Characterization Factors to Assess Land Use Impacts on Pollinator Abundance in Life Cycle Assessment.

While wild pollinators play a key role in global food production, their assessment is currently missing from the most commonly used environmental impact assessment method, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This is mainly due to constraints in data availability and compatibility with LCA inventories. To target this gap, relative pollinator abundance estimates were obtained with the use of a Delphi assessment, during which 25 experts, covering 16 nationalities and 45 countries of expertise, provided scores for low, typical, and high expected abundance associated with 24 land use categories. Based on these estimates, this study presents a set of globally generic characterization factors (CFs) that allows translating land use into relative impacts to wild pollinator abundance. The associated uncertainty of the CFs is presented along with an illustrative case to demonstrate the applicability in LCA studies. The CFs based on estimates that reached consensus during the Delphi assessment are recommended as readily applicable and allow key differences among land use types to be distinguished. The resulting CFs are proposed as the first step for incorporating pollinator impacts in LCA studies, exemplifying the use of expert elicitation methods as a useful tool to fill data gaps that constrain the characterization of key environmental impacts.

The Role of Different Types of Actors In The Future of Sustainable Agriculture In a Dutch Peri-urban Area.

Peri-urban areas support a broad range of multifunctional demands for public goods. In northwest Europe, peri-urban areas tend to overlap with intensive agricultural land, resulting in conflicts between agricultural use and the public good demands of residents. Sustainable intensification (SI) of agriculture might help reconcile agricultural and well-being goals, but it is unclear how the mix of actors in a peri-urban setting can trigger or restrain SI. In a Dutch case study, we explored how SI of agriculture can contribute to making peri-urban areas more sustainable, and which actors are key enabling factors for implementing SI. We used interviews, surveys, workshops, and empirical analysis to obtain insight into the stakeholder's vision of a sustainable future for the case study area, the farming system and actor network. We integrated these insights in a Bayesian Belief Network, where we linked the actor network to implementation of three SI measures (farm-level efficiency measures, small landscape elements, and direct sales), and used sensitivity analysis to model effects of support for implementation by different groups of actors. The case study has a dense stakeholder network, where, dependent on the SI measure, farmers are triggered by all actors to implement SI, or have a stronger role in uptake themselves. The sensitivity analysis suggested that the future preferred by the stakeholders requires broad support of all actors involved, with local actors without a formal role being essential for uptake. Overall, trade-offs among public goods are almost inevitable when taking up SI measures.

Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing - Insights from five European case studies.

Empirical research on land sharing and land sparing has been criticized because preferences of local stakeholders, socio-economic aspects, a bundle of ecosystem services and the local context were only rarely integrated. Using storylines and scenarios is a common approach to include land use drivers and local contexts or to cope with the uncertainties of future developments. The objective of the presented research is to develop comparable participatory regional land use scenarios for the year 2030 reflecting land sharing, land sparing and more intermediate developments across five different European landscapes (Austria, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Spain). In order to ensure methodological consistency among the five case studies, a hierarchical multi-scale scenario approach was developed, which consisted of i) the selection of a common global storyline to frame a common sphere of uncertainty for all case studies, ii) the definition of three contrasting qualitative European storylines (representing developments for land sharing, land sparing and a balanced storyline), and iii) the development of three explorative case study-specific land use scenarios with regional stakeholders in workshops. Land use transition rules defined by stakeholders were used to generate three different spatially-explicit scenarios for each case study by means of high-resolution land use maps. All scenarios incorporated various aspects of land use and management to allow subsequent quantification of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity indicators. The comparison of the final scenarios showed both common as well as diverging trends among the case studies. For instance, stakeholders identified further possibilities to intensify land management in all case studies in the land sparing scenario. In addition, in most case studies stakeholders agreed on the most preferred scenario, i.e. either land sharing or balanced, and the most likely one, i.e. balanced. However, they expressed some skepticism regarding the general plausibility of land sparing in a European context. It can be concluded that stakeholder perceptions and the local context can be integrated in land sharing and land sparing contexts subject to particular process design principles.

Perspectives of farmers and tourists on agricultural abandonment in east Lesvos, Greece.

Multi-stakeholder perceptions of landscape changes are increasingly recognized as essential inputs to discussions on future landscape developments, particularly when addressing the future of European rural areas experiencing agricultural abandonment. This research presents a case exploration of abandonment of olive plantations in east Lesvos, Greece. We conducted two sets of semi-structured interviews to relate an exploration on local farmers' ability and willingness to maintain the plantations, to the results of a landscape preference survey undertaken with tourists. Three farmer types are identified following a cluster analysis based on attributes of individual ability and willingness to farm. Farmers belonging to the prevalent type revealed low ability and willingness and expect to further extensify their farms. The remaining two farmer types have higher willingness; they are motivated by cultural reasons, more frequently expressing a desire to maintain their land under family ownership, and partake in social cooperative initiatives promoting practices valorizing the olive plantations. We outline how these types interact with regional drivers of change, and partly also contribute to persistence of abandonment through constrained ability to farm. Abandonment does not align with current landscape preferences of tourists, who favor cultivated landscapes, elements of traditionality within built infrastructure and undertake nature-based activities. We discuss how high willingness to farm associated with professional and pluri-active forms of farming may however provide opportunities to maintain the cultivated landscape and synergize with (agri-)tourism demand. Our findings are comparable to those of other European studies, contributing to discussions on the future of its rural landscapes.

Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe.

Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model-based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above-ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1-km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old-growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr(-1) (98 TgC yr(-1) in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr(-1) in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.

Aligning agri-environmental-climate public good supply and desire in a sustainable Dutch agricultural sector.

European agricultural policies increasingly incorporate mechanisms for delivery of public goods. Sustainable public good delivery requires alignment between societal demand and landscape supply. However, the variation of demands or desires regarding future public good delivery among society is hardly known. We inventoried the desires for public goods across Dutch society, and projections of agricultural supply. A multi-method approach was used to find agreement levels between desired and expected change in good delivery. Most stakeholders expressed a desire for biodiversity and climate regulation from agriculture, whilst desire for natural heritage and recreation was less common. The utility of a public good to a stakeholder appears to influence its desire. Scenarios for agriculture focus on extensification, sustainable intensification, regionalization, or meadow bird conservation. Regionalized scenarios showed the highest agreement between public good supply and desire. Maximizing alignment between desire and supply thus requires a challenging transition towards region-specific agricultural sustainability strategies.

Improving national-scale carbon stock inventories using knowledge on land use history.

National-scale inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks have a high uncertainty. Inventories are often based on the interpolation of sampled information, often using a number of covariables to help such interpolation. The rationale for the choice of these covariables is not always documented, despite the fact that many local-scale studies have identified the factors explaining spatial variability of SOC and FFC stocks. These studies indicate, among others the importance of long-term land use history. Despite this, information on the effects of land use history has never been used to explain variability of carbon stocks in national-scale inventories. We designed an alternative method to improve national-scale inventories of SOC and FCC for the Dutch sand area that takes stock of the findings of detailed case studies. Determinants for SOC and FFC stocks derived from landscape-scale case studies were used to map national-scale spatial variability and to calculate national totals. The resulting national-scale spatial distribution was compared with the SOC stock map from the current Dutch greenhouse gas inventory. Using land use history to explain SOC variability decreased the error of the SOC stock estimate in 60 % of the area. The error in FFC stocks decreased in half of the forest area after including soil fertility, tree species, and forest age as explanatory factors. Estimates with reduced uncertainty will make land use and land management a more attractive and acceptable mitigation option to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for the LULUCF sector.

Assessing the contribution of mobility in the European Union to rubber expansion.

Nearly three-quarters of global natural rubber production is used to produce tyres, supporting mobility around the globe. The projected increase in mobility could contribute to further expansion of rubber plantations and impact tropical ecosystems. We quantified the use of natural rubber in tyres in the European Union (EU), the corresponding land footprint, and explored drivers of tyre use using country-specific transport statistics and trade registers of rubber goods. Five percent of the world's natural rubber is consumed in tyres used in the EU, using up to a quarter of the area under rubber plantations in some producing countries. Car use is responsible for 58% of this consumption, due to car-dependent lifestyles that are associated with economic prosperity and spatial planning paradigms. While the EU's transport policy focuses on reducing dependence on fossil-fuels, cross-cutting policies are needed to address car-dependency and reduce the EU's land footprint in tropical landscapes without compromising progress towards decarbonisation.

Uncertainties in ecosystem service maps: a comparison on the European scale.

Safeguarding the benefits that ecosystems provide to society is increasingly included as a target in international policies. To support such policies, ecosystem service maps are made. However, there is little attention for the accuracy of these maps. We made a systematic review and quantitative comparison of ecosystem service maps on the European scale to generate insights in the uncertainty of ecosystem service maps and discuss the possibilities for quantitative validation. Maps of climate regulation and recreation were reasonably similar while large uncertainties among maps of erosion protection and flood regulation were observed. Pollination maps had a moderate similarity. Differences among the maps were caused by differences in indicator definition, level of process understanding, mapping aim, data sources and methodology. Absence of suitable observed data on ecosystem services provisioning hampers independent validation of the maps. Consequently, there are, so far, no accurate measures for ecosystem service map quality. Policy makers and other users need to be cautious when applying ecosystem service maps for decision-making. The results illustrate the need for better process understanding and data acquisition to advance ecosystem service mapping, modelling and validation.