Projecting effects of land use change on human well-being through changes in ecosystem services.

Changing patterns of land use, temperature, and precipitation are expected to impact ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity, buffering of extreme events, soil quality, and biodiversity. Scenario analyses that link such impacts on ecosystem services to human well-being may be valuable in anticipating potential consequences of change that are meaningful to people living in a community. Ecosystem services provide numerous benefits to community well-being, including living standards, health, cultural fulfillment, education, and connection to nature. Yet assessments of impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being have largely focused on human health or monetary benefits (e.g. market values). This study applies a human well-being modelling framework to demonstrate the potential impacts of alternative land use scenarios on multi-faceted components of human well-being through changes in ecosystem services (i.e., ecological benefits functions). The modelling framework quantitatively defines these relationships in a way that can be used to project the influence of ecosystem service flows on indicators of human well-being, alongside social service flows and economic service flows. Land use changes are linked to changing indicators of ecosystem services through the application of ecological production functions. The approach is demonstrated for two future land use scenarios in a Florida watershed, representing different degrees of population growth and environmental resource protection. Increasing rates of land development were almost universally associated with declines in ecosystem services indicators and associated indicators of well-being, as natural ecosystems were replaced by impervious surfaces that depleted the ability of ecosystems to buffer air pollutants, provide habitat for biodiversity, and retain rainwater. Scenarios with increases in indicators of ecosystem services, however, did not necessarily translate into increases in indicators of well-being, due to covarying changes in social and economic services indicators. The approach is broadly transferable to other communities or decision scenarios and serves to illustrate the potential impacts of changing land use on ecosystem services and human well-being.

Eco-decisional well-being networks as a tool for community decision support.

Community decision making based on the sustainability of ecosystem services is an integrated process that involves multiple complex decisions and is greatly aided by an understanding of how those decisions are interrelated. The interrelatedness of decisions can be understood and even measured based on connections between actions and services and influence of services on domains of human well-being. These connections can be formed into a network structure so that quantifiable properties of networks can be applied to understanding decision impacts. We developed an eco-decisional network based on weighted social-ecological networks as a tool for integrated decision making based on ecosystem services and human well-being. Nodes are actions, services, or domains of human well-being and they are linked by weighted influence derived from community stakeholder input. Examination of the eco-decisional network, as well as comparison to pattern in the random networks, suggest there are important patterns of influence among different influence pathways from actions to community well-being, which describe community priorities and define unique roles through which chosen sets of actions can influence human well-being. The eco-decisional network is generalized across communities but can also be made community specific, which provides a tool for comparison between communities in decisional priorities (network properties), as well as comparisons between proposed actions within a community (network paths). The well-studied properties of networks, well-established network theory, as well as established network metrics make this approach promising for application to integrated decision making and for communicating possible outcomes to stakeholders. The result is a guidance tool for connecting propose actions to ecosystem services and human well-being.