Comparison of lifetime mortality risk, incidence risk, and DALYs of baseline cancer rates among countries as a benchmark for radiation-related cancer risk.

Statistical benchmark data are necessary when considering the basis for radiation protection criteria based on calculated risks. We herein focused on baseline mortality and incidence cancer rates as benchmark data collected from 33 countries. Furthermore, we calculated the lifetime mortality and incidence risks and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for all solid cancers, colon cancer, lung cancer, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, and leukemia using the baseline cancer rates and compared them among the countries. The results showed that the lifetime mortality and incidence risks and DALYs for all solid cancers differed among the countries by a factor of 2-4 for males and 2-3 for females; these were low in less-developed countries. Our study proposed that health risk based on baseline cancer rates should be the benchmark for comparing radiation cancer risks.

Temporal changes in cumulative mortality risks of cancer, by occupation, in the working population of Japan from 1995 to 2020: a benchmark for radiation risk comparison.

The purpose of this study was to provide benchmark data for discussing the tolerability of cancer risk associated with occupational radiation exposure. It focused on differences in cancer mortality risk by occupation among Japan's working population and examined baseline cancer mortality risks and its variations from 1995 through 2020. Data were collected every five years from national vital statistics sources. By focusing on the same types of cancer among radiation induced effects, cumulative mortality risks were calculated for colorectal, lung, and breast cancer (females only) for those aged 15-74. The average cumulative mortality risk for the working population in Japan has decreased by 30%-60% over the past 25 years. Service workers and male managers were at an average risk, among all workers, while clerical workers and transportation and manufacturing workers had about half the average risk. The risks were higher for professionals and female managers, about 1.5-2 times the average for professionals and up to 5 times the average for female managers. The decrease in the average cancer mortality risk in the working population as a baseline suggests that risk tolerance in society might have changed over time. Since differences in mortality by occupation were confirmed, the usefulness of occupational data as a benchmark needs further investigation, as high-risk/low-risk occupations vary by country and region. The results of this study contribute to put radiation risks into perspective with the background risk of cancer.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for the reduction factor of sheltering for radiation exposures.

Sheltering is one of the countermeasures used to mitigate radiation exposure during nuclear power plant accidents. The effectiveness of sheltering for inhalation exposure is often expressed by the reduction factor, which is defined as the ratio of the indoor to the outdoor cumulative radioactivity concentrations or doses. The indoor concentration is mainly controlled by the air exchange rate, penetration factor, and indoor deposition rate. Meanwhile, the air exchange rate depends on surrounding environmental conditions: the wind speed, leakage area normalised by the floor area of the house, and gross building coverage ratio. In this study, the ranges of the uncertainty of the reduction factors for particles and iodine in reactive gas form were investigated under various environmental conditions, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to understand the parameter with the most influence on the uncertainty of the reduction factor. From the results of the uncertainty analyses, the calculated reduction factor was highly variable depending on the environmental condition and the airtightness of the houses. The median and 95th percentile of the reduction factors for the older houses were 0.5 and 0.9 for particles and 0.07 and 0.4 for iodine in reactive gas form, respectively and these ranges were smaller for newer houses. From the results of the sensitivity analyses, the wind speed was the most influential parameter determining the reduction factor. Additionally, the wind speed was less influential for the reduction factor in newer houses.

Assessment of doses in contaminated urban areas: modelling exercise based on Fukushima data.

State-of-the-art dose assessment models were applied to estimate doses to the population in urban areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Assessment results were compared among five models, and comparisons of model predictions with actual measurements were also made. Assessments were performed using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Predicted dose distributions for indoor and outdoor workers from a probabilistic approach were in good agreement with the actual measurements. In addition, when the models were applied to assess the doses to the representative person, based on a concept recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and in the International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, it was evident that doses to the representative person obtained with a deterministic approach were always higher than those obtained with a probabilistic approach using the same model.

Urban working groups in the IAEA's model testing programmes: overview from the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes.

The IAEA's model testing programmes have included a series of Working Groups concerned with modelling radioactive contamination in urban environments. These have included the Urban Working Group of Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (1988-1994), the Urban Remediation Working Group of Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS) (2003-2007), the Urban Areas Working Group of EMRAS II (2009-2011), the Urban Environments Working Group of (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) MODARIA I (2013-2015), and most recently, the Urban Exposures Working Group of MODARIA II (2016-2019). The overarching objective of these Working Groups has been to test and improve the capabilities of computer models used to assess radioactive contamination in urban environments, including dispersion and deposition processes, short-term and long-term redistribution of contaminants following deposition events, and the effectiveness of various countermeasures and other protective actions, including remedial actions, in reducing contamination levels, human exposures, and doses to humans. This paper describes the exercises conducted during the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes. These exercises have included short-range and mid-range atmospheric dispersion exercises based on data from field tests or tracer studies, hypothetical urban dispersion exercises, and an exercise based on data collected after the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Improvement of model capabilities will lead to improvements in assessing various contamination scenarios (real or hypothetical), and in turn, to improved decision-making and communication with the public following a nuclear or radiological emergency.

Penetration factor and indoor deposition rate of elementary and particulate iodine in a Japanese house for assessing the effectiveness of sheltering for radiation exposures.

Sheltering is one of the countermeasures for protection against radiation exposures in nuclear accidents. The effectiveness of sheltering is often expressed by the reduction factor, that is the ratio of the indoor to the outdoor cumulative radioactivity concentrations or doses. The indoor concentration is mainly controlled by the air exchange rate, penetration factor, and indoor deposition rate. The penetration factor and indoor deposition rate depend on the surface and the materials and structure of windows and doors as it is these openings in the building envelope that control penetration. We investigated experimentally these parameters of I2and particles. The experiment was performed in two apartment houses, three single-family houses, and chambers. The obtained penetration factor ranged from 0.3 to 1 for particles of 0.3-1µm and 0.15-0.7 for I2depending on the air exchange rate. The indoor deposition rate for a house room ranged from 0.007 to 0.2 h-1for particles of 0.3-1µm and 0.2-1.5 h-1for I2.

A Probabilistic Approach to Assess External Doses to the Public Considering Spatial Variability of Radioactive Contamination and Interpopulation Differences in Behavior Pattern.

Dose assessment is an important issue from the viewpoints of protecting people from radiation exposure and managing postaccident situations adequately. However, the radiation doses received by people cannot be determined with complete accuracy because of the uncertainties and the variability associated with any process of defining individual characteristics and in the dose assessment process itself. In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i.e., ambient dose rates and behavior patterns) in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens' Club, Contractors' Association, and Agricultural Cooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differences resulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results for participants from the Fukushima City Office agreed with the measured values, thereby validating the model and the approach. Although the assessment results obtained for the Senior Citizens' Club and the Agricultural Cooperative differ partly from the measured values, by addressing further considerations in terms of dose reduction effects due to decontamination and the impact of additional exposure sources in agricultural fields, these results can be improved. By contrast, the measurements obtained for the participants from the Contractors' Association were not reproduced well in the present study. To assess the doses to this group, further investigations of association members' work activities and the related dose reduction effects are needed.

Bioaccessibility of Fukushima-Accident-Derived Cs in Soils and the Contribution of Soil Ingestion to Radiation Doses in Children.

Ingestion of contaminated soil is one potential internal exposure pathway in areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Doses from this pathway can be overestimated if the availability of radioactive nuclides in soils for the gastrointestinal tract is not considered. The concept of bioaccessibility has been adopted to evaluate this availability based on in vitro tests. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of radioactive cesium from soils via the physiologically-based extraction test (PBET) and the extractability of those via an extraction test with 1 mol/L of hydrochloric acid (HCl). The bioaccessibility obtained in the PBET was 5.3% ± 1%, and the extractability in the tests with HCl was 16% ± 3%. The bioaccessibility was strongly correlated with the extractability. This result indicates the possibility that the extractability in HCl can be used as a good predictor of the bioaccessibility with PBET. In addition, we assessed the doses to children from the ingestion of soil via hand-to-mouth activity based on our PBET results using a probabilistic approach considering the spatial distribution of radioactive cesium in Date City in Fukushima Prefecture and the interindividual differences in the surveyed amounts of soil ingestion in Japan. The results of this assessment indicate that even if children were to routinely ingest a large amount of soil with relatively high contamination, the radiation doses from this pathway are negligible compared with doses from external exposure owing to deposited radionuclides in Fukushima Prefecture.

Soil dust and bioaerosols as potential sources for resuspended 137Cs occurring near the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant.

One of the current pathways to radiation exposure, caused by the radionuclides discharged during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, is the inhalation of resuspended 137Cs present in the air. Although wind-induced soil particle resuspension is recognized as a primary resuspension mechanism, studies regarding the aftermath of the FDNPP accident have suggested that bioaerosols can also be a potential source of atmospheric 137Cs in rural areas, although the quantitative impact on the atmospheric 137Cs concentration is still largely unknown. We propose a model for simulating the 137Cs resuspension as soil particles and bioaerosols in the form of fungal spores, which are regarded as a potential candidate for the source of 137Cs-bearing bioaerosol emission into the air. We apply the model to the difficult-to-return zone (DRZ) near the FDNPP to characterize the relative importance of the two resuspension mechanisms. Our model calculations show that soil particle resuspension is responsible for the surface-air 137Cs observed during winter-spring but could not account for the higher 137Cs concentrations observed in summer-autumn. Higher 137Cs concentrations are reproduced by the emission of 137Cs-bearing bioaerosols (fungal spores) that replenishes the low-level soil particle resuspension in summer-autumn. Our model results show that the accumulation of 137Cs in fungal spores and large emissions of spores characteristic of the rural environment are likely responsible for the presence of biogenic 137Cs in the air, although the former must be experimentally validated. These findings provide vital information for the assessment of the atmospheric 137Cs concentration in the DRZ, as applying the resuspension factor (m-1) from urban areas, where soil particle resuspension would dominate, can lead to a biased estimate of the surface-air 137Cs concentration. Moreover, the influence of bioaerosol 137Cs on the atmospheric 137Cs concentration would last longer, because undecontaminated forests commonly exist within the DRZ.

Backward Estimation of Atmospheric Release of 137Cs and 131I Using Total Cumulative Deposition in Terrestrial Areas Following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

ABSTRACT: The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident caused a significant release of radionuclides into the environment. It is important to explore the timing and amount of radioactive release to terrestrial areas in order to clarify the consequences of the accident, including the dose received by the population living in the areas affected by the accident. In general, backward estimations are performed using air concentrations of radionuclides, but they are difficult to measure when radioactive plumes are passing through, and only spatially and temporally limited measurements are available. Therefore, a new method of backward estimation was developed based on the total cumulative deposition density, which can provide sufficient data in the environment by combining the atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition model calculations. Consequently, our estimations show that a major release of 137Cs and 131I occurred on 15, 20, 21, 22, 25, and 30 March 2011, after the accident. The amounts of release estimated by our new method for 137Cs and 131I were 4.9 × 1015 Bq and 120 × 1015 Bq, respectively. These results have no significant contradiction with the estimated results by the previous studies that were based on air concentrations and air dose rates that were measured in terrestrial areas. It was found that our new method is applicable for backward estimation oriented to the dose assessment for the people living in terrestrial areas.

Indoor and outdoor radionuclide distribution in houses after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

An enormous amount of radionuclides was released into the atmosphere following the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, with part of it penetrating houses. Information on radionuclide distribution inside and outside houses is useful for indoor external dose assessments. To investigate the radionuclide distribution, we collected both soil samples around the target houses and house material samples (i.e., floor, inner wall, ceiling, outer wall, and roof) in Fukushima Prefecture in 2019. The activity of the samples was measured using a high-purity germanium detector. The surface contamination densities of the floor, inner wall, ceiling, outer wall, and roof relative to the ground were 3 × 10-3-7 × 10-2, 6 × 10-5-4 × 10-4, 7 × 10-5-3 × 10-4, 2 × 10-3-1 × 10-2, and 4 × 10-3-2 × 10-1, respectively. The relative surface contamination densities varied depending on the surface material, its location, and surface orientation, indicating that these uncertainty factors should be considered in the dose assessment for residents.

Assessment Model of Radiation Doses from External Exposure to the Public after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

Radiation exposure is one of most important factors to manage following a nuclear emergency. Actual measurement is the best way to obtain information concerning the dose received by the people in terms of accuracy and reliability. However, in practice, it is difficult to collect measurements from all people affected by nuclear accidents over the whole period of exposure from past to future. Therefore, probabilistic assessment using a model is needed. An assessment model of radiation doses from external exposures was developed based on the actual measurement of individual doses and ambient dose equivalent rates inside and outside houses in Fukushima City. A survey of behavioral patterns was also performed for the same purpose. In addition to our measurement and survey, we took into account the latest insights from the experiences of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Comparisons between the assessed and measured results revealed that the time-dependence of doses and the distribution of doses obtained using the developed models agree well with the results of actual measurements. Thus, our probabilistic approach was validated. Based on both our assessment and on our actual measurements, no participants were observed to receive doses in excess of 1 mSv y as of 8 y after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in Fukushima City.

Development of an External Radiation Dose Estimation Model for Children Returning to Their Homes in Areas Affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

On 1 April 2017, around 6 y after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, evacuation orders for large affected areas were lifted, and areas to which people could return were expanded. In the current study, a dose estimation model based on a probabilistic approach has been developed to estimate the external radiation doses children would receive after returning to these areas. The target groups are children from infants to high school students, and the target areas are nine municipalities including evacuation areas as of 5 September 2015. The estimation period is for 4 y starting 1 April 2017. Validation of the model in an area for which individual personal dosimetry measurements were available showed that it is valid for infants, kindergarteners, 3rd and 4th grade elementary school students, 5th and 6th grade elementary school students, and junior high school students. Considering the statement of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, the estimated radiation doses for these five age groups were taken to be the 95th percentiles of the predicted distributions as an index of conservative judgement. As a result of our estimations, the 95th percentile doses to all age groups were less than 20 mSv y in all periods and in all areas. The 95th percentile doses in some areas were less than 1 mSv y, which is the long-term dosimetric target set by the Japanese government. It should be noted that our results are preliminary, being based on several assumptions and limitations regarding environmental contamination conditions and the behavioral patterns of children. To estimate the children's doses precisely, further considerations for these assumptions and limitations will be needed.

Estimation of radiocesium dietary intake from time series data of radiocesium concentrations in sewer sludge.

After the Fukushima accident, it became important to determine the quantity of radionuclide ingested by inhabitants. The most common methods currently used to obtain such data are the "market basket" (MB) and "duplicate" (DP) methods. However, it is difficult to conduct monitorings using these methods with sufficient frequency as they are high cost and time-consuming. The present study proposes a new method to estimate the ingestion of radionuclides, based on the time-dependent concentrations of radiocesium in sewer sludge, which addresses the uncertainties of the two common methods. The newly proposed method, which we designate as SL, consists of three steps: (1) the separation of wet weather and dry weather data, (2) determining the mass balance of the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), and (3) developing a reverse biokinetic model to relate the amount of radionuclides ingested to the amounts contained in the sewer sludge. We tested the new method using the time-dependent radiocesium concentrations in sewer sludge from the WWTP in Fukushima City. The results from the SL method agreed to those from the MB while overestimated those from DP method. The trend lines for all three methods, however, are in good agreement. Sensitivity analyses of SL method indicate further studies on uncertainties of sensitive parameters are deemed necessary to improve the accuracy of the method.

Dose-reduction Effects of Vehicles against Gamma Radiation in the Case of a Nuclear Accident.

Self-evacuation by a private vehicle is one of the most commonly used methods of public evacuation in the case of a nuclear accident. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the dose-reduction effects of vehicles. To achieve this aim, a model for calculating the dose reduction factor was developed based on the actual shape and weight of Japanese vehicles. This factor is defined as the ratio of dose rate inside a vehicle to that outside. The model was developed based on weight of vehicle to take into account the dose-reduction effects due to not only the steel plate of the vehicle body but also the other assemblies. In addition to model calculation, the dose reduction factors were evaluated by actual measurements in the areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. A comparison between the simulated and the measured results revealed that the dose reduction factors obtained using the developed models were in good agreement with the results of actual measurements. Using this model, we also evaluated the dose reduction factors for cloudshine and groundshine in the case of a nuclear accident. The evaluations were performed for four vehicle models whose weights were 800-1,930 kg. The dose reduction factor for cloudshine with photon energy of 0.4-1.5 MeV was 0.66-0.88, and that for groundshine from Cs was 0.64-0.73. Although these results were obtained under the assumption that Cs is placed only on the ground surface, according to these considerations, if Cs migrated into the ground corresponding to the relaxation mass depth of 10 g cm, the dose reduction factors would be almost 8% less than those for the ground surface.

cis-1 Isomers of tethered bismethano[70]fullerene as electron acceptors in organic photovoltaics.

Isomer-controlled [70]fullerene bis-adducts can achieve high performance as electron-acceptors in organic photovoltaics (OPVs) because of their stronger absorption intensities than [60]fullerene derivatives, higher LUMO energy levels than mono-adducts, and less structural and energetic disorder than random isomer mixtures. Especially, attractive are cis-1 isomers that have the closest proximity of addends owing to their plausible more regular close packed structure. In this study, propylene-tethered cis-1 bismethano[70]fullerene with two methyl, ethyl, phenyl, or thienyl groups were rationally designed and prepared for the first time to investigate the OPV performances with an amorphous conjugated polymer donor (PCDTBT). The cis-1 products were found to be a mixture of two regioisomers, α-1-α and α-1-ß as major and minor components, respectively. Among them, the cis-1 product with two ethyl groups (Et2-cis-1-[70]PBC) showed the highest OPV performance, encouraging us to isolate its α-1-α isomer (Et2-α-1-α-[70]PBC) by high-performance liquid chromatography. OPV devices based on Et2-cis-1-[70]PBC and Et2-α-1-α-[70]PBC with PCDTBT showed open-circuit voltages of 0.844 V and 0.864 V, respectively, which were higher than that of a device with typical [70]fullerene mono-adduct, [70]PCBM (0.831 V) with a lower LUMO level. However, the short-circuit current densities and resultant power conversion efficiencies of the devices with Et2-cis-1-[70]PBC (9.24 mA cm-2, 4.60%) and Et2-α-1-α-[70]PBC (6.35 mA cm-2, 3.25%) were lower than those of the device with [70]PCBM (10.8 mA cm-2, 5.8%) due to their inferior charge collection efficiencies. The results obtained here reveal that cis-1 [70]fullerene bis-adducts do not guarantee better OPV performance and that further optimization of the substituent structures is necessary.

Assessment of residual doses to population after decontamination in Fukushima Prefecture.

Large quantities of radioactive materials were released into the environment as a result of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident. Many inhabitants residing in the affected areas are now exposed to radiation in their daily lives. In an attempt to manage this radiation dose, an additional radiation dose of 1 mSv/y was adopted as a long-term dosimetric target. An activity level reading of 0.23 µSv/h was then determined as a guidance value to achieve the target by implementing decontamination measures. The objectives of this study are to assess the effects of decontamination based on this guidance value and to predict any possible future problems with the decontamination strategy. Using a probabilistic approach, we assessed the annual effective dose of indoor workers, outdoor workers, and pensioners in the Fukushima Prefecture. Our probabilistic model considers the variabilities in behavioral patterns and Cs-137 surface-activity levels. Five years after the initial contamination, the 95th percentiles of indoor workers and pensioners in 53 of the 59 municipalities were found to receive annual effective doses of below 1 mSv/y (0.026-0.73 mSv/y). However, for outdoor workers in 25 municipalities, the annual doses were over 1 mSv/y (1.0-35 mSv/y). Therefore, the guidance value is effective for indoor workers and pensioners; to determine whether additional countermeasures for outdoor workers should be implemented, a detailed assessment that uses more realistic assumptions is required.

Statistical characterization of radiation doses from external exposures and relevant contributors in Fukushima prefecture.

In areas contaminated by radioactive materials, well designed dose assessment is necessary in order to protect people from radiation exposure and manage the exposure situation appropriately. Probabilistic dose assessment is a useful method for providing a more complete characterization of information on dose distributions in the population and requires statistically characterized data on pathway-relevant contributors. The objective of this paper is to determine statistical features of contributors to external exposures, as well as to identify causes of variabilities of individual doses to the populations living in areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. To achieve these objectives, measurements of individual doses and ambient dose rates, as well as surveys of behavioral patterns, were performed between February and April 2012. These were made with the cooperation of indoor workers, outdoor workers, and pensioners living in Fukushima prefecture. On the basis of these results, statistical analyses were performed in order to identify variabilities of contributors. In addition, a multi-regression analysis was done to explore a significant relationship between individual doses and relevant contributors. Results showed that the ambient dose equivalent rate also distributed with lognormal form, and it had variabilities attributable to the spatial distribution of deposited radionuclides. The distribution form of time spent outdoors depends on the characteristics of occupation, and the distributions for indoor workers and outdoor workers were lognormal and normal, respectively. Results of a multiple-regression analysis suggested that such variabilities of contributors give rise to significant differences in individual doses among the populations.