Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species.

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28 years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

An invariability-area relationship sheds new light on the spatial scaling of ecological stability.

The spatial scaling of stability is key to understanding ecological sustainability across scales and the sensitivity of ecosystems to habitat destruction. Here we propose the invariability-area relationship (IAR) as a novel approach to investigate the spatial scaling of stability. The shape and slope of IAR are largely determined by patterns of spatial synchrony across scales. When synchrony decays exponentially with distance, IARs exhibit three phases, characterized by steeper increases in invariability at both small and large scales. Such triphasic IARs are observed for primary productivity from plot to continental scales. When synchrony decays as a power law with distance, IARs are quasilinear on a log-log scale. Such quasilinear IARs are observed for North American bird biomass at both species and community levels. The IAR provides a quantitative tool to predict the effects of habitat loss on population and ecosystem stability and to detect regime shifts in spatial ecological systems, which are goals of relevance to conservation and policy.