Spatio-temporal spread of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia.

Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially. Spatial information on the changing levels of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia is therefore critical for health organisations to prioritise malaria control measures, but available data on artemisinin resistance are sparse. We use a comprehensive database from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network on the prevalence of non-synonymous mutations in the Kelch 13 (K13) gene, which are known to be associated with artemisinin resistance, and a Bayesian geostatistical model to produce spatio-temporal predictions of artemisinin resistance. Our maps of estimated prevalence show an expansion of the K13 mutation across the Greater Mekong Subregion from 2000 to 2022. Moreover, the period between 2010 and 2015 demonstrated the most spatial change across the region. Our model and maps provide important insights into the spatial and temporal trends of artemisinin resistance in a way that is not possible using data alone, thereby enabling improved spatial decision support systems on an unprecedented fine-scale spatial resolution. By predicting for the first time spatio-temporal patterns and extents of artemisinin resistance at the subcontinent level, this study provides critical information for supporting malaria elimination goals in Southeast Asia.

Tafenoquine versus Primaquine to Prevent Relapse of Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

BACKGROUND: Tafenoquine, a single-dose therapy for Plasmodium vivax malaria, has been associated with relapse prevention through the clearance of P. vivax parasitemia and hypnozoites, termed "radical cure." METHODS: We performed a phase 3, prospective, double-blind, double-dummy, randomized, controlled trial to compare tafenoquine with primaquine in terms of safety and efficacy. The trial was conducted at seven hospitals or clinics in Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand and involved patients with normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) enzyme activity and female patients with moderate G6PD enzyme deficiency; all patients had confirmed P. vivax parasitemia. The patients were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to receive a single 300-mg dose of tafenoquine or 15 mg of primaquine once daily for 14 days (administered under supervision); all patients received a 3-day course of chloroquine and were followed for 180 days. The primary safety outcome was a protocol-defined decrease in the hemoglobin level (>3.0 g per deciliter or ≥30% from baseline or to a level of <6.0 g per deciliter). Freedom from recurrence of P. vivax parasitemia at 6 months was the primary efficacy outcome in a planned patient-level meta-analysis of the current trial and another phase 3 trial of tafenoquine and primaquine (per-protocol populations), and an odds ratio for recurrence of 1.45 (tafenoquine vs. primaquine) was used as a noninferiority margin. RESULTS: A protocol-defined decrease in the hemoglobin level occurred in 4 of 166 patients (2.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 6.0) in the tafenoquine group and in 1 of 85 patients (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.2 to 6.4) in the primaquine group, for a between-group difference of 1.2 percentage points (95% CI, -4.2 to 5.0). In the patient-level meta-analysis, the percentage of patients who were free from recurrence at 6 months was 67.0% (95% CI, 61.0 to 72.3) among the 426 patients in the tafenoquine group and 72.8% (95% CI, 65.6 to 78.8) among the 214 patients in the primaquine group. The efficacy of tafenoquine was not shown to be noninferior to that of primaquine (odds ratio for recurrence, 1.81; 95% CI, 0.82 to 3.96). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with normal G6PD enzyme activity, the decline in hemoglobin level with tafenoquine did not differ significantly from that with primaquine. Tafenoquine showed efficacy for the radical cure of P. vivax malaria, although tafenoquine was not shown to be noninferior to primaquine. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline and Medicines for Malaria Venture; GATHER ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02216123 .).

Surveillance to achieve malaria elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained accessible and continue to provide early diagnosis and treatment contributing to an 89.3% decrease in Plasmodium falciparum incidence between 2014 and 2021.

Determinants of Primaquine and Carboxyprimaquine Exposures in Children and Adults with Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Primaquine is the only widely available drug for radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria. There is uncertainty whether the pharmacokinetic properties of primaquine are altered significantly in childhood or not. Patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria and with normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase were randomized to receive either chloroquine (25 mg base/kg of body weight) or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (dihydroartemisinin at 7 mg/kg and piperaquine at 55 mg/kg) plus primaquine, given either as 0.5 mg base/kg/day for 14 days or 1 mg/kg/day for 7 days. Predose day 7 venous plasma concentrations of chloroquine, desethylchloroquine, piperaquine, primaquine, and carboxyprimaquine were measured. Methemoglobin levels were measured at frequent intervals. Day 7 primaquine and carboxyprimaquine concentrations were available for 641 patients. After adjustment for the milligram-per-kilogram primaquine daily dose, day of sampling, partner drug, and fever clearance, there was a significant nonlinear relationship between age and trough primaquine and carboxyprimaquine concentrations and daily methemoglobin levels. Compared to adults 30 years of age, children 5 years of age had trough primaquine concentrations that were 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.73)-fold lower, trough carboxyprimaquine concentrations that were 0.45 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.55)-fold lower, and day 7 methemoglobin levels that were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.58 to 1.27)-fold lower. Increasing plasma concentrations of piperaquine and chloroquine and poor metabolizer CYP 2D6 alleles were associated with higher day 7 primaquine and carboxyprimaquine plasma concentrations. Higher blood methemoglobin concentrations were associated with a lower risk of recurrence. Young children have lower primaquine and carboxyprimaquine exposures and lower levels of methemoglobinemia than adults. Young children may need higher weight-adjusted primaquine doses than adults. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01640574.).

Evolution of Multidrug Resistance in Plasmodium falciparum: a Longitudinal Study of Genetic Resistance Markers in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Increasing resistance in Plasmodium falciparum to artemisinins and their artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) partner drugs jeopardizes effective antimalarial treatment. Resistance is worst in the Greater Mekong subregion. Monitoring genetic markers of resistance can help to guide antimalarial therapy. Markers of resistance to artemisinins (PfKelch mutations), mefloquine (amplification of P. falciparum multidrug resistance-1 [PfMDR1]), and piperaquine (PfPlasmepsin2/3 amplification and specific P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter [PfCRT] mutations) were assessed in 6,722 P. falciparum samples from Vietnam, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar between 2007 and 2019. Against a high background prevalence of PfKelch mutations, PfMDR1 and PfPlasmepsin2/3 amplification closely followed regional drug pressures over time. PfPlasmepsin2/3 amplification preceded piperaquine resistance-associated PfCRT mutations in Cambodia and reached a peak prevalence of 23/28 (82%) in 2015. This declined to 57/156 (38%) after first-line treatment was changed from dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to artesunate-mefloquine (ASMQ) between 2014 and 2017. The frequency of PfMDR1 amplification increased from 0/293 (0%) between 2012 and 2017 to 12/156 (8%) in 2019. Amplification of PfMDR1 and PfPlasmepsin2/3 in the same parasites was extremely rare (4/6,722 [0.06%]) and was dispersed over time. The mechanisms conferring mefloquine and piperaquine resistance may be counterbalancing. This supports the development of ASMQ plus piperaquine as a triple artemisinin combination therapy.

SERCAP: is the perfect the enemy of the good?

Single Encounter Radical Cure and Prophylaxis (SERCAP) describes an ideal anti-malarial drug that cures all malaria in a single dose. This target product profile has dominated anti-malarial drug discovery and development over the past decade. The operational advantage of a single encounter has to be balanced against the need for a high dose, reliable absorption, little variability in pharmacokinetic properties, slow elimination (to ensure curative drug exposures in all patients) and a very low rate of vomiting. The demanding aspirational target may have hindered anti-malarial drug development. Aiming for three-day regimens, as in current anti-malarial treatments, would be better.

Clustering of malaria in households in the Greater Mekong Subregion: operational implications for reactive case detection.

BACKGROUND: Malaria reactive case detection is the testing and, if positive, treatment of close contacts of index cases. It is included in national malaria control programmes of countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion to accelerate malaria elimination. Yet the value of reactive case detection in the control and elimination of malaria remains controversial because of the low yield, limited evidence for impact, and high demands on resources. METHODS: Data from the epidemiological assessments of large mass drug administration (MDA) studies in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos were analysed to explore malaria infection clustering in households. The proportion of malaria positive cases among contacts screened in a hypothetical reactive case detection programme was then determined. The parasite density thresholds for rapid diagnostic test (RDT) detection was assumed to be > 50/µL (50,000/mL), for dried-blood-spot (DBS) based PCR > 5/µL (5000/mL), and for ultrasensitive PCR (uPCR) with a validated limit of detection at 0.0022/µL (22/mL). RESULTS: At baseline, before MDA, 1223 Plasmodium infections were detected by uPCR in 693 households. There was clustering of Plasmodium infections. In 637 households with asymptomatic infections 44% (278/637) had more than one member with Plasmodium infections. In the 132 households with symptomatic infections, 65% (86/132) had more than one member with Plasmodium infections. At baseline 4% of households had more than one Plasmodium falciparum infection, but three months after MDA no household had more than one P. falciparum infected member. Reactive case detection using DBS PCR would have detected ten additional cases in six households, and an RDT screen would have detected five additional cases in three households among the 169 households with at least one RDT positive case. This translates to 19 and 9 additional cases identified per 1000 people screened, respectively. Overall, assuming all febrile RDT positive patients would seek treatment and provoke reactive case detection using RDTs, then 1047 of 1052 (99.5%) Plasmodium infections in these communities would have remained undetected. CONCLUSION: Reactive case detection in the Greater Mekong subregion is predicted to have a negligible impact on the malaria burden, but it has substantial costs in terms of human and financial resources.

Impact of delays to incubation and storage temperature on blood culture results: a multi-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Blood cultures are one of the most important tests performed by microbiology laboratories. Many hospitals, particularly in low and middle-income countries, lack either microbiology services or staff to provide 24 h services resulting in delays to blood culture incubation. There is insufficient guidance on how to transport/store blood cultures if delays before incubation are unavoidable, particularly if ambient temperatures are high. This study set out to address this knowledge gap. METHODS: In three South East Asian countries, four different blood culture systems (two manual and two automated) were used to test blood cultures spiked with five common bacterial pathogens. Prior to incubation the spiked blood culture bottles were stored at different temperatures (25 °C, in a cool-box at ambient temperature, or at 40 °C) for different lengths of time (0 h, 6 h, 12 h or 24 h). The impacts of these different storage conditions on positive blood culture yield and on time to positivity were examined. RESULTS: There was no significant loss in yield when blood cultures were stored < 24 h at 25 °C, however, storage for 24 h at 40 °C decreased yields and longer storage times increased times to detection. CONCLUSION: Blood cultures should be incubated with minimal delay to maximize pathogen recovery and timely result reporting, however, this study provides some reassurance that unavoidable delays can be managed to minimize negative impacts. If delays to incubation ≥ 12 h are unavoidable, transportation at a temperature not exceeding 25 °C, and blind sub-cultures prior to incubation should be considered.

Longitudinal trends in malaria testing rates in the face of elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: Providing at-risk communities with uninterrupted access to early diagnosis and treatment is a key component in reducing malaria transmission and achieving elimination. As programmes approach malaria elimination targets it is critical that each case is tested and treated early, which may present a challenge when the burden of malaria is reduced. In this paper we investigate whether malaria testing rates decline over time and assess the impacts of integrating malaria and non-malaria services on testing rates in the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme in the Kayin state of Myanmar. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using weekly collected data on testing rates from a network of more than 1200 malaria posts during the period from 2014 to 2020. To determine whether monthly testing rates changed over the years of programme operations, and whether integrating malaria and non-malaria services impacted these testing rates, we fitted negative binomial mixed-effects regression models to aggregate monthly data, accounting for malaria seasonal variation. RESULTS: In the first year of malaria post operation, testing rates declined, correlating with a decline in attendance by people from outside the malaria post catchment area, but then remained fairly constant (the Rate Ratio (RR) for 2nd versus 1st year open ranged from 0.68 to 0.84 across the four townships included in the analysis, the RR for 3rd to 6th year versus 1st year open were similar, ranging from 0.59-0.78). The implementation of a training programme, which was intended to expand the role of the malaria post workers, had minimal impact on testing rates up to 24 months after training was delivered (RR for integrated versus malaria-only services ranged from 1.00 to 1.07 across METF townships). CONCLUSION: Despite the decline in malaria incidence from 2014 to 2020, there has been no decline in the malaria testing rate in the METF programme after the establishment of the complete malaria post network in 2016. While the integration of malaria posts with other health services provides benefits to the population, our evaluation questions the necessity of integrated services in maintaining malaria testing rates in areas approaching elimination of malaria.

Factors affecting the electrocardiographic QT interval in malaria: A systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Electrocardiographic QT interval prolongation is the most widely used risk marker for ventricular arrhythmia potential and thus an important component of drug cardiotoxicity assessments. Several antimalarial medicines are associated with QT interval prolongation. However, interpretation of electrocardiographic changes is confounded by the coincidence of peak antimalarial drug concentrations with recovery from malaria. We therefore reviewed all available data to characterise the effects of malaria disease and demographic factors on the QT interval in order to improve assessment of electrocardiographic changes in the treatment and prevention of malaria. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data. We searched clinical bibliographic databases (last on August 21, 2017) for studies of the quinoline and structurally related antimalarials for malaria-related indications in human participants in which electrocardiograms were systematically recorded. Unpublished studies were identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) Evidence Review Group (ERG) on the Cardiotoxicity of Antimalarials. Risk of bias was assessed using the Pharmacoepidemiological Research on Outcomes of Therapeutics by a European Consortium (PROTECT) checklist for adverse drug events. Bayesian hierarchical multivariable regression with generalised additive models was used to investigate the effects of malaria and demographic factors on the pretreatment QT interval. The meta-analysis included 10,452 individuals (9,778 malaria patients, including 343 with severe disease, and 674 healthy participants) from 43 studies. 7,170 (68.6%) had fever (body temperature ≥ 37.5°C), and none developed ventricular arrhythmia after antimalarial treatment. Compared to healthy participants, patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria had shorter QT intervals (-61.77 milliseconds; 95% credible interval [CI]: -80.71 to -42.83) and increased sensitivity of the QT interval to heart rate changes. These effects were greater in severe malaria (-110.89 milliseconds; 95% CI: -140.38 to -81.25). Body temperature was associated independently with clinically significant QT shortening of 2.80 milliseconds (95% CI: -3.17 to -2.42) per 1°C increase. Study limitations include that it was not possible to assess the effect of other factors that may affect the QT interval but are not consistently collected in malaria clinical trials. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for malaria and fever-recovery-related QT lengthening is necessary to avoid misattributing malaria-disease-related QT changes to antimalarial drug effects. This would improve risk assessments of antimalarial-related cardiotoxicity in clinical research and practice. Similar adjustments may be indicated for other febrile illnesses for which QT-interval-prolonging medications are important therapeutic options.

The extended recovery ring-stage survival assay provides a superior association with patient clearance half-life and increases throughput.

BACKGROUND: Tracking and understanding artemisinin resistance is key for preventing global setbacks in malaria eradication efforts. The ring-stage survival assay (RSA) is the current gold standard for in vitro artemisinin resistance phenotyping. However, the RSA has several drawbacks: it is relatively low throughput, has high variance due to microscopy readout, and correlates poorly with the current benchmark for in vivo resistance, patient clearance half-life post-artemisinin treatment. Here a modified RSA is presented, the extended Recovery Ring-stage Survival Assay (eRRSA), using 15 cloned patient isolates from Southeast Asia with a range of patient clearance half-lives, including parasite isolates with and without kelch13 mutations. METHODS: Plasmodium falciparum cultures were synchronized with single layer Percoll during the schizont stage of the intraerythrocytic development cycle. Cultures were left to reinvade to early ring-stage and parasitaemia was quantified using flow cytometry. Cultures were diluted to 2% haematocrit and 0.5% parasitaemia in a 96-well plate to start the assay, allowing for increased throughput and decreased variability between biological replicates. Parasites were treated with 700 nM of dihydroartemisinin or 0.02% dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) for 6 h, washed three times in drug-free media, and incubated for 66 or 114 h, when samples were collected and frozen for PCR amplification. A SYBR Green-based quantitative PCR method was used to quantify the fold-change between treated and untreated samples. RESULTS: 15 cloned patient isolates from Southeast Asia with a range of patient clearance half-lives were assayed using the eRRSA. Due to the large number of pyknotic and dying parasites at 66 h post-exposure (72 h sample), parasites were grown for an additional cell cycle (114 h post-exposure, 120 h sample), which drastically improved correlation with patient clearance half-life compared to the 66 h post-exposure sample. A Spearman correlation of - 0.8393 between fold change and patient clearance half-life was identified in these 15 isolates from Southeast Asia, which is the strongest correlation reported to date. CONCLUSIONS: eRRSA drastically increases the efficiency and accuracy of in vitro artemisinin resistance phenotyping compared to the traditional RSA, which paves the way for extensive in vitro phenotyping of hundreds of artemisinin resistant parasites.

Contribution of Asymptomatic Plasmodium Infections to the Transmission of Malaria in Kayin State, Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: The objective of mass antimalarial drug administration (MDA) is to eliminate malaria rapidly by eliminating the asymptomatic malaria parasite reservoirs and interrupting transmission. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, where artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum is now widespread, MDA has been proposed as an elimination accelerator, but the contribution of asymptomatic infections to malaria transmission has been questioned. The impact of MDA on entomological indices has not been characterized previously. METHODS: MDA was conducted in 4 villages in Kayin State (Myanmar). Malaria mosquito vectors were captured 3 months before, during, and 3 months after MDA, and their Plasmodium infections were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. The relationship between the entomological inoculation rate, the malaria prevalence in humans determined by ultrasensitive PCR, and MDA was characterized by generalized estimating equation regression. RESULTS: Asymptomatic P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections were cleared by MDA. The P. vivax entomological inoculation rate was reduced by 12.5-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-100-fold), but the reservoir of asymptomatic P. vivax infections was reconstituted within 3 months, presumably because of relapses. This was coincident with a 5.3-fold (95% CI, 4.8-6.0-fold) increase in the vector infection rate. CONCLUSION: Asymptomatic infections are a major source of malaria transmission in Southeast Asia.

Effect of generalised access to early diagnosis and treatment and targeted mass drug administration on Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Eastern Myanmar: an observational study of a regional elimination programme.

BACKGROUND: Potentially untreatable Plasmodium falciparum malaria threatens the Greater Mekong subregion. A previous series of pilot projects in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam suggested that mass drug administration was safe, and when added to provision of early diagnosis and treatment, could reduce the reservoir of P falciparum and interrupts transmission. We examined the effects of a scaled-up programme of this strategy in four townships of eastern Myanmar on the incidence of P falciparum malaria. METHODS: The programme was implemented in the four townships of Myawaddy, Kawkareik, Hlaingbwe, and Hpapun in Kayin state, Myanmar. Increased access to early diagnosis and treatment of malaria was provided to all villages through community-based malaria posts equipped with rapid diagnostic tests, and treatment with artemether-lumefantrine plus single low-dose primaquine. Villages were identified as malarial hotspots (operationally defined as >40% malaria, of which 20% was P falciparum) with surveys using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR either randomly or targeted at villages where the incidence of clinical cases of P falciparum malaria remained high (ie, >100 cases per 1000 individuals per year) despite a functioning malaria post. During each survey, a 2 mL sample of venous blood was obtained from randomly selected adults. Hotspots received targeted mass drug administration with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus single-dose primaquine once per month for 3 consecutive months in addition to the malaria posts. The main outcome was the change in village incidence of clinical P falciparum malaria, quantified using a multivariate, generalised, additive multilevel model. Malaria prevalence was measured in the hotspots 12 months after mass drug administration. FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2014, and April 30, 2017, 1222 malarial posts were opened, providing early diagnosis and treatment to an estimated 365 000 individuals. Incidence of P falciparum malaria decreased by 60 to 98% in the four townships. 272 prevalence surveys were undertaken and 69 hotspot villages were identified. By April 2017, 50 hotspots were treated with mass drug administration. Hotspot villages had a three times higher incidence of P falciparum at malarial posts than neighbouring villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2·7, 95% CI 1·8-4·4). Early diagnosis and treatment was associated with a significant decrease in P falciparum incidence in hotspots (IRR 0·82, 95% CI 0·76-0·88 per quarter) and in other villages (0·75, 0·73-0·78 per quarter). Mass drug administration was associated with a five-times decrease in P falciparum incidence within hotspot villages (IRR 0·19, 95% CI 0·13-0·26). By April, 2017, 965 villages (79%) of 1222 corresponding to 104 village tracts were free from P falciparum malaria for at least 6 months. The prevalence of wild-type genotype for K13 molecular markers of artemisinin resistance was stable over the three years (39%; 249/631). INTERPRETATION: Providing early diagnosis and effective treatment substantially decreased village-level incidence of artemisinin-resistant P falciparum malaria in hard-to-reach, politically sensitive regions of eastern Myanmar. Targeted mass drug administration significantly reduced malaria incidence in hotspots. If these activities could proceed in all contiguous endemic areas in addition to standard control programmes already implemented, there is a possibility of subnational elimination of P falciparum. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Regional Artemisinin Initiative (Global Fund against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), and the Wellcome Trust.

Intracluster correlation coefficients in the Greater Mekong Subregion for sample size calculations of cluster randomized malaria trials.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculations for cluster randomized trials are a recognized methodological challenge for malaria research in pre-elimination settings. Positively correlated responses from the participants in the same cluster are a key feature in the estimated sample size required for a cluster randomized trial. The degree of correlation is measured by the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) where a higher coefficient suggests a closer correlation hence less heterogeneity within clusters but more heterogeneity between clusters. METHODS: Data on uPCR-detected Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections from a recent cluster randomized trial which aimed at interrupting malaria transmission through mass drug administrations were used to calculate the ICCs for prevalence and incidence of Plasmodium infections. The trial was conducted in four countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia. Exact and simulation approaches were used to estimate ICC values for both the prevalence and the incidence of parasitaemia. In addition, the latent variable approach to estimate ICCs for the prevalence was utilized. RESULTS: The ICCs for prevalence ranged between 0.001 and 0.082 for all countries. The ICC from the combined 16 villages in the Greater Mekong Subregion were 0.26 and 0.21 for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively. The ICCs for incidence of parasitaemia ranged between 0.002 and 0.075 for Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam. There were very high ICCs for incidence in the range of 0.701 to 0.806 in Laos during follow-up. CONCLUSION: ICC estimates can help researchers when designing malaria cluster randomized trials. A high variability in ICCs and hence sample size requirements between study sites was observed. Realistic sample size estimates for cluster randomized malaria trials in the Greater Mekong Subregion have to assume high between cluster heterogeneity and ICCs. This work focused on uPCR-detected infections; there remains a need to develop more ICC references for trials designed around prevalence and incidence of clinical outcomes. Adequately powered trials are critical to estimate the benefit of interventions to malaria in a reliable and reproducible fashion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.govNCT01872702. Registered 7 June 2013. Retrospectively registered. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01872702.

Pairwise growth competitions identify relative fitness relationships among artemisinin resistant Plasmodium falciparum field isolates.

BACKGROUND: Competitive outcomes between co-infecting malaria parasite lines can reveal fitness disparities in blood stage growth. Blood stage fitness costs often accompany the evolution of drug resistance, with the expectation that relatively fitter parasites will be more likely to spread in populations. With the recent emergence of artemisinin resistance, it is important to understand the relative competitive fitness of the metabolically active asexual blood stage parasites. Genetically distinct drug resistant parasite clones with independently evolved sets of mutations are likely to vary in asexual proliferation rate, contributing to their chance of transmission to the mosquito vector. METHODS: An optimized in vitro 96-well plate-based protocol was used to quantitatively measure-head-to-head competitive fitness during blood stage development between seven genetically distinct field isolates from a hotspot of emerging artemisinin resistance and the laboratory strain, NF54. These field isolates were isolated from patients in Southeast Asia carrying different alleles of kelch13 and included both artemisinin-sensitive and artemisinin-resistant isolates. Fluorescent labeled microsatellite markers were used to track the relative densities of each parasite throughout the co-growth period of 14-60 days. All-on-all competitions were conducted for the panel of eight parasite lines (28 pairwise competitions) to determine their quantitative competitive fitness relationships. RESULTS: Twenty-eight pairwise competitive growth outcomes allowed for an unambiguous ranking among a set of seven genetically distinct parasite lines isolated from patients in Southeast Asia displaying a range of both kelch13 alleles and clinical clearance times and a laboratory strain, NF54. This comprehensive series of assays established the growth relationships among the eight parasite lines. Interestingly, a clinically artemisinin resistant parasite line that carries the wild-type form of kelch13 outcompeted all other parasites in this study. Furthermore, a kelch13 mutant line (E252Q) was competitively more fit without drug than lines with other resistance-associated kelch13 alleles, including the C580Y allele that has expanded to high frequencies under drug pressure in Southeast Asian resistant populations. CONCLUSIONS: This optimized competitive growth assay can be employed for assessment of relative growth as an index of fitness during the asexual blood stage growth between natural lines carrying different genetic variants associated with artemisinin resistance. Improved understanding of the fitness costs of different parasites proliferating in human blood and the role different resistance mutations play in the context of specific genetic backgrounds will contribute to an understanding of the potential for specific mutations to spread in populations, with the potential to inform targeted strategies for malaria therapy.

The probability of a sequential Plasmodium vivax infection following asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.

BACKGROUND: Adding 8-aminoquinoline to the treatment of falciparum, in addition to vivax malaria, in locations where infections with both species are prevalent could prevent vivax reactivation. The potential risk of haemolysis under a universal radical cure policy using 8-aminoquinoline needs to be weighed against the benefit of preventing repeated vivax episodes. Estimating the frequency of sequential Plasmodium vivax infections following either falciparum or vivax malaria episodes is needed for such an assessment. METHODS: Quarterly surveillance data collected during a mass drug administration trial in the Greater Mekong Subregion in 2013-17 was used to estimate the probability of asymptomatic sequential infections by the same and different Plasmodium species. Asymptomatic Plasmodium infections were detected by high-volume ultrasensitive qPCR. Quarterly surveys of asymptomatic Plasmodium prevalence were used to estimate the probability of a P. vivax infection following Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. RESULTS: 16,959 valid sequential paired test results were available for analysis. Of these, 534 (3%) had an initial P. falciparum monoinfection, 1169 (7%) a P. vivax monoinfection, 217 (1%) had mixed (P. falciparum + P. vivax) infections, and 15,039 (89%) had no Plasmodium detected in the initial survey. Participants who had no evidence of a Plasmodium infection had a 4% probability to be found infected with P. vivax during the subsequent survey. Following an asymptomatic P. falciparum monoinfection participants had a 9% probability of having a subsequent P. vivax infection (RR 2.4; 95% CI 1.8 to 3.2). Following an asymptomatic P. vivax monoinfection, the participants had a 45% probability of having a subsequent P. vivax infection. The radical cure of 12 asymptomatic P. falciparum monoinfections would have prevented one subsequent P. vivax infection, whereas treatment of 2 P. vivax monoinfections may suffice to prevent one P. vivax relapse. CONCLUSION: Universal radical cure could play a role in the elimination of vivax malaria. The decision whether to implement universal radical cure for P. falciparum as well as for P. vivax depends on the prevalence of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections, the prevalence and severity of G6PD deficiency in the population and the feasibility to administer 8-aminoquinoline regimens safely. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01872702, first posted June 7th 2013, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01872702. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov under NCT02802813 on 16th June 2016. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02802813.

The role of monitoring and evaluation to ensure functional access to community-based early diagnosis and treatment in a malaria elimination programme in Eastern Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Improving access to early diagnosis and treatment (EDT) has increasingly proven to be a major contributor to decreasing malaria incidence in low-transmission settings. The Malaria Elimination Task Force (METF) has deployed malaria posts set up in Eastern Myanmar, providing free uninterrupted community-based access to EDT in more than 1200 villages. Ensuring high quality services are provided by these malaria posts is essential to reaching elimination targets. The present study aimed to determine the functionality of the malaria posts in the METF programme. METHODS: This report analysed routinely collected data (weekly reports, individual consultation, diagnostic test quality control) and data collected specifically during monitoring and evaluation visits using descriptive statistics and univariate logistic regression. The presence of major dysfunctions (stock-outs and reported closing; likely to impair the ability of the population to access EDT) or minor dysfunctions (no formal METF training, lack of regular salary, forms and manual not on-site, and low frequency of supervisor visits) and the ability to anticipate dysfunctions through analysis of weekly reports were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 65% of malaria posts had no major dysfunction identified during monitoring and evaluation visits, while 86% of malaria posts were fully stocked with tests and medicines used for treatment. Diagnosis was correctly conducted with few false positives and rare mis-speciation of results. Malaria post worker knowledge of malaria treatments showed few gaps, mostly in the treatment of more complex presentations. Malaria posts were well utilized in the population, with 94% of consultations occurring within the first 3 days of fever. In the regression analysis, reported stock-outs and delayed weekly reports were associated with observed major and minor dysfunctions in monitoring and evaluation visits, emphasizing the need to reinforce support to malaria post supervisors, who were responsible for the local logistics of supply and data transmission and day-to-day supervision. CONCLUSION: The malaria posts operating under the METF programme perform to a high standard, with the majority offering uninterrupted access to diagnosis and treatment, and high service uptake in the villages serviced by the programme. However, programme operations can be strengthened by increasing malaria post supervisor visits and re-training malaria post workers.

Operational Performance of a Plasmodium falciparum Ultrasensitive Rapid Diagnostic Test for Detection of Asymptomatic Infections in Eastern Myanmar.

In the Greater Mekong Subregion in Southeast Asia, malaria elimination strategies need to target all Plasmodium falciparum parasites, including those carried asymptomatically. More than 70% of asymptomatic carriers are not detected by current rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) or microscopy. An HRP2-based ultrasensitive RDT (uRDT) developed to improve the detection of low-density infections was evaluated during prevalence surveys within a malaria elimination program in a low-transmission area of eastern Myanmar. Surveys were conducted to identify high-prevalence villages. Two-milliliter venous blood samples were collected from asymptomatic adult volunteers and transported to the laboratory. Plasmodium parasites were detected by RDT, uRDT, microscopy, ultrasensitive qPCR (uPCR), and multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive positive and negative values of RDT and uRDT were calculated compared to uPCR and ELISA. Parasite and antigen concentrations detected by each test were defined using uPCR and ELISA, respectively. A total of 1,509 samples, including 208 P. falciparum-positive samples were analyzed with all tests. The sensitivity of the uRDT was twofold higher than that of RDT, 51.4% versus 25.2%, with minor specificity loss, 99.5% versus 99.9%, against the combined reference (uPCR plus ELISA). The geometric mean parasitemia detected by uRDT in P. falciparum monospecific infections was 3,019 parasites per ml (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1,790 to 5,094; n = 79) compared to 11,352 parasites per ml (95% CI, 5,643 to 22,837; n = 38) by RDT. The sensitivities of uRDT and RDT dropped to 34.6% and 15.1%, respectively, for the matched tests performed in the field. The uRDT performed consistently better than RDT and microscopy at low parasitemias. It shows promising characteristics for the identification of high-prevalence communities and warrants further evaluation in mass screening and treatment interventions.

Plasmodium falciparum genetic crosses in a humanized mouse model.

Genetic crosses of phenotypically distinct strains of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum are a powerful tool for identifying genes controlling drug resistance and other key phenotypes. Previous studies relied on the isolation of recombinant parasites from splenectomized chimpanzees, a research avenue that is no longer available. Here we demonstrate that human-liver chimeric mice support recovery of recombinant progeny for the identification of genetic determinants of parasite traits and adaptations.