Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Effect of a Male-Targeted Digital Decision Support Application Aimed at Increasing Linkage to HIV Care Among Men: Findings from the HITS Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial in Rural South Africa.

Linkage to HIV care remains suboptimal among men. We investigated the effectiveness of a male-targeted HIV-specific decision support app, Empowering People through Informed Choices for HIV (EPIC-HIV), on increasing linkage to HIV care among men in rural South Africa. Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start (HITS) was a multi-component cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted among 45 communities in uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal. The development of EPIC-HIV was guided by self-determination theory and human-computer interaction design to increase intrinsic motivation to seek HIV testing and care among men. EPIC-HIV was offered in two stages: EPIC-HIV 1 at the time of home-based HIV counseling and testing (HBHCT), and EPIC-HIV 2 at 1 month after a positive HIV diagnosis if not linked to care. Sixteen communities were randomly assigned to the arms to receive EPIC-HIV, and 29 communities to the arms without EPIC-HIV. Among all eligible men, we compared linkage to care (initiation or resumption of antiretroviral therapy after > 3 months of care interruption) at local clinics within 1 year of a home visit, ascertained from individual clinical records. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for receiving another intervention (i.e., financial incentives) and clustering at the community level. We also conducted a satisfaction survey for EPIC-HIV 2. A total of 13,894 men were eligible (i.e., aged ≥ 15 years and resident in the 45 communities). The mean age was 34.6 (±16.8) years, and 65% were married or in an informal union. Overall, 20.7% received HBHCT, resulting in 122 HIV-positive and 6 discordant tests. Among these, 54 men linked to care within 1 year after HBHCT. Additionally, of the 13,765 eligible participants who did not receive HBHCT or received HIV-negative results, 301 men linked to care within 1 year. Overall, only 13 men received EPIC-HIV 2. The proportion of linkage to care did not differ between the arms randomized to EPIC-HIV and those without EPIC-HIV (adjusted risk ratio = 1.05; 95% CI:0.86-1.29). All 13 men who used EPIC-HIV 2 reported the app was acceptable, user-friendly, and useful for getting information on HIV testing and treatment. The reach was low, although the acceptability and usability of the app were very high among those who engaged with it. Enhanced digital support applications could form part of interventions to increase knowledge of HIV treatment among men. Clinical Trial Number: ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03757104.

Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Recent declines in adult HIV-1 incidence have followed the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy and primary HIV prevention across high-burden communities of sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modeling suggests that HIV risk will decline disproportionately in younger adult age-groups as interventions scale, concentrating new HIV infections in those >age 25 over time. Yet, no empirical data exist to support these projections. We conducted a population-based cohort study over a 16-y period (2004 to 2019), spanning the early scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision, to estimate changes in the age distribution of HIV incidence in a hyperepidemic region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV incidence has recently declined. Median age of HIV seroconversion increased by 5.5 y in men and 3.0 y in women, and the age of peak HIV incidence increased by 5.0 y in men and 2.0 y in women. Incidence declined disproportionately among young men (64% in men 15 to 19, 68% in men 20 to 24, and 46% in men 25 to 29) and young women (44% in women 15 to 19, 24% in women 20 to 24) comparing periods pre- versus post-universal test and treat. Incidence was stable (<20% change) in women aged 30 to 39 and men aged 30 to 34. Age shifts in incidence occurred after 2012 and were observed earlier in men than in women. These results provide direct epidemiological evidence of the changing demographics of HIV risk in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of large-scale treatment and prevention. More attention is needed to address lagging incidence decline among older individuals.

Associations of inter-annual rainfall decreases with subsequent HIV outcomes for persons with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Periods of droughts can lead to decreased food security, and altered behaviours, potentially affecting outcomes on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among persons with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether decreased rainfall is associated with adverse outcomes among PWH on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: Data were combined from 11 clinical cohorts of PWH in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. Adult PWH who had started ART prior to 01/06/2016 and were in follow-up in the year prior to 01/06/2016 were included. Two-year rainfall from June 2014 to May 2016 at the location of each HIV centre was summed and ranked against historical 2-year rainfall amounts (1981-2016) to give an empirical relative percentile rainfall estimate. The IeDEA-SA and rainfall data were combined using each HIV centre's latitude/longitude. In individual-level analyses, multivariable Cox or generalized estimating equation regression models (GEEs) assessed associations between decreased rainfall versus historical levels and four separate outcomes (mortality, CD4 counts < 200 cells/mm3, viral loads > 400 copies/mL, and > 12-month gaps in follow-up) in the two years following the rainfall period. GEEs were used to investigate the association between relative rainfall and monthly numbers of unique visitors per HIV centre. RESULTS: Among 270,708 PWH across 386 HIV centres (67% female, median age 39 [IQR: 32-46]), lower rainfall than usual was associated with higher mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 1.18 [95%CI: 1.07-1.32] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease) and unsuppressed viral loads (adjusted Odds Ratio: 1.05 [1.01-1.09]). Levels of rainfall were not strongly associated with CD4 counts < 200 cell/mm3 or > 12-month gaps in care. HIV centres in areas with less rainfall than usual had lower numbers of PWH visiting them (adjusted Rate Ratio: 0.80 [0.66-0.98] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased rainfall could negatively impact on HIV treatment behaviours and outcomes. Further research is needed to explore the reasons for these effects. Interventions to mitigate the health impact of severe weather events are required.

Feasibility and acceptability of using biometric fingerprinting to track migrations and support retention in HIV prevention research in fishing population in East Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Fishing populations constitute a suitable key population amongst which to conduct HIV prevention trials due to very high HIV prevalence and incidence, however, these are highly mobile populations. We determined the feasibility and acceptability of using fingerprinting and geographical positioning systems to describe mobility patterns and retention among fisherfolks on the shoreline of Lake Victoria in South-western Uganda. METHODS: Between August 2015 and January 2017, two serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted during which fingerprinting of all residents aged 18-30 years on the shoreline of Lake Victoria was done. A mapper moving ahead of the survey team, produced village maps and took coordinates of every household. These were accessed by the survey team that assigned household and individual unique identifiers (ID) and collected demographic data. Using the assigned IDs, individuals were enrolled and their fingerprints scanned. The fingerprinting was repeated 6 months later in order to determine the participant's current household. If it was different from that at baseline, a new household ID was assigned which was used to map migrations both within and between villages. RESULTS: At both rounds, over 99% accepted to be fingerprinted. No fingerprinting faults were recorded at baseline and the level was under 1% at round two. Over 80% of the participants were seen at round two and of these, 16.3%, had moved to a new location whilst the majority, 85%, stayed within the same village. Movements between villages were mainly observed for those resident in large villages. Those who did not consider a fishing village to be their permanent home were less likely to be migrants than permanent residents (adjusted odds ratio = 0.37, 95%CI:0.15-0.94). CONCLUSION: Use of fingerprinting in fishing populations is feasible and acceptable. It is possible to track this mobile population for clinical trials or health services using this technology since most movements could be traced within and between villages.

An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI).

BACKGROUND: Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention. METHODS: We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). RESULTS: The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic.

Water, sanitation and depression in rural communities: evidence from nationally representative study data in South Africa.

Clean water and sanitation provisions are essential for good hygiene and health, with rural South Africa facing a simultaneous access crisis of both, the direct health effect of restricted access to both on mental health remaining scarce and largely overlooked. This study investigated the association between access to clean water and sanitation on depression in rural South Africa utilizing the most recent data (year 2017) from the South African National Income Dynamics Study. Our study outcome was depression, based on the 10-item abridged version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (data available in SA-NIDS), the main exposures being access to clean water and adequate sanitation facilities (i.e. flushing toilets). Two types of analyses were conducted: first, adjusted logistic regression models were fitted to assess the relationship between lack of access to clean water and adequate sanitation to depression. Second, we conducted mediation analysis to investigate whether access to clean water mediated the relationship between lack of access to toilets and depression. A high proportion of rural participants lacked access to clean water (n = 6,188, 47.6%) and adequate toilets (n = 9,797, 81.6%). The regression analyses indicated that lack of access to both clean water (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.06-1.39) and adequate sanitation (OR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.10-1.69) were significantly associated with greater odds of depression. The mediation analysis indicated that access to clean water partially mediated the relationship between lack of access to adequate sanitation and depression, the total mediated effect being 18.2% (95% CI: 11.0%-51.0%). Most rural communities in South Africa lack access to basic services that are essential for human dignity and a decent quality of life, leading to opportunities for poor mental health, with its various consequences for socio-economic development and personal wellbeing, including avoidable depression.

Ethical considerations in using a smartphone-based GPS app to understand linkages between mobility patterns and health outcomes: The example of HIV risk among mobile youth in rural South Africa.

Smartphones with Global Positioning System (GPS) apps offer simple and accurate tools to collect data on human mobility. However, their associated ethical challenges remain to be assessed. We used the Emanuel framework to assess the ethical concerns of using smartphone GPS to record mobility patterns of young adults in rural South Africa for a larger study on mobility and HIV risk (Sesikhona). We conducted four focus groups (FGDs) with individuals eligible for the Sesikhona study. FGD data were coded using the Emanuel framework. Participants perceived use of smartphone GPS to study human mobility and HIV risk as valuable. They raised concerns about invasion of privacy and confidentiality. Also mentioned were risk/benefit ratio, informed consent and ongoing respect. Concerns expressed provided a useful evidence-base for the development of a guide to inform future participants about ethical issues arising in the use of GPS technology to track mobility and health-related issues.

Predicting the Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data.

BACKGROUND: Accurate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment can guide optimal HIV prevention. We evaluated the performance of risk prediction models incorporating geospatial measures. METHODS: We developed and validated HIV risk prediction models in a population-based cohort in South Africa. Individual-level covariates included demographic and sexual behavior measures, and geospatial covariates included community HIV prevalence and viral load estimates. We trained models on 2012-2015 data using LASSO Cox models and validated predictions in 2016-2019 data. We compared full models to simpler models restricted to only individual-level covariates or only age and geospatial covariates. We compared the spatial distribution of predicted risk to that of high incidence areas (≥ 3/100 person-years). RESULTS: Our analysis included 19 556 individuals contributing 44 871 person-years and 1308 seroconversions. Incidence among the highest predicted risk quintile using the full model was 6.6/100 person-years (women) and 2.8/100 person-years (men). Models using only age group and geospatial covariates had similar performance (women: AUROC = 0.65, men: AUROC = 0.71) to the full models (women: AUROC = 0.68, men: AUROC = 0.72). Geospatial models more accurately identified high incidence regions than individual-level models; 20% of the study area with the highest predicted risk accounted for 60% of the high incidence areas when using geospatial models but only 13% using models with only individual-level covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Geospatial models with no individual measures other than age group predicted HIV risk nearly as well as models that included detailed behavioral data. Geospatial models may help guide HIV prevention efforts to individuals and geographic areas at highest risk.

CD4+ T-Cell Count at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in the "Treat-All" Era in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: South Africa implemented universal test and treat (UTT) in September 2016 in an effort to encourage earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We therefore conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the impact of UTT on mean CD4 count at ART initiation among adults aged ≥16 years attending 17 public sector primary care clinics in rural South Africa, between July 2014 and March 2019. RESULTS: Among 20 599 individuals (69% women), CD4 counts were available for 74%. Mean CD4 at ART initiation increased from 317.1 cells/µL (95% confidence interval [CI], 308.6 to 325.6) 1 to 8 months prior to UTT to 421.0 cells/µL (95% CI, 413.0 to 429.0) 1 to 12 months after UTT, including an immediate increase of 124.2 cells/µL (95% CI, 102.2 to 146.1). However, mean CD4 count subsequently fell to 389.5 cells/µL (95% CI, 381.8 to 397.1) 13 to 30 months after UTT but remained above pre-UTT levels. Men initiated ART at lower CD4 counts than women (-118.2 cells/µL, 95% CI, -125.5 to -111.0) throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: Although UTT led to an immediate increase in CD4 count at ART initiation in this rural community, the long-term effects were modest. More efforts are needed to increase initiation of ART early in those living with human immunodeficiency virus, particularly men.

PrEP uptake and delivery setting preferences among clients visiting six healthcare facilities in Eswatini.

Due to the high HIV incidence among the general population of Eswatini, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-exposed individuals is recommended. However, little is known about PrEP uptake and preferences in PrEP delivery healthcare setting among the general population. We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized trial that aimed to increase PrEP uptake. All clients eligible for PrEP in one of six public-sector healthcare facilities in Eswatini were included. PrEP uptake was stratified by initial reason for visit (e.g. outpatient). Preferences in PrEP delivery setting were collected among those clients who initiated PrEP. A total of 1782 clients had their HIV acquisition risk assessed. Of these, 72% (1277/1782) were considered at risk by healthcare providers and, among them, 40% (517/1277) initiated PrEP. Uptake was higher among clients visiting specifically to initiate PrEP (93%), followed by HIV testing visits (45.8%) and outpatient visits (40%). Among those who initiated PrEP, preferred delivery settings were outpatient services (31%), HIV testing services (26%), family planning (21%) and antenatal services (14%). Men or those at high risk of HIV acquisition were more likely to prefer HIV testing and outpatient services, while young women were more likely to visit and express a preference for antenatal and family planning services. Outpatient services and HIV testing services could be preferable choices for PrEP delivery integration, due to the high PrEP uptake and delivery setting preferences of the populations who use these services. Antenatal and family planning could also be considered with a view to targeting the youngest women.

RESUMEN: Debido a la alta incidencia del VIH entre la población general de Eswatini, se recomienda la profilaxis previa a la exposición (PrEP) para las personas expuestas al VIH. Sin embargo, se sabe poco sobre la aceptación de la PrEP y las preferencias en el ámbito de la atención sanitaria de la PrEP entre la población general. Se realizó un análisis secundario de un ensayo clínico que pretendía aumentar la aceptación de la PrEP. Se incluyó a todos los clientes elegibles para la PrEP en uno de los seis centros sanitarios del sector público de Eswatini. La aceptación de la PrEP se estratificó según el motivo inicial de la visita (por ejemplo, paciente externo). Se recogieron las preferencias en el entorno de administración de la PrEP entre aquellos clientes que iniciaron la PrEP. Se evaluó el riesgo de adquisición del VIH de un total de 1.782 clientes (de 2.238 contactados, el 80%). De ellos, el 72% (1277/1782) fueron considerados de riesgo por los profesionales sanitarios y, entre ellos, el 40% (517/1277) iniciaron la PrEP. El consumo fue mayor entre los clientes que acudieron específicamente para iniciar la PrEP (93%), seguido de las visitas para realizar la prueba del VIH (45,8%) y las visitas ambulatorias (40%). Entre los que iniciaron la PrEP, los entornos de prestación preferidos fueron los servicios ambulatorios (31%), los servicios de pruebas del VIH (26%), la planificación familiar (21%) y los servicios prenatales (14%). Los hombres o las personas con alto riesgo de contraer el VIH tenían más probabilidades de preferir las pruebas del VIH y los servicios ambulatorios, mientras que las mujeres jóvenes tenían más probabilidades de acudir a los servicios prenatales y de planificación familiar y expresar su preferencia por ellos. Los servicios ambulatorios y los servicios de pruebas del VIH podrían ser opciones preferibles para la integración de la entrega de la PrEP, debido a la alta aceptación de la PrEP y a las preferencias del entorno de entrega de las poblaciones que utilizan estos servicios. Los servicios prenatales y de planificación familiar también podrían considerarse con vistas a dirigirse a las mujeres más jóvenes.

Predictors of migration in an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African community: evidence from a population-based cohort (2005-2017).

Globally, South Africa hosts the highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the unique legacy of internal labour migration continues to be a major driver of the regional epidemic, interrupting treatment-as-prevention efforts. The study examined levels, trends, and predictors of migration in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using population-based surveillance data from 2005 through 2017. We followed 69 604 adult participants aged 15-49 years and recorded their migration events (i.e., out-migration from the surveillance area) in 423 038 person-years over 525 397 observations. Multiple failure Cox-regression models were used to measure the risk of migration by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, educational status, marital status, HIV, and community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Overall, 69% of the population cohort experienced at least one migration event during the follow-up period. The average incidence rate of migration was 9.96 events and 13.23 events per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively. Migration rates declined from 2005 to 2008 then peaked in 2012 for both women and men. Adjusting for other covariates, the risk of migration was 3.4-times higher among young women aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 3:19-3.57), and 2.9-times higher among young men aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (aHR = 2.86, 95% CI:2.69-3.04). There was a 9% and 27% decrease in risk of migration among both women (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83 - 0.99) and men (aHR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.66 - 0.82) respectively per every 1% increase in community ART coverage. Young unmarried women including those living with HIV, migrated at a magnitude similar to that of their male counterparts, and lowered as ART coverage increased over time, reflecting the role of improved HIV services across space in reducing out-migration. A deeper understanding of the characteristics of a migrating population provides critical information towards identifying and addressing gaps in the HIV prevention and care continuum in an era of high mobility.

Isisekelo Sempilo study protocol for the effectiveness of HIV prevention embedded in sexual health with or without peer navigator support (Thetha Nami) to reduce prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst adolescents and young adults in rural KwaZulu-Natal: a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) through universal test and treat (UTT) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) substantially reduces HIV-related mortality, morbidity and incidence. Effective individual-level prevention modalities have not translated into population-level impact in southern Africa due to sub-optimal coverage among adolescents and youth who are hard to engage. We aim to investigate the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary population level effectiveness of HIV prevention services with or without peer support to reduce prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst adolescents and young adults in KwaZulu-Natal. METHODS: We are conducting a 2 × 2 factorial trial among young men and women aged 16-29 years, randomly selected from the Africa Health Research Institute demographic surveillance area. Participants are randomly allocated to one of four intervention combinations: 1) Standard of Care (SOC): nurse-led services for HIV testing plus ART if positive or PrEP for those eligible and negative; 2) Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH): Baseline self-collected vaginal and urine samples with study-organized clinic appointments for results, treatment and delivery of HIV testing, ART and PrEP integrated with SRH services; 3) Peer-support: Study referral of participants to a peer navigator to assess their health, social and educational needs and provide risk-informed HIV prevention, including facilitating clinic attendance; or 4) SRH + peer-support. The primary outcomes for effectiveness are: (1) the proportion of individuals with infectious HIV at 12 months and (2) uptake of risk-informed comprehensive HIV prevention services within 60 days of enrolment. At 12 months, all participants will be contacted at home and the study team will collect a dried blood spot for HIV ELISA and HIV viral load testing. DISCUSSION: This trial will enable us to understand the relative importance of SRH and peer support in creating demand for effective and risk informed biomedical HIV prevention and preliminary data on their effectiveness on reducing the prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst all adolescents and youth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial Registry: clincialtrials.gov. CLINICALTRIALS: gov Identifier NCT04532307 . Registered: March 2020.

Rethinking the health implications of society-environment relationships in built areas: An assessment of the access to healthy and hazards index in the context of COVID-19.

Urban environments have been evolving to mitigate threats to the health and wellbeing of societies for thousands of years, including establishing open spaces to combat bubonic plague, improving waste management in the 20th century, and more recently retrofitting urban landscapes with green space to promote physical exercise. In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic there is a need to rethink how societies interact with space in built environments to prevent contagion at the same time as facilitating health behaviours, such as exercise. Previously, we examined the spatial relationship between features of urban landscapes that are commonly considered to be 'hazardous' and 'healthy' and unusual clusters of COVID-19 cases in the East Midlands of the UK using ambulance data. Here, we consider the nature of social engagement that these features of urban landscapes facilitate and identify society-environment interactions that may increase risk of exposure to the virus. In some cases, spaces that are commonly thought to promote health behaviour may increase exposure. Contagion hot-spots occur at the nexus of exposure and underlying susceptibility. The viral-host dynamics of infectious disease are changing. Now, as in past eras, societies are required to evolve and adapt to the new challenges presented by emerging infectious diseases in the modern world.

An exploration of factors characterising unusual spatial clusters of COVID-19 cases in the East Midlands region, UK: A geospatial analysis of ambulance 999 data.

Complex interactions between physical landscapes and social factors increase vulnerability to emerging infections and their sequelae. Relative vulnerability to severe illness and/or death (VSID) depends on risk and extent of exposure to a virus and underlying health susceptibility. Identifying vulnerable communities and the regions they inhabit in real time is essential for effective rapid response to a new pandemic, such as COVID-19. In the period between first confirmed cases and the introduction of widespread community testing, ambulance records of suspected severe illness from COVID-19 could be used to identify vulnerable communities and regions and rapidly appraise factors that may explain VSID. We analyse the spatial distribution of more than 10,000 suspected severe COVID-19 cases using records of provisional diagnoses made by trained paramedics attending medical emergencies. We identify 13 clusters of severe illness likely related to COVID-19 occurring in the East Midlands of the UK and present an in-depth analysis of those clusters, including urban and rural dynamics, the physical characteristics of landscapes, and socio-economic conditions. Our findings suggest that the dynamics of VSID vary depending on wider geographic location. Vulnerable communities and regions occur in more deprived urban centres as well as more affluent peri-urban and rural areas. This methodology could contribute to the development of a rapid national response to support vulnerable communities during emerging pandemics in real time to save lives.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance.

INTRODUCTION: Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation. METHODS: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs. RESULTS: In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

Acceptability of a tablet-based application to support early HIV testing among men in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a mixed method study.

Uptake of HIV testing remains low among men in South Africa. As part of a trial, we assessed the acceptability of a theoretically derived and adapted tablet-based-application (EPIC-HIV1) in rural South Africa. We conducted 20 in-depth interviews with men aged ≥18 years and offered a tablet-based survey to all men aged ≥15 years who received EPIC-HIV1 (Sep-Dec 2018). We conducted a descriptive analysis of the survey and used Self-Determination Theory (SDT) to guide our thematic analysis. A total of 232/307 (75%) completed the survey, 55% of whom were aged 15-24 years. 96%[ CI: 92.8-98.2%; n = 223] found EPIC-HIV1 acceptable and 77% [95% CI: 71.8-82.6%; n = 179] found it user-friendly. 222 [96%] reported that EPIC-HIV1 motivated them to test; 83% (192/232) tested for HIV, of which 33% (64/192) were first time testers. Those who did not consent (n = 40) were more likely to have had an HIV-positive test result. Participants reported that the app boosted their confidence to test. However, they were unsure that the app would help them overcome barriers to test in local clinics. Given reach and usability, an adapted SDT male-tailored app was found to be acceptable and could encourage positive health-seeking behavioural change among men.

Patterns of multimorbidity and their association with hospitalisation: a population-based study of older adults in urban Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: while the HIV epidemic remains a considerable challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, a dramatic reduction in the associated mortality has led to a fundamental shift in the public health priorities aimed at tackling multimorbidity. Against the unprecedented level of urbanisation taking place in Tanzania, the burden of multimorbidity and its consequences among ageing adults, in the form of costly inpatient hospitalisation, remain unquantified. METHODS: we used data from one of Africa's largest urban population cohort, the Dar es Salaam Health and the Demographic Surveillance System, to quantity the extent of multimorbidity (occurrence of 2 ≥ health conditions) and discordant multimorbidity (occurrence of conditions in 2 ≥ domains in mental health, non-communicable and communicable health) among 2,299 adults aged ≥40 years in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We fitted logistic regression models to investigate the association between multimorbidity and inpatient hospitalisation. RESULTS: the prevalence of multimorbidity and discordant multimorbidity were 25.3 and 2.5%, respectively. Although the severe forms of multimorbidity (2.0% with ≥4 health conditions) and discordancy were low, hospitalisation was significantly higher based on the regression analyses. Household food insecurity was the only socio-economic variable that was significantly and consistently associated with a greater hospitalisation. CONCLUSION: we found an alarmingly high degree of multimorbidity among this ageing urban population where hospitalisation was driven by multimorbidity. As public health resources remain scarce, reducing costly inpatient hospitalisation requires multilevel interventions that address clinical- and structural-level challenges (e.g. food insecurity) to mitigate multimorbidity and promote long-term healthy independent living among older adults in Tanzania.

Common mental disorders and HIV status in the context of DREAMS among adolescent girls and young women in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: HIV affects many adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa. Given the bi-directional HIV and mental health relationship, mental health services may help prevent and treat HIV in this population. We therefore examined the association between common mental disorders (CMD) and HIV-related behaviours and service utilisation, in the context of implementation of the combination DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe) HIV prevention programme in rural uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal. DREAMS involved delivering a package of multiple interventions in a single area to address multiple sources of HIV risk for AGYW. METHODS: We analysed baseline data from an age-stratified, representative cohort of 13-22 year-old AGYW. We measured DREAMS uptake as a count of the number of individual-level or community-based interventions each participant received in the last 12 months. CMD was measured using the validated Shona Symptom Questionnaire, with a cut off score ≥ 9 indicating probable CMD. HIV status was ascertained through home-based serotesting. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between CMD and HIV status adjusting for socio-demographics and behaviours. RESULTS: Probable CMD prevalence among the 2184 respondents was 22.2%, increasing steadily from 10.1% among 13 year-old girls to 33.1% among 22 year-old women. AGYW were more likely to report probable CMD if they tested positive for HIV (odds ratio vs. test negative: 1.88, 95% confidence interval: 1.40-2.53). After adjusting for socio-demographics and behaviours, there was evidence that probable CMD was more prevalent among respondents who reported using multiple healthcare-related DREAMS interventions. CONCLUSION: We found high prevalence of probable CMD among AGYW in rural South Africa, but it was only associated with HIV serostatus when not controlling for HIV acquisition risk factors. Our findings highlight that improving mental health service access for AGYW at high risk for HIV acquisition might protect them. Interventions already reaching AGYW with CMD, such as DREAMS, can be used to deliver mental health services to reduce both CMD and HIV risks. There is a need to integrate mental health education into existing HIV prevention programmes in school and communities.

Migration and first-year maternal mortality among HIV-positive postpartum women: A population-based longitudinal study in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, within-country migration is common. Mobility affects many of the factors in the pathway for entry to or retention in care among people living with HIV. We characterized the patterns of migration (i.e., change in residency) among peripartum women from rural South Africa and their association with first-year postpartum mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: All pregnant women aged ≥15 years were followed-up during pregnancy and the first year postpartum in a population-based longitudinal demographic and HIV surveillance program in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 2000 to 2016. During the household surveys (every 4-6 months), each household head was interviewed to record demographic components of the household, including composition, migration, and mortality. External migration was defined as moving (i.e., change in residency) into or out of the study area. For women of reproductive age, detailed information on new pregnancy and birth was recorded. Maternal death was ascertained via verbal autopsy and HIV status at delivery via annual HIV surveys. We fitted mixed-effects Cox regression models adjusting for multiple pregnancies per individual. Overall, 19,334 women had 30,291 pregnancies: 3,339 were HIV-positive, 10,958 were HIV-negative, and 15,994 had unknown HIV status at delivery. The median age was 24 (interquartile range: 20-30) years. During pregnancy and the first year postpartum, 64% (n = 19,344) and 13% (n = 3,994) did not migrate and resided within and outside the surveillance area, respectively. Of the 23% who had externally migrated at least once, 39% delivered outside the surveillance area. Overall, the mortality rate was 5.8 per 1,000 person-years (or 831 deaths per 100,000 live births) in the first year postpartum. The major causes of deaths were AIDS- or tuberculosis-related conditions both within 42 days of delivery (53%) and during the first year postpartum (62%). In this study, we observed that HIV-positive peripartum women who externally migrated and delivered outside the surveillance area had a hazard of mortality more than two times greater (hazard ratio = 2.74; 95% confidence interval 1.01-7.40, p-value = 0.047)-after adjusting for age, time period (before or after 2010), and sociodemographic status-compared to that of HIV-positive women who continuously resided within the surveillance area. Study limitations include lack of data on access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) care and social or clinical context at the destinations among mobile participants, which could lead to unmeasured confounding. Further information on how mobile postpartum women access and remain in care would be instructive. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that a substantial portion of peripartum women moved within the country around the time of delivery and experienced a significantly higher risk of mortality. Despite the scale-up of universal ART and declining trends in maternal mortality, there is an urgent need to derive a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying this finding and to develop targeted interventions for mobile HIV-positive peripartum women.