Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement.

What explains human consequences of weather-related disaster? Here, we explore how core socioeconomic, political, and security conditions shape flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. In-sample regression analysis shows that extreme displacement levels are more likely in contexts marked by low national income levels, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, and prevalence of armed conflict. The analysis also reveals large residual differences across continents, where flood-induced displacement in the Global South often is much more widespread than direct human exposure measures would suggest. However, these factors have limited influence on our ability to accurately predict flood displacement on new data, pointing to important, hard-to-operationalize heterogeneity in flood impacts across contexts and critical data limitations. Although results are consistent with an interpretation that the sustainable development agenda is beneficial for disaster risk reduction, better data on societal consequences of natural hazards are critically needed to support evidence-based decision-making.

Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989-2014.

The conditions under which a mother gives birth greatly affect the health risk of both the mother and the child. This article addresses how local exposure to organized violence affects whether women give birth in a health facility. We combine geocoded data on violent events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program with georeferenced survey data on the use of maternal health care services from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Our sample covers 569,201 births by 390,574 mothers in 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We use a mother fixed-effects analysis to estimate the effect of recent organized violence events within a radius of 50 km of the home of each mother on the likelihood that her child is born in a health facility. The results indicate that geographical and temporal proximity to organized violence significantly reduces the likelihood of institutional births. Although the level of maternal health care overall is lower in rural areas, the negative effect of violence appears to be stronger in urban areas. The study further underscores the importance of household and individual resilience, indicating that the effect of organized violence on institutional child delivery is greater among poor and less-educated mothers.

Russia's attacks on civilians strengthen Ukrainian resistance.

The all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine commencing in February 2022 has been characterized by systematic violence against civilians. Presumably, the commanders of Russian forces believe that, for example, the bombing of residential buildings will force Ukrainians to lay down their arms. We ask whether military attacks against civilians deter or, in contrast, motivate resistance against the attackers. Two-wave probability surveys were collected in Ukraine in March and April 2022 (Ns = 1,081 and 811, respectively). Preregistered analyses indicate that perceptions and experience of military attacks (victimization) did not decrease Ukrainians' motivations to resist the invading forces. The analyses suggest that victimization positively relates to motivations to join military combat in defense positions. Military attacks against civilians are morally impermissible and prohibited under international humanitarian law. Our results suggest that such attacks are also counterproductive from a military perspective.