Asymptomatic infection with clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in carnivore pets, Italy, April 2023.

In April 2023, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses carrying the T271A mammalian adaptive mutation in the PB2 protein was detected in a backyard poultry farm in Italy. Five domestic dogs and one cat living on the premises had seroconverted in the absence of clinical signs. Virological and serological monitoring of individuals exposed to the virus proved the absence of human transmission, however, asymptomatic influenza A(H5N1) infections in mammalian pets may have important public health implications.

Estimating the Directional Spread of Epidemics in Their Early Stages Using a Simple Regression Approach: A Study on African Swine Fever in Northern Italy.

The early identification of the spreading patterns of an epidemic infectious disease is an important first step towards the adoption of effective interventions. We developed a simple regression-based method to estimate the directional speed of a disease's spread, which can be easily applied with a limited dataset. We tested the method using simulation tools, then applied it on a real case study of an African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak identified in late 2021 in northwestern Italy. Simulations showed that, when carcass detection rates were <0.1, the model produced negatively biased estimates of the ASF-affected area, with the average bias being about -10%. When detection rates were >0.1, the model produced asymptotically unbiased and progressively more predictable estimates. The model produced rather different estimates of ASF's spreading speed in different directions of northern Italy, with the average speed ranging from 33 to 90 m/day. The resulting ASF-infected areas of the outbreak were estimated to be 2216 km2, about 80% bigger than the ones identified only thorough field-collected carcasses. Additionally, we estimated that the actual initial date of the ASF outbreak was 145 days earlier than the day of first notification. We recommend the use of this or similar inferential tools as a quick, initial way to assess an epidemic's patterns in its early stages and inform quick and timely management actions.

Development of a transboundary model of livestock disease in Europe.

Epidemiological models of notifiable livestock disease are typically framed at a national level and targeted for specific diseases. There are inherent difficulties in extending models beyond national borders as details of the livestock population, production systems and marketing systems of neighbouring countries are not always readily available. It can also be a challenge to capture heterogeneities in production systems, control policies, and response resourcing across multiple countries, in a single transboundary model. In this paper, we describe EuFMDiS, a continental-scale modelling framework for transboundary animal disease, specifically designed to support emergency animal disease planning in Europe. EuFMDiS simulates the spread of livestock disease within and between countries and allows control policies to be enacted and resourced on a per-country basis. It provides a sophisticated decision support tool that can be used to look at the risk of disease introduction, establishment and spread; control approaches in terms of effectiveness and costs; resource management; and post-outbreak management issues.