A Comparison of Sodium-Glucose Co-Transporter 2 Inhibitor Kidney Outcome Trial Participants with a Real-World Chronic Kidney Disease Primary Care Population.

BACKGROUND/HYPOTHESIS: Observational studies suggest sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor kidney outcome trials are not representative of the broader population of people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, there are limited data on the generalisability to those without co-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D), and the representativeness of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial has not been adequately explored. We hypothesised that SGLT2 inhibitor kidney outcome trials are more representative of people with co-existing T2D than those without, and that EMPA-KIDNEY is more representative than previous trials. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of adults with CKD in English primary care was conducted using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Information Digital Hub. The proportions that met the eligibility criteria of SGLT2 inhibitor kidney outcome trials were determined, and their characteristics described. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with trial eligibility. RESULTS: Of 6,670,829 adults, 516,491 (7.7%) with CKD were identified. In the real-world CKD population, 0.9%, 2.2%, and 8.0% met the CREDENCE, DAPA-CKD, and EMPA-KIDNEY eligibility criteria, respectively. All trials were more representative of people with co-existing T2D than those without T2D. Trial participants were 9-14 years younger than the real-world CKD population, and had more advanced CKD, including higher levels of albuminuria. A higher proportion of the CREDENCE (100%), DAPA-CKD (67.6%) and EMPA-KIDNEY (44.5%) trial participants had T2D compared to the real-world CKD population (32.8%). Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors were prescribed in almost all trial participants, compared to less than half of the real-world CKD population. Females were under-represented and less likely to be eligible for the trials. CONCLUSION: SGLT2 inhibitor kidney outcome trials represent a sub-group of people with CKD at high risk of adverse kidney events. Out study highlights the importance of complementing trials with real-world studies, exploring the effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors in the broader population of people with CKD.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the delivery of preventive healthcare? An interrupted time series analysis of adults in English primary care from 2018 to 2022.

OBJECTIVE: Offering advice and support for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity is an evidence-based component of primary care. The objective was to quantify the impact of the pandemic on the rate of advice or referral for these four risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using primary care data from 1847 practices in England and 21,191,389 patients contributing to the Oxford Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. An interrupted time series analysis was undertaken with a single change point (March 2020). Monthly trends were modelled from 1st January 2018 - 30th June 2022 using segmented linear regression. RESULTS: There was an initial step reduction in advice and referrals for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in March 2020. By June 2022, advice on smoking (slope change -0.02 events per hundred patient years/month (EPH/month); 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.17, 0.21), obesity (0.06 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.12), alcohol (0.02 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.05) and physical inactivity (0.05 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.09) had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, smoking cessation referral remained lower (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.09), excess alcohol referral returned to similar levels (0.0005 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.0002, 0.0008), while referral for obesity (0.14 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.10, 0.19) and physical inactivity (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.02) increased relative to pre-pandemic rates. CONCLUSION: Advice and support for smoking, and advice for weight, excess alcohol and physical inactivity have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Clinicians and policy makers should prioritise preventive care in COVID-19 recovery plans.

Data visualisation approaches for component network meta-analysis: visualising the data structure.

BACKGROUND: Health and social care interventions are often complex and can be decomposed into multiple components. Multicomponent interventions are often evaluated in randomised controlled trials. Across trials, interventions often have components in common which are given alongside other components which differ across trials. Multicomponent interventions can be synthesised using component NMA (CNMA). CNMA is limited by the structure of the available evidence, but it is not always straightforward to visualise such complex evidence networks. The aim of this paper is to develop tools to visualise the structure of complex evidence networks to support CNMA. METHODS: We performed a citation review of two key CNMA methods papers to identify existing published CNMA analyses and reviewed how they graphically represent intervention complexity and comparisons across trials. Building on identified shortcomings of existing visualisation approaches, we propose three approaches to standardise visualising the data structure and/or availability of data: CNMA-UpSet plot, CNMA heat map, CNMA-circle plot. We use a motivating example to illustrate these plots. RESULTS: We identified 34 articles reporting CNMAs. A network diagram was the most common plot type used to visualise the data structure for CNMA (26/34 papers), but was unable to express the complex data structures and large number of components and potential combinations of components associated with CNMA. Therefore, we focused visualisation development around representing the data structure of a CNMA more completely. The CNMA-UpSet plot presents arm-level data and is suitable for networks with large numbers of components or combinations of components. Heat maps can be utilised to inform decisions about which pairwise interactions to consider for inclusion in a CNMA model. The CNMA-circle plot visualises the combinations of components which differ between trial arms and offers flexibility in presenting additional information such as the number of patients experiencing the outcome of interest in each arm. CONCLUSIONS: As CNMA becomes more widely used for the evaluation of multicomponent interventions, the novel CNMA-specific visualisations presented in this paper, which improve on the limitations of existing visualisations, will be important to aid understanding of the complex data structure and facilitate interpretation of the CNMA results.

Pharmacological and electronic cigarette interventions for smoking cessation in adults: component network meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is the leading preventable cause of death and disease worldwide. Stopping smoking can reduce this harm and many people would like to stop. There are a number of medicines licenced to help people quit globally, and e-cigarettes are used for this purpose in many countries. Typically treatments work by reducing cravings to smoke, thus aiding initial abstinence and preventing relapse. More information on comparative effects of these treatments is needed to inform treatment decisions and policies. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the comparative benefits, harms and tolerability of different smoking cessation pharmacotherapies and e-cigarettes, when used to help people stop smoking tobacco. SEARCH METHODS: We identified studies from recent updates of Cochrane Reviews investigating our interventions of interest. We updated the searches for each review using the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group (TAG) specialised register to 29 April 2022. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster-RCTs and factorial RCTs, which measured smoking cessation at six months or longer, recruited adults who smoked combustible cigarettes at enrolment (excluding pregnant people) and randomised them to approved pharmacotherapies and technologies used for smoking cessation worldwide (varenicline, cytisine, nortriptyline, bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and e-cigarettes) versus no pharmacological intervention, placebo (control) or another approved pharmacotherapy. Studies providing co-interventions (e.g. behavioural support) were eligible if the co-intervention was provided equally to study arms. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We followed standard Cochrane methods for screening, data extraction and risk of bias (RoB) assessment (using the RoB 1 tool). Primary outcome measures were smoking cessation at six months or longer, and the number of people reporting serious adverse events (SAEs). We also measured withdrawals due to treatment. We used Bayesian component network meta-analyses (cNMA) to examine intervention type, delivery mode, dose, duration, timing in relation to quit day and tapering of nicotine dose, using odds ratios (OR) and 95% credibility intervals (CrIs). We calculated an effect estimate for combination NRT using an additive model. We evaluated the influence of population and study characteristics, provision of behavioural support and control arm rates using meta-regression. We evaluated certainty using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: Of our 332 eligible RCTs, 319 (835 study arms, 157,179 participants) provided sufficient data to be included in our cNMA. Of these, we judged 51 to be at low risk of bias overall, 104 at high risk and 164 at unclear risk, and 118 reported pharmaceutical or e-cigarette/tobacco industry funding. Removing studies at high risk of bias did not change our interpretation of the results. Benefits We found high-certainty evidence that nicotine e-cigarettes (OR 2.37, 95% CrI 1.73 to 3.24; 16 RCTs, 3828 participants), varenicline (OR 2.33, 95% CrI 2.02 to 2.68; 67 RCTs, 16,430 participants) and cytisine (OR 2.21, 95% CrI 1.66 to 2.97; 7 RCTs, 3848 participants) were associated with higher quit rates than control. In absolute terms, this might lead to an additional eight (95% CrI 4 to 13), eight (95% CrI 6 to 10) and seven additional quitters per 100 (95% CrI 4 to 12), respectively. These interventions appeared to be more effective than the other interventions apart from combination NRT (patch and a fast-acting form of NRT), which had a lower point estimate (calculated additive effect) but overlapping 95% CrIs (OR 1.93, 95% CrI 1.61 to 2.34). There was also high-certainty evidence that nicotine patch alone (OR 1.37, 95% CrI 1.20 to 1.56; 105 RCTs, 37,319 participants), fast-acting NRT alone (OR 1.41, 95% CrI 1.29 to 1.55; 120 RCTs, 31,756 participants) and bupropion (OR 1.43, 95% CrI 1.26 to 1.62; 71 RCTs, 14,759 participants) were more effective than control, resulting in two (95% CrI 1 to 3), three (95% CrI 2 to 3) and three (95% CrI 2 to 4) additional quitters per 100 respectively. Nortriptyline is probably associated with higher quit rates than control (OR 1.35, 95% CrI 1.02 to 1.81; 10 RCTs, 1290 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), resulting in two (CrI 0 to 5) additional quitters per 100. Non-nicotine/placebo e-cigarettes (OR 1.16, 95% CrI 0.74 to 1.80; 8 RCTs, 1094 participants; low-certainty evidence), equating to one additional quitter (95% CrI -2 to 5), had point estimates favouring the intervention over control, but CrIs encompassed the potential for no difference and harm. There was low-certainty evidence that tapering the dose of NRT prior to stopping treatment may improve effectiveness; however, 95% CrIs also incorporated the null (OR 1.14, 95% CrI 1.00 to 1.29; 111 RCTs, 33,156 participants). This might lead to an additional one quitter per 100 (95% CrI 0 to 2). Harms There were insufficient data to include nortriptyline and non-nicotine EC in the final SAE model. Overall rates of SAEs for the remaining treatments were low (average 3%). Low-certainty evidence did not show a clear difference in the number of people reporting SAEs for nicotine e-cigarettes, varenicline, cytisine or NRT when compared to no pharmacotherapy/e-cigarettes or placebo. Bupropion may slightly increase rates of SAEs, although the CrI also incorporated no difference (moderate certainty). In absolute terms bupropion may cause one more person in 100 to experience an SAE (95% CrI 0 to 2). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The most effective interventions were nicotine e-cigarettes, varenicline and cytisine (all high certainty), as well as combination NRT (additive effect, certainty not rated). There was also high-certainty evidence for the effectiveness of nicotine patch, fast-acting NRT and bupropion. Less certain evidence of benefit was present for nortriptyline (moderate certainty), non-nicotine e-cigarettes and tapering of nicotine dose (both low certainty). There was moderate-certainty evidence that bupropion may slightly increase the frequency of SAEs, although there was also the possibility of no increased risk. There was no clear evidence that any other tested interventions increased SAEs. Overall, SAE data were sparse with very low numbers of SAEs, and so further evidence may change our interpretation and certainty. Future studies should report SAEs to strengthen certainty in this outcome. More head-to-head comparisons of the most effective interventions are needed, as are tests of combinations of these. Future work should unify data from behavioural and pharmacological interventions to inform approaches to combined support for smoking cessation.

Consultations for clinical features of possible cancer and associated urgent referrals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational cohort study from English primary care.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear to what extent reductions in urgent referrals for suspected cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic were the result of fewer patients attending primary care compared to GPs referring fewer patients. METHODS: Cohort study including electronic health records data from 8,192,069 patients from 663 English practices. Weekly consultation rates, cumulative consultations and referrals were calculated for 28 clinical features from the NICE suspected cancer guidelines. Clinical feature consultation rate ratios (CRR) and urgent referral rate ratios (RRR) compared time periods in 2020 with 2019. FINDINGS: Consultations for cancer clinical features decreased by 24.19% (95% CI: 24.04-24.34%) between 2019 and 2020, particularly in the 6-12 weeks following the first national lockdown. Urgent referrals for clinical features decreased by 10.47% (95% CI: 9.82-11.12%) between 2019 and 2020. Overall, once patients consulted with primary care, GPs urgently referred a similar or greater proportion of patients compared to previous years. CONCLUSION: Due to the significant fall in patients consulting with clinical features of cancer there was a lower than expected number of urgent referrals in 2020. Sustained efforts should be made throughout the pandemic to encourage the public to consult their GP with cancer clinical features.

Physical activity for treatment of irritable bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Current recommendations for people with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) to partake in physical activity are based on low-level evidence, do not incorporate evidence from all available randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and provide little information regarding potential adverse effects. OBJECTIVES: To assess the benefits and harms of physical activity interventions in adults diagnosed with irritable bowel syndrome and to explore possible effect moderators including type, setting and nature of physical activity interventions. SEARCH METHODS: We searched nine electronic databases including CENTRAL, MEDLINE and Embase to 5 November 2021. We handsearched reference lists and sought unpublished studies through trial registries. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included RCTs involving adults (aged 18 years or older) diagnosed with IBS and conducted in any setting comparing a physical activity intervention with no intervention, usual care or wait-list control group or another physical activity intervention group and assessing a validated measure of symptoms, quality of life or bowel movement. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted study data, and performed risk of bias and GRADE assessments to assess the certainty of evidence. We pooled studies that evaluated similar outcomes using a random-effects meta-analysis, and synthesised data from other studies narratively. MAIN RESULTS: We included 11 RCTs with data for 622 participants. Most (10/11) were set in high- or middle- to high-income countries, with five involving supervised physical activity, three unsupervised activity and three a mix of supervised and unsupervised activity. No trial was at low risk of bias. Four trials specified a minimally important difference for at least one assessed outcome measure. Data for 10 trials were obtained from published journal articles, with data for one obtained from an unpublished Masters degree thesis. Irritable bowel syndrome symptoms Six RCTs assessed the effectiveness of a physical activity intervention compared with usual care on global symptoms of IBS. Meta-analysis of five studies showed an observed improvement in reported symptoms following physical activity (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.44 to -0.42; 185 participants). We rated the certainty of evidence for this outcome as very low due to unclear and high risk of bias, inconsistency and imprecision from sparse data. This means physical activity may improve IBS symptoms but the evidence is very uncertain. The results of the remaining study supported the meta-analysis but were at unclear risk of bias and sample size was small. Two studies assessed the effectiveness of a yoga intervention compared with a walking intervention on global IBS symptoms. Meta-analysis of these two studies found no conclusive evidence of an effect of yoga compared with walking on IBS symptoms (SMD -1.16, 95% CI -3.93 to 1.62; 124 participants). We rated the certainty of evidence as very low, meaning the evidence is very uncertain about the effect of yoga interventions compared with walking interventions on IBS symptoms. Two studies assessed the effectiveness of a physical activity intervention (yoga) compared with medication. One reported no observed difference in global IBS symptoms, though CIs were wide, suggesting uncertainty in the observed estimates and risk of bias was high (MD -1.20, 95% CI -2.65 to 0.25; 21 participants). We excluded IBS symptom data for the remaining study as it used a non-validated method. One study compared a yoga intervention with a dietary intervention and reported an observed improvement in symptoms with both interventions but neither intervention was superior to the other. Quality of life Five RCTs assessed the impact of physical activity on self-reported quality of life compared with usual care. Meta-analysis of data from four studies found no improvement in quality of life following a physical activity intervention (SMD 1.17, 95% CI -0.30 to 2.64; 134 participants; very low certainty due to risk of bias, inconsistency and imprecision). We rated the certainty of evidence as very low, meaning the evidence is very uncertain about the effect of physical activity interventions on quality-of-life outcomes in people with IBS. One study assessed the impact on quality of life of a yoga intervention compared with walking and observed an improvement in the yoga group (MD 53.45, 95% CI 38.85 to 68.05; 97 participants ).  One study reported no observed difference in quality of life between a yoga and a dietary intervention. Abdominal pain Two trials assessed the impact of physical activity compared with usual care on reported abdominal pain. Meta-analysis found no improvement in abdominal pain with physical activity compared with usual care (SMD 0.01, 95% CI -0.48 to 0.50; 64 participants). We rated the certainty of the evidence as very low due to risk of bias and imprecision, meaning the evidence is very uncertain about the effect of physical activity interventions on abdominal pain in people with IBS. One study assessing the impact of a yoga intervention compared with walking advice reported no observed differences between groups on abdominal pain. One study comparing a yoga intervention with a dietary intervention found neither intervention had a more beneficial impact than the other and both interventions did not conclusively reduce abdominal pain. There was insufficient evidence to adequately assess adverse effects associated with physical activity due to a lack of reporting in trials. One study reported a musculoskeletal injury in a yoga intervention group but this did not result in withdrawal from the study. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Findings from a small body of evidence suggest that physical activity comprising of yoga, treadmill exercise or support to increase physical activity may improve symptoms but not quality of life or abdominal pain in people diagnosed with IBS but we have little confidence in these conclusions due to the very low certainty of evidence. The numbers of reported adverse events were low and the certainty of these findings was very low for all comparisons, so no conclusions can be drawn. Discussions with patients considering physical activity as part of symptom management should address the uncertainty in the evidence to ensure fully informed decisions. If deemed sufficiently important to patients and healthcare providers, higher quality research is needed to enable more certain conclusions.

Long term trends in natriuretic peptide testing for heart failure in UK primary care: a cohort study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition with poor outcomes and is often diagnosed on emergency hospital admission. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care is recommended in international guidelines to facilitate timely diagnosis. We aimed to report contemporary trends in NP testing and subsequent HF diagnosis rates over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort study using linked primary and secondary care data of adult (≥45 years) patients in England 2004-18 (n = 7 212 013, 48% male) to report trends in NP testing (over time, by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) and HF diagnosis rates. NP test rates increased from 0.25 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.26] in 2004 to 16.88 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 16.73-17.03) in 2018, with a significant upward trend in 2010 following publication of national HF guidance. Women and different ethnic groups had similar test rates, and there was more NP testing in older and more socially deprived groups as expected. The HF detection rate was constant over the study period (around 10%) and the proportion of patients without NP testing prior to diagnosis remained high [99.6% (n = 13 484) in 2004 vs. 76.7% (n = 12 978) in 2017]. CONCLUSION: NP testing in primary care has increased over time, with no evidence of significant inequalities, but most patients with HF still do not have an NP test recorded prior to diagnosis. More NP testing in primary care may be needed to prevent hospitalization and facilitate HF diagnosis at an earlier, more treatable stage.

Prevalent diabetes and risk of total, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers in an ageing population: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether associations between prevalent diabetes and cancer risk are pertinent to older adults and whether associations differ across subgroups of age, body weight status or levels of physical activity. METHODS: We harmonised data from seven prospective cohort studies of older individuals in Europe and the United States participating in the CHANCES consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate the associations of prevalent diabetes with cancer risk (all cancers combined, and for colorectum, prostate and breast). We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts using pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 667,916 individuals were included with an overall median (P25-P75) age at recruitment of 62.3 (57-67) years. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 114,404 total cancer cases were ascertained. Diabetes was not associated with the risk of all cancers combined (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86-1.04; I2 = 63.3%). Diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk in men (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26; I2 = 0%) and a similar HR in women (1.13; 95% CI: 0.82-1.56; I2 = 46%), but with a confidence interval including the null. Diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.85; I2 = 0%), but not with postmenopausal breast cancer (HR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89-1.03; I2 = 0%). In exploratory subgroup analyses, diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk only in men with overweight or obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalent diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk and inversely associated with prostate cancer risk in older Europeans and Americans.

Behavioural interventions for smoking cessation: an overview and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a leading cause of disease and death worldwide. In people who smoke, quitting smoking can reverse much of the damage. Many people use behavioural interventions to help them quit smoking; these interventions can vary substantially in their content and effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: To summarise the evidence from Cochrane Reviews that assessed the effect of behavioural interventions designed to support smoking cessation attempts and to conduct a network meta-analysis to determine how modes of delivery; person delivering the intervention; and the nature, focus, and intensity of behavioural interventions for smoking cessation influence the likelihood of achieving abstinence six months after attempting to stop smoking; and whether the effects of behavioural interventions depend upon other characteristics, including population, setting, and the provision of pharmacotherapy. To summarise the availability and principal findings of economic evaluations of behavioural interventions for smoking cessation, in terms of comparative costs and cost-effectiveness, in the form of a brief economic commentary. METHODS: This work comprises two main elements. 1. We conducted a Cochrane Overview of reviews following standard Cochrane methods. We identified Cochrane Reviews of behavioural interventions (including all non-pharmacological interventions, e.g. counselling, exercise, hypnotherapy, self-help materials) for smoking cessation by searching the Cochrane Library in July 2020. We evaluated the methodological quality of reviews using AMSTAR 2 and synthesised data from the reviews narratively. 2. We used the included reviews to identify randomised controlled trials of behavioural interventions for smoking cessation compared with other behavioural interventions or no intervention for smoking cessation. To be included, studies had to include adult smokers and measure smoking abstinence at six months or longer. Screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment followed standard Cochrane methods. We synthesised data using Bayesian component network meta-analysis (CNMA), examining the effects of 38 different components compared to minimal intervention. Components included behavioural and motivational elements, intervention providers, delivery modes, nature, focus, and intensity of the behavioural intervention. We used component network meta-regression (CNMR) to evaluate the influence of population characteristics, provision of pharmacotherapy, and intervention intensity on the component effects. We evaluated certainty of the evidence using GRADE domains. We assumed an additive effect for individual components. MAIN RESULTS: We included 33 Cochrane Reviews, from which 312 randomised controlled trials, representing 250,563 participants and 845 distinct study arms, met the criteria for inclusion in our component network meta-analysis. This represented 437 different combinations of components. Of the 33 reviews, confidence in review findings was high in four reviews and moderate in nine reviews, as measured by the AMSTAR 2 critical appraisal tool. The remaining 20 reviews were low or critically low due to one or more critical weaknesses, most commonly inadequate investigation or discussion (or both) of the impact of publication bias. Of note, the critical weaknesses identified did not affect the searching, screening, or data extraction elements of the review process, which have direct bearing on our CNMA. Of the included studies, 125/312 were at low risk of bias overall, 50 were at high risk of bias, and the remainder were at unclear risk. Analyses from the contributing reviews and from our CNMA showed behavioural interventions for smoking cessation can increase quit rates, but effectiveness varies on characteristics of the support provided. There was high-certainty evidence of benefit for the provision of counselling (odds ratio (OR) 1.44, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 1.22 to 1.70, 194 studies, n = 72,273) and guaranteed financial incentives (OR 1.46, 95% CrI 1.15 to 1.85, 19 studies, n = 8877). Evidence of benefit remained when removing studies at high risk of bias. These findings were consistent with pair-wise meta-analyses from contributing reviews. There was moderate-certainty evidence of benefit for interventions delivered via text message (downgraded due to unexplained statistical heterogeneity in pair-wise comparison), and for the following components where point estimates suggested benefit but CrIs incorporated no clinically significant difference: individual tailoring; intervention content including motivational components; intervention content focused on how to quit. The remaining intervention components had low-to very low-certainty evidence, with the main issues being imprecision and risk of bias. There was no evidence to suggest an increase in harms in groups receiving behavioural support for smoking cessation. Intervention effects were not changed by adjusting for population characteristics, but data were limited. Increasing intensity of behavioural support, as measured through the number of contacts, duration of each contact, and programme length, had point estimates associated with modestly increased chances of quitting, but CrIs included no difference. The effect of behavioural support for smoking cessation appeared slightly less pronounced when people were already receiving smoking cessation pharmacotherapies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Behavioural support for smoking cessation can increase quit rates at six months or longer, with no evidence that support increases harms. This is the case whether or not smoking cessation pharmacotherapy is also provided, but the effect is slightly more pronounced in the absence of pharmacotherapy. Evidence of benefit is strongest for the provision of any form of counselling, and guaranteed financial incentives. Evidence suggested possible benefit but the need of further studies to evaluate: individual tailoring; delivery via text message, email, and audio recording; delivery by lay health advisor; and intervention content with motivational components and a focus on how to quit. We identified 23 economic evaluations; evidence did not consistently suggest one type of behavioural intervention for smoking cessation was more cost-effective than another. Future reviews should fully consider publication bias. Tools to investigate publication bias and to evaluate certainty in CNMA are needed.

ANTECEDENTES: El tabaquismo es una causa principal de enfermedad y muerte en todo el mundo. En las personas que fuman, dejar de fumar puede revertir gran parte del daño. Muchas personas utilizan intervenciones conductuales para ayudarles a dejar de fumar y estas intervenciones pueden variar considerablemente en contenido y efectividad. OBJETIVOS: Resumir la evidencia de las revisiones Cochrane que evaluaron el efecto de las intervenciones conductuales diseñadas para apoyar los intentos de abandono del hábito de fumar y realizar un metanálisis en red para determinar cómo las modalidades de prestación; la persona que administra la intervención; y la naturaleza, el enfoque y la intensidad de las intervenciones conductuales para el abandono del hábito de fumar influyen en la probabilidad de lograr la abstinencia seis meses después de intentar dejar de fumar; y si los efectos de las intervenciones conductuales dependen de otras características, como la población, el contexto y la administración de farmacoterapia. Resumir la disponibilidad y los hallazgos principales de las evaluaciones económicas de intervenciones conductuales para dejar de fumar, en términos de costes y coste­efectividad, mediante un breve comentario económico. MÉTODOS: Este artículo comprende dos elementos principales. 1. Se realizó una revisión global Cochrane de revisiones según los métodos estándar de Cochrane. Mediante una búsqueda en la Biblioteca Cochrane en julio de 2020 se identificaron las revisiones Cochrane de intervenciones conductuales (incluidas todas las intervenciones no farmacológicas, p.ej., orientación, ejercicio, hipnoterapia, materiales de autoayuda) para el abandono del hábito de fumar. La calidad metodológica de las revisiones se evaluó mediante AMSTAR 2 y los datos de las revisiones se resumieron de manera narrativa. 2. Las revisiones incluidas se utilizaron para identificar los ensayos controlados aleatorizados de intervenciones conductuales para el abandono del hábito de fumar en comparación con otras intervenciones conductuales o ninguna intervención para el abandono del hábito de fumar. Para ser incluidos, los estudios debían incluir a fumadores adultos y medir la abstinencia de fumar a los seis meses o más. La selección, la extracción de los datos y la evaluación del riesgo de sesgo siguieron los métodos Cochrane estándar. Los datos se resumieron mediante un metanálisis en red de componentes (MARC) bayesiano, y se examinaron los efectos de 38 componentes diferentes en comparación con una intervención mínima. Los componentes incluyeron elementos conductuales y motivacionales, proveedores de la intervención, modos de administración, naturaleza, enfoque e intensidad de la intervención conductual. Se utilizó la metarregresión en red de componentes (MRRC) para evaluar la influencia de las características de la población, la administración de farmacoterapia y la intensidad de la intervención sobre los efectos de los componentes. La certeza de la evidencia se evaluó mediante los dominios de GRADE. Se presupuso un efecto aditivo para los componentes individuales. RESULTADOS PRINCIPALES: Se incluyeron 33 revisiones Cochrane, de las cuales 312 ensayos controlados aleatorizados, que representaban a 250 563 participantes y 845 grupos de estudio distintos, cumplieron los criterios para su inclusión en el metanálisis en red de componentes. Esto representó 437 combinaciones diferentes de componentes. De las 33 revisiones, la confianza en los hallazgos de la revisión fue alta en cuatro y moderada en nueve, medida con la herramienta de lectura crítica AMSTAR 2. Las 20 revisiones restantes tuvieron una confianza baja o críticamente baja debido a una o más deficiencias graves, las más habituales fueron una investigación o discusión (o ambas) insuficiente acerca del impacto del sesgo de publicación. Cabe señalar que las debilidades críticas identificadas no afectaron los elementos de la búsqueda, la selección o la extracción de los datos del proceso de revisión, que mantienen una relación directa en este MARC. Entre los estudios incluidos, 125/312 tuvieron un riesgo general de sesgo bajo, 50 un riesgo de sesgo alto y el resto un riesgo de sesgo poco claro. Los análisis de las revisiones contribuyentes y de este MARC mostraron que las intervenciones conductuales para dejar de fumar pueden aumentar las tasas de abandono del hábito, pero la efectividad varía según las características del apoyo proporcionado. Hubo evidencia de certeza alta de un efecto beneficioso de la prestación de orientación (odds ratio [OR] 1,44; intervalo de credibilidad [ICr] del 95%: 1,22 a 1,70, 194 estudios, n = 72 273) y de los incentivos económicos garantizados (OR 1,46; ICr del 95% 1,15 a 1,85, 19 estudios, n = 8877). La evidencia de un efecto beneficioso se mantuvo cuando se eliminaron los estudios con alto riesgo de sesgo. Estos hallazgos fueron concordantes con los metanálisis pareados de las revisiones contribuyentes. Hubo evidencia de certeza moderada de un efecto beneficioso de las intervenciones administradas a través de mensajes de texto (la certeza se disminuyó debido a una heterogeneidad estadística inexplicada en la comparación pareada), y de los siguientes componentes en los que las estimaciones puntuales indicaron un efecto beneficioso pero los ICr no incorporaron una diferencia clínicamente significativa: personalización; contenido de la intervención con componentes motivacionales; contenido de la intervención centrado en cómo dejar de fumar. Los otros componentes de la intervención tuvieron evidencia de certeza muy baja a baja, y sus problemas principales fueron la imprecisión y el riesgo de sesgo. No hubo evidencia que indicara un aumento de los efectos perjudiciales en los grupos que recibieron apoyo conductual para dejar de fumar. Los efectos de la intervención no cambiaron al ajustar las características de la población, pero los datos fueron limitados. El aumento de la intensidad del apoyo conductual, medido a través del número de contactos, la duración de cada contacto y la duración del programa, tuvo estimaciones puntuales asociadas con un modesto aumento de las posibilidades de dejar de fumar, pero los ICr no incluyeron una diferencia. El efecto del apoyo conductual para dejar de fumar pareció ser ligeramente menos pronunciado cuando las personas ya recibían farmacoterapias para dejar de fumar. CONCLUSIONES DE LOS AUTORES: El apoyo conductual para dejar de fumar puede aumentar las tasas de abandono a los seis meses o más, sin evidencia de que este apoyo aumente los efectos perjudiciales. Esto es así tanto si se proporciona una farmacoterapia para dejar de fumar como si no, pero el efecto es ligeramente más pronunciado sin farmacoterapia. La evidencia de un efecto beneficioso es más sólida para la prestación de cualquier tipo de orientación y de incentivos económicos garantizados. La evidencia indicó un posible efecto beneficioso, pero la necesidad de realizar más estudios para evaluar: la personalización; la administración mediante mensajes de texto, correos electrónicos y grabaciones de audio; la administración por parte de un asesor de salud no profesional; y el contenido de la intervención con componentes motivacionales y centrada en cómo dejar de fumar. Se identificaron 23 evaluaciones económicas; la evidencia no indicó de manera homogénea que un tipo de intervención conductual para el abandono del hábito de fumar fuera más coste­efectiva que otra. Las revisiones futuras deberían examinar a fondo el sesgo de publicación. Se necesitan herramientas para investigar el sesgo de publicación y evaluar la certeza en MARC.

Relationship between microbiology of throat swab and clinical course among primary care patients with acute cough: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs) account for most antibiotics prescribed in primary care despite lack of efficacy, partly due to clinician uncertainty about aetiology and patient concerns about illness course. Nucleic acid amplification tests could assist antibiotic targeting. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 645 patients presenting to primary care with acute cough and suspected ALRTI, provided throat swabs at baseline. These were tested for respiratory pathogens by real-time polymerase chain reaction and classified as having a respiratory virus, bacteria, both or neither. Three hundred fifty-four participants scored the symptoms severity daily for 1 week in a diary (0 = absent to 4 = severe problem). RESULTS: Organisms were identified in 346/645 (53.6%) participants. There were differences in the prevalence of seven symptoms between the organism groups at baseline. Those with a virus alone, and those with both virus and bacteria, had higher average severity scores of all symptoms combined during the week of follow-up than those in whom no organisms were detected [adjusted mean differences 0.204 (95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.398) and 0.348 (0.098 to 0.598), respectively]. There were no differences in the duration of symptoms rated as moderate or severe between organism groups. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in presenting symptoms and symptoms severity can be identified between patients with viruses and bacteria identified on throat swabs. The magnitude of these differences is unlikely to influence management. Most patients had mild symptoms at 7 days regardless of aetiology, which could inform patients about likely symptom duration.

Prominent positioning and food swaps are effective interventions to reduce the saturated fat content of the shopping basket in an experimental online supermarket: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Interventions to reduce the saturated fat (SFA) content of food purchases may help reduce SFA consumption and lower cardiovascular risk. This factorial RCT aimed to examine the effect of altering the default order of foods and being offered a swap on the SFA content of food selected during an online shopping experiment. METHODS: UK adults who were the primary grocery shoppers for their household were recruited online and invited to select items in a custom-made experimental online supermarket using a 10-item shopping list. Participants were randomly allocated to one of four groups (i) to see products within a category ranked in ascending order of SFA content, (ii) receive an offer to swap to a product with less SFA, (iii) a combination of both interventions, or (iv) no intervention. The primary outcome was the difference in percentage energy from SFA in the shopping basket between any of the four groups. The outcome assessors and statistician were blinded to intervention allocation. RESULTS: Between March and July 2018, 1240 participants were evenly randomised and 1088 who completed the task were analysed (88%). Participants were 65% female and aged 38y (SD 12). Compared with no intervention (n = 275) where the percentage energy from SFA was 25.7% (SD 5.6%), altering the order of foods (n = 261) reduced SFA by [mean difference (95%CI)] -5.0% (- 6.3 to - 3.6) and offering swaps (n = 279) by - 2.0% (- 3.3 to - 0.6). The combined intervention (n = 273) was significantly more effective than swaps alone (- 3.4% (- 4.7 to - 2.1)) but not different than altering the order alone (- 0.4% (- 1.8 to 0.9)), p = 0.04 for interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Altering the default order to show foods in ascending order of SFA and offering a swap with lower SFA reduced percentage energy from SFA in an experimental online supermarket. Environmental-level interventions, such as altering the default order, may be a more promising way to improve food purchasing than individual-level ones, such as offering swaps. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13729526 https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN13729526 26th February 2018.

Telephone counselling for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: Telephone services can provide information and support for smokers. Counselling may be provided proactively or offered reactively to callers to smoking cessation helplines. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of telephone support to help smokers quit, including proactive or reactive counselling, or the provision of other information to smokers calling a helpline. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group Specialised Register, clinicaltrials.gov, and the ICTRP for studies of telephone counselling, using search terms including 'hotlines' or 'quitline' or 'helpline'. Date of the most recent search: May 2018. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials which offered proactive or reactive telephone counselling to smokers to assist smoking cessation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We pooled studies using a random-effects model and assessed statistical heterogeneity amongst subgroups of clinically comparable studies using the I2 statistic. In trials including smokers who did not call a quitline, we used meta-regression to investigate moderation of the effect of telephone counselling by the planned number of calls in the intervention, trial selection of participants that were motivated to quit, and the baseline support provided together with telephone counselling (either self-help only, brief face-to-face intervention, pharmacotherapy, or financial incentives). MAIN RESULTS: We identified 104 trials including 111,653 participants that met the inclusion criteria. Participants were mostly adult smokers from the general population, but some studies included teenagers, pregnant women, and people with long-term or mental health conditions. Most trials (58.7%) were at high risk of bias, while 30.8% were at unclear risk, and only 11.5% were at low risk of bias for all domains assessed. Most studies (100/104) assessed proactive telephone counselling, as opposed to reactive forms.Among trials including smokers who contacted helplines (32,484 participants), quit rates were higher for smokers receiving multiple sessions of proactive counselling (risk ratio (RR) 1.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 1.61; 14 trials, 32,484 participants; I2 = 72%) compared with a control condition providing self-help materials or brief counselling in a single call. Due to the substantial unexplained heterogeneity between studies, we downgraded the certainty of the evidence to moderate.In studies that recruited smokers who did not call a helpline, the provision of telephone counselling increased quit rates (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.35; 65 trials, 41,233 participants; I2 = 52%). Due to the substantial unexplained heterogeneity between studies, we downgraded the certainty of the evidence to moderate. In subgroup analysis, we found no evidence that the effect of telephone counselling depended upon whether or not other interventions were provided (P = 0.21), no evidence that more intensive support was more effective than less intensive (P = 0.43), or that the effect of telephone support depended upon whether or not people were actively trying to quit smoking (P = 0.32). However, in meta-regression, telephone counselling was associated with greater effectiveness when provided as an adjunct to self-help written support (P < 0.01), or to a brief intervention from a health professional (P = 0.02); telephone counselling was less effective when provided as an adjunct to more intensive counselling. Further, telephone support was more effective for people who were motivated to try to quit smoking (P = 0.02). The findings from three additional trials of smokers who had not proactively called a helpline but were offered telephone counselling, found quit rates were higher in those offered three to five telephone calls compared to those offered just one call (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44; 2602 participants; I2 = 0%). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-certainty evidence that proactive telephone counselling aids smokers who seek help from quitlines, and moderate-certainty evidence that proactive telephone counselling increases quit rates in smokers in other settings. There is currently insufficient evidence to assess potential variations in effect from differences in the number of contacts, type or timing of telephone counselling, or when telephone counselling is provided as an adjunct to other smoking cessation therapies. Evidence was inconclusive on the effect of reactive telephone counselling, due to a limited number studies, which reflects the difficulty of studying this intervention.

Print-based self-help interventions for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: Many smokers give up smoking on their own, but materials that provide a structured programme for smokers to follow may increase the number who quit successfully. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this review were to determine the effectiveness of different forms of print-based self-help materials that provide a structured programme for smokers to follow, compared with no treatment and with other minimal contact strategies, and to determine the comparative effectiveness of different components and characteristics of print-based self-help, such as computer-generated feedback, additional materials, tailoring of materials to individuals, and targeting of materials at specific groups. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). The date of the most recent search was March 2018. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised trials of smoking cessation with follow-up of at least six months, where at least one arm tested print-based materials providing self-help compared with minimal print-based self-help (such as a short leaflet) or a lower-intensity control. We defined 'self-help' as structured programming for smokers trying to quit without intensive contact with a therapist. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data in accordance with standard methodological procedures set out by Cochrane. The main outcome measure was abstinence from smoking after at least six months' follow-up in people smoking at baseline. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence in each study and biochemically validated rates when available. Where appropriate, we performed meta-analysis using a random-effects model. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 75 studies that met our inclusion criteria. Many study reports did not include sufficient detail to allow judgement of risk of bias for some domains. We judged 30 studies (40%) to be at high risk of bias for one or more domains.Thirty-five studies evaluated the effects of standard, non-tailored self-help materials. Eleven studies compared self-help materials alone with no intervention and found a small effect in favour of the intervention (n = 13,241; risk ratio (RR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.37; I² = 0%). We judged the evidence to be of moderate certainty in accordance with GRADE, downgraded for indirect relevance to populations in low- and middle-income countries because evidence for this comparison came from studies conducted solely in high-income countries and there is reason to believe the intervention might work differently in low- and middle-income countries. This analysis excluded two studies by the same author team with strongly positive outcomes that were clear outliers and introduced significant heterogeneity. Six further studies of structured self-help compared with brief leaflets did not show evidence of an effect of self-help materials on smoking cessation (n = 7023; RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.07; I² = 21%). We found evidence of benefit from standard self-help materials when there was brief contact that did not include smoking cessation advice (4 studies; n = 2822; RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.88; I² = 0%), but not when self-help was provided as an adjunct to face-to-face smoking cessation advice for all participants (11 studies; n = 5365; RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.28; I² = 32%).Thirty-two studies tested materials tailored for the characteristics of individual smokers, with controls receiving no materials, or stage-matched or non-tailored materials. Most of these studies used more than one mailing. Pooling studies that compared tailored self-help with no self-help, either on its own or compared with advice, or as an adjunct to advice, showed a benefit of providing tailored self-help interventions (12 studies; n = 19,190; RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.49; I² = 0%) with little evidence of difference between subgroups (10 studies compared tailored with no materials, n = 14,359; RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.51; I² = 0%; two studies compared tailored materials with brief advice, n = 2992; RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.49; I² = 0%; and two studies evaluated tailored materials as an adjunct to brief advice, n = 1839; RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.53; I² = 10%). When studies compared tailored self-help with non-tailored self-help, results favoured tailored interventions when the tailored interventions involved more mailings than the non-tailored interventions (9 studies; n = 14,166; RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.68; I² = 0%), but not when the two conditions were contact-matched (10 studies; n = 11,024; RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.30; I² = 50%). We judged the evidence to be of moderate certainty in accordance with GRADE, downgraded for risk of bias.Five studies evaluated self-help materials as an adjunct to nicotine replacement therapy; pooling three of these provided no evidence of additional benefit (n = 1769; RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.30; I² = 0%). Four studies evaluating additional written materials favoured the intervention, but the lower confidence interval crossed the line of no effect (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.58; I² = 73%). A small number of other studies did not detect benefit from using targeted materials, or find differences between different self-help programmes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Moderate-certainty evidence shows that when no other support is available, written self-help materials help more people to stop smoking than no intervention. When people receive advice from a health professional or are using nicotine replacement therapy, there is no evidence that self-help materials add to their effect. However, small benefits cannot be excluded. Moderate-certainty evidence shows that self-help materials that use data from participants to tailor the nature of the advice or support given are more effective than no intervention. However, when tailored self-help materials, which typically involve repeated assessment and mailing, were compared with untailored materials delivered similarly, there was no evidence of benefit.Available evidence tested self-help interventions in high-income countries, where more intensive support is often available. Further research is needed to investigate effects of these interventions in low- and middle-income countries, where more intensive support may not be available.

Smoking reduction interventions for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: The standard way most people are advised to stop smoking is by quitting abruptly on a designated quit day. However, many people who smoke have tried to quit many times and may like to try an alternative method. Reducing smoking behaviour before quitting could be an alternative approach to cessation. However, before this method can be recommended it is important to ensure that abrupt quitting is not more effective than reducing to quit, and to determine whether there are ways to optimise reduction methods to increase the chances of cessation. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of reduction-to-quit interventions on long-term smoking cessation. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group Specialised Register, MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO for studies, using the terms: cold turkey, schedul*, cut* down, cut-down, gradual*, abrupt*, fading, reduc*, taper*, controlled smoking and smoking reduction. We also searched trial registries to identify unpublished studies. Date of the most recent search: 29 October 2018. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials in which people who smoked were advised to reduce their smoking consumption before quitting smoking altogether in at least one trial arm. This advice could be delivered using self-help materials or behavioural support, and provided alongside smoking cessation pharmacotherapies or not. We excluded trials that did not assess cessation as an outcome, with follow-up of less than six months, where participants spontaneously reduced without being advised to do so, where the goal of reduction was not to quit altogether, or where participants were advised to switch to cigarettes with lower nicotine levels without reducing the amount of cigarettes smoked or the length of time spent smoking. We also excluded trials carried out in pregnant women. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We followed standard Cochrane methods. Smoking cessation was measured after at least six months, using the most rigorous definition available, on an intention-to-treat basis. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for smoking cessation for each study, where possible. We grouped eligible studies according to the type of comparison (no smoking cessation treatment, abrupt quitting interventions, and other reduction-to-quit interventions) and carried out meta-analyses where appropriate, using a Mantel-Haenszel random-effects model. We also extracted data on quit attempts, pre-quit smoking reduction, adverse events (AEs), serious adverse events (SAEs) and nicotine withdrawal symptoms, and meta-analysed these where sufficient data were available. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 51 trials with 22,509 participants. Most recruited adults from the community using media or local advertising. People enrolled in the studies typically smoked an average of 23 cigarettes a day. We judged 18 of the studies to be at high risk of bias, but restricting the analysis only to the five studies at low or to the 28 studies at unclear risk of bias did not significantly alter results.We identified very low-certainty evidence, limited by risk of bias, inconsistency and imprecision, comparing the effect of reduction-to-quit interventions with no treatment on cessation rates (RR 1.74, 95% CI 0.90 to 3.38; I2 = 45%; 6 studies, 1599 participants). However, when comparing reduction-to-quit interventions with abrupt quitting (standard care) we found evidence that neither approach resulted in superior quit rates (RR 1. 01, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.17; I2 = 29%; 22 studies, 9219 participants). We judged this estimate to be of moderate certainty, due to imprecision. Subgroup analysis provided some evidence (P = 0.01, I2 = 77%) that reduction-to-quit interventions may result in more favourable quit rates than abrupt quitting if varenicline is used as a reduction aid. Our analysis comparing reduction using pharmacotherapy with reduction alone found low-certainty evidence, limited by inconsistency and imprecision, that reduction aided by pharmacotherapy resulted in higher quit rates (RR 1. 68, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.58; I2 = 78%; 11 studies, 8636 participants). However, a significant subgroup analysis (P < 0.001, I2 = 80% for subgroup differences) suggests that this may only be true when fast-acting NRT or varenicline are used (both moderate-certainty evidence) and not when nicotine patch, combination NRT or bupropion are used as an aid (all low- or very low-quality evidence). More evidence is likely to change the interpretation of the latter effects.Although there was some evidence from within-study comparisons that behavioural support for reduction to quit resulted in higher quit rates than self-help resources alone, the relative efficacy of various other characteristics of reduction-to-quit interventions investigated through within- and between-study comparisons did not provide any evidence that they enhanced the success of reduction-to-quit interventions. Pre-quit AEs, SAEs and nicotine withdrawal symptoms were measured variably and infrequently across studies. There was some evidence that AEs occurred more frequently in studies that compared reduction using pharmacotherapy versus no pharmacotherapy; however, the AEs reported were mild and usual symptoms associated with NRT use. There was no clear evidence that the number of people reporting SAEs, or changes in withdrawal symptoms, differed between trial arms. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-certainty evidence that neither reduction-to-quit nor abrupt quitting interventions result in superior long-term quit rates when compared with one another. Evidence comparing the efficacy of reduction-to-quit interventions with no treatment was inconclusive and of low certainty. There is also low-certainty evidence to suggest that reduction-to-quit interventions may be more effective when pharmacotherapy is used as an aid, particularly fast-acting NRT or varenicline (moderate-certainty evidence). Evidence for any adverse effects of reduction-to-quit interventions was sparse, but available data suggested no excess of pre-quit SAEs or withdrawal symptoms. We downgraded the evidence across comparisons due to risk of bias, inconsistency and imprecision. Future research should aim to match any additional components of multicomponent reduction-to-quit interventions across study arms, so that the effect of reduction can be isolated. In particular, well-conducted, adequately-powered studies should focus on investigating the most effective features of reduction-to-quit interventions to maximise cessation rates.

Limited evidence for diagnosing bacterial skin infections in older adults in primary care: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with bacterial skin infections may present with atypical symptoms, making diagnosis difficult. There is limited authoritative guidance on how older adults in the community present with bacterial skin infections. To date there have been no systematic reviews assessing the diagnostic value of symptoms and signs in identifying bacterial skin infections in older adults in the community. METHODS: We searched Medline and Medline in process, Embase and Web of Science, from inception to September 2017. We included cohort and cross-sectional studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs in predicting bacterial skin infections in adults in primary care aged over 65 years. The QUADAS-2 tool was used to assess study quality. RESULTS: We identified two observational studies of low-moderate quality, with a total of 7991 participants, providing data to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of 5 unique symptoms in predicting bacterial skin infections. The presence of wounds [LR+: 7.93 (CI 4.81-13.1)], pressure sores [LR+: 4.85 (CI 2.18-10.8)] and skin ulcers [LR+: 6.26 (CI 5.49-7.13)] help to diagnose bacterial skin infections. The presence of urinary incontinence does not help to predict bacterial skin infections (LR + 's of 0.99 and 1.04; LR-'s of 0.96 and 1.04). CONCLUSIONS: Currently, there is insufficient evidence to inform the diagnosis of bacterial skin infections in older adults in the community; clinicians should therefore rely upon their clinical judgement and experience. Evidence from high quality primary care studies in older adults, including studies assessing symptoms traditionally associated with bacterial skin infections (e.g. erythema and warmth), is urgently needed to guide practice.

Comparative efficacy of drugs for treating giardiasis: a systematic update of the literature and network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Background: Giardiasis is the commonest intestinal protozoal infection worldwide. The current first-choice therapy is metronidazole. Recently, other drugs with potentially higher efficacy or with fewer and milder side effects have increased in popularity, but evidence is limited by a scarcity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the many treatment options available. Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a useful tool to compare multiple treatments when there is limited or no direct evidence available. Objectives: To compare the efficacy and side effects of all available drugs for the treatment of giardiasis. Methods: We selected all RCTs included in systematic reviews and expert reviews of all treatments for giardiasis published until 2014, extended the systematic literature search until 2016, and identified new studies by scanning reference lists for relevant studies. We then conducted an NMA of all available treatments for giardiasis by comparing parasitological cure (efficacy) and side effects. Results: We identified 60 RCTs from 58 reports (46 from published systematic reviews, 8 from reference lists and 4 from the updated systematic search). Data from 6714 patients, 18 treatments and 42 treatment comparisons were available. Tinidazole was associated with higher parasitological cure than metronidazole [relative risk (RR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.12-1.35] and albendazole (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.21-1.50). Taking into consideration clinical efficacy, side effects and amount of the evidence, tinidazole was found to be the most effective drug. Conclusions: We provide additional evidence that single-dose tinidazole is the best available treatment for giardiasis in symptomatic and asymptomatic children and adults.

Disparities in COVID-19 mortality amongst the immunosuppressed: A systematic review and meta-analysis for enhanced disease surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Effective disease surveillance, including that for COVID-19, is compromised without a standardised method for categorising the immunosuppressed as a clinical risk group. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate whether excess COVID-associated mortality compared to the immunocompetent could meaningfully subdivide the immunosuppressed. Our study adhered to UK Immunisation against infectious disease (Green Book) criteria for defining and categorising immunosuppression. Using OVID (EMBASE, MEDLINE, Transplant Library, and Global Health), PubMed, and Google Scholar, we examined relevant literature between the entirety of 2020 and 2022. We selected for cohort studies that provided mortality data for immunosuppressed subgroups and immunocompetent comparators. Meta-analyses, grey literature and any original works that failed to provide comparator data or reported all-cause or paediatric outcomes were excluded. Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of COVID-19 mortality were meta-analysed by immunosuppressed category and subcategory. Subgroup analyses differentiated estimates by effect measure, country income, study setting, level of adjustment, use of matching and publication year. Study screening, extraction and bias assessment were performed blinded and independently by two researchers; conflicts were resolved with the oversight of a third researcher. PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022360755. FINDINGS: We identified 99 unique studies, incorporating data from 1,542,097 and 56,248,181 unique immunosuppressed and immunocompetent patients with COVID-19 infection, respectively. Compared to immunocompetent people (pooled OR, 95%CI), solid organ transplants (2.12, 1.50-2.99) and malignancy (2.02, 1.69-2.42) patients had a very high risk of COVID-19 mortality. Patients with rheumatological conditions (1.28, 1.13-1.45) and HIV (1.20, 1.05-1.36) had just slightly higher risks than the immunocompetent baseline. Case type, setting income and mortality data matching and adjustment were significant modifiers of excess immunosuppressed mortality for some immunosuppressed subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Excess COVID-associated mortality among the immunosuppressed compared to the immunocompetent was seen to vary significantly across subgroups. This novel means of subdivision has prospective benefit for targeting patient triage, shielding and vaccination policies during periods of high disease transmission.

Implementation of chronic kidney disease guidelines for sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor use in primary care in the UK: a cross-sectional study.

Background: The cardiovascular and kidney benefits of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are well established. The implementation of updated SGLT2 inhibitor guidelines and prescribing in the real-world CKD population remains largely unknown. Methods: A cross-sectional study of adults with CKD registered with UK primary care practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre network on the 31st December 2022 was undertaken. Pseudonymised data from electronic health records held securely within the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) were extracted. An update to a previously described ontological approach was used to identify the study population, using a combination of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) indicating a diagnosis of CKD and laboratory confirmed CKD based on Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) diagnostic criteria. We examined the extent to which SGLT2 inhibitor guidelines apply to and are then implemented in adults with CKD. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing, reported as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The four guidelines under investigation were the United Kingdom Kidney Association (UKKA) Clinical Practice Guideline SGLT2 Inhibition in Adults with Kidney Disease (October 2021), American Diabetes Association (ADA) and KDIGO Consensus Report on Diabetes Management in CKD (October 2022), National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Guideline Type 2 Diabetes in Adults: Management (June 2022), and NICE Technology Appraisal Dapagliflozin for Treating CKD (March 2022). Findings: Of 6,670,829 adults, we identified 516,491 (7.7%) with CKD, including 32.8% (n = 169,443) who had co-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D). 26.8% (n = 138,183) of the overall CKD population had a guideline directed indication for SGLT2 inhibitor treatment. A higher proportion of people with CKD and co-existing T2D were indicated for treatment, compared to those without T2D (62.8% [n = 106,468] vs. 9.1% [n = 31,715]). SGLT2 inhibitors were prescribed to 17.0% (n = 23,466) of those with an indication for treatment, and prescriptions were predominantly in those with co-existing T2D; 22.0% (n = 23,464) in those with T2D, and <0.1% (n = 2) in those without T2D. In adjusted multivariable analysis of people with CKD and T2D, females (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.67-0.72, p <0.0001), individuals of Black ethnicity (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91, p <0.0001) and those of lower socio-economic status (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.76, p <0.0001) were less likely to be prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor. Those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 had a lower likelihood of receiving an SGLT2 inhibitor, compared to those with an eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (eGFR 45-60 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68, p <0.0001, eGFR 30-45 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.69-0.78, p <0.0001, eGFR 15-30 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46-0.60, p <0.0001, eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.00-0.23, p = 0.0037, respectively). Those with albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio 3-30 mg/mmol) were less likely to be prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor, compared to those without albuminuria (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.82, p <0.0001). Interpretation: SGLT2 inhibitor guidelines in CKD have not yet been successfully implemented into clinical practice, most notably in those without co-existing T2D. Individuals at higher risk of adverse outcomes are paradoxically less likely to receive SGLT2 inhibitor treatment. The timeframe between the publication of guidelines and data extraction may have been too short to observe changes in clinical practice. Enhanced efforts to embed SGLT2 inhibitors equitably into routine care for people with CKD are urgently needed, particularly in those at highest risk of adverse outcomes and in the absence of T2D. Funding: None.

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentration and total cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies on the association of 25(OH)D with total cancer incidence and mortality. METHOD: Relevant longitudinal observational studies were identified by systematically searching Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Knowledge databases. Due to the heterogeneity across studies in categorizing 25(OH)D concentration, all results were recalculated for an increase of 25(OH)D by 50 nmol/L. RESULTS: In meta-analyses with random effects models, the summary risk ratios and confidence intervals (RRs (95% CI)) for the association of an increase of 25(OH)D by 50 nmol/L with total cancer incidence (5 studies) and mortality (13 studies) were 0.89 (0.81, 0.97) and 0.83 (0.71, 0.96), respectively. In sex-specific analyses no significant association with total cancer incidence was observed among men or women. A clear inverse association with total cancer mortality was observed among women (0.76 (0.60, 0.98)) but not among men (0.92 (0.65, 1.32)). Large heterogeneity was observed for studies on total cancer mortality (P<0.01) but not for studies on cancer incidence (P=0.41). No publication bias was found. CONCLUSION: The meta-analysis suggests a moderate inverse association of 25(OH)D concentration with total cancer incidence and mortality.

Body mass index and survival in people with heart failure.

AIMS: In people with heart failure (HF), a high body mass index (BMI) has been linked with better outcomes ('obesity paradox'), but there is limited evidence in community populations across long-term follow-up. We aimed to examine the association between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF in a large primary care cohort. METHODS: We included patients with incident HF aged ≥45 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017). We used Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression and penalised spline methods to assess the association of pre-diagnostic BMI, based on WHO classification, with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There were 47 531 participants with HF (median age 78.0 years (IQR 70-84), 45.8% female, 79.0% white ethnicity, median BMI 27.1 (IQR 23.9-31.0)) and 25 013 (52.6%) died during follow-up. Compared with healthy weight, people with overweight (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.81, risk difference (RD) -4.1%), obesity class I (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80, RD -4.5%) and class II (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.81, RD -4.5%) were at decreased risk of death, whereas people with underweight were at increased risk (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.75, RD 11.2%). In those underweight, this risk was greater among men than women (p value for interaction=0.02). Class III obesity was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with overweight (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.29). CONCLUSION: The U-shaped relationship between BMI and long-term all-cause mortality suggests a personalised approach to identifying optimal weight may be needed for patients with HF in primary care. Underweight people have the poorest prognosis and should be recognised as high-risk.