RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Proximal femoral fractures in older adults affect prognosis, quality of life and medical expenses. Therefore, identifying patients with an elevated risk for proximal femoral fractures and implementing preventive measures to mitigate their occurrence are crucial. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop an accurate in-hospital fracture prediction model that considers patients' daily conditions and medical procedure status. Additionally, it investigated the changes in their conditions associated with fractures during hospital stays. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study. SETTINGS: Acute care hospitals in Japan. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 8 514 551 patients from 1321 medical facilities who had been discharged between April 2018 and March 2021 with hip and proximal femoral fractures. METHODS: Logistic regression analysis determined the association between patients' changes in their ability to transfer at admission and the day before fracture, and proximal femoral fracture during hospital stays. RESULTS: Patients were classified into fracture and non-fracture groups. The mean ages were 77.4 (SD: 7.7) and 82.6 (SD: 7.8), and the percentages of women were 42.7% and 65.3% in the non-fracture and fracture groups (p<0.01), respectively. Model 4 showed that even if a patient required partial assistance with transfer on the day before the fracture, the fracture risk increased in each category of change in ability to transfer in the following order: 'declined', 'improved' and 'no change'. CONCLUSIONS: Patients showing improved ability to transfer during their hospitalisation are at a higher risk for fractures. Monitoring patients' daily conditions and tracking changes can help prevent fractures during their hospital stays.