published between 2017 and 2022 and represent the recommendations in 8 countries. Most studies adopted 5, 6, or 10-state Markov models. Some authors took part in multiple studies. Four technologies were evaluated: BST (N = 14), nusinersen (N = 19), risdiplam (N = 5), and OA (N = 9). OA, risdiplam, and nusinersen were considered inefficient compared with the BST. Risdiplam and OA were generally regarded as cost-effective when compared with nusinersen. Because nusinersen is not a cost-effective drug, no recommendation can be derived from this result. Risdiplam and OA were compared in 2 studies that presented opposite results. CONCLUSIONS: Nusinersen, risdiplam, and OA are being adopted worldwide as a treatment for spinal muscular atrophy. Despite that, the pharmacoeconomic analyses show that the technologies are not cost-effective compared with the BST. The lack of controlled studies for risdiplam and OA hamper any conclusions about their face-to-face comparison.

The Burden of Chagas Disease in the Contemporary World: The RAISE Study.

Chagas disease (ChD), a Neglected Tropical Disease, has witnessed a transformative epidemiological landscape characterized by a trend of reduction in prevalence, shifting modes of transmission, urbanization, and globalization. Historically a vector-borne disease in rural areas of Latin America, effective control measures have reduced the incidence in many countries, leading to a demographic shift where most affected individuals are now adults. However, challenges persist in regions like the Gran Chaco, and emerging oral transmission in the Amazon basin adds complexity. Urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas and to non-endemic countries, especially in Europe and the US, have redefined the disease's reach. These changing patterns contribute to uncertainties in estimating ChD prevalence, exacerbated by the lack of recent data, scarcity of surveys, and reliance on outdated models. Besides, ChD's lifelong natural history, marked by acute and chronic phases, introduces complexities in diagnosis, particularly in non-endemic regions where healthcare provider awareness is low. The temporal dissociation of infection and clinical manifestations, coupled with underreporting, has rendered ChD invisible in health statistics. Deaths attributed to ChD cardiomyopathy often go unrecognized, camouflaged under alternative causes. Understanding these challenges, the RAISE project aims to reassess the burden of ChD and ChD cardiomyopathy. The project is a collaborative effort of the World Heart Federation, Novartis Global Health, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and a team of specialists coordinated by Brazil's Federal University of Minas Gerais. Employing a multidimensional strategy, the project seeks to refine estimates of ChD-related deaths, conduct systematic reviews on seroprevalence and prevalence of clinical forms, enhance existing modeling frameworks, and calculate the global economic burden, considering healthcare expenditures and service access. The RAISE project aspires to bridge knowledge gaps, raise awareness, and inform evidence-based health policies and research initiatives, positioning ChD prominently on the global health agenda.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Rituximab for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Using a Semi-Markovian Model Approach in R.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to compare the strategies fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab and fludarabine and cyclophosphamide for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Brazil. METHODS: A three-states clock-reset semi-Markovian model was constructed in R. The time horizon of the analysis was 15 years and monthly cycles were used. Transition probabilities were derived from the survival curves of the CLL-8 study. Other probabilities were also derived from the medical literature. Costs included in the model referred to the application of injectable drugs, prescription cost, cost of treating adverse events, and costs of supportive care. The model was evaluated by microsimulation. To determine the study result, multiple cost-effectiveness threshold values were used. RESULTS: In the main analysis, an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 19 029.38 PPP-US dollars (USD)/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) (41 141.52 Brazilian real/QALY) was observed. In 1.8% of the iterations, fludarabine and cyclophosphamide was considered dominant over fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab. It can be shown that at 1 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita/QALY, 36.1% of the iterations would consider the technology cost-effective. At 2 GDP per capita/QALY, this number rises to 82.1%. At 50 000 USD/QALY, 92.8% of the iterations would suggest the technology to be cost-effective. In terms of some threshold accepted or proposed around the world, the technology would be considered cost-effective at 50 000 USD/QALY, 3 GDP per capita/QALY, and 2 GDP per capita/QALY. It would not be cost-effective at 1 GDP per capita/QALY or the opportunity costs threshold. CONCLUSION: It can be considered that rituximab is cost-effective for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Brazil.

Cost components of school-based oral health-promoting programs: A systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Oral health-promoting school programs play a crucial role in achieving universal coverage of oral health care, by addressing oral diseases and promoting the well-being and quality of life of children and adolescents. However, a lack of studies has evaluated the costs associated with implementing these programs, which hinders decision-makers in adopting them on a large scale. This review aims to assess the cost components involved in school-based oral health-promoting programs. METHODS: This review will include studies that have conducted either partial or full economic evaluations, focusing on describing the cost components of oral health-promoting programs implemented in primary schools involving students aged 6 to 14. A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases: MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, the Virtual Health Library, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Web of Science, Scopus, and EMBASE. Additionally, gray literature was searched using the Health Technology Assessment Database. Two independent reviewers will screen the titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text review based on predefined inclusion criteria. Data extraction and critical appraisal evaluation will also be carried out independently by two reviewers. In case of disagreements, the reviewer team will resolve them through discussion. DISCUSSION: The systematic review resulting from this protocol aims to provide evidence regarding the cost components and necessary resources for implementing and maintaining oral health-promoting school programs. This information can assist decision-makers in adopting these programs on a larger scale and effectively addressing oral diseases among children and adolescents. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: CRD42022363743.

HBA1C point-of-care testing for diabetes control in a low-income population: A before and after study and cost-parity analysis HbA1c point-of-care testing for diabetes control.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results of a program that offered access to HbA1c POC tests for the glycemic control of patients with diabetes in small and poor municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: Using a before and after study, we compared four groups: patients submitted to (i) POC tests; (ii) conventional tests; (iii) both tests; and (iv) neither test. The analysis considered three periods: before the program; before the pandemic; and during the pandemic. A cost comparison was conducted under the societal perspective and a cost-parity model was designed. RESULTS: 1349 patients previously diagnosed with diabetes were included in the analysis. The rate of consultations and the rate of HbA1c testing were significantly different between all periods and groups. Group iii had a much higher consultation and testing rate. The costs were around 89.45 PPP-USD for POC tests and between 32.44 and 54.66 PPP-USD for conventional tests. Cost-parity analysis suggests that the technology would be acceptable if the annual number of tests was between 247 and 771. CONCLUSION: Using POC devices improved access to HbA1c testing but not glycemic control. Even in small towns, the number of tests necessary to achieve cost-parity is low enough to enable their incorporation into the public health system.

The economic burden of Chagas disease: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease (CD) is a neglected disease affecting millions worldwide, yet little is known about its economic burden. This systematic review is part of RAISE project, a broader study that aims to estimate the global prevalence, mortality, and health and economic burden attributable to chronic CD and Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. The objective of this study was to assess the main costs associated with the treatment of CD in both endemic and non-endemic countries. METHODS: An electronic search of the Medline, Lilacs, and Embase databases was conducted until 31st, 2022, to identify and select economic studies that evaluated treatment costs of CD. No restrictions on place or language were made. Complete or partial economic analyses were included. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included, with two-thirds referring to endemic countries. The most commonly investigated cost components were inpatient care, exams, surgeries, consultation, drugs, and pacemakers. However, significant heterogeneity in the estimation methods and presentation of data was observed, highlighting the absence of standardization in the measurement methods and cost components. The most common component analyzed using the same metric was hospitalization. The mean annual hospital cost per patient ranges from $25.47 purchasing power parity US dollars (PPP-USD) to $18,823.74 PPP-USD, and the median value was $324.44 PPP-USD. The lifetime hospital cost per patient varies from $209,44 PPP-USD for general care to $14,351.68 PPP-USD for patients with heart failure. DISCUSSION: Despite the limitations of the included studies, this study is the first systematic review of the costs of CD treatment. The findings underscore the importance of standardizing the measurement methods and cost components for estimating the economic burden of CD and improving the comparability of cost components magnitude and cost composition analysis. Finally, assessing the economic burden is essential for public policies designed to eliminate CD, given the continued neglect of this disease.

Estimation of Health-Related Quality of Life Losses Owing to a Technological Disaster in Brazil Using EQ-5D-3L: A Cross-Sectional Study.

OBJECTIVES: In 2015, a dam collapsed at Samarco iron ore mine in the municipality of Mariana, Brazil, and contaminated more than 600 km of watercourses and destroyed almost 1600 acres of vegetation. Nineteen people died and more than 600 families lost their homes. This study aimed to estimate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) losses owing to this disaster. METHODS: We collected data from a probabilistic sample of 459 individuals aged 15 years or older. Household face-to-face interviews were conducted in December 2018. Pre-event data were not available for this population, so respondents were asked to evaluate at present and in retrospect their health status using EQ-5D-3L. The Minas Gerais societal value sets for EQ-5D-3L health preferences, estimated in 2011, were used to calculate utility losses. The health loss estimation from EQ-5D will form the basis for the calculation of compensation payments for the victims. RESULTS: Approximately 74% of the study population suffered some HRQoL loss. On average, EQ-5D index values decreased from 0.95 to 0.76. The greatest effects were observed for the anxiety/depression dimension, followed by pain/discomfort. Before the tragedy, the proportion of individuals with severe anxiety/depression and pain/discomfort was equal to 1% rising to 23% and 11%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Catastrophic losses owing to the Samarco disaster were found. The EQ-5D-3L instrument showed feasibility and sensitiveness to measure HRQoL losses owing to a negative health shock in a low-income Brazilian population.

Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil.

Amazonia and the Northeast region of Brazil exhibit the highest levels of climate vulnerability in the country. While Amazonia is characterized by an extremely hot and humid climate and hosts the world largest rainforest, the Northeast is home to sharp climatic contrasts, ranging from rainy areas along the coast to semiarid regions that are often affected by droughts. Both regions are subject to extremely high temperatures and are susceptible to many tropical diseases. This study develops a multidimensional Extreme Climate Vulnerability Index (ECVI) for Brazilian Amazonia and the Northeast region based on the Alkire-Foster method. Vulnerability is defined by three components, encompassing exposure (proxied by seven climate extreme indicators), susceptibility (proxied by sociodemographic indicators), and adaptive capacity (proxied by sanitation conditions, urbanization rate, and healthcare provision). In addition to the estimated vulnerability levels and intensity, we break down the ECVI by indicators, dimensions, and regions, in order to explore how the incidence levels of climate-sensitive infectious and parasitic diseases correlate with regional vulnerability. We use the Grade of Membership method to reclassify the mesoregions into homoclimatic zones based on extreme climatic events, so climate and population/health data can be analyzed at comparable resolutions. We find two homoclimatic zones: Extreme Rain (ER) and Extreme Drought and High Temperature (ED-HT). Vulnerability is higher in the ED-HT areas than in the ER. The contribution of each dimension to overall vulnerability levels varies by homoclimatic zone. In the ER zone, adaptive capacity (39%) prevails as the main driver of vulnerability among the three dimensions, in contrast with the approximately even dimensional contribution in the ED-HT. When we compare areas by disease incidence levels, exposure emerges as the most influential dimension. Our results suggest that climate can exacerbate existing infrastructure deficiencies and socioeconomic conditions that are correlated with tropical disease incidence in impoverished areas.

[Social integration profiles among non-frail elderly institutionalized individuals in Natal, State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil]. / Perfis de integração social entre idosos institucionalizados não frágeis no município de Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil.

The scope of this study was to profile non-frail elderly individuals in Long-Stay Care Institutions in Natal, emphasizing social integration and stratification in philanthropic and private institutions in 2012. The instrument used was the Brazil Old Age Schedule (BOAS). Descriptive analysis was carried out and sociodemographic and health profiles of the elderly were estimated using the Grade of Membership (GoM) scale to obtain social integration typologies. The results indicated that 68 elderly were eligible; 63.2% were female, and 51.5% were 80 years or older; 43% reported poor or extremely poor health. The application of the GoM method yielded three profiles. The first is characterized by the elderly with higher presence of sociable/integrated men living in philanthropic institutions (22% of the elderly); the second mainly encompasses women in philanthropic institutions, with vulnerable health conditions and depression (34.9%); the third is the profile with higher levels of integration/sociability in private institutions, but also characterized by elderly persons with functional disability (34.9%). This study is important since integration and independence must be a part of social life of the elderly irrespective of the place where they live.

O objetivo do estudo foi caracterizar idosos não frágeis em Instituições de Longa Permanência para Idosos (ILPI) em Natal, enfatizando a integração social em instituições filantrópicas e privadas. Os dados foram de pesquisa realizada em 2012. O instrumento utilizado foi o Brazil Old Age Schedule (BOAS). Realizou-se análise descritiva e, posteriormente, foram estimados perfis sociodemográficos e de saúde dos idosos a partir do método Grade of Membership (GoM) que permitiu identificar tipologias de integração social. Os achados indicaram que dos 68 idosos elegíveis, 63,2% eram do sexo feminino e 51,5% tinham 80 anos ou mais; 43% reportaram saúde ruim ou péssima. O método GoM caracterizou 3 perfis: um com maior presença de homens sociáveis/integrados, residentes em ILPI filantrópicas (22% dos idosos); outro, de mulheres isoladas em ILPI filantrópicas com condições vulneráveis de saúde e depressão (34,9%); um terceiro, de idosos sociáveis/integrados em ILPI particulares com boas condições de saúde, mas com fragilidade funcional e mais velhos (34,9%). O tema do estudo é relevante pois a institucionalização deveria manter ou até mesmo estimular a integridade e a independência do idoso em todos os aspectos da vida social dentro e fora da instituição.

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios. / Pandemia por COVID-19 no Brasil: análise da demanda e da oferta de leitos hospitalares e equipamentos de ventilação assistida segundo diferentes cenários.

This study aims to analyze the pressure on the Brazilian health system from the additional demand created by COVID-19. The authors performed a series of simulations to estimate the demand for hospital beds (health micro-regions) as well as to ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators (health macro-regions) under different scenarios of intensity (infection rates equivalent to 0.01, 0.1, and 1 case por 100 inhabitants) and time horizons (1, 3, and 6 months). The results reveal a critical situation in the system for meeting this potential demand, with numerous health micro-regions and macro-regions operating beyond their capacity, compromising the care for patients, especially those with more severe symptoms. The study presents three relevant messages. First, it is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the Brazilian population, allowing more time for the reorganization of the supply and relieve the pressure on the health system. Second, the expansion of the number of available beds will be the key. Even if the private sector helps offset the deficit, the combined supply from the two sectors (public and private) would be insufficient in various macro-regions. The construction of field hospitals is important, both in places with a history of "hospital deserts" and in those already pressured by demand. The third message involves the regionalized organization of health services, whose design may be adequate in situations of routine demand, but which suffer additional challenges during pandemics, especially if patients have to travel long distances to receive care.

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde no Brasil decorrente da demanda adicional gerada pela COVID-19. Para tanto, foi realizado um conjunto de simulações para estimar a demanda de leitos gerais (microrregiões de saúde), leitos de UTI e equipamentos de ventilação assistida (macrorregiões de saúde) em diferentes cenários, para intensidade (taxas de infecção equivalentes a 0,01, 0,1 e 1 caso por 100 habitantes) e horizontes temporais (1, 3 e 6 meses). Os resultados evidenciam uma situação crítica do sistema para atender essa demanda potencial, uma vez que diversas microrregiões e macrorregiões de saúde operariam além de sua capacidade, comprometendo o atendimento a pacientes principalmente aqueles com sintomas mais severos. O estudo apresenta três mensagens relevantes. Em primeiro lugar, é necessário reduzir a velocidade de propagação da COVID-19 na população brasileira, permitindo um tempo maior para a reorganização da oferta e aliviando a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde. Segundo, é necessário expandir o número de leitos disponíveis. Ainda que o setor privado contribua para amortecer o déficit de demanda, a oferta conjunta dos dois setores não seria suficiente em várias macrorregiões. A construção de hospitais de campanha é importante, tanto em locais onde historicamente há vazios assistenciais como também naqueles onde já se observa uma pressão do lado da demanda. A terceira mensagem diz respeito à organização regionalizada dos serviços de saúde que, apesar de adequada em situações de demanda usual, em momentos de pandemia este desenho implica desafios adicionais, especialmente se a distância que o paciente tiver de percorrer for muito grande.

El objetivo de este estudio es analizar la presión sobre el sistema de salud brasileño, ocasionada por la demanda adicional de camas hospitalarias y equipos de ventilación mecánica, generada por el COVID-19. Para tal fin, se realizó un conjunto de simulaciones, con el fin de estimar la demanda de camas generales (microrregiones de salud), camas de UTI y equipamientos de ventilación asistida (macrorregiones de salud) en diferentes escenarios, según la intensidad (tasas de infección equivalentes a 0,01, 0,1 y 1 caso por 100 habitantes) y horizontes temporales (1, 3 y 6 meses). Los resultados evidencian una situación crítica del sistema para atender esa demanda potencial, ya que diversas microrregiones y macrorregiones de salud operarían más allá de su capacidad, comprometiendo la atención a pacientes principalmente aquellos con los síntomas más graves. El estudio presenta tres mensajes relevantes. En primer lugar, es necesario reducir la velocidad de propagación del COVID-19 en la población brasileña, permitiendo un tiempo mayor para la reorganización de la oferta y aliviando la presión sobre el sistema de salud. En segundo lugar, es necesario expandir el número de camas disponibles. A pesar de que el sector privado contribuya a amortiguar el déficit de demanda, la oferta conjunta de los dos sectores no sería suficiente en varias macrorregiones. La construcción de hospitales de campaña es importante, tanto en lugares donde históricamente existen lagunas asistenciales, como también en aquellos donde ya se observa una presión por parte de la demanda. El tercer mensaje se refiere a la organización por regiones de los servicios de salud que, a pesar de ser adecuada en situaciones de demanda habitual, en momentos de pandemia, este diseño implica desafíos adicionales, especialmente si la distancia que el paciente tuviera que recorrer fuera muy lejana.

Effect of early conditions on disability among the elderly in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Poor early conditions have been associated with increasing risks of some chronic diseases during adulthood. Since chronic illnesses are known to be important risk factors for disability, poor early conditions should predict disability at older ages. In addition, recent literature suggests that poor early conditions may affect the risk of disability even in the absence of chronic illnesses. We aimed to evaluate the magnitude of differentials in the risk of being disabled according to early conditions experienced by elderly populations in Latin America and the Caribbean, and to identify the group of chronic illnesses responsible for it. We find that poor early conditions exert a strong influence on disability later in life in two ways: by increasing the risk of suffering disability-related chronic illnesses and by increasing the risks of suffering disabilities by those with chronic illnesses.

Challenges and lessons from a primary care intervention in a Brazilian municipality.

OBJECTIVE: To address the implementation of the Lab for Innovation in Chronic Conditions in Santo Antonio do Monte, indicating the main challenges and lessons of a new chronic condition model. METHODS: This is an observational study based on two sources of data: 1) two cross-sectional household surveys, 2013 (2012 as reference year) and 2015 (2014 as reference year), representative for the entire population and four target groups (pregnant women; children under two years old; individuals with hypertension and diabetes); medical records of individuals who self-reported having hypertension or diabetes in the household survey of 2013. A descriptive statistics analysis was performed. RESULTS: The main findings showed that the public health system is the main provider of health services, mainly primary care, in Santo Antonio do Monte. Besides, the implementation of Lab for Innovation in Chronic Conditions showed the importance of building a Primary Health Care network in small municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: Community health agents and health managers played a fundamental role in the Primary Health Care network. The case study of Santo Antonio do Monte poses some challenges and lessons that clarify future interventions on building a Primary Health Care network that is essential to provide an adequate and longitudinal care to chronic conditions.

The Price of Substitute Technologies.

BACKGROUND: Only a small share of new drugs is truly innovative; 85% to 90% of all new health technologies have little or no advantage over existing therapeutic alternatives. Health economic evaluations can be used to induce acceptable prices for new technologies through threshold pricing. OBJECTIVE: This work discusses a cost-effectiveness threshold (λ) to be applied to the price regulation of substitute technologies. METHODS: Considering that substitute technologies add only small marginal benefits in terms of innovation or ethical considerations to the system, it does not make sense to allow a loss of efficiency to list them. It has been postulated that the threshold calculated from opportunity costs (κ) represents its maximum possible value and that there must be a threshold (ß) that maximizes consumer surplus. For a substitute technology to be listed, the cost of treatment associated with it must be lower than the cost of treatment of the incumbent technology added to the difference in effectiveness priced at the threshold. RESULTS: There is no reason for us to believe that the oligopolistic pharmaceutical market is currently charging prices at the cost of production. That way, the cost-effectiveness ratio of the incumbent technology, when lower than κ, is shown through a deductive process to be a plausible estimate for λ that fulfills the objective of maximizing consumer benefit, granting producers a part of the combined surplus to stimulate research and development; that is, it would be between ß and κ. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the price of substitute technologies should be limited by the cost-effectiveness ratio of the incumbent technology.

Electronic Version of the EQ-5D Quality-of-Life Questionnaire: Adaptation to a Brazilian Population Sample.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the measurement equivalence of the original paper version of an adapted tablet version of the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D). METHODS: A randomly selected sample of 509 individuals aged 18 to 64 years from the general population responded to the EQ-5D at two time points separated by a minimum interval of 24 hours and were allocated to one of the following groups: test-retest group (tablet-tablet) or crossover group (paper-tablet and tablet-paper). Agreement between methods was determined using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the κ coefficient. RESULTS: In the crossover group, the following ICC values were obtained: 0.76 (confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.89) for EQ-5D scores and 0.77 (CI 0.68-0.84) for visual analogue scale in subjects responding first to the tablet version; 0.83 (CI 0.75-0.89) for EQ-5D scores and 0.75 (CI 0.67-0.85) for visual analogue scale in subjects responding first to the paper version. In the test-retest group, the ICC was 0.85 (CI 0.73-0.91) for EQ-5D scores and 0.79 (CI 0.66-0.87) for visual analogue scale. The κ values were higher than 0.69 in this group. The internal consistencies of the paper and tablet methods were similar. CONCLUSIONS: The paper and tablet versions of the EQ-5D are equivalent. Test-retest and crossover agreement was high and the acceptability of the methods was similar among individuals.