Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box.

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Towards cascading genetic risk in Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease typically progresses in stages, which have been defined by the presence of disease-specific biomarkers: amyloid (A), tau (T) and neurodegeneration (N). This progression of biomarkers has been condensed into the ATN framework, in which each of the biomarkers can be either positive (+) or negative (-). Over the past decades, genome-wide association studies have implicated ∼90 different loci involved with the development of late-onset Alzheimer's disease. Here, we investigate whether genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease contributes equally to the progression in different disease stages or whether it exhibits a stage-dependent effect. Amyloid (A) and tau (T) status was defined using a combination of available PET and CSF biomarkers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. In 312 participants with biomarker-confirmed A-T- status, we used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the contribution of APOE and polygenic risk scores (beyond APOE) to convert to A+T- status (65 conversions). Furthermore, we repeated the analysis in 290 participants with A+T- status and investigated the genetic contribution to conversion to A+T+ (45 conversions). Both survival analyses were adjusted for age, sex and years of education. For progression from A-T- to A+T-, APOE-e4 burden showed a significant effect [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.70-4.89; P < 0.001], whereas polygenic risk did not (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.84-1.42; P = 0.53). Conversely, for the transition from A+T- to A+T+, the contribution of APOE-e4 burden was reduced (HR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.05-2.51; P = 0.031), whereas the polygenic risk showed an increased contribution (HR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.27-2.36; P < 0.001). The marginal APOE effect was driven by e4 homozygotes (HR = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.05-6.35; P = 0.039) as opposed to e4 heterozygotes (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 0.87-3.49; P = 0.12). The genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease unfolds in a disease stage-dependent fashion. A better understanding of the interplay between disease stage and genetic risk can lead to a more mechanistic understanding of the transition between ATN stages and a better understanding of the molecular processes leading to Alzheimer's disease, in addition to opening therapeutic windows for targeted interventions.

Associations between accelerated forgetting, amyloid deposition and brain atrophy in older adults.

Accelerated long-term forgetting (ALF) is the phenomenon whereby material is retained normally over short intervals (e.g. minutes) but forgotten abnormally rapidly over longer periods (days or weeks). ALF may be an early marker of cognitive decline, but little is known about its relationships with preclinical Alzheimer's disease pathology, and how memory selectivity may influence which material is forgotten. We assessed ALF in 'Insight 46', a sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (a population-based cohort born during one week in 1946) (n=429; 47% female; assessed aged ∼73 years). ALF assessment comprised visual and verbal memory tests: Complex Figure Drawing and the Face-Name Associative Memory Exam (FNAME). ALF scores were calculated as the percentage of material retained after 7 days, relative to 30 minutes. In 306 cognitively-normal participants, we investigated effects on ALF of ß-amyloid pathology (quantified using 18F-Florbetapir-PET, classified as positive/negative) and whole-brain and hippocampal atrophy rate (quantified from serial T1-MRI over ∼2.4 years preceding the ALF assessment), as well as interactions between these pathologies. We categorized Complex Figure Drawing items as 'outline' or 'detail', to test our hypothesis that forgetting the outline of the structure would be more sensitive to the effect of brain pathologies. We also investigated associations between ALF and Subjective Cognitive Decline, measured with the MyCog questionnaire. Complex Figure 'outline' items were better retained than 'detail' items (mean retention over 7 days = 94% vs 72%). Amyloid-positive participants showed greater forgetting of the Complex Figure outline, compared to amyloid-negatives (90% vs 95%; P<0.01). There were interactions between amyloid pathology and cerebral atrophy, such that whole-brain and hippocampal atrophy predicted greater ALF on Complex Figure Drawing among amyloid-positives only (e.g. 1.9 percentage-points lower retention per ml/year of whole-brain atrophy [95% confidence intervals 0.5, 3.7]; P<0.05). Greater ALF on FNAME was associated with increased rate of hippocampal atrophy. ALF on Complex Figure Drawing also correlated with subjective cognitive decline (-0.45 percentage-points per MyCog point [-0.85, -0.05], P<0.05). These results provide evidence of associations between some measures of ALF and biomarkers of brain pathologies and subjective cognitive decline in cognitively-normal older adults. On Complex Figure Drawing, 'outline' items were better remembered than 'detail' items - illustrating the strategic role of memory selectivity - but 'outline' items were also relatively more vulnerable to ALF in individuals with amyloid pathology. Overall, our findings suggest that ALF may be a sensitive marker of cognitive changes in preclinical Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease marker phospho-tau181 is not elevated in the first year after moderate-to-severe TBI.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with the tauopathies Alzheimer's disease and chronic traumatic encephalopathy. Advanced immunoassays show significant elevations in plasma total tau (t-tau) early post-TBI, but concentrations subsequently normalise rapidly. Tau phosphorylated at serine-181 (p-tau181) is a well-validated Alzheimer's disease marker that could potentially seed progressive neurodegeneration. We tested whether post-traumatic p-tau181 concentrations are elevated and relate to progressive brain atrophy. METHODS: Plasma p-tau181 and other post-traumatic biomarkers, including total-tau (t-tau), neurofilament light (NfL), ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), were assessed after moderate-to-severe TBI in the BIO-AX-TBI cohort (first sample mean 2.7 days, second sample within 10 days, then 6 weeks, 6 months and 12 months, n=42). Brain atrophy rates were assessed in aligned serial MRI (n=40). Concentrations were compared patients with and without Alzheimer's disease, with healthy controls. RESULTS: Plasma p-tau181 concentrations were significantly raised in patients with Alzheimer's disease but not after TBI, where concentrations were non-elevated, and remained stable over one year. P-tau181 after TBI was not predictive of brain atrophy rates in either grey or white matter. In contrast, substantial trauma-associated elevations in t-tau, NfL, GFAP and UCH-L1 were seen, with concentrations of NfL and t-tau predictive of brain atrophy rates. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma p-tau181 is not significantly elevated during the first year after moderate-to-severe TBI and levels do not relate to neuroimaging measures of neurodegeneration.

Peripheral hearing loss at age 70 predicts brain atrophy and associated cognitive change.

BACKGROUND: Hearing loss has been proposed as a modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, the relationship between hearing, neurodegeneration, and cognitive change, and the extent to which pathological processes such as Alzheimer's disease and cerebrovascular disease influence these relationships, is unclear. METHODS: Data from 287 adults born in the same week of 1946 who underwent baseline pure tone audiometry (mean age=70.6 years) and two time point cognitive assessment/multimodal brain imaging (mean interval 2.4 years) were analysed. Hearing impairment at baseline was defined as a pure tone average of greater than 25 decibels in the best hearing ear. Rates of change for whole brain, hippocampal and ventricle volume were estimated from structural MRI using the Boundary Shift Integral. Cognition was assessed using the Pre-clinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite. Regression models were performed to evaluate how baseline hearing impairment associated with subsequent brain atrophy and cognitive decline after adjustment for a range of confounders including baseline ß-amyloid deposition and white matter hyperintensity volume. RESULTS: 111 out of 287 participants had hearing impairment. Compared with those with preserved hearing, hearing impaired individuals had faster rates of whole brain atrophy, and worse hearing (higher pure tone average) predicted faster rates of hippocampal atrophy. In participants with hearing impairment, faster rates of whole brain atrophy predicted greater cognitive change. All observed relationships were independent of ß-amyloid deposition and white matter hyperintensity volume. CONCLUSIONS: Hearing loss may influence dementia risk via pathways distinct from those typically implicated in Alzheimer's and cerebrovascular disease in cognitively unimpaired older adults.

Rates of cortical thinning in Alzheimer's disease signature regions associate with vascular burden but not with ß-amyloid status in cognitively normal adults at age 70.

BACKGROUND: Consistent patterns of reduced cortical thickness have been identified in early Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the pathological factors that influence rates of cortical thinning within these AD signature regions remain unclear. METHODS: Participants were from the Insight 46 substudy of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort), a prospective longitudinal cohort study. Linear regression was used to examine associations of baseline cerebral ß-amyloid (Aß) deposition, measured using florbetapir positron emission tomography, and baseline white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) on MRI, a marker of cerebral small vessel disease, with subsequent longitudinal changes in AD signature cortical thickness quantified from baseline and repeat MRI (mean [SD] interval 2.4 [0.2] years). RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 337 cognitively normal older white adults (mean [SD] age at baseline 70.5 [0.6] years; 48.1% female), higher global WMHV at baseline related to faster subsequent rates of cortical thinning in both AD signature regions (~0.15%/year faster per 10 mL additional WMHV), whereas baseline Aß status did not. Among Aß positive participants (n=56), there was some evidence that greater global Aß standardised uptake value ratio at baseline related to faster cortical thinning in the AD signature Mayo region, but this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Cortical thinning within AD signature regions may develop via cerebrovascular pathways. Perhaps reflecting the age of the cohort and relatively low prevalence of Aß-positivity, robust Aß-related differences were not detected. Longitudinal follow-up incorporating additional biomarkers will allow assessment of how these relationships evolve closer to expected dementia onset.

Updating the study protocol: Insight 46 - a longitudinal neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development - phases 2 and 3.

BACKGROUND: Although age is the biggest known risk factor for dementia, there remains uncertainty about other factors over the life course that contribute to a person's risk for cognitive decline later in life. Furthermore, the pathological processes leading to dementia are not fully understood. The main goals of Insight 46-a multi-phase longitudinal observational study-are to collect detailed cognitive, neurological, physical, cardiovascular, and sensory data; to combine those data with genetic and life-course information collected from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort); and thereby contribute to a better understanding of healthy ageing and dementia. METHODS/DESIGN: Phase 1 of Insight 46 (2015-2018) involved the recruitment of 502 members of the NSHD (median age = 70.7 years; 49% female) and has been described in detail by Lane and Parker et al. 2017. The present paper describes phase 2 (2018-2021) and phase 3 (2021-ongoing). Of the 502 phase 1 study members who were invited to a phase 2 research visit, 413 were willing to return for a clinic visit in London and 29 participated in a remote research assessment due to COVID-19 restrictions. Phase 3 aims to recruit 250 study members who previously participated in both phases 1 and 2 of Insight 46 (providing a third data time point) and 500 additional members of the NSHD who have not previously participated in Insight 46. DISCUSSION: The NSHD is the oldest and longest continuously running British birth cohort. Members of the NSHD are now at a critical point in their lives for us to investigate successful ageing and key age-related brain morbidities. Data collected from Insight 46 have the potential to greatly contribute to and impact the field of healthy ageing and dementia by combining unique life course data with longitudinal multiparametric clinical, imaging, and biomarker measurements. Further protocol enhancements are planned, including in-home sleep measurements and the engagement of participants through remote online cognitive testing. Data collected are and will continue to be made available to the scientific community.

Clinical considerations in early-onset cerebral amyloid angiopathy.

Cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) is an important cerebral small vessel disease associated with brain haemorrhage and cognitive change. The commonest form, sporadic amyloid-ß CAA, usually affects people in mid- to later life. However, early-onset forms, though uncommon, are increasingly recognized and may result from genetic or iatrogenic causes that warrant specific and focused investigation and management. In this review, we firstly describe the causes of early-onset CAA, including monogenic causes of amyloid-ß CAA (APP missense mutations and copy number variants; mutations of PSEN1 and PSEN2) and non-amyloid-ß CAA (associated with ITM2B, CST3, GSN, PRNP and TTR mutations), and other unusual sporadic and acquired causes including the newly-recognized iatrogenic subtype. We then provide a structured approach for investigating early-onset CAA, and highlight important management considerations. Improving awareness of these unusual forms of CAA amongst healthcare professionals is essential for facilitating their prompt diagnosis, and an understanding of their underlying pathophysiology may have implications for more common, late-onset, forms of the disease.

Seed amplification and neurodegeneration marker trajectories in individuals at risk of prion disease.

Human prion diseases are remarkable for long incubation times followed typically by rapid clinical decline. Seed amplification assays and neurodegeneration biofluid biomarkers are remarkably useful in the clinical phase, but their potential to predict clinical onset in healthy people remains unclear. This is relevant not only to the design of preventive strategies in those at-risk of prion diseases, but more broadly, because prion-like mechanisms are thought to underpin many neurodegenerative disorders. Here, we report the accrual of a longitudinal biofluid resource in patients, controls and healthy people at risk of prion diseases, to which ultrasensitive techniques such as real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) and single molecule array (Simoa) digital immunoassays were applied for preclinical biomarker discovery. We studied 648 CSF and plasma samples, including 16 people who had samples taken when healthy but later developed inherited prion disease (IPD) ('converters'; range from 9.9 prior to, and 7.4 years after onset). Symptomatic IPD CSF samples were screened by RT-QuIC assay variations, before testing the entire collection of at-risk samples using the most sensitive assay. Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light (NfL), tau and UCH-L1 levels were measured in plasma and CSF. Second generation (IQ-CSF) RT-QuIC proved 100% sensitive and specific for sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), iatrogenic and familial CJD phenotypes, and subsequently detected seeding activity in four presymptomatic CSF samples from three E200K carriers; one converted in under 2 months while two remain asymptomatic after at least 3 years' follow-up. A bespoke HuPrP P102L RT-QuIC showed partial sensitivity for P102L disease. No compatible RT-QuIC assay was discovered for classical 6-OPRI, A117V and D178N, and these at-risk samples tested negative with bank vole RT-QuIC. Plasma GFAP and NfL, and CSF NfL levels emerged as proximity markers of neurodegeneration in the typically slow IPDs (e.g. P102L), with significant differences in mean values segregating healthy control from IPD carriers (within 2 years to onset) and symptomatic IPD cohorts; plasma GFAP appears to change before NfL, and before clinical conversion. In conclusion, we show distinct biomarker trajectories in fast and slow IPDs. Specifically, we identify several years of presymptomatic seeding positivity in E200K, a new proximity marker (plasma GFAP) and sequential neurodegenerative marker evolution (plasma GFAP followed by NfL) in slow IPDs. We suggest a new preclinical staging system featuring clinical, seeding and neurodegeneration aspects, for validation with larger prion at-risk cohorts, and with potential application to other neurodegenerative proteopathies.

Predicting progression to Alzheimer's disease dementia using cognitive measures.

OBJECTIVES: It is important to determine if cognitive measures identified as being prognostic in dementia research cohorts also have utility in memory clinics. We aimed to identify measures with the greatest power to predict future Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia in a clinical setting where expensive biomarkers are not widely available. METHODS: This study utilized routine Memory Clinic data collected over 18 years. From 2214 patients assessed in the clinic, we selected 328 patients with an initial diagnosis of subjective cognitive decline or mild cognitive impairment. We compared two types of statistical model for the prediction of AD dementia. The first model included baseline cognitive test scores only, while the second model also included change scores between baseline and the first follow-up. RESULTS: Baseline scores on tests of global cognitive function (Mini-mental state examination and Cambridge Cognitive Examination-Revised), verbal episodic memory and psychomotor speed were the best predictors of conversion to AD dementia. The inclusion of cognitive change scores over 1 year of follow-up improved predictive accuracy versus baseline scores alone. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the best cognitive predictors of AD dementia in a clinical setting were similar to those previously identified using research cohorts. Taking change in cognitive function into account enabled the onset of AD dementia to be predicted with greater accuracy.

Personalizing progressive changes to brain structure in Alzheimer's disease using normative modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual variability in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we used normative modeling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD. METHODS: Cortical and subcortical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n ≈ 58k). These models were used to calculate regional z scores in 3233 T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging time-series scans from 1181 participants. Regions with z scores < -1.96 were classified as outliers mapped on the brain and summarized by total outlier count (tOC). RESULTS: tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and also correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of progression from MCI to AD. Brain outlier maps identified the hippocampus as having the highest rate of change. DISCUSSION: Individual patients' atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC. HIGHLIGHTS: Neuroanatomical normative modeling was applied to serial Alzheimer's disease (AD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the first time. Deviation from the norm (outliers) of cortical thickness or brain volume was computed in 3233 scans. The number of brain-structure outliers increased over time in people with AD. Patterns of change in outliers varied markedly between individual patients with AD. People with mild cognitive impairment whose outliers increased over time had a higher risk of progression from AD.

Common infections and neuroimaging markers of dementia in three UK cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate associations between common infections and neuroimaging markers of dementia risk (brain volume, hippocampal volume, white matter lesions) across three population-based studies. METHODS: We tested associations between serology measures (pathogen serostatus, cumulative burden, continuous antibody responses) and outcomes using linear regression, including adjustments for total intracranial volume and scanner/clinic information (basic model), age, sex, ethnicity, education, socioeconomic position, alcohol, body mass index, and smoking (fully adjusted model). Interactions between serology measures and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype were tested. Findings were meta-analyzed across cohorts (Nmain  = 2632; NAPOE-interaction  = 1810). RESULTS: Seropositivity to John Cunningham virus associated with smaller brain volumes in basic models (ß = -3.89 mL [-5.81, -1.97], Padjusted  < 0.05); these were largely attenuated in fully adjusted models (ß = -1.59 mL [-3.55, 0.36], P = 0.11). No other relationships were robust to multiple testing corrections and sensitivity analyses, but several suggestive associations were observed. DISCUSSION: We did not find clear evidence for relationships between common infections and markers of dementia risk. Some suggestive findings warrant testing for replication.

Investigating reliable amyloid accumulation in Centiloids: Results from the AMYPAD Prognostic and Natural History Study.

INTRODUCTION: To support clinical trial designs focused on early interventions, our study determined reliable early amyloid-ß (Aß) accumulation based on Centiloids (CL) in pre-dementia populations. METHODS: A total of 1032 participants from the Amyloid Imaging to Prevent Alzheimer's Disease-Prognostic and Natural History Study (AMYPAD-PNHS) and Insight46 who underwent [18F]flutemetamol, [18F]florbetaben or [18F]florbetapir amyloid-PET were included. A normative strategy was used to define reliable accumulation by estimating the 95th percentile of longitudinal measurements in sub-populations (NPNHS = 101/750, NInsight46 = 35/382) expected to remain stable over time. The baseline CL threshold that optimally predicts future accumulation was investigated using precision-recall analyses. Accumulation rates were examined using linear mixed-effect models. RESULTS: Reliable accumulation in the PNHS was estimated to occur at >3.0 CL/year. Baseline CL of 16 [12,19] best predicted future Aß-accumulators. Rates of amyloid accumulation were tracer-independent, lower for APOE ε4 non-carriers, and for subjects with higher levels of education. DISCUSSION: Our results support a 12-20 CL window for inclusion into early secondary prevention studies. Reliable accumulation definition warrants further investigations.

Amyloid pathology and vascular risk are associated with distinct patterns of cerebral white matter hyperintensities: A multicenter study in 3132 memory clinic patients.

INTRODUCTION: White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are associated with key dementia etiologies, in particular arteriolosclerosis and amyloid pathology. We aimed to identify WMH locations associated with vascular risk or cerebral amyloid-ß1-42 (Aß42)-positive status. METHODS: Individual patient data (n = 3,132; mean age 71.5 ± 9 years; 49.3% female) from 11 memory clinic cohorts were harmonized. WMH volumes in 28 regions were related to a vascular risk compound score (VRCS) and Aß42 status (based on cerebrospinal fluid or amyloid positron emission tomography), correcting for age, sex, study site, and total WMH volume. RESULTS: VRCS was associated with WMH in anterior/superior corona radiata (B = 0.034/0.038, p < 0.001), external capsule (B = 0.052, p < 0.001), and middle cerebellar peduncle (B = 0.067, p < 0.001), and Aß42-positive status with WMH in posterior thalamic radiation (B = 0.097, p < 0.001) and splenium (B = 0.103, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Vascular risk factors and Aß42 pathology have distinct signature WMH patterns. This regional vulnerability may incite future studies into how arteriolosclerosis and Aß42 pathology affect the brain's white matter. HIGHLIGHTS: Key dementia etiologies may be associated with specific patterns of white matter hyperintensities (WMH). We related WMH locations to vascular risk and cerebral Aß42 status in 11 memory clinic cohorts. Aß42 positive status was associated with posterior WMH in splenium and posterior thalamic radiation. Vascular risk was associated with anterior and infratentorial WMH. Amyloid pathology and vascular risk have distinct signature WMH patterns.

Circulating Metabolome and White Matter Hyperintensities in Women and Men.

BACKGROUND: White matter hyperintensities (WMH), identified on T2-weighted magnetic resonance images of the human brain as areas of enhanced brightness, are a major risk factor of stroke, dementia, and death. There are no large-scale studies testing associations between WMH and circulating metabolites. METHODS: We studied up to 9290 individuals (50.7% female, average age 61 years) from 15 populations of 8 community-based cohorts. WMH volume was quantified from T2-weighted or fluid-attenuated inversion recovery images or as hypointensities on T1-weighted images. Circulating metabolomic measures were assessed with mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Associations between WMH and metabolomic measures were tested by fitting linear regression models in the pooled sample and in sex-stratified and statin treatment-stratified subsamples. Our basic models were adjusted for age, sex, age×sex, and technical covariates, and our fully adjusted models were also adjusted for statin treatment, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Population-specific results were meta-analyzed using the fixed-effect inverse variance-weighted method. Associations with false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted P values (PFDR)<0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis of results from the basic models, we identified 30 metabolomic measures associated with WMH (PFDR<0.05), 7 of which remained significant in the fully adjusted models. The most significant association was with higher level of hydroxyphenylpyruvate in men (PFDR.full.adj=1.40×10-7) and in both the pooled sample (PFDR.full.adj=1.66×10-4) and statin-untreated (PFDR.full.adj=1.65×10-6) subsample. In men, hydroxyphenylpyruvate explained 3% to 14% of variance in WMH. In men and the pooled sample, WMH were also associated with lower levels of lysophosphatidylcholines and hydroxysphingomyelins and a larger diameter of low-density lipoprotein particles, likely arising from higher triglyceride to total lipids and lower cholesteryl ester to total lipids ratios within these particles. In women, the only significant association was with higher level of glucuronate (PFDR=0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating metabolomic measures, including multiple lipid measures (eg, lysophosphatidylcholines, hydroxysphingomyelins, low-density lipoprotein size and composition) and nonlipid metabolites (eg, hydroxyphenylpyruvate, glucuronate), associate with WMH in a general population of middle-aged and older adults. Some metabolomic measures show marked sex specificities and explain a sizable proportion of WMH variance.

Evaluation of novel data-driven metrics of amyloid ß deposition for longitudinal PET studies.

PURPOSE: Positron emission tomography (PET) provides in vivo quantification of amyloid-ß (Aß) pathology. Established methods for assessing Aß burden can be affected by physiological and technical factors. Novel, data-driven metrics have been developed to account for these sources of variability. We aimed to evaluate the performance of four of these amyloid PET metrics against conventional techniques, using a common set of criteria. METHODS: Three cohorts were used for evaluation: Insight 46 (N=464, [18F]florbetapir), AIBL (N=277, [18F]flutemetamol), and an independent test-retest data (N=10, [18F]flutemetamol). Established metrics of amyloid tracer uptake included the Centiloid (CL) and where dynamic data was available, the non-displaceable binding potential (BPND). The four data-driven metrics computed were the amyloid load (Aß load), the Aß-PET pathology accumulation index (Aß index), the Centiloid derived from non-negative matrix factorisation (CLNMF), and the amyloid pattern similarity score (AMPSS). These metrics were evaluated using reliability and repeatability in test-retest data, associations with BPND and CL, variability of the rate of change and sample size estimates to detect a 25% slowing in Aß accumulation. RESULTS: All metrics showed good reliability. Aß load, Aß index and CLNMF were strong associated with the BPND. The associations with CL suggest that cross-sectional measures of CLNMF, Aß index and Aß load are robust across studies. Sample size estimates for secondary prevention trial scenarios were the lowest for CLNMF and Aß load compared to the CL. CONCLUSION: Among the novel data-driven metrics evaluated, the Aß load, the Aß index and the CLNMF can provide comparable performance to more established quantification methods of Aß PET tracer uptake. The CLNMF and Aß load could offer a more precise alternative to CL, although further studies in larger cohorts should be conducted.

Timing of physical activity across adulthood on later-life cognition: 30 years follow-up in the 1946 British birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: To assess how timing, frequency and maintenance of being physically active, spanning over 30 years in adulthood, is associated with later-life cognitive function. METHODS: Participants (n=1417, 53% female) were from the prospective longitudinal cohort study, 1946 British birth cohort. Participation in leisure time physical activity was reported five times between ages 36 and 69, categorised into: not active (no participation in physical activity/month); moderately active (participated 1-4 times/month); most active (participated 5 or more times/month). Cognition at age 69 was assessed by tests of cognitive state (Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-III), verbal memory (word learning test) and processing speed (visual search speed). RESULTS: Being physically active, at all assessments in adulthood, was associated with higher cognition at age 69. For cognitive state and verbal memory, the effect sizes were similar across all adult ages, and between those who were moderately and most physically active. The strongest association was between sustained cumulative physical activity and later-life cognitive state, in a dose-response manner. Adjusting for childhood cognition, childhood socioeconomic position and education largely attenuated these associations but results mainly remained significant at the 5% level. CONCLUSIONS: Being physically active at any time in adulthood, and to any extent, is linked with higher later-life cognitive state, but lifelong maintenance of physical activity was most optimal. These relationships were partly explained by childhood cognition and education, but independent of cardiovascular and mental health and APOE-E4, suggestive of the importance of education on the lifelong impacts of physical activity.

Distinct patterns of neurodegeneration after TBI and in Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a dementia risk factor, with Alzheimer's disease (AD) more common following injury. Patterns of neurodegeneration produced by TBI can be compared to AD and aging using volumetric MRI. METHODS: A total of 55 patients after moderate to severe TBI (median age 40), 45 with AD (median age 69), and 61 healthy volunteers underwent magnetic resonance imaging over 2 years. Atrophy patterns were compared. RESULTS: AD patients had markedly lower baseline volumes. TBI was associated with increased white matter (WM) atrophy, particularly involving corticospinal tracts and callosum, whereas AD rates were increased across white and gray matter (GM). Subcortical WM loss was shared in AD/TBI, but deep WM atrophy was TBI-specific and cortical atrophy AD-specific. Post-TBI atrophy patterns were distinct from aging, which resembled AD. DISCUSSION: Post-traumatic neurodegeneration 1.9-4.0 years (median) following moderate-severe TBI is distinct from aging/AD, predominantly involving central WM. This likely reflects distributions of axonal injury, a neurodegeneration trigger. HIGHLIGHTS: We compared patterns of brain atrophy longitudinally after moderate to severe TBI in late-onset AD and healthy aging. Patients after TBI had abnormal brain atrophy involving the corpus callosum and other WM tracts, including corticospinal tracts, in a pattern that was specific and distinct from AD and aging. This pattern is reminiscent of axonal injury following TBI, and atrophy rates were predicted by the extent of axonal injury on diffusion tensor imaging, supporting a relationship between early axonal damage and chronic neurodegeneration.

Cortical tau is associated with microstructural imaging biomarkers of neurite density and dendritic complexity in Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: In Alzheimer's disease (AD), hyperphosphorylated tau is closely associated with focal neurodegeneration, but the mechanism remains uncertain. METHODS: We quantified cortical microstructure using neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging in 14 individuals with young onset AD. Diffusion tensor imaging measured mean diffusivity (MD). Amyloid beta and tau positron emission tomography were acquired and associations with microstructural measures were assessed. RESULTS: When regional volume was adjusted for, in the medial temporal lobe there was a significant negative association between neurite density and tau (partial R2  = 0.56, p = 0.008) and between orientation dispersion and tau (partial R2  = 0.66, p = 0.002), but not between MD and tau. In a wider cortical composite, there was an association between orientation dispersion and tau (partial R2  = 0.43, p = 0.030), but not between other measures and tau. DISCUSSION: Our findings are consistent with tau causing first dendritic pruning (reducing dispersion/complexity) followed by neuronal loss. Advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) microstructural measures have the potential to provide information relating to underlying tau deposition.

Strategic white matter hyperintensity locations for cognitive impairment: A multicenter lesion-symptom mapping study in 3525 memory clinic patients.

INTRODUCTION: Impact of white matter hyperintensities (WMH) on cognition likely depends on lesion location, but a comprehensive map of strategic locations is lacking. We aimed to identify these locations in a large multicenter study. METHODS: Individual patient data (n = 3525) from 11 memory clinic cohorts were harmonized. We determined the association of WMH location with attention and executive functioning, information processing speed, language, and verbal memory performance using voxel-based and region of interest tract-based analyses. RESULTS: WMH in the left and right anterior thalamic radiation, forceps major, and left inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus were significantly related to domain-specific impairment, independent of total WMH volume and atrophy. A strategic WMH score based on these tracts inversely correlated with performance in all domains. DISCUSSION: The data show that the impact of WMH on cognition is location-dependent, primarily involving four strategic white matter tracts. Evaluation of WMH location may support diagnosing vascular cognitive impairment. HIGHLIGHTS: We analyzed white matter hyperintensities (WMH) in 3525 memory clinic patients from 11 cohorts The impact of WMH on cognition depends on location We identified four strategic white matter tracts A single strategic WMH score was derived from these four strategic tracts The strategic WMH score was an independent determinant of four cognitive domains.