Assessing the safety, impact and effectiveness of RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine following its introduction in three sub-Saharan African countries: methodological approaches and study set-up.

BACKGROUND: Following a 30-year development process, RTS,S/AS01E (GSK, Belgium) is the first malaria vaccine to reach Phase IV assessments. The World Health Organization-commissioned Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP) is coordinating the delivery of RTS,S/AS01E through routine national immunization programmes in areas of 3 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The first doses were given in the participating MVIP areas in Malawi on 23 April, Ghana on 30 April, and Kenya on 13 September 2019. The countries participating in the MVIP have little or no baseline incidence data on rare diseases, some of which may be associated with immunization, a deficit that could compromise the interpretation of possible adverse events reported following the introduction of a new vaccine in the paediatric population. Further, effects of vaccination on malaria transmission, existing malaria control strategies, and possible vaccine-mediated selective pressure on Plasmodium falciparum variants, could also impact long-term malaria control. To address this data gap and as part of its post-approval commitments, GSK has developed a post-approval plan comprising of 4 complementary Phase IV studies that will evaluate safety, effectiveness and impact of RTS,S/AS01E through active participant follow-up in the context of its real-life implementation. METHODS: EPI-MAL-002 (NCT02374450) is a pre-implementation safety surveillance study that is establishing the background incidence rates of protocol-defined adverse events of special interest. EPI-MAL-003 (NCT03855995) is an identically designed post-implementation safety and vaccine impact study. EPI-MAL-005 (NCT02251704) is a cross-sectional pre- and post-implementation study to measure malaria transmission intensity and monitor the use of other malaria control interventions in the study areas, and EPI-MAL-010 (EUPAS42948) will evaluate the P. falciparum genetic diversity in the periods before and after vaccine implementation. CONCLUSION: GSK's post-approval plan has been designed to address important knowledge gaps in RTS,S/AS01E vaccine safety, effectiveness and impact. The studies are currently being conducted in the MVIP areas. Their implementation has provided opportunities and posed challenges linked to conducting large studies in regions where healthcare infrastructure is limited. The results from these studies will support ongoing evaluation of RTS,S/AS01E's benefit-risk and inform decision-making for its potential wider implementation across sub-Saharan Africa.

Assessment of the societal cost of Taenia solium in Angónia district, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: The zoonotic parasite Taenia solium is endemic in Angónia district, Tete province, Mozambique, though the burden of the disease complex is unknown. METHODS: As part of two cross-sectional studies on human and porcine cysticercosis in the area, unique epidemiological and cost data were collected in Angónia district, Mozambique in 2007. These data provided the basis for the assessment of the societal cost of T. solium in the district, which estimates the impact of the disease on human and pig populations and includes both health and economic approaches in the analysis. RESULTS: Approximately 0.7% (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI), 0.4-0.9) and 0.4% (95% UI, 0.2-0.6) of the total population in the district was estimated to suffer from neurocysticercosis (NCC)-associated epilepsy and headache. The estimated average number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to NCC-associated epilepsy and headache was 6 (95% UI, 4-8) per thousand persons per year. The total annual costs due to T. solium cysticercosis were estimated at 90,000 USD (95% UI, 39,483-201,463) of which 72% (95% UI, 45-91) were costs linked to human cysticercosis and 28% (95% UI, 9.5-55) to pig production losses. The annual economic burden per NCC-associated epilepsy case in the district amounted to 33 USD (95% UI, 10-76). CONCLUSIONS: In this highly endemic area of Mozambique a large number of individuals suffer from symptoms associated with NCC. Healthy years of life are lost and people are left living with disabilities. Infected pork poses a serious risk to the community and affects the economy of smallholder farmers. Cost for treatment and hospitalization of patients with NCC-associated epilepsy, and lack of productivity and inability of suffering patients to work, further hinder socioeconomic development. Feasible solutions framed within a country specific algorithm and stepwise approaches are needed to control the parasite in the country.

Cognitive impairment and quality of life of people with epilepsy and neurocysticercosis in Zambia.

Cognitive impairment and quality of life (Qol) are important to assess the burden of epilepsy and neurocysticercosis (NCC), which are common but neglected in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The aims of this study were to assess cognitive performance and Qol of people with epilepsy (PWE) in Zambia and to explore differences in PWE with and without NCC. In this community based, cross-sectional case-control-study, 47 PWE and 50 healthy controls completed five neuropsychological tests (Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Digit Span, Selective Reminding Test (SRT), Spatial Recall Test (SPART), Test Battery of Attentional Performance (TAP)) and a World Health Organization (WHO) questionnaire of Qol. Comparisons were made between PWE (n=47) and healthy controls (n=50) and between PWE with NCC (n=28) and without NCC (n=19), respectively, using Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) and Linear Models (LMs) while correcting for confounders such as age, sex, and schooling years, and adjusting for multiplicity. Working memory, spatial memory, verbal memory, verbal learning, orientation, speech and language reception, visuoconstructive ability, and attentional performance were significantly reduced in PWE compared with healthy controls (ANCOVA and LM, p<0.05). Quality of life of PWE was significantly lower in three domains (psychological, social, environmental) and in overall Qol compared with healthy controls (ANCOVA, p<0.05). There were no significant differences between PWE with NCC and PWE without NCC detected by ANCOVA. Using LM, significant differences between the groups were detected in four tests, indicating worse performance of PWE without NCC in MMSE, Digit Span, SPART, and lower physical Qol. Epilepsy was found to be associated with cognitive impairment and reduced Qol. People with epilepsy due to NCC had similar cognitive impairment and Qol compared with PWE due to other causes. Further studies should investigate the role of different conditions of NCC and the role of seizures on cognition and Qol.

Methodology for computing the burden of disease of adverse events following immunization.

PURPOSE: Composite disease burden measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) have been widely used to quantify the population-level health impact of disease or injury, but application has been limited for the estimation of the burden of adverse events following immunization. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of adapting the DALY approach for estimating adverse event burden. METHODS: We developed a practical methodological framework, explicitly describing all steps involved: acquisition of relative or absolute risks and background event incidence rates, selection of disability weights and durations, and computation of the years lived with disability (YLD) measure, with appropriate estimation of uncertainty. We present a worked example, in which YLD is computed for 3 recognized adverse reactions following 3 childhood vaccination types, based on background incidence rates and relative/absolute risks retrieved from the literature. RESULTS: YLD provided extra insight into the health impact of an adverse event over presentation of incidence rates only, as severity and duration are additionally incorporated. As well as providing guidance for the deployment of DALY methodology in the context of adverse events associated with vaccination, we also identified where data limitations potentially occur. CONCLUSIONS: Burden of disease methodology can be applied to estimate the health burden of adverse events following vaccination in a systematic way. As with all burden of disease studies, interpretation of the estimates must consider the quality and accuracy of the data sources contributing to the DALY computation.

Validation of current procedural terminology codes for rotavirus vaccination among infants in two commercially insured US populations.

PURPOSE: We validated procedure codes used in health insurance claims for reimbursement of rotavirus vaccination by comparing claims for monovalent live-attenuated human rotavirus vaccine (RV1) and live, oral pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) to medical records. METHODS: Using administrative data from two commercially insured United States populations, we randomly sampled vaccination claims for RV1 and RV5 from a cohort of infants aged less than 1 year from an ongoing post-licensure safety study of rotavirus vaccines. The codes for RV1 and RV5 found in claims were confirmed through medical record review. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the Current Procedural Terminology codes for RV1 and RV5 was calculated as the number of medical record-confirmed vaccinations divided by the number of medical records obtained. RESULTS: Medical record review confirmed 92 of 104 RV1 vaccination claims (PPV: 88.5%; 95% CI: 80.7-93.9%) and 98 of 113 RV5 vaccination claims (PPV: 86.7%; 95% CI: 79.1-92.4%). Among the 217 medical records abstracted, only three (1.4%) of vaccinations were misclassified in claims-all were RV5 misclassified as RV1. The medical records corresponding to 9 RV1 and 15 RV5 claims contained insufficient information to classify the type of rotavirus vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Misclassification of rotavirus vaccines is infrequent within claims. The PPVs reported here are conservative estimates as those with insufficient information in the medical records were assumed to be incorrectly coded in the claims. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010.

Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG), which here reports their first estimates of the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to 31 foodborne hazards. We find that the global burden of FBD is comparable to those of the major infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents, particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp. Diarrheal disease agents, especially non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, were also responsible for the majority of deaths due to FBD. Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium and hepatitis A virus. The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards in 2010 was 33 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); children under five years old bore 40% of this burden. The 14 subregions, defined on the basis of child and adult mortality, had considerably different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than overestimates; further studies are needed to address the data gaps and limitations of the study. Nevertheless, all stakeholders can contribute to improvements in food safety throughout the food chain by incorporating these estimates into policy development at national and international levels.

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 11 Foodborne Parasitic Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Foodborne diseases are globally important, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Parasitic diseases often result in high burdens of disease in low and middle income countries and are frequently transmitted to humans via contaminated food. This study presents the first estimates of the global and regional human disease burden of 10 helminth diseases and toxoplasmosis that may be attributed to contaminated food. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were abstracted from 16 systematic reviews or similar studies published between 2010 and 2015; from 5 disease data bases accessed in 2015; and from 79 reports, 73 of which have been published since 2000, 4 published between 1995 and 2000 and 2 published in 1986 and 1981. These included reports from national surveillance systems, journal articles, and national estimates of foodborne diseases. These data were used to estimate the number of infections, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), by age and region for 2010. These parasitic diseases, resulted in 48.4 million cases (95% Uncertainty intervals [UI] of 43.4-79.0 million) and 59,724 (95% UI 48,017-83,616) deaths annually resulting in 8.78 million (95% UI 7.62-12.51 million) DALYs. We estimated that 48% (95% UI 38%-56%) of cases of these parasitic diseases were foodborne, resulting in 76% (95% UI 65%-81%) of the DALYs attributable to these diseases. Overall, foodborne parasitic disease, excluding enteric protozoa, caused an estimated 23.2 million (95% UI 18.2-38.1 million) cases and 45,927 (95% UI 34,763-59,933) deaths annually resulting in an estimated 6.64 million (95% UI 5.61-8.41 million) DALYs. Foodborne Ascaris infection (12.3 million cases, 95% UI 8.29-22.0 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis (10.3 million cases, 95% UI 7.40-14.9 million) were the most common foodborne parasitic diseases. Human cysticercosis with 2.78 million DALYs (95% UI 2.14-3.61 million), foodborne trematodosis with 2.02 million DALYs (95% UI 1.65-2.48 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis with 825,000 DALYs (95% UI 561,000-1.26 million) resulted in the highest burdens in terms of DALYs, mainly due to years lived with disability. Foodborne enteric protozoa, reported elsewhere, resulted in an additional 67.2 million illnesses or 492,000 DALYs. Major limitations of our study include often substantial data gaps that had to be filled by imputation and suffer from the uncertainties that surround such models. Due to resource limitations it was also not possible to consider all potentially foodborne parasites (for example Trypanosoma cruzi). CONCLUSIONS: Parasites are frequently transmitted to humans through contaminated food. These estimates represent an important step forward in understanding the impact of foodborne diseases globally and regionally. The disease burden due to most foodborne parasites is highly focal and results in significant morbidity and mortality among vulnerable populations.

Data-driven methods for imputing national-level incidence in global burden of disease studies.

OBJECTIVE: To develop transparent and reproducible methods for imputing missing data on disease incidence at national-level for the year 2005. METHODS: We compared several models for imputing missing country-level incidence rates for two foodborne diseases - congenital toxoplasmosis and aflatoxin-related hepatocellular carcinoma. Missing values were assumed to be missing at random. Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. We compared the predictive performance of naive extrapolation approaches and Bayesian random and mixed-effects regression models. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to evaluate model accuracy. FINDINGS: The predictive accuracy of the Bayesian mixed-effects models was significantly better than that of the naive extrapolation method for one of the two disease models. However, Bayesian mixed-effects models produced wider prediction intervals for both data sets. CONCLUSION: Several approaches are available for imputing missing data at national level. Strengths of a hierarchical regression approach for this type of task are the ability to derive estimates from other similar countries, transparency, computational efficiency and ease of interpretation. The inclusion of informative covariates may improve model performance, but results should be appraised carefully.

Assessing the burden of human cysticercosis in Vietnam.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the occurrence of cysticercosis in patients living in rural areas of Northern Vietnam presenting clinical signs of neurocysticercosis. METHODS: Serological antigen detection, reflecting current infection with viable larval stages of Taenia solium, was used to estimate the prevalence of active cysticercosis in this patient population. RESULTS: The seroprevalence in epileptic patient population was <10%. However, antigen detection cannot detect dead cysticerci, which may also cause clinical signs. Therefore, the seroprevalence figures shown here may underestimate the role of neurocysticercosis as a causal agent of epilepsy and headaches in this population. CONCLUSIONS: Human and porcine cysticercosis remain public and veterinary public health problems in Northern Vietnam and probably in other parts of the country.

Bayesian modelling to estimate the test characteristics of coprology, coproantigen ELISA and a novel real-time PCR for the diagnosis of taeniasis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate and compare the performances of coprology, copro-Ag ELISA and real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (copro-PCR) for detection of Taenia solium tapeworm carriers. METHODS: The three diagnostic tests were applied on 817 stool samples collected in two Zambian communities where taeniasis is endemic. A Bayesian approach was used to allow estimation of the test characteristics. Two (0.2%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0-0.8), 67 (8.2%; 95% CI: 6.4-10.3) and 10 (1.2%; 95% CI: 0.5-2.2) samples were positive using coprology, copro-Ag ELISA and copro-PCR, respectively. RESULTS: Specificities of 99.9%, 92.0% and 99.0% were determined for coprology, copro-Ag ELISA and copro-PCR, respectively. Sensitivities of 52.5%, 84.5% and 82.7% were determined for coprology, copro-Ag ELISA and copro-PCR, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We urge for additional studies exploring possible cross-reactions of the copro-Ag ELISA and for the use of more sensitive tests, such as copro-PCR, for the detection of tapeworm carriers, which is a key factor in controlling the parasite in endemic areas.

Epidemiology of Taenia solium in Nepal: is it influenced by the social characteristics of the population and the presence of Taenia asiatica?

The transmission of the zoonotic pork tapeworms Taenia solium and T. asiatica depends on a combination of specific risk factors, such as open defecation, backyard pig raising and the consumption of raw or undercooked pork and viscera. A community-based survey was conducted among 289 households in south-eastern Nepal to study the heterogeneity of these risk factor frequencies as a function of the social composition of the population. The frequency of open defecation, backyard pig raising and pork consumption differed significantly (P < 0.005) among the different coexisting caste and ethnic groups. In the same survey, the taeniosis prevalence was examined among the different groups. Tapeworm carriers were identified at a high prevalence among the Dum, one of the most disadvantaged communities of Nepal. A PCR-RFLP assay revealed that all collected tapeworm specimens were T. asiatica, a species thus far not known to occur in South Asia. These results can help to understand the epidemiology of T. solium in Nepal, which appears to be more complex than thought so far.

Prevalence of neurocysticercosis among people with epilepsy in rural areas of Burkina Faso.

PURPOSE: To estimate the lifetime prevalence of neurocysticercosis (NCC)-associated epilepsy and the proportion of NCC among people with epilepsy in three Burkina Faso villages. METHODS: Three villages were selected to represent three types of pig-rearing methods: (1) Batondo, where pigs are left to roam; (2) Pabré, where pigs are mostly tethered or penned; and (3) Nyonyogo, where the majority of residents are Muslim and few pigs are raised. In Batondo and Nyonyogo, all concessions (a group of several households) were included. Half of the concessions in Pabré were randomly chosen. All households of selected concessions were included, and one person per household was randomly selected for epilepsy screening and serologic testing for cysticercosis. Self-reported cases of epilepsy were also examined and confirmed cases included in analyses other than the estimate of NCC-associated epilepsy prevalence. Epilepsy was defined as ever having had more than one episode of unprovoked seizures. Individuals with medically confirmed epilepsy had a computerized tomography (CT) scan of the brain before and after contrast medium injection. The diagnosis of NCC was made using a modification of the criteria of Del Brutto et al. KEY FINDINGS: Thirty-nine (4%) of 888 randomly selected villagers and 33 (94%) of 35 self-reported seizures cases were confirmed to have epilepsy by medical examination. Among the 68 participants with epilepsy who had a CT scan, 20 patients were diagnosed with definitive or probable NCC for a proportion of 46.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 30.2-64.1) in Batondo and 45.5% (95% CI 19.0-74.1) in Pabré. No cases of NCC were identified in Nyonyogo. SIGNIFICANCE: All the definitive and probable cases of NCC were from the two villages where pig breeding is common. Prevention policies intended to reduce the burden of epilepsy in this country should include measures designed to interrupt the life cycle of Taenia solium.

Quantitative Benefit-Risk Models Used for Rotavirus Vaccination: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Although rotavirus vaccines have proven to prevent the risk of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in children under 5 years old, they are also associated with an increased transient risk of intussusception (IS). Several quantitative benefit-risk models (qBRm) are performed to measure this balance in hospitalizations and deaths prevented versus the ones induced. METHOD: In this study, our objective was to provide a complete overview of qBRm used for rotavirus vaccination. We systematically searched 3 medical literature databases to identify relevant articles, in English, that were published between 2006 and 2019. RESULTS: Of the 276 publications screened, 14 studies using qBRm for rotavirus vaccination were retained, based on preselected criteria. Four were performed in low- and middle-income countries. Almost all (13 of 14) displayed the following characteristics: force of infection assumed to be constant over time (static model), indirect effect of rotavirus vaccination (herd effect) not considered, closed model (individuals not allowed to enter and/or exit the model over time), and aggregated level (no tracking of individual's behavior). Most of the models were probabilistic (9 of 14) and reported sensitivity and/or scenario analyses (12 of 14). Input parameter values varied across studies. Selected studies suggest that, depending on the models used, for every IS hospitalization and death induced, vaccination would prevent, respectively, 190-1624 and 71-743 RVGE-related hospitalizations and deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of rotavirus vaccination were shown to largely exceed the increased risk of IS, across all studies. Future research aiming to harmonize qBRm for rotavirus vaccination should ensure the comparability of studies and provide additional information for regulatory authorities, physicians, and patients.

Benefit-Risk Assessment of Vaccines. Part II: Proposal Towards Consolidated Standards of Reporting Quantitative Benefit-Risk Models Applied to Vaccines (BRIVAC).

INTRODUCTION: Quantitative benefit-risk models (qBRm) applied to vaccines are increasingly used by public health authorities and pharmaceutical companies as an important tool to help decision makers with supporting benefit-risk assessment (BRA). However, many publications on vaccine qBRm provide insufficient details on the methodological approaches used. Incomplete and/or inadequate qBRm reporting may affect result interpretation and confidence in BRA, highlighting a need for the development of standard reporting guidance. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to provide an operational checklist for improved reporting of vaccine qBRm. METHODS: The consolidated standards of reporting quantitative Benefit-RIsk models applied to VACcines (BRIVAC) were designed as a checklist of key information to report in qBRm scientific publications regarding the assessed vaccines, the methodological considerations and the results and their interpretation. RESULTS: In total, 22 items and accompanying definitions, recommendations, explanations and examples were provided and divided into six main sections corresponding to the classic subdivisions of a scientific publication: title and abstract (items 1-2), introduction (items 3-4), methods (items 5-15), results (items 16-17), discussion (items 18-20) and other (items 21-22). CONCLUSIONS: The BRIVAC checklist is the first initiative providing an operational checklist for improved reporting of qBRm applied to vaccines in scientific articles. It is intended to assist authors, peer-reviewers, editors and readers in their critical appraisal. Future initiatives are needed to provide methodological guidance to perform qBRm while taking into account the vaccine specificities.

Benefit-Risk Assessment of Vaccines. Part I: A Systematic Review to Identify and Describe Studies About Quantitative Benefit-Risk Models Applied to Vaccines.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the balance between the benefits and risks of vaccination is essential to ensure informed and adequate public health decision making. Quantitative benefit-risk models (qBRm) represent useful tools to help decision makers with supporting benefit-risk assessment throughout the lifecycle of a medical product. However, few initiatives have been launched to harmonise qBRm approaches, specifically for vaccines. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper was to identify publications about qBRm applied to vaccines through a systematic literature review, and to describe their characteristics. METHODS: Medline, Scopus and Institute for Scientific Information Web of Knowledge databases were searched to identify articles in English, published from database inceptions up to December 2019. The search strategy included the combination of three key concepts: 'benefit-risk', 'modelling' and 'vaccines'. Data extracted included the modelling context and the methodological approaches used. RESULTS: Of 3172 publications screened, 48 original publications were included. Most of the selected studies were published over the past decade and focused on rotavirus (15), dengue (10) and influenza (6) vaccines. The majority (30) of studies reported analyses related to high-income countries. The methodology of the studies differed, particularly in modelling techniques, benefit-risk measures, and sensitivity analyses. The present work also pointed out a high level of variability in the quality of reporting across studies, with particular regard to input parameters and methodological approaches. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides an extensive list of qBRm applied to vaccines. Discrepancies across studies were identified during our review. While the number of published qBRm studies is increasing, no reporting guidance for qBRm applied to vaccines is currently available. This may affect decision makers' confidence in the results and their benefit-risk assessment(s); therefore, the development of such reporting guidance is highly needed.

Using Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation To Construct Quantitative Benefit-Risk Models: The Example of Rotavirus Vaccination in France.

PURPOSE: Although quantitative benefit-risk models (qBRms) are indisputably valuable tools for gaining comprehensive assessments of health care interventions, they are not systematically used, probably because they lack an integrated framework that provides methodologic structure and harmonization. An alternative that allows all stakeholders to design operational models starting from a standardized framework was recently developed: the discretely integrated condition event (DICE) simulation. The aim of the present work was to assess the feasibility of implementing a qBRm in DICE, using the example of rotavirus vaccination. METHODS: A model of rotavirus vaccination was designed using DICE and implemented in spreadsheet software with 3 worksheets: Conditions, Events, and Outputs. Conditions held the information in the model; this information changed at Events, and Outputs were special Conditions that stored the results collected during the analysis. A hypothetical French birth cohort was simulated for the assessment of rotavirus vaccination over time. The benefits were estimated for up to 5 years, and the risks in the 7 days following rotavirus vaccination versus no vaccination were assessed, with the results expressed as benefit-risk ratios. FINDINGS: This qBRm model required 8 Events, 38 Conditions, and 9 Outputs. Two Events cyclically updated the rates of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and intussusception (IS) according to age. Vaccination occurred at 2 additional Events, according to the vaccination scheme applied in France, and affected the occurrence of the other Events. Outputs were the numbers of hospitalizations related to RVGE and to IS, and related deaths. The entire model was specified in a small set of tables contained in a 445-KB electronic workbook. Analyses showed that for each IS-related hospitalization or death caused, 1613 (95% credible interval, 1001-2800) RVGE-related hospitalizations and 787 (95% credible interval, 246-2691) RVGE-related deaths would be prevented by vaccination. These results are consistent with those from a published French study using similar inputs but a very different modeling approach. IMPLICATIONS: A limitation of the DICE approach was the extended run time needed for completing the sensitivity analyses when implemented in the electronic worksheets. DICE provided a user-friendly integrated framework for developing qBRms and should be considered in the development of structured approaches to facilitate benefit-risk assessment.

Estimating Annual Fluctuations in Malaria Transmission Intensity and in the Use of Malaria Control Interventions in Five Sub-Saharan African Countries.

RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine safety, effectiveness, and impact will be assessed in pre- and post-vaccine introduction studies, comparing the occurrence of malaria cases and adverse events in vaccinated versus unvaccinated children. Because those comparisons may be confounded by potential year-to-year fluctuations in malaria transmission intensity and malaria control intervention usage, the latter should be carefully monitored to adequately adjust the analyses. This observational cross-sectional study is assessing Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR) and malaria control intervention usage over nine annual surveys performed at peak parasite transmission. Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence was measured by microscopy and nucleic acid amplification test (quantitative PCR) in parallel in all participants, and defined as the proportion of infected participants among participants tested. Results of surveys 1 (S1) and 2 (S2), conducted in five sub-Saharan African countries, including some participating in the Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP), are reported herein; 4,208 and 4,199 children were, respectively, included in the analyses. Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence estimated using microscopy varied between study sites in both surveys, with the lowest prevalence in Senegalese sites and the highest in Burkina Faso. In sites located in the MVIP areas (Kintampo and Kombewa), PfPR in children aged 6 months to 4 years ranged from 24.8% to 27.3%, depending on the study site and the survey. Overall, 89.5% and 86.4% of children used a bednet in S1 and S2, of whom 68.7% and 77.9% used impregnated bednets. No major difference was observed between the two surveys in terms of PfPR or use of malaria control interventions.

PCR and direct agglutination as Leishmania infection markers among healthy Nepalese subjects living in areas endemic for Kala-Azar.

OBJECTIVE: To compare a PCR assay and direct agglutination test (DAT) for the detection of potential markers of Leishmania infection in 231 healthy subjects living in a kala-azar endemic focus of Nepal. METHODS: The sample was composed of 184 (80%) persons without any known history of KA and not living in the same house as known kala-azar cases (HNK), 24 (10%) Healthy Household Contacts (HHC) and 23 (10%) past kala-azar cases which had been successfully treated (HPK). RESULTS: PCR and DAT positivity scores were, respectively: HNK, 17.6% and 5.6%; HHC, 12.5% and 20.8%; HPK, 26.1% and 95.7%. The ratio PCR-positives/DAT-positives was significantly higher in HNK (ratio = 3.1) than in HHC (ratio = 0.6, P = 0.036) and in HPK (ratio = 0.2, P = 0.012). The ratio PCR-positives/DAT-positives did not significantly differ between HHC (ratio = 0.6) and HPK (ratio = 0.2, P = 0.473). The positive agreement index between PCR and DAT in HNK was 5%; in HHC, 0%; in HPK, 43%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the specific character of PCR and DAT for the exploration of Leishmania asymptomatic infections. PCR is probably more informative for very recent infections among HNK, while DAT provides more information among HHC and HPK, a feature likely related to the power of serology to track less recent infections.

Introducing new vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: challenges and approaches.

INTRODUCTION: The number of new vaccine introductions (NVIs) in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) has markedly increased since 2010, raising challenges to often overstretched and underfunded health care systems. AREAS COVERED: We present an overview of some of these challenges, focusing on programmatic decisions, delivery strategy, information and communication, pharmacovigilance and post-licensure evaluation. We also highlight field-based initiatives that may facilitate NVI. EXPERT COMMENTARY: Some new vaccines targeting populations other than infants require alternative delivery strategies. NVIs impact upon existing supply chain management, in particular vaccines with novel characteristics. A lack of understanding about immunization and misconceptions may be detrimental to NVI, as well as insufficient or poorly trained health care workforce. Many barriers exist to achieving good vaccination coverage. Real-world evaluation of vaccine safety, effectiveness and impact in LMICs may be limited by lack of robust demographic and disease epidemiology data, as well as limited health care and surveillance infrastructure. A thorough planning phase is crucial to define the most suitable delivery strategy based on the vaccine's and country's specificities. A communication plan and social mobilization are essential. Implementation research and innovative approaches applied to logistics, delivery, communication and program evaluation can facilitate NVI.

Evaluation of antibody-ELISA and real-time RT-PCR for the diagnosis and profiling of bluetongue virus serotype 8 during the epidemic in Belgium in 2006.

In 2006 bluetongue (BT) emerged for the first time in North-Western Europe. Reliable diagnostic tools are essential in controlling BT but data on the diagnostic sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) are often missing. This paper aims to describe and analyse the results obtained with the diagnostics used in Belgium during the 2006 BT crisis. The diagnosis was based on a combination of antibody detection (competitive ELISA, cELISA) and viral RNA detection by real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR). The performance of the cELISA as a diagnostic tool was assessed on field results obtained during the epidemic and previous surveillance campaigns. As the infectious status of the animals is unknown during an epidemic, a Bayesian analysis was performed. Both assays were found to be equally specific (RT-qPCR: 98.5%; cELISA: 98.2%) while the diagnostic sensitivity of the RT-qPCR (99.5%) was superior to that of the cELISA (87.8%). The assumption of RT-qPCR as standard of comparison during the bluetongue virus (BTV) epidemic proved valid based on the results of the Bayesian analysis. A ROC analysis of the cELISA, using RT-qPCR as standard of comparison, showed that the cut-off point with the highest accuracy occurred at a percentage negativity of 66, which is markedly higher than the cut-off proposed by the manufacturer. The analysis of the results was further extended to serological and molecular profiling and the possible use of profiling as a rapid epidemiological marker of the BTV in-field situation was assessed. A comparison of the serological profiles obtained before, during and at the end of the Belgian epidemic clearly showed the existence of an intermediate zone which appears soon after BTV (re)enters the population. The appearance or disappearance of this intermediate zone is correlated with virus circulation and provides valuable information, which would be entirely overlooked if only positive and negative results were considered.