RESUMEN
Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration "surrogates," which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from "global" chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using "global" surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using "expert-selected" surrogates (n = 3) instead of "global" surrogates (n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Neighborhood characteristics are robust predictors of overall health and mortality risk for residents. Though there has been some investigation of the role that molecular indicators may play in mediating neighborhood exposures, there has been little effort to incorporate newly developed epigenetic biomarkers into our understanding of neighborhood characteristics and health outcomes. METHODS: Using 157 participants of the Detroit Neighborhood Health Study with detailed assessments of neighborhood characteristics and genome-wide DNA methylation profiling via the Illumina 450K methylation array, we assessed the relationship between objective neighborhood characteristics and a validated DNA methylation-based epigenetic mortality risk score (eMRS). Associations were adjusted for age, race, sex, ever smoking, ever alcohol usage, education, years spent in neighborhood, and employment. A secondary model additionally adjusted for personal neighborhood perception. We summarized 19 neighborhood quality indicators assessed for participants into 9 principal components which explained over 90% of the variance in the data and served as metrics of objective neighborhood quality exposures. RESULTS: Of the nine principal components utilized for this study, one was strongly associated with the eMRS (ß = 0.15; 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.24; P = 0.002). This principal component (PC7) was most strongly driven by the presence of abandoned cars, poor streets, and non-art graffiti. Models including both PC7 and individual indicators of neighborhood perception indicated that only PC7 and not neighborhood perception impacted the eMRS. When stratified on neighborhood indicators of greenspace, we observed a potentially protective effect of large mature trees as this feature substantially attenuated the observed association. CONCLUSION: Objective measures of neighborhood disadvantage are significantly associated with an epigenetic predictor of mortality risk, presenting a potential novel avenue by which neighborhood-level exposures may impact health. Associations were independent of an individual's perception of their neighborhood and attenuated by neighborhood greenspace features. More work should be done to determine molecular risk factors associated with neighborhoods, and potentially protective neighborhood features against adverse molecular effects.