Mining plant phenology records from Kanazawa, Japan in the 1807-1838 Kakuson Diary.

Mining the various records of plant phenology before the era of modern weather observations is an important but challenging task. We mined descriptions of plant phenology in Kanazawa, Japan, during the first half of the nineteenth century in the Kakuson Diary. We retrieved records of full bloom of 28 plant species, appearance of 31 seasonal foods, and peak leaf colouring. In particular, we found more than 10 years of records of plum, peach, cherry blossoms, udo, and bamboo shoots in spring; watermelon in summer; and persimmon, chestnut, and peak leaf colouring in autumn. The records suggest that spring phenology during 1807 to 1838 was later and autumn phenology was earlier than now. Despite spatio-temporal uncertainty in records in old diaries, we need to mine records of plant phenology in more old diaries and publish them in English.

How potentially predictable are midlatitude ocean currents?

Predictability of atmospheric variability is known to be limited owing to significant uncertainty that arises from intrinsic variability generated independently of external forcing and/or boundary conditions. Observed atmospheric variability is therefore regarded as just a single realization among different dynamical states that could occur. In contrast, subject to wind, thermal and fresh-water forcing at the surface, the ocean circulation has been considered to be rather deterministic under the prescribed atmospheric forcing, and it still remains unknown how uncertain the upper-ocean circulation variability is. This study evaluates how much uncertainty the oceanic interannual variability can potentially have, through multiple simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by the observed interannually-varying atmospheric forcing under slightly different conditions. These ensemble "hindcast" experiments have revealed substantial uncertainty due to intrinsic variability in the extratropical ocean circulation that limits potential predictability of its interannual variability, especially along the strong western boundary currents (WBCs) in mid-latitudes, including the Kuroshio and its eastward extention. The intrinsic variability also greatly limits potential predictability of meso-scale oceanic eddy activity. These findings suggest that multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for understanding and predicting variability in the WBCs, which are important for weather and climate variability and marine ecosystems.

Impact of oceanic-scale interactions on the seasonal modulation of ocean dynamics by the atmosphere.

Ocean eddies (with a size of 100-300 km), ubiquitous in satellite observations, are known to represent about 80% of the total ocean kinetic energy. Recent studies have pointed out the unexpected role of smaller oceanic structures (with 1-50 km scales) in generating and sustaining these eddies. The interpretation proposed so far invokes the internal instability resulting from the large-scale interaction between upper and interior oceanic layers. Here we show, using a new high-resolution simulation of the realistic North Pacific Ocean, that ocean eddies are instead sustained by a different process that involves small-scale mixed-layer instabilities set up by large-scale atmospheric forcing in winter. This leads to a seasonal evolution of the eddy kinetic energy in a very large part of this ocean, with an amplitude varying by a factor almost equal to 2. Perspectives in terms of the impacts on climate dynamics and future satellite observational systems are briefly discussed.