Breast cancer risk in Ukrainian women exposed to Chornobyl fallout while pregnant or lactating: standardized incidence ratio analysis, 1998 to 2016.

The radiation-related risk of breast cancer among women following the Chornobyl accident remains uncertain. During pregnancy, there is rapid cell proliferation in the breast while radioactive iodine from fallout exposure can concentrate in lactating breast tissues. We conducted a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis of breast cancer in a cohort of 2,631 women who were lactating and/or pregnant at any time during the 2-month period of radioiodine fallout (April 26, 1986-June 30, 1986). There were 37,151 person-years of follow-up, and 26 incident breast cancers were identified through linkage with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine. Breast cancer rates among pregnant or lactating women were compared to the general population rates, and SIRs were adjusted for oblast, urban/rural, age, and calendar year. The SIR was not significant for women pregnant at the time of the accident (SIR = 0.75; 95% CI 0.44, 1.18) or for women lactating anytime within 2 months of the accident (SIR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.48, 1.68). However, there was a non-significantly elevated risk for women lactating at the time of accident (SIR = 1.30, 95% CI 0.40, 3.01). The increased SIR for breast cancer among lactating women is consistent with the results of a similar study in Belarus and indicates the need to quantify the radiation risk of breast cancer in a larger study of women lactating during the period of fallout exposure.

Thyroid neoplasia risk is increased nearly 30 years after the Chernobyl accident.

To evaluate risk of thyroid neoplasia nearly 30 years following exposure to radioactive iodine (I-131) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, we conducted a fifth cycle of thyroid screening of the Ukrainian-American cohort during 2012-2015, following four previous screening cycles started in 1998. We identified 47 thyroid cancers (TC) and 33 follicular adenomas (FA) among 10,073 individuals who were <18 years at the time of the accident and had a mean I-131 dose of 0.62 Gy. We found a significant I-131 dose response for both TC and FA, with an excess odd ratio per Gy of 1.36 (95% CI: 0.39-4.15) and 2.03 (95% CI: 0.55-6.69), respectively. The excess risk of malignant and benign thyroid neoplasia persists nearly three decades after exposure and underscores the importance of continued follow-up of this cohort to characterize long-term pattern of I-131 risk.

Neonatal outcomes following exposure in utero to fallout from Chernobyl.

Iodine 131 (I-131), the principal component of nuclear fallout from the Chernobyl accident, concentrates in the thyroid gland and may pose risks to fetal development. To evaluate this, neonatal outcomes following the accident in April of 1986 were investigated in a cohort of 2582 in utero-exposed individuals from northern Ukraine for whom estimates of fetal thyroid I-131 dose were available. We carried out a retrospective review of cohort members' prenatal, delivery and newborn records. The relationships of dose with neonatal anthropometrics and gestational length were modeled via linear regression with adjustment for potentially confounding variables. We found similar, statistically significant dose-dependent reductions in both head circumference (-1.0 cm/Gy, P = 0.005) and chest circumference (-0.9 cm/Gy, P = 0.023), as well as a similar but non-significant reduction in neonatal length (-0.6 cm/Gy, P = 0.169). Gestational length was significantly increased with increasing fetal dose (0.5 wks/Gy, P = 0.007). There was no significant (P > 0.1) effect of fetal dose on birth weight. The observed associations of radioiodine exposure with decreased head and chest circumference are consistent with those observed in the Japanese in utero-exposed atomic bomb survivors.

Factors associated with serum thyroglobulin in a Ukrainian cohort exposed to iodine-131 from the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant.

BACKGROUND: Serum thyroglobulin (Tg) is associated with the presence of thyroid disease and has been proposed as a biomarker of iodine status. Few studies have examined factors related to serum Tg in populations environmentally exposed to ionizing radiation and living in regions with endemic mild-to-moderate iodine deficiency. METHODS: We screened 10,430 individuals who were living in Ukraine and under 18 years of age at the time of the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident for thyroid disease from 2001 to 2003. We estimated the percent change (PC) in serum Tg associated with demographic factors, iodine-131 thyroid dose, and indicators of thyroid structure and function using linear regression. We also examined these relationships for individuals with and without indications of thyroid abnormality. RESULTS: Mean and median serum Tg levels were higher among participants with abnormal thyroid structure/function. Percent change in serum Tg increased among females, smokers and with older age (p-values<0.001), and Tg increased with increasing thyroid volume, and serum thyrotropin (p-values for trend<0.001). We found no evidence of significant associations between iodine-131 thyroid dose and Tg. Serum Tg levels were inversely associated with iodized salt intake (PC=-7.90, 95% confidence interval: -12.08, -3.52), and over the range of urinary iodine concentration, the odds of having elevated serum Tg showed a U-shaped curve with elevated Tg at low and high urinary iodine concentrations. CONCLUSION: Serum Tg may be a useful indicator of population iodine status and a non-specific biomarker of structural and functional thyroid abnormalities in epidemiological studies.

Dose-dependent expression of CLIP2 in post-Chernobyl papillary thyroid carcinomas.

A previous study on papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC) in young patients who were exposed to (131)iodine from the Chernobyl fallout revealed an exclusive gain of chromosomal band 7q11.23 in exposed cases compared to an age-matched control cohort. CLIP2, a gene located within band 7q11.23 was shown to be differentially expressed between exposed and non-exposed cases at messenger RNA and protein level. Therefore, a standardized procedure for CLIP2 typing of PTCs has been developed in a follow-up study. Here we used CLIP2 typing data on 117 post-Chernobyl PTCs from two cohorts of exposed patients with individual dose estimates and 24 non-exposed controls to investigate a possible quantitative dose-response relationship of the CLIP2 marker. The 'Genrisk-T' cohort consisted of 45 PTCs and the 'UkrAm' cohort of 72 PTCs. Both cohorts differed in mean dose (0.59 Gy Genrisk-T, 1.2 Gy UkrAm) and mean age at exposure (AaE) (2 years Genrisk-T, 8 years UkrAm), whilst the median latency (16 years Genrisk-T, 18 years UkrAm) was comparable. We analyzed the association between the binary CLIP2 typing and continuous thyroid dose with logistic regression. A clear positive dose-response relationship was found for young PTC cases [age at operation (AaO) < 20 years, AaE < 5 years]. In the elder age group a higher proportion of sporadic tumors is assumed due to a negligible dose response, suggesting different molecular mechanisms in sporadic and radiation-induced cases. This is further supported by the association of elder patients (AaO > 20 years) with positivity for BRAF V600E mutation.

Exposure to the Thyroid from Intake of Radioiodine Isotopes after the Chornobyl Accident. Report I: Revised Doses and Associated Uncertainties for the Ukrainian-American Cohort.

Thyroid doses from intake of radioiodine isotopes (131I, 132Te+132I, and 133I) and associated uncertainties were revised for the 13,204 Ukrainian-American cohort members exposed in childhood and adolescence to fallout from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. The main changes related to the revision of the 131I thyroid activity measured in cohort members, the use of thyroid-mass values specific to the Ukrainian population, and the revision of the 131I ground deposition densities in Ukraine. Uncertainties in doses were assessed considering shared and unshared errors in the parameters of the dosimetry model. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 individual stochastic thyroid doses were calculated for each cohort member. The arithmetic mean of thyroid doses from intake of 131I, 132Te+132I, and 133I for the entire cohort was 0.60 Gy (median = 0.22 Gy). For 9,474 subjects (71.6% of the total), the thyroid doses were less than 0.5 Gy. Thyroid doses for 42 cohort members (0.3% of the total) exceeded 10 Gy while the highest dose was 35 Gy. Intake of 131I contributed around 95% to internal thyroid exposure from radioiodine isotopes. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic thyroid doses varied among cohort members from 1.4 to 4.3 with an arithmetic mean of 1.6 and a median of 1.4. It was shown that the contribution of shared errors to the dose uncertainty was small. The revised thyroid doses resulted, in average, in around 40% decrease for cohort members from Zhytomyr Oblast and an increase of around 24% and 35% for the cohort members from Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblast, respectively. Arithmetic mean of TD20 doses for the cohort was around 8% less than that estimated in TD10, 0.60 Gy vs. 0.65 Gy, respectively; however, global median of TD20 doses somewhat increased compared to TD10: 0.22 Gy vs. 0.19 Gy, respectively. The difference between TD10 and TD20 was mainly due to a revision of the individual 131I thyroid activity measured in the cohort members.

Assessment of internal exposure to 131I and short-lived radioiodine isotopes and associated uncertainties in the Ukrainian cohort of persons exposed in utero.

This study revised the thyroid doses for 2582 Ukrainian in utero cohort members exposed to Chornobyl fallout (the Ukrainian in utero cohort) based on revision of: (i) 131I thyroid activity measured in the Ukrainian population, (ii) thyroid dosimetry system for entire Ukraine, and (iii) 131I ground deposition densities in Ukraine. Other major improvements included: (i) assessment of uncertainties in the thyroid doses considering shared and unshared error, and (ii) accounting for intake of short-lived radioisotopes of tellurium and iodine (132Te+132I and 133I). Intake of 131I was the major pathway for thyroid exposure, its median contribution to the thyroid dose was 97.4%. The mean prenatal and postnatal thyroid dose from 131I was 87 mGy (median = 17 mGy), higher than previous deterministic dose of 72 mGy (median = 12 mGy). For 39 individuals (1.5%) the dose exceeded 1.0 Gy, while the highest dose among the cohort members was 2.7 Gy. The geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 1000 individual stochastic doses varied from 1.9 to 5.2 with a mean of 3.1 and a median of 3.2. The lowest uncertainty (mean GSD = 2.3, median GSD = 2.2) was found for the subjects whose mothers were measured for 131I thyroid activity, while for individuals, whose mothers were not measured, the mean and median GSDs were 3.4. Uncertainties in thyroid doses were driven by shared errors associated with the parameters of the ecological model.

Thyroid Cancer and Benign Nodules After Exposure In Utero to Fallout From Chernobyl.

Background: Children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) in fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident appear to be at increased risk of thyroid cancer and benign thyroid nodules. The prenatal period is also considered radiosensitive, and the fetal thyroid can absorb I-131 from the maternal circulation. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the risk of malignant and benign thyroid nodules in individuals exposed prenatally. Methods: We studied a cohort of 2582 subjects in Ukraine with estimates of I-131 prenatal thyroid dose (mean = 72.6 mGy), who underwent two standardized thyroid screening examinations. To evaluate the dose-response relationship, we estimated the excess OR (EOR) using logistic regression. Results: Based on a combined total of eight cases diagnosed at screenings from 2003 to 2006 and 2012 to 2015, we found a markedly elevated, albeit not statistically significant, dose-related risk of thyroid cancer (EOR/Gy = 3.91, 95% CI: -1.49, 65.66). At cycle 2 (n = 1,786), there was a strong and significant association between I-131 thyroid dose and screen-detected large benign nodules (≥10 mm) (EOR/Gy = 4.19, 95% CI: 0.68, 11.62; P = 0.009), but no significant increase in risk for small nodules (<10 mm) (EOR/Gy = 0.34, 95% CI: -0.67, 2.24; P = 0.604). Conclusions: The dose effect by nodule size, with I-131 risk for large but not small nodules, is similar to that among exposed children and adolescents in Belarus. Based on a small number of cases, there is also a suggestive effect of I-131 dose on thyroid cancer risk.

A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: dose-response analysis of thyroid follicular adenomas detected during first screening in Ukraine (1998-2000).

The Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident in 1986 exposed many individuals to radioactive iodines, chiefly (131)I, the effects of which on benign thyroid diseases are largely unknown. To investigate the risk of follicular adenoma in relation to radiation dose after Chornobyl, the authors analyzed the baseline data from a prospective screening cohort study of those exposed as children or adolescents. A stratified random sample was selected from all individuals who were younger than 18 years, had thyroid radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, and resided in the three heavily contaminated areas in Ukraine. This analysis is based on the 23 cases diagnosed in 12,504 subjects for whom personal history of thyroid diseases was known. The dose-response relation was linear with an excess relative risk of 2.07 per gray (95% confidence interval: 0.28, 10.31). The risk was significantly higher in women compared with men, with no clear modifying effects of age at exposure. In conclusion, persons exposed to radioactive iodines as children and adolescents have an increased risk of follicular adenoma, though it is smaller than the risk of thyroid cancer in the same cohort. Compared with results from other studies, this estimate is somewhat smaller, but confidence intervals overlap, suggesting compatibility.

Differences in sonographic conspicuity according to papillary thyroid cancer subtype: results of the Ukrainian-American cohort study after the Chornobyl accident.

OBJECTIVE: Over time, the histology of papillary thyroid cancers detected in a repeatedly screened population exposed to radiation at Chornobyl (Chernobyl) has shifted from a more aggressive subtype toward less aggressive subtypes. This change may reflect biologic behavior but could also be influenced by the detectability of different subtypes. The study objective was to identify whether there is any relationship between the conspicuity of sonographically detected papillary cancers and histologic subtype. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sonographic images of 84 papillary cancers occurring in young people exposed to radiation at Chornobyl were each given a conspicuity score using a subjective 1-5 scale by four independent expert readers blinded to histologic subtype. The effects of tumor subtype, tumor encapsulation, reader, machine type, and nodule size on sonographic conspicuity were determined using analysis of variance and Spearman correlations. RESULTS: Cancer subtype was related to sonographic conspicuity (p < 0.01). The relatively aggressive solid subtype of papillary carcinoma was more conspicuous than the papillary, follicular, and mixed subtypes (p < 0.05). The other subtypes did not differ significantly from each other in conspicuity. Conspicuity was not significantly related to nodule size, degree of encapsulation, age and sex of the subject, or machine type. Although the mean conspicuity score for each reader differed significantly, reliability of conspicuity judgments across readers was fair. CONCLUSION: In subjects exposed to radiation from the Chornobyl accident, the solid subtype of papillary carcinoma appears to be more conspicuous on sonography than the other subtypes. Therefore, the change in subtype observed over time in this repeatedly screened population may be influenced by differences in nodule conspicuity.

Comparative Histopathologic Analysis of "Radiogenic" and "Sporadic" Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: Patients Born Before and After the Chernobyl Accident.

BACKGROUND: The issue of whether radiation-induced thyroid cancer is pathologically different from sporadic remains not fully answered. This study compared structural characteristics and invasive features of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in two age-matched groups: patients who were children (≤4 years old) at the time of the Chernobyl accident and who lived in three regions of Ukraine most contaminated by radioactive iodine 131I ("radiogenic" cancer), and those who lived in the same regions but who were born after 1987 and were not exposed to 131I ("sporadic" cancer). Further, the histopathologic features of PTC were analyzed in relation to age and individual 131I thyroid dose. METHODS: The study included 301 radiogenic and 194 sporadic PTCs. According to age at surgery, patients were subdivided into children (≤14 years old), adolescents (15-18 years old), and adults (19-28 years old). Statistical analyses included univariate tests and multivariable logistic regression within and across the age subgroups. Analyses of morphological features related to 131I doses were conducted among exposed patients on categorical and continuous scales controlling for sex and age. RESULTS: Among children, radiogenic PTC displayed a significantly higher frequency of tumors with a dominant solid growth pattern, intrathyroidal spread, extrathyroidal extension, lymphatic/vascular invasion, and distant metastases. Exposed adolescents more frequently displayed extrathyroidal extension, lymphatic/vascular invasion, and distant metastases. Exposed adults more frequently had intrathyroidal spread and extrathyroidal extension. The frequency of PTC with dominant papillary pattern and oxyphilic cell metaplasia was significantly lower in radiogenic compared to sporadic tumors for all age groups. Manifestations of tumor aggressiveness were most frequent in children compared to adolescents and adults regardless of etiology. CONCLUSIONS: Radiogenic PTC is less likely to demonstrate a dominant papillary growth pattern and more likely to display more aggressive tumor behavior than sporadic PTC. Histopathologic tumor aggressiveness declines with patient age in both radiogenic and sporadic cases.

Factors associated with elevated serum concentrations of anti-TPO antibodies in subjects with and without diffuse goitre. Results from the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases following the Chornobyl accident.

OBJECTIVES: To examine factors associated with the prevalence of elevated anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies (ATPO) among iodine-deficient adolescents and young adults and test whether associations vary according to the presence of diffuse goitre. DESIGN: Subjects were members of the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study exposed to the Chornobyl accident whose (131)I thyroid dose estimates were below 0.2 Gy. MEASUREMENTS: The odds ratios (ORs) for ATPO above 60 U/ml were estimated using logistic regression models for a number of factors in the total population (N = 5133), and separately for thyroid disease-free subjects (N = 3875), those with diffuse goitre (N = 921), and diffuse goitre without autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT; N = 883). RESULTS: Elevated ATPO was found in 9.9% of the total population and ORs were significantly higher in females, older individuals, those examined in earlier calendar years, residents of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts, subjects with a family history of thyroid disease, higher thyroid ultrasound volume, suppressed or elevated TSH, blood collection in March to May, very low thyroglobulin (Tg), and shorter serum storage time. When thyroid disease-free subjects and those with diffuse goitre were compared, there were few differences in antibody prevalence, and after excluding individuals with AIT, the only difference was an increased prevalence of elevated ATPO at low urinary iodine in those with goitre alone. CONCLUSIONS: Although a number of factors are associated with the prevalence of elevated ATPO in our study group, with the exception of urinary iodine these factors are independent of goitre, and differences between thyroid disease-free subjects and those with diffuse goitre are largely due to AIT.

Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on estimates of thyroid cancer risk among Ukrainian children and adolescents exposed from the Chernobyl accident.

The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-response patterns were examined in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 13,127 persons aged <18 at the time of the accident who were resident in the most radioactively contaminated regions of Ukraine. We extended earlier analyses in this cohort by adjusting for dose error in the recently developed TD-10 dosimetry. Three methods of statistical correction, via two types of regression calibration, and Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood, were applied to the doses that can be derived from the ratio of thyroid activity to thyroid mass. The two components that make up this ratio have different types of error, Berkson error for thyroid mass and classical error for thyroid activity. The first regression-calibration method yielded estimates of excess odds ratio of 5.78 Gy(-1) (95% CI 1.92, 27.04), about 7% higher than estimates unadjusted for dose error. The second regression-calibration method gave an excess odds ratio of 4.78 Gy(-1) (95% CI 1.64, 19.69), about 11% lower than unadjusted analysis. The Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood method produced an excess odds ratio of 4.93 Gy(-1) (95% CI 1.67, 19.90), about 8% lower than unadjusted analysis. There are borderline-significant (p = 0.101-0.112) indications of downward curvature in the dose response, allowing for which nearly doubled the low-dose linear coefficient. In conclusion, dose-error adjustment has comparatively modest effects on regression parameters, a consequence of the relatively small errors, of a mixture of Berkson and classical form, associated with thyroid dose assessment.

I-131 dose response for incident thyroid cancers in Ukraine related to the Chornobyl accident.

BACKGROUND: Current knowledge about Chornobyl-related thyroid cancer risks comes from ecological studies based on grouped doses, case-control studies, and studies of prevalent cancers. OBJECTIVE: To address this limitation, we evaluated the dose-response relationship for incident thyroid cancers using measurement-based individual iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid dose estimates in a prospective analytic cohort study. METHODS: The cohort consists of individuals < 18 years of age on 26 April 1986 who resided in three contaminated oblasts (states) of Ukraine and underwent up to four thyroid screening examinations between 1998 and 2007 (n = 12,514). Thyroid doses of I-131 were estimated based on individual radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, environmental transport models, and interview data. Excess radiation risks were estimated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Sixty-five incident thyroid cancers were diagnosed during the second through fourth screenings and 73,004 person-years (PY) of observation. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity on relative and absolute scales, although the excess relative risk (ERR) model described data better than did the excess absolute risk (EAR) model. The ERR per gray was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.43-6.34], and the EAR per 104 PY/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI, 0.04-5.78). The ERR per gray varied significantly by oblast of residence but not by time since exposure, use of iodine prophylaxis, iodine status, sex, age, or tumor size. CONCLUSIONS: I-131-related thyroid cancer risks persisted for two decades after exposure, with no evidence of decrease during the observation period. The radiation risks, although smaller, are compatible with those of retrospective and ecological post-Chornobyl studies.

Frequency of undetected thyroid nodules in a large I-131-exposed population repeatedly screened by ultrasonography: results from the Ukrainian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases following the Chornobyl accident.

BACKGROUND: Imperfect detection on screening tests can lead to erroneous conclusions about the natural history of thyroid nodules following radiation exposure. Our objective was to assess in a repeatedly screened I-131-exposed population the frequency with which a thyroid nodule could be retrospectively identified on ultrasonography studies preceding the one on which it was initially detected. METHODS: A cohort of over 13,000 young people exposed to fallout from Chornobyl underwent ultrasonography screening at 2-year intervals from 1998 to 2007. The study group consisted of screening examinations on which a thyroid nodule was detected following one or more prior negative examinations. In the study group there were 48 cancers and 92 benign nodules. For each of these 140 index studies a comparison set was created containing all available prior studies plus (to test for bias) negative studies from control subjects. While viewing the index study, three independent reviewers scored the comparison studies for the presence and size of a preexisting nodule. Detection rates were compared for true priors versus controls, for cancer versus benign, and for histologic subtypes of papillary carcinoma. RESULTS: A preexisting nodule was identified by at least one reviewer in 24.0% of the true prior versus 8.3% of the controls and by all three reviewers in 11% versus 1% (Fisher's exact test, p < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in detection rates between cancers and benign nodules (22.4% vs. 24.7%, p = 0.411). There was no correlation between time from prior to index study and change in nodule size for either malignant or benign nodules (r = 0.01, NS). There were no differences in detection rates or size among papillary cancer subtypes. Reviewers could not distinguish between true priors and controls. CONCLUSIONS: These findings, showing significant rates of undetected benign and malignant nodules and no evidence for rapid growth, suggest that conclusions drawn from screening studies about the frequency of late-developing, rapidly growing thyroid nodules following radiation exposure should be interpreted with caution.

A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the chornobyl accident: thyroid cancer in Ukraine detected during first screening.

BACKGROUND: The Chornobyl accident in 1986 exposed thousands of people to radioactive iodine isotopes, particularly (131)I; this exposure was followed by a large increase in thyroid cancer among those exposed as children and adolescents, particularly in Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Here we report the results of the first cohort study of thyroid cancer among those exposed as children and adolescents following the Chornobyl accident. METHODS: A cohort of 32 385 individuals younger than 18 years of age and resident in the most heavily contaminated areas in Ukraine at the time of the accident was invited to be screened for any thyroid pathology by ultrasound and palpation between 1998 and 2000; 13 127 individuals (44%) were actually screened. Individual estimates of radiation dose to the thyroid were available for all screenees based on radioactivity measurements made shortly after the accident and on interview data. The excess relative risk per gray (Gy) was estimated using individual doses and a linear excess relative risk model. RESULTS: Forty-five pathologically confirmed cases of thyroid cancer were found during the 1998-2000 screening. Thyroid cancer showed a strong, monotonic, and approximately linear relationship with individual thyroid dose estimate (P<.001), yielding an estimated excess relative risk of 5.25 per Gy (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.70 to 27.5). Greater age at exposure was associated with decreased risk of radiation-related thyroid cancer, although this interaction effect was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Exposure to radioactive iodine was strongly associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer among those exposed as children and adolescents. In the absence of Chornobyl radiation, 11.2 thyroid cancer cases would have been expected compared with the 45 observed, i.e., a reduction of 75% (95% CI = 50% to 93%). The study also provides quantitative risk estimates minimally confounded by any screening effects. Caution should be exercised in generalizing these results to any future similar accidents because of the potential differences in the nature of the radioactive iodines involved, the duration and temporal patterns of exposures, and the susceptibility of the exposed population.