Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia.

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

NO2 air pollution drives species composition, but tree traits drive species diversity of urban epiphytic lichen communities.

Lichens serve as important bioindicators of air pollution in cities. Here, we studied the diversity of epiphytic lichens in the urban area of Munich, Bavaria, southern Germany, to determine which factors influence species composition and diversity. Lichen diversity was quantified in altogether 18 plots and within each, five deciduous trees were investigated belonging to on average three tree species (range 1-5). Of the 18 plots, two were sampled in control areas in remote areas of southern Germany. For each lichen species, frequency of occurrence was determined in 10 quadrats of 100 cm2 on the tree trunk. Moreover, the cover percentage of bryophytes was determined and used as a variable to represent potential biotic competition. We related our diversity data (species richness, Shannon index, evenness, abundance) to various environmental variables including tree traits, i.e. bark pH levels and species affiliation and air pollution data, i.e. NO2 and SO2 concentrations measured in the study plots. The SO2 levels measured in our study were generally very low, while NO2 levels were rather high in some plots. We found that the species composition of the epiphytic lichen communities was driven mainly by NO2 pollution levels and all of the most common species in our study were nitrophilous lichens. Low NO2 but high SO2 values were associated with high lichen evenness. Tree-level lichen diversity and abundance were mainly determined by tree traits, not air pollution. These results confirm that ongoing NO2 air pollution within cities is a major threat to lichen diversity, with non-nitrophilous lichens likely experiencing the greatest risk of local extinctions in urban areas in the future. Our study moreover highlights the importance of large urban green spaces for species diversity. City planners need to include large green spaces when designing urban areas, both to improve biodiversity and to promote human health and wellbeing.