A Pilot Study Using Machine Learning Algorithms and Wearable Technology for the Early Detection of Postoperative Complications After Cardiothoracic Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether a machine learning algorithm (i.e. the "NightSignal" algorithm) can be used for the detection of postoperative complications prior to symptom onset after cardiothoracic surgery. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Methods that enable the early detection of postoperative complications after cardiothoracic surgery are needed. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study conducted from July 2021 to February 2023 at a single academic tertiary care hospital. Patients aged 18 years or older scheduled to undergo cardiothoracic surgery were recruited. Study participants wore a Fitbit watch continuously for at least 1 week preoperatively and up to 90-days postoperatively. The ability of the NightSignal algorithm-which was previously developed for the early detection of Covid-19-to detect postoperative complications was evaluated. The primary outcomes were algorithm sensitivity and specificity for postoperative event detection. RESULTS: A total of 56 patients undergoing cardiothoracic surgery met inclusion criteria, of which 24 (42.9%) underwent thoracic operations and 32 (57.1%) underwent cardiac operations. The median age was 62 (IQR: 51-68) years and 30 (53.6%) patients were female. The NightSignal algorithm detected 17 of the 21 postoperative events a median of 2 (IQR: 1-3) days prior to symptom onset, representing a sensitivity of 81%. The specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of the algorithm for the detection of postoperative events were 75%, 97%, and 28%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning analysis of biometric data collected from wearable devices has the potential to detect postoperative complications-prior to symptom onset-after cardiothoracic surgery.

Shortage of thoracic surgeons in the United States: Implications for treatment and survival for stage I lung cancer patients.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether there is a shortage of thoracic surgeons in the United States and whether any potential shortage is impacting lung cancer treatment and outcomes. DESIGN: Using the US Area Health Resources File and Surveillance Epidemiology End Results database, we assessed the number of cardiothoracic surgeons per 100,000 people and the number of stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnoses in the US in 2010 versus 2018. Changes in the percentage of patients diagnosed with stage I NSCLC who underwent surgery and stereotactic body radiotherapy and changes in overall survival of patients with stage I NSCLC from 2010 to 2018 in the National Cancer Database were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2018, the number of cardiothoracic surgeons per 100,000 people in the US decreased by 12% (P < .001), while the number of patients diagnosed with stage I NSCLC increased by 40% (P < .001). Over the same period, the percentage of patients who underwent surgery for stage I NSCLC decreased from 81.0% to 72.3% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.63); this decrease was similarly seen in a subgroup of young and otherwise healthy patients. Greater decreases in the percentage of patients who underwent surgery in nonmetropolitan and underserved regions corresponded with worse improvements in survival among patients in these regions from 2010 to 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Recent declines in the US cardiothoracic surgery workforce may have led to significantly fewer patients undergoing surgery for stage I NSCLC and worsening disparities in survival between different patient populations.

The Role of Salvage Resection After Definitive Radiation Therapy for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated outcomes of patients who undergo extended delay to resection after definitive radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Perioperative outcomes and 5-year overall survival of patients with NSCLC who underwent definitive radiation therapy, followed by resection, from 2004 to 2020 in the National Cancer Database were evaluated. Patients who underwent resection >180 days after the initiation of radiation therapy (including any external beam therapy at a total dose of >60 Gy) were included in the analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted by operation type and pathologic nodal status. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2020, 293 patients had an extended delay to resection after definitive radiation therapy. The clinical stage distribution was stage I to II in 53 patients (18.1%), stage IIIA in 111 (37.9%), stage IIIB in 106 (36.2%), stage IIIC in 13 (4.4%), and stage IV in 10 (3.4%). Median dose of radiation therapy received was 64.8 Gy (interquartile range, 60.0-66.6 Gy). Median days from radiation therapy to resection were 221.0 (interquartile range, 193.0-287.0) days. Lobectomy (64.5%) was the most common operation, followed by pneumonectomy (17.1%) and wedge resection (7.5%). For wedge resection, lobectomy, and pneumonectomy, the 30-day readmission rate was 4.8%, 4.8%, and 8.3%, the 30-day mortality rate was 0%, 3.4%, and 6.4%, and the 90-day mortality rate was 0%, 6.2%, and 12.8%, respectively. Overall survival at 5 years for patients with pN0, pN1, and pN2 disease was 38.6% (95% CI, 30.0-47.2), 43.3% (95% CI, 16.3-67.9), and 24.0% (95% CI, 9.8-41.7), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this national analysis, extended delay to resection after definitive radiation therapy was associated with acceptable perioperative outcomes among a highly selected patient cohort.

Association of computed tomography screening with lung cancer stage shift and survival in the United States: quasi-experimental study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of the introduction of low dose computed tomography screening in 2013 on lung cancer stage shift, survival, and disparities in the stage of lung cancer diagnosed in the United States. DESIGN: Quasi-experimental study using Joinpoint modeling, multivariable ordinal logistic regression, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling. SETTING: US National Cancer Database and Surveillance Epidemiology End Results program database. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 45-80 years diagnosed as having non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual per cent change in percentage of stage I NSCLC diagnosed among patients aged 45-54 (ineligible for screening) and 55-80 (potentially eligible for screening), median all cause survival, and incidence of NSCLC; multivariable adjusted odds ratios for year-to-year changes in likelihood of having earlier stages of disease at diagnosis and multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for changes in hazard of death before versus after introduction of screening. RESULTS: The percentage of stage I NSCLC diagnosed among patients aged 55-80 did not significantly increase from 2010 to 2013 (from 27.8% to 29.4%) and then increased at 3.9% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 4.8%) per year from 2014 to 2018 (from 30.2% to 35.5%). In multivariable adjusted analysis, the increase in the odds per year of a patient having one lung cancer stage lower at diagnosis during the time period from 2014 to 2018 was 6.2% (multivariable adjusted odds ratio 1.062, 95% confidence interval 1.048 to 1.077; P<0.001) higher than the increase in the odds per year from 2010 to 2013. Similarly, the median all cause survival of patients aged 55-80 did not significantly increase from 2010 to 2013 (from 15.8 to 18.1 months), and then increased at 11.9% (8.9% to 15.0%) per year from 2014 to 2018 (from 19.7 to 28.2 months). In multivariable adjusted analysis, the hazard of death decreased significantly faster after 2014 compared with before 2014 (P<0.001). By 2018, stage I NSCLC was the predominant diagnosis among non-Hispanic white people and people living in the highest income or best educated regions. Non-white people and those living in lower income or less educated regions remained more likely to have stage IV disease at diagnosis. Increases in the detection of early stage disease in the US from 2014 to 2018 led to an estimated 10 100 averted deaths. CONCLUSIONS: A recent stage shift toward stage I NSCLC coincides with improved survival and the introduction of lung cancer screening. Non-white patients and those living in areas of greater deprivation had lower rates of stage I disease identified, highlighting the need for efforts to increase access to screening in the US.