Does Antibiotic Resistance Evolve in Hospitals?

Nosocomial outbreaks of bacteria are well documented. Based on these incidents, and the heavy usage of antibiotics in hospitals, it has been assumed that antibiotic resistance evolves in hospital environments. To test this assumption, we studied resistance phenotypes of bacteria collected from patient isolates at a community hospital over a 2.5-year period. A graphical model analysis shows no association between resistance and patient information other than time of arrival. This allows us to focus on time-course data. We introduce a hospital transmission model, based on negative binomial delay. Our main contribution is a statistical hypothesis test called the Nosocomial Evolution of Resistance Detector (NERD). It calculates the significance of resistance trends occurring in a hospital. It can inform hospital staff about the effects of various practices and interventions, can help detect clonal outbreaks, and is available as an R package. We applied the NERD method to each of the 16 antibiotics in the study via 16 hypothesis tests. For 13 of the antibiotics, we found that the hospital environment had no significant effect on the evolution of resistance; the hospital is merely a piece of the larger picture. The p-values obtained for the other three antibiotics (cefepime, ceftazidime, and gentamicin) indicate that particular care should be taken in hospital practices with these antibiotics. One of the three, ceftazidime, was significant after accounting for multiple hypotheses, indicating a trend of decreased resistance for this drug.

Algebraic Systems Biology: A Case Study for the Wnt Pathway.

Steady-state analysis of dynamical systems for biological networks gives rise to algebraic varieties in high-dimensional spaces whose study is of interest in their own right. We demonstrate this for the shuttle model of the Wnt signaling pathway. Here, the variety is described by a polynomial system in 19 unknowns and 36 parameters. It has degree 9 over the parameter space. This case study explores multistationarity, model comparison, dynamics within regions of the state space, identifiability, and parameter estimation, from a geometric point of view. We employ current methods from computational algebraic geometry, polyhedral geometry, and combinatorics.

Reconstructing spatiotemporal gene expression data from partial observations.

MOTIVATION: Developmental transcriptional networks in plants and animals operate in both space and time. To understand these transcriptional networks it is essential to obtain whole-genome expression data at high spatiotemporal resolution. Substantial amounts of spatial and temporal microarray expression data previously have been obtained for the Arabidopsis root; however, these two dimensions of data have not been integrated thoroughly. Complicating this integration is the fact that these data are heterogeneous and incomplete, with observed expression levels representing complex spatial or temporal mixtures. RESULTS: Given these partial observations, we present a novel method for reconstructing integrated high-resolution spatiotemporal data. Our method is based on a new iterative algorithm for finding approximate roots to systems of bilinear equations. AVAILABILITY: Source code for solving bilinear equations is available at http://math.berkeley.edu/ approximately dustin/bilinear/. Visualizations of reconstructed patterns on a schematic Arabidopsis root are available at http://www.arexdb.org/.

Siphons in chemical reaction networks.

Siphons in a chemical reaction system are subsets of the species that have the potential of being absent in a steady state. We present a characterization of minimal siphons in terms of primary decomposition of binomial ideals, we explore the underlying geometry, and we demonstrate the effective computation of siphons using computer algebra software. This leads to a new method for determining whether given initial concentrations allow for various boundary steady states.

The cyclohedron test for finding periodic genes in time course expression studies.

The problem of finding periodically expressed genes from time course microarray experiments is at the center of numerous efforts to identify the molecular components of biological clocks. We present a new approach to this problem based on the cyclohedron test, which is a rank test inspired by recent advances in algebraic combinatorics. The test has the advantage of being robust to measurement errors, and can be used to ascertain the significance of top-ranked genes. We apply the test to recently published measurements of gene expression during mouse somitogenesis and find 32 genes that collectively are significant. Among these are previously identified periodic genes involved in the Notch/FGF and Wnt signaling pathways, as well as novel candidate genes that may play a role in regulating the segmentation clock. These results confirm that there are an abundance of exceptionally periodic genes expressed during somitogenesis. The emphasis of this paper is on the statistics and combinatorics that underlie the cyclohedron test and its implementation within a multiple testing framework.

Analysis of epistatic interactions and fitness landscapes using a new geometric approach.

BACKGROUND: Understanding interactions between mutations and how they affect fitness is a central problem in evolutionary biology that bears on such fundamental issues as the structure of fitness landscapes and the evolution of sex. To date, analyses of fitness landscapes have focused either on the overall directional curvature of the fitness landscape or on the distribution of pairwise interactions. In this paper, we propose and employ a new mathematical approach that allows a more complete description of multi-way interactions and provides new insights into the structure of fitness landscapes. RESULTS: We apply the mathematical theory of gene interactions developed by Beerenwinkel et al. to a fitness landscape for Escherichia coli obtained by Elena and Lenski. The genotypes were constructed by introducing nine mutations into a wild-type strain and constructing a restricted set of 27 double mutants. Despite the absence of mutants higher than second order, our analysis of this genotypic space points to previously unappreciated gene interactions, in addition to the standard pairwise epistasis. Our analysis confirms Elena and Lenski's inference that the fitness landscape is complex, so that an overall measure of curvature obscures a diversity of interaction types. We also demonstrate that some mutations contribute disproportionately to this complexity. In particular, some mutations are systematically better than others at mixing with other mutations. We also find a strong correlation between epistasis and the average fitness loss caused by deleterious mutations. In particular, the epistatic deviations from multiplicative expectations tend toward more positive values in the context of more deleterious mutations, emphasizing that pairwise epistasis is a local property of the fitness landscape. Finally, we determine the geometry of the fitness landscape, which reflects many of these biologically interesting features. CONCLUSION: A full description of complex fitness landscapes requires more information than the average curvature or the distribution of independent pairwise interactions. We have proposed a mathematical approach that, in principle, allows a complete description and, in practice, can suggest new insights into the structure of real fitness landscapes. Our analysis emphasizes the value of non-independent genotypes for these inferences.

Parametric alignment of Drosophila genomes.

The classic algorithms of Needleman-Wunsch and Smith-Waterman find a maximum a posteriori probability alignment for a pair hidden Markov model (PHMM). To process large genomes that have undergone complex genome rearrangements, almost all existing whole genome alignment methods apply fast heuristics to divide genomes into small pieces that are suitable for Needleman-Wunsch alignment. In these alignment methods, it is standard practice to fix the parameters and to produce a single alignment for subsequent analysis by biologists. As the number of alignment programs applied on a whole genome scale continues to increase, so does the disagreement in their results. The alignments produced by different programs vary greatly, especially in non-coding regions of eukaryotic genomes where the biologically correct alignment is hard to find. Parametric alignment is one possible remedy. This methodology resolves the issue of robustness to changes in parameters by finding all optimal alignments for all possible parameters in a PHMM. Our main result is the construction of a whole genome parametric alignment of Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila pseudoobscura. This alignment draws on existing heuristics for dividing whole genomes into small pieces for alignment, and it relies on advances we have made in computing convex polytopes that allow us to parametrically align non-coding regions using biologically realistic models. We demonstrate the utility of our parametric alignment for biological inference by showing that cis-regulatory elements are more conserved between Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila pseudoobscura than previously thought. We also show how whole genome parametric alignment can be used to quantitatively assess the dependence of branch length estimates on alignment parameters.

Toric ideals of phylogenetic invariants.

Statistical models of evolution are algebraic varieties in the space of joint probability distributions on the leaf colorations of a phylogenetic tree. The phylogenetic invariants of a model are the polynomials which vanish on the variety. Several widely used models for biological sequences have transition matrices that can be diagonalized by means of the Fourier transform of an Abelian group. Their phylogenetic invariants form a toric ideal in the Fourier coordinates. We determine generators and Gröbner bases for these toric ideals. For the Jukes-Cantor and Kimura models on a binary tree, our Gröbner bases consist of certain explicitly constructed polynomials of degree at most four.

Toric ideals of phylogenetic invariants.

Statistical models of evolution are algebraic varieties in the space of joint probability distributions on the leaf colorations of a phylogenetic tree. The phylogenetic invariants of a model are the polynomials which vanish on the variety. Several widely used models for biological sequences have transition matrices that can be diagonalized by means of the Fourier transform of an abelian group. Their phylogenetic invariants form a toric ideal in the Fourier coordinates. We determine generators and Gröbner bases for these toric ideals. For the Jukes-Cantor and Kimura models on a binary tree, our Gröbner bases consist of certain explicitly constructed polynomials of degree at most four.

Rational design of antibiotic treatment plans: a treatment strategy for managing evolution and reversing resistance.

The development of reliable methods for restoring susceptibility after antibiotic resistance arises has proven elusive. A greater understanding of the relationship between antibiotic administration and the evolution of resistance is key to overcoming this challenge. Here we present a data-driven mathematical approach for developing antibiotic treatment plans that can reverse the evolution of antibiotic resistance determinants. We have generated adaptive landscapes for 16 genotypes of the TEM ß-lactamase that vary from the wild type genotype "TEM-1" through all combinations of four amino acid substitutions. We determined the growth rate of each genotype when treated with each of 15 ß-lactam antibiotics. By using growth rates as a measure of fitness, we computed the probability of each amino acid substitution in each ß-lactam treatment using two different models named the Correlated Probability Model (CPM) and the Equal Probability Model (EPM). We then performed an exhaustive search through the 15 treatments for substitution paths leading from each of the 16 genotypes back to the wild type TEM-1. We identified optimized treatment paths that returned the highest probabilities of selecting for reversions of amino acid substitutions and returning TEM to the wild type state. For the CPM model, the optimized probabilities ranged between 0.6 and 1.0. For the EPM model, the optimized probabilities ranged between 0.38 and 1.0. For cyclical CPM treatment plans in which the starting and ending genotype was the wild type, the probabilities were between 0.62 and 0.7. Overall this study shows that there is promise for reversing the evolution of resistance through antibiotic treatment plans.

Comparison of pattern detection methods in microarray time series of the segmentation clock.

While genome-wide gene expression data are generated at an increasing rate, the repertoire of approaches for pattern discovery in these data is still limited. Identifying subtle patterns of interest in large amounts of data (tens of thousands of profiles) associated with a certain level of noise remains a challenge. A microarray time series was recently generated to study the transcriptional program of the mouse segmentation clock, a biological oscillator associated with the periodic formation of the segments of the body axis. A method related to Fourier analysis, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, was used to detect periodic profiles in the dataset, leading to the identification of a novel set of cyclic genes associated with the segmentation clock. Here, we applied to the same microarray time series dataset four distinct mathematical methods to identify significant patterns in gene expression profiles. These methods are called: Phase consistency, Address reduction, Cyclohedron test and Stable persistence, and are based on different conceptual frameworks that are either hypothesis- or data-driven. Some of the methods, unlike Fourier transforms, are not dependent on the assumption of periodicity of the pattern of interest. Remarkably, these methods identified blindly the expression profiles of known cyclic genes as the most significant patterns in the dataset. Many candidate genes predicted by more than one approach appeared to be true positive cyclic genes and will be of particular interest for future research. In addition, these methods predicted novel candidate cyclic genes that were consistent with previous biological knowledge and experimental validation in mouse embryos. Our results demonstrate the utility of these novel pattern detection strategies, notably for detection of periodic profiles, and suggest that combining several distinct mathematical approaches to analyze microarray datasets is a valuable strategy for identifying genes that exhibit novel, interesting transcriptional patterns.

Toward the human genotope.

The human genotope is the convex hull of all allele frequency vectors that can be obtained from the genotypes present in the human population. In this paper, we take a few initial steps toward a description of this object, which may be fundamental for future population based genetics studies. Here we use data from the HapMap Project, restricted to two ENCODE regions, to study a subpolytope of the human genotope. We study three different approaches for obtaining informative low-dimensional projections of this subpolytope. The projections are specified by projection onto few tag SNPs, principal component analysis, and archetypal analysis. We describe the application of our geometric approach to identifying structure in populations based on single nucleotide polymorphisms.

Evolution on distributive lattices.

We consider the directed evolution of a population after an intervention that has significantly altered the underlying fitness landscape. We model the space of genotypes as a distributive lattice; the fitness landscape is a real-valued function on that lattice. The risk of escape from intervention, i.e., the probability that the population develops an escape mutant before extinction, is encoded in the risk polynomial. Tools from algebraic combinatorics are applied to compute the risk polynomial in terms of the fitness landscape. In an application to the development of drug resistance in HIV, we study the risk of viral escape from treatment with the protease inhibitors ritonavir and indinavir.

Parametric inference for biological sequence analysis.

One of the major successes in computational biology has been the unification, by using the graphical model formalism, of a multitude of algorithms for annotating and comparing biological sequences. Graphical models that have been applied to these problems include hidden Markov models for annotation, tree models for phylogenetics, and pair hidden Markov models for alignment. A single algorithm, the sum-product algorithm, solves many of the inference problems that are associated with different statistical models. This article introduces the polytope propagation algorithm for computing the Newton polytope of an observation from a graphical model. This algorithm is a geometric version of the sum-product algorithm and is used to analyze the parametric behavior of maximum a posteriori inference calculations for graphical models.

Tropical geometry of statistical models.

This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.