Patient-reported Reasons for Stopping Care or Switching Clinics in Zambia: A Multisite, Regionally Representative Estimate Using a Multistage Sampling-based Approach in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding patient-reported reasons for lapses of retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment can drive improvements in the care cascade. A systematic assessment of outcomes among a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from 32 clinics in Zambia to understand the reasons for silent transfers and disengagement from care was undertaken. METHODS: We traced a simple random sample of LTFU patients (>90 days from last scheduled visit) as determined from clinic-based electronic medical records from a probability sample of facilities. Among patients found in person, we solicited reasons for either stopping or switching care and predictors for re-engagement. We coded reasons into structural, psychosocial, and clinic-based barriers. RESULTS: Among 1751 LTFU patients traced and found alive, 31% of patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1 July 2013 and 31 July 2015 silently transferred or were disengaged (40% male; median age, 35 years; median CD4 level, 239 cells/µL); median time on ART at LTFU was 480 days (interquartile range, 110-1295). Among the 544 patients not in care, median prevalences for patient-reported structural, psychosocial, and clinic-level barriers were 27.3%, 13.9%, and 13.4%, respectively, and were highly variable across facilities. Structural reasons, including, "relocated to a new place" were mostly cited among 289 patients who silently transferred (35.5%). We found that men were less likely to re-engage in care than women (odds ratio, .39; 95% confidence interval, .22-.67; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to improve retention of patients on ART may need to be tailored at the facility level to address patient-reported barriers.

Relationship between symptoms, barriers to care and healthcare utilisation among children under five in rural Mali.

OBJECTIVES: To identify social and structural barriers to timely utilisation of qualified providers among children under five years in a high-mortality setting, rural Mali and to analyse how utilisation varies by symptom manifestation. METHODS: Using baseline household survey data from a cluster-randomised trial, we assessed symptom patterns and healthcare trajectories of 5117 children whose mothers reported fever, diarrhoea, bloody stools, cough and/or fast breathing in the preceding two weeks. We examine associations between socio-demographic factors, symptoms and utilisation outcomes in mixed-effect logistic regressions. RESULTS: Almost half of recently ill children reported multiple symptoms (46.2%). Over half (55.9%) received any treatment, while less than one-quarter (21.7%) received care from a doctor, nurse, midwife, trained community health worker or pharmacist within 24 h of symptom onset. Distance to primary health facility, household wealth and maternal education were consistently associated with better utilisation outcomes. While children with potentially more severe symptoms such as fever and cough with fast breathing or diarrhoea with bloody stools were more likely to receive any care, they were no more likely than children with fever to receive timely care with a qualified provider. CONCLUSIONS: Even distances as short as 2-5 km significantly reduced children's likelihood of utilising healthcare relative to those within 2 km of a facility. While children with symptoms indicative of pneumonia and malaria were more likely to receive any care, suggesting mothers and caregivers recognised potentially severe illness, multiple barriers to care contributed to delays and low utilisation of qualified providers, illustrating the need for improved consideration of barriers.

Household factors and under-five mortality in Bankass, Mali: results from a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Rural parts of Mali carry a disproportionate burden of the country's high under-five mortality rate. A range of household factors are associated with poor under-five health in resource-limited settings. However, it is unknown which most influence the under-five mortality rate in rural Mali. We aimed to describe household factors associated with under-five mortality in Bankass, a remote region in central Mali. METHODS: We analysed baseline household survey data from a trial being conducted in Bankass. The survey was administered to households between December 2016 and January 2017. Under-five deaths in the five years prior to baseline were documented along with detailed information on household factors and women's birth histories. Factors associated with under-five mortality were analysed using Cox regression. RESULTS: Our study population comprised of 17,408 under-five children from 8322 households. In the five years prior to baseline, the under-five mortality rate was 152.6 per 1000 live births (158.8 and 146.0 per 1000 live births for males and females, respectively). Living a greater distance from a primary health center was associated with a higher probability of under-five mortality for both males (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.53 for ≥10 km versus < 2 km, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.88) and females (aHR 1.59 for ≥10 km versus < 2 km, 95% CI 1.27-1.99). Under-five male mortality was additionally associated with lower household wealth quintile (aHR 1.47 for poorest versus wealthiest, 95%CI 1.21-1.78), lower reading ability among women of reproductive age in the household (aHR 1.73 for cannot read versus can read, 95%CI 1.04-2.86), and living in a household with access to electricity (aHR 1.16 for access versus no access, 95%CI 1.00-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: U5 mortality is very high in Bankass and is associated with living a greater distance from healthcare and several other household factors that may be amenable to intervention or facilitate program targeting.

Longitudinal Care Cascade Outcomes Among People Eligible for Antiretroviral Therapy Who Are Newly Linking to Care in Zambia: A Multistate Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is dynamic, with patients frequently transitioning in and out of care. Analytical approaches (eg, survival analyses) commonly used to assess HIV care cascade outcomes fail to capture such transitions and therefore incompletely represent care outcomes over time. METHODS: We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eligible adults newly linking to care at 64 clinics in Zambia between 1 April 2014 and 31 July 2015. We used electronic medical record data and supplemented these with updated care outcomes ascertained by tracing a multistage random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last appointment). We performed multistate analyses, incorporating weights from sampling, to estimate the prevalence of 9 care states over time since linkage with respect to ART initiation, retention in care, transfers, and mortality. RESULTS: In sum, 23 227 patients (58% female; median age 34 years [interquartile range 28-41]) were ART-eligible at enrollment. At 1 year, 75.2% had initiated ART and were in care: 61.8% were continuously retained, 6.1% had reengaged after LTFU, and 7.3% had transferred. Also, 10.1% were LTFU within 7 days of enrollment, and 15.2% were LTFU at 1 year (6.7% prior to ART). One year after LTFU, 51.6% of those LTFU prior to ART remained out of care compared to 30.2% of those LTFU after initiating ART. Overall, 6.9% of patients had died by 1 year with 3.0% dying prior to ART. CONCLUSION: Multistate analyses provide more complete assessments of longitudinal HIV cascade outcomes and reveal treatment gaps at distinct timepoints in care that will still need to be addressed even with universal treatment.

Mortality estimates by age and sex among persons living with HIV after ART initiation in Zambia using electronic medical records supplemented with tracing a sample of lost patients: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Men in sub-Saharan Africa have lower engagement and retention in HIV services compared to women, which may result in differential survival. However, the true magnitude of difference in HIV-related mortality between men and women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is incompletely characterized. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated HIV-positive adults ≥18 years old newly initiating ART in 4 Zambian provinces (Eastern, Lusaka, Southern, and Western). In addition to mortality data obtained from routine electronic medical records, we intensively traced a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) and incorporated tracing outcomes through inverse probability weights. Sex-specific mortality rates and rate differences were determined using Poisson regression. Parametric g-computation was used to estimate adjusted mortality rates by sex and age. The study included 49,129 adults newly initiated on ART between August 2013 and July 2015; overall, the median age among patients was 35 years, the median baseline CD4 count was 262 cells/µl, and 37.2% were men. Men comprised a smaller proportion of individuals starting ART (37.2% versus 62.8%), tended to be older (median age 37 versus 33 years), and tended to have lower CD4 counts (median 220 versus 289 cells/µl) at the time of ART initiation compared to women. The overall rate of mortality among men was 10.3 (95% CI 8.2-12.4) deaths/100 person-years (PYs), compared to 5.5 (95% CI 4.3-6.8) deaths/100 PYs among women (difference +4.7 [95% CI 2.3-7.2] deaths/100 PYs; p < 0.001). Compared to women in the same age groups, men's mortality rates were particularly elevated among those <30 years old (+6.7 deaths/100 PYs difference), those attending rural health centers (+9.4 deaths/100 PYs difference), those who had an initial CD4 count < 100 cells/µl (+9.2 deaths/100 PYs difference), and those who were unmarried (+8.0 deaths/100 PYs difference). After adjustment for potential confounders and mediators including CD4 count, a substantially higher mortality rate was predicted among men <30 years old compared to women of the same age, while women ≥50 years old had a mortality rate similar to that of age-matched men, but considerably higher than that predicted among young women (<30 years old). No clinically significant differences were evident with respect to rates of facility transfer or care disengagement between men and women. The main study limitations were the inability to successfully ascertain outcomes in all patients selected for tracing and missing clinical and laboratory data due to the use of medical records. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that among HIV-positive adults newly initiating ART, mortality among men exceeded mortality among women; disparities were most pronounced among young patients. Older women, however, also experienced high mortality. Specific interventions for men and older women at highest mortality risk are needed to improve HIV treatment outcomes.

Participation in adherence clubs and on-time drug pickup among HIV-infected adults in Zambia: A matched-pair cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Current models of HIV service delivery, with frequent facility visits, have led to facility congestion, patient and healthcare provider dissatisfaction, and suboptimal quality of services and retention in care. The Zambian urban adherence club (AC) is a health service innovation designed to improve on-time drug pickup and retention in HIV care through off-hours facility access and pharmacist-led group drug distribution. Similar models of differentiated service delivery (DSD) have shown promise in South Africa, but observational analyses of these models are prone to bias and confounding. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness and implementation of ACs in Zambia using a more rigorous study design. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a matched-pair cluster randomized study design (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02776254), 10 clinics were randomized to intervention (5 clinics) or control (5 clinics). At each clinic, between May 19 and October 27, 2016, a systematic random sample was assessed for eligibility (HIV+, age ≥ 14 years, on ART >6 months, not acutely ill, CD4 count not <200 cells/mm3) and willingness to participate in an AC. Clinical and antiretroviral drug pickup data were obtained through the existing electronic medical record. AC meeting attendance data were collected at intervention facilities prospectively through October 28, 2017. The primary outcome was time to first late drug pickup (>7 days late). Intervention effect was estimated using unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a Cox proportional hazards model to derive an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR). Medication possession ratio (MPR) and implementation outcomes (adoption, acceptability, appropriateness, feasibility, and fidelity) were additionally evaluated as secondary outcomes. Baseline characteristics were similar between 571 intervention and 489 control participants with respect to median age (42 versus 41 years), sex (62% versus 66% female), median time since ART initiation (4.8 versus 5.0 years), median CD4 count at study enrollment (506 versus 533 cells/mm3), and baseline retention (53% versus 55% with at least 1 late drug pickup in previous 12 months). The rate of late drug pickup was lower in intervention participants compared to control participants (aHR 0.26, 95% CI 0.15-0.45, p < 0.001). Median MPR was 100% in intervention participants compared to 96% in control participants (p < 0.001). Although 18% (683/3,734) of AC group meeting visits were missed, on-time drug pickup (within 7 days) still occurred in 51% (350/683) of these missed visits through alternate means (use of buddy pickup or early return to the facility). Qualitative evaluation suggests that the intervention was acceptable to both patients and providers. While patients embraced the convenience and patient-centeredness of the model, preference for traditional adherence counseling and need for greater human resources influenced intervention appropriateness and feasibility from the provider perspective. The main limitations of this study were the small number of clusters, lack of viral load data, and relatively short follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: ACs were found to be an effective model of service delivery for reducing late ART drug pickup among HIV-infected adults in Zambia. Drug pickup outside of group meetings was relatively common and underscores the need for DSD models to be flexible and patient-centered if they are to be effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02776254.

Household flooring associated with reduced infant diarrhoeal illness in Zimbabwe in households with and without WASH interventions.

OBJECTIVES: Diarrhoeal illness is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality and has long-term negative impacts on child development. Although flooring, water and sanitation have been identified as important routes of transmission of diarrhoeal pathogens, research examining variability in the association between flooring and diarrhoeal illness by water and sanitation is limited. METHODS: We utilised cross-sectional data collected for the evaluation of Zimbabwe's Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV transmission programme in 2014 and 2017-18. Mothers of infants 9-18 months of age self-reported the household's source of drinking water and type of sanitation facility, as well as infant diarrhoeal illness in the four weeks prior to the survey. Household flooring was assessed using interviewer observation, and households in which the main material of flooring was dirt/earthen were classified as having unimproved flooring, and those with solid flooring (e.g. cement) were classified as having improved flooring. RESULTS: Mothers of infants living in households with improved flooring were less likely to report diarrhoeal illness in the last four weeks (PDa  = -4.8%, 95% CI: -8.6, -1.0). The association between flooring and diarrhoeal illness did not vary by the presence of improved/unimproved water (pRERI  = 0.91) or sanitation (pRERI  = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the hypothesis that household flooring is an important pathway for the transmission of diarrhoeal pathogens, even in settings where other aspects of sanitation are sub-optimal. Improvements to household flooring do not require behaviour change and may be an effective and expeditious strategy for reducing childhood diarrhoeal illness irrespective of household access to improved water and sanitation.

OBJECTIFS: Les maladies diarrhéiques sont l'une des principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité infantiles et ont des effets négatifs à long terme sur le développement de l'enfant. Bien que le revêtement de sol, l'eau et l'assainissement aient été identifiés comme des voies de transmission importantes des agents pathogènes diarrhéiques, la recherche examinant la variabilité de l'association entre le revêtement de sol et les maladies diarrhéiques par l'eau et les sanitaires est rare. MÉTHODES: Nous avons utilisé des données transversales collectées pour l'évaluation du programme de prévention de la transmission du VIH de la mère à l'enfant au Zimbabwe en 2014 et 2017-18. Les mères de nourrissons âgés de 9 à 18 mois ont déclaré la source d'eau potable du ménage et le type d'installation sanitaire, ainsi que les maladies diarrhéiques de l'enfant au cours des quatre semaines précédant l'enquête. Le revêtement de sol des ménages a été évalué en utilisant l'observation de l'intervieweur. Les ménages dont le principal matériau de revêtement de sol était de la terre étaient classés comme ayant un revêtement de sol non amélioré et les ménages dont le revêtement de sol était en ciment étaient classés comme ayant un revêtement de sol amélioré. RÉSULTATS: Les mères de nourrissons vivant dans des ménages avec un revêtement de sol amélioré étaient moins susceptibles de déclarer une maladie diarrhéique au cours des quatre semaines précédentes (PDa = --9%, IC95%: -8,6 à -1,0). L'association entre les revêtements de sol et les maladies diarrhéiques ne variait pas selon la présence d'eau améliorée/non améliorée (p RERI = 0,91) ou de sanitaires (p RERI = 0,76). CONCLUSIONS: Nos résultats corroborent l'hypothèse selon laquelle le revêtement de sol domestique est une voie importante pour la transmission d'agents pathogènes diarrhéiques, même dans des contextes où d'autres aspects des sanitaires ne sont pas optimaux. L'amélioration du revêtement de sol domestique ne nécessite pas de changement de comportement et peut être une stratégie efficace et rapide pour réduire les maladies diarrhéiques infantiles, indépendamment de l'accès des ménages à une eau et à des sanitaires améliorés.

Patients' Satisfaction with HIV Care Providers in Public Health Facilities in Lusaka: A Study of Patients who were Lost-to-Follow-Up from HIV Care and Treatment.

Prognosis among those who are HIV infected has improved but long-term retention is challenging. Health systems may benefit from routinely measuring patient satisfaction which is a potential driver of engagement in HIV care, but it is not often measured in Africa, and Zambia in particular. This study aims to internally validate a patient satisfaction tool, assess satisfaction among patients previously lost-to-follow up (LTFU) from HIV care in Lusaka province and to measure association between patient satisfaction with their original clinic and re-engagement in HIV care. A cross-sectional assessment of satisfaction was conducted by tracing sampled patients drawn from public health facilities. Our findings suggest that satisfaction tool, previously validated in USA, exhibits high internal consistency for measuring patient satisfaction in the Zambian health system. Patient satisfaction with healthcare providers is associated with re-engagement in HIV care. Future interventions on patient-centred care are likely to optimize and support retention in care.

How might improved estimates of HIV programme outcomes influence practice? A formative study of evidence, dissemination and response.

BACKGROUND: While HIV programmes have started millions of persons on life-saving antiretroviral therapy in Africa, longitudinal health information systems are frail and, therefore, data about long-term survival is often inaccurate or unknown to HIV programmes. The 'Better Information for Health in Zambia' (BetterInfo) Study - a regional sampling-based survey to assess retention and mortality in HIV programmes in Zambia - found both retention and mortality to be higher than prevailing estimates from national surveillance systems. We sought to understand how Zambian health decision-makers at different health system levels would respond to these new data, with a view to informing research translation. METHODS: We interviewed 25 purposefully sampled health decision-makers from community, facility, district, provincial and national levels. During the interviews, we shared retention and mortality estimates from both routine programme surveillance and those generated by the study. Transcripts were analysed for inductive and deductive themes, the latter drawing on Weiss's framework that policy-makers interpret and apply evidence as 'warning', 'guidance', 'reconceptualisation' or 'mobilisation of support'. FINDINGS: All decision-makers found study findings relevant and important. Decision-makers viewed the underestimates of mortality to be a warning about the veracity and informativeness of routine data systems. Decision-makers felt guided by the findings to improve data monitoring and, acknowledging limitations of routine data, utilised episodic patient tracing to support improved data accuracy. Findings catalysed renewed motivation and mobilisation by national level decision-makers for differentiated models of HIV care to improve patient outcomes and also improved data management systems to better capture patient outcomes. Inductive analysis highlighted a programmatic application data interpretation, in which study findings can influence facility and patient-level decision-making, quality of care and routine data management. CONCLUSIONS: New epidemiological data on patient outcomes were widely seen as informative and relevant and can potentially catalyse health system action such as using evaluations to supplement electronic medical record data to improve HIV programmes. Formative evidence suggests that targeting research dissemination at different levels of the health system will elicit different responses. Researchers supporting the translation of evidence to action should leverage all relevant levels of the health system to facilitate both policy and programmatic action.

Longitudinal engagement trajectories and risk of death among new ART starters in Zambia: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Retention in HIV treatment must be improved to advance the HIV response, but research to characterize gaps in retention has focused on estimates from single time points and population-level averages. These approaches do not assess the engagement patterns of individual patients over time and fail to account for both their dynamic nature and the heterogeneity between patients. We apply group-based trajectory analysis-a special application of latent class analysis to longitudinal data-among new antiretroviral therapy (ART) starters in Zambia to identify groups defined by engagement patterns over time and to assess their association with mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed a cohort of HIV-infected adults who newly started ART between August 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, across 64 clinics in Zambia. We performed group-based multi-trajectory analysis to identify subgroups with distinct trajectories in medication possession ratio (MPR, a validated adherence metric based on pharmacy refill data) over the past 3 months and loss to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last visit) among patients with at least 180 days of observation time. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify baseline factors associated with belonging to particular trajectory groups. We obtained Kaplan-Meier estimates with bootstrapped confidence intervals of the cumulative incidence of mortality stratified by trajectory group and performed adjusted Poisson regression to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) for mortality by trajectory group. Inverse probability weights were applied to all analyses to account for updated outcomes ascertained from tracing a random subset of patients lost to follow-up as of July 31, 2015. Overall, 38,879 patients (63.3% female, median age 35 years [IQR 29-41], median enrollment CD4 count 280 cells/µl [IQR 146-431]) were included in our cohort. Analyses revealed 6 trajectory groups among the new ART starters: (1) 28.5% of patients demonstrated consistently high adherence and retention; (2) 22.2% showed early nonadherence but consistent retention; (3) 21.6% showed gradually decreasing adherence and retention; (4) 8.6% showed early LTFU with later reengagement; (5) 8.7% had early LTFU without reengagement; and (6) 10.4% had late LTFU without reengagement. Identified groups exhibited large differences in survival: after adjustment, the "early LTFU with reengagement" group (aIRR 3.4 [95% CI 1.2-9.7], p = 0.019), the "early LTFU" group (aIRR 6.4 [95% CI 2.5-16.3], p < 0.001), and the "late LTFU" group (aIRR 4.7 [95% CI 2.0-11.3], p = 0.001) had higher rates of mortality as compared to the group with consistently high adherence/retention. Limitations of this study include using data observed after baseline to identify trajectory groups and to classify patients into these groups, excluding patients who died or transferred within the first 180 days, and the uncertain generalizability of the data to current care standards. CONCLUSIONS: Among new ART starters in Zambia, we observed 6 patient subgroups that demonstrated distinctive engagement trajectories over time and that were associated with marked differences in the subsequent risk of mortality. Further efforts to develop tailored intervention strategies for different types of engagement behaviors, monitor early engagement to identify higher-risk patients, and better understand the determinants of these heterogeneous behaviors can help improve care delivery and survival in this population.

Correction: Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002811.].

Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Although the success of HIV treatment programs depends on retention and viral suppression, routine program monitoring of these outcomes may be incomplete. We used data from the national electronic medical record (EMR) system in Zambia to enumerate a large and regionally representative cohort of patients on treatment. We traced a random sample with unknown outcomes (lost to follow-up) to document true care status and HIV RNA levels. METHODS AND FINDINGS: On 31 July 2015, we selected facilities from 4 provinces in 12 joint strata defined by facility type and province with probability proportional to size. In each facility, we enumerated adults with at least 1 clinical encounter after treatment initiation in the previous 24 months. From this cohort, we identified lost-to-follow-up patients (defined as 90 or more days late for their last appointment), selected a random sample, and intensively reviewed their records and traced them via phone calls and in-person visits in the community. In 1 of 4 provinces, we also collected dried blood spots (DBSs) for plasma HIV RNA testing. We used inverse probability weights to incorporate sampling outcomes into Aalen-Johansen and Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate retention and viremia. We used a bias analysis approach to correct for the known inaccuracy of plasma HIV RNA levels obtained from DBSs. From a total of 64 facilities with 165,464 adults on ART, we selected 32 facilities with 104,966 patients, of whom 17,602 (17%) were lost to follow-up: Those lost to follow-up had median age 36 years, 60% were female (N = 11,241), they had median enrollment CD4 count of 220 cells/µl, and 38% had WHO stage 1 clinical disease (N = 10,690). We traced 2,892 (16%) and found updated outcomes for 2,163 (75%): 412 (19%) had died, 836 (39%) were alive and in care at their original clinic, 457 (21%) had transferred to a new clinic, 255 (12%) were alive and out of care, and 203 (9%) were alive but we were unable to determine care status. Estimates using data from the EMR only suggested that 42.7% (95% CI 38.0%-47.1%) of new ART starters and 72.3% (95% CI 71.8%-73.0%) of all ART users were retained at 2 years. After incorporating updated data through tracing, we found that 77.3% (95% CI 70.5%-84.0%) of new initiates and 91.2% (95% CI 90.5%-91.8%) of all ART users were retained (at original clinic or transferred), indicating that routine program data underestimated retention in care markedly. In Lusaka Province, HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 1,000 copies/ml were present in 18.1% (95% CI 14.0%-22.3%) of patients in care, 71.3% (95% CI 58.2%-84.4%) of lost patients, and 24.7% (95% CI 21.0%-29.3%). The main study limitations were imperfect response rates and the use of self-reported care status. CONCLUSIONS: In this region of Zambia, routine program data underestimated retention, and the point prevalence of unsuppressed HIV RNA was high when lost patients were accounted for. Viremia was prevalent among patients who unofficially transferred: Sustained engagement remains a challenge among HIV patients in Zambia, and targeted sampling is an effective strategy to identify such gaps in the care cascade and monitor programmatic progress.

Conditional cash transfers to prevent mother-to-child transmission in low facility-delivery settings: evidence from a randomised controlled trial in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria suffers from the highest burden of mother-to-child transmission worldwide. To increase retention in care and prevention programmes, we piloted and evaluated a conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme for preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) in Akwa Ibom, Nigeria. METHODS: In a randomised controlled trial, pregnant women testing positive for HIV during antenatal care registration at three public hospitals were randomised to one of two study arms: (1) offered enrolment into the CCT programme or (2) continue in standard care for (PMTCT). In the CCT programme, women could receive a compensation package totaling 33,300 Naira (~US$114) for enroling, delivering at the facility, and obtaining a newborn early infant diagnosis (EID) test. The intent-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) effects of the programme on the primary outcomes of facility delivery and EID testing and on the secondary outcome of nevirapine administration were estimated with logistic regressions. RESULTS: From August 1, 2015 to April 19, 2017, 554 pregnant women tested positive for HIV; 273 were randomised to standard care and 281 were offered enrolment into the CCT intervention. Women offered the CCT programme were more likely to give birth at the facility (n = 109/263; 41.4%) compared to women in standard care (n = 80/254; 31.5%), an absolute difference of 9.9% (OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.07-2.21, p = 0.019). For EID testing there was an absolute difference of 12.8% between those offered the CCT intervention (n = 69/263; 26.2%) and those in standard care (n = 34/254; 13.4%; OR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.46-3.62, p = 0.000). PP results show larger differences for both facility deliveries (16.7% absolute difference; OR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.38-2.98, p = 0.000) and EID testing (18.9% absolute difference; OR = 3.09, 95% CI 1.93-4.94, p = 0.000) among intervention enrolees. Over 86% of the facility-delivered newborns received nevirapine, and ITT and PP estimates were similar to those for facility deliveries. CONCLUSIONS: Results show that CCTs improved the likelihood of HIV-positive women giving birth at a facility, of nevirapine being administered to their newborn, and of undergoing EID testing in Akwa Ibom, Nigeria. Effects are especially large among those who agreed to participate in the CCT intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02447159 , May 18, 2015.

Protocol for the evaluation of the population-level impact of Zimbabwe's prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission program option B+: a community based serial cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends that HIV infected women receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) minimally during pregnancy and breastfeeding ("Option B"), or ideally throughout their lives regardless of clinical stage ("Option B+") (Coovadia et al., Lancet 379:221-228, 2012). Although these recommendations were based on clinical trials demonstrating the efficacy of ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding, the population-level effectiveness of Option B+ is unknown, as are retention on ART beyond the immediate post-partum period, and the relative impact and cost-effectiveness of Option B+ compared to Option A (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 62:148-151, 2013; Ahmed et al., Curr Opin HIV AIDS 8:473-488, 2013). To address these issues, we conducted an impact evaluation of Zimbabwe's prevention of mother to child transmission programme conducted between 2011 and 2018 using serial, community-based cross-sectional serosurveys, which spanned changes in WHO recommendations. Here we describe the rationale for the design and analysis. METHODS/DESIGN: Our method is to survey mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. We collect questionnaires, blood samples from mothers and babies for HIV antibody and viral load testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/babies. Using this approach, we collected data from two previous time points: 2012 (pre-Option A standard of care), 2014 (post-Option A / pre-Option B+) and will collect a third round of data in 2017-18 (post Option B+ implementation) to monitor population-level trends in mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) and HIV-free infant survival. In addition, we will collect detailed information on facility level factors that may influence service delivery and costs. DISCUSSION: Although the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) has been well-documented in randomized trials, little evidence exists on the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of Option B+ or the influence of the facility on implementation (Siegfried et al., Cochrane Libr 7:CD003510, 2017). This study will provide essential data on these gaps and will provide estimates on retention in care among Option B+ clients after the breastfeeding period. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03388398 Retrospectively registered January 3, 2018.

Improved Retention With 6-Month Clinic Return Intervals for Stable Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients in Zambia.

Background: Extending appointment intervals for stable HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa can reduce patient opportunity costs and decongest overcrowded facilities. Methods: We analyzed a cohort of stable HIV-infected adults (on treatment with CD4 >200 cells/µL for more than 6 months) who presented for clinic visits in Lusaka, Zambia. We used multilevel, mixed-effects logistic regression adjusting for patient characteristics, including prior retention, to assess the association between scheduled appointment intervals and subsequent missed visits (>14 days late to next visit), gaps in medication (>14 days late to next pharmacy refill), and loss to follow-up (LTFU; >90 days late to next visit). Results: A total of 62084 patients (66.6% female, median age 38, median CD4 438 cells/µL) made 501281 visits while stable on antiretroviral therapy. Most visits were scheduled around 1-month (25.0% clinical, 44.4% pharmacy) or 3-month intervals (49.8% clinical, 35.2% pharmacy), with fewer patients scheduled at 6-month intervals (10.3% clinical, 0.4% pharmacy). After adjustment and compared to patients scheduled to return in 1 month, patients with six-month clinic return intervals were the least likely to miss visits (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-0.24); miss medication pickups (aOR, 0.47; 95% CI 0.39-0.57), and become LTFU prior to the next visit (aOR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.31-0.54). Conclusions: Six-month clinic return intervals were associated with decreased lateness, gaps in medication, and LTFU in stable HIV-infected patients and may represent a promising strategy to reduce patient burdens and decongest clinics.

Application of a Multistate Model to Evaluate Visit Burden and Patient Stability to Improve Sustainability of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment in Zambia.

Background: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons who are clinically stable on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been embraced as a solution to decrease access barriers and improve quality of care. However, successful DSD implementation is dependent on understanding the prevalence, incidence, and durability of clinical stability. Methods: We evaluated visit data in a cohort of HIV-infected adults who made at least 1 visit between 1 March 2013 and 28 February 2015 at 56 clinics in Zambia. We described visit frequency and appointment intervals using conventional stability criteria and used a mixed-effects linear regression model to identify predictors of appointment interval. We developed a multistate model to characterize patient stability over time and calculated incidence rates for transition between states. Results: Overall, 167819 patients made 3418018 post-ART initiation visits between 2004 and 2015. Fifty-four percent of visits were pharmacy refill-only visits, and 24% occurred among patients on ART for >6 months and whose current CD4 was >500 cells/mm3. Median appointment interval at clinician visits was 59 days, and time on ART and current CD4 were not strong predictors of appointment interval. Cumulative incidence of clinical stability was 66.2% at 2 years after enrollment, but transition to instability (31 events per 100 person-years) and lapses in care (41 events per100 person-years) were common. Conclusions: Current facility-based care was characterized by high visit burden due to pharmacy refills and among treatment-experienced patients. Differentiated service delivery models targeted toward stable patients need to be adaptive given that clinical stability was highly transient and lapses in care were common.

Understanding preferences for HIV care and treatment in Zambia: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment among patients who have been lost to follow-up.

BACKGROUND: In public health HIV treatment programs in Africa, long-term retention remains a challenge. A number of improvement strategies exist (e.g., bring services closer to home, reduce visit frequency, expand hours of clinic operation, improve provider attitude), but implementers lack data about which to prioritize when resource constraints preclude implementing all. We used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to quantify preferences for a number of potential clinic improvements to enhance retention. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We sought a random sample of HIV patients who were lost to follow-up (defined as >90 days late for their last scheduled appointment) from treatment facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. Among those contacted, we asked patients to choose between 2 hypothetical clinics in which the following 5 attributes of those facilities were varied: waiting time at the clinic (1, 3, or 5 hours), distance from residence to clinic (5, 10, or 20 km), ART supply given at each refill (1, 3, or 5 months), hours of operation (morning only, morning and afternoon, or morning and Saturday), and staff attitude ("rude" or "nice"). We used mixed-effects logistic regression to estimate relative utility (i.e., preference) for each attribute level. We calculated how much additional waiting time or travel distance patients were willing to accept in order to obtain other desired features of care. Between December 9, 2015 and May 31, 2016, we offered the survey to 385 patients, and 280 participated (average age 35; 60% female). Patients exhibited a strong preference for nice as opposed to rude providers (relative utility of 2.66; 95% CI 1.9-3.42; p < 0.001). In a standard willingness to wait or willingness to travel analysis, patients were willing to wait 19 hours more or travel 45 km farther to see nice rather than rude providers. An alternative analysis, in which trade-offs were constrained to values actually posed to patients in the experiment, suggested that patients were willing to accept a facility located 10 km from home (as opposed to 5) that required 5 hours of waiting per visit (as opposed to 1 hour) and that dispensed 3 months of medications (instead of 5) in order to access nice (as opposed to rude) providers. This study was limited by the fact that attributes included in the experiment may not have captured additional important determinants of preference. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, patients were willing to expend considerable time and effort as well as accept substantial inconvenience in order to access providers with a nice attitude. In addition to service delivery redesign (e.g., differentiated service delivery models), current improvement strategies should also prioritize improving provider attitude and promoting patient centeredness-an area of limited policy attention to date.

Estimated mortality on HIV treatment among active patients and patients lost to follow-up in 4 provinces of Zambia: Findings from a multistage sampling-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Survival represents the single most important indicator of successful HIV treatment. Routine monitoring fails to capture most deaths. As a result, both regional assessments of the impact of HIV services and identification of hotspots for improvement efforts are limited. We sought to assess true mortality on treatment, characterize the extent under-reporting of mortality in routine health information systems in Zambia, and identify drivers of mortality across sites and over time using a multistage, regionally representative sampling approach. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We enumerated all HIV infected adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who visited any one of 64 facilities across 4 provinces in Zambia during the 24-month period from 1 August 2013 to 31 July 2015. We identified a probability sample of patients who were lost to follow-up through selecting facilities probability proportional to size and then a simple random sample of lost patients. Outcomes among patients lost to follow-up were incorporated into survival analysis and multivariate regression through probability weights. Of 165,464 individuals (64% female, median age 39 years (IQR 33-46), median CD4 201 cells/mm3 (IQR 111-312), the 2-year cumulative incidence of mortality increased from 1.9% (95% CI 1.7%-2.0%) to a corrected rate of 7.0% (95% CI 5.7%-8.4%) (all ART users) and from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8%-2.4%) to 8.3% (95% CI 6.1%-10.7%) (new ART users). Revised provincial mortality rates ranged from 3-9 times higher than naïve rates for new ART users and were lowest in Lusaka Province (4.6 per 100 person-years) and highest in Western Province (8.7 per 100 person-years) after correction. Corrected mortality rates varied markedly by clinic, with an IQR of 3.5 to 7.5 deaths per 100 person-years and a high of 13.4 deaths per 100 person-years among new ART users, even after adjustment for clinical (e.g., pretherapy CD4) and contextual (e.g., province and clinic size) factors. Mortality rates (all ART users) were highest year 1 after treatment at 4.6/100 person-years (95% CI 3.9-5.5), 2.9/100 person-years (95% CI 2.1-3.9) in year 2, and approximately 1.6% per year through 8 years on treatment. In multivariate analysis, patient-level factors including male sex and pretherapy CD4 levels and WHO stage were associated with higher mortality among new ART users, while male sex and HIV disclosure were associated with mortality among all ART users. In both cases, being late (>14 days late for appointment) or lost (>90 days late for an appointment) was associated with deaths. We were unable to ascertain the vital status of about one-quarter of those lost and selected for tracing and did not adjudicate causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: HIV treatment in Zambia is not optimally effective. The high and sustained mortality rates and marked under-reporting of mortality at the provincial-level and unexplained heterogeneity between regions and sites suggest opportunities for the use of corrected mortality rates for quality improvement. A regionally representative sampling-based approach can bring gaps and opportunities for programs into clear epidemiological focus for local and global decision makers.

Estimating the real-world effects of expanding antiretroviral treatment eligibility: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Although randomized trials have established the clinical efficacy of treating all persons living with HIV (PLWHs), expanding treatment eligibility in the real world may have additional behavioral effects (e.g., changes in retention) or lead to unintended consequences (e.g., crowding out sicker patients owing to increased patient volume). Using a regression discontinuity design, we sought to assess the effects of a previous change to Zambia's HIV treatment guidelines increasing the threshold for treatment eligibility from 350 to 500 cells/µL to anticipate effects of current global efforts to treat all PLWHs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve adults who newly enrolled in HIV care in a network of 64 clinics operated by the Zambian Ministry of Health and supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ). Patients were restricted to those enrolling in a narrow window around the April 1, 2014 change to Zambian HIV treatment guidelines that raised the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/µL (i.e., August 1, 2013, to November 1, 2014). Clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from an electronic medical record system used in routine care. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of this change in treatment eligibility on ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment, retention in care at 6 months (defined as clinic attendance between 3 and 9 months after enrollment), and a composite of both ART initiation by 3 months and retention in care at 6 months in all new enrollees. We also performed an instrumental variable (IV) analysis to quantify the effect of actually initiating ART because of this guideline change on retention. Overall, 34,857 ART-naïve patients (39.1% male, median age 34 years [IQR 28-41], median CD4 268 cells/µL [IQR 134-430]) newly enrolled in HIV care during this period; 23,036 were analyzed after excluding patients around the threshold to allow for clinic-to-clinic variations in actual guideline uptake. In all newly enrolling patients, expanding the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/µL was associated with a 13.6% absolute increase in ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment (95% CI, 11.1%-16.2%), a 4.1% absolute increase in retention at 6 months (95% CI, 1.6%-6.7%), and a 10.8% absolute increase in the percentage of patients who initiated ART by 3 months and were retained at six months (95% CI, 8.1%-13.5%). These effects were greatest in patients who would have become newly eligible for ART with the change in guidelines: a 43.7% increase in ART initiation by 3 months (95% CI, 37.5%-49.9%), 13.6% increase in retention at six months (95% CI, 7.3%-20.0%), and a 35.5% increase in the percentage of patients on ART at 3 months and still in care at 6 months [95% CI, 29.2%-41.9%). We did not observe decreases in ART initiation or retention in patients not directly targeted by the guideline change. An IV analysis found that initiating ART in response to the guideline change led to a 37.9% (95% CI, 28.8%-46.9%) absolute increase in retention in care. Limitations of this study include uncertain generalizability under newer models of care, lack of laboratory data (e.g., viral load), inability to account for earlier stages in the HIV care cascade (e.g., HIV testing and linkage), and potential for misclassification of eligibility status or outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, guidelines raising the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/µL were associated with a rapid rise in ART initiation as well as enhanced retention among newly treatment-eligible patients, without negatively impacting patients with lower CD4 levels. These data suggest that health systems in Zambia and other high-prevalence settings could substantially enhance engagement even among those with high CD4 levels (i.e., above 500 cells/µL) by expanding treatment without undermining existing care standards.

The heterogeneous effect of short-term transfers for improving ART adherence among HIV-infected Tanzanian adults

A recently concluded randomized study in Tanzania found that short-term conditional cash and food transfers significantly improved HIV-infected patients' possession of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and reduced patient loss to follow-up (LTFU) (McCoy, S. I., Njau, P. F., Fahey, C., Kapologwe, N., Kadiyala, S., Jewell, N. P., & Padian, N. S. (2017). Cash vs. food assistance to improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected adults in Tanzania. AIDS, 31(6), 815­825. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000001406 ). We examined whether these transfers had differential effects within population subgroups. In the parent study, 805 individuals were randomized to one of three study arms: standard-of-care (SOC) HIV services, food assistance, or cash transfer. We compared achievement of the medication possession ratio (MPR) ≥ 95% at 6 and 12 months and patient LTFU at 12 months between those receiving the SOC and those receiving food or cash (combined). Using a threshold value of p < 0.20 to signal potential effect measure modifiers (EMM), we compared intervention effects, expressed as risk differences (RD), within subgroups characterized by: sex, age, wealth, and time elapsed between HIV diagnosis and ART initiation. Short-term transfers improved 6 and 12-month MPR ≥ 95% and reduced 12-month LTFU in most subgroups. Study results revealed wealth and time elapsed between HIV diagnosis and ART initiation as potential EMMs, with greater effects for 6-month MPR ≥ 95% in the poorest patients (RD: 32, 95% CI: (9, 55)) compared to those wealthier (RD: 16, 95% CI: (5, 27); p = 0.18) and in newly diagnosed individuals (<90 days elapsed since diagnosis) (RD: 25, 95% CI: (13, 36)) compared to those with ≥90 days (RD: 0.3, 95% CI (−17, 18); p = 0.02), patterns which were sustained at 12 months. Results suggest that food and cash transfers may have stronger beneficial effects on ART adherence in the poorest patients. We also provide preliminary data suggesting that targeting interventions at patients more recently diagnosed with HIV may be worthwhile. Larger and longer-term assessments of transfer programs for the improvement of ART adherence and their potential heterogeneity by sub-population are warranted.