Advances and Applications of Polygenic Scores for Coronary Artery Disease.

Polygenic scores quantify inherited risk by integrating information from many common sites of DNA variation into a single number. Rapid increases in the scale of genetic association studies and new statistical algorithms have enabled development of polygenic scores that meaningfully measure-as early as birth-risk of coronary artery disease. These newer-generation polygenic scores identify up to 8% of the population with triple the normal risk based on genetic variation alone, and these individuals cannot be identified on the basis of family history or clinical risk factors alone. For those identified with increased genetic risk, evidence supports risk reduction with at least two interventions, adherence to a healthy lifestyle and cholesterol-lowering therapies, that can substantially reduce risk. Alongside considerable enthusiasm for the potential of polygenic risk estimation to enable a new era of preventive clinical medicine is recognition of a need for ongoing research into how best to ensure equitable performance across diverse ancestries, how and in whom to assess the scores in clinical practice, as well as randomized trials to confirm clinical utility.

Genetic, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical risk factors of recurrent coronary artery disease events: a population-based cohort study.

AIMS: Complications of coronary artery disease (CAD) represent the leading cause of death among adults globally. This study examined the associations and clinical utilities of genetic, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical risk factors on CAD recurrence. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were from 7024 UK Biobank middle-aged adults with established CAD at enrolment. Cox proportional hazards regressions modelled associations of age at enrolment, age at first CAD diagnosis, sex, cigarette smoking, physical activity, diet, sleep, Townsend Deprivation Index, body mass index, blood pressure, blood lipids, glucose, lipoprotein(a), C reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), statin prescription, and CAD polygenic risk score (PRS) with first post-enrolment CAD recurrence. Over a median [interquartile range] follow-up of 11.6 [7.2-12.7] years, 2003 (28.5%) recurrent CAD events occurred. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) for CAD recurrence was the most pronounced with current smoking (1.35, 1.13-1.61) and per standard deviation increase in age at first CAD (0.74, 0.67-0.82). Additionally, age at enrolment, CAD PRS, C-reactive protein, lipoprotein(a), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, deprivation, sleep quality, eGFR, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol also significantly associated with recurrence risk. Based on C indices (95% CI), the strongest predictors were CAD PRS (0.58, 0.57-0.59), HDL cholesterol (0.57, 0.57-0.58), and age at initial CAD event (0.57, 0.56-0.57). In addition to traditional risk factors, a comprehensive model improved the C index from 0.644 (0.632-0.654) to 0.676 (0.667-0.686). CONCLUSION: Sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory factors are each associated with CAD recurrence with genetic risk, age at first CAD event, and HDL cholesterol concentration explaining the most.

Quantifying and Understanding the Higher Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Among South Asian Individuals: Results From the UK Biobank Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals of South Asian ancestry represent 23% of the global population, corresponding to 1.8 billion people, and have substantially higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease compared with most other ethnicities. US practice guidelines now recognize South Asian ancestry as an important risk-enhancing factor. The magnitude of enhanced risk within the context of contemporary clinical care, the extent to which it is captured by existing risk estimators, and its potential mechanisms warrant additional study. METHODS: Within the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, 8124 middle-aged participants of South Asian ancestry and 449 349 participants of European ancestry who were free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at the time of enrollment were examined. The relationship of ancestry to risk of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease-defined as myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or ischemic stroke-was assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression, along with examination of a broad range of clinical, anthropometric, and lifestyle mediators. RESULTS: The mean age at study enrollment was 57 years, and 202 405 (44%) were male. Over a median follow-up of 11 years, 554 of 8124 (6.8%) individuals of South Asian ancestry experienced an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event compared with 19 756 of 449 349 (4.4%) individuals of European ancestry, corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.03 (95% CI, 1.86-2.22; P<0.001). This higher relative risk was largely consistent across a range of age, sex, and clinical subgroups. Despite the >2-fold higher observed risk, the predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease according to the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Pooled Cohort equations and QRISK3 equations was nearly identical for individuals of South Asian and European ancestry. Adjustment for a broad range of clinical, anthropometric, and lifestyle risk factors led to only modest attenuation of the observed hazard ratio to 1.45 (95% CI, 1.28-1.65, P<0.001). Assessment of variance explained by 18 candidate risk factors suggested greater importance of hypertension, diabetes, and central adiposity in South Asian individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Within a large prospective study, South Asian individuals had substantially higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease compared with individuals of European ancestry, and this risk was not captured by the Pooled Cohort Equations.

Lp(a) (Lipoprotein[a]) Concentrations and Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: New Insights From a Large National Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: Lp(a) (lipoprotein[a]) concentrations are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and new therapies that enable potent and specific reduction are in development. In the largest study conducted to date, we address 3 areas of uncertainty: (1) the magnitude and shape of ASCVD risk conferred across the distribution of lipoprotein(a) concentrations; (2) variation of risk across racial and clinical subgroups; (3) clinical importance of a high lipoprotein(a) threshold to guide therapy. Approach and Results: Relationship of lipoprotein(a) to incident ASCVD was studied in 460 506 middle-aged UK Biobank participants. Over a median follow-up of 11.2 years, incident ASCVD occurred in 22 401 (4.9%) participants. Median lipoprotein(a) concentration was 19.6 nmol/L (25th-75th percentile 7.6-74.8). The relationship between lipoprotein(a) and ASCVD appeared linear across the distribution, with a hazard ratio of 1.11 (95% CI, 1.10-1.12) per 50 nmol/L increment. Substantial differences in concentrations were noted according to race-median values for white, South Asian, black, and Chinese individuals were 19, 31, 75, and 16 nmol/L, respectively. However, risk per 50 nmol/L appeared similar-hazard ratios of 1.11, 1.10, and 1.07 for white, South Asian, and black individuals, respectively. A high lipoprotein(a) concentration defined as ≥150 nmol/L was present in 12.2% of those without and 20.3% of those with preexisting ASCVD and associated with hazard ratios of 1.50 (95% CI, 1.44-1.56) and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.05-1.27), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lipoprotein(a) concentrations predict incident ASCVD among middle-aged adults within primary and secondary prevention contexts, with a linear risk gradient across the distribution. Concentrations are variable across racial subgroups, but the associated risk appears similar.

Race, socioeconomic deprivation, and hospitalization for COVID-19 in English participants of a national biobank.

Preliminary reports suggest that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID- 19) pandemic has led to disproportionate morbidity and mortality among historically disadvantaged populations. We investigate the racial and socioeconomic associations of COVID- 19 hospitalization among 418,794 participants of the UK Biobank, of whom 549 (0.13%) had been hospitalized. Both Black participants (odds ratio 3.7; 95%CI 2.5-5.3) and Asian participants (odds ratio 2.2; 95%CI 1.5-3.2) were at substantially increased risk as compared to White participants. We further observed a striking gradient in COVID- 19 hospitalization rates according to the Townsend Deprivation Index - a composite measure of socioeconomic deprivation - and household income. Adjusting for socioeconomic factors and cardiorespiratory comorbidities led to only modest attenuation of the increased risk in Black participants, adjusted odds ratio 2.4 (95%CI 1.5-3.7). These observations confirm and extend earlier preliminary and lay press reports of higher morbidity in non-White individuals in the context of a large population of participants in a national biobank. The extent to which this increased risk relates to variation in pre-existing comorbidities, differences in testing or hospitalization patterns, or additional disparities in social determinants of health warrants further study.

Association of low-frequency and rare coding-sequence variants with blood lipids and coronary heart disease in 56,000 whites and blacks.

Low-frequency coding DNA sequence variants in the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 gene (PCSK9) lower plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), protect against risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), and have prompted the development of a new class of therapeutics. It is uncertain whether the PCSK9 example represents a paradigm or an isolated exception. We used the "Exome Array" to genotype >200,000 low-frequency and rare coding sequence variants across the genome in 56,538 individuals (42,208 European ancestry [EA] and 14,330 African ancestry [AA]) and tested these variants for association with LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides. Although we did not identify new genes associated with LDL-C, we did identify four low-frequency (frequencies between 0.1% and 2%) variants (ANGPTL8 rs145464906 [c.361C>T; p.Gln121*], PAFAH1B2 rs186808413 [c.482C>T; p.Ser161Leu], COL18A1 rs114139997 [c.331G>A; p.Gly111Arg], and PCSK7 rs142953140 [c.1511G>A; p.Arg504His]) with large effects on HDL-C and/or triglycerides. None of these four variants was associated with risk for CHD, suggesting that examples of low-frequency coding variants with robust effects on both lipids and CHD will be limited.

Polygenic Scores and Preclinical Cardiovascular Disease in Individuals With HIV: Insights From the REPRIEVE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of death among the 38.4 million people with HIV globally. The extent to which cardiovascular polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived in non-HIV populations generalize to people with HIV is not well understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: PRSs for CAD (GPSMult) and lipid traits were calculated in a global cohort of people with HIV treated with antiretroviral therapy with low-to-moderate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk enrolled in REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV). The PRSs were associated with baseline lipid traits in 4495 genotyped participants, and with subclinical CAD in a subset of 662 who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography. Among participants who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (mean age, 50.9 [SD, 5.8] years; 16.1% women; 41.8% African, 57.3% European, 1.1% Asian), GPSMult was associated with plaque presence with odds ratio (OR) per SD in GPSMult of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.20-1.68; P=3.8×10-5), stenosis >50% (OR, 2.39 [95% CI, 1.48-3.85]; P=3.4×10-4), and noncalcified/vulnerable plaque (OR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.23-1.72]; P=9.6×10-6). Effects were consistent in subgroups of age, sex, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, ancestry, and CD4 count. Adding GPSMult to established risk factors increased the C-statistic for predicting plaque presence from 0.718 to 0.734 (P=0.02). Furthermore, a PRS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with plaque presence with OR of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.44; P=0.04), and partially calcified plaque with OR of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.45; P=0.04) per SD. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with HIV treated with antiretroviral therapy without documented atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and at low-to-moderate calculated risk in REPRIEVE, an externally developed CAD PRS was predictive of subclinical atherosclerosis. PRS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was also associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, supporting a role for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in HIV-associated CAD. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.reprievetrial.org; Unique identifier: NCT02344290.

Risk factors for clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential in people with HIV: a report from the REPRIEVE trial.

ABSTRACT: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the clonal expansion of myeloid cells with leukemogenic mutations, results in increased coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. CHIP is more prevalent among people with HIV (PWH), but the risk factors are unknown. CHIP was identified among PWH in REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV) using whole-exome sequencing. Logistic regression was used to associate sociodemographic factors and HIV-specific factors with CHIP adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status. In the studied global cohort of 4486 PWH, mean age was 49.9 (standard deviation [SD], 6.4) years; 1650 (36.8%) were female; and 3418 (76.2%) were non-White. CHIP was identified in 223 of 4486 (4.97%) and in 38 of 373 (10.2%) among those aged ≥60 years. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.09; P < .0001) and smoking (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14-1.66; P < .001) associated with increased odds of CHIP. Globally, participants outside of North America had lower odds of CHIP including sub-Saharan Africa (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.4-0.81; P = .0019), South Asia (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.80; P = .01), and Latin America/Caribbean (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34-0.87; P = .014). Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.23-0.54; P = .002) associated with significantly lower odds of CHIP. Among HIV-specific factors, CD4 nadir <50 cells/mm3 associated with a 1.9-fold (95%CI, 1.21-3.05; P = .006) increased odds of CHIP, with the effect being significantly stronger among individuals with short duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART; OR, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.51-11.1; P = .005) (Pinteraction= .0492). Among PWH at low-to-moderate CAD risk on stable ART, smoking, CD4 nadir, North American origin, and non-Hispanic ethnicity associated with increased odds of CHIP. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02344290.

Pragmatic Approach to Applying Polygenic Risk Scores to Diverse Populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate genetic susceptibility of an individual to disease and have the potential of providing utility in multiple clinical contexts. However, their performance, computation, and reporting in diverse populations remain challenging. Here, we present a pragmatic approach to optimize a PRS for a population of interest that leverages publicly available data and methods and consists of seven steps that are easily implemented without the requirement of expertise in complex genetics: step 1, selecting source genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and imputation; step 2, selecting methods to compute polygenic score; step 3, adjusting scores using principal components of genetic ancestry; step 4, selecting the best performing score; step 5, defining percentiles of a population distribution; step 6, validating performance of the optimized polygenic score; and step 7, implementing the optimized polygenic score in clinical practice. © 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Concordance of a High Lipoprotein(a) Concentration Among Relatives.

Importance: Lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) concentrations are a highly heritable and potential causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Recent consensus statements by the European Atherosclerosis Society and American Heart Association recommend screening of relatives of individuals with high Lp(a) concentrations, but the expected yield of this approach has not been quantified in large populations. Objective: To measure the prevalence of high Lp(a) concentrations among first- and second-degree relatives of individuals with high Lp(a) concentrations compared with unrelated participants. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional analysis, pairs of first-degree (n = 19 899) and second-degree (n = 9715) relatives with measured Lp(a) levels from the UK Biobank study and random pairs of unrelated individuals (n = 184 764) were compared. Data for this study were collected from March 2006 to August 2010 and analyzed from December 2021 to August 2023. Exposure: Serum Lp(a) levels, with a high Lp(a) level defined as at least 125 nmol/L. Main Outcome and Measure: Concordance of clinically relevant high Lp(a) levels in first- and second-degree relatives of index participants with high Lp(a) levels. Results: A total of 52 418 participants were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 57.3 [8.0] years; 29 825 [56.9%] women). Levels of Lp(a) were correlated among pairs of first-degree (Spearman ρ = 0.45; P < .001) and second-degree (Spearman ρ = 0.22; P < .001) relatives. A total of 1607 of 3420 (47.0% [95% CI, 45.3%-48.7%]) first-degree and 514 of 1614 (31.8% [95% CI, 29.6%-34.2%]) second-degree relatives of index participants with high Lp(a) levels also had elevated concentrations compared with 4974 of 30 258 (16.4% [95% CI, 16.0%-16.9%]) pairs of unrelated individuals. The concordance in high Lp(a) levels was generally consistent among subgroups (eg, those with prior ASCVD, postmenopausal women, and statin users). The odds ratios for relatives to have high Lp(a) levels if their index relative had a high Lp(a) level compared with those whose index relatives did not have high Lp(a) levels were 7.4 (95% CI, 6.8-8.1) for first-degree relatives and 3.0 (95% CI, 2.7-3.4) for second-degree relatives. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that the yield of cascade screening of first-degree relatives of individuals with high Lp(a) levels is over 40%. These findings support recent recommendations to use this approach to identify additional individuals at ASCVD risk based on Lp(a) concentrations.

Polygenic Background Modifies Risk of Coronary Artery Disease Among Individuals With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia.

Background: Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) is a monogenic disorder characterized by increased circulating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and accelerated atherosclerosis. Even among this high-risk group, prior studies note considerable variability in risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cumulative impact of many common DNA variants-as quantified by a polygenic score-on incident CAD among individuals carrying a HeFH variant. Methods: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of 1,315 individuals who carried a HeFH variant and 1,315 matched family noncarriers derived from a nationwide screening program in the Netherlands, with subsequent replication in 151,009 participants of the UK Biobank. Results: Despite identification and lipid management within the Dutch screening program, 84 (6.4%) of HeFH variant carriers developed CAD as compared to 45 (3.4%) of matched family members (median follow-up 10.2 years, HR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.31-2.70). Among HeFH variant carriers, a polygenic score was associated with CAD with an effect size similar to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol - HR of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.07-1.70) and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.17-1.70) per standard deviation increase, respectively. When compared to noncarriers, CAD risk increased from 1.24-fold (95% CI: 0.64-2.34) to 3.37-fold (95% CI: 2.11-5.36) across quintiles of the polygenic score. A similar risk gradient, 1.36-fold (95% CI: 0.65-2.85) to 2.88-fold (95% CI: 1.59-5.20), was observed in 429 carriers in the UK Biobank. Conclusions: In 2 cohort studies involving 1,744 individuals with genetically confirmed HeFH - the largest study to date - risk of CAD varied according to polygenic background, in some cases approaching the risk observed in noncarriers.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease.

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Association of Rare Protein-Truncating DNA Variants in APOB or PCSK9 With Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Level and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

Importance: Protein-truncating variants (PTVs) in apolipoprotein B (APOB) and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) are associated with significantly lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol concentrations. The association of these PTVs with coronary heart disease (CHD) warrants further characterization in large, multiracial prospective cohort studies. Objective: To evaluate the association of PTVs in APOB and PCSK9 with LDL cholesterol concentrations and CHD risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This studied included participants from 5 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) studies and the UK Biobank. NHLBI study participants aged 5 to 84 years were recruited between 1971 and 2002 across the US and underwent whole-genome sequencing. UK Biobank participants aged 40 to 69 years were recruited between 2006 and 2010 in the UK and underwent whole-exome sequencing. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to October 2022. Exposures: PTVs in APOB and PCSK9. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated untreated LDL cholesterol levels and CHD. Results: Among 19 073 NHLBI participants (10 598 [55.6%] female; mean [SD] age, 52 [17] years), 139 (0.7%) carried an APOB or PCSK9 PTV, which was associated with 49 mg/dL (95% CI, 43-56) lower estimated untreated LDL cholesterol level. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 21.5 (13.9-29.4) years, incident CHD was observed in 12 of 139 carriers (8.6%) vs 3029 of 18 934 noncarriers (16.0%), corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.28-0.89; P = .02). Among 190 464 UK Biobank participants (104 831 [55.0%] female; mean [SD] age, 57 [8] years), 662 (0.4%) carried a PTV, which was associated with 45 mg/dL (95% CI, 42-47) lower estimated untreated LDL cholesterol level. Estimated CHD risk by age 75 years was 3.7% (95% CI, 2.0-5.3) in carriers vs 7.0% (95% CI, 6.9-7.2) in noncarriers, corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.81; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: Among 209 537 individuals in this study, 0.4% carried an APOB or PCSK9 PTV that was associated with less exposure to LDL cholesterol and a 49% lower risk of CHD.

Polygenic prediction of preeclampsia and gestational hypertension.

Preeclampsia and gestational hypertension are common pregnancy complications associated with adverse maternal and child outcomes. Current tools for prediction, prevention and treatment are limited. Here we tested the association of maternal DNA sequence variants with preeclampsia in 20,064 cases and 703,117 control individuals and with gestational hypertension in 11,027 cases and 412,788 control individuals across discovery and follow-up cohorts using multi-ancestry meta-analysis. Altogether, we identified 18 independent loci associated with preeclampsia/eclampsia and/or gestational hypertension, 12 of which are new (for example, MTHFR-CLCN6, WNT3A, NPR3, PGR and RGL3), including two loci (PLCE1 and FURIN) identified in the multitrait analysis. Identified loci highlight the role of natriuretic peptide signaling, angiogenesis, renal glomerular function, trophoblast development and immune dysregulation. We derived genome-wide polygenic risk scores that predicted preeclampsia/eclampsia and gestational hypertension in external cohorts, independent of clinical risk factors, and reclassified eligibility for low-dose aspirin to prevent preeclampsia. Collectively, these findings provide mechanistic insights into the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and have the potential to advance pregnancy risk stratification.

Association of Pathogenic DNA Variants Predisposing to Cardiomyopathy With Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes and All-Cause Mortality.

Importance: Pathogenic variants associated with inherited cardiomyopathy are recognized as important and clinically actionable when identified, leading some clinicians to recommend population-wide genomic screening. Objective: To determine the prevalence and clinical importance of pathogenic variants associated with inherited cardiomyopathy within the context of contemporary clinical care. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a genetic association study of participants in Atherosclerosis in Risk Communities (ARIC), recruited from 1987 to 1989, with median follow-up of 27 years, and the UK Biobank, recruited from 2006 to 2010, with median follow-up of 10 years. ARIC participants were recruited from 4 sites across the US. UK Biobank participants were recruited from 22 sites across the UK. Participants in the US were of African and European ancestry; those in the UK were of African, East Asian, South Asian, and European ancestry. Statistical analyses were performed between August 1, 2021, and February 9, 2022. Exposures: Rare genetic variants predisposing to inherited cardiomyopathy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pathogenicity of observed DNA sequence variants in sequenced exomes of 13 genes (ACTC1, FLNC, GLA, LMNA, MYBPC3, MYH7, MYL2, MYL3, PRKAG2, TNNI3, TNNT2, TPM1, and TTN) associated with inherited cardiomyopathies were classified by a blinded clinical geneticist per American College of Medical Genetics recommendations. Incidence of all-cause mortality, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation were determined. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography, and electrocardiogram measures were assessed in a subset of participants. Results: A total of 9667 ARIC participants (mean [SD] age, 54.0 [5.7] years; 4232 women [43.8%]; 2658 African [27.5%] and 7009 European [72.5%] ancestry) and 49 744 UK Biobank participants (mean [SD] age, 57.1 [8.0] years; 27 142 women [54.5%]; 1006 African [2.0%], 173 East Asian [0.3%], 939 South Asian [1.9%], and 46 449 European [93.4%] European ancestry) were included in the study. Of those, 59 participants (0.61%) in ARIC and 364 participants (0.73%) in UK Biobank harbored an actionable pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant associated with dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Carriers of these variants were not reliably identifiable by imaging. However, the presence of these variants was associated with increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8), atrial fibrillation (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.5), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2) in ARIC. Similar risk patterns were observed in the UK Biobank. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this genetic association study suggest that approximately 0.7% of study participants harbored a pathogenic variant associated with inherited cardiomyopathy. These variant carriers would be challenging to identify within clinical practice without genetic testing but are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

Prediction performance and fairness heterogeneity in cardiovascular risk models.

Prediction models are commonly used to estimate risk for cardiovascular diseases, to inform diagnosis and management. However, performance may vary substantially across relevant subgroups of the population. Here we investigated heterogeneity of accuracy and fairness metrics across a variety of subgroups for risk prediction of two common diseases: atrial fibrillation (AF) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We calculated the Cohorts for Heart and Aging in Genomic Epidemiology Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE-AF) score for AF and the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) score for ASCVD in three large datasets: Explorys Life Sciences Dataset (Explorys, n = 21,809,334), Mass General Brigham (MGB, n = 520,868), and the UK Biobank (UKBB, n = 502,521). Our results demonstrate important performance heterogeneity across subpopulations defined by age, sex, and presence of preexisting disease, with fairly consistent patterns across both scores. For example, using CHARGE-AF, discrimination declined with increasing age, with a concordance index of 0.72 [95% CI 0.72-0.73] for the youngest (45-54 years) subgroup to 0.57 [0.56-0.58] for the oldest (85-90 years) subgroup in Explorys. Even though sex is not included in CHARGE-AF, the statistical parity difference (i.e., likelihood of being classified as high risk) was considerable between males and females within the 65-74 years subgroup with a value of - 0.33 [95% CI - 0.33 to - 0.33]. We also observed weak discrimination (i.e., < 0.7) and suboptimal calibration (i.e., calibration slope outside of 0.7-1.3) in large subsets of the population; for example, all individuals aged 75 years or older in Explorys (17.4%). Our findings highlight the need to characterize and quantify the behavior of clinical risk models within specific subpopulations so they can be used appropriately to facilitate more accurate, consistent, and equitable assessment of disease risk.

Association of the Interaction Between Familial Hypercholesterolemia Variants and Adherence to a Healthy Lifestyle With Risk of Coronary Artery Disease.

Importance: Familial hypercholesterolemia variants impair clearance of cholesterol from the circulation and increase risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). The extent to which adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of CAD in carriers and noncarriers of variants warrants further study. Objective: To assess the association of the interaction between familial hypercholesterolemia variants and adherence to a healthy lifestyle with risk of CAD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used 2 independent data sets with gene sequencing and lifestyle data from the UK Biobank: a case-control study of 4896 cases and 5279 controls and a cohort study of 39 920 participants. Participants were recruited from 22 sites across the UK between March 21, 2006, and October 1, 2010. The case-control study included participants with CAD and controls at enrollment. The cohort study used a convenience sample of individuals with available gene sequencing data. Statistical analysis was performed from April 2, 2019, to January 20, 2022. Exposures: Pathogenic or likely pathogenic DNA variants classified by a clinical laboratory geneticist and adherence to a healthy lifestyle based on a 4-point scoring system (1 point for each of the following: healthy diet, regular exercise, not smoking, and absence of obesity). Main Outcomes and Measures: Coronary artery disease, defined as myocardial infarction in the case-control study, and myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, or coronary revascularization procedure in the cohort study. Results: The case-control study included 10 175 participants (6828 men [67.1%]; mean [SD] age, 58.6 [7.2] years), and the cohort study included 39 920 participants (18 802 men [47.1%]; mean [SD] age at the end of follow-up, 66.4 [8.0] years). A variant was identified in 35 of 4896 cases (0.7%) and 12 of 5279 controls (0.2%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.0 (95% CI, 1.6-5.9), and a variant was identified in 108 individuals (0.3%) in the cohort study, in which the hazard ratio for CAD was 3.8 (95% CI, 2.5-5.8). However, this risk appeared to vary according to lifestyle categories in both carriers and noncarriers of familial hypercholesterolemia variants, without a significant interaction between carrier status and lifestyle (odds ratio, 1.2 [95% CI, 0.6-2.5]; P = .62). Among carriers, a favorable lifestyle conferred 86% lower risk of CAD compared with an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.04-0.41]). The estimated risk of CAD by the age of 75 years varied according to lifestyle, ranging from 10.2% among noncarriers with a favorable lifestyle to 24.0% among noncarriers with an unfavorable lifestyle and ranging from 34.5% among carriers with a favorable lifestyle to 66.2% among carriers with an unfavorable lifestyle. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that, among carriers and noncarriers of a familial hypercholesterolemia variant, significant gradients in risk of CAD are noted according to adherence to a healthy lifestyle pattern. Similar to the general population, individuals who carry familial hypercholesterolemia variants are likely to benefit from lifestyle interventions to reduce their risk of CAD.

Association of premature menopause with incident pulmonary hypertension: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Several forms of pulmonary hypertension (PH) disproportionately affect women. Animal and human studies suggest that estradiol exerts mixed effects on the pulmonary vasculature. Whether premature menopause represents a risk factor for PH is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this cohort study, women in the UK Biobank aged 40-69 years who were postmenopausal and had complete data available on reproductive history were included. Premature menopause, defined as menopause occurring before age 40 years. Postmenopausal women without premature menopause served as the reference group. The primary outcome was incident PH, ascertained by appearance of a qualifying ICD code in the participant's UK Biobank study record. Of 136,715 postmenopausal women included, 5,201 (3.8%) had premature menopause. Participants were followed up for a median of 11.1 (interquartile range 10.5-11.8) years. The primary outcome occurred in 38 women (0.73%) with premature menopause and 409 (0.31%) without. After adjustment for age, race, ever-smoking, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, cholesterol-lowering medication use, C-reactive protein, prevalent type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, heart failure, mitral regurgitation, aortic stenosis, venous thromboembolism, forced vital capacity (FVC), the forced expiratory volume in 1 second-to-FVC ratio, use of menopausal hormone therapy, and hysterectomy status, premature menopause was independently associated with PH (hazard ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.31-3.23, P<0.001). In analyses of alternate menopausal age thresholds, risk of PH appeared to increase progressively with younger age at menopause (Ptrend <0.001), with 4.8-fold risk in women with menopause before age 30 years (95% CI 1.82-12.74, P = 0.002). Use of menopausal hormone therapy did not modify the association of premature menopause with PH. CONCLUSIONS: Premature menopause may represent an independent risk factor for PH in women. Further investigation of the role of sex hormones in PH is needed in animal and human studies to elucidate pathobiology and identify novel therapeutic targets.

Selection of 51 predictors from 13,782 candidate multimodal features using machine learning improves coronary artery disease prediction.

Current cardiovascular risk assessment tools use a small number of predictors. Here, we study how machine learning might: (1) enable principled selection from a large multimodal set of candidate variables and (2) improve prediction of incident coronary artery disease (CAD) events. An elastic net-based Cox model (ML4HEN-COX) trained and evaluated in 173,274 UK Biobank participants selected 51 predictors from 13,782 candidates. Beyond most traditional risk factors, ML4HEN-COX selected a polygenic score, waist circumference, socioeconomic deprivation, and several hematologic indices. A more than 30-fold gradient in 10-year risk estimates was noted across ML4HEN-COX quintiles, ranging from 0.25% to 7.8%. ML4HEN-COX improved discrimination of incident CAD (C-statistic = 0.796) compared with the Framingham risk score, pooled cohort equations, and QRISK3 (range 0.754-0.761). This approach to variable selection and model assessment is readily generalizable to a broad range of complex datasets and disease endpoints.