Using historical habitat loss to predict contemporary mammal extirpations in Neotropical forests.

Understanding which species will be extirpated in the aftermath of large-scale human disturbance is critical to mitigating biodiversity loss, particularly in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. Deforestation is the strongest driver of contemporary local extinctions in tropical forests but may occur at different tempos. The 2 most extensive tropical forest biomes in South America-the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon-have experienced historically divergent pathways of habitat loss and biodiversity decay, providing a unique case study to investigate rates of local species persistence on a single continent. We quantified medium- to large-bodied mammal species persistence across these biomes to elucidate how landscape configuration affects their persistence and associated ecological functions. We collected occurrence data for 617 assemblages of medium- to large-bodied mammal species (>1 kg) in the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon. Analyzing natural habitat cover based on satellite data (1985-2022), we employed descriptive statistics and generalized linear models (GLMs) to investigate ecospecies occurrence patterns in relation to habitat cover across the landscapes. The subregional erosion of Amazonian mammal assemblage diversity since the 1970s mirrors that observed since the colonial conquest of the Atlantic Forest, given that 52.8% of all Amazonian mammals are now on a similar trajectory. Four out of 5 large mammals in the Atlantic Forest were prone to extirpation, whereas 53% of Amazonian mammals were vulnerable to extirpation. Greater natural habitat cover increased the persistence likelihood of ecospecies in both biomes. These trends reflected a median local species loss 63.9% higher in the Atlantic Forest than in the Amazon, which appears to be moving toward a turning point of forest habitat loss and degradation. The contrasting trajectories of species persistence in the Amazon and Atlantic Forest domains underscore the importance of considering historical habitat loss pathways and regional biodiversity erosion in conservation strategies. By focusing on landscape configuration and identifying essential ecological functions associated with large vertebrate species, conservation planning and management practices can be better informed.

Uso de la pérdida histórica de hábitat para predecir la desaparición de mamíferos contemporáneos en los bosques neotropicales Resumen Tener conocimiento de cuáles especies desaparecerán después de una perturbación humana es de suma importancia para mitigar la pérdida de la biodiversidad, particularmente en los biomas híper diversos. La deforestación es la principal causante de las extinciones locales contemporáneas en los bosques tropicales, aunque puede ocurrir en diferentes tiempos. Los dos bosques tropicales más extensos de América del Sur - el Bosque Atlántico y la Amazonia - han experimentado formas históricamente divergentes de pérdida de hábitat y decadencia de biodiversidad, lo que proporciona un caso único de estudio para investigar las tasas de persistencia de las especies locales en un solo continente. Cuantificamos la persistencia de las especies de mamíferos de talla mediana a grande en estos dos bosques para aclarar cómo la configuración del paisaje afecta su persistencia y las funciones ecológicas asociadas. Recolectamos datos de presencia de 617 ensambles de especies de mamíferos de talla mediana a grande (>1 kg) en el Bosque Atlántico y en la Amazonia. Analizamos la cobertura natural del hábitat con base en datos satelitales (1985-2022) y empleamos estadística descriptiva y modelos lineales generalizados (MLG) para investigar los patrones de presencia de las eco especies en relación con la cobertura del hábitat en los distintos paisajes. La erosión subregional de la diversidad de ensambles de mamíferos en la Amazonia desde los 70s es igual a la observada en el Bosque Atlántico desde la conquista colonial, dado que 52.8% de todos los mamíferos amazónicos se encuentran en una trayectoria similar. Cuatro de los cinco grandes mamíferos en el Bosque Atlántico estaban propensos a desaparecer, mientras que el 53% de los mamíferos amazónicos estaban vulnerables a desaparecer. Una mayor cobertura natural del hábitat incrementó la probabilidad de persistencia de las eco especies en ambos bosques. Estas tendencias reflejaron una pérdida mediana de especies locales 63.9% mayor en el Bosque Atlántico que en la Amazonia, lo cual parece dirigirse hacia un momento decisivo para la degradación y pérdida del hábitat del bosque. Las trayectorias contrastantes de la persistencia de especies en el Bosque Atlántico y la Amazonia destacan la importancia de considerar dentro de las estrategias de conservación las maneras en las que se ha perdido históricamente el hábitat y la erosión de la biodiversidad regional. Si nos enfocamos en la configuración del paisaje y en la identificación de las funciones ecológicas esenciales asociadas con las especies grandes de vertebrados, podemos informar de mejor manera a la planeación de la conservación y las prácticas de manejo.

Sustainable-use protected areas catalyze enhanced livelihoods in rural Amazonia.

Finding new pathways for reconciling socioeconomic well-being and nature sustainability is critically important for contemporary societies, especially in tropical developing countries where sustaining local livelihoods often clashes with biodiversity conservation. Many projects aimed at reconciling the goals of biodiversity conservation and social aspirations within protected areas (PAs) have failed on one or both counts. Here, we investigate the social consequences of living either inside or outside sustainable-use PAs in the Brazilian Amazon, using data from more than 100 local communities along a 2,000-km section of a major Amazonian river. The PAs in this region are now widely viewed as conservation triumphs, having implemented community comanagement of fisheries and recovery of overexploited wildlife populations. We document clear differences in social welfare in communities inside and outside PAs. Specifically, communities inside PAs enjoy better access to health care, education, electricity, basic sanitation, and communication infrastructure. Moreover, living within a PA was the strongest predictor of household wealth, followed by cash-transfer programs and the number of people per household. These collective cobenefits clearly influence life satisfaction, with only 5% of all adult residents inside PAs aspiring to move to urban centers, compared with 58% of adults in unprotected areas. Our results clearly demonstrate that large-scale "win-win" conservation solutions are possible in tropical countries with limited financial and human resources and reinforce the need to genuinely empower local people in integrated conservation-development programs.

The historical ecology of the world's largest tropical country uniquely chronicled by its municipal coat-of-arms symbology.

Coats-of-arms representing municipal counties express local patterns of rural economics, natural resource and land use, features of the natural capital, and the cultural heritage of either aborigines or colonists. We reconstruct the subnational economic and political timeline of the world's largest tropical country using municipal coats-of-arms to reinterpret Brazil's historical ecology. We assessed all natural resource, biophysical, agricultural, and ethnocultural elements of 5,197 coats-of-arms (93.3%) distributed throughout Brazil. We extracted socioenvironmental co-variables for any municipality to understand and predict the relationships between social inequality, environmental degradation, and the historical ecology symbology. We analyzed data via ecological networks and structural equation models. Our results show that the portfolio of political-administrative symbology in coats-of-arms is an underutilized tool to understand the history of colonization frontiers. Although Brazil is arguably Earth's most species-rich country, generations of political leaders have historically failed to celebrate this biodiversity, instead prioritizing a symbology depicted by icons of frontier conquest and key natural resources. Brazilian historical ecology reflects the relentless depletion of the natural resource capital while ignoring profound social inequalities. Degradation of natural ecosystems is widespread in Brazilian economy, reflecting a legacy of boom-and-bust rural development that so far has failed to deliver sustainable socioeconomic prosperity.

Size and degree of protection of native forest remnants drive the local occupancy of an endangered neotropical primate.

Although the species-area relationship is well known, it may interact with and be augmented or cancelled out by other factors, such as local human disturbance. We used data on site occupancy of the Endangered blonde capuchin monkey (Sapajus flavius) based primarily on a standardized program of local interviews to model the influence of past human disturbance on the occurrence of this species across remaining forest patches of northeastern Brazil within the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga biomes. To do so, we assessed environmental covariates that best represent the history of human impacts. We then used single-species occupancy models to assess site occupancy, while controlling for detection error during sampling. Surprisingly, we obtained a higher occupancy rate in the more arid Caatinga remnants than in the more mesic Atlantic Forest. Habitat patch size, history of site protection, and annual precipitation were the best predictors of local occupancy. Historical human disturbance, including subsistence hunting, has exerted considerable impact on the modern distribution of the blonde capuchin, whose geographic range largely spans a region historically lacking any wildlife protection. Matrix vegetation structure across the Caatinga, which so far has averted large-scale mechanized agriculture, also creates a benign landscape that likely benefits contemporary capuchin occupancy. Local extinctions of this endangered primate will most likely continue unabated unless a ban on hunting in remaining Atlantic Forest and Caatinga fragments can be enforced.

Carbon payments can cost-effectively improve logging sustainability in the Amazon.

Selective logging is pervasive across the tropics and unsustainable logging depletes forest biodiversity and carbon stocks. Improving the sustainability of logging will be crucial for meeting climate targets. Carbon-based payment for ecosystem service schemes, including REDD+, give economic value to standing forests and can protect them from degradation, but only if the revenue from carbon payments is greater than the opportunity cost of forgone or reduced logging. We currently lack understanding of whether carbon payments are feasible for protecting Amazonian forests from logging, despite the Amazon holding the largest unexploited timber reserves and an expanding logging sector. Using financial data and inventories of >660,000 trees covering 52,000 ha of Brazilian forest concessions, we estimate the carbon price required to protect forests from logging. We estimate that a carbon price of $7.90 per tCO2 is sufficient to match the opportunity costs of all logging and fund protection of primary forest. Alternatively, improving the sustainability of logging operations by ensuring a greater proportion of trees are left uncut requires only slightly higher investments of $7.97-10.45 per tCO2. These prices fall well below the current compliance market rate and demonstrate a cost-effective opportunity to safeguard large tracts of the Amazon rainforest from further degradation.

Interacting elevational and latitudinal gradients determine bat diversity and distribution across the Neotropics.

New World bats are heavily affected by the biophysical setting shaped by elevation and latitude. This study seeks to understand the patterns of bat species diversity across elevational, latitudinal and vegetation height gradients throughout the Neotropics. Systematically gathered putative and empirical data on bat species distribution across the entire Neotropics were examined using descriptive statistics, spatial interpolation of bat taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity, generalized linear models, generalized linear mixed models and phylogenetic generalized least squares. We uncoupled the effects of elevation, latitude and vegetation height to predict Neotropical bat diversity, showing that dietary level, home range and habitat breadth were the most important ecological traits determining coarse-scale bat distributions. Latitude was largely responsible for sorting the regional species pool, whereas elevation appears to apply an additional local filter to this regional pool wherever tropical mountains are present, thereby shaping the structure of montane assemblages. Bats provide multiple ecosystem services and our results can help pinpoint priority areas for bat research and conservation across all Neotropics, elucidate the thresholds of species distributions, and highlight bat diversity hotspots at multiple scales.

Assembleias de morcegos neotropicais são fortemente moldadas pelo ambiente biofísico que, por sua vez, é determinado pela elevação e latitude. Buscamos compreender neste estudo os padrões de diversidade de espécies de morcegos em gradientes de altitude, latitude e altura da vegetação ao longo de todo o domínio neotropical. Examinamos dados teóricos e empíricos sobre a distribuição de espécies de morcegos neotropicais, coletados sistematicamente, usando estatística descritiva, interpolação espacial de diversidade taxonômica, funcional e filogenética, modelos lineares generalizados, modelos lineares generalizados mistos e modelos generalizados filogenéticos. Desacoplamos os efeitos da altitude, latitude e altura da vegetação para predizer a diversidade de morcegos neotropicais, mostrando que nível trófico, tamanho da área de vida e especificidade de uso de habitats foram os traços ecológicos mais importantes que determinam as distribuições de morcegos em grande escala. A latitude foi amplamente responsável por determinar o conjunto regional de espécies, enquanto que a elevação parece aplicar um filtro local adicional no conjunto quando na presença de montanhas tropicais, moldando assim a estrutura das assembleias montanas de morcegos. Os morcegos atuam em vários serviços ecossistêmicos e nossos resultados podem ajudar a identificar áreas prioritárias para pesquisa e conservação de morcegos em toda a região neotropical, elucidar os limites de distribuição de espécies e destacar pontos críticos de diversidade de morcegos em múltiplas escalas.

Determinants of population persistence and abundance of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates stranded in tropical forest land-bridge islands.

Megadams are among the key modern drivers of habitat and biodiversity loss in emerging economies. The Balbina Hydroelectric Dam of Central Brazilian Amazonia inundated 312,900 ha of primary forests and created approximately 3500 variable-sized islands that still harbor vertebrate populations after nearly 3 decades after isolation. We estimated the species richness, abundance, biomass, composition, and group size of medium- to large-bodied forest vertebrates in response to patch, landscape, and habitat-quality metrics across 37 islands and 3 continuous forest sites throughout the Balbina archipelago. We conducted 1168 km of diurnal censuses and had 12,420 camera-trapping days along 81 transects with 207 camera stations. We determined the number of individuals (or groups) detected per 10 km walked and the number of independent photographs per 10 camera-trapping days, respectively, for each species. We recorded 34 species, and patch area was the most significant predictor of vertebrate population relative abundance and aggregate biomass. The maximum group size of several group-living species was consistently larger on large islands and in continuous patches than on small islands. Most vertebrate populations were extirpated after inundation. Remaining populations are unlikely to survive further ecological disruptions. If all vertebrate species were once widely distributed before inundation, we estimated that approximately 75% of all individual vertebrates were lost from all 3546 islands and 7.4% of the animals in all persisting insular populations are highly likely to be extirpated. Our results demonstrate that population abundance estimates should be factored into predictions of community disassembly on small islands to robustly predict biodiversity outcomes. Given the rapidly escalating hydropower infrastructure projects in developing counties, we suggest that faunal abundance and biomass estimates be considered in environmental impact assessments and large strictly protected reserves be established to minimize detrimental effects of dams on biodiversity. Conserving large tracts of continuous forests represents the most critical conservation measure to ensure that animal populations can persist at natural densities in Amazonian forests.

Determinantes de la Persistencia Poblacional y la Abundancia de Vertebrados Terrestres y Arbóreos Varados en Islas con Puentes Terrestres en los Bosques Tropicales Resumen Las megapresas se encuentran entre los causantes modernos de la pérdida de hábitat y biodiversidad en las economías emergentes. La Presa Hidroeléctrica Balbina de la Amazonia central en Brasil inundó 312, 900 ha de bosques primarios y creó ∼3500 islas de tamaños variables que todavía albergan poblaciones de vertebrados después de casi tres décadas de aislamiento. Estimamos la riqueza de especies, abundancia, biomasa, composición y tamaño grupal de los vertebrados de talla mediana a grande del bosque como respuesta a la a las medidas de calidad del fragmento, paisaje y hábitat en 37 islas y tres sitios de bosque continuo en todo el archipiélago de Balbina. Realizamos censos diurnos a lo largo de 1,168 km y tuvimos 12,420 días de trampeo con cámaras a lo largo de 81 transectos con 207 estaciones de cámara. Determinamos el número de individuos (o grupos) detectados en cada diez kilómetros recorridos y el número de fotografías independientes para cada diez días de trampeo con cámara, respectivamente, para cada especie. Registramos 34 especies y el área del fragmento fue el pronosticador más importante de la población de vertebrados en relación con la abundancia y la biomasa agregada. El tamaño grupal máximo de varias de las especies gregarias fue sistemáticamente mayor en las islas grandes y en los fragmentos continuos que en las islas pequeñas. La mayoría de las poblaciones de vertebrados fueron extirpadas después de la inundación. Las poblaciones remanentes tienen pocas probabilidades de sobrevivir más perturbaciones ecológicas. Si todas las especies de vertebrados tuvieron alguna vez una distribución amplia previa a la inundación, estimamos que se perdió ∼75% de todos los vertebrados individuales en todas las 3, 546 islas y el 7.4% de los animales en las poblaciones insulares remanentes tienen una alta probabilidad de desaparecer. Nuestros resultados demuestran que las estimaciones de abundancia poblacional deberían incluirse en las predicciones del desmontaje comunitario en islas pequeñas para predecir con solidez los resultados de biodiversidad. Ya que cada vez existen más proyectos de infraestructura hidroeléctrica en los países en desarrollo, sugerimos que las estimaciones de abundancia de fauna y de biomasa sean consideradas en las evaluaciones de impacto ambiental y que se establezcan grandes reservas con protección estricta para minimizar los efectos dañinos que tienen las presas sobre la biodiversidad. La conservación de grandes tramos continuos de bosque representa la medida de conservación más crítica para asegurar que las poblaciones animales puedan persistir con densidades naturales en los bosques de la Amazonia.

Primate conservation: Lessons learned in the last 20 years can guide future efforts.

Twenty years ago, we published an assessment of the threats facing primates and with the passing of two decades, we re-evaluate identified threats, consider emerging pressures, identify exciting new avenues of research, and tackle how to change the system to rapidly advance primate and primate habitat conservation. Habitat destruction and hunting have increased, the danger of looming climate change is clearer, and there are emerging threats such as the sublethal effects of microplastics and pesticides. Despite these negative developments, protected areas are increasing, exciting new tools are now available, and the number of studies has grown exponentially. Many of the changes that need to occur to make rapid progress in primate conservation are in our purview to modify. We identify several dimensions indicating the time is right to make large advances; however, the question that remains is do we have the will to prevent widespread primate annihilation and extinction?

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming.

Habitat determinants of golden-headed lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) occupancy of cacao agroforests: Gloomy conservation prospects for management intensification.

Organismal distributions in human-modified landscapes largely depend on the capacity of any given species to adapt to changes in habitat structure and quality. The golden-headed lion tamarin (GHLT; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) is an Endangered primate from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest whose remaining populations occupy heterogeneous landscapes consisting primarily of shade cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforestry, locally known as cabrucas. This cash crop can coexist with high densities of native tree species and holds a significant proportion of the native fauna, but its widely extolled wildlife-friendly status is increasingly threatened by management intensification. Although this potentially threatens to reduce the distribution of GHLTs, the main determinants of tamarin's occupancy of cabrucas remain unknown, thereby limiting our ability to design and implement appropriate conservation practices. We surveyed 16 cabruca patches in southern Bahia, Brazil, and used occupancy modeling to identify the best predictors of GHLT patch occupancy. Key explanatory variables included vegetation structure, critical resources, landscape context, human disturbance, and predation pressure. We found a negative relationship between GHLT occupancy and the prevalence of jackfruit trees (Artocarpus heterophylus), which is likely associated with the low representation of other key food species for GHLTs. Conversely, cabrucas retaining large-diameter canopy trees have a higher probability of GHLT occupancy, likely because these trees provide preferred sleeping sites. Thus, key large tree resources (food and shelter) are currently the main drivers of GHLT occupancy within cabruca agroecosystems. Since both factors can be directly affected by crop management practices, intensification of cabrucas may induce significant habitat impacts on GHLT populations over much of their remaining range-wide distribution.

Eating plants and planting forests for the climate.

The IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land addresses the closely coupled relationship between land use and climate change. The report notes the climate change mitigation potential of dietary shifts and afforestation. Here, we briefly discuss how decreases in ruminant meat consumption associated with dietary shifts have the potential to free up area for forests, allowing for greater CO2 sequestration and benefiting biodiversity, while simultaneously reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Dispersal limitation induces long-term biomass collapse in overhunted Amazonian forests.

Tropical forests are the global cornerstone of biological diversity, and store 55% of the forest carbon stock globally, yet sustained provisioning of these forest ecosystem services may be threatened by hunting-induced extinctions of plant-animal mutualisms that maintain long-term forest dynamics. Large-bodied Atelinae primates and tapirs in particular offer nonredundant seed-dispersal services for many large-seeded Neotropical tree species, which on average have higher wood density than smaller-seeded and wind-dispersed trees. We used field data and models to project the spatial impact of hunting on large primates by ∼ 1 million rural households throughout the Brazilian Amazon. We then used a unique baseline dataset on 2,345 1-ha tree plots arrayed across the Brazilian Amazon to model changes in aboveground forest biomass under different scenarios of hunting-induced large-bodied frugivore extirpation. We project that defaunation of the most harvest-sensitive species will lead to losses in aboveground biomass of between 2.5-5.8% on average, with some losses as high as 26.5-37.8%. These findings highlight an urgent need to manage the sustainability of game hunting in both protected and unprotected tropical forests, and place full biodiversity integrity, including populations of large frugivorous vertebrates, firmly in the agenda of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) programs.

Small mammal responses to Amazonian forest islands are modulated by their forest dependence.

Hydroelectric dams have induced widespread loss, fragmentation and degradation of terrestrial habitats in lowland tropical forests. Yet their ecological impacts have been widely neglected, particularly in developing countries, which are currently earmarked for exponential hydropower development. Here we assess small mammal assemblage responses to Amazonian forest habitat insularization induced by the 28-year-old Balbina Hydroelectric Dam. We sampled small mammals on 25 forest islands (0.83-1466 ha) and four continuous forest sites in the mainland to assess the overall community structure and species-specific responses to forest insularization. We classified all species according to their degree of forest-dependency using a multi-scale approach, considering landscape, patch and local habitat characteristics. Based on 65,520 trap-nights, we recorded 884 individuals of at least 22 small mammal species. Species richness was best predicted by island area and isolation, with small islands (< 15 ha) harbouring an impoverished nested subset of species (mean ± SD: 2.6 ± 1.3 species), whereas large islands (> 200 ha; 10.8 ± 1.3 species) and continuous forest sites (∞ ha; 12.5 ± 2.5 species) exhibited similarly high species richness. Forest-dependent species showed higher local extinction rates and were often either absent or persisted at low abundances on small islands, where non-forest-dependent species became hyper-abundant. Species capacity to use non-forest habitat matrices appears to dictate small mammal success in small isolated islands. We suggest that ecosystem functioning may be highly disrupted on small islands, which account for 62.7% of all 3546 islands in the Balbina Reservoir.

Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity.

Human-driven land-use changes increasingly threaten biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests where both species diversity and human pressures on natural environments are high. The rapid conversion of tropical forests for agriculture, timber production and other uses has generated vast, human-dominated landscapes with potentially dire consequences for tropical biodiversity. Today, few truly undisturbed tropical forests exist, whereas those degraded by repeated logging and fires, as well as secondary and plantation forests, are rapidly expanding. Here we provide a global assessment of the impact of disturbance and land conversion on biodiversity in tropical forests using a meta-analysis of 138 studies. We analysed 2,220 pairwise comparisons of biodiversity values in primary forests (with little or no human disturbance) and disturbed forests. We found that biodiversity values were substantially lower in degraded forests, but that this varied considerably by geographic region, taxonomic group, ecological metric and disturbance type. Even after partly accounting for confounding colonization and succession effects due to the composition of surrounding habitats, isolation and time since disturbance, we find that most forms of forest degradation have an overwhelmingly detrimental effect on tropical biodiversity. Our results clearly indicate that when it comes to maintaining tropical biodiversity, there is no substitute for primary forests.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Determinants of spatial behavior of a tropical forest seed predator: The roles of optimal foraging, dietary diversification, and home range defense.

Specialized seed predators in tropical forests may avoid seasonal food scarcity and interspecific feeding competition but may need to diversify their daily diet to limit ingestion of any given toxin. Seed predators may, therefore, adopt foraging strategies that favor dietary diversity and resource monitoring, rather than efficient energy intake, as suggested by optimal foraging theory. We tested whether fine-scale space use by a small-group-living seed predator-the bald-faced saki monkey (Pithecia irrorata)-reflected optimization of short-term foraging efficiency, maximization of daily dietary diversity, and/or responses to the threat of territorial encroachment by neighboring groups. Food patches across home ranges of five adjacent saki groups were widely spread, but areas with higher densities of stems or food species were not allocated greater feeding time. Foraging patterns-specifically, relatively long daily travel paths that bypassed available fruiting trees and relatively short feeding bouts in undepleted food patches-suggest a strategy that maximizes dietary diversification, rather than "optimal" foraging. Travel distance was unrelated to the proportion of seeds in the diet. Moreover, while taxonomically diverse, the daily diets of our study groups were no more species-rich than randomly derived diets based on co-occurring available food species. Sakis preferentially used overlapping areas of their HRs, within which adjacent groups shared many food trees, yet the density of food plants or food species in these areas was no greater than in other HR areas. The high likelihood of depletion by neighboring groups of otherwise enduring food sources may encourage monitoring of peripheral food patches in overlap areas, even if at the expense of immediate energy intake, suggesting that between-group competition is a key driver of fine-scale home range use in sakis.

Geographic comparison of plant genera used in frugivory among the pitheciids Cacajao, Callicebus, Chiropotes, and Pithecia.

Pitheciids are known for their frugivorous diets, but there has been no broad-scale comparison of fruit genera used by these primates that range across five geographic regions in South America. We compiled 31 fruit lists from data collected from 18 species (three Cacajao, six Callicebus, five Chiropotes, and four Pithecia) at 26 study sites in six countries. Together, these lists contained 455 plant genera from 96 families. We predicted that 1) closely related Chiropotes and Cacajao would demonstrate the greatest similarity in fruit lists; 2) pitheciids living in closer geographic proximity would have greater similarities in fruit lists; and 3) fruit genus richness would be lower in lists from forest fragments than continuous forests. Fruit genus richness was greatest for the composite Chiropotes list, even though Pithecia had the greatest overall sampling effort. We also found that the Callicebus composite fruit list had lower similarity scores in comparison with the composite food lists of the other three genera (both within and between geographic areas). Chiropotes and Pithecia showed strongest similarities in fruit lists, followed by sister taxa Chiropotes and Cacajao. Overall, pitheciids in closer proximity had more similarities in their fruit list, and this pattern was evident in the fruit lists for both Callicebus and Chiropotes. There was no difference in the number of fruit genera used by pitheciids in habitat fragments and continuous forest. Our findings demonstrate that pitheciids use a variety of fruit genera, but phylogenetic and geographic patterns in fruit use are not consistent across all pitheciid genera. This study represents the most extensive examination of pitheciid fruit consumption to date, but future research is needed to investigate the extent to which the trends in fruit genus richness noted here are attributable to habitat differences among study sites, differences in feeding ecology, or a combination of both.

Predicting extinction risk of Brazilian Atlantic forest angiosperms.

Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular-based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread.

Predicting primate local extinctions within "real-world" forest fragments: a pan-neotropical analysis.

Understanding the main drivers of species extinction in human-modified landscapes has gained paramount importance in proposing sound conservation strategies. Primates play a crucial role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystem functions and represent the best studied order of tropical terrestrial vertebrates, yet primate species diverge widely in their responses to forest habitat disturbance and fragmentation. Here, we present a robust quantitative review on the synergistic effects of habitat fragmentation on Neotropical forest primates to pinpoint the drivers of species extinction across a wide range of forest patches from Mexico to Argentina. Presence-absence data on 19 primate functional groups were compiled from 705 forest patches and 55 adjacent continuous forest sites, which were nested within 61 landscapes investigated by 96 studies. Forest patches were defined in terms of their size, surrounding matrix and level of hunting pressure on primates, and each functional group was classified according to seven life-history traits. Generalized linear mixed models showed that patch size, forest cover, level of hunting pressure, home range size and trophic status were the main predictors of species persistence within forest isolates for all functional groups pooled together. However, patterns of local extinction varied greatly across taxa, with Alouatta and Callicebus moloch showing the highest occupancy rates even within tiny forest patches, whereas Brachyteles and Leontopithecus occupied fewer than 50% of sites, even in relatively large forest tracts. Our results uncover the main predictors of platyrrhine primate species extinction, highlighting the importance of considering the history of anthropogenic disturbances, the structure of landscapes, and species life-history attributes in predicting primate persistence in Neotropical forest patches. We suggest that large-scale conservation planning of fragmented forest landscapes should prioritize and set-aside large, well-connected and strictly protected forest reserves to maximize species persistence across the entire spectrum of primate life-history.

One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains.

Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.