Associations of Biomarker-Calibrated Healthy Eating Index-2010 Scores with Chronic Disease Risk and Their Dependency on Energy Intake and Body Mass Index in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies examined associations between the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and chronic disease risk based on self-reported diet without measurement error correction. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to test associations between biomarker calibration of the food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ)-derived HEI-2010 with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) among Women's Health Initiative (WHI) participants. METHODS: Data were derived from WHI postmenopausal women (n = 100,374) aged 50-79 y at enrollment (1993-1998) at 40 US clinical centers, linked to nutritional biomarker substudies and outcomes over subsequent decades of follow-up. Baseline or year 1 FFQ-derived HEI-2010 scores were calibrated with nutritional biomarkers and participant characteristics (e.g., BMI) for systematic measurement error correction. Calibrated data were then used in HR models examining associations with incidence of CVD (total, subtypes, mortality), cancer (total, subtypes, mortality), and T2D in WHI participants with approximately 2 decades of follow-up. Models were multivariable-adjusted with further adjustment for BMI and doubly labeled water (DLW)-calibrated energy. RESULTS: Multivariable-adjusted HRs modeled a 20% increment in HEI-2010 score in relation to outcomes. HRs were modest using uncalibrated HEI-2010 scores (HRs = 0.91-1.09). Using biomarker-calibrated HEI-2010, 20% increments in scores yielded multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of 0.75 (0.60, 0.93) for coronary heart disease; 0.75 (0.61, 0.91) for myocardial infarction; 0.96 (0.92, 1.01) for stroke; 0.88 (0.75, 1.02) for CVD mortality; 0.81 (0.70, 0.94) for colorectal cancer; 0.81 (0.74, 0.88) for breast cancer; 0.79 (0.73, 0.87) for cancer mortality; and 0.45 (0.36-0.55) for T2D. Except for cancer mortality and T2D incidence, results became null when adjusted for DLW-calibrated energy intake and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarker calibration of FFQ-derived HEI-2010 was associated with lower CVD and cancer incidence and mortality and lower T2D incidence in postmenopausal women. Attenuation after adjustment with BMI and DLW-calibrated energy suggests that energy intake and/or obesity are strong drivers of diet-related chronic disease risk in postmenopausal women. The Women's Health Initiative is registered at clinicaltrials.gov at NCT00000611.

Metabolomics-Based Biomarker for Dietary Fat and Associations with Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized, controlled Dietary Modification (DM) trial of a low-fat dietary pattern suggested intervention benefits related to breast cancer, coronary heart disease (CHD), and diabetes. Here, we use WHI observational data for further insight into the chronic disease implications of adopting this type of low-fat dietary pattern. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to use our earlier work on metabolomics-based biomarkers of carbohydrate and protein to develop a fat intake biomarker by subtraction, to use the resulting biomarker to develop calibration equations that adjusts self-reported fat intake for measurement error, and to study associations of biomarker-calibrated fat intake with chronic disease risk in WHI cohorts. Corresponding studies for specific fatty acids will follow separately. METHODS: Prospective disease association results are presented using WHI cohorts of postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 y when enrolled at 40 United States clinical centers. Biomarker equations were developed using an embedded human feeding study (n = 153). Calibration equations were developed using a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436). Calibrated intakes were associated with cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes incidence in WHI cohorts (n = 81,954) over an approximate 20-y follow-up period. RESULTS: A biomarker for fat density was developed by subtracting protein, carbohydrate, and alcohol densities from one. A calibration equation was developed for fat density. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for 20% higher fat density were 1.16 (1.06, 1.27) for breast cancer, 1.13 (1.02, 1.26) for CHD, and 1.19 (1.13, 1.26) for diabetes, in substantial agreement with findings from the DM trial. With control for additional dietary variables, especially fiber, fat density was no longer associated with CHD, with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.00 (0.88, 1.13), whereas that for breast cancer was 1.11 (1.00, 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: WHI observational data support prior DM trial findings of low-fat dietary pattern benefits in this population of postmenopausal United States women. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00000611.

Metabolomics Biomarkers for Fatty Acid Intake and Biomarker-Calibrated Fatty Acid Associations with Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: A substantial observational literature relating specific fatty acid classes to chronic disease risk may be limited by its reliance on self-reported dietary data. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop biomarkers for saturated (SFA), monounsaturated (MUFA), and polyunsaturated (PUFA) fatty acid densities, and to study their associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Women's Health Initiative (WHI) cohorts. METHODS: Biomarker equations were based primarily on serum and urine metabolomics profiles from an embedded WHI human feeding study (n = 153). Calibration equations were based on biomarker values in a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436). Calibrated intakes were assessed in relation to disease incidence in larger WHI cohorts (n = 81,894). Participants were postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 when enrolled at 40 United States Clinical Centers (1993-1998), with a follow-up period of ∼20 y. RESULTS: Biomarker equations meeting criteria were developed for SFA, MUFA, and PUFA densities. That for SFA density depended somewhat weakly on metabolite profiles. On the basis of our metabolomics platforms, biomarkers were insensitive to trans fatty acid intake. Calibration equations meeting criteria were developed for SFA and PUFA density, but not for MUFA density. With or without biomarker calibration, SFA density was associated positively with risk of CVD, cancer, and T2D, but with small hazard ratios, and CVD associations were not statistically significant after controlling for other dietary variables, including trans fatty acid and fiber intake. Following this same control, PUFA density was not significantly associated with CVD risk, but there were positive associations for some cancers and T2D, with or without biomarker calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Higher SFA and PUFA diets were associated with null or somewhat higher risk for clinical outcomes considered in this population of postmenopausal United States women. Further research is needed to develop even stronger biomarkers for these fatty acid densities and their major components. This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00000611.

Four-Day Food Record Macronutrient Intake, With and Without Biomarker Calibration, and Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

We recently evaluated associations of biomarker-calibrated protein intake, protein density, carbohydrate intake, and carbohydrate density with the incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes among postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative (1993-present, 40 US clinical centers). The biomarkers relied on serum and urine metabolomics profiles, and biomarker calibration used regression of biomarkers on food frequency questionnaires. Here we develop corresponding calibration equations using food records and dietary recalls. In addition, we use calibrated intakes based on food records in disease association estimation in a cohort subset (n = 29,294) having food records. In this analysis, more biomarker variation was explained by food records than by FFQs for absolute macronutrient intake, with 24-hour recalls being intermediate. However, the percentage of biomarker variation explained was similar for each assessment approach for macronutrient densities. Invasive breast cancer risk was related inversely to carbohydrate and protein densities using food records, in analyses that included (calibrated) total energy intake and body mass index. Corresponding analyses for absolute intakes did not differ from the null, nor did absolute or relative intakes associate significantly with colorectal cancer or coronary heart disease. These analyses do not suggest major advantages for food records or dietary recalls in comparison with less costly and logistically simpler food frequency questionnaires for these nutritional variables.

Association of Premature Menopause With Risk of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if premature menopause and early menarche are associated with increased risk of AAA, and to explore potential effect modification by smoking history. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Despite worse outcomes for women with AAA, no studies have prospectively examined sex-specific risk factors, such as premature menopause and early menarche, with risk of AAA in a large, ethnically diverse cohort of women. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of Women's Health Initiative participants who were beneficiaries of Medicare Parts A&B fee-for-service. AAA cases and interventions were identified from claims data. Follow-up period included Medicare coverage until death, end of follow-up or end of coverage inclusive of 2017. RESULTS: Of 101,119 participants included in the analysis, the mean age was 63 years and median follow-up was 11.3 years. Just under 10,000 (9.4%) women experienced premature menopause and 22,240 (22%) experienced early men-arche. Women with premature menopause were more likely to be overweight, Black, have >20 pack years of smoking, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and early menarche. During 1,091,840 person-years of follow-up, 1125 women were diagnosed with AAA, 134 had premature menopause (11.9%), 93 underwent surgical intervention and 45 (48%) required intervention for ruptured AAA. Premature menopause was associated with increased risk of AAA [hazard ratio 1.37 (1.14, 1.66)], but the association was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment for demographics and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Amongst women with ≥20 pack year smoking history (n = 19,286), 2148 (11.1%) had premature menopause, which was associated with greater risk of AAA in all models [hazard ratio 1.63 (1.24, 2.23)]. Early menarche was not associated with increased risk of AAA. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that premature menopause may be an important risk factor for AAA in women with significant smoking history. There was no significant association between premature menopause and risk of AAA amongst women who have never smoked. These results suggest an opportunity to develop strategies for better screening, risk reduction and stratification, and outcome improvement in the comprehensive vascular care of women.

Biomarkers for Components of Dietary Protein and Carbohydrate with Application to Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: We recently developed protein and carbohydrate intake biomarkers using metabolomics profiles in serum and urine, and used them to correct self-reported dietary data for measurement error. Biomarker-calibrated carbohydrate density was inversely associated with chronic disease risk, whereas protein density associations were mixed. OBJECTIVES: To elucidate and extend this earlier work through biomarker development for protein and carbohydrate components, including animal protein and fiber. METHODS: Prospective disease association analyses were undertaken in Women's Health Initiative (WHI) cohorts of postmenopausal US women, aged 50-79 y when enrolled at 40 US clinical centers. Biomarkers were developed using an embedded human feeding study (n = 153). Calibration equations for protein and carbohydrate components were developed using a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436). Calibrated intakes were associated with chronic disease incidence in WHI cohorts (n = 81,954) over a 20-y (median) follow-up period, using HR regression methods. RESULTS: Previously reported elevations in cardiovascular disease (CVD) with higher-protein diets tended to be explained by animal protein density. For example, for coronary heart disease a 20% increment in animal protein density had an HR of 1.20 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.42) relative to the HR for total protein density. In comparison, cancer and diabetes risk showed little association with animal protein density beyond that attributable to total protein density. Inverse carbohydrate density associations with total CVD were mostly attributable to fiber density, with a 20% increment HR factor of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83, 0.94). Cancer risk showed little association with fiber density, whereas diabetes risk had a 20% increment HR of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.98) relative to the HRs for total carbohydrate density. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of postmenopausal US women, CVD risk was associated with high-animal-protein and low-fiber diets, cancer risk was associated with low-carbohydrate diets, and diabetes risk was associated with low-fiber/low-carbohydrate diets.

Biomarker-Calibrated Red and Combined Red and Processed Meat Intakes with Chronic Disease Risk in a Cohort of Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: The associations of red and processed meat with chronic disease risk remain to be clarified, in part because of measurement error in self-reported diet. OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop metabolomics-based biomarkers for red and processed meat, and to evaluate associations of biomarker-calibrated meat intake with chronic disease risk among postmenopausal women. METHODS: Study participants were women who were members of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study cohorts. These participants were postmenopausal women aged 50-79 y when enrolled during 1993-1998 at 40 US clinical centers with embedded human feeding and nutrition biomarker studies. Literature reports of metabolomics correlates of meat consumption were used to develop meat intake biomarkers from serum and 24-h urine metabolites in a 153-participant feeding study (2010-2014). Resulting biomarkers were used in a 450-participant biomarker study (2007-2009) to develop linear regression calibration equations that adjust FFQ intakes for random and systematic measurement error. Biomarker-calibrated meat intakes were associated with cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes incidence among 81,954 WHI participants (1993-2020). RESULTS: Biomarkers and calibration equations meeting prespecified criteria were developed for consumption of red meat and red plus processed meat combined, but not for processed meat consumption. Following control for nondietary confounding factors, hazard ratios were calculated for a 40% increment above the red meat median intake for coronary artery disease (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.14), heart failure (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.33), breast cancer (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.13) for, total invasive cancer (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.09), and diabetes (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.34, 1.39). HRs for red plus processed meat intake were similar. HRs were close to the null, and mostly nonsignificant following additional control for dietary potential confounding factors, including calibrated total energy consumption. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively high-meat dietary pattern is associated with somewhat higher chronic disease risks. These elevations appear to be largely attributable to the dietary pattern, rather than to consumption of red or processed meat per se.

Novel Application of Nutritional Biomarkers From a Controlled Feeding Study and an Observational Study to Characterization of Dietary Patterns in Postmenopausal Women.

Dietary guidance emphasizes healthy dietary patterns, but supporting evidence comes from self-reported dietary data, which are prone to measurement error. We explored whether nutritional biomarkers from the Women's Health Initiative Nutrition and Physical Activity Assessment Study Feeding Study (NPAAS-FS) (n = 153; 2010-2014) and the Women's Health Initiative Nutrition and Physical Activity Assessment Study Observational Study (NPAAS-OS) (n = 450; 2006-2009) could identify biomarker signatures of dietary patterns for development of corresponding regression calibration equations to help mitigate measurement error. Fasting blood samples were assayed for a specific panel of vitamins, carotenoids, and phospholipid fatty acids; 24-hour urine samples were assayed for nitrogen, sodium, and potassium levels. Intake records from the NPAAS-FS were used to calculate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (HEI-2010), Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010), alternative Mediterranean diet (aMED), and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) scores. Scores were regressed on blood and urine nutritional measures for discovery of dietary pattern biomarkers using a cross-validated model R2 ≥ 36% criterion (stage 1). Next, stepwise models (P ≤ 0.10 for entry/removal) using NPAAS-OS data were used to regress stage 1 dietary pattern biomarkers on NPAAS-OS self-reported dietary pattern scores using a food frequency questionnaire, a 4-day food record, and a 24-hour recall (stage 2). HEI-2010 and aMED analyses met the cross-validated R2 ≥ 36% criterion in stage 1, while AHEI-2010 and DASH analyses did not. The R2 values for HEI-2010 stage 2 calibration equations were as follows: food frequency questionnaire, 63.5%; 4-day food record, 83.1%; and 24-hour recall, 77.8%. Stage 2 aMED R2 values were 34.9%-46.8%. Dietary pattern biomarkers have potential for calibrating self-reports to enhance studies of diet-disease associations.

Lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies have prospectively examined the associations of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels with the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), especially in women. Accounting for commonly recognized risk factors, we investigated the baseline Lp(a) levels and the risk of AAA among postmenopausal women participating in the ongoing national Women's Health Initiative. METHODS: Women's Health Initiative participants with baseline Lp(a) levels available who were beneficiaries of Medicare parts A and B fee-for-service at study enrollment or who had aged into Medicare at any point were included. Participants with missing covariate data or known AAA at baseline were excluded. Thoracic aneurysms were excluded owing to the different pathophysiology. The AAA cases and interventions were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th revision, codes and Current Procedural Terminology codes from claims data. Hazard ratios were computed using Cox proportional hazard models according to the quintiles of Lp(a). RESULTS: The mean age of the 6615 participants included in the analysis was 65.3 years. Of the 6615 participants, 66.6% were non-Hispanic white, 18.9% were black, 7% were Hispanic and 4.7% were Asian/Pacific Islander. Compared with the participants in the lowest Lp(a) quintile, those in higher quintiles were more likely to be overweight, black, and former or current smokers, to have hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and a history of cardiovascular disease, and to use menopausal hormone therapy and statins. During 65,476 person-years of follow-up, with a median of 10.4 years, 415 women had been diagnosed with an AAA and 36 had required intervention. More than one half had required intervention for a ruptured AAA. We failed to find a statistically significant association between Lp(a) levels and incident AAA. Additional sensitivity analyses stratified by race, with exclusion of statin users and alternative categorizations of Lp(a) using log-transformed levels, tertiles, and a cutoff of >50 mg/dL, were conducted, which did not reveal any significant associations. CONCLUSIONS: We found no statistically significant association between Lp(a) levels and the risk of AAA in a large and well-phenotyped sample of postmenopausal women. Women with high Lp(a) levels were more likely to be overweight, black, and former or current smokers, and to have hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and a history of cardiovascular disease, or to use hormone therapy and statins compared with those with lower Lp(a) levels. These findings differ from previous prospective, case-control, and meta-analysis studies that had supported a significant relationship between higher Lp(a) levels and an increased risk of AAA. Differences in the association could have resulted from study limitations or sex differences.

Biomarker-Calibrated Macronutrient Intake and Chronic Disease Risk among Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about macronutrient intake and chronic disease risk has been limited by the absence of objective macronutrient measures. Recently, we proposed novel biomarkers for protein, protein density, carbohydrate, and carbohydrate density, using established biomarkers and serum and urine metabolomics profiles in a human feeding study. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to use these biomarkers to develop calibration equations for macronutrient variables using dietary self-reports and personal characteristics and to study the association between biomarker-calibrated intake estimates and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes risk in Women's Health Initiative (WHI) cohorts. METHODS: Prospective disease association analyses are based on WHI cohorts of postmenopausal US women aged 50-79 y when enrolled at 40 US clinical centers (n = 81,954). We used biomarker intake values in a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436) to develop calibration equations for each macronutrient variable, leading to calibrated macronutrient intake estimates throughout WHI cohorts. We then examined the association of these intakes with chronic disease incidence over a 20-y (median) follow-up period using HR regression methods. RESULTS: In analyses that included doubly labeled water-calibrated total energy, HRs for cardiovascular diseases and cancers were mostly unrelated to calibrated protein density. However, many were inversely related to carbohydrate density, with HRs (95% CIs) for a 20% increment in carbohydrate density of 0.81 (0.69, 0.95) and 0.83 (0.74, 0.93), respectively, for primary outcomes of coronary heart disease and breast cancer, as well as 0.74 (0.60, 0.91) and 0.87 (0.81, 0.93) for secondary outcomes of heart failure and total invasive cancer. Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for type 2 diabetes incidence in relation to protein density and carbohydrate density were 1.17 (1.09, 1.75) and 0.73 (0.66, 0.80), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: At specific energy intake, a diet high in carbohydrate density is associated with substantially reduced risk of major chronic diseases in a population of US postmenopausal women. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00000611.

Circulating markers of cellular immune activation in prediagnostic blood sample and lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

Cell-mediated immune suppression may play an important role in lung carcinogenesis. We investigated the associations for circulating levels of tryptophan, kynurenine, kynurenine:tryptophan ratio (KTR), quinolinic acid (QA) and neopterin as markers of immune regulation and inflammation with lung cancer risk in 5,364 smoking-matched case-control pairs from 20 prospective cohorts included in the international Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. All biomarkers were quantified by mass spectrometry-based methods in serum/plasma samples collected on average 6 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for lung cancer associated with individual biomarkers were calculated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for circulating cotinine. Compared to the lowest quintile, the highest quintiles of kynurenine, KTR, QA and neopterin were associated with a 20-30% higher risk, and tryptophan with a 15% lower risk of lung cancer (all ptrend < 0.05). The strongest associations were seen for current smokers, where the adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of lung cancer for the highest quintile of KTR, QA and neopterin were 1.42 (1.15-1.75), 1.42 (1.14-1.76) and 1.45 (1.13-1.86), respectively. A stronger association was also seen for KTR and QA with risk of lung squamous cell carcinoma followed by adenocarcinoma, and for lung cancer diagnosed within the first 2 years after blood draw. This study demonstrated that components of the tryptophan-kynurenine pathway with immunomodulatory effects are associated with risk of lung cancer overall, especially for current smokers. Further research is needed to evaluate the role of these biomarkers in lung carcinogenesis and progression.

Is high vitamin B12 status a cause of lung cancer?

Vitamin B supplementation can have side effects for human health, including cancer risk. We aimed to elucidate the role of vitamin B12 in lung cancer etiology via direct measurements of pre-diagnostic circulating vitamin B12 concentrations in a nested case-control study, complemented with a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach in an independent case-control sample. We used pre-diagnostic biomarker data from 5183 case-control pairs nested within 20 prospective cohorts, and genetic data from 29,266 cases and 56,450 controls. Exposures included directly measured circulating vitamin B12 in pre-diagnostic blood samples from the nested case-control study, and 8 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with vitamin B12 concentrations in the MR study. Our main outcome of interest was increased risk for lung cancer, overall and by histological subtype, per increase in circulating vitamin B12 concentrations. We found circulating vitamin B12 to be positively associated with overall lung cancer risk in a dose response fashion (odds ratio for a doubling in B12 [ORlog2B12 ] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.06-1.25). The MR analysis based on 8 genetic variants also indicated that genetically determined higher vitamin B12 concentrations were positively associated with overall lung cancer risk (OR per 150 pmol/L standard deviation increase in B12 [ORSD ] = 1.08, 95%CI = 1.00-1.16). Considering the consistency of these two independent and complementary analyses, these findings support the hypothesis that high vitamin B12 status increases the risk of lung cancer.

Coffee and Tea Consumption in Relation to Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether tea or coffee consumption is associated with an increased risk of older-onset rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. METHODS: The Women's Health Initiative Observational Study is a longitudinal prospective cohort study conducted from 1993 to 1998. There were 76,853 women who completed a self-administered questionnaire about their daily consumption of tea and coffee. One hundred eighty-five women self-reported and validated incident cases of RA were observed after 3 years of observation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were performed to assess the relationship between consumption habits and disease incidence. Trend tests were calculated using categorical variables modeled as a continuous variable without collapsing. RESULTS: There was no increase in the hazard ratio for incident RA in those participants who drank coffee compared with those who did not. The amount of coffee consumed and the method of preparation (caffeinated/decaffeinated; filtered/unfiltered) also did not alter the risk of incident RA. There was a positive association of incident RA and caffeinated tea consumption in the trend test (p = 0.03). When assessing any caffeinated tea consumption versus no tea consumption, the hazard ratio for incident RA was 1.40 (confidence interval, 1.01-1.93; p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In a large prospective cohort of older women, there was no association between coffee consumption and incident RA. A small association between daily caffeinated, nonherbal tea consumption and incident RA was found.

Impaired functional vitamin B6 status is associated with increased risk of lung cancer.

Circulating vitamin B6 levels have been found to be inversely associated with lung cancer. Most studies have focused on the B6 form pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP), a direct biomarker influenced by inflammation and other factors. Using a functional B6 marker allows further investigation of the potential role of vitamin B6 status in the pathogenesis of lung cancer. We prospectively evaluated the association of the functional marker of vitamin B6 status, the 3-hydroxykynurenine:xanthurenic acid (HK:XA) ratio, with risk of lung cancer in a nested case-control study consisting of 5,364 matched case-control pairs from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). We used conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between HK:XA and lung cancer, and random effect models to combine results from different cohorts and regions. High levels of HK:XA, indicating impaired functional B6 status, were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, the odds ratio comparing the fourth and the first quartiles (OR4thvs.1st ) was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.41). Stratified analyses indicated that this association was primarily driven by cases diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. Notably, the risk associated with HK:XA was approximately 50% higher in groups with a high relative frequency of squamous cell carcinoma, i.e., men, former and current smokers. This risk of squamous cell carcinoma was present in both men and women regardless of smoking status.

Associations of Biomarker-Calibrated Intake of Total Sugars With the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

The inconsistent findings from epidemiologic studies relating total sugars (TS) consumption to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk may be partly due to measurement error in self-reported intake. Using regression calibration equations developed based on the predictive biomarker for TS and recovery biomarker for energy, we examined the association of TS with T2D and CVD risk, before and after dietary calibration, in 82,254 postmenopausal women participating in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. After up to 16 years of follow-up (1993-2010), 6,621 T2D and 5,802 CVD incident cases were identified. The hazard ratio for T2D per 20% increase in calibrated TS was 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 1.15) in multivariable energy substitution, and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.18) in energy partition models. Multivariable hazard ratios for total CVD were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.09) from energy substitution, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.04) from energy partition models. Uncalibrated TS generated a statistically significant inverse association with T2D and total CVD risk in multivariable energy substitution and energy partition models. The lack of conclusive findings from our calibrated analyses may be due to the low explanatory power of the calibration equations for TS, which could have led to incomplete deattenuation of the risk estimates.

Anticholinergic medication use and falls in postmenopausal women: findings from the women's health initiative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Results from studies assessing the association between anticholinergic use and falls are mixed, and prior studies are limited in their ability to control for important potential confounders. Thus, we sought to examine the association between anticholinergic medication use, including over-the-counter medications, and recurrent falls in community-dwelling older women. METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of women aged 65 to 79 years from the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and Clinical Trials. Women were recruited between 1993 and 1998, and analyses included 61,451 women with complete information. Medications with moderate or strong anticholinergic effects were ascertained directly from drug containers during face-to-face interviews. The main outcome measure was recurrent falls (≥2 falls in previous year), which was determined from self-report within 1.5 years subsequent to the medication assessment. RESULTS: At baseline, 11.3 % were using an anticholinergic medication, of which antihistamines (commonly available over-the-counter) were the most common medication class (received by 45.2 % of individuals on anticholinergic medication). Using multivariable GEE models and controlling for potential confounders, the adjusted odds ratio for anticholinergic medication use was 1.51 (95 % CI, 1.43-1.60) for recurrent falls. Participants using multiple anticholinergic medications had a 100 % increase in likelihood of recurrent falls (adjusted odds ratio 2.00, 95 % CI 1.73-2.32). Results were robust to sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Anticholinergic medication use was associated with increased risk for recurrent falls. Our findings reinforce judicious use of anticholinergic medications in older women. Public health efforts should emphasize educating older women regarding the risk of using over-the-counter anticholinergics, such as first-generation antihistamines.

Economic return from the Women's Health Initiative estrogen plus progestin clinical trial: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The findings of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin (E+P) trial led to a substantial reduction in use of combined hormone therapy (cHT) among postmenopausal women in the United States. The economic effect of this shift has not been evaluated relative to the trial's $260 million cost (2012 U.S. dollars). OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic return from the WHI E+P trial. DESIGN: Decision model to simulate health outcomes for a "WHI scenario" with observed cHT use and a "no-WHI scenario" with cHT use extrapolated from the pretrial period. DATA SOURCES: Primary analyses of WHI outcomes, peer-reviewed literature, and government sources. TARGET POPULATION: Postmenopausal women in the United States, aged 50 to 79 years, who did not have a hysterectomy. TIME HORIZON: 2003 to 2012. PERSPECTIVE: Payer. INTERVENTION: Combined hormone therapy. OUTCOME MEASURES: Disease incidence, expenditure, quality-adjusted life-years, and net economic return. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The WHI scenario resulted in 4.3 million fewer cHT users, 126,000 fewer breast cancer cases, 76,000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, 263,000 more fractures, 145,000 more quality-adjusted life-years, and expenditure savings of $35.2 billion. The corresponding net economic return of the trial was $37.1 billion ($140 per dollar invested in the trial) at a willingness-to-pay level of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The 95% CI for the net economic return of the trial was $23.1 to $51.2 billion. LIMITATION: No evaluation of indirect costs or outcomes beyond 2012. CONCLUSION: The WHI E+P trial made high-value use of public funds with a substantial return on investment. These results can contribute to discussions about the role of public funding for large, prospective trials with high potential for public health effects. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Evaluation of Medicare claims data to ascertain peripheral vascular events in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Capturing long-term outcomes from large clinical databases by use of claims data is a potential strategy for improving efficiency while reducing study costs. We sought to compare the use of Medicare data with data from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) to determine peripheral vascular events, as defined by the WHI study design. METHODS: We studied participants from the WHI with both adjudicated outcomes and links to Medicare enrollment and utilization data through 2007. Outcomes of interest included hospitalizations for treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LE PAD), and carotid artery stenosis (CAS). Events determined by WHI adjudication were compared with events defined by coding algorithms using diagnosis and procedure codes from Medicare data with a pilot data set and then validated with a test data set. We assessed agreement by a κ statistic and evaluated reasons for disagreement. RESULTS: In the pilot set, records from 50,511 participants were analyzed. Agreement between the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and WHI for admissions with a diagnosis but no treatment procedures for vascular conditions was poor (κ, 0.02-0.18). On the basis of WHI outcome data collection, vascular treatment procedures occurred in 29 participants for AAA, 204 for LE PAD events, and 281 for CAS. Medicare hospital claims recorded 41 treatments for AAA, 255 for LE PAD, and 317 for CAS. For participants with a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-captured vascular procedure and a record adjudicated by WHI, κ values for treatment procedures were 0.81 for AAA, 0.77 for PAD, and 0.93 for CAS. For vascular procedures identified by WHI but not by Medicare hospital data (n = 82), 55% were captured by Medicare physician claims. Conversely, for treatments identified by Medicare hospital data but not captured by WHI adjudication (n = 57), 74% had physician claims consistent with the procedure. Fifteen participants with AAA or LE PAD procedures in hospital claims had medical records available for review, and nine of these had definitive documentation of procedures that were not captured by the WHI adjudication process. Estimated positive predictive value of Medicare data was 91% to 94% for AAA, 92% to 95% for LE PAD, and 94% to 99% for CAS. Available test set data (n = 50,253) yielded generally similar results with κ of 0.77 for AAA, 0.79 for LE PAD, and 0.94 for CAS. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare data appear useful for identifying vascular treatment procedures for WHI participants. Medicare hospital claims identify more procedures than WHI does, with high positive predictive value, but also may not capture some procedures identified in WHI.

Regression calibration in nutritional epidemiology: example of fat density and total energy in relationship to postmenopausal breast cancer.

Regression calibration using biomarkers provides an attractive approach to strengthening nutritional epidemiology. We consider this approach to assessing the relationship of fat and total energy consumption with postmenopausal breast cancer. In analyses that included fat density data, biomarker-calibrated total energy was positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer incidence in cohorts of the US Women's Health Initiative from 1994-2010. The estimated hazard ratio for a 20% increment in calibrated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) energy was 1.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15, 1.30). This association was not evident without biomarker calibration, and it ceased to be apparent following control for body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), suggesting that the association is mediated by body fat deposition over time. The hazard ratio for a corresponding 40% increment in FFQ fat density was 1.05 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.09). A stronger fat density association, with a hazard ratio of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41), emerged from analyses that used 4-day food records for dietary assessment. FFQ-based analyses were also carried out by using a second dietary assessment in place of the biomarker for calibration. This type of calibration did not correct for systematic bias in energy assessment, but may be able to accommodate the "noise" component of dietary measurement error. Implications for epidemiologic applications more generally are described.

Demographic and health factors associated with enrollment in posttrial studies: the Women's Health Initiative Hormone Therapy Trials.

BACKGROUND: After clinical trials end, continued follow-up of the assembled cohort often is desirable for additional research. Factors influencing participants' decisions to consent to additional follow-up and how these shape posttrial cohorts have not been broadly studied. PURPOSE: We examined how two re-enrollment campaigns and the passage of time altered features of the posttrial cohorts compared with the original Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Hormone Therapy clinical trials. METHODS: We examined associations that markers of sociodemography, health, lifestyle, and on-trial experiences had with re-enrollment and contrasted the characteristics of successive posttrial cohorts with those of the original enrollees. RESULTS: The posttrial enrollment campaigns re-enrolled 81.1% and 82.5% of available women, respectively. Women who re-enrolled tended to have better health characteristics than those not re-enrolled. Compared to women of comparable age in the original cohort, women retained for the second posttrial follow-up less often had a history of cardiovascular disease (odds ratio (OR) = 0.36), hypertension (OR = 0.57), diabetes (OR = 0.59), or measured cognitive deficit (OR = 0.40). These women more often had graduated from high school (OR = 1.72) and had participated in other WHI trials (OR = 1.76). LIMITATIONS: We have examined experience with creating follow-up cohorts from participants in a single study. Thus, our findings may not apply to other cohorts and protocols. CONCLUSIONS: Posttrial enrollment in follow-up studies can be successful; however, the characteristics of the resulting cohort may differ substantially from the originally assembled group of trial participants. Collection during the original trial of potential predictors of differential re-enrollment may strengthen interpretation of findings.