Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Population-based data from the United States on the effectiveness of the three coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccines currently authorized by the Food and Drug Administration are limited. Whether declines in effectiveness are due to waning immunity, the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or other causes is unknown. METHODS: We used data for 8,690,825 adults in New York State to assess the effectiveness of the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines against laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 and hospitalization with Covid-19 (i.e., Covid-19 diagnosed at or after admission). We compared cohorts defined according to vaccine product received, age, and month of full vaccination with age-specific unvaccinated cohorts by linking statewide testing, hospital, and vaccine registry databases. We assessed vaccine effectiveness against Covid-19 from May 1 through September 3, 2021, and against hospitalization with Covid-19 from May 1 through August 31, 2021. RESULTS: There were 150,865 cases of Covid-19 and 14,477 hospitalizations with Covid-19. During the week of May 1, 2021, when the delta variant made up 1.8% of the circulating variants, the median vaccine effectiveness against Covid-19 was 91.3% (range, 84.1 to 97.0) for BNT162b2, 96.9% (range, 93.7 to 98.0) for mRNA-1273, and 86.6% (range, 77.8 to 89.7) for Ad26.COV2.S. Subsequently, effectiveness declined contemporaneously in all cohorts, from a median of 93.4% (range, 77.8 to 98.0) during the week of May 1 to a nadir of 73.5% (range, 13.8 to 90.0) around July 10, when the prevalence of the delta variant was 85.3%. By the week of August 28, when the prevalence of the delta variant was 99.6%, the effectiveness was 74.2% (range, 63.4 to 86.8). Effectiveness against hospitalization with Covid-19 among adults 18 to 64 years of age remained almost exclusively greater than 86%, with no apparent time trend. Effectiveness declined from May through August among persons 65 years of age or older who had received BNT162b2 (from 94.8 to 88.6%) or mRNA-1273 (from 97.1 to 93.7%). The effectiveness of Ad26.COV2.S was lower than that of the other vaccines, with no trend observed over time (range, 80.0 to 90.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of the three vaccines against Covid-19 declined after the delta variant became predominant. The effectiveness against hospitalization remained high, with modest declines limited to BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 recipients 65 years of age or older.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.

BACKGROUND: In July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient. METHODS: We adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency. RESULTS: Despite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure, and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage. CONCLUSIONS: In countries such as the United States that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but nonzero risk of causing paralysis in nonimmune individuals.

Estimated Number of People Who Inject Drugs in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Public health data signal increases in the number of people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States during the past decade. An updated PWID population size estimate is critical for informing interventions and policies aiming to reduce injection-associated infections and overdose, as well as to provide a baseline for assessments of pandemic-related changes in injection drug use. METHODS: We used a modified multiplier approach to estimate the number of adults who injected drugs in the United States in 2018. We deduced the estimated number of nonfatal overdose events among PWID from 2 of our previously published estimates: the number of injection-involved overdose deaths and the meta-analyzed ratio of nonfatal to fatal overdose. The number of nonfatal overdose events was divided by prevalence of nonfatal overdose among current PWID for a population size estimate. RESULTS: There were an estimated 3 694 500 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 872 700-7 273 300) PWID in the United States in 2018, representing 1.46% (95% CI, .74-2.87) of the adult population. The estimated prevalence of injection drug use was highest among males (2.1%; 95% CI, 1.1-4.2), non-Hispanic Whites (1.8%; 95% CI, .9-3.6), and adults aged 18-39 years (1.8%; 95% CI, .9-3.6). CONCLUSIONS: Using transparent, replicable methods and largely publicly available data, we provide the first update to the number of people who inject drugs in the United States in nearly 10 years. Findings suggest the population size of PWID has substantially grown in the past decade and that prevention services for PWID should be proportionally increased.

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children in New York State.

BACKGROUND: A multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is associated with coronavirus disease 2019. The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) established active, statewide surveillance to describe hospitalized patients with the syndrome. METHODS: Hospitals in New York State reported cases of Kawasaki's disease, toxic shock syndrome, myocarditis, and potential MIS-C in hospitalized patients younger than 21 years of age and sent medical records to the NYSDOH. We carried out descriptive analyses that summarized the clinical presentation, complications, and outcomes of patients who met the NYSDOH case definition for MIS-C between March 1 and May 10, 2020. RESULTS: As of May 10, 2020, a total of 191 potential cases were reported to the NYSDOH. Of 95 patients with confirmed MIS-C (laboratory-confirmed acute or recent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2] infection) and 4 with suspected MIS-C (met clinical and epidemiologic criteria), 53 (54%) were male; 31 of 78 (40%) were black, and 31 of 85 (36%) were Hispanic. A total of 31 patients (31%) were 0 to 5 years of age, 42 (42%) were 6 to 12 years of age, and 26 (26%) were 13 to 20 years of age. All presented with subjective fever or chills; 97% had tachycardia, 80% had gastrointestinal symptoms, 60% had rash, 56% had conjunctival injection, and 27% had mucosal changes. Elevated levels of C-reactive protein, d-dimer, and troponin were found in 100%, 91%, and 71% of the patients, respectively; 62% received vasopressor support, 53% had evidence of myocarditis, 80% were admitted to an intensive care unit, and 2 died. The median length of hospital stay was 6 days. CONCLUSIONS: The emergence of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children in New York State coincided with widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission; this hyperinflammatory syndrome with dermatologic, mucocutaneous, and gastrointestinal manifestations was associated with cardiac dysfunction.

Effectiveness of JYNNEOS Vaccine Against Diagnosed Mpox Infection - New York, 2022.

In 2022, an international Monkeypox virus outbreak, characterized by transmission primarily through sexual contact among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), resulted in 375 monkeypox (mpox) cases in the state of New York outside of New York City (NYC).*,† The JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic), licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) against mpox as a 2-dose series, with doses administered 4 weeks apart,§ was deployed in a national vaccination campaign.¶ Before this outbreak, evidence to support vaccine effectiveness (VE) against mpox was based on human immunologic and animal challenge studies (1-3). New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) conducted a case-control study to estimate JYNNEOS VE against diagnosed mpox in New York residents outside of NYC, using data from systematic surveillance reporting. A case-patient was defined as a man aged ≥18 years who received a diagnosis of mpox during July 24-October 31, 2022. Contemporaneous control patients were men aged ≥18 years with diagnosed rectal gonorrhea or primary syphilis and a history of male-to-male sexual contact, without mpox. Case-patients and control patients were matched to records in state immunization systems. JYNNEOS VE was estimated as 1 - odds ratio (OR) x 100, and JYNNEOS vaccination status (vaccinated versus unvaccinated) at the time of diagnosis was compared, using conditional logistic regression models that adjusted for week of diagnosis, region, patient age, and patient race and ethnicity. Among 252 eligible mpox case-patients and 255 control patients, the adjusted VE of 1 dose (received ≥14 days earlier) or 2 doses combined was 75.7% (95% CI = 48.5%-88.5%); the VE for 1 dose was 68.1% (95% CI = 24.9%-86.5%) and for 2 doses was 88.5% (95% CI = 44.1%-97.6%). These findings support recommended 2-dose JYNNEOS vaccination consistent with CDC and NYSDOH guidance.

Assessing the Cost-Utility of Universal Hepatitis B Vaccination Among Adults.

BACKGROUND: Although effective against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis B (HepB) vaccination is only recommended for infants, children, and adults at higher risk. We conducted an economic evaluation of universal HepB vaccination among US adults. METHODS: Using a decision analytic model with Markov disease progression, we compared current vaccination recommendations (baseline) with either 3-dose or 2-dose universal HepB vaccination (intervention strategies). In simulated modeling of 1 million adults distributed by age and risk groups, we quantified health benefits (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) and costs for each strategy. Multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analyses identified key inputs. All costs reported in 2019 US dollars. RESULTS: With incremental base-case vaccination coverage up to 50% among persons at lower risk and 0% increment among persons at higher risk, each of 2 intervention strategies averted nearly one-quarter of acute HBV infections (3-dose strategy, 24.8%; 2-dose strategy, 24.6%). Societal incremental cost per QALY gained of $152 722 (interquartile range, $119 113-$235 086) and $155 429 (interquartile range, $120 302-$242 226) were estimated for 3-dose and 2-dose strategies, respectively. Risk of acute HBV infection showed the strongest influence. CONCLUSIONS: Universal adult vaccination against HBV may be an appropriate strategy for reducing HBV incidence and improving resulting health outcomes.

Adjusting COVID-19 Seroprevalence Survey Results to Account for Test Sensitivity and Specificity.

Population-based seroprevalence surveys can provide useful estimates of the number of individuals previously infected with serious acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and still susceptible, as well as contribute to better estimates of the case-fatality rate and other measures of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. No serological test is 100% accurate, however, and the standard correction that epidemiologists use to adjust estimates relies on estimates of the test sensitivity and specificity often based on small validation studies. We have developed a fully Bayesian approach to adjust observed prevalence estimates for sensitivity and specificity. Application to a seroprevalence survey conducted in New York State in 2020 demonstrates that this approach results in more realistic-and narrower-credible intervals than the standard sensitivity analysis using confidence interval endpoints. In addition, the model permits incorporating data on the geographical distribution of reported case counts to create informative priors on the cumulative incidence to produce estimates and credible intervals for smaller geographic areas than often can be precisely estimated with seroprevalence surveys.

Epidemiology of HIV in the USA: epidemic burden, inequities, contexts, and responses.

The HIV epidemic in the USA began as a bicoastal epidemic focused in large cities but, over nearly four decades, the epidemiology of HIV has changed. Public health surveillance data can inform an understanding of the evolution of the HIV epidemic in terms of the populations and geographical areas most affected. We analysed publicly available HIV surveillance data and census data to describe: current HIV prevalence and new HIV diagnoses by region, race or ethnicity, and age; trends in HIV diagnoses over time by HIV acquisition risk and age; and the distribution of HIV prevalence by geographical area. We reviewed published literature to explore the reasons for the current distribution of HIV cases and important disparities in HIV prevalence. We identified opportunities to improve public health surveillance systems and uses of data for planning and monitoring public health responses. The current US HIV epidemic is marked by geographical concentration in the US South and profound disparities between regions and by race or ethnicity. Rural areas vary in HIV prevalence; rural areas in the South are more likely to have a high HIV prevalence than rural areas in other US Census regions. Ongoing disparities in HIV in the South are probably driven by the restricted expansion of Medicaid, health-care provider shortages, low health literacy, and HIV stigma. HIV diagnoses overall declined in 2009-18, but HIV diagnoses among individuals aged 25-34 years increased during the same period. HIV diagnoses decreased for all risk groups in 2009-18; among men who have sex with men (MSM), new diagnoses decreased overall and for White MSM, remained stable for Black MSM, and increased for Hispanic or Latino MSM. Surveillance data indicate profound and ongoing disparities in HIV cases, with disproportionate impact among people in the South, racial or ethnic minorities, and MSM.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccination strategies in high-impact settings for adults.

Adults at increased risk for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are recommended to receive vaccination. We conducted a cost utility analysis to evaluate approaches for implementing that recommendation in selected high-risk settings: community outreach events with a large proportion of immigrants, syringe service programs, substance use treatment centres, sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics, tuberculosis (TB) clinics and jails. We utilized a decision tree framework with a Markov disease progression model to compare quality adjusted life-years and cost in 2021 United States dollars from four strategies: a 3-dose vaccination regimen with prevaccination screening and testing (PVST; baseline comparison); PVST at the initial encounter followed by a 2-dose series (Intervention 1); PVST with the first dose of a 2-dose vaccination series at the initial encounter (Intervention 2); and a 2-dose vaccination series without PVST (Intervention 3). In all settings, Intervention 1 resulted in worse health outcomes compared with the baseline strategy. Intervention 2 averted incident chronic HBV infections in all settings (range -9.4% in TB clinics, -14.8% in syringe service programs) and was a cost-saving approach in settings with higher risk of infection (i.e. jails, -$266 per person; syringe service programs, -$597; substance use treatment centres, -$130). Providing a 2-dose vaccination series without any screening (Intervention 3) averted incident HBV infections and was cost-saving in all settings but resulted in more HBV-related deaths in settings with higher HBV prevalence. These results demonstrate a 2-dose vaccine series is a cost-effective approach in these high-impact settings, even if prevaccination testing is not possible.

A cross-sectional study of hepatitis C prevalence and correlates among persons who inject drugs in rural and non-rural communities.

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) have been experiencing a higher burden of new hepatitis C (HCV) due to the opioid epidemic. The greatest increases in injection have been in rural communities. However, less is known about the prevalence of HCV or its risk factors in rural compared to non-rural communities. This study compared HCV infection history, current infection, and associated behavioural and sociodemographic correlates among PWID recruited from rural and non-rural communities from Upstate New York (NY). This cross-sectional study recruited 309 PWID, using respondent-driven sampling. Blood samples were collected through finger stick for HCV antibody and RNA tests. A survey was also self-administered for HCV infection history, sociodemographics and behavioural correlates to compare by setting rurality. HCV seropositivity was significantly higher among PWID from rural than non-rural communities (71.0% vs. 46.8%), as was current infection (41.4% vs. 25.9%). High levels of past year syringe (44.4%) and equipment (62.2%) sharing were reported. Factors associated with infection history include syringe service program utilization, non-Hispanic white race, sharing needles and methamphetamine injection, which was higher in rural vs. non-rural communities (38.5% vs. 15.5%). HCV burden among PWID appears higher in rural than non-rural communities and may be increasing possibly due to greater levels of methamphetamine injection. On-going systematic surveillance of HCV prevalence and correlates is crucial to respond to the changing opioid epidemic landscape. Additionally, improving access to harm reduction services, especially with special focus on stimulants, may be important to reduce HCV prevalence among PWID in rural settings.

County-Level Variation in Hepatitis C Virus Mortality and Trends in the United States, 2005-2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since 2013, the national hepatitis C virus (HCV) death rate has steadily declined, but this decline has not been quantified or described on a local level. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We estimated county-level HCV death rates and assessed trends in HCV mortality from 2005 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017. We used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and used a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized HCV death rates from 2005 through 2017 for 3,115 U.S. counties. Additionally, we estimated county-level, age-standardized rates for persons <40 and 40+ years of age. We used log-linear regression models to estimate the average annual percent change in HCV mortality during periods of interest and compared county-level trends with national trends. Nationally, the age-adjusted HCV death rate peaked in 2013 at 5.20 HCV deaths per 100,000 persons (95% credible interval [CI], 5.12, 5.26) before decreasing to 4.34 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 4.28, 4.41) in 2017 (average annual percent change = -4.69; 95% CI, -5.01, -4.33). County-level rates revealed heterogeneity in HCV mortality (2017 median rate = 3.6; interdecile range, 2.19, 6.77), with the highest rates being concentrated in the West, Southwest, Appalachia, and northern Florida. Between 2013 and 2017, HCV mortality decreased in 80.0% (n = 2,274) of all U.S. counties with a reliable trend estimate, with 25.8% (n = 803) of all counties experiencing a decrease larger than the national decline. CONCLUSIONS: Although many counties have experienced a shift in HCV mortality trends since 2013, the magnitude and composition of that shift have varied by place. These data provide a better understanding of geographic differences in HCV mortality and can be used by local jurisdictions to evaluate HCV mortality in their areas relative to surrounding areas and the nation.

Variation in Patterns of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Primary and Secondary Syphilis Diagnosis Rates Among Heterosexually Active Women by Region and Age Group in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Syphilis rates have increased substantially over the past decade. Women are an important population because of negative sequalae and adverse maternal outcomes including congenital syphilis. We assessed whether racial and ethnic disparities in primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis among heterosexually active women differ by region and age group. METHODS: We synthesized 4 national surveys to estimate numbers of heterosexually active women in the United States from 2014 to 2018 by region, race and ethnicity, and age group (18-24, 25-29, 30-44, and ≥45 years). We calculated annual P&S syphilis diagnosis rates, assessing disparities with rate differences and rate ratios comparing White, Hispanic, and Black heterosexually active women. RESULTS: Nationally, annual rates were 6.42 and 2.20 times as high among Black and Hispanic than among White heterosexually active women (10.99, 3.77, and 1.71 per 100,000, respectively). Younger women experienced a disproportionate burden of P&S syphilis and the highest disparities. Regionally, the Northeast had the highest Black-White and Hispanic-White disparities using a relative disparity measure (relative rate), and the West had the highest disparities using an absolute disparity measure (rate difference). CONCLUSIONS: To meet the racial and ethnic disparity goals of the Sexually Transmitted Infections National Strategic Plan, tailored local interventions that address the social and structural factors associated with disparities are needed for different age groups.

COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis - California and New York, May-November 2021.

By November 30, 2021, approximately 130,781 COVID-19-associated deaths, one in six of all U.S. deaths from COVID-19, had occurred in California and New York.* COVID-19 vaccination protects against infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), associated severe illness, and death (1,2); among those who survive, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection also confers protection against severe outcomes in the event of reinfection (3,4). The relative magnitude and duration of infection- and vaccine-derived protection, alone and together, can guide public health planning and epidemic forecasting. To examine the impact of primary COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates, statewide testing, surveillance, and COVID-19 immunization data from California and New York (which account for 18% of the U.S. population) were analyzed. Four cohorts of adults aged ≥18 years were considered: persons who were 1) unvaccinated with no previous laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, 2) vaccinated (14 days after completion of a primary COVID-19 vaccination series) with no previous COVID-19 diagnosis, 3) unvaccinated with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and 4) vaccinated with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. Age-adjusted hazard rates of incident laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in both states were compared among cohorts, and in California, hospitalizations during May 30-November 20, 2021, were also compared. During the study period, COVID-19 incidence in both states was highest among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis compared with that among the other three groups. During the week beginning May 30, 2021, compared with COVID-19 case rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, COVID-19 case rates were 19.9-fold (California) and 18.4-fold (New York) lower among vaccinated persons without a previous diagnosis; 7.2-fold (California) and 9.9-fold lower (New York) among unvaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis; and 9.6-fold (California) and 8.5-fold lower (New York) among vaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the same period, compared with hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization rates in California followed a similar pattern. These relationships changed after the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant became predominant (i.e., accounted for >50% of sequenced isolates) in late June and July. By the week beginning October 3, compared with COVID-19 cases rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, case rates among vaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were 6.2-fold (California) and 4.5-fold (New York) lower; rates were substantially lower among both groups with previous COVID-19 diagnoses, including 29.0-fold (California) and 14.7-fold lower (New York) among unvaccinated persons with a previous diagnosis, and 32.5-fold (California) and 19.8-fold lower (New York) among vaccinated persons with a previous diagnosis of COVID-19. During the same period, compared with hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization rates in California followed a similar pattern. These results demonstrate that vaccination protects against COVID-19 and related hospitalization, and that surviving a previous infection protects against a reinfection and related hospitalization. Importantly, infection-derived protection was higher after the Delta variant became predominant, a time when vaccine-induced immunity for many persons declined because of immune evasion and immunologic waning (2,5,6). Similar cohort data accounting for booster doses needs to be assessed, as new variants, including Omicron, circulate. Although the epidemiology of COVID-19 might change with the emergence of new variants, vaccination remains the safest strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated complications; all eligible persons should be up to date with COVID-19 vaccination. Additional recommendations for vaccine doses might be warranted in the future as the virus and immunity levels change.

Public Health Response to a Case of Paralytic Poliomyelitis in an Unvaccinated Person and Detection of Poliovirus in Wastewater - New York, June-August 2022.

On July 18, 2022, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) notified CDC of detection of poliovirus type 2 in stool specimens from an unvaccinated immunocompetent young adult from Rockland County, New York, who was experiencing acute flaccid weakness. The patient initially experienced fever, neck stiffness, gastrointestinal symptoms, and limb weakness. The patient was hospitalized with possible acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) was detected in stool specimens obtained on days 11 and 12 after initial symptom onset. To date, related Sabin-like type 2 polioviruses have been detected in wastewater* in the patient's county of residence and in neighboring Orange County up to 25 days before (from samples originally collected for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring) and 41 days after the patient's symptom onset. The last U.S. case of polio caused by wild poliovirus occurred in 1979, and the World Health Organization Region of the Americas was declared polio-free in 1994. This report describes the second identification of community transmission of poliovirus in the United States since 1979; the previous instance, in 2005, was a type 1 VDPV (1). The occurrence of this case, combined with the identification of poliovirus in wastewater in neighboring Orange County, underscores the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent paralytic polio in persons of all ages.

Wastewater Testing and Detection of Poliovirus Type 2 Genetically Linked to Virus Isolated from a Paralytic Polio Case - New York, March 9-October 11, 2022.

In July 2022, a case of paralytic poliomyelitis resulting from infection with vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) type 2 (VDPV2)§ was confirmed in an unvaccinated adult resident of Rockland County, New York (1). As of August 10, 2022, poliovirus type 2 (PV2)¶ genetically linked to this VDPV2 had been detected in wastewater** in Rockland County and neighboring Orange County (1). This report describes the results of additional poliovirus testing of wastewater samples collected during March 9-October 11, 2022, and tested as of October 20, 2022, from 48 sewersheds (the community area served by a wastewater collection system) serving parts of Rockland County and 12 surrounding counties. Among 1,076 wastewater samples collected, 89 (8.3%) from 10 sewersheds tested positive for PV2. As part of a broad epidemiologic investigation, wastewater testing can provide information about where poliovirus might be circulating in a community in which a paralytic case has been identified; however, the most important public health actions for preventing paralytic poliomyelitis in the United States remain ongoing case detection through national acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) surveillance†† and improving vaccination coverage in undervaccinated communities. Although most persons in the United States are sufficiently immunized, unvaccinated or undervaccinated persons living or working in Kings, Orange, Queens, Rockland, or Sullivan counties, New York should complete the polio vaccination series as soon as possible.

From declining PrEP to PrEP initiation as "first nature" - what changes PrEP initiation decisions among young, Black MSM.

Young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV, and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake has been slow. Decisions regarding PrEP initiation change in different life contexts over time. Our YBMSM cohort study found about 1/3 of those who initially declined PrEP subsequently changed and initiated PrEP care. This study explores the process of their PrEP decision changes. The study interviewed participants who initially voiced strong and clear reservations about PrEP, but subsequently started PrEP 1-14 months later. In "review/renew" follow-up interviews, participants reviewed their past statements from a time they declined PrEP, and renew their understanding regarding perspective and behavioral change. Analyzing the data with a positive deviance framework, we found that shifting the decisional balance in favor of PrEP initiation only required change in some areas. There were not consistent factors that prevented or facilitated PrEP uptake. Instead, YBMSM initiated PrEP while maintaining an array of substantial reservations. PrEP initiation discussions should be viewed by health practitioners as a longitudinal process, and routine PrEP offers should be made over time. To optimally facilitate PrEP use among YBMSM, the diverse benefits of PrEP should be emphasized rather than focusing on allaying all concerns.

Monitoring Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Through Trends in Influenza-like Illness, Laboratory-confirmed Influenza, and COVID-19-New York State, Excluding New York City, 1 January 2020-12 April 2020.

Innovative monitoring approaches are needed to track the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic and potentially assess the impact of community mitigation interventions. We present temporal data on influenza-like illness, influenza diagnosis, and COVID-19 cases for all 4 regions of New York State through the first 6 weeks of the outbreak.

Persistence of Zika Virus in Body Fluids - Final Report.

BACKGROUND: To estimate the frequency and duration of detectable Zika virus (ZIKV) RNA in human body fluids, we prospectively assessed a cohort of newly infected participants in Puerto Rico. METHODS: We evaluated samples obtained from 150 participants (including 55 men) in whom ZIKV RNA was detected on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay in urine or blood in an enhanced arboviral clinical surveillance site. We collected serum, urine, saliva, semen, and vaginal secretions weekly for the first month and then at 2, 4, and 6 months. All specimens were tested by means of RT-PCR, and serum was tested with the use of anti-ZIKV IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Among the participants with ZIKV RNA in any specimen at week 4, biweekly collection continued until all specimens tested negative. We used parametric Weibull regression models to estimate the time until the loss of ZIKV RNA detection in each body fluid and reported the findings in medians and 95th percentiles. RESULTS: The medians and 95th percentiles for the time until the loss of ZIKV RNA detection were 14 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 11 to 17) and 54 days (95% CI, 43 to 64), respectively, in serum; 8 days (95% CI, 6 to 10) and 39 days (95% CI, 31 to 47) in urine; and 34 days (95% CI, 28 to 41) and 81 days (95% CI, 64 to 98) in semen. Few participants had detectable ZIKV RNA in saliva or vaginal secretions. CONCLUSIONS: The prolonged time until ZIKV RNA clearance in serum in this study may have implications for the diagnosis and prevention of ZIKV infection. Current sexual-prevention guidelines recommend that men use condoms or abstain from sex for 6 months after ZIKV exposure; in 95% of the men in this study, ZIKV RNA was cleared from semen after about 3 months. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Impacts of Changing Sexual Behavior on Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Burden Among US High School Students, 2007 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Rates of adolescent sexual activity have long been declining in the United States. We sought to estimate the number of cases of gonorrhea and chlamydia averted over 1 decade associated with these declines and associated costs saved. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey of US high school students from 2007 to 2017 and combined it with epidemiological estimates drawn from the literature to parameterize a dynamic population transmission model. We compared transmissions from observed behavioral trends with a counterfactual scenario that assumed sexual behaviors from 2007 remained constant for 10 years. We calculated outcomes by age and for 3 racial/ethnic groups (Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White adolescents) who vary on underlying burden and amount of behavioral change. RESULTS: We estimated 1,118,483 cases of chlamydia and 214,762 cases of gonorrhea were averted (19.5% of burden across all ages). This yielded $474 million (2017 dollars) savings in medical costs over the decade. The largest number of averted cases (767,543) was among Black adolescents, but the largest proportion (28.7%) was among Hispanic adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: Whatever its origins, changing sexual behavior among adolescents results in large estimated reductions in STI burden and medical costs relative to previous cohorts. Although diagnoses among adolescents have not declined at this rate, multiple explanations could make these apparently divergent trends consistent. Efforts to continue supporting effective sex education in and out of school along with STI screening for adolescents should reinforce these gains.

Effects of Condom Use on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Among Adolescent Sexual Minority Males in the United States: A Mixed Epidemiology and Epidemic Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: We examined condom use patterns and potential population-level effects of a hypothetical condom intervention on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM). METHODS: Using 3 data sets: national Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2015 to 2017 (YRBS-National), local YRBS data from 8 jurisdictions with sex of partner questions from 2011 to 2017 (YRBS-Trends), and American Men's Internet Survey (AMIS) 2014 to 2017, we assessed associations of condom use with year, age, and race/ethnicity among sexually active ASMM. Using a stochastic agent-based network epidemic model, structured and parameterized based on the above analyses, we calculated the percent of HIV infections averted over 10 years among ASMM ages 13 to 18 years by an intervention that increased condom use by 37% for 5 years and was delivered to 62% of ASMM at age 14 years. RESULTS: In YRBS, 51.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41.3-62.3%) and 37.9% (95% CI, 32.7-42.3%) reported condom use at last sexual intercourse in national and trend data sets, respectively. In AMIS, 47.3% (95% CI, 44.6-49.9%) reported condom use at last anal sex with a male partner. Temporal trends were not observed in any data set (P > 0.1). Condom use varied significantly by age in YRBS-National (P < 0.0001) and YRBS-Trends (P = 0.032) with 13- to 15-year-olds reporting the lowest use in both; age differences were not significant in AMIS (P = 0.919). Our hypothetical intervention averted a mean of 9.0% (95% simulation interval, -5.4% to 21.2%) of infections among ASMM. CONCLUSIONS: Condom use among ASMM is low and appears to have remained stable during 2011 to 2017. Modeling suggests that condom use increases, consistent with previous interventions, have potential to avert 1 in 11 new HIV infections among ASMM.