The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review.

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

The future burden of type 2 diabetes in Belgium: a microsimulation model.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030. METHODS: This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0-80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities. RESULTS: A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions. CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment.

The collaborative framework for the management of tuberculosis and type 2 diabetes syndemic in low- and middle-income countries: a rapid review.

INTRODUCTION: Given the absence of international guidelines on the joint management and control of tuberculosis (TB) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union) launched in 2011 a policy framework to address the growing syndemic burden of TB-T2D. This review aimed at mapping the available evidence on the implementation of the Union-WHO Framework, explicitly, or bi-directional TB-T2D health programs as an initiative for co-management in patients in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: A rapid review was performed based on a systematic search in PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases for peer-reviewed articles on The Union-WHO Framework and bi-directional interventions of TB and T2D in LMIC. The search was restricted to English language articles and from 01/08/2011 to 20/05/2022. RESULTS: A total of 24 articles from 16 LMIC met the inclusion criteria. Four described the implementation of The Union-WHO Framework and 20 on the bi-directional interventions of TB and T2D. Bi-directional activities were found valuable, feasible and effective following the Union-WHO recommendations. Limited knowledge and awareness on TB-T2D comorbidity was identified as one of the barriers to ensure a functional and effective integration of services. CONCLUSIONS: This review revealed that it is valuable, feasible and effective to implement bi-directional TB and T2D activities (screening and management) according to the Union-WHO Framework recommendations, especially in countries that face TB-T2D syndemic. Additionally, it was apparent that gaps still exist in research aimed at providing evidence of costs to implement collaborative activities. There is need for TB and T2D services integration that should be done through the well-stablished TB programme. This integration of two vertical programmes, could ensure patient-centeredness, continuum of care and ultimately contribute for health systems strengthening.

The state of health in the European Union (EU-27) in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for "HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases" and "transport injuries" (each -19%). "Diabetes and kidney diseases" showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, "mental disorders" showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%). CONCLUSIONS: There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease.

Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is a significant health concern among European women, with the highest prevalence rates among all cancers. Existing BC prediction models account for major risks such as hereditary, hormonal and reproductive factors, but research suggests that adherence to a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing BC to some extent. Understanding the influence and predictive role of lifestyle variables in current risk prediction models could help identify actionable, modifiable, targets among high-risk population groups. PURPOSE: To systematically review population-based BC risk prediction models applicable to European populations and identify lifestyle predictors and their corresponding parameter values for a better understanding of their relative contribution to the prediction of incident BC. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (i) developed and/or validated in adult cancer-free women in Europe, (ii) based on easily ascertained information, and (iii) reported models' final predictors. To investigate further the comparability of lifestyle predictors across models, estimates were standardised into risk ratios and visualised using forest plots. RESULTS: From a total of 49 studies, 33 models were developed and 22 different existing models, mostly from Gail (22 studies) and Tyrer-Cuzick and co-workers (12 studies) were validated or modified for European populations. Family history of BC was the most frequently included predictor (31 models), while body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption (26 and 21 models, respectively) were the lifestyle predictors most often included, followed by smoking and physical activity (7 and 6 models respectively). Overall, for lifestyle predictors, their modest predictive contribution was greater for riskier lifestyle levels, though highly variable model estimates across different models. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing BC incidence rates in Europe, risk models utilising readily available risk factors could greatly aid in widening the population coverage of screening efforts, while the addition of lifestyle factors could help improving model performance and serve as intervention targets of prevention programmes.

Burden of disease among older adults in Europe-trends in mortality and disability, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the effects of population ageing on disease burden and explore conditions that drive poor health in later life to prevent or manage these. We examined the development of disease burden and its components for major disease groups among older adults in Europe over the last 30 years. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, we analyzed burden of disease trends between 1990 and 2019 measured by years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among older adults (65+ years) in Western, Central and Eastern Europe using cause groups for diseases and injuries. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the crude numbers of DALYs for all causes increased substantially among older Western Europeans. In Eastern Europe, the absolute DALYs also increased from 1990 to 2005 but then decreased between 2006 and 2013. However, DALY rates declined for all European regions over time, with large differences in the magnitude by region and gender. Changes in the YLL rate were mainly driven by the contribution of cardiovascular diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This study found an increased overall absolute disease burden among older Europeans between 1990 and 2019. The demographic change that has taken place in Eastern European countries implies a potential problem of directed resource allocation to the health care sector. Furthermore, the findings highlight the potential health gains through directing resources to health promotion and treatment to reduce YLDs and to prevent YLLs, primarily from cardiovascular diseases.

A retrospective database study of the demographic features and glycemic control of patients with type 2 diabetes in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: The Kin-Antwerp project aimed at improving the quality of care provided to patients with diabetes in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa, including the digitalisation of routine clinical data to improve patients' follow-up. We aim to analyse the data of a study population of Kin-Antwerp to characterise their demographic features, assess their achievement of glycemic target over time, and identify groups requiring prioritised attention. METHODS: We performed a secondary database analysis of routinely collected information from primary care patients with type 2 diabetes followed from 1991 to 2019. Data included demographics (age, sex), anthropometrics (weight, height), clinical parameters (blood pressure, plasma glucose), and anti-diabetic treatments. Achievement of glycemic target, defined as fasting plasma glucose < 126 mg/dL, over time was assessed using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model. RESULTS: Our study population of patients with type 2 diabetes (N = 8976) comprised a higher proportion of women (67%) and patients between 40 and 65 years old (70.4%). At the first follow-up, most patients were on treatment with insulin (56.5%) and had glycemic levels under the target (79.9%). Women presented more often with obesity (27.4%) and high systolic blood pressure (41.8%) than men (8.6% and 37.0%, respectively). Patients had a median follow-up of 1.8 (interquartile range: 0.5-3.4) years. Overall, the odds of achieving glycemic target increased by 18.4% (odds ratio: 1.184, 95% CI: 1.130 to 1.239; p < 0.001) per year of follow-up. Stratified analyses suggested that the odds of achieving glycemic control over time increased among older patients (> 40 years), but not among younger patients (< 40 years). CONCLUSION: In our study population, an overall poor glycemic control was observed albeit with a modest improvement in the achievement of glycemic target throughout patients' follow-up. Younger patients may benefit from prioritised attention to achieve glycemic targets. Based on the information provided by the database, continue monitoring and improvement of the project Kin-Antwerp is recommended. Introducing further efforts to improve type 2 diabetes management should include robust glycemia-monitoring tools and haemoglobin A1c, as well as further outlining self-management strategies.

Ultra-processed food consumption in adults across Europe.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to describe ultra-processed food and drinks (UPFDs) consumption, and associations with intake of total sugar and dietary fibre, and high BMI in adults across Europe. METHODS: Using food consumption data collected by food records or 24-h dietary recalls available from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database, the foods consumed were classified by the level of processing using the NOVA classification. Diet quality was assessed by data linkage to the Dutch food composition tables (NEVO) and years lived with disability for high BMI from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Bivariate groupings were carried out to explore associations of UPFDs consumption with population intake of sugar and dietary fibre, and BMI burden, visualised by scatterplots. RESULTS: The energy share from UPFDs varied markedly across the 22 European countries included, ranging from 14 to 44%, being the lowest in Italy and Romania, while the highest in the UK and Sweden. An overall modest decrease (2-15%) in UPFDs consumption is observed over time, except for Finland, Spain and the UK reporting increases (3-9%). Fine bakery wares and soft drinks were most frequently ranked as the main contributor. Countries with a higher sugar intake reported also a higher energy share from UPFDs, as most clearly observed for UPF (r = 0.57, p value = 0.032 for men; and r = 0.53, p value = 0.061 for women). No associations with fibre intake or high BMI were observed. CONCLUSION: Population-level UPFDs consumption substantially varied across Europe, although main contributors are similar. UPFDs consumption was not observed to be associated with country-level burden of high BMI, despite being related to a higher total sugar intake.

Cardiometabolic Profile and Outcomes in Migrant Populations: A Review of Comparative Evidence from Migrants in Europe in Relation to Their Country of Origin.

BACKGROUND: The potential effect of migration on increasing cardiometabolic risk factors remains partially understood. We aim to synthesize the evidence comparing the burden of diabetes and adiposity of migrating populations in Europe, with that of their country of origin. METHODS: We conducted a scoping literature review. We searched PubMed for studies investigating the effect of migration on diabetes or adiposity outcomes among migrants in countries from the European Union or the United Kingdom compared to the population in the country of origin. Studies were qualitatively synthesized in evidence tables and the demographic characteristics, study design, risk factors investigated, and outcomes were quantitatively summarized using measures of central tendency. FINDINGS: Of 1175 abstracts retrieved, 28 studies were eligible. Most of the studies included migrating populations residing in Western (50%), Northern (39%), and Southern Europe (11%) originating from countries in Africa (46%), Asia (29%), or European overseas (25%) regions of which 85% were classified as low-middle-income countries. Most of the studies (93%) had a cross-sectional design. The median number of individuals in the country of origin was greater [917; IQR: 231-1378] than in the receiving country [249; 150-883]. Thirty-five percent of the studies investigated migration as an independent risk factor, whereas 28% contextualized migration into lifestyle changes. The majority of the studies (57%) reported both diabetes and adiposity outcomes. Within the limited evidence available, controversial results were found as some studies showed poorer outcomes for the migrating populations, while others showed the opposite. CONCLUSION: Studies assessing the impact of migration by comparing migrating populations and the population of origin on diabetes and adiposity outcomes have gained interest. So far, the available evidence is highly heterogeneous to inform public health strategies in the receiving countries. We recommend further research including a more robust methodology and in-depth characterization of the migrant populations.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

Importance: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Rationale and design of the SI! Program for health promotion in elementary students aged 6 to 11 years: A cluster randomized trial.

Unhealthy habits in children are increasing at an alarming rate. The school provides a promising setting for effective preventive strategies to improve children's lifestyle behaviors. The SI! Program is a multilevel multicomponent school-based educational intervention aimed at all stages of compulsory education in Spain. Here, we present the design of the SI! Program for Elementary School cluster-randomized controlled trial, targeting children aged 6 to 11 years. This trial aims to study the impact of different timings and intensities of exposure to SI! Program activities on elementary school children and their immediate environment (parents/caregivers, teachers, and school). The trial includes 1770 children from 48 public elementary schools in Madrid (Spain), together with their parents and teachers. Schools and their children were randomly assigned to the intervention group (the SI! curriculum-based educational program over 3 or 6 academic years) or to the control group (standard curriculum). The primary outcomes are the change from baseline at 3-year and 6-year follow-up in children's scores for knowledge, attitudes, and habits (KAH) and health factors (blood pressure, height, weight, waist circumference, and skinfold thickness). Secondary outcomes include 3-year and 6-year changes from baseline in lifestyle questionnaire scores for parents/caregivers and teachers, and in the school environment questionnaire. The overarching goal of the SI! Program is to provide an effective and sustainable health promotion program for the adoption of healthy behaviors in children. The present trial will address the impact and the optimal timing and duration of this educational intervention in the elementary school setting.

Modeling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States: National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities.

BACKGROUND: Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities. METHODS AND RESULTS: To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ≈18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ≈27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths. CONCLUSIONS: After prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates.

Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a) a national mass media campaign (MMC) aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b) a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c) a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d) a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500) CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500) DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500) DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300) DPPs for a 10% SSB tax. Neither the MMC nor the individual national economic policies would significantly reduce CVD socio-economic disparities. However, the SNAP-targeted intervention might potentially reduce CVD disparities between SNAP participants and SNAP-ineligible individuals, by approximately 8% (10 DPPs per 100,000 population). The combined policy approach might save more lives than any single policy studied (approximately 230,000 DPPs by 2030) while also significantly reducing disparities, by approximately 6% (7 DPPs per 100,000 population). Limitations include our effect estimates in the model; these estimates use interventional and prospective observational studies (not exclusively randomised controlled trials). They are thus imperfect and should be interpreted as the best available evidence. Another key limitation is that we considered only CVD outcomes; the policies we explored would undoubtedly have additional beneficial effects upon other diseases. Further, we did not model or compare the cost-effectiveness of each proposed policy. CONCLUSIONS: Fiscal strategies targeting diet might substantially reduce CVD burdens. A national 10% F&V subsidy would save by far the most lives, while a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants would most reduce socio-economic disparities. A combined policy would have the greatest overall impact on both mortality and socio-economic disparities.

The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US. METHODS: Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES). RESULTS: Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

Association Between Dietary Factors and Mortality From Heart Disease, Stroke, and Type 2 Diabetes in the United States.

Importance: In the United States, national associations of individual dietary factors with specific cardiometabolic diseases are not well established. Objective: To estimate associations of intake of 10 specific dietary factors with mortality due to heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes (cardiometabolic mortality) among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: A comparative risk assessment model incorporated data and corresponding uncertainty on population demographics and dietary habits from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999-2002: n = 8104; 2009-2012: n = 8516); estimated associations of diet and disease from meta-analyses of prospective studies and clinical trials with validity analyses to assess potential bias; and estimated disease-specific national mortality from the National Center for Health Statistics. Exposures: Consumption of 10 foods/nutrients associated with cardiometabolic diseases: fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, and sodium. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated absolute and percentage mortality due to heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes in 2012. Disease-specific and demographic-specific (age, sex, race, and education) mortality and trends between 2002 and 2012 were also evaluated. Results: In 2012, 702 308 cardiometabolic deaths occurred in US adults, including 506 100 from heart disease (371 266 coronary heart disease, 35 019 hypertensive heart disease, and 99 815 other cardiovascular disease), 128 294 from stroke (16 125 ischemic, 32 591 hemorrhagic, and 79 578 other), and 67 914 from type 2 diabetes. Of these, an estimated 318 656 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 306 064-329 755; 45.4%) cardiometabolic deaths per year were associated with suboptimal intakes-48.6% (95% UI, 46.2%-50.9%) of cardiometabolic deaths in men and 41.8% (95% UI, 39.3%-44.2%) in women; 64.2% (95% UI, 60.6%-67.9%) at younger ages (25-34 years) and 35.7% (95% UI, 33.1%-38.1%) at older ages (≥75 years); 53.1% (95% UI, 51.6%-54.8%) among blacks, 50.0% (95% UI, 48.2%-51.8%) among Hispanics, and 42.8% (95% UI, 40.9%-44.5%) among whites; and 46.8% (95% UI, 44.9%-48.7%) among lower-, 45.7% (95% UI, 44.2%-47.4%) among medium-, and 39.1% (95% UI, 37.2%-41.2%) among higher-educated individuals. The largest numbers of estimated diet-related cardiometabolic deaths were related to high sodium (66 508 deaths in 2012; 9.5% of all cardiometabolic deaths), low nuts/seeds (59 374; 8.5%), high processed meats (57 766; 8.2%), low seafood omega-3 fats (54 626; 7.8%), low vegetables (53 410; 7.6%), low fruits (52 547; 7.5%), and high SSBs (51 694; 7.4%). Between 2002 and 2012, population-adjusted US cardiometabolic deaths per year decreased by 26.5%. The greatest decline was associated with insufficient polyunsaturated fats (-20.8% relative change [95% UI, -18.5% to -22.8%]), nuts/seeds (-18.0% [95% UI, -14.6% to -21.0%]), and excess SSBs (-14.5% [95% UI, -12.0% to -16.9%]). The greatest increase was associated with unprocessed red meats (+14.4% [95% UI, 9.1%-19.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Dietary factors were estimated to be associated with a substantial proportion of deaths from heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. These results should help identify priorities, guide public health planning, and inform strategies to alter dietary habits and improve health.

Prevalence, Vascular Distribution, and Multiterritorial Extent of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in a Middle-Aged Cohort: The PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) Study.

BACKGROUND: Data are limited on the presence, distribution, and extent of subclinical atherosclerosis in middle-aged populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: The PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) study prospectively enrolled 4184 asymptomatic participants 40 to 54 years of age (mean age, 45.8 years; 63% male) to evaluate the systemic extent of atherosclerosis in the carotid, abdominal aortic, and iliofemoral territories by 2-/3-dimensional ultrasound and coronary artery calcification by computed tomography. The extent of subclinical atherosclerosis, defined as presence of plaque or coronary artery calcification ≥1, was classified as focal (1 site affected), intermediate (2-3 sites), or generalized (4-6 sites) after exploration of each vascular site (right/left carotids, aorta, right/left iliofemorals, and coronary arteries). Subclinical atherosclerosis was present in 63% of participants (71% of men, 48% of women). Intermediate and generalized atherosclerosis was identified in 41%. Plaques were most common in the iliofemorals (44%), followed by the carotids (31%) and aorta (25%), whereas coronary artery calcification was present in 18%. Among participants with low Framingham Heart Study (FHS) 10-year risk, subclinical disease was detected in 58%, with intermediate or generalized disease in 36%. When longer-term risk was assessed (30-year FHS), 83% of participants at high risk had atherosclerosis, with 66% classified as intermediate or generalized. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical atherosclerosis was highly prevalent in this middle-aged cohort, with nearly half of the participants classified as having intermediate or generalized disease. Most participants at high FHS risk had subclinical disease; however, extensive atherosclerosis was also present in a substantial number of low-risk individuals, suggesting added value of imaging for diagnosis and prevention. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01410318.

Dietary Intake Among US Adults, 1999-2012.

IMPORTANCE: Most studies of US dietary trends have evaluated major macronutrients or only a few dietary factors. Understanding trends in summary measures of diet quality for multiple individual foods and nutrients, and the corresponding disparities among population subgroups, is crucial to identify challenges and opportunities to improve dietary intake for all US adults. OBJECTIVE: To characterize trends in overall diet quality and multiple dietary components related to major diseases among US adults, including by age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Repeated cross-sectional investigation using 24-hour dietary recalls in nationally representative samples including 33,932 noninstitutionalized US adults aged 20 years or older from 7 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles (1999-2012). The sample size per cycle ranged from 4237 to 5762. EXPOSURES: Calendar year and population sociodemographic subgroups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Survey-weighted, energy-adjusted mean consumption and proportion meeting targets of the American Heart Association (AHA) 2020 continuous diet scores, AHA score components (primary: total fruits and vegetables, whole grains, fish and shellfish, sugar-sweetened beverages, and sodium; secondary: nuts, seeds, and legumes, processed meat, and saturated fat), and other individual food groups and nutrients. RESULTS: Several overall dietary improvements were identified (P < .01 for trend for each). The AHA primary diet score (maximum of 50 points) improved from 19.0 to 21.2 (an improvement of 11.6%). The AHA secondary diet score (maximum of 80 points) improved from 35.1 to 38.5 (an improvement of 9.7%). Changes were attributable to increased consumption between 1999-2000 and 2011-2012 of whole grains (0.43 servings/d; 95% CI, 0.34-0.53 servings/d) and nuts or seeds (0.25 servings/d; 95% CI, 0.18-0.34 servings/d) (fish and shellfish intake also increased slightly) and to decreased consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (0.49 servings/d; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70 servings/d). No significant trend was observed for other score components, including total fruits and vegetables, processed meat, saturated fat, or sodium. The estimated percentage of US adults with poor diets (defined as <40% adherence to the primary AHA diet score components) declined from 55.9% to 45.6%, whereas the percentage with intermediate diets (defined as 40% to 79.9% adherence to the primary AHA diet score components) increased from 43.5% to 52.9%. Other dietary trends included increased consumption of whole fruit (0.15 servings/d; 95% CI, 0.05-0.26 servings/d) and decreased consumption of 100% fruit juice (0.11 servings/d; 95% CI, 0.04-0.18 servings/d). Disparities in diet quality were observed by race/ethnicity, education, and income level; for example, the estimated percentage of non-Hispanic white adults with a poor diet significantly declined (53.9% to 42.8%), whereas similar improvements were not observed for non-Hispanic black or Mexican American adults. There was little evidence of reductions in these disparities and some evidence of worsening by income level. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In nationally representative US surveys conducted between 1999 and 2012, several improvements in self-reported dietary habits were identified, with additional findings suggesting persistent or worsening disparities based on race/ethnicity, education level, and income level. These findings may inform discussions on emerging successes, areas for greater attention, and corresponding opportunities to improve the diets of individuals living in the United States.

Parental and self-reported dietary and physical activity habits in pre-school children and their socio-economic determinants.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the agreement between self-reported and parent-reported dietary and physical activity habits in children; and to evaluate the socio-economic determinants of healthier habits (Mediterranean diet and physical activity) among children. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of children recruited to a cluster-randomized controlled trial (Program SI!). Information about children's and parents' dietary and physical activity habits was obtained through validated questionnaires (Program SI! questionnaires, Kidmed, Krece Plus and Predimed scores). SETTING: Twenty-four schools in Madrid, Spain. SUBJECTS: Children (n 2062) aged 3-5 years and their parents (n 1949). RESULTS: There was positive agreement between parental- and self-reporting for three of the six children's habits examined. Parents' dietary and physical activity patterns were associated with those of their children. The main determinants of higher scores in children were higher parental age, the mother's scores, Spanish origin and higher awareness of human health (P<0·005). Children from parents with a low educational level had lower odds for scoring positively on items such as using olive oil (OR=0·23; 95 % CI 0·13, 0·41) and not skipping breakfast (OR=0·36; 95 % CI 0·23, 0·55), but higher odds for meeting the recommendations for consuming pulses (OR=1·71; 95 % CI 1·14, 2·55). Other habits being influenced by parental socio-economic status included the consumption of vegetables, fish, nuts, avoidance of fast food, and consumption of bakery products for breakfast. CONCLUSIONS: Children's habits may be influenced by their parents' health awareness and other socio-economic characteristics. These findings suggest that intervention strategies, even in very young children, should also target parents in order to achieve maximum success.

Design and development of an instrument to measure overall lifestyle habits for epidemiological research: the Mediterranean Lifestyle (MEDLIFE) index.

OBJECTIVE: To design and develop a questionnaire that can account for an individual's adherence to a Mediterranean lifestyle including the assessment of diet and physical activity patterns, as well as social interaction. DESIGN: The Mediterranean Lifestyle (MEDLIFE) index was created based on the current Spanish Mediterranean food guide pyramid. MEDLIFE is a twenty-eight-item derived index consisting of questions about food consumption (fifteen items), traditional Mediterranean dietary habits (seven items) and physical activity, rest and social interaction habits (six items). Linear regression models and Spearman rank correlation were fitted to assess content validity and internal consistency. SETTING: A subset of participants in the Aragon Workers' Health Study cohort (Zaragoza, Spain) provided the data for development of MEDLIFE. SUBJECTS: Participants (n 988) of the Aragon Workers' Health Study cohort in Spain. RESULTS: Mean MEDLIFE score was 11·3 (sd 2·6; range: 0-28), and the quintile distribution of MEDLIFE score showed a significant association with each of the individual items as well as with specific nutrients and lifestyle indicators (intra-validity). We also quantified MEDLIFE correspondence with previously reported diet quality indices and found significant correlations (ρ range: 0·44-0·53; P<0·001) for the Alternate Healthy Eating Index, the Alternate Mediterranean Diet Index and Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener. CONCLUSIONS: MEDLIFE is the first index to include an overall assessment of lifestyle habits. It is expected to be a more holistic tool to measure adherence to the Mediterranean lifestyle in epidemiological studies.