Measuring human capital: a systematic analysis of 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Human capital is recognised as the level of education and health in a population and is considered an important determinant of economic growth. The World Bank has called for measurement and annual reporting of human capital to track and motivate investments in health and education and enhance productivity. We aim to provide a new comprehensive measure of human capital across countries globally. METHODS: We generated a period measure of expected human capital, defined for each birth cohort as the expected years lived from age 20 to 64 years and adjusted for educational attainment, learning or education quality, and functional health status using rates specific to each time period, age, and sex for 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. We estimated educational attainment using 2522 censuses and household surveys; we based learning estimates on 1894 tests among school-aged children; and we based functional health status on the prevalence of seven health conditions, which were taken from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Mortality rates specific to location, age, and sex were also taken from GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, Finland had the highest level of expected human capital of 28·4 health, education, and learning-adjusted expected years lived between age 20 and 64 years (95% uncertainty interval 27·5-29·2); Niger had the lowest expected human capital of less than 1·6 years (0·98-2·6). In 2016, 44 countries had already achieved more than 20 years of expected human capital; 68 countries had expected human capital of less than 10 years. Of 195 countries, the ten most populous countries in 2016 for expected human capital were ranked: China at 44, India at 158, USA at 27, Indonesia at 131, Brazil at 71, Pakistan at 164, Nigeria at 171, Bangladesh at 161, Russia at 49, and Mexico at 104. Assessment of change in expected human capital from 1990 to 2016 shows marked variation from less than 2 years of progress in 18 countries to more than 5 years of progress in 35 countries. Larger improvements in expected human capital appear to be associated with faster economic growth. The top quartile of countries in terms of absolute change in human capital from 1990 to 2016 had a median annualised growth in gross domestic product of 2·60% (IQR 1·85-3·69) compared with 1·45% (0·18-2·19) for countries in the bottom quartile. INTERPRETATION: Countries vary widely in the rate of human capital formation. Monitoring the production of human capital can facilitate a mechanism to hold governments and donors accountable for investments in health and education. FUNDING: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Symptoms during the menopausal transition and early postmenopause and their relation to endocrine levels over time: observations from the Seattle Midlife Women's Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hot flashes, depressed mood, sleep, cognitive and sexual symptoms correlate with urinary follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), estrone (E(1)G), and testosterone (T) and with each other during the menopausal transition and early postmenopause (PM). METHODS: Forty-one women who transitioned from middle or late transition stage to PM rated symptoms and provided monthly urine specimens as part of a longitudinal study of the menopausal transition. RESULTS: Correlations between endocrine levels and symptom severity ratings over time revealed that hot flash severity was significantly and positively related to FSH and negatively to E1 G. Vaginal dryness was positively correlated with FSH and negatively correlated with T. Decreased sexual desire was correlated negatively with E(1)G levels. Forgetfulness was positively correlated with FSH; difficulty concentrating was negatively correlated with T. Severity of sleep symptoms and depressed mood were not correlated with E(1)G, FSH, or T. Correlations among the symptoms revealed that severity of hot flashes was associated with sleep disruption and forgetfulness. Depressed mood was correlated with sleep disruption, difficulty concentrating, and decreased sexual desire but not with hot flashes or vaginal dryness. Awakening during the night was correlated with decreased sexual desire and vaginal dryness, as well as hot flashes. Forgetfulness was associated with hot flashes and difficulty concentrating, whereas difficulty concentrating was associated with depressed mood and early awakening. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms many women experience during the menopausal transition and early PM are related to different endocrine levels (FSH, E(1)G, and T).

Increased urinary cortisol levels during the menopausal transition.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether cortisol levels change prospectively during the menopausal transition (MT); whether these changes are associated with changes in the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis (follicle-stimulating hormone [FSH] and estrone glucuronide [E1G]), stressors, or menopause symptoms; and whether women who experienced a rise in cortisol levels during the transition had behavioral practices, stressors, vasomotor symptoms, or mood or sleep disturbances that affected hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function. DESIGN: One hundred sixty-nine women in the middle or late MT or early postmenopause stages provided monthly urine specimens for cortisol, FSH, and E1G, and rated symptoms and stress levels as part of a longitudinal study of the MT. Of these women, 91 completed a transition to the next MT stage: from early to middle (n = 30), middle to late (n = 39), or late to postmenopause (n = 22) and were eligible for inclusion in the analyses. RESULTS: Cortisol increased from 7 to 12 months before the late MT stage to 7 to 12 months after onset of the late MT stage. There were no differences before and after the middle MT stage or the final menstrual period. Women with increased cortisol (>10 ng/mg creatinine) during the late MT stage had more severe vasomotor symptoms than those without changes, but did not differ in terms of age, body mass index, levels of FSH or E1G, health practices, exercise, mood, sleep, cognition, or stress levels. CONCLUSIONS: Cortisol levels rise with age, but have not been linked to stages of the MT. Increased cortisol levels during the late MT stage, when menstrual irregularities are greatest, suggests increases in adrenal androgens and intraabdominal fat with menopause, and may influence risk of cardiovascular disease, vasomotor symptoms, mood, cognition, and bone loss.