Water Supply Planning in the Face of Drought and Ecosystem Flows: Examining the Impact of the Bay-Delta Plan on Bay Area Water Supply.

In California, recent Bay-Delta Plan legislation attempts to balance water supply and ecosystem protection by requiring 40% of the flow to remain in-stream in the Tuolumne River from February through June. Serious questions remain about what this means for the Bay Area water supply, especially during drought. Our work develops a new approach to analyze how in-stream flow policy coupled with climate change could impact regional water supply over the coming decades. Results show that the new in-stream flow demand would exceed urban water deliveries in a typical year. In wet years, water supply performance is minimally impacted, but in drought, the policy can lead to less water in storage, delayed reservoir recovery, and increased time at critically low storage. Storage impact exceeding 50 000 acre-feet (60 million m3) is anticipated with at least 18% frequency, demonstrating that, climate uncertainty notwithstanding, this impact must be planned for and managed to ensure a reliable future water supply.

Long-term ozone exposure and lung function in middle childhood.

BACKGROUND: Ozone (O3) exposure interrupts normal lung development in animal models. Epidemiologic evidence further suggests impairment with higher long-term O3 exposure across early and middle childhood, although study findings to date are mixed and few have investigated vulnerable subgroups. METHODS: Participants from the CANDLE study, a pregnancy cohort in Shelby County, TN, in the ECHO-PATHWAYS Consortium, were included if children were born at gestational age >32 weeks, completed a spirometry exam at age 8-9, and had a valid residential history from birth to age 8. We estimated lifetime average ambient O3 exposure based on each child's residential history from birth to age 8, using a validated fine-resolution spatiotemporal model. Spirometry was performed at the age 8-9 year study visit to assess Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second (FEV1) and Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) as primary outcomes; z-scores were calculated using sex-and-age-specific reference equations. Linear regression with robust variance estimators was used to examine associations between O3 exposure and continuous lung function z-scores, adjusted for child, sociodemographic, and home environmental factors. Potential susceptible subgroups were explored using a product term in the regression model to assess effect modification by child sex, history of bronchiolitis in infancy, and allergic sensitization. RESULTS: In our sample (n = 648), O3 exposure averaged from birth to age 8 was modest (mean 26.6 [SD 1.1] ppb). No adverse associations between long-term postnatal O3 exposure were observed with either FEV1 (ß = 0.12, 95% CI: -0.04, 0.29) or FVC (ß = 0.03, 95% CI: -0.13, 0.19). No effect modification by child sex, history of bronchiolitis in infancy, or allergic sensitization was detected for associations with 8-year average O3. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample with low O3 concentrations, we did not observe adverse associations between O3 exposures averaged from birth to age 8 and lung function in middle childhood.

Prenatal polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure and asthma at age 8-9 years in a multi-site longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Studies suggest prenatal exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may influence wheezing or asthma in preschool-aged children. However, the impact of prenatal PAH exposure on asthma and wheeze in middle childhood remain unclear. We investigated these associations in socio-demographically diverse participants from the ECHO PATHWAYS multi-cohort consortium. METHODS: We included 1,081 birth parent-child dyads across five U.S. cities. Maternal urinary mono-hydroxylated PAH metabolite concentrations (OH-PAH) were measured during mid-pregnancy. Asthma at age 8-9 years and wheezing trajectory across childhood were characterized by caregiver reported asthma diagnosis and asthma/wheeze symptoms. We used logistic and multinomial regression to estimate odds ratios of asthma and childhood wheezing trajectories associated with five individual OH-PAHs, adjusting for urine specific gravity, various maternal and child characteristics, study site, prenatal and postnatal smoke exposure, and birth year and season in single metabolite and mutually adjusted models. We used multiplicative interaction terms to evaluate effect modification by child sex and explored OH-PAH mixture effects through Weighted Quantile Sum regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of asthma in the study population was 10%. We found limited evidence of adverse associations between pregnancy OH-PAH concentrations and asthma or wheezing trajectories. We observed adverse associations between 1/9-hydroxyphenanthrene and asthma and persistent wheeze among girls, and evidence of inverse associations with asthma for 1-hydroxynathpthalene, which was stronger among boys, though tests for effect modification by child sex were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, multi-site cohort, we did not find strong evidence of an association between prenatal exposure to PAHs and child asthma at age 8-9 years, though some adverse associations were observed among girls.

Associations between area-level arsenic exposure and adverse birth outcomes: An Echo-wide cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water is a common source of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In the US, the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) was enacted to protect consumers from exposure to contaminants, including arsenic, in public water systems (PWS). The reproductive effects of preconception and prenatal arsenic exposure in regions with low to moderate arsenic concentrations are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: This study examined associations between preconception and prenatal exposure to arsenic violations in water, measured via residence in a county with an arsenic violation in a regulated PWS during pregnancy, and five birth outcomes: birth weight, gestational age at birth, preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), and large for gestational age (LGA). METHODS: Data for arsenic violations in PWS, defined as concentrations exceeding 10 parts per billion, were obtained from the Safe Drinking Water Information System. Participants of the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes Cohort Study were matched to arsenic violations by time and location based on residential history data. Multivariable, mixed effects regression models were used to assess the relationship between preconception and prenatal exposure to arsenic violations in drinking water and birth outcomes. RESULTS: Compared to unexposed infants, continuous exposure to arsenic from three months prior to conception through birth was associated with 88.8 g higher mean birth weight (95% CI: 8.2, 169.5), after adjusting for individual-level confounders. No statistically significant associations were observed between any preconception or prenatal violations exposure and gestational age at birth, preterm birth, SGA, or LGA. CONCLUSIONS: Our study did not identify associations between preconception and prenatal arsenic exposure, defined by drinking water exceedances, and adverse birth outcomes. Exposure to arsenic violations in drinking water was associated with higher birth weight. Future studies would benefit from more precise geodata of water system service areas, direct household drinking water measurements, and exposure biomarkers.

Prenatal exposure to ambient fine particulate matter and child lung function in the CANDLE cohort.

BACKGROUND: Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure adversely impacts child airway health; however, research on prenatal PM2.5 exposure, and child lung function is limited. We investigated these associations in the ECHO-PATHWAYS Consortium, focusing on the role of exposure timing during different phases of fetal lung development. METHODS: We included 675 children in the CANDLE cohort born between 2007 and 2011 in Memphis, TN, USA. Prenatal exposure to ambient PM2.5 was estimated using a spatiotemporal model based on maternal residential history and averaged over established prenatal periods of lung development. Forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were measured by spirometry at age 8-9 years. We used linear regression and Bayesian Distributed Lag Interaction Models (BDLIM) to estimate associations between exposure and lung function z-scores, adjusting for maternal/child characteristics, prenatal/postnatal tobacco exposure, and birth year/season, and evaluating effect modification by child sex and allergic sensitization. RESULTS: The average ambient concentration of PM2.5 during pregnancy was 11.1 µg/m3 (standard deviation:1.0 µg/m3). In the adjusted linear regression and BDLIM models, adverse, but not statistically significant, associations were observed between exposure during the pseudoglandular (5-16 weeks of gestation) and saccular (24-36 weeks) phases of lung development and FEV1 and FVC. The strongest association was between a 2 µg/m3 higher concentration of PM2.5 during the saccular phase and FEV1 z-score (-0.176, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -0.361, 0.010). The FEV1/FVC ratio was not associated with PM2.5 in any exposure window. No effect modification by child sex or allergic sensitization was observed. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find strong evidence of associations between prenatal ambient PM2.5 exposure and child lung function in a large, well-characterized study sample. However, there was a suggested adverse association between FEV1 and exposure during late pregnancy. The saccular phase of lung development might be an important window for exposure to PM2.5.

Associations of prenatal ambient air pollution exposures with asthma in middle childhood.

We examined associations between prenatal fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) exposures and child respiratory outcomes through age 8-9 years in 1279 ECHO-PATHWAYS Consortium mother-child dyads. We averaged spatiotemporally modeled air pollutant exposures during four fetal lung development phases: pseudoglandular (5-16 weeks), canalicular (16-24 weeks), saccular (24-36 weeks), and alveolar (36+ weeks). We estimated adjusted relative risks (RR) for current asthma at age 8-9 and asthma with recent exacerbation or atopic disease, and odds ratios (OR) for wheezing trajectories using modified Poisson and multinomial logistic regression, respectively. Effect modification by child sex, maternal asthma, and prenatal environmental tobacco smoke was explored. Across all outcomes, 95% confidence intervals (CI) included the null for all estimates of associations between prenatal air pollution exposures and respiratory outcomes. Pseudoglandular PM2.5 exposure modestly increased risk of current asthma (RRadj = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.88-1.51); canalicular PM2.5 exposure modestly increased risk of asthma with recent exacerbation (RRadj = 1.26, 95% CI: 0.86-1.86) and persistent wheezing (ORadj = 1.28, 95% CI: 0.86-1.89). Similar findings were observed for O3, but not NO2, and associations were strengthened among mothers without asthma. While not statistically distinguishable from the null, trends in effect estimates suggest some adverse associations of early pregnancy air pollution exposures with child respiratory conditions, warranting confirmation in larger samples.

Association between maternal occupational exposure to cleaning chemicals during pregnancy and childhood wheeze and asthma.

Background: Asthma is a leading cause of childhood morbidity in the U.S. and a significant public health concern. The prenatal period is a critical window during which environmental influences, including maternal occupational exposures, can shape child respiratory health. Cleaning chemicals are commonly encountered in occupational settings, yet few studies have examined the potential link between prenatal occupational exposures to cleaning chemicals and risk of childhood wheeze and asthma. Methods: We evaluated the potential influence of maternal occupational exposure to cleaning chemicals during pregnancy on pediatric asthma and wheeze at child age 4-6 years in 453 mother-child pairs from two longitudinal pregnancy cohorts, TIDES and GAPPS, part of the ECHO prenatal and early childhood pathways to health (ECHO-PATHWAYS) consortium. Maternal occupational exposure to cleaning chemicals was defined based on reported occupation and frequency of occupational use of chemicals during pregnancy. Child current wheeze and asthma outcomes were defined by parental responses to a widely-used, standardized respiratory outcomes questionnaire administered at child age 4-6 years. Multivariable Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate relative risk (RR) of asthma in models adjusted for confounding. Effect modification by child sex was assessed using product interaction terms. Results: Overall, 116 mothers (25.6%) reported occupational exposure to cleaning chemicals during pregnancy, 11.7% of children had current wheeze, and 10.2% had current asthma. We did not identify associations between prenatal exposure to cleaning chemicals and current wheeze [RRadjusted 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56, 1.90] or current asthma (RRadjusted 0.89, CI: 0.46, 1.74) in the overall sample. Analyses of effect modification suggested an adverse association among females for current wheeze (RR 1.82, CI: 0.76, 4.37), compared to males (RR 0.68, CI: 0.29, 1.58), though the interaction p-value was >0.05. Conclusion: We did not observe evidence of associations between maternal prenatal occupational exposure to cleaning chemicals and childhood wheeze or asthma in the multi-site ECHO-PATHWAYS consortium. We leveraged longitudinal U.S. pregnancy cohorts with rich data characterization to expand on limited and mixed literature. Ongoing research is needed to more precisely characterize maternal occupational chemical exposures and impacts on child health in larger studies.

Prenatal polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure and asthma at age 8-9 years in a multi-site longitudinal study.

Background and aim: Studies suggest prenatal exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may influence wheezing or asthma in preschool-aged children. However, the impact of prenatal PAH exposure on asthma and wheeze in middle childhood remain unclear. We investigated these associations in diverse participants from the ECHO PATHWAYS multi-cohort consortium. Methods: We included 1,081 birth parent-child dyads across five U.S. cities. Maternal urinary mono-hydroxylated PAH metabolite concentrations (OH-PAH) were measured during mid-pregnancy. Asthma at age 8-9 years and wheezing trajectory across childhood were characterized by caregiver reported asthma diagnosis and asthma/wheeze symptoms. We used logistic and multinomial regression to estimate odds ratios of asthma and childhood wheezing trajectories associated with five individual OH-PAHs, adjusting for urine specific gravity, various maternal and child characteristics, study site, prenatal and postnatal smoke exposure, and birth year and season in single metabolite and mutually adjusted models. We used multiplicative interaction terms to evaluate effect modification by child sex and explored OH-PAH mixture effects through Weighted Quantile Sum regression. Results: The prevalence of asthma in the study population was 10%. We found limited evidence of adverse associations between pregnancy OH-PAH concentrations and asthma or wheezing trajectories. We observed adverse associations between 1/9-hydroxyphenanthrene and asthma and persistent wheeze among girls, and evidence of inverse associations with asthma for 1-hydroxynathpthalene, which was stronger among boys, though tests for effect modification by child sex were not statistically. Conclusions: In a large, multi-site cohort, we did not find strong evidence of an association between prenatal exposure to PAHs and child asthma at age 8-9 years, though some adverse associations were observed among girls.

Nitrate in Drinking Water during Pregnancy and Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A Retrospective Within-Mother Analysis in California.

BACKGROUND: Nitrate is a widespread groundwater contaminant and a leading cause of drinking water quality violations in California. Associations between nitrate exposure and select adverse birth outcomes have been suggested, but few studies have examined gestational exposures to nitrate and risk of preterm birth (before 37 wk gestation). OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between elevated nitrate in drinking water and spontaneous preterm birth through a within-mother retrospective cohort study of births in California. METHODS: We acquired over 6 million birth certificate records linked with Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development hospital discharge data for California births from 2000-2011. We used public water system monitoring records to estimate nitrate concentrations in drinking water for each woman's residence during gestation. After exclusions, we constructed a sample of 1,443,318 consecutive sibling births in order to conduct a within-mother analysis. We used separate conditional logistic regression models to estimate the odds of preterm birth at 20-31 and 32-36 wk, respectively, among women whose nitrate exposure changed between consecutive pregnancies. RESULTS: Spontaneous preterm birth at 20-31 wk was increased in association with tap water nitrate concentrations during pregnancy of 5 to <10mg/L [odds ratio (OR)=1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 1.67] and ≥10mg/L (OR=2.52; 95% CI: 1.49, 4.26) compared with <5mg/L (as nitrogen). Corresponding estimates for spontaneous preterm birth at 32-36 wk were positive but close to the null for 5 to <10mg/L nitrate (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.15) and for ≥10mg/L nitrate (OR=1.05; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.31) vs. <5mg/L nitrate. Our findings were similar in several secondary and sensitivity analyses, including in a conventional individual-level design. DISCUSSION: The results suggest that nitrate in drinking water is associated with increased odds of spontaneous preterm birth. Notably, we estimated modestly increased odds associated with tap water nitrate concentrations of 5 to <10mg/L (below the federal drinking water standard of 10mg/L) relative to <5mg/L. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8205.

Associations between ambient fine particulate matter and child respiratory infection: The role of particulate matter source composition in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Air pollution in the form of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been linked to adverse respiratory outcomes in children. However, the magnitude of this association in South Asia and sources of PM2.5 that drive adverse health effects are largely unknown. This study evaluates associations between short-term variation in ambient PM2.5 and incidence of pneumonia and upper respiratory infections among children in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We also perform an exploratory analysis of the PM2.5 source composition that is most strongly associated with health endpoints. We leveraged data from health surveillance of children less than five years of age between 2005 and 2014 in Kamalapur, Bangladesh, including daily physician-confirmed diagnoses of pneumonia and upper respiratory infection. Twice-weekly source-apportioned ambient PM2.5 measurements were obtained for the same period, and Poisson regression adjusted for time-varying covariates was used to estimate lagged associations between ambient PM2.5 and respiratory infection. We use complementary matching and stratification approaches to evaluate whether these associations vary across PM2.5 source composition. Total PM2.5 mass was associated with a modest increase in incidence of pneumonia, with a peak effect size two days after exposure (rate ratio = 1.032; 95% confidence interval = 1.008-1.056). We did not identify a significant association between PM2.5 and upper respiratory infection. Stratified and matching analyses suggested this association was stronger among days when ambient PM2.5 had a higher mass percent associated with brick kiln and fugitive lead emissions.: This study suggests that elevated ambient PM2.5 contributes to increased incidence of child pneumonia in urban Dhaka, and that this relationship varies among days with different source composition of PM2.5.

Oil and gas production and spontaneous preterm birth in the San Joaquin Valley, CA: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies report an association between preterm birth and exposure to unconventional oil and gas wells. There has been limited previous study on exposure to conventional wells, which are common in California. Our objective was to determine whether exposure to well sites was associated with increased odds of spontaneous preterm birth (delivery at <37 weeks). METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using data on 27,913 preterm birth cases and 197,461 term birth controls. All births were without maternal comorbidities and were located in the San Joaquin Valley, CA, between 1998 and 2011. We obtained data for 83,559 wells in preproduction or production during the study period. We assessed exposure using inverse distance-squared weighting and, for each birth and trimester, we assigned an exposure tertile. Using logistic regression, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the association between exposure to well sites and preterm birth at 20-27, 28-31, and 32-36 weeks. RESULTS: We observed increased ORs for preterm birth with high exposure to wells in the first and second trimesters for births delivered at ≤31 weeks (adjusted ORs, 1.08-1.14). In stratified analyses, the associations were confined to births to Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black women and to women with ≤12 years of educational attainment. In a secondary analysis, we found evidence that exposure to wells in preproduction is associated with higher concentrations of particulate matter. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that exposure to oil and gas well sites is associated with increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth.