Climate risk to European fisheries and coastal communities.

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterizing the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritizing the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ an approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the United Kingdom have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall, while in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change; climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region, and fleet's specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact.

Quantifying spatio-temporal consistency in the trophic ecology of two sympatric flatfishes.

Sympatric flatfish predators may partition their resources in coastal environments to reduce competition and maximise foraging efficiency. However, the degree of spatial and temporal consistency in their trophic ecology is not well understood because dietary studies tend to overlook the heterogeneity of consumed prey. Increasing the spatial and temporal scale of dietary analyses can thus help to resolve predator resource use. We applied a stomach content and multi-tissue (liver and muscle) stable isotope (δ13 C, δ15 N and δ34 S) approach to investigate the feeding habits of two co-occurring flatfish predators, common dab (Limanda limanda) and European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), across four bays on the Northumberland coast (UK) over short (hours), medium (days) and long (months) temporal scales. Stomach content analyses showed spatial consistencies in predator resource use, whereas stable isotope mixing models revealed considerable inter-bay diet variability. Stomach contents also indicated high dietary overlap between L. limanda and P. platessa, while the stable isotope data yielded low to moderate levels of overlap, with cases of complete niche separation. Furthermore, individual specialisation metrics indicated consistently low levels of specialisation among conspecifics over time. We document changes in resource partitioning in space and time, reflecting diet switching in response to local and temporal fluctuations of patchily distributed prey. This study highlights how trophic tracers integrated at multiple temporal and spatial scales (within tens of kilometres) provide a more integrative approach for assessing the trophic ecology of sympatric predators in dynamic environments.

How quantitative is metabarcoding: A meta-analytical approach.

Metabarcoding has been used in a range of ecological applications such as taxonomic assignment, dietary analysis and the analysis of environmental DNA. However, after a decade of use in these applications there is little consensus on the extent to which proportions of reads generated corresponds to the original proportions of species in a community. To quantify our current understanding, we conducted a structured review and meta-analysis. The analysis suggests that a weak quantitative relationship may exist between the biomass and sequences produced (slope = 0.52 ± 0.34, p < 0.01), albeit with a large degree of uncertainty. None of the tested moderators, sequencing platform type, the number of species used in a trial or the source of DNA, were able to explain the variance. Our current understanding of the factors affecting the quantitative performance of metabarcoding is still limited: additional research is required before metabarcoding can be confidently utilized for quantitative applications. Until then, we advocate the inclusion of mock communities when metabarcoding as this facilitates direct assessment of the quantitative ability of any given study.

Understanding the United Kingdom marine aquarium trade - a mystery shopper study of species on sale.

In this study, we conducted a unique survey of marine ornamental fishes appearing in UK retail stores, as well as a review of government trade statistics, with the aim to significantly strengthen the evidence-base in support of future management initiatives. Fifty marine aquarium retailers were visited. A total of 380 marine aquarium fish species (4926 individuals), from 48 families were recorded with the largest proportion of individuals belonging to the families Pomacentridae, Acanthuridae, Apogonidae, Labridae, Pomacanthidae, Gobiidae and Labridae. The majority of fishes for sale (91% of species) originated from the Indo-Pacific Ocean, with only a small number (9% of species) derived from the Atlantic Ocean. However, exact sources of individual species were unclear and poorly documented. Government trade statistics revealed that the ornamental reef-fish trade in the UK grew markedly between 1996 and 2008 with a rapid acceleration in 2003-2004. However, imports have declined since 2008 and amounted to less than 305,000 kg in 2017 with an economic value of UK £3 million (c. US $3.8). Recent trade data (2017) identify Indonesia, USA, Philippines and the Maldives as the most important countries in terms of imports to the UK. The UK is an important exporter of wild-caught fishes via trans-shipment, but also production of tank-reared animals. Several species observed for sale in the UK have been designated by the IUCN and CITES as being of conservation concern, although all these animals are thought to have been captive-reared.

Where are they all from? - sources and sustainability in the ornamental freshwater fish trade.

The global trade in ornamental fish involves c. 125 countries worldwide and is worth c. US $15-30 billion each year. This total is dominated (90%) by freshwater fishes, most of which are sourced from breeding facilities located in developing countries, typically in Asia or South America, but also in Israel, USA and Europe. Some fish are still obtained from natural (wild) sources, but the exact percentage of wild-caught fish is difficult to quantify given a lack of reliable data. Although c. 1000 species of freshwater fishes are widely available (from a total of > 5300 on sale), the most dominant freshwater fishes in the market comprise only 30 species from the orders Cyprinodontiformes, Perciformes, Characiformes and Siluriformes. In this perspectives review paper, illustrative example case studies of wild-fish collecting (Barcelos and Rio Xingu, Brazil) and breeding projects (Java, Indonesia) are described. In addition, wild-collecting expeditions to West Papua, Indonesia are discussed, focused on discovering novel species of rainbowfish (Melanotaeniidae) for breeding in captivity. Sustainability of the aquarium industry is considered in its broadest sense. The aquarium industry has been portrayed as both a major threat to natural ecosystems, but also as being part of the solution in terms of helping to maintain species when they have gone extinct in the wild or offering an income to impoverished citizens who might otherwise engage in much more destructive practices.

Deep-water fisheries along the British Isles continental slopes: status, ecosystem effects and future perspectives.

In this paper, we revisit the state of deep-water fisheries to the west of the British Isles and aim to provide an overview on the key drivers behind community changes along continental margins. The deep-water fisheries to the west of the British Isles that extend from the shelf-slope break down to the lower slope and along banks and seamounts of the Rockall Basin, mainly target blue ling Molva dypterygia, roundnose grenadier Coryphaenoides rupestris, orange roughy Hoplostethus atlanticus, with by-catches of black scabbardfish Aphanopus carbo and tusk Brosme brosme. These fishing grounds experienced a long period of exhaustive exploitation until the early 2000s, but subsequently the implementation of management strategies has helped to relieve excessive fishing pressure. It is widely accepted that a better understanding of the long-term implications of disturbance is needed to understand patterns in deep-water communities and what sustainable use and exploitation of resources might look like in this context.

Cryptic diets of forage fish: jellyfish consumption observed in the Celtic Sea and western English Channel.

To establish if fishes' consumption of jellyfish changes through the year, we conducted a molecular gut-content assessment on opportunistically sampled species from the Celtic Sea in October and compared these with samples previously collected in February and March from the Irish Sea. Mackerel Scomber scombrus were found to feed on hydrozoan jellyfish relatively frequently in autumn, with rare consumption also detected in sardine Sardina pilchardus and sprat Sprattus sprattus. By October, moon jellyfish Aurelia aurita appeared to have escaped predation, potentially through somatic growth and the development of stinging tentacles. This is in contrast with sampling in February and March where A. aurita ephyrae were heavily preyed upon. No significant change in predation rate was observed in S. sprattus, but jellyfish predation by S. scombrus feeding in autumn was significantly higher than that seen during winter. This increase in consumption appears to be driven by the consumption of different, smaller jellyfish species than were targeted during the winter.

Public awareness, concerns, and priorities about anthropogenic impacts on marine environments.

Numerous international bodies have advocated the development of strategies to achieve the sustainability of marine environments. Typically, such strategies are based on information from expert groups about causes of degradation and policy options to address them, but these strategies rarely take into account assessed information about public awareness, concerns, and priorities. Here we report the results of a pan-European survey of public perceptions about marine environmental impacts as a way to inform the formation of science and policy priorities. On the basis of 10,106 responses to an online survey from people in 10 European nations, spanning a diversity of socioeconomic and geographical areas, we examine the public's informedness and concern regarding marine impacts, trust in different information sources, and priorities for policy and funding. Results show that the level of concern regarding marine impacts is closely associated with the level of informedness and that pollution and overfishing are two areas prioritized by the public for policy development. The level of trust varies greatly among different information sources and is highest for academics and scholarly publications but lower for government or industry scientists. Results suggest that the public perceives the immediacy of marine anthropogenic impacts and is highly concerned about ocean pollution, overfishing, and ocean acidification. Eliciting public awareness, concerns, and priorities can enable scientists and funders to understand how the public relates to marine environments, frame impacts, and align managerial and policy priorities with public demand.

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques.

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input - NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980-2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea-bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad-scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive).

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod.

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3 1/2 decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish.

Marine litter and climate change: Inextricably connected threats to the world's oceans.

The global issues of climate change and marine litter are interlinked and understanding these connections is key to managing their combined risks to marine biodiversity and ultimately society. For example, fossil fuel-based plastics cause direct emissions of greenhouse gases and therefore are an important contributing factor to climate change, while other impacts of plastics can manifest as alterations in key species and habitats in coastal and marine environments. Marine litter is acknowledged as a threat multiplier that acts with other stressors such as climate change to cause far greater damage than if they occurred in isolation. On the other hand, while climate change can lead to increased inputs of litter into the marine environment, the presence of marine litter can also undermine the climate resilience of marine ecosystems. There is increasing evidence that that climate change and marine litter are inextricably linked, although these interactions and the resulting effects vary widely across oceanic regions and depend on the particular characteristics of specific marine environments. Ecosystem resilience approaches, that integrate climate change with other local stressors, offer a suitable framework to incorporate the consideration of marine litter where that is deemed to be a risk, and to steer, coordinate and prioritise research and monitoring, as well as management, policy, planning and action to effectively tackle the combined risks and impacts from climate change and marine litter.

Universal power-law diet partitioning by marine fish and squid with surprising stability-diversity implications.

A central question in community ecology is how the number of trophic links relates to community species richness. For simple dynamical food-web models, link density (the ratio of links to species) is bounded from above as the number of species increases; but empirical data suggest that it increases without bounds. We found a new empirical upper bound on link density in large marine communities with emphasis on fish and squid, using novel methods that avoid known sources of bias in traditional approaches. Bounds are expressed in terms of the diet-partitioning function (DPF): the average number of resources contributing more than a fraction f to a consumer's diet, as a function of f. All observed DPF follow a functional form closely related to a power law, with power-law exponents independent of species richness at the measurement accuracy. Results imply universal upper bounds on link density across the oceans. However, the inherently scale-free nature of power-law diet partitioning suggests that the DPF itself is a better defined characterization of network structure than link density.

Jellyfish on the menu: mtDNA assay reveals scyphozoan predation in the Irish Sea.

Localized outbreaks of jellyfish, known as blooms, cause a variety of adverse ecological and economic effects. However, fundamental aspects of their ecology remain unknown. Notably, there is scant information on the role jellyfish occupy in food webs: in many ecosystems, few or no predators are known. To identify jellyfish consumers in the Irish Sea, we conducted a molecular gut content assessment of 50 potential predators using cnidarian-specific mtDNA primers and sequencing. We show that jellyfish predation may be more common than previously acknowledged: uncovering many previously unknown jellyfish predators. A substantial proportion of herring and whiting were found to have consumed jellyfish. Rare ingestion was also detected in a variety of other species. Given the phenology of jellyfish in the region, we suggest that the predation was probably targeting juvenile stages of the jellyfish life cycle.

Consumer-resource body-size relationships in natural food webs.

It has been suggested that differences in body size between consumer and resource species may have important implications for interaction strengths, population dynamics, and eventually food web structure, function, and evolution. Still, the general distribution of consumer-'resource body-size ratios in real ecosystems, and whether they vary systematically among habitats or broad taxonomic groups, is poorly understood. Using a unique global database on consumer and resource body sizes, we show that the mean body-size ratios of aquatic herbivorous and detritivorous consumers are several orders of magnitude larger than those of carnivorous predators. Carnivorous predator-prey body-size ratios vary across different habitats and predator and prey types (invertebrates, ectotherm, and endotherm vertebrates). Predator-prey body-size ratios are on average significantly higher (1) in freshwater habitats than in marine or terrestrial habitats, (2) for vertebrate than for invertebrate predators, and (3) for invertebrate than for ectotherm vertebrate prey. If recent studies that relate body-size ratios to interaction strengths are general, our results suggest that mean consumer-resource interaction strengths may vary systematically across different habitat categories and consumer types.

SCUBA divers as oceanographic samplers: The potential of dive computers to augment aquatic temperature monitoring.

Monitoring temperature of aquatic waters is of great importance, with modelled, satellite and in-situ data providing invaluable insights into long-term environmental change. However, there is often a lack of depth-resolved temperature measurements. Recreational dive computers routinely record temperature and depth, so could provide an alternate and highly novel source of oceanographic information to fill this data gap. In this study, a citizen science approach was used to obtain over 7,000 scuba diver temperature profiles. The accuracy, offset and lag of temperature records was assessed by comparing dive computers with scientific conductivity-temperature-depth instruments and existing surface temperature data. Our results show that, with processing, dive computers can provide a useful and novel tool with which to augment existing monitoring systems all over the globe, but especially in under-sampled or highly changeable coastal environments.

Historical Arctic Logbooks Provide Insights into Past Diets and Climatic Responses of Cod.

Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930-1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15-45°E longitude and 73-77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond.

Isotope trophic-step fractionation: a dynamic equilibrium model.

Trophic position is a fundamental feature of food-web structure, knowledge of which is being improved by stable isotope approaches which assume a constant enrichment in heavier isotopes in consumers relative to their diet. We argue that the typical enrichment reflects a dynamic equilibrium between fractionation vectors associated with assimilation and excretion. We develop a linear model to characterize the relationship between the equilibrium isotopic signature and the feeding rate influenced by isotopic discrimination during assimilation and excretion. We present new data for both diet switching and starvation experiments using a marine worm Nereis virens and use this, and previously published data for a fish, bird and mammal to calculate controlling parameters from observations of the isotopic signature following diet-switching and the onset of starvation. We show that the observed variance in isotopic signatures at each trophic step carries substantially more information than has been used hitherto and is influenced by feeding rate in addition to the isotopic signature of the food source. Using the linear model as a tool we predict that parasitic organisms may be depleted relative to the tissues of their host.

Insights into fish host-parasite trophic relationships revealed by stable isotope analysis.

Trophic relationships between 10 species of fish host and their associated nematode, cestode, and copepod parasites were investigated using stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen. Nematodes and cestodes were consistently depleted in 15N with respect to their host, and such fractionation patterns are unlike those conventionally observed between consumers and their diets. Species of copepod parasite were sometimes depleted and sometimes enriched in 15N with respect to fish hosts, and this confirms earlier reports that the nature and magnitude of ectoparasite-host fractionations can vary. Significant differences in delta15N and delta13C were observed among fish tissues, and the isotopic signature of parasites did not always closely correspond to that of the tissue with which the parasite was found most closely associated, or on which the parasite was thought to be feeding. Several possible explanations are considered for such discrepancies, including selective feeding on specific amino acids or lipids, migration of the parasite among different fish tissues, changes in the metabolism of the parasite associated with life history and migration between different host animals.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).