Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model.

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

The interaction of drought and habitat explain space-time patterns of establishment in saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea).

The long-lived columnar saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea) is among the most studied plants in the world. Long-term studies have shown saguaro establishment to be generally episodic and strongly influenced by precipitation and temperature. Water limitation through lower-than-average seasonal rainfall and elevated temperatures increasing evaporative loss can reduce survivorship of recent germinates. Thus, multi-year, extended drought could cause populations to decline as older saguaros die without replacement. Previous studies have related establishment to temporal variation in rainfall, but most studies have been on non-randomized plots in ideal habitat and thus might not have captured the full variability within the local area. We studied how saguaro establishment varied in space and which habitat features may buffer responses to drought on 36 4-ha plots located randomly across an elevation gradient, including substantial replication in landscape position (bajada, foothills, and slopes) in the two disjunct districts of Saguaro National Park in southern Arizona, USA. Recent, severe drought coincided with drastic declines in saguaro establishment across this ~25,000-ha area. Establishment patterns derived from the park-wide data set was strongly correlated with drought, but the Park's two districts and diversity of plots demonstrated substantially different population outcomes. Saguaro establishment was best explained by the interaction of drought and habitat type; establishment in bajada and foothill plots dropped to near-zero under the most severe periods of water limitation but remained higher in slope plots during the same time span. Combined with saguaro density estimates, these data suggest that the most suitable habitat type for saguaro establishment shifted to higher elevations during the time span of the recent drought. These results place into context the extent to which historical patterns of demography provide insight into future population dynamics in a changing climate and reveal the importance of understanding dynamics across the distribution of possible local habitat types with response to variation in weather.

Distribution and Occurrence of Amblyomma maculatum sensu lato (Acari: Ixodidae) and Rickettsia parkeri (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae), Arizona and New Mexico, 2017-2019.

Amblyomma maculatum Koch sensu lato (s.l.) ticks are the vector of Rickettsia parkeri in Arizona, where nine cases of R. parkeri rickettsiosis have been identified since the initial case in 2014. The current study sought to better define the geographic ranges of the vector and pathogen and to assess the potential public health risk posed by R. parkeri in this region of the southwestern United States. A total of 275 A. maculatum s.l. ticks were collected from 34 locations in four counties in Arizona and one county in New Mexico and screened for DNA of Rickettsia species. Rickettsia parkeri was detected in 20.4% of the ticks, including one specimen collected from New Mexico, the first report of R. parkeri in A. maculatum s.l. from this state. This work demonstrates a broader distribution of A. maculatum s.l. ticks and R. parkeri in the southwestern United States than appreciated previously to suggest that R. parkeri rickettsiosis is underrecognized in this region.

Hydrologic variability governs population dynamics of a vulnerable amphibian in an arid environment.

Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis). Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01). Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01). Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems.