Relationship between Measures of HIV Reactivation and Decline of the Latent Reservoir under Latency-Reversing Agents.

Antiretroviral-free HIV remission requires substantial reduction of the number of latently infected cells and enhanced immune control of viremia. Latency-reversing agents (LRAs) aim to eliminate latently infected cells by increasing the rate of reactivation of HIV transcription, which exposes these cells to killing by the immune system. As LRAs are explored in clinical trials, it becomes increasingly important to assess the effect of an increased HIV reactivation rate on the decline of latently infected cells and to estimate LRA efficacy in increasing virus reactivation. However, whether the extent of HIV reactivation is a good predictor of the rate of decline of the number of latently infected cells is dependent on a number of factors. Our modeling shows that the mechanisms of maintenance and clearance of the reservoir, the life span of cells with reactivated HIV, and other factors may significantly impact the relationship between measures of HIV reactivation and the decline in the number of latently infected cells. The usual measures of HIV reactivation are the increase in cell-associated HIV RNA (CA RNA) and/or plasma HIV RNA soon after administration. We analyze two recent studies where CA RNA was used to estimate the impact of two novel LRAs, panobinostat and romidepsin. Both drugs increased the CA RNA level 3- to 4-fold in clinical trials. However, cells with panobinostat-reactivated HIV appeared long-lived (half-life > 1 month), suggesting that the HIV reactivation rate increased by approximately 8%. With romidepsin, the life span of cells that reactivated HIV was short (2 days), suggesting that the HIV reactivation rate may have doubled under treatment.IMPORTANCE Long-lived latently infected cells that persist on antiretroviral treatment (ART) are thought to be the source of viral rebound soon after ART interruption. The elimination of latently infected cells is an important step in achieving antiretroviral-free HIV remission. Latency-reversing agents (LRAs) aim to activate HIV expression in latently infected cells, which could lead to their death. Here, we discuss the possible impact of the LRAs on the reduction of the number of latently infected cells, depending on the mechanisms of their loss and self-renewal and on the life span of the cells that have HIV transcription activated by the LRAs.

Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting due to chronic malnutrition is a major problem in low- and middle-income countries due, in part, to inadequate nutrition-related practices and insufficient access to services. Limited budgets for nutritional interventions mean that available resources must be targeted in the most cost-effective manner to have the greatest impact. Quantitative tools can help guide budget allocation decisions. METHODS: The Optima approach is an established framework to conduct resource allocation optimization analyses. We applied this approach to develop a new tool, 'Optima Nutrition', for conducting allocative efficiency analyses that address childhood stunting. At the core of the Optima approach is an epidemiological model for assessing the burden of disease; we use an adapted version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Six nutritional interventions have been included in the first release of the tool: antenatal micronutrient supplementation, balanced energy-protein supplementation, exclusive breastfeeding promotion, promotion of improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices, public provision of complementary foods, and vitamin A supplementation. To demonstrate the use of this tool, we applied it to evaluate the optimal allocation of resources in 7 districts in Bangladesh, using both publicly available data (such as through DHS) and data from a complementary costing study. RESULTS: Optima Nutrition can be used to estimate how to target resources to improve nutrition outcomes. Specifically, for the Bangladesh example, despite only limited nutrition-related funding available (an estimated $0.75 per person in need per year), even without any extra resources, better targeting of investments in nutrition programming could increase the cumulative number of children living without stunting by 1.3 million (an extra 5%) by 2030 compared to the current resource allocation. To minimize stunting, priority interventions should include promotion of improved IYCF practices as well as vitamin A supplementation. Once these programs are adequately funded, the public provision of complementary foods should be funded as the next priority. Programmatic efforts should give greatest emphasis to the regions of Dhaka and Chittagong, which have the greatest number of stunted children. CONCLUSIONS: A resource optimization tool can provide important guidance for targeting nutrition investments to achieve greater impact.

Correction to: Optima nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions.

It has been highlighted that the original manuscript [1] contains a typesetting error in the name of Meera Shekar. This had been incorrectly captured as Meera Shekhar in the original article which has since been updated.

Epitope-specific CD8+ T cell kinetics rather than viral variability determine the timing of immune escape in simian immunodeficiency virus infection.

CD8(+) T cells are important for the control of chronic HIV infection. However, the virus rapidly acquires "escape mutations" that reduce CD8(+) T cell recognition and viral control. The timing of when immune escape occurs at a given epitope varies widely among patients and also among different epitopes within a patient. The strength of the CD8(+) T cell response, as well as mutation rates, patterns of particular amino acids undergoing escape, and growth rates of escape mutants, may affect when escape occurs. In this study, we analyze the epitope-specific CD8(+) T cells in 25 SIV-infected pigtail macaques responding to three SIV epitopes. Two epitopes showed a variable escape pattern and one had a highly monomorphic escape pattern. Despite very different patterns, immune escape occurs with a similar delay of on average 18 d after the epitope-specific CD8(+) T cells reach 0.5% of total CD8(+) T cells. We find that the most delayed escape occurs in one of the highly variable epitopes, and that this is associated with a delay in the epitope-specific CD8(+) T cells responding to this epitope. When we analyzed the kinetics of immune escape, we found that multiple escape mutants emerge simultaneously during the escape, implying that a diverse population of potential escape mutants is present during immune selection. Our results suggest that the conservation or variability of an epitope does not appear to affect the timing of immune escape in SIV. Instead, timing of escape is largely determined by the kinetics of epitope-specific CD8(+) T cells.

Understanding the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum growth rate and multiplicity of infection.

Natural infections with Plasmodium falciparum are often composed of multiple concurrent genetically distinct parasite clones. Such multiclonal infections are more common in areas of high transmission, and the frequency of multiclonal infection also varies with age. A number of studies have suggested that multiclonal infection predicts the risk of subsequent clinical malaria. The multiplicity of infection is determined by the rate of new infections, the number of clones inoculated at each mosquito bite, and the duration of infections. Here, we used a mathematical modeling approach to understand how variation in the growth rate of blood-stage parasites affects the observed multiplicity of infection (MOI), as well as the relationship between the MOI and the risk of subsequent malaria. We then analyzed data from a study of multiclonal infection and malaria in an malaria-endemic area in Tanzania and show that the proportion of multiclonal infections varies with age and that the observed relationship between multiclonal infection and subsequent clinical events can be explained by a reduction in blood-stage parasite growth with age in this population.

Modeling the timing of antilatency drug administration during HIV treatment.

UNLABELLED: Latently infected cells are considered a major barrier to the cure of HIV infection, since they are long-lived under antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cause viral replication to restart soon after stopping ART. In the last decade, different types of antilatency drugs have been explored with the aim of reactivating and purging this latent reservoir and the hope of achieving a cure. Because of toxicity and safety considerations, antilatency drugs can only be given for a short time to patients on long-term ART, with little effect. We recently investigated the turnover of latently infected cells during active infection and have found that it was strongly correlated with viral load. This implies that although latently infected cells had long life spans in a setting of a low viral load (such as during ART), they turned over quickly under a high viral load. Possible reasons for this could be that an increased viral load causes increased activation or death of CD4(+) T cells, including those that are latently infected. Taking these results into account, we developed a mathematical model to study the most appropriate timing of antilatency drugs in relationship to the initiation of ART. We found that the best timing of a short-term antilatency drug would be the start of ART, when viral load, CD4(+) T cell activation, and latent cell turnover are all high. These results have important implications for the design of HIV cure-related clinical trials. IMPORTANCE: The antiretroviral therapy (ART) of HIV-infected patients currently needs to be lifelong, because the cells latently infected with HIV start new rounds of infection as soon as the treatment is stopped. In the last decade, a number of different types of antilatency drugs have been explored with the aim of "reactivating" and "purging" this latent reservoir and thus achieving a cure. These drugs have thus far been tested on patients only after long-term ART and have demonstrated little or no effect. We use mathematical modeling to show that the most efficacious timing of a short-term antilatency treatment may be the start of ART because of possible interactions of antilatency drugs with natural activation pathways.

Intracellular dynamics of HIV infection.

Early studies of HIV infection dynamics suggested that virus-producing HIV-infected cells had an average half-life of approximately 1 day. However, whether this average behavior is reflective of the dynamics of individual infected cells is unclear. Here, we use HIV-enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) constructs and flow cytometry sorting to explore the dynamics of cell infection, viral protein production, and cell death in vitro. By following the numbers of productively infected cells expressing EGFP over time, we show that infected cell death slows down over time. Although infected cell death in vivo could be very different, our results suggest that the constant decay of cell numbers observed in vivo during antiretroviral treatment could reflect a balance of cell death and delayed viral protein production. We observe no correlation between viral protein production and death rate of productively infected cells, showing that viral protein production is not likely to be the sole determinant of the death of HIV-infected cells. Finally, we show that all observed features can be reproduced by a simple model in which infected cells have broad distributions of productive life spans, times to start viral protein production, and viral protein production rates. This broad spectrum of the level and timing of viral protein production provides new insights into the behavior and characteristics of HIV-infected cells.

Decreased growth rate of P. falciparum blood stage parasitemia with age in a holoendemic population.

In malaria holoendemic settings, decreased parasitemia and clinical disease is associated with age and cumulative exposure. The relative contribution of acquired immunity against various stages of the parasite life cycle is not well understood. In particular, it is not known whether changes in infection dynamics can be best explained by decreasing rates of infection, or by decreased growth rates of parasites in blood. Here, we analyze the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum infection after treatment in a cohort of 197 healthy study participants of different ages. We use both polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and microscopy detection of parasitemia in order to understand parasite growth rates and infection rates over time. The more sensitive PCR assay detects parasites earlier than microscopy, and demonstrates a higher overall prevalence of infection than microscopy alone. The delay between PCR and microscopy detection is significantly longer in adults compared with children, consistent with slower parasite growth with age. We estimated the parasite multiplication rate from delay to PCR and microscopy detections of parasitemia. We find that both the delay between PCR and microscopy infection as well as the differing reinfection dynamics in different age groups are best explained by a slowing of parasite growth with age.

Standard trivalent influenza virus protein vaccination does not prime antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity in macaques.

Yearly vaccination with the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) is recommended, since current vaccines induce little cross neutralization to divergent influenza strains. Whether the TIV can induce antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses that can cross-recognize divergent influenza virus strains is unknown. We immunized 6 influenza-naive pigtail macaques twice with the 2011-2012 season TIV and then challenged the macaques, along with 12 control macaques, serially with H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. We measured ADCC responses in plasma to a panel of H1 and H3 hemagglutinin (HA) proteins and influenza virus-specific CD8 T cell (CTL) responses using a sensitive major histocompatibility complex (MHC) tetramer reagent. The TIV was weakly immunogenic and, although binding antibodies were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), did not induce detectable influenza virus-specific ADCC or CTL responses. The H1N1 challenge elicited robust ADCC to both homologous and heterologous H1 HA proteins, but not influenza virus HA proteins from different subtypes (H2 to H7). There was no anamnestic influenza virus-specific ADCC or CTL response in vaccinated animals. The subsequent H3N2 challenge did not induce or boost ADCC either to H1 HA proteins or to divergent H3 proteins but did boost CTL responses. ADCC or CTL responses were not induced by TIV vaccination in influenza-naive macaques. There was a marked difference in the ability of infection compared to that of vaccination to induce cross-reactive ADCC and CTL responses. Improved vaccination strategies are needed to induce broad-based ADCC immunity to influenza.

Trivalent live attenuated influenza-simian immunodeficiency virus vaccines: efficacy and evolution of cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape in macaques.

There is an urgent need for a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine that induces robust mucosal immunity. CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) apply substantial antiviral pressure, but CTLs to individual epitopes select for immune escape variants in both HIV in humans and SIV in macaques. Inducing multiple simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-specific CTLs may assist in controlling viremia. We vaccinated 10 Mane-A1*08401(+) female pigtail macaques with recombinant influenza viruses expressing three Mane-A1*08401-restricted SIV-specific CTL epitopes and subsequently challenged the animals, along with five controls, intravaginally with SIV(mac251). Seroconversion to the influenza virus vector resulted and small, but detectable, SIV-specific CTL responses were induced. There was a boost in CTL responses after challenge but no protection from high-level viremia or CD4 depletion was observed. All three CTL epitopes underwent a coordinated pattern of immune escape during early SIV infection. CTL escape was more rapid in the vaccinees than in the controls at the more dominant CTL epitopes. Although CTL escape can incur a "fitness" cost to the virus, a putative compensatory mutation 20 amino acids upstream from an immunodominant Gag CTL epitope also evolved soon after the primary CTL escape mutation. We conclude that vaccines based only on CTL epitopes will likely be undermined by rapid evolution of both CTL escape and compensatory mutations. More potent and possibly broader immune responses may be required to protect pigtail macaques from SIV.

An "escape clock" for estimating the turnover of SIV DNA in resting CD4⁺ T cells.

Persistence of HIV DNA presents a major barrier to the complete control of HIV infection under current therapies. Most studies suggest that cells with latently integrated HIV decay very slowly under therapy. However, it is much more difficult to study the turnover and persistence of HIV DNA during active infection. We have developed an "escape clock" approach for measuring the turnover of HIV DNA in resting CD4+ T cells. This approach studies the replacement of wild-type (WT) SIV DNA present in early infection by CTL escape mutant (EM) strains during later infection. Using a strain-specific real time PCR assay, we quantified the relative amounts of WT and EM strains in plasma SIV RNA and cellular SIV DNA. Thus we can track the formation and turnover of SIV DNA in sorted resting CD4+ T cells. We studied serial plasma and PBMC samples from 20 SIV-infected Mane-A*10 positive pigtail macaques that have a signature Gag CTL escape mutation. In animals with low viral load, WT virus laid down early in infection is extremely stable, and the decay of this WT species is very slow, consistent with findings in subjects on anti-retroviral medications. However, during active, high level infection, most SIV DNA in resting cells was turning over rapidly, suggesting a large pool of short-lived DNA produced by recent infection events. Our results suggest that, in order to reduce the formation of a stable population of SIV DNA, it will be important either to intervene very early or intervene during active replication.

Estimating the contribution of the gut to plasma viral load in early SIV infection.

BACKGROUND: There is significant debate about whether the gut plays a major role in viral replication and pathology in HIV infection. Here we aimed to estimate the contribution of the gut to the total virus observed in plasma, by comparing the frequency of different viral mutants in plasma and gut in SIV infection. RESULTS: We found that the maximum contribution of gut to plasma viral load estimated from rectal biopsy at day 28 post-infection had a median of 10%. The estimated values for individual animals ranged from nearly 100% to <3% in 4/14 animals. Importantly, these are maximum estimates, so that a value of 90%, for example, means that the real contribution may be anything between 0 and 90%, just not higher than 90%.We also studied the contribution of gut at the peak of plasma viral load (day 14). However, since there was very little escape in most animals at this time point, we could only estimate the maximal contribution of gut in 4 animals, in two of which it was <15%. CONCLUSIONS: The role of the gut in HIV is a controversial area, with many suggesting that it plays a dominant role in driving early infection. Our analysis suggests that, at least by day 28 post-infection, the gut is not contributing greatly to the plasma viral load.

The dynamics of naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Severe malaria occurs predominantly in young children and immunity to clinical disease is associated with cumulative exposure in holoendemic settings. The relative contribution of immunity against various stages of the parasite life cycle that results in controlling infection and limiting disease is not well understood. Here we analyse the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection after treatment in a cohort of 197 healthy study participants of different ages in order to model naturally acquired immunity. We find that both delayed time-to-infection and reductions in asymptomatic parasitaemias in older age groups can be explained by immunity that reduces the growth of blood stage as opposed to liver stage parasites. We found that this mechanism would require at least two components - a rapidly acting strain-specific component, as well as a slowly acquired cross-reactive or general immunity to all strains. Analysis and modelling of malaria infection dynamics and naturally acquired immunity with age provides important insights into what mechanisms of immune control may be harnessed by malaria vaccine strategists.

Does cytolysis by CD8+ T cells drive immune escape in HIV infection?

CD8(+) "cytotoxic" T cells are important for the immune control of HIV and the closely related simian models SIV and chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV), although the mechanisms of this control are unclear. One effect of CD8(+) T cell-mediated recognition of virus-infected cells is the rapid selection of escape mutant (EM) virus that is not recognized. To investigate the mechanisms of virus-specific CD8(+) T cell control during immune escape in vivo, we used a real-time PCR assay to study the dynamics of immune escape in early SHIV infection of pigtail macaques. For immune escape mediated by cytolysis, we would expect that the death rate of wild type (WT) infected cells should be faster than that of EM-infected cells. In addition, escape should be fastest during periods when the total viral load is declining. However, we find that there is no significant difference in the rate of decay of WT virus compared with EM virus. Further, immune escape is often fastest during periods of viral growth, rather than viral decline. These dynamics are consistent with an epitope-specific, MHC class I-restricted, noncytolytic mechanism of CD8(+) T cell control of SHIV that specifically inhibits the growth of WT virus in vivo.

Complexity of the inoculum determines the rate of reversion of SIV Gag CD8 T cell mutant virus and outcome of infection.

Escape mutant (EM) virus that evades CD8+ T cell recognition is frequently observed following infection with HIV-1 or SIV. This EM virus is often less replicatively "fit" compared to wild-type (WT) virus, as demonstrated by reversion to WT upon transmission of HIV to a naïve host and the association of EM virus with lower viral load in vivo in HIV-1 infection. The rate and timing of reversion is, however, highly variable. We quantified reversion to WT of a series of SIV and SHIV viruses containing minor amounts of WT virus in pigtail macaques using a sensitive PCR assay. Infection with mixes of EM and WT virus containing > or =10% WT virus results in immediate and rapid outgrowth of WT virus at SIV Gag CD8 T cell epitopes within 7 days of infection of pigtail macaques with SHIV or SIV. In contrast, infection with biologically passaged SHIV(mn229) viruses with much smaller proportions of WT sequence, or a molecular clone of pure EM SIV(mac239), demonstrated a delayed or slow pattern of reversion. WT virus was not detectable until > or =8 days after inoculation and took > or =8 weeks to become the dominant quasispecies. A delayed pattern of reversion was associated with significantly lower viral loads. The diversity of the infecting inoculum determines the timing of reversion to WT virus, which in turn predicts the outcome of infection. The delay in reversion of fitness-reducing CD8 T cell escape mutations in some scenarios suggests opportunities to reduce the pathogenicity of HIV during very early infection.

Limited CD4+ T cell proliferation leads to preservation of CD4+ T cell counts in SIV-infected sooty mangabeys.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infections result in chronic virus replication and progressive depletion of CD4+ T cells, leading to immunodeficiency and death. In contrast, 'natural hosts' of SIV experience persistent infection with high virus replication but no severe CD4+ T cell depletion, and remain AIDS-free. One important difference between pathogenic and non-pathogenic infections is the level of activation and proliferation of CD4+ T cells. We analysed the relationship between CD4+ T cell number and proliferation in HIV, pathogenic SIV in macaques, and non-pathogenic SIV in sooty mangabeys (SMs) and mandrills. We found that CD4+ T cell proliferation was negatively correlated with CD4+ T cell number, suggesting that animals respond to the loss of CD4+ T cells by increasing the proliferation of remaining cells. However, the level of proliferation seen in pathogenic infections (SIV in rhesus macaques and HIV) was much greater than in non-pathogenic infections (SMs and mandrills). We then used a modelling approach to understand how the host proliferative response to CD4+ T cell depletion may impact the outcome of infection. This modelling demonstrates that the rapid proliferation of CD4+ T cells in humans and macaques associated with low CD4+ T cell levels can act to 'fuel the fire' of infection by providing more proliferating cells for infection. Natural host species, on the other hand, have limited proliferation of CD4+ T cells at low CD4+ T cell levels, which allows them to restrict the number of proliferating cells susceptible to infection.

Is the gut the major source of virus in early simian immunodeficiency virus infection?

The acute phases of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection are characterized by rapid and profound depletion of CD4+ T cells from the guts of infected individuals. The large number of CD4+ T cells in the gut (a large fraction of which are activated and express the HIV/SIV coreceptor CCR5), the high level of infection of these cells, and the temporal coincidence of this CD4+ T-cell depletion with the peak of virus in plasma in acute infection suggest that the intestinal mucosa may be the major source of virus driving the peak viral load. Here, we used data on CD4+ T-cell proportions in the lamina propria of the rectums of SIV-infected rhesus macaques (which progress to AIDS) and sooty mangabeys (which do not progress) to show that in both species, the depletion of CD4+ T cells from this mucosal site and its maximum loss rate are often observed several days before the peak in viral load, with few CD4+ T cells remaining in the rectum by the time of peak viral load. In contrast, the maximum loss rate of CD4+ T cells from bronchoalveolar lavage specimens and lymph nodes coincides with the peak in virus. Analysis of the kinetics of depletion suggests that, in both rhesus macaques and sooty mangabeys, CD4+ T cells in the intestinal mucosa are a highly susceptible population for infection but not a major source of plasma virus in acute SIV infection.

Vaccination and timing influence SIV immune escape viral dynamics in vivo.

CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) can be effective at controlling HIV-1 in humans and SIV in macaques, but their utility is partly offset by mutational escape. The kinetics of CTL escape and reversion of escape mutant viruses upon transmission to MHC-mismatched hosts can help us understand CTL-mediated viral control and the fitness cost extracted by immune escape mutation. Traditional methods for following CTL escape and reversion are, however, insensitive to minor viral quasispecies. We developed sensitive quantitative real-time PCR assays to track the viral load of SIV Gag164-172 KP9 wild-type (WT) and escape mutant (EM) variants in pigtail macaques. Rapid outgrowth of EM virus occurs during the first few weeks of infection. However, the rate of escape plateaued soon after, revealing a prolonged persistence of WT viremia not detectable by standard cloning and sequencing methods. The rate of escape of KP9 correlated with levels of vaccine-primed KP9-specific CD8+ T cells present at that time. Similarly, when non-KP9 responder (lacking the restricting Mane-A*10 allele) macaques were infected with SHIVmn229 stock containing a mixture of EM and WT virus, rapid reversion to WT was observed over the first 2 weeks following infection. However, the rate of reversion to WT slowed dramatically over the first month of infection. The serial quantitation of escape mutant viruses evolving during SIV infection shows that rapid dynamics of immune escape and reversion can be observed in early infection, particularly when CD8 T cells are primed by vaccination. However, these early rapid rates of escape and reversion are transient and followed by a significant slowing in these rates later during infection, highlighting that the rate of escape is significantly influenced by the timing of its occurrence.

Rates of HIV immune escape and reversion: implications for vaccination.

HIV-1 mutates extensively in vivo to escape immune control by CD8+ T cells (CTLs). The CTL escape mutant virus might also revert back to wild-type upon transmission to new hosts if significant fitness costs are incurred by the mutation. Immune escape and reversion can be extremely fast if they occur very early after infection, whereas they are much slower when they begin later during infection. Immune escape presents a significant barrier to vaccination, because escape of vaccine-mediated immune responses could neutralise any benefits of vaccination. Here, we consider the dynamics of immune escape and reversion in vivo in natural infection, and suggest how understanding of this can be used to predict optimal vaccine targets and design vaccination strategies that maximise immune control. We predict that inducing synchronous, broad CTL by vaccination should limit the likelihood of viral escape from immune control.

CD4+ target cell availability determines the dynamics of immune escape and reversion in vivo.

Infections with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the closely related monkey viruses simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) are characterized by progressive waves of immune responses, followed by viral mutation and "immune escape." However, escape mutation usually leads to lower replicative fitness, and in the absence of immune pressure, an escape mutant (EM) virus "reverts" to the wild-type phenotype. Analysis of the dynamics of immune escape and reversion has suggested it is a mechanism for identifying the immunogens best capable of controlling viremia. We have analyzed and modeled data of the dynamics of wild-type (WT) and EM viruses during SHIV infection of macaques. Modeling suggests that the dynamics of reversion and immune escape should be determined by the availability of target cells for infection. Consistent with this suggestion, we find that the rate of reversion of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) EM virus strongly correlates with the number of CD4(+) T cells available for infection. This phenomenon also affects the rate of immune escape, since this rate is determined by the balance of CTL killing and the WT fitness advantage. This analysis predicts that the optimal timing for the selection of immune escape variants will be immediately after the peak of viremia and that the development of escape variants at later times will lead to slower selection. This has important implications for comparative studies of immune escape and reversion in different infections and for identifying epitopes with high fitness cost for use as vaccine targets.