A comparison of Bayesian and score methods for interval estimates of positive/negative likelihood ratios in support of diagnostic device performance evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR) are important metrics of accuracy for diagnostic devices with a binary output. However, the properties of Bayesian and frequentist interval estimators of PLR/NLR have not been extensively studied and compared. In this study, we explore the potential use of the Bayesian method for interval estimation of PLR/NLR, and, more broadly, for interval estimation of the ratio of two independent proportions. METHODS: We develop a Bayesian-based approach for interval estimation of PLR/NLR for use as a part of a diagnostic device performance evaluation. Our approach is applicable to a broader setting for interval estimation of any ratio of two independent proportions. We compare score and Bayesian interval estimators for the ratio of two proportions in terms of the coverage probability (CP) and expected interval width (EW) via extensive experiments and applications to two case studies. A supplementary experiment was also conducted to assess the performance of the proposed exact Bayesian method under different priors. RESULTS: Our experimental results show that the overall mean CP for Bayesian interval estimation is consistent with that for the score method (0.950 vs. 0.952), and the overall mean EW for Bayesian is shorter than that for score method (15.929 vs. 19.724). Application to two case studies showed that the intervals estimated using the Bayesian and frequentist approaches are very similar. DISCUSSION: Our numerical results indicate that the proposed Bayesian approach has a comparable CP performance with the score method while yielding higher precision (i.e. a shorter EW).

Recommendations towards standards for quantitative MRI (qMRI) and outstanding needs.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 5 Technical Efficacy: Stage 5 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2019.

Computer-assisted quantification of CD3+ T cells in follicular lymphoma.

The advance of high resolution digital scans of pathology slides allowed development of computer based image analysis algorithms that may help pathologists in IHC stains quantification. While very promising, these methods require further refinement before they are implemented in routine clinical setting. Particularly critical is to evaluate algorithm performance in a setting similar to current clinical practice. In this article, we present a pilot study that evaluates the use of a computerized cell quantification method in the clinical estimation of CD3 positive (CD3+) T cells in follicular lymphoma (FL). Our goal is to demonstrate the degree to which computerized quantification is comparable to the practice of estimation by a panel of expert pathologists. The computerized quantification method uses entropy based histogram thresholding to separate brown (CD3+) and blue (CD3-) regions after a color space transformation. A panel of four board-certified hematopathologists evaluated a database of 20 FL images using two different reading methods: visual estimation and manual marking of each CD3+ cell in the images. These image data and the readings provided a reference standard and the range of variability among readers. Sensitivity and specificity measures of the computer's segmentation of CD3+ and CD- T cell are recorded. For all four pathologists, mean sensitivity and specificity measures are 90.97 and 88.38%, respectively. The computerized quantification method agrees more with the manual cell marking as compared to the visual estimations. Statistical comparison between the computerized quantification method and the pathologist readings demonstrated good agreement with correlation coefficient values of 0.81 and 0.96 in terms of Lin's concordance correlation and Spearman's correlation coefficient, respectively. These values are higher than most of those calculated among the pathologists. In the future, the computerized quantification method may be used to investigate the relationship between the overall architectural pattern (i.e., interfollicular vs. follicular) and outcome measures (e.g., overall survival, and time to treatment). © 2017 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Classification of follicular lymphoma: the effect of computer aid on pathologists grading.

BACKGROUND: Follicular lymphoma (FL) is one of the most common lymphoid malignancies in the western world. FL cases are stratified into three histological grades based on the average centroblast count per high power field (HPF). The centroblast count is performed manually by the pathologist using an optical microscope and hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained tissue section. Although this is the current clinical practice, it suffers from high inter- and intra-observer variability and is vulnerable to sampling bias. METHODS: In this paper, we present a system, called Follicular Lymphoma Grading System (FLAGS), to assist the pathologist in grading FL cases. We also assess the effect of FLAGS on accuracy of expert and inexperienced readers. FLAGS automatically identifies possible HPFs for examination by analyzing H&E and CD20 stains, before classifying them into low or high risk categories. The pathologist is first asked to review the slides according to the current routine clinical practice, before being presented with FLAGS classification via color-coded map. The accuracy of the readers with and without FLAGS assistance is measured. RESULTS: FLAGS was used by four experts (board-certified hematopathologists) and seven pathology residents on 20 FL slides. Access to FLAGS improved overall reader accuracy with the biggest improvement seen among residents. An average AUC value of 0.75 was observed which generally indicates "acceptable" diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show that FLAGS can be useful in increasing the pathologists' accuracy in grading the tissue. To the best of our knowledge, this study measure, for the first time, the effect of computerized image analysis on pathologists' grading of follicular lymphoma. When fully developed, such systems have the potential to reduce sampling bias by examining an increased proportion of HPFs within follicle regions, as well as to reduce inter- and intra-reader variability.

Optimizing area under the ROC curve using semi-supervised learning.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a standard methodology to evaluate the performance of a binary classification system. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a performance metric that summarizes how well a classifier separates two classes. Traditional AUC optimization techniques are supervised learning methods that utilize only labeled data (i.e., the true class is known for all data) to train the classifiers. In this work, inspired by semi-supervised and transductive learning, we propose two new AUC optimization algorithms hereby referred to as semi-supervised learning receiver operating characteristic (SSLROC) algorithms, which utilize unlabeled test samples in classifier training to maximize AUC. Unlabeled samples are incorporated into the AUC optimization process, and their ranking relationships to labeled positive and negative training samples are considered as optimization constraints. The introduced test samples will cause the learned decision boundary in a multidimensional feature space to adapt not only to the distribution of labeled training data, but also to the distribution of unlabeled test data. We formulate the semi-supervised AUC optimization problem as a semi-definite programming problem based on the margin maximization theory. The proposed methods SSLROC1 (1-norm) and SSLROC2 (2-norm) were evaluated using 34 (determined by power analysis) randomly selected datasets from the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository. Wilcoxon signed rank tests showed that the proposed methods achieved significant improvement compared with state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methods were also applied to a CT colonography dataset for colonic polyp classification and showed promising results.

Discovering intrinsic properties of human observers' visual search and mathematical observers' scanning.

There is a lack of consensus in measuring observer performance in search tasks. To pursue a consensus, we set our goal to obtain metrics that are practical, meaningful, and predictive. We consider a metric practical if it can be implemented to measure human and computer observers' performance. To be meaningful, we propose to discover intrinsic properties of search observers and formulate the metrics to characterize these properties. If the discovered properties allow verifiable predictions, we consider them predictive. We propose a theory and a conjecture toward two intrinsic properties of search observers: rationality in classification as measured by the location-known-exactly (LKE) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and location uncertainty as measured by the effective set size (M*). These two properties are used to develop search models in both single-response and free-response search tasks. To confirm whether these properties are "intrinsic," we investigate their ability in predicting search performance of both human and scanning channelized Hotelling observers. In particular, for each observer, we designed experiments to measure the LKE-ROC curve and M*, which were then used to predict the same observer's performance in other search tasks. The predictions were then compared to the experimentally measured observer performance. Our results indicate that modeling the search performance using the LKE-ROC curve and M* leads to successful predictions in most cases.

Decision region analysis for generalizability of artificial intelligence models: estimating model generalizability in the case of cross-reactivity and population shift.

Purpose: Understanding an artificial intelligence (AI) model's ability to generalize to its target population is critical to ensuring the safe and effective usage of AI in medical devices. A traditional generalizability assessment relies on the availability of large, diverse datasets, which are difficult to obtain in many medical imaging applications. We present an approach for enhanced generalizability assessment by examining the decision space beyond the available testing data distribution. Approach: Vicinal distributions of virtual samples are generated by interpolating between triplets of test images. The generated virtual samples leverage the characteristics already in the test set, increasing the sample diversity while remaining close to the AI model's data manifold. We demonstrate the generalizability assessment approach on the non-clinical tasks of classifying patient sex, race, COVID status, and age group from chest x-rays. Results: Decision region composition analysis for generalizability indicated that a disproportionately large portion of the decision space belonged to a single "preferred" class for each task, despite comparable performance on the evaluation dataset. Evaluation using cross-reactivity and population shift strategies indicated a tendency to overpredict samples as belonging to the preferred class (e.g., COVID negative) for patients whose subgroup was not represented in the model development data. Conclusions: An analysis of an AI model's decision space has the potential to provide insight into model generalizability. Our approach uses the analysis of composition of the decision space to obtain an improved assessment of model generalizability in the case of limited test data.

MIDRC-MetricTree: a decision tree-based tool for recommending performance metrics in artificial intelligence-assisted medical image analysis.

Purpose: The Medical Imaging and Data Resource Center (MIDRC) was created to facilitate medical imaging machine learning (ML) research for tasks including early detection, diagnosis, prognosis, and assessment of treatment response related to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and beyond. The purpose of this work was to create a publicly available metrology resource to assist researchers in evaluating the performance of their medical image analysis ML algorithms. Approach: An interactive decision tree, called MIDRC-MetricTree, has been developed, organized by the type of task that the ML algorithm was trained to perform. The criteria for this decision tree were that (1) users can select information such as the type of task, the nature of the reference standard, and the type of the algorithm output and (2) based on the user input, recommendations are provided regarding appropriate performance evaluation approaches and metrics, including literature references and, when possible, links to publicly available software/code as well as short tutorial videos. Results: Five types of tasks were identified for the decision tree: (a) classification, (b) detection/localization, (c) segmentation, (d) time-to-event (TTE) analysis, and (e) estimation. As an example, the classification branch of the decision tree includes two-class (binary) and multiclass classification tasks and provides suggestions for methods, metrics, software/code recommendations, and literature references for situations where the algorithm produces either binary or non-binary (e.g., continuous) output and for reference standards with negligible or non-negligible variability and unreliability. Conclusions: The publicly available decision tree is a resource to assist researchers in conducting task-specific performance evaluations, including classification, detection/localization, segmentation, TTE, and estimation tasks.

Resource requirements to accelerate clinical applications of next generation sequencing and radiomics: Workshop commentary and review.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH)/U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Joint Leadership Council Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) and Radiomics Working Group (NGS&R WG) was formed by the NIH/FDA Joint Leadership Council to promote the development and validation of innovative NGS tests, radiomic tools, and associated data analysis and interpretation enhanced by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) technologies. A two-day workshop was held on September 29-30, 2021 to convene members of the scientific community to discuss how to overcome the "ground truth" gap that has frequently been acknowledged as one of the limiting factors impeding high-quality research, development, validation, and regulatory science in these fields. This report provides a summary of the resource gaps identified by the WG and attendees, highlights existing resources and the ways they can potentially be leveraged to accelerate growth in these fields, and presents opportunities to support NGS and radiomic tool development and validation using technologies such as AI and ML.

Artificial intelligence in medicine: mitigating risks and maximizing benefits via quality assurance, quality control, and acceptance testing.

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) tools in medicine poses challenges to existing clinical workflows. This commentary discusses the necessity of context-specific quality assurance (QA), emphasizing the need for robust QA measures with quality control (QC) procedures that encompass (1) acceptance testing (AT) before clinical use, (2) continuous QC monitoring, and (3) adequate user training. The discussion also covers essential components of AT and QA, illustrated with real-world examples. We also highlight what we see as the shared responsibility of manufacturers or vendors, regulators, healthcare systems, medical physicists, and clinicians to enact appropriate testing and oversight to ensure a safe and equitable transformation of medicine through AI.

AI and machine learning in medical imaging: key points from development to translation.

Innovation in medical imaging artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) demands extensive data collection, algorithmic advancements, and rigorous performance assessments encompassing aspects such as generalizability, uncertainty, bias, fairness, trustworthiness, and interpretability. Achieving widespread integration of AI/ML algorithms into diverse clinical tasks will demand a steadfast commitment to overcoming issues in model design, development, and performance assessment. The complexities of AI/ML clinical translation present substantial challenges, requiring engagement with relevant stakeholders, assessment of cost-effectiveness for user and patient benefit, timely dissemination of information relevant to robust functioning throughout the AI/ML lifecycle, consideration of regulatory compliance, and feedback loops for real-world performance evidence. This commentary addresses several hurdles for the development and adoption of AI/ML technologies in medical imaging. Comprehensive attention to these underlying and often subtle factors is critical not only for tackling the challenges but also for exploring novel opportunities for the advancement of AI in radiology.

Methodology for Good Machine Learning with Multi-Omics Data.

In 2020, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) started a 4-year scientific collaboration to approach complex new data modalities and advanced analytics. The scientific question was to find novel radio-genomics-based prognostic and predictive factors for HR+/HER- metastatic breast cancer under a Research Collaboration Agreement. This collaboration has been providing valuable insights to help successfully implement future scientific projects, particularly using artificial intelligence and machine learning. This tutorial aims to provide tangible guidelines for a multi-omics project that includes multidisciplinary expert teams, spanning across different institutions. We cover key ideas, such as "maintaining effective communication" and "following good data science practices," followed by the four steps of exploratory projects, namely (1) plan, (2) design, (3) develop, and (4) disseminate. We break each step into smaller concepts with strategies for implementation and provide illustrations from our collaboration to further give the readers actionable guidance.

On the assessment of the added value of new predictive biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: The surge in biomarker development calls for research on statistical evaluation methodology to rigorously assess emerging biomarkers and classification models. Recently, several authors reported the puzzling observation that, in assessing the added value of new biomarkers to existing ones in a logistic regression model, statistical significance of new predictor variables does not necessarily translate into a statistically significant increase in the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Vickers et al. concluded that this inconsistency is because AUC "has vastly inferior statistical properties," i.e., it is extremely conservative. This statement is based on simulations that misuse the DeLong et al. method. Our purpose is to provide a fair comparison of the likelihood ratio (LR) test and the Wald test versus diagnostic accuracy (AUC) tests. DISCUSSION: We present a test to compare ideal AUCs of nested linear discriminant functions via an F test. We compare it with the LR test and the Wald test for the logistic regression model. The null hypotheses of these three tests are equivalent; however, the F test is an exact test whereas the LR test and the Wald test are asymptotic tests. Our simulation shows that the F test has the nominal type I error even with a small sample size. Our results also indicate that the LR test and the Wald test have inflated type I errors when the sample size is small, while the type I error converges to the nominal value asymptotically with increasing sample size as expected. We further show that the DeLong et al. method tests a different hypothesis and has the nominal type I error when it is used within its designed scope. Finally, we summarize the pros and cons of all four methods we consider in this paper. SUMMARY: We show that there is nothing inherently less powerful or disagreeable about ROC analysis for showing the usefulness of new biomarkers or characterizing the performance of classification models. Each statistical method for assessing biomarkers and classification models has its own strengths and weaknesses. Investigators need to choose methods based on the assessment purpose, the biomarker development phase at which the assessment is being performed, the available patient data, and the validity of assumptions behind the methodologies.

Data drift in medical machine learning: implications and potential remedies.

Data drift refers to differences between the data used in training a machine learning (ML) model and that applied to the model in real-world operation. Medical ML systems can be exposed to various forms of data drift, including differences between the data sampled for training and used in clinical operation, differences between medical practices or context of use between training and clinical use, and time-related changes in patient populations, disease patterns, and data acquisition, to name a few. In this article, we first review the terminology used in ML literature related to data drift, define distinct types of drift, and discuss in detail potential causes within the context of medical applications with an emphasis on medical imaging. We then review the recent literature regarding the effects of data drift on medical ML systems, which overwhelmingly show that data drift can be a major cause for performance deterioration. We then discuss methods for monitoring data drift and mitigating its effects with an emphasis on pre- and post-deployment techniques. Some of the potential methods for drift detection and issues around model retraining when drift is detected are included. Based on our review, we find that data drift is a major concern in medical ML deployment and that more research is needed so that ML models can identify drift early, incorporate effective mitigation strategies and resist performance decay.

AFE-GAN: Synthesizing Electrocardiograms with Atrial Fibrillation Characteristics Using Generative Adversarial Networks.

Labeled ECG data in diseased state are, however, relatively scarce due to various concerns including patient privacy and low prevalence. We propose the first study in its kind that synthesizes atrial fibrillation (AF)-like ECG signals from normal ECG signals using the AFE-GAN, a generative adversarial network. Our AFE-GAN adjusts both beat morphology and rhythm variability when generating the atrial fibrillation-like ECG signals. Two publicly available arrhythmia detectors classified 72.4% and 77.2% of our generated signals as AF in a four-class (normal, AF, other abnormal, noisy) classification. This work shows the feasibility to synthesize abnormal ECG signals from normal ECG signals.Clinical significance - The AF ECG signal generated with our AFE-GAN has the potential to be used as training materials for health practitioners or be used as class-balance supplements for training automatic AF detectors.

Semi-supervised training using cooperative labeling of weakly annotated data for nodule detection in chest CT.

PURPOSE: Machine learning algorithms are best trained with large quantities of accurately annotated samples. While natural scene images can often be labeled relatively cheaply and at large scale, obtaining accurate annotations for medical images is both time consuming and expensive. In this study, we propose a cooperative labeling method that allows us to make use of weakly annotated medical imaging data for the training of a machine learning algorithm. As most clinically produced data are weakly-annotated - produced for use by humans rather than machines and lacking information machine learning depends upon - this approach allows us to incorporate a wider range of clinical data and thereby increase the training set size. METHODS: Our pseudo-labeling method consists of multiple stages. In the first stage, a previously established network is trained using a limited number of samples with high-quality expert-produced annotations. This network is used to generate annotations for a separate larger dataset that contains only weakly annotated scans. In the second stage, by cross-checking the two types of annotations against each other, we obtain higher-fidelity annotations. In the third stage, we extract training data from the weakly annotated scans, and combine it with the fully annotated data, producing a larger training dataset. We use this larger dataset to develop a computer-aided detection (CADe) system for nodule detection in chest CT. RESULTS: We evaluated the proposed approach by presenting the network with different numbers of expert-annotated scans in training and then testing the CADe using an independent expert-annotated dataset. We demonstrate that when availability of expert annotations is severely limited, the inclusion of weakly-labeled data leads to a 5% improvement in the competitive performance metric (CPM), defined as the average of sensitivities at different false-positive rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed approach can effectively merge a weakly-annotated dataset with a small, well-annotated dataset for algorithm training. This approach can help enlarge limited training data by leveraging the large amount of weakly labeled data typically generated in clinical image interpretation.

Sequestration of imaging studies in MIDRC: stratified sampling to balance demographic characteristics of patients in a multi-institutional data commons.

Purpose: The Medical Imaging and Data Resource Center (MIDRC) is a multi-institutional effort to accelerate medical imaging machine intelligence research and create a publicly available image repository/commons as well as a sequestered commons for performance evaluation and benchmarking of algorithms. After de-identification, approximately 80% of the medical images and associated metadata become part of the open commons and 20% are sequestered from the open commons. To ensure that both commons are representative of the population available, we introduced a stratified sampling method to balance the demographic characteristics across the two datasets. Approach: Our method uses multi-dimensional stratified sampling where several demographic variables of interest are sequentially used to separate the data into individual strata, each representing a unique combination of variables. Within each resulting stratum, patients are assigned to the open or sequestered commons. This algorithm was used on an example dataset containing 5000 patients using the variables of race, age, sex at birth, ethnicity, COVID-19 status, and image modality and compared resulting demographic distributions to naïve random sampling of the dataset over 2000 independent trials. Results: Resulting prevalence of each demographic variable matched the prevalence from the input dataset within one standard deviation. Mann-Whitney U test results supported the hypothesis that sequestration by stratified sampling provided more balanced subsets than naïve randomization, except for demographic subcategories with very low prevalence. Conclusions: The developed multi-dimensional stratified sampling algorithm can partition a large dataset while maintaining balance across several variables, superior to the balance achieved from naïve randomization.

Regulatory considerations for medical imaging AI/ML devices in the United States: concepts and challenges.

Purpose: To introduce developers to medical device regulatory processes and data considerations in artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) device submissions and to discuss ongoing AI/ML-related regulatory challenges and activities. Approach: AI/ML technologies are being used in an increasing number of medical imaging devices, and the fast evolution of these technologies presents novel regulatory challenges. We provide AI/ML developers with an introduction to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory concepts, processes, and fundamental assessments for a wide range of medical imaging AI/ML device types. Results: The device type for an AI/ML device and appropriate premarket regulatory pathway is based on the level of risk associated with the device and informed by both its technological characteristics and intended use. AI/ML device submissions contain a wide array of information and testing to facilitate the review process with the model description, data, nonclinical testing, and multi-reader multi-case testing being critical aspects of the AI/ML device review process for many AI/ML device submissions. The agency is also involved in AI/ML-related activities that support guidance document development, good machine learning practice development, AI/ML transparency, AI/ML regulatory research, and real-world performance assessment. Conclusion: FDA's AI/ML regulatory and scientific efforts support the joint goals of ensuring patients have access to safe and effective AI/ML devices over the entire device lifecycle and stimulating medical AI/ML innovation.