Expert opinions on the regulation of plant genome editing.

Global food security is largely affected by factors such as environmental (e.g. drought, flooding), social (e.g. gender inequality), socio-economic (e.g. overpopulation, poverty) and health (e.g. diseases). In response, extensive public and private investment in agricultural research has focused on increasing yields of staple food crops and developing new traits for crop improvement. New breeding techniques pioneered by genome editing have gained substantial traction within the last decade, revolutionizing the plant breeding field. Both industry and academia have been investing and working to optimize the potentials of gene editing and to bring derived crops to market. The spectrum of cutting-edge genome editing tools along with their technical differences has led to a growing international regulatory, ethical and societal divide. This article is a summary of a multi-year survey project exploring how experts view the risks of new breeding techniques, including genome editing and their related regulatory requirements. Surveyed experts opine that emerging biotechnologies offer great promise to address social and climate challenges, yet they admit that the market growth of genome-edited crops will be limited by an ambiguous regulatory environment shaped by societal uncertainty.

Data challenges for future plant gene editing: expert opinion.

Agricultural data in its multiple forms are ubiquitous. With progress in crop and input monitoring systems and price reductions over the past decade, data are now being captured at an unprecedented rate. Once compiled, organized and analyzed, these data are capable of providing valuable insights into much of the agri-food supply chain. While much of the focus is on precision farming, agricultural data applications coupled with gene editing tools hold the potential to enhance crop performance and global food security. Yet, digitization of agriculture is a double-edged sword as it comes with inherent security and privacy quandaries. Infrastructure, policies, and practices to better harness the value of data are still lacking. This article reports expert opinions about the potential challenges regarding the use of data relevant to the development and approval of new crop traits as well as mechanisms employed to manage and protect data. While data could be of great value, issues of intellectual property and accessibility surround many of its forms. The key finding of this research is that surveyed experts optimistically report that by 2030, the synergy of computing power and genome editing could have profound effects on the global agri-food system, but that the European Union may not participate fully in this transformation.

Benefits of genome-edited crops: expert opinion.

Innovation in agriculture is pervasive. However, in spite of the success stories of twentieth century plant breeding, the twenty-first century has ushered in a set of challenges that solutions from the past century are unlikely to address. However, sustained research and the amalgamation of a number of disciplines has resulted in new breeding techniques (NBTs), such as genome editing, which offer the promise of new opportunities to resolve some of the issues. Here we present the results of an expert survey on the added potential benefits of genome-edited crops compared to those developed through genetic modification (GM) and conventional breeding. Overall, survey results reveal a consensus among experts on the enhanced agronomic performance and product quality of genome-edited crops over alternatives. The majority of experts indicated that the regulations for health and safety, followed by export markets, consumers, and the media play a major role in determining where and how NBTs, including genome editing, will be developed and used in agriculture. Further research is needed to gauge expert opinion after the Court of Justice of the European Union ruling establishing that site-specific mutagenic breeding technologies are to be regulated in the same fashion as GM crops, regardless of whether foreign DNA is present in the final variety.

Incomplete coexistence systems and international food trade impacts.

Trade disruptions have been both common and costly for the few GM crops that are produced and marketed. We use a range of adoption studies (compiled by Smyth et al. in Handbook on Agriculture, Biotechnology and Development, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Cheltenham, 2014a), regulatory data and production and trade data to quantify the scale for low level presence incidents. To gain a full perspective on the potential scale of this problem in coming years, we use a combination of recent GM trait commercialization studies and corporate pipeline analysis to identify which traits are planned for which products and the countries in which the technology is likely to be commercialized. Their potential impact will be a result of the intended markets, the regulatory process (especially asynchronous decisions) and the scale and scope of trade in those products. Finally, the article examines the potential for some existing trade and industry institutions to manage the inherent risks of uncertain markets and market impacts.

An economic analysis of private incentives to adopt DNA barcoding technology for fish species authentication in Canada.

The increasing spate of species substitution and mislabelling in fish markets has become a concern to the public and a challenge to both the food industry and regulators. Species substitution and mislabelling within fish supply chains occurs because of price incentives to misrepresent products for economic gain. Emerging authenticity technologies, such as the DNA barcoding technology that has been used to identify plants and animal (particularly fish) species through DNA sequencing, offer a potential technological solution to this information problem. However, the adoption of these authenticity technologies depends also on economic factors. The present study uses economic welfare analysis to examine the effects of species substitution and mislabelling in fish markets, and examines the feasibility of the technology for a typical retail store in Canada. It is assumed that increased accuracy of the technology in detecting fraud and enforcement of legal penalties and other associated costs would be likely to discourage cheating. Empirical results suggest that DNA barcoding technology would be feasible presently for a typical retail store only if authentication is done in a third party laboratory, as it may not be feasible on an individual retail store level once fixed and other associated costs of the technology are considered.

The evolution of plant phenomics: global insights, trends, and collaborations (2000-2021).

Introduction: Phenomics, an interdisciplinary field that investigates the relationships between genomics and environmental factors, has significantly advanced plant breeding by offering comprehensive insights into plant traits from molecular to physiological levels. This study examines the global evolution, geographic distribution, collaborative efforts, and primary research hubs in plant phenomics from 2000 to 2021, using data derived from patents and scientific publications. Methods: The study utilized data from the EspaceNet and Lens databases for patents, and Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus for scientific publications. The final datasets included 651 relevant patents and 7173 peer-reviewed articles. Data were geocoded to assign country-level geographical coordinates and underwent multiple processing and cleaning steps using Python, Excel, R, and ArcGIS. Social network analysis (SNA) was conducted to assess collaboration patterns using Pajek and UCINET. Results: Research activities in plant phenomics have increased significantly, with China emerging as a major player, filing nearly 70% of patents from 2010 to 2021. The U.S. and EU remain significant contributors, accounting for over half of the research output. The study identified around 50 global research hubs, mainly in the U.S. (36%), Western Europe (34%), and China (16%). Collaboration networks have become more complex and interdisciplinary, reflecting a strategic approach to solving research challenges. Discussion: The findings underscore the importance of global collaboration and technological advancement in plant phenomics. China's rise in patent filings highlights its growing influence, while the ongoing contributions from the U.S. and EU demonstrate their continued leadership. The development of complex collaborative networks emphasizes the scientific community's adaptive strategies to address multifaceted research issues. These insights are crucial for researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders aiming to innovate in agricultural practices and improve crop varieties.

An assessment of the linkages between GM crop biotechnology and climate change mitigation.

This article provides an analysis and evaluation of peer-reviewed evidence on the contribution of crop biotechnology to climate change mitigation and adaption. While there is a range of agricultural technologies and products that contribute to climate change mitigation, this literature landscape analysis focuses on the development of genetically modified traits, their use and adoption in major commodity crops and responsive changes in production techniques. Jointly, these technologies and products are contributing to climate change mitigation, yet the technology, the literature and evidence is still evolving as more sophisticated research methods are used with greater consistency. The literature analysis is undertaken with consideration of the consequential impact that regulatory regimes have on technology development. This assessment utilizes the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale and citation analysis, concluding that GM crops provide benefits that contribute to climate change mitigation.

Accelerating adoption of genetically modified crops in Africa through a trade liability regime.

Given the apparently unbridgeable divide that has developed between the 25 odd countries that grow and trade GM crops and the evolving EU regulatory hurdles, it may be time to consider alternative strategies for realizing a global market for agricultural products. Africa is one area of the world where the battle over GM agriculture is being played out, yet it is the continent where GM could have the greatest positive impact. Numerous African nations, given their long-standing trade connections to European nations, fear that allowing the commercialization of GM crops could lead to comingling of GM and conventional products and, hence, the loss of export opportunities to the EU. These are legitimate concerns. One potential solution that warrants serious consideration would be to establish a pool of funds that could be accessed by African agricultural commodity exporters in instances where exports to Europe are rejected. A production levy could be imposed in leading industrial adopting nations (i.e., Australia, Canada and the United States). The revenue raised would provide an endowment fund that could be used to offset the costs arising from import refusals. African-sourced shipments rejected by the EU will most certainly have alternate markets, but could receive a reduced price or incur higher costs associated with serving alternate markets. The intent of the fund would be to compensate for the real difference between the net returns contracted with European importers and the final market price received. This article examines the feasibility of establishing such a fund and discusses the funding options.

Contribution of land use practices to GHGs in the Canadian Prairies crop sector.

The global crop sector is estimated to contribute about 10.4% of global GHGs annually. The Canadian crop sector is assessed as adding about 6.5% to total national emissions. These estimates over report the impact of farming as they ignore the complex interaction of cropping with the environment and the role land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) play in sequestering carbon. This study quantifies the contribution of land use to GHG emissions and removals in the Canadian Prairies crop sector between 1985 and 2016. The modeling effort explores how different farming practices (i.e., conventional tillage (CT), minimum tillage (MT), zero tillage (ZT), summerfallow, crop rotations, and residue retention) and input usage rates (i.e., fertilizer and fuel) affect GHG emissions in different soil climate zones and provinces in the Prairies region. The adoption of sustainable practices led to an 80% decline in GHG emissions in the crop sector between 1985 and 2016. Since 2005, the baseline for Canada's Paris commitment, sectoral emissions dropped 53%, more than is required to meet the 2030 target. Most promising, the crop sector was a net GHG sink between 2013 and 2016 in Alberta and between 2006 and 2016 in Saskatchewan. As positive as these developments have been, more can be done by directing research to identify options for reducing GHGs in Manitoba (which made only minimal improvements as farmers there faced conditions requiring continuous use of conventional tillage practices), to explore better nitrogen management (a major continuing source of GHG from cropping) and by searching for low carbon transport options.

Evidence-based policy making: determining what is evidence.

In the era of evidence-based policy, framing and assessing the core evidence is fundamental to our ability to use research in support of public policy. In a world of almost exponentially expanding scholarly publication, it is becoming harder to define what is known. This article reviews the basic theories of knowledge, the context for sorting through and summarizing that knowledge and a number of options available, and used, to assemble the knowledge base for research and policy work. The authors undertook a summative process in the domain of biotechnology, agriculture and development and offer insights into the comparative methods and their impacts on the outcome. A population sample of 421 articles was gathered. Four methods-expert Delphi, citation analysis, social network analysis and peer evaluation-were used to select the 51 pieces for inclusion and analysis in the core literature. That analysis shows that each process delivered a different set of evidence. The potential for bias in knowledge assessment can challenge policy makers in their process of reviewing evidence that rationalizes policy.

Driving Adoption and Commercialization of Subunit Vaccines for Bovine Tuberculosis and Johne's Disease: Policy Choices and Implications for Food Security.

Infectious animal diseases, such as Johne's disease (JD) caused by Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP) and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis, have been a challenge to the livestock industry globally, impacting negatively on animal, human and environmental health, and overall food security. Despite several industry-led and government initiatives and programs aimed at preventing and reducing losses associated with JD and bTB outbreaks, JD has remained endemic in many parts of the world while there have been incidental outbreaks of bTB. While several studies focus on sustainable intensification of food (crop) production as a critical solution to food insecurity, following the existential interconnection between animals, humans and the environment recognized by one health, we frame food security through the lens of animal disease prevention and control, given the importance of livestock products to human health and livelihood. Vaccination has been a popular strategy successfully used in controlling other infectious diseases. The paper focuses on an alternate strategy of two subunit vaccines with companion diagnostics targeted at individual pathogens to attain satisfactory immunological responses for JD and bTB. We examine gaps in vaccine policies, commercialization, and potential strategies that would strengthen animal disease prevention and enhance food security. The potential of public-private partnership in strengthening private sector participation in effective animal disease control and health delivery and the implications for global food security are discussed.

How should we regulate products of new breeding techniques? Opinion of surveyed experts in plant biotechnology.

The adoption of genome editing depends among others, on a clear and navigable regulatory framework that renders consistent decisions. Some countries like the United States decided to deregulate specific transgene-free genome edited products that could be created through traditional breeding and are not considered to be plant pests, while others are still challenged to fit emerging technologies in their regulatory system. Here we poll international experts in plant biotechnology on what approach should nations agree upon to accommodate current and future new breeding technologies and derived products. A key finding is product-based models or dual-product/process systems are viewed as potential appropriate frameworks to regulate outcomes of genome editing. As regulation of novel products of biotechnology is expected to impact research and trade, we test the impact of experts' worldviews on these issues. Results show that region influences worldviews of trade but not of agricultural innovation. In contrast, there was no effect of experts' worldviews on how products of novel biotechnologies should be regulated.

Estimating the cost of regulating genome edited crops: expert judgment and overconfidence.

Experts are often called on to inform decision makers with subjective estimates of uncertain events. Their judgment serves as the basis for policy-related decision-making. This paper analyzes survey results used to collect experts' opinions of the likely cost to bring genome edited crops to market. We also examine the effect of expertise (scientific experts versus social scientists in plant biotechnology) and possible knowledge mis-calibration, both in terms of overconfidence (i.e., when subjective knowledge is inflated) and under-confidence (i.e., when subjective knowledge is deflated), on the estimation of cost involved in the development and commercial release of genome edited crops. We found that the expected costs of genome edited crops are case specific and depend on whether crops will likely be regulated as genetically modified or accepted as conventional varieties and not subject to any regulatory oversight by federal regulators. While cost evaluation of genome edited crops did not vary among scientific and social experts, it did vary among domains of knowledge. Hence, expert's performance can be described as task-specific in the context of this study.

Regulatory Uncertainty Around New Breeding Techniques.

Emerging precision breeding techniques have great potential to develop new crop varieties with specific traits that can contribute to ensuring future food security in a time of increasing climate change pressures, such as disease, insects and drought. These techniques offer options for crop trait development in both private and public sector breeding programs. Yet, the success of new breeding techniques is not guaranteed at the scientific level alone: political influences and social acceptance significantly contribute to how crops will perform in the market. Using survey data, we report results from an international panel of experts regarding the institutional and social barriers that might impede the development of new plant technologies. Survey results clearly indicate that regulatory issues, social, and environmental concerns are critical to the success of precision breeding. The cross-regional analysis shows heterogeneity between Europeans and North Americans, particularly regarding political attitudes and social perceptions of targeted breeding techniques.

Genetically Modified Organisms and the Future Global Nutrient Supply: Part of the Solution or a New Problem?

For almost a generation now, scientists and policy makers have enthusiastically advanced genetically modified (GM) crops as a solution to both global food security and, specifically, the micronutrient needs of the hidden hungry. While genetic modification offers the prospect of overcoming technological barriers to food security, the gap between the vision and reality remains large. This chapter examines the impact of GM crops at three levels. Undoubtedly, at the micro level, bio-fortification offers a real opportunity to enhance the availability of micronutrients. However, the inexorable 'research sieve' ruthlessly culls most technical candidates in the agri-food system. GM bio-fortified foods, such as Golden RiceTM, remain only a promise. At the meso level, GM crops have generated benefits for both producers and consumers who have adopted GM crops, but given that the technology has been differentially applied to maize, the average diet for the food insecure has become somewhat less balanced. Finally, while GM crops have increased yields and the global food supply, these have come at the cost of more complex and costly trade and market systems, which impair access and availability. In essence, while biotechnology offers some tantalizing technological prospects, the difficulties of getting the corresponding benefits to the most needy have dampened some of the enthusiasm.

EU Failing FAO Challenge to Improve Global Food Security.

The announcement that the European Union (EU) had reached an agreement allowing Member States (MS) to ban genetically modified (GM) crops confirms that the EU has chosen to ignore the food security challenge issued to the world by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2009. The FAO suggests that agricultural biotechnology has a central role in meeting the food security challenge.

Biotechnology in the global agri-food system.

The advent of biotechnology presents fundamental challenges to the global agri-food industry. While the scientific base for agri-food production is being revolutionised, it is not clear if or how the technology will be used. Proponents of biotechnology and a large portion of agri-food policy makers around the world project a positive future in which technology overcomes food shortages, improves the environment, heals or eliminates disease and leads to a prosperous and healthy society. A smaller but significant array of policy makers, citizens and consumers fear that the technology will exacerbate food insecurity, threaten the environment, endanger human health and ultimately impoverish society itself. Although scientists and industry are convinced the fears are unfounded, it is not clear that our social institutions will be able to adapt, adopt and use the technology in a way that will satisfy society and improve social welfare.

Labeling to manage marketing of GM foods.

Biotechnology has the potential to introduce new food safety risks, liabilities and benefits, and although privately managed supply chains (involving proactive management of the production of branded products) are effective at providing, managing and communicating adequate information about products with well understood risks, products with uncertain risks pose a greater challenge. The demand for increased product information regarding genetically modified content, in particular, places new constraints on food supply chains, frequently resulting in communication failures. Here we assess and reject mandatory labeling as an appropriate response.