Climate risk to European fisheries and coastal communities.

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterizing the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritizing the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ an approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the United Kingdom have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall, while in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change; climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region, and fleet's specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact.

Attuning to a changing ocean.

The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social-ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but also how knowledge from these regions contributes to an understanding of how to obtain a sustainable ocean. Our collective experience may be summarized in three points: 1) In the absence of long-term observations, decision-making is subject to high risk arising from natural variability; 2) in the absence of established scientific organizations, advice to stakeholders often relies on a few advisors, making them prone to biased perceptions; and 3) in the absence of trust between policy makers and the science community, attuning to a changing ocean will be subject to arbitrary decision-making with unforeseen and negative ramifications. Underpinning these observations, we show that collaboration across scientific disciplines and stakeholders and between nations is a necessary condition for appropriate actions.

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean.

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.

Using micro-computed tomography to examine the larynx in cases of suspected strangulation-a comparison of case findings and control images.

The examination of strangulation is one of the most challenging causes of death diagnoses encountered in forensic pathology. The injuries are often subtle and difficult to detect, especially in cases that lack superficial marks. Fractures of the laryngeal skeleton are commonly regarded as evidence of strangulation but these can be too subtle to be detected during autopsy. Micro-CT is a novel imaging technique that achieves a spatial resolution 1 µm or less which lends itself to the examination of small and delicate structures such as the larynx. However, there is little information to date regarding the appearance of the larynx at this scale, thus complicating the interpretation of the micro-CT images. This study therefore uses micro-CT to examine ten larynges from strangulation deaths and to compare them to nineteen samples from donor individuals in order to distinguish between naturally occurring features and actual trauma. It was found that there are several features which mimic damage in the donor group. Using associated case information, initial trends and patterns of different strangulation methods were established.

Trait biogeography of marine copepods - an analysis across scales.

Functional traits, rather than taxonomic identity, determine the fitness of individuals in their environment: traits of marine organisms are therefore expected to vary across the global ocean as a function of the environment. Here, we quantify such spatial and seasonal variations based on extensive empirical data and present the first global biogeography of key traits (body size, feeding mode, relative offspring size and myelination) for pelagic copepods, the major group of marine zooplankton. We identify strong patterns with latitude, season and between ocean basins that are partially (c. 50%) explained by key environmental drivers. Body size, for example decreases with temperature, confirming the temperature-size rule, but surprisingly also with productivity, possibly driven by food-chain length and size-selective predation. Patterns unrelated to environmental predictors may originate from phylogenetic clustering. Our maps can be used as a test-bed for trait-based mechanistic models and to inspire next-generation biogeochemical models.

The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate.

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one of the longest running and most extensive marine biological monitoring programs, to investigate the reliability of predicted plankton distributions. We apply three commonly used SDMs to 20 representative plankton species, including copepods, diatoms, and dinoflagellates, all found in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. We fit the models to decadal subsets of the full (1958-2012) dataset, and then use them to predict both forward and backward in time, comparing the model predictions against the corresponding observations. The probability of correctly predicting presence was low, peaking at 0.5 for copepods, and model skill typically did not outperform a null model assuming distributions to be constant in time. The predicted prevalence increasingly differed from the observed prevalence for predictions with more distance in time from their training dataset. More detailed investigations based on four focal species revealed that strong spatial variations in skill exist, with the least skill at the edges of the distributions, where prevalence is lowest. Furthermore, the scores of traditional single-value model performance metrics were contrasting and some implied overoptimistic conclusions about model skill. Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change.

Tc-MYBPA an Arabidopsis TT2-like transcription factor and functions in the regulation of proanthocyanidin synthesis in Theobroma cacao.

BACKGROUND: The flavan-3-ols catechin and epicatechin, and their polymerized oligomers, the proanthocyanidins (PAs, also called condensed tannins), accumulate to levels of up to 15 % of the total weight of dry seeds of Theobroma cacao L. These compounds have been associated with several health benefits in humans. They also play important roles in pest and disease defense throughout the plant. In Arabidopsis, the R2R3 type MYB transcription factor TT2 regulates the major genes leading to the synthesis of PA. RESULTS: To explore the transcriptional regulation of the PA synthesis pathway in cacao, we isolated and characterized an R2R3 type MYB transcription factor MYBPA from cacao. We examined the spatial and temporal gene expression patterns of the Tc-MYBPA gene and found it to be developmentally expressed in a manner consistent with its involvement in PAs and anthocyanin synthesis. Functional complementation of an Arabidopsis tt2 mutant with Tc-MYBPA suggested that it can functionally substitute the Arabidopsis TT2 gene. Interestingly, in addition to PA accumulation in seeds of the Tc-MYBPA expressing plants, we also observed an obvious increase of anthocyanidin accumulation in hypocotyls. We observed that overexpression of the Tc-MYBPA gene resulted in increased expression of several key genes encoding the major structural enzymes of the PA and anthocyanidin pathway, including DFR (dihydroflavanol reductase), LDOX (leucoanthocyanidin dioxygenase) and BAN (ANR, anthocyanidin reductase). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the Tc-MYBPA gene that encodes an R2R3 type MYB transcription factor is an Arabidopsis TT2 like transcription factor, and may be involved in the regulation of both anthocyanin and PA synthesis in cacao. This research may provide molecular tools for breeding of cacao varieties with improved disease resistance and enhanced flavonoid profiles for nutritional and pharmaceutical applications.

Summary of the 2015 International Paediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children's Heart Institute.

In the United States alone, ∼14,000 children are hospitalised annually with acute heart failure. The science and art of caring for these patients continues to evolve. The International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children's Heart Institute was held on February 4 and 5, 2015. The 2015 International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children's Heart Institute was funded through the Andrews/Daicoff Cardiovascular Program Endowment, a philanthropic collaboration between All Children's Hospital and the Morsani College of Medicine at the University of South Florida (USF). Sponsored by All Children's Hospital Andrews/Daicoff Cardiovascular Program, the International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit assembled leaders in clinical and scientific disciplines related to paediatric heart failure and created a multi-disciplinary "think-tank". The purpose of this manuscript is to summarise the lessons from the 2015 International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children's Heart Institute, to describe the "state of the art" of the treatment of paediatric cardiac failure, and to discuss future directions for research in the domain of paediatric cardiac failure.

A cascade of warming impacts brings bluefin tuna to Greenland waters.

Rising ocean temperatures are causing marine fish species to shift spatial distributions and ranges, and are altering predator-prey dynamics in food webs. Most documented cases of species shifts so far involve relatively small species at lower trophic levels, and consider individual species in ecological isolation from others. Here, we show that a large highly migratory top predator fish species has entered a high latitude subpolar area beyond its usual range. Bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus Linnaeus 1758, were captured in waters east of Greenland (65°N) in August 2012 during exploratory fishing for Atlantic mackerel, Scomber scombrus Linnaeus 1758. The bluefin tuna were captured in a single net-haul in 9-11 °C water together with 6 tonnes of mackerel, which is a preferred prey species and itself a new immigrant to the area. Regional temperatures in August 2012 were historically high and contributed to a warming trend since 1985, when temperatures began to rise. The presence of bluefin tuna in this region is likely due to a combination of warm temperatures that are physiologically more tolerable and immigration of an important prey species to the region. We conclude that a cascade of climate change impacts is restructuring the food web in east Greenland waters.

Industrial sources of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) to a sewershed in Ontario, Canada.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are ubiquitous in the environment despite global regulatory action to restrict their use in industrial processes and products. The objective of this reconnaissance sampling was to understand current industrial use and ongoing sources of PFAS in Ontario. Fourteen PFAS were analyzed in effluents from four sectors: electroplaters, laundry and carpet cleaners, landfills, and circuit board manufacturers that discharge to sewersheds connected to wastewater treatment plants. Maximum concentrations were detected in carpet cleaning wastewater: 79,000 ng/L for perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), 26,000 ng/L perfluorooctane sulfate (PFOS), and 9400 ng/L perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). Total summed PFAS (∑PFAS14) concentrations were highest in laundry and carpet cleaners > electroplaters > landfill leachate > circuit boarders. These results indicate that PFAS continue to be used in select manufacturing and processing facilities and that the elevated levels are associated with past and current uses in commercial products.

Proanthocyanidin synthesis in Theobroma cacao: genes encoding anthocyanidin synthase, anthocyanidin reductase, and leucoanthocyanidin reductase.

BACKGROUND: The proanthocyanidins (PAs), a subgroup of flavonoids, accumulate to levels of approximately 10% total dry weight of cacao seeds. PAs have been associated with human health benefits and also play important roles in pest and disease defense throughout the plant. RESULTS: To dissect the genetic basis of PA biosynthetic pathway in cacao (Theobroma cacao), we have isolated three genes encoding key PA synthesis enzymes, anthocyanidin synthase (ANS), anthocyanidin reductase (ANR) and leucoanthocyanidin reductase (LAR). We measured the expression levels of TcANR, TcANS and TcLAR and PA content in cacao leaves, flowers, pod exocarp and seeds. In all tissues examined, all three genes were abundantly expressed and well correlated with PA accumulation levels, suggesting their active roles in PA synthesis. Overexpression of TcANR in an Arabidopsis ban mutant complemented the PA deficient phenotype in seeds and resulted in reduced anthocyanidin levels in hypocotyls. Overexpression of TcANS in tobacco resulted in increased content of both anthocyanidins and PAs in flower petals. Overexpression of TcANS in an Arabidopsis ldox mutant complemented its PA deficient phenotype in seeds. Recombinant TcLAR protein converted leucoanthocyanidin to catechin in vitro. Transgenic tobacco overexpressing TcLAR had decreased amounts of anthocyanidins and increased PAs. Overexpressing TcLAR in Arabidopsis ldox mutant also resulted in elevated synthesis of not only catechin but also epicatechin. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the in vivo function of cacao ANS and ANR predicted based on sequence homology to previously characterized enzymes from other species. In addition, our results provide a clear functional analysis of a LAR gene in vivo.

Assessment of seasonality and normalization techniques for wastewater-based surveillance in Ontario, Canada.

Introduction: Wastewater-based surveillance is at the forefront of monitoring for community prevalence of COVID-19, however, continued uncertainty exists regarding the use of fecal indicators for normalization of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater. Using three communities in Ontario, sampled from 2021-2023, the seasonality of a viral fecal indicator (pepper mild mottle virus, PMMoV) and the utility of normalization of data to improve correlations with clinical cases was examined. Methods: Wastewater samples from Warden, the Humber Air Management Facility (AMF), and Kitchener were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2, PMMoV, and crAssphage. The seasonality of PMMoV and flow rates were examined and compared by Season-Trend-Loess decomposition analysis. The effects of normalization using PMMoV, crAssphage, and flow rates were analyzed by comparing the correlations to clinical cases by episode date (CBED) during 2021. Results: Seasonal analysis demonstrated that PMMoV had similar trends at Humber AMF and Kitchener with peaks in January and April 2022 and low concentrations (troughs) in the summer months. Warden had similar trends but was more sporadic between the peaks and troughs for PMMoV concentrations. Flow demonstrated similar trends but was not correlated to PMMoV concentrations at Humber AMF and was very weak at Kitchener (r = 0.12). Despite the differences among the sewersheds, unnormalized SARS-CoV-2 (raw N1-N2) concentration in wastewater (n = 99-191) was strongly correlated to the CBED in the communities (r = 0.620-0.854) during 2021. Additionally, normalization with PMMoV did not improve the correlations at Warden and significantly reduced the correlations at Humber AMF and Kitchener. Flow normalization (n = 99-191) at Humber AMF and Kitchener and crAssphage normalization (n = 29-57) correlations at all three sites were not significantly different from raw N1-N2 correlations with CBED. Discussion: Differences in seasonal trends in viral biomarkers caused by differences in sewershed characteristics (flow, input, etc.) may play a role in determining how effective normalization may be for improving correlations (or not). This study highlights the importance of assessing the influence of viral fecal indicators on normalized SARS-CoV-2 or other viruses of concern. Fecal indicators used to normalize the target of interest may help or hinder establishing trends with clinical outcomes of interest in wastewater-based surveillance and needs to be considered carefully across seasons and sites.

Inadvertent prescription of gelatin-containing oral medication: its acceptability to patients.

When prescribing, doctors usually only consider the 'active' component of any drug's formulation ignoring the majority of the agents which make up the bulk of the tablet or capsule, collectively known as excipients. Many urological drugs contain the excipient gelatin which is, universally, of animal origin; this may conflict with the dietetic ideals of patients. A questionnaire-based study, undertaken between January and June 2010 in a mixed ethnicity inner-city population presenting with urological symptoms, asked which patients preferred not to ingest animal-based products, who would ask about the content of their prescribed treatment and who would refuse to take that medication if alternatives were available. Ultimately, the authors sought to find out how many patients had been inadvertently prescribed gelatin-containing oral medications and to suggest ways in which prescriptions might be more congruous with an individual patient's dietetic wishes. This study demonstrated that 43.2% of the study population would prefer not to take animal product-containing medication even if no alternative were available. 51% of men with lower urinary tract symptoms were also found to have inadvertently been prescribed gelatin-containing products against their preferred dietary restriction. Education of healthcare professionals about excipients and getting them to ask about a patient's dietetic preferences may help avoid inadvertent prescription of the excipient gelatin in oral medications. Substitution of gelatin with vegetable-based alternatives and clearer labelling on drug packaging are alternative strategies to help minimise the risks of inadvertently contravening a patient's dietetic beliefs when prescribing oral medication.

Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts.

Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet's changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the drivers of these shifts can be forecast up to a decade ahead, although forecasts of distribution shifts on this critical time-scale, while highly sought after by stakeholders, have yet to materialise. Here, we demonstrate the application of decadal-scale climate predictions to the habitat and distribution of marine fish species. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform baseline forecasts 3-10 years ahead; forecasts of multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients in excess of 0.90 in some cases. We also demonstrate that the habitat shifts underlying conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been foreseen. Our results show that climate predictions can provide information of direct relevance to stakeholders on the decadal-scale. This tool will be critical in foreseeing, adapting to and coping with the challenges of a changing future climate, particularly in the most ocean-dependent nations and communities.