Reporting and Description of Research Methodology in Studies Estimating Effects of Firearm Policies.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about which firearm policies work, to what extent, and for whom is hotly debated, perhaps partly because variation in research methodology has produced mixed and inconclusive effect estimates. We conducted a scoping review of firearm policy research in the health sciences in the United States, focusing on methodological considerations for causal inference. METHODS: We identified original, empirical articles indexed in PubMed from 1 January 2000 to 1 September 2021 that examined any of 18 prespecified firearm policies. We extracted key study components, including policy type(s) examined, policy operationalization, outcomes, study setting and population, study approach and design, causal language, and whether and how authors acknowledged potential sources of bias. RESULTS: We screened 7733 articles and included 124. A plurality of studies used a legislative score as their primary exposure (n = 39; 32%) and did not examine change in policies over time (n = 47; 38%). Most examined firearm homicide (n = 51; 41%) or firearm suicide (n = 40; 32%) as outcomes. One-third adjusted for other firearm policies (n = 41; 33%). Three studies (2%) explicitly mentioned that their goal was to estimate causal effects, but over half used language implying causality (n = 72; 58%). Most acknowledged causal identification assumptions of temporality (n = 91; 73%) and exchangeability (n = 111; 90%); other assumptions were less often acknowledged. One-third of studies included bias analyses (n = 42; 34%). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a range of methodologic approaches in firearm policy research in the health sciences. Acknowledging the imitations of data availability and quality, we identify opportunities to improve causal inferences about and reporting on the effects of firearm policies on population health.

Strategies for recruiting adolescents in rural areas in firearm injury research.

BACKGROUND: Participant recruitment is a central aspect of human sciences research. Barriers to participant recruitment can be categorised into participant, recruiter and institutional factors. Firearm injury research poses unique barriers to recruitment. This is especially true for rural adolescents, who are at high risk for firearm-related injury and death, and whose voice is often absent in firearms research. In particular, recruitment strategies targeting adolescents should align with developmental changes occurring during this life stage. Identifying strategies to address recruitment barriers tailored to firearm-related research can help future researchers engage rural adolescents in injury prevention efforts. PURPOSE: The purpose of the current methodology paper is to outline barriers and provide strategies for recruiting rural adolescents in firearms research informed by the Youth Experiences in Rural Washington: Research on Firearm Safety project, a mixed-methods, community-based participatory research study of 13-18 year-olds residing in rural Washington. STRATEGIES: Recruitment barriers and related strategies were organised by participant-related and recruiter-related/institutional-related factors. While carrying out the study, key considerations or strategies which addressed multiple participant and recruiter/institutional factors, emerged with potential to enhance firearm-related research with rural adolescents more broadly. Key considerations included logistics (ie, scheduling flexibility, adequate and aligned incentives), use of a community-based participatory research approach and accounting for developmental stage. CONCLUSION: Reducing the burden of firearm injury and death for rural adolescents and developing effective interventions requires understanding and navigating recruitment barriers. Strategies used in the current project can guide future qualitative or mixed methods data collection informing firearm injury prevention.

Social and economic determinants of drug overdose deaths: a systematic review of spatial relationships.

PURPOSE: To synthesize the available evidence on the extent to which area-level socioeconomic conditions are associated with drug overdose deaths in the United States. METHODS: We performed a systematic review (in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Web of Science, EconLit) for papers published prior to July 2022. Eligible studies quantitatively estimated the association between an area-level measure of socioeconomic conditions and drug overdose deaths in the US, and were published in English. We assessed study quality using the Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool. The protocol was preregistered at Prospero (CRD42019121317). RESULTS: We identified 28 studies that estimated area-level effects of socioeconomic conditions on drug overdose deaths in the US. Studies were scored as having moderate to serious risk of bias attributed to both confounding and in analysis. Socioeconomic conditions and drug overdose death rates were moderately associated, and this was a consistent finding across a large number of measures and differences in study designs (e.g., cross-sectional versus longitudinal), years of data analyzed, and primary unit of analysis (e.g., ZIP code, county, state). CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights the evidence for area-level socioeconomic conditions are an important factor underlying the geospatial distribution of drug overdose deaths in the US and the need to understand the mechanisms underlying these associations to inform future policy recommendations. The current evidence base suggests that, at least in the United States, employment, income, and poverty interventions may be effective targets for preventing drug overdose mortality rates.

Bullying and physical violence and their association with handgun carrying among youth growing up in rural areas.

OBJECTIVES: This study builds on prior research showing a strong relationship between handgun carrying and delinquent behaviors among urban youth by examining the association between handgun carrying trajectories and various types of violence in a rural sample. METHODS: This study uses data from a longitudinal cohort study of 2002 public school students in the United States from 12 rural communities across 7 states from ages 12-26 (2005-2019). We used logistic regressions to assess associations of various bullying and physical violence behaviors with latent trajectories of handgun carrying from adolescence through young adulthood. RESULTS: Compared to youth with very low probabilities of carrying a handgun in adolescence and young adulthood, trajectories with high probabilities of handgun carrying during adolescence or young adulthood were associated with greater odds of using bullying (odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 1.9 to 11.2) and higher odds of using physical violence during adolescence (ORs ranging from 1.5 to 15.9) and young adulthood (ORs ranging from 1.9 to 4.7). These trajectories with higher probabilities of handgun carrying were also associated with greater odds of experiencing physical violence like parental physical abuse and intimate partner violence, but not bullying. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION: Experiencing and using bullying and physical violence were associated with specific patterns of handgun carrying among youth growing up in rural areas. Handgun carrying could be an important focus of violence prevention programs among those youth.

The origins of California's gun violence restraining order law: a case study using Kingdon's multiple streams framework.

BACKGROUND: Firearm violence is a major public health problem in the United States, yet most states lack a mechanism to temporarily remove firearms from individuals who are at high and imminent risk of harming themselves or others and are not otherwise prohibited. Extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws are intended to close this gap. The current study examines the passage of California's gun violence restraining order (GVRO) bill using Kingdon's multiple streams framework. METHODS: This study was based on an analysis of interview data from six key informants involved in the passage of the GVRO legislation. RESULTS: Findings indicate policy entrepreneurs framed the problem and designed the policy to target individuals at behavioral risk of imminent firearm violence. Policy entrepreneurs comprised an integrated policy network that engaged in a lengthy period of collaboration and bargained with interest groups to yield a bill that satisfied diverse concerns. CONCLUSIONS: This case study may inform efforts in other states to pass ERPO policies and other firearm safety laws.

Extreme Risk Protection Orders in Older Adults in Six U.S. States: A Descriptive Study.

OBJECTIVES: Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs) allow a court to restrict firearm access for individuals ("respondents") at imminent risk of harm to self/others. Little is known about ERPOs use for older adults, a population with higher rates of suicide and dementia. METHODS: We abstracted ERPO cases through June 30, 2020, from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington. We restricted our analysis to petitions for older (≥65 years) respondents, stratified by documented cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Among 6,699 ERPO petitions, 672 (10.0%) were for older adults; 13.7% (n = 92) of these noted cognitive impairment. Most were white (75.7%) men (90.2%). Cognitively impaired (vs. non-impaired) respondents were older (mean age 78.2 vs 72.7 years) and more likely to have documented irrational/erratic behavior (30.4% vs 15.7%), but less likely to have documented suicidality (33.7% vs 55.0%). At the time of the petition, 56.2% of older adult respondents had documented firearm access (median accessible firearms = 3, range 1-160). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 14% of ERPO petitions for older adults involved cognitive impairment; one-third of these noted suicide risk. Studies examining ERPO implementation across states may inform usage and awareness. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: ERPOs may reduce firearm access among older adults with cognitive impairment, suicidality, or risk of violence.

Neighborhood Racial and Economic Segregation and Disparities in Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Objectives. To describe associations between neighborhood racial and economic segregation and violence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. For 13 US cities, we obtained zip code-level data on 5 violence outcomes from March through July 2018 through 2020. Using negative binomial regressions and marginal contrasts, we estimated differences between quintiles of racial, economic, and racialized economic segregation using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes as a measure of neighborhood privilege (1) in 2020 and (2) relative to 2018 through 2019 (difference-in-differences). Results. In 2020, violence was higher in less-privileged neighborhoods than in the most privileged. For example, if all zip codes were in the least privileged versus most privileged quintile of racialized economic segregation, we estimated 146.2 additional aggravated assaults (95% confidence interval = 112.4, 205.8) per zip code on average across cities. Differences over time in less-privileged zip codes were greater than differences over time in the most privileged for firearm violence, aggravated assault, and homicide. Conclusions. Marginalized communities endure endemically high levels of violence. The events of 2020 exacerbated disparities in several forms of violence. Public Health Implications. To reduce violence and related disparities, immediate and long-term investments in low-income neighborhoods of color are warranted. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):144-153. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306540).

Income support policies and firearm violence prevention: A scoping review.

Firearm violence is a major threat to global public health and safety. Several individual, family, peer, community, and societal risk and protective factors determine or modify the risk of firearm violence. Specifically, there is a strong relationship between poverty, income inequality, and firearm violence; as such, interventions that influence upstream determinants of health by providing income support may hold much promise in affecting multiple domains of risk that are on the causal pathway to firearm violence. Guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews, we conducted a scoping review to examine the current state of evidence on the relationship between income support policies and risk of firearm violence. We searched 8 databases related to health and social sciences from inception through March 30, 2022, and placed no time, language, setting, or other publication restrictions on our search, as long as the study was quantitative or mixed-methods and addressed firearm violence specifically, rather than violence more broadly, as an outcome in relation to income support policies. We found 4 studies; of those, 3 were conducted in the United States and 1 in Brazil. All 4 found associations of policy-relevant magnitude between income support policies and reductions in risk of inter-personal firearm violence. We propose future opportunities to enhance the substantive scope and methodologic rigor of this field of research and inform policy and practice for greater impact.

Extreme risk protection orders in response to threats of multiple victim/mass shooting in six U.S. states: A descriptive study.

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs), also known as red flag laws, are a potential tool to prevent firearm violence, including mass shootings, but little is currently known about the extent of their use in cases of mass shooting threats or about the threats themselves. We collected and abstracted information from ERPO cases from six states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington). Ten percent (N = 662) of all ERPO cases (N = 6787) were in response to a threat of killing at least 3 people. Using these cases, we created a typology of multiple victim/mass shooting threats, the most common of which was the maximum casualty threat. The most common target for a multiple victim/mass shooting threat was a K-12 school, followed by businesses, then intimate partners and their children and families. Judges granted 93% of petitions that involved these threats at the temporary ERPO stage and, of those cases in which a final hearing was held, judges granted 84% of final ERPOs. While we cannot know how many of the 662 ERPO cases precipitated by a threat would have resulted in a multiple victim/mass shooting event had ERPO laws not been used to prohibit the purchase and possession of firearms, the study provides evidence at least that ERPOs are being used in six states in a substantial number of these kinds of cases that could have ended in tragedy.

Unemployment and Crime in US Cities During the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Unemployment and violence both increased during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States (US), but no studies to our knowledge have examined their association. Using data for 16 US cities from January 2018 to July 2020, we estimated the association between acute changes in unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic and violent and acquisitive crime. We used negative binomial regression models and parametric g-computation to estimate average differences in crime incidents if the highest and lowest levels of unemployment observed in each city had been sustained across the exposure period (March-July 2020), compared with observed unemployment in each city-month. During the pandemic, the percentage of the adult population who were unemployed was 8.1 percentage points higher than expected, on average. Increases in unemployment were associated with increases in firearm violence and homicide. For example, we estimated an average increase of 3.3 firearm violence incidents (95% CI: - 0.2, 6.7) and 2.0 homicides (95% CI: - 0.2, 3.9) per city-month from March to July 2020 if all cities experienced their highest versus observed level of unemployment. There was no association between unemployment and aggravated assault or any acquisitive crime. Findings suggest that the sharp rise in unemployment during the pandemic may have contributed to increases in firearm violence and homicide, but not other crime. Additional research is needed on mechanisms of association, generalizability, and modifying factors.

Gun violence restraining orders in California, 2016-2018: case details and respondent mortality.

BACKGROUND: Gun violence restraining orders (GVROs), implemented in California in 2016, temporarily prohibit individuals at high risk of violence from purchasing or possessing firearms and ammunition. We sought to describe the circumstances giving rise to GVROs issued 2016-2018, provide details about the GVRO process and quantify mortality outcomes for individuals subject to these orders ('respondents'). METHODS: For this cross-sectional description of GVRO respondents, 2016-2018, we abstracted case details from court files and used LexisNexis to link respondents to mortality data through August 2020. RESULTS: We abstracted information for 201 respondents with accessible court records. Respondents were mostly white (61.2%) and men (93.5%). Fifty-four per cent of cases involved potential harm to others alone, 15.3% involved potential harm to self alone and 25.2% involved both. Mass shooting threats occurred in 28.7% of cases. Ninety-six and one half per cent of petitioners were law enforcement officers and one-in-three cases resulted in arrest on order service. One-year orders after a hearing (following 21-day emergency/temporary orders) were issued in 53.5% of cases. Most (84.2%) respondents owned at least one firearm, and firearms were removed in 55.9% of cases. Of the 379 respondents matched by LexisNexis, 7 (1.8%) died after the GVRO was issued: one from a self-inflicted firearm injury that was itself the reason for the GVRO and the others from causes unrelated to violence. CONCLUSIONS: GVROs were used most often by law enforcement officers to prevent firearm assault/homicide and post-GVRO firearm fatalities among respondents were rare. Future studies should investigate additional respondent outcomes and potential sources of heterogeneity.

Alcohol and drug offenses and suicide risk among men who purchased a handgun in California: A cohort study.

Firearm access is a risk factor for firearm suicide; substance use may confer additional risk. In this retrospective cohort study, we estimated the associations between prior alcohol and drug charges at the time of handgun purchase and subsequent suicide among men in California. The sample comprised all men who legally purchased a handgun in California in 2001 and who were age ≥ 21 at the time of acquisition (N = 101,377), identified in the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Dealer's Record of Sale database. Exposures included alcohol and drug criminal charges and convictions accrued January 1, 1990 until the first ('index') handgun acquisition in 2001, recorded in the CA DOJ Criminal History Information System. Outcomes included suicide and firearm suicide occurring after the index purchase and before January 1, 2016. A total of 1907 purchasers had alcohol charges, 1248 had drug charges, and 304 had both; 594 purchasers died by suicide (516 by firearm suicide). Compared with those with neither alcohol nor drug charges, those with alcohol charges had 2.20 times the hazard of suicide (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39-3.46) and 2.22 times the hazard of firearm suicide (95% CI, 1.36-3.62). Risk was most elevated among those with more recent charges and those with 2 or more charges, and in the time period closest to the purchase. The associations for drug charges and the combination of alcohol and drug charges were not distinguishable from the null. Firearm owners with alcohol offenses may benefit from intervention to reduce firearm access and alcohol use.

Physical Distancing, Violence, and Crime in US Cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Violent crime increased and most property crime decreased in many United States (US) cities during the coronavirus pandemic. Using negative binomial regressions, we examined the association between physical distancing (a central coronavirus containment strategy) and crime within 16 large cities (in 12 US states and the District of Columbia) through July 2020. Physical distancing was measured with aggregated smartphone data and defined as the average change in the percentage of the population staying completely at home. Outcome data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive and city open data portals. In multivariable models, increases in the percentage of the population staying home were associated with decreases in reported incidents of aggravated assault, interpersonal firearm violence, theft, rape, and robbery, and increases in arson, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Results suggest that changes in the frequency of interpersonal interactions affected crime during the coronavirus pandemic. More research is needed on the specificity of these assocations and their underlying mechanisms.

Firearm ownership and perceived risk of personal firearm injury.

Despite evidence that firearm access in the home is a strong risk factor for firearm injury, firearms are owned more often for self-protection than for any other reason. In this cross-sectional study, we describe the association between firearm ownership and perceived risk of personal firearm injury using logistic regressions applied to data from the 2018 California Safety and Well-being Survey. Most respondents (57.7%) reported being very/somewhat worried about gun violence happening to them. Compared with non-owners in households without firearms, firearm owners were 60% (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.40, 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.58) less likely to be worried about gun violence happening to them; non-owners living in homes with firearms were 46% (aOR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.88) less likely. This suggests an underestimation of actuarial risk that conflicts with the available evidence, with important implications for public health messaging.

Firearm ownership in California: A latent class analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether firearm ownership and ownership-related motivations and practices can be classified into reasonably distinct types. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on firearm owners (n=429) were obtained from the 2018 California Safety and Well-Being Survey, a state-representative web-based survey. We conducted a latent class analysis using six self-reported indicators of firearm ownership: (1) number of firearms owned, (2) types of firearms owned, (3) primary reason for firearm ownership, (4) firearm storage, (5) loaded handgun carrying and (6) high-capacity magazine ownership. RESULTS: We identified five markedly different classes of firearm ownership. There were two classes of single-firearm owners and three classes of multiple-firearm owners. Only members of one class (9% of owners) were likely to have carried a loaded handgun and to own high-capacity magazines or assault-type weapons. Members of this class were also likely to own 5+ firearms, own for protection against people, and store a firearm in the least secure manner (loaded and unlocked). CONCLUSION: There were distinct classes of firearm ownership in California, and all higher-risk behaviours studied were exhibited disproportionately by members of a single class. This latent class structure, which may help identify higher-risk groups of firearm owners, could inform future research on risk assessment and on focused interventions to reduce firearm injury and death.

Extreme Risk Protection Orders Intended to Prevent Mass Shootings: A Case Series.

Urgent, individualized interventions to reduce firearm access, such as extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs, colloquially known as "red flag" orders), provide a rapid, focused response when risk for imminent firearm violence is high. Studies to date suggest such interventions are most commonly used to prevent suicide and are effective. Authorizing legislation has often been enacted after public mass shootings but, to our knowledge, there have been only 2 reported cases of ERPO use in efforts to prevent mass shootings. California enacted the nation's first ERPO statute, which took effect in January 2016. The authors are evaluating that statute's implementation and effectiveness and are seeking to obtain court records for all 414 cases occurring in 2016 to 2018. Based on 159 records received thus far, this article presents an aggregate summary and individual histories for a preliminary series of 21 cases in which ERPOs were used in efforts to prevent mass shootings. Most subjects were male and non-Hispanic white; the mean age was 35 years. Most subjects made explicit threats and owned firearms. Four cases arose primarily in relation to medical or mental health conditions, and such conditions were noted in 4 others. Fifty-two firearms were recovered. As of early August 2019, none of the threatened shootings had occurred, and no other homicides or suicides by persons subject to the orders were identified. It is impossible to know whether violence would have occurred had ERPOs not been issued, and the authors make no claim of a causal relationship. Nonetheless, the cases suggest that this urgent, individualized intervention can play a role in efforts to prevent mass shootings, in health care settings and elsewhere. Further evaluation would be helpful.

Association Between Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs and Nonfatal and Fatal Drug Overdoses: A Systematic Review.

Background: Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) are a key component of the president's Prescription Drug Abuse Prevention Plan to prevent opioid overdoses in the United States. Purpose: To examine whether PDMP implementation is associated with changes in nonfatal and fatal overdoses; identify features of programs differentially associated with those outcomes; and investigate any potential unintended consequences of the programs. Data Sources: Eligible publications from MEDLINE, Current Contents Connect (Clarivate Analytics), Science Citation Index (Clarivate Analytics), Social Sciences Citation Index (Clarivate Analytics), and ProQuest Dissertations indexed through 27 December 2017 and additional studies from reference lists. Study Selection: Observational studies (published in English) from U.S. states that examined an association between PDMP implementation and nonfatal or fatal overdoses. Data Extraction: 2 investigators independently extracted data from and rated the risk of bias (ROB) of studies by using established criteria. Consensus determinations involving all investigators were used to grade strength of evidence for each intervention. Data Synthesis: Of 2661 records, 17 articles met the inclusion criteria. These articles examined PDMP implementation only (n = 8), program features only (n = 2), PDMP implementation and program features (n = 5), PDMP implementation with mandated provider review combined with pain clinic laws (n = 1), and PDMP robustness (n = 1). Evidence from 3 studies was insufficient to draw conclusions regarding an association between PDMP implementation and nonfatal overdoses. Low-strength evidence from 10 studies suggested a reduction in fatal overdoses with PDMP implementation. Program features associated with a decrease in overdose deaths included mandatory provider review, provider authorization to access PDMP data, frequency of reports, and monitoring of nonscheduled drugs. Three of 6 studies found an increase in heroin overdoses after PDMP implementation. Limitation: Few studies, high ROB, and heterogeneous analytic methods and outcome measurement. Conclusion: Evidence that PDMP implementation either increases or decreases nonfatal or fatal overdoses is largely insufficient, as is evidence regarding positive associations between specific administrative features and successful programs. Some evidence showed unintended consequences. Research is needed to identify a set of "best practices" and complementary initiatives to address these consequences. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse and Bureau of Justice Assistance.

Organized abandonment under racial capitalism: Measuring accountable actors of structural racism for public health research and action.

Understanding the shifting nature of structural racism historically and across institutions is vital for effective action towards racial health equity. While public health research on structural racism is rapidly increasing, most studies are missing the interdependence of policies and institutional practices over time that shape power imbalances and lead to entrenched health inequities. Here, we discuss Ruth Wilson Gilmore's concept of organized abandonment - the intentional disinvestment in communities which, in turn, creates opportunities for extraction, revenue generation, and carceral enforcement to fill the cracks of a compromised social infrastructure - to encourage action-oriented public health research that is grounded in history and an understanding of racial capitalism. We present a case example using publicly-available data on redlining, gentrification and policing in Seattle, Washington. We mapped the intersections of redlining and gentrification and estimated their neighborhood-level association with police activity using Bayesian spatial Poisson regression models. We found that histories of racist housing policies like redlining and processes of gentrification are interdependent and shape contemporary neighborhood racial and economic segregation and police activity. Compared to structurally advantaged neighborhoods, police stops were higher in neighborhoods that were 1) historically disinvested (i.e. redlined) and remain low-income and structurally disadvantaged and 2) formerly industrial and business districts that were not redlined and are now gentrified. Notably, we found that policing practices were significantly more intensive in neighborhoods that were both high redlined and gentrified. Together, these findings illustrate how the place-based racialized processes of dispossession, displacement and policing are deeply intertwined to maintain racial capitalism. Our findings also highlight the importance of examining multiple racialized processes simultaneously to fill critical gaps in the existing literature that are necessary for sustainable solutions to address structural racism.

Measuring interpersonal firearm violence: natural language processing methods to address limitations in criminal charge data.

OBJECTIVE: Firearm violence constitutes a public health crisis in the United States, but comprehensive data infrastructure is lacking to study this problem. To address this challenge, we used natural language processing (NLP) to classify court record documents from alleged violent crimes as firearm-related or non-firearm-related. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We accessed and digitized court records from the state of Washington (n = 1472). Human review established a gold standard label for firearm involvement (yes/no). We developed a key term search and trained supervised machine learning classifiers for this labeling task. Results were evaluated in a held-out test set. RESULTS: The decision tree performed best (F1 score: 0.82). The key term list had perfect recall (1.0) and a modest F1 score (0.65). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This case report highlights the accuracy, feasibility, and potential time-saved by using NLP to identify firearm involvement in alleged violent crimes based on digitized narratives from court documents.

The association of alcohol use and heavy drinking with subsequent handgun carrying among youth from rural areas.

PURPOSE: Alcohol use and handgun carrying are more prevalent among youth in rural than urban areas and their association may be stronger among rural adolescents. Alcohol use may be modifiable with implications for reducing handgun carrying and firearm-related harm. We examined the association between lagged alcohol use and subsequent handgun carrying in rural areas and examined variation in the association by developmental stages, hypothesizing that it would be stronger among adolescents than youth adults. METHODS: We used a longitudinal sample of 2,002 adolescents from ages 12 to 26 growing up in 12 rural communities in 7 states with surveys collected from 2004 to 2019. We estimated the association of lagged past-month alcohol use on handgun carrying in the subsequent 12 months using population-average generalized estimating equations with logistic regression on multiply imputed data. FINDINGS: During adolescence (ages 12-18), those who drank heavily had 1.43 times the odds (95% CI = [1.01, 2.03]) of subsequent handgun carrying compared to those who did not drink alcohol, and those who consumed alcohol but did not drink heavily had 1.30 times the odds of subsequent handgun carrying compared to those who did not drink (95% CI = [0.98, 1.71]). During young adulthood (ages 19-26), associations of alcohol use (OR = 1.28; 95% CI = [0.94, 1.63]) and heavy drinking (OR = 1.38; 95% CI = [1.08, 1.68]) were similar to adolescence. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use and subsequent handgun carrying were positively associated during adolescence and young adulthood among individuals who grew up in rural areas, similar to findings in urban areas. Reducing alcohol use may be an important strategy to prevent handgun carrying and firearm-related harm among young people in rural areas.