Minimally Invasive Breast Biopsy After Neoadjuvant Systemic Treatment to Identify Breast Cancer Patients with Residual Disease for Extended Neoadjuvant Treatment: A New Concept.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer patients with residual disease after neoadjuvant systemic treatment (NAST) have a worse prognosis compared with those achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR). Earlier identification of these patients might allow timely, extended neoadjuvant treatment strategies. We explored the feasibility of a vacuum-assisted biopsy (VAB) after NAST to identify patients with residual disease (ypT+ or ypN+) prior to surgery. METHODS: We used data from a multicenter trial, collected at 21 study sites (NCT02948764). The trial included women with cT1-3, cN0/+ breast cancer undergoing routine post-neoadjuvant imaging (ultrasound, MRI, mammography) and VAB prior to surgery. We compared the findings of VAB and routine imaging with the histopathologic evaluation of the surgical specimen. RESULTS: Of 398 patients, 34 patients with missing ypN status and 127 patients with luminal tumors were excluded. Among the remaining 237 patients, tumor cells in the VAB indicated a surgical non-pCR in all patients (73/73, positive predictive value [PPV] 100%), whereas PPV of routine imaging after NAST was 56.0% (75/134). Sensitivity of the VAB was 72.3% (73/101), and 74.3% for sensitivity of imaging (75/101). CONCLUSION: Residual cancer found in a VAB specimen after NAST always corresponds to non-pCR. Residual cancer assumed on routine imaging after NAST corresponds to actual residual cancer in about half of patients. Response assessment by VAB is not safe for the exclusion of residual cancer. Response assessment by biopsies after NAST may allow studying the new concept of extended neoadjuvant treatment for patients with residual disease in future trials.

Plasma NGAL levels in stable kidney transplant recipients and the risk of allograft loss.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and calprotectin (CPT) to predict long-term graft survival in stable kidney transplant recipients (KTR). METHODS: A total of 709 stable outpatient KTR were enrolled >2 months post-transplant. The utility of plasma and urinary NGAL (pNGAL, uNGAL) and plasma and urinary CPT at enrollment to predict death-censored graft loss was evaluated during a 58-month follow-up. RESULTS: Among biomarkers, pNGAL showed the best predictive ability for graft loss and was the only biomarker with an area under the curve (AUC) > 0.7 for graft loss within 5 years. Patients with graft loss within 5 years (n = 49) had a median pNGAL of 304 [interquartile range (IQR) 235-358] versus 182 (IQR 128-246) ng/mL with surviving grafts (P < .001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analyses at 58 months indicated an AUC for pNGAL of 0.795, serum creatinine-based Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) had an AUC of 0.866. pNGAL added to a model based on conventional risk factors for graft loss with death as competing risk (age, transplant age, presence of donor-specific antibodies, presence of proteinuria, history of delayed graft function) had a strong independent association with graft loss {subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) for binary log-transformed pNGAL [log2(pNGAL)] 3.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.24-5.15, P < .0001}. This association was substantially attenuated when eGFR was added to the model [sHR for log2(pNGAL) 1.63, 95% CI 0.92-2.88, P = .095]. Category-free net reclassification improvement of a risk model including log2(pNGAL) in addition to conventional risk factors and eGFR was 54.3% (95% CI 9.2%-99.3%) but C-statistic did not improve significantly. CONCLUSIONS: pNGAL was an independent predictor of renal allograft loss in stable KTR from one transplant center but did not show consistent added value when compared with baseline predictors including the conventional marker eGFR. Future studies in larger cohorts are warranted.

Point estimation, confidence intervals, and P-values for optimal adaptive two-stage designs with normal endpoints.

Due to the dependency structure in the sampling process, adaptive trial designs create challenges in point and interval estimation and in the calculation of P-values. Optimal adaptive designs, which are designs where the parameters governing the adaptivity are chosen to maximize some performance criterion, suffer from the same problem. Various analysis methods which are able to handle this dependency structure have already been developed. In this work, we aim to give a comprehensive summary of these methods and show how they can be applied to the class of designs with planned adaptivity, of which optimal adaptive designs are an important member. The defining feature of these kinds of designs is that the adaptive elements are completely prespecified. This allows for explicit descriptions of the calculations involved, which makes it possible to evaluate different methods in a fast and accurate manner. We will explain how to do so, and present an extensive comparison of the performance characteristics of various estimators between an optimal adaptive design and its group-sequential counterpart.

Reducing Distress from Auditory Verbal Hallucinations: A Multicenter, Parallel, Single-Blind, Randomized Controlled Feasibility Trial of Relating Therapy.

INTRODUCTION: There is a significant demand for interventions that reduce distress related to auditory verbal hallucinations (AVHs). AVH distress is associated with the way voice hearers relate with AVHs. We aimed to establish the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding "Relating Therapy" (RT) to treatment as usual (TAU) is superior to TAU in reducing AVH distress. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, parallel, single-blind, randomized controlled feasibility trial in five mental health centers in Germany. Participants were ≥19 years of age, had persistent and distressing AVHs, and had a diagnosis of a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder. RT was delivered over a maximum of 16 sessions within 5 months. Blind assessments were conducted at baseline and at 5 and 9 months. Feasibility outcomes were the number of patients recruited and retained, and safety and therapist adherence. The primary endpoint was the distress factor score of the AVH subscale of the Psychotic Symptoms Rating Scales at 9 months. RESULTS: Eighty-five of 177 enrolled participants were randomized into RT + TAU (n = 43) or TAU (n = 42). Feasibility was excellent with 87% retention at 9 months, 86% reaching treatment uptake criteria, 98% therapist adherence, and no unexpected serious adverse reactions. Compared to TAU, RT + TAU showed nonsignificant trends toward less AVH distress (b = -2.40, SE = 1.52, p = 0.121, 90% CI (-4.94 to 0.15) and stronger improvement on all but one of the secondary outcomes. CONCLUSION: A randomized controlled trial of RT is feasible, safe, and well accepted. Our results provide an encouraging basis to further test the efficacy of RT in a definitive multicenter trial.

Optimal futility stopping boundaries for binary endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Group sequential designs incorporating the option to stop for futility at the time point of an interim analysis can save time and resources. Thereby, the choice of the futility boundary importantly impacts the design's resulting performance characteristics, including the power and probability to correctly or wrongly stop for futility. Several authors contributed to the topic of selecting good futility boundaries. For binary endpoints, Simon's designs (Control Clin Trials 10:1-10, 1989) are commonly used two-stage designs for single-arm phase II studies incorporating futility stopping. However, Simon's optimal design frequently yields an undesirably high probability of falsely declaring futility after the first stage, and in Simon's minimax design often a high proportion of the planned sample size is already evaluated at the interim analysis leaving only limited benefit in case of an early stop. METHODS: This work focuses on the optimality criteria introduced by Schüler et al. (BMC Med Res Methodol 17:119, 2017) and extends their approach to binary endpoints in single-arm phase II studies. An algorithm for deriving optimized futility boundaries is introduced, and the performance of study designs implementing this concept of optimal futility boundaries is compared to the common Simon's minimax and optimal designs, as well as modified versions of these designs by Kim et al. (Oncotarget 10:4255-61, 2019). RESULTS: The introduced optimized futility boundaries aim to maximize the probability of correctly stopping for futility in case of small or opposite effects while also setting constraints on the time point of the interim analysis, the power loss, and the probability of stopping the study wrongly, i.e. stopping the study even though the treatment effect shows promise. Overall, the operating characteristics, such as maximum sample size and expected sample size, are comparable to those of the classical and modified Simon's designs and sometimes better. Unlike Simon's designs, which have binding stopping rules, the optimized futility boundaries proposed here are not adjusted to exhaust the full targeted nominal significance level and are thus still valid for non-binding applications. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the futility boundary and the time point of the interim analysis have a major impact on the properties of the study design. Therefore, they should be thoroughly investigated at the planning stage. The introduced method of selecting optimal futility boundaries provides a more flexible alternative to Simon's designs with non-binding stopping rules. The probability of wrongly stopping for futility is minimized and the optimized futility boundaries don't exhibit the unfavorable properties of an undesirably high probability of falsely declaring futility or a high proportion of the planned sample evaluated at the interim time point.

Extension of a conditional performance score for sample size recalculation rules to the setting of binary endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculation is a central aspect in planning of clinical trials. The sample size is calculated based on parameter assumptions, like the treatment effect and the endpoint's variance. A fundamental problem of this approach is that the true distribution parameters are not known before the trial. Hence, sample size calculation always contains a certain degree of uncertainty, leading to the risk of underpowering or oversizing a trial. One way to cope with this uncertainty are adaptive designs. Adaptive designs allow to adjust the sample size during an interim analysis. There is a large number of such recalculation rules to choose from. To guide the choice of a suitable adaptive design with sample size recalculation, previous literature suggests a conditional performance score for studies with a normally distributed endpoint. However, binary endpoints are also frequently applied in clinical trials and the application of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints is not yet investigated. METHODS: We extend the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints by suggesting a related one-dimensional score parametrization. We moreover perform a simulation study to evaluate the operational characteristics and to illustrate application. RESULTS: We find that the score definition can be extended without modification to the case of binary endpoints. We represent the score results by a single distribution parameter, and therefore derive a single effect measure, which contains the difference in proportions [Formula: see text] between the intervention and the control group, as well as the endpoint proportion [Formula: see text] in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: This research extends the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints and demonstrates its application in practice.

Sample Size Calculation Under Nonproportional Hazards Using Average Hazard Ratios.

Many clinical trials assess time-to-event endpoints. To describe the difference between groups in terms of time to event, we often employ hazard ratios. However, the hazard ratio is only informative in the case of proportional hazards (PHs) over time. There exist many other effect measures that do not require PHs. One of them is the average hazard ratio (AHR). Its core idea is to utilize a time-dependent weighting function that accounts for time variation. Though propagated in methodological research papers, the AHR is rarely used in practice. To facilitate its application, we unfold approaches for sample size calculation of an AHR test. We assess the reliability of the sample size calculation by extensive simulation studies covering various survival and censoring distributions with proportional as well as nonproportional hazards (N-PHs). The findings suggest that a simulation-based sample size calculation approach can be useful for designing clinical trials with N-PHs. Using the AHR can result in increased statistical power to detect differences between groups with more efficient sample sizes.

Optimization of the two-stage group sequential three-arm gold-standard design for non-inferiority trials.

If design parameters are chosen appropriately, group sequential trial designs are known to be able to reduce the expected sample size under the alternative hypothesis compared to single-stage designs. The same holds true for the so-called 'gold-standard' design for non-inferiority trials, a design involving an experimental group, an active control group, and a placebo group. However, choosing design parameters that maximize the advantages of a two-stage approach for the three-arm gold-standard design for non-inferiority trials is not a straightforward task. In particular, optimal choices of futility boundaries for this design have not been thoroughly discussed in existing literature. We present a variation of the hierarchical testing procedure, which allows for the incorporation of binding futility boundaries at interim analyses. We show that this procedure maintains strong control of the family-wise type I error rate. Within this framework, we consider the futility and efficacy boundaries as well as the sample size allocation ratios as optimization parameters. This allows the investigation of the efficiency gain from including the option to stop for futility in addition to the ability to stop for efficacy. To analyze the extended designs, optimality criteria that include the design's performance under the alternative as well as the null hypothesis are introduced. On top of this, we discuss methods to limit the allocation of placebo patients in the trial while maintaining relatively good operating characteristics. The results of our numerical optimization procedure are discussed and a comparison of different approaches to designing a three-arm gold-standard non-inferiority trial is provided.

Two-stage designs with small sample sizes.

When applying group-sequential designs in clinical trials with normally distributed outcomes, approximate critical values are often applied. Here, normally distributed test statistics are assumed which, however, are in fact t-distributed. For small sample sizes, the approximation may lead to a serious inflation of the type I error rate. Recently, a method for computing the exact critical boundaries assuring type I error rate control was proposed and the critical boundaries for Pocock- and O'Brien-Fleming-like group-sequential designs were provided. For designs with one interim analysis, we present six alternative designs, which also control the type I error rate and in addition allow flexible design modifications. We compare the characteristics of these 6 two-stage designs. It is shown that considerable sample size savings can be achieved by including futility stopping and by optimizing the designs. Therefore, for clinical trials with small sample sizes as, for example, in the area of rare diseases, optimal two-stage designs with futility stopping may be a valuable alternative to classical group-sequential designs.

Potential of Lesion-to-Fat Elasticity Ratio Measured by Shear Wave Elastography to Reduce Benign Biopsies in BI-RADS 4 Breast Lesions.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated whether lesion-to-fat ratio measured by shear wave elastography in patients with Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 3 or 4 lesions has the potential to further refine the assessment of B-mode ultrasound alone in breast cancer diagnostics. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of an international diagnostic multicenter trial (NCT02638935). Data from 1288 women with breast lesions categorized as BI-RADS 3 and 4a-c by conventional B-mode ultrasound were analyzed, whereby the focus was placed on differentiating lesions categorized as BI-RADS 3 and BI-RADS 4a. All women underwent shear wave elastography and histopathologic evaluation functioning as reference standard. Reduction of benign biopsies as well as the number of missed malignancies after reclassification using lesion-to-fat ratio measured by shear wave elastography were evaluated. RESULTS: Breast cancer was diagnosed in 368 (28.6%) of 1288 lesions. The assessment with conventional B-mode ultrasound resulted in 53.8% (495 of 1288) pathologically benign lesions categorized as BI-RADS 4 and therefore false positives as well as in 1.39% (6 of 431) undetected malignancies categorized as BI-RADS 3. Additional lesion-to-fat ratio in BI-RADS 4a lesions with a cutoff value of 1.85 resulted in 30.11% biopsies of benign lesions which correspond to a reduction of 44.04% of false positives. CONCLUSIONS: Adding lesion-to-fat ratio measured by shear wave elastography to conventional B-mode ultrasound in BI-RADS 4a breast lesions could help reduce the number of benign biopsies by 44.04%. At the same time, however, 1.98% of malignancies were missed, which would still be in line with American College of Radiology BI-RADS 3 definition of <2% of undetected malignancies.

Propionate attenuates atherosclerosis by immune-dependent regulation of intestinal cholesterol metabolism.

AIMS: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and increased low-density lipoproteins (LDLs) play a critical role in development and progression of atherosclerosis. Here, we examined for the first time gut immunomodulatory effects of the microbiota-derived metabolite propionic acid (PA) on intestinal cholesterol metabolism. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using both human and animal model studies, we demonstrate that treatment with PA reduces blood total and LDL cholesterol levels. In apolipoprotein E-/- (Apoe-/-) mice fed a high-fat diet (HFD), PA reduced intestinal cholesterol absorption and aortic atherosclerotic lesion area. Further, PA increased regulatory T-cell numbers and interleukin (IL)-10 levels in the intestinal microenvironment, which in turn suppressed the expression of Niemann-Pick C1-like 1 (Npc1l1), a major intestinal cholesterol transporter. Blockade of IL-10 receptor signalling attenuated the PA-related reduction in total and LDL cholesterol and augmented atherosclerotic lesion severity in the HFD-fed Apoe-/- mice. To translate these preclinical findings to humans, we conducted a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled human study (clinical trial no. NCT03590496). Oral supplementation with 500 mg of PA twice daily over the course of 8 weeks significantly reduced LDL [-15.9 mg/dL (-8.1%) vs. -1.6 mg/dL (-0.5%), P = 0.016], total [-19.6 mg/dL (-7.3%) vs. -5.3 mg/dL (-1.7%), P = 0.014] and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels [PA vs. placebo: -18.9 mg/dL (-9.1%) vs. -0.6 mg/dL (-0.5%), P = 0.002] in subjects with elevated baseline LDL cholesterol levels. CONCLUSION: Our findings reveal a novel immune-mediated pathway linking the gut microbiota-derived metabolite PA with intestinal Npc1l1 expression and cholesterol homeostasis. The results highlight the gut immune system as a potential therapeutic target to control dyslipidaemia that may introduce a new avenue for prevention of ACVDs.

The Potential of Shear Wave Elastography to Reduce Unnecessary Biopsies in Breast Cancer Diagnosis: An International, Diagnostic, Multicenter Trial.

PURPOSE: In this prospective, multicenter trial we evaluated whether additional shear wave elastography (SWE) for patients with BI-RADS 3 or 4 lesions on breast ultrasound could further refine the assessment with B-mode breast ultrasound for breast cancer diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed prospective, multicenter, international data from 1288 women with breast lesions rated by conventional 2 D B-mode ultrasound as BI-RADS 3 to 4c and undergoing 2D-SWE. After reclassification with SWE the proportion of undetected malignancies should be < 2 %. All patients underwent histopathologic evaluation (reference standard). RESULTS: Histopathologic evaluation showed malignancy in 368 of 1288 lesions (28.6 %). The assessment with B-mode breast ultrasound resulted in 1.39 % (6 of 431) undetected malignancies (malignant lesions in BI-RADS 3) and 53.80 % (495 of 920) unnecessary biopsies (biopsies in benign lesions). Re-classifying BI-RADS 4a patients with a SWE cutoff of 2.55 m/s resulted in 1.98 % (11 of 556) undetected malignancies and a reduction of 24.24 % (375 vs. 495) of unnecessary biopsies. CONCLUSION: A SWE value below 2.55 m/s for BI-RADS 4a lesions could be used to downstage these lesions to follow-up, and therefore reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies by 24.24 %. However, this would come at the expense of some additionally missed cancers compared to B-mode breast ultrasound (rate of undetected malignancies 1.98 %, 11 of 556, versus 1.39 %, 6 of 431) which would, however, still be in line with the ACR BI-RADS 3 definition (< 2 % of undetected malignancies).

Diagnosing Pathologic Complete Response in the Breast After Neoadjuvant Systemic Treatment of Breast Cancer Patients by Minimal Invasive Biopsy: Oral Presentation at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium on Friday, December 13, 2019, Program Number GS5-03.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the ability of minimally invasive, image-guided vacuum-assisted biopsy (VAB) to reliably diagnose a pathologic complete response in the breast (pCR-B). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Neoadjuvant systemic treatment (NST) elicits a pathologic complete response in up to 80% of women with breast cancer. In such cases, breast surgery, the gold standard for confirming pCR-B, may be considered overtreatment. METHODS: This multicenter, prospective trial enrolled 452 women presenting with initial stage 1-3 breast cancer of all biological subtypes. Fifty-four women dropped out; 398 were included in the full analysis. All participants had an imaging-confirmed partial or complete response to NST and underwent study-specific image-guided VAB before guideline-adherent breast surgery. The primary endpoint was the false-negative rate (FNR) of VAB-confirmed pCR-B. RESULTS: Image-guided VAB alone did not detect surgically confirmed residual tumor in 37 of 208 women [FNR, 17.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 12.8-23.7%]. Of these 37 women, 12 (32.4%) had residual DCIS only, 20 (54.1%) had minimal residual tumor (<5 mm), and 19 of 25 (76.0%) exhibited invasive cancer cellularity of ≤10%. In 19 of the 37 cases (51.4%), the false-negative result was potentially avoidable. Exploratory analysis showed that performing VAB with the largest needle by volume (7-gauge) resulted in no false-negative results and that combining imaging and image-guided VAB into a single diagnostic test lowered the FNR to 6.2% (95% CI, 3.4%-10.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Image-guided VAB missed residual disease more often than expected. Refinements in procedure and patient selection seem possible and necessary before omitting breast surgery.

Vacuum-Assisted Breast Biopsy After Neoadjuvant Systemic Treatment for Reliable Exclusion of Residual Cancer in Breast Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: About 40 % of women with breast cancer achieve a pathologic complete response in the breast after neoadjuvant systemic treatment (NST). To identify these women, vacuum-assisted biopsy (VAB) was evaluated to facilitate risk-adaptive surgery. In confirmatory trials, the rates of missed residual cancer [false-negative rates (FNRs)] were unacceptably high (> 10%). This analysis aimed to improve the ability of VAB to exclude residual cancer in the breast reliably by identifying key characteristics of false-negative cases. METHODS: Uni- and multivariable logistic regressions were performed using data of a prospective multicenter trial (n = 398) to identify patient and VAB characteristics associated with false-negative cases (no residual cancer in the VAB but in the surgical specimen). Based on these findings FNR was exploratively re-calculated. RESULTS: In the multivariable analysis, a false-negative VAB result was significantly associated with accompanying ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the initial diagnostic biopsy [odds ratio (OR), 3.94; p < 0.001], multicentric disease on imaging before NST (OR, 2.74; p = 0.066), and age (OR, 1.03; p = 0.034). Exclusion of women with DCIS or multicentric disease (n = 114) and classication of VABs that did not remove the clip marker as uncertain representative VABs decreased the FNR to 2.9% (3/104). CONCLUSION: For patients without accompanying DCIS or multicentric disease, performing a distinct representative VAB (i.e., removing a well-placed clip marker) after NST suggests that VAB might reliably exclude residual cancer in the breast without surgery. This evidence will inform the design of future trials evaluating risk-adaptive surgery for exceptional responders to NST.

FIRE-9 - PORT / AIO-KRK-0418: a prospective, randomized, open, multicenter Phase III trial to investigate the efficacy of adjuvant/additive chemotherapy in patients with definitely-treated metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Additive/adjuvant chemotherapy as concept after local treatment of colorectal metastases has not been proven to be successful by phase III trials. Accordingly, a standard of care to improve relapse rates and long-term survival is not established and adjuvant chemotherapy cannot be recommended as a standard therapy due to limited evidence in literature. The PORT trial aims to generate evidence that post-resection/ablation/radiation chemotherapy improves the survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. METHODS: Patients to be included into this trial must have synchronous or metachronous metastases of colorectal cancer-either resected (R0 or R1) and/or effectively treated by ablation or radiation within 3-10 weeks before randomization-and have the primary tumor resected, without radiographic evidence of active metastatic disease at study entry. The primary endpoint of the trial is progression-free survival after 24 months, secondary endpoints include overall survival, safety, quality of life, treatments (including efficacy) beyond study participation, translational endpoints, and others. One arm of the study comprising 2/3 of the population will be treated for 6 months with modified FOLFOXIRI or modified FOLFOX6 (investigator´s choice, depending on the performance status of the patients but determined before randomization), while the other arm (1/3 of the population) will be observed and undergo scheduled follow-up computed tomography scans according to the interventional arm. DISCUSSION: Optimal oncological management after removal of colorectal metastases is unclear. The PORT trial aims to generate evidence that additive/adjuvant chemotherapy after definitive treatment of colorectal metastases improves progression free and overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT05008809 ) and EudraCT (2020-006,144-18).

Composite endpoint to evaluate complement inhibition therapy in patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria.

This study developed and explored a novel composite endpoint to assess the overall impact that treatment can have on patients living with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). Candidate composite endpoint variables were selected by a group of experts and included: lactate dehydrogenase levels as a measure of intravascular hemolysis; complete terminal complement inhibition; absence of major adverse vascular events, including thrombosis; absence of any adverse events leading to death or discontinuation of study treatment; transfusion avoidance; and improvements in fatigue-related quality of life as determined by the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy (FACIT)-Fatigue score. From these variables, a novel composite endpoint was constructed and explored using data collected in the ravulizumab PNH Study 301 (NCT02946463). Thresholds were defined and reported for each candidate variable. Five of the six candidate variables were included in the final composite endpoint; the FACIT-Fatigue score was excluded. Composite endpoint criterion was defined as patients meeting all five selected individual component thresholds. All patients in the ravulizumab arm achieved complete terminal complement inhibition and a reduction in lactate dehydrogenase levels; 51.2% and 41.3% of patients in the ravulizumab arm and eculizumab arm, respectively, achieved all composite endpoint component thresholds (treatment difference: 9.4%; 95% confidence interval: -3.0, 21.5). The composite endpoint provided a single and simultaneous measurement of overall benefit for patients receiving treatment for PNH. Use of the composite endpoint in future PNH research is recommended to determine clinical benefit, and its use in health technology assessments should be evaluated.

The importance of multi-modal imaging and clinical information for humans and AI-based algorithms to classify breast masses (INSPiRED 003): an international, multicenter analysis.

OBJECTIVES: AI-based algorithms for medical image analysis showed comparable performance to human image readers. However, in practice, diagnoses are made using multiple imaging modalities alongside other data sources. We determined the importance of this multi-modal information and compared the diagnostic performance of routine breast cancer diagnosis to breast ultrasound interpretations by humans or AI-based algorithms. METHODS: Patients were recruited as part of a multicenter trial (NCT02638935). The trial enrolled 1288 women undergoing routine breast cancer diagnosis (multi-modal imaging, demographic, and clinical information). Three physicians specialized in ultrasound diagnosis performed a second read of all ultrasound images. We used data from 11 of 12 study sites to develop two machine learning (ML) algorithms using unimodal information (ultrasound features generated by the ultrasound experts) to classify breast masses which were validated on the remaining study site. The same ML algorithms were subsequently developed and validated on multi-modal information (clinical and demographic information plus ultrasound features). We assessed performance using area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Of 1288 breast masses, 368 (28.6%) were histopathologically malignant. In the external validation set (n = 373), the performance of the two unimodal ultrasound ML algorithms (AUC 0.83 and 0.82) was commensurate with performance of the human ultrasound experts (AUC 0.82 to 0.84; p for all comparisons > 0.05). The multi-modal ultrasound ML algorithms performed significantly better (AUC 0.90 and 0.89) but were statistically inferior to routine breast cancer diagnosis (AUC 0.95, p for all comparisons ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of humans and AI-based algorithms improves with multi-modal information. KEY POINTS: • The performance of humans and AI-based algorithms improves with multi-modal information. • Multimodal AI-based algorithms do not necessarily outperform expert humans. • Unimodal AI-based algorithms do not represent optimal performance to classify breast masses.

Weighted composite time to event endpoints with recurrent events: comparison of three analytical approaches.

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials the study interest often lies in the comparison of a treatment to a control regarding a time to event endpoint. A composite endpoint allows to consider several time to event endpoints at once. Usually, only the time to the first occurring event for a patient is thereby analyzed. However, an individual may experience more than one non-fatal event. Including all observed events in the analysis can increase the power and provides a more complete picture of the disease. Thus, analytical methods for recurrent events are required. A challenge is that the different event types belonging to the composite often are of different clinical relevance. In this case, weighting the event types according to their clinical relevance is an option. Different weight-based methods for composite time to event endpoints were proposed. So far, there exists no systematic comparison of these methods. METHODS: Within this work we provide a systematic comparison of three methods proposed for weighted composite endpoints in a recurrent event setting combining non-fatal and fatal events of different clinical relevance. We consider an extension of an approach proposed by Wei and Lachin, an approach by Rauch et al., and an approach by Bakal et al.. Comparison is done based on a simulation study and based on a clinical study example. RESULTS: For all three approaches closed formula test statistics are available. The Wei-Lachin approach and the approach by Rauch et al. show similar results in mean squared error. For the approach by Wei and Lachin confidence intervals are provided. The approach by Bakal et al. is not related to a quantifiable estimand. The relevance weights of the different approaches work on different level, i.e. either on cause-specific hazard ratios or on event count. CONCLUSION: The provided comparison and simulations can help to guide applied researchers to choose an adequate method for the analysis of composite endpoints combining (recurrent) events of different clinical relevance. The approach by Wei and Lachin and Rauch et al. can be recommended in scenarios where the composite effect is time-independent. The approach by Bakal et al. should be applied carefully.

On the feasibility of pediatric dose-finding trials in small samples with information from a preceding trial in adults.

We consider the case of pediatric dose-finding trials with extremely limited sample size. The operating characteristics of the standard design, the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM), are only well described for sample sizes of about 20 patients or more. In this simulation study, we assume the situation of a pediatric trial with only 10 patients and a preceding dose-finding trial in adults. Based on the adult data, we reduce the set of pediatric doses and formulate (partially) informative prior distributions for the pediatric trial. Our simulations show that such small pediatric dose-finding trials with robustified priors may provide sufficient operating characteristics.

Optimal unplanned design modification in adaptive two-stage trials.

Adaptive planning of clinical trials allows modifying the entire trial design at any time point mid-course. In this paper, we consider the case when a trial-external update of the planning assumptions during the ongoing trial makes an unforeseen design adaptation necessary. We take up the idea to construct adaptive designs with defined features by solving an optimization problem and apply it to the situation of unplanned design reassessment. By using the conditional error principle, we present an approach on how to optimally modify the trial design at an unplanned interim analysis while at the same time strictly protecting the type I error rate. This linking of optimal design planning and the conditional error principle allows sound reactions to unforeseen events that make a design reassessment necessary.