A new clinical and prognostic characterization of the patterns of decompensation of cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic impact of acute decompensation (AD), i.e. the development of complications that require hospitalization, has recently been assessed. However, complications of cirrhosis do not necessarily require hospitalization and can develop progressively, as in the recently defined non-acute decompensation (NAD). Nevertheless, there is no data regarding the incidence and prognostic impact of NAD. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and the prognostic impact of NAD and AD in outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 617 outpatients with cirrhosis from two Italian tertiary centers (Padua and Milan) were enrolled from January 2003 to June 2021 and followed prospectively until the end of the study, death or liver transplantation. The complications registered during follow-up were considered as AD if they required hospitalization, or NAD if managed at the outpatient clinic. RESULTS: During follow-up, 154 patients (25.0% of total patients) developed complications, 69 patients (44.8%) developed NAD and 85 (55.2%) developed AD, while 29 patients with NAD (42.0%) developed a further episode of AD during follow-up. Sixty-month survival was significantly higher in patients with no decompensation than in patients with NAD or AD. On multivariable analysis, AD (hazard ratio [HR] 21.07, p <0.001), NAD (HR 7.13, p <0.001), the etiological cure of cirrhosis (HR 0.38, p <0.001) and model for end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.12, p = 0.003) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The first decompensation is non-acute in almost 50% of outpatients, though such events are still associated with decreased survival compared to no decompensation. Patients who develop NAD must be treated with extreme care and monitored closely to prevent the development of AD. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This multicenter study is the first to investigate the role of non-acute decompensation (NAD) in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, while the unfavorable impact of acute decompensation is well known, there is currently a dearth of evidence on NAD, despite it being a common occurrence in clinical practice. Our data show that almost half of decompensations in patients with cirrhosis can be considered NAD and that such events are associated with a higher risk of mortality than no decompensation. This study has important clinical implications because it highlights the need to carefully consider patients who develop NAD, in order to prevent further decompensation and reduce mortality.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Recompensation of cirrhosis in candidates of transplant: Tips and tricks for delisting.

Liver transplantation (LT) is the most successful treatment for patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The availability of effective and safe etiological treatments has altered the natural history of decompensated cirrhosis. Recently, the concept of recompensation has been defined. Patients who achieve recompensation may be removed from the waiting list for LT. Therefore, achieving an etiological cure is the cornerstone in the treatment of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, most patients improve their liver function after an etiologic cure, and only a proportion of patients achieve true recompensation after an etiological cure. Some patients maintain a condition of "MELD purgatory," that is, an improvement in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score without relevant clinical improvement that prevents delisting and may be even detrimental because lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score delays LT. Herein, we review the available evidence regarding recompensation and the management of recompensated patients on the waiting list for LT.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in patients with cirrhosis and acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) could help discriminate between different etiologies of AKI. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of uNGAL in (1) the differential diagnosis of AKI, (2) predicting the response to terlipressin and albumin in patients with hepatorenal syndrome-AKI (HRS-AKI), and (3) predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with AKI. APPROACH AND RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and AKI were included from 2015 to 2020 and followed until transplant, death, or 90 days. Standard urinary markers and uNGAL were measured. Data on treatment, type, and resolution of AKI were collected. Thirty-five patients (21.6%) had prerenal AKI, 64 (39.5%) HRS-AKI, 27 (16.7%) acute tubular necrosis-AKI (ATN-AKI), and 36 (22.2%) a mixed form of AKI. Mean values of uNGAL were significantly higher in ATN-AKI than in other types of AKI (1162 ng/ml [95% CI 423-2105 ng/ml] vs. 109 ng/ml [95% CI 52-192 ng/ml]; p  < 0.001). uNGAL showed a high discrimination ability in predicting ATN-AKI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.854; 95% CI 0.767-0.941; p  < 0.001). The best-performing threshold was found to be 220 ng/ml (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 78%). The same threshold was independently associated with a higher risk of nonresponse (adjusted OR [aOR], 6.17; 95% CI 1.41-27.03; p  = 0.016). In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, acute-on-chronic liver failure, leukocytes, and type of AKI), uNGAL was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (aOR, 1.74; 95% CI 1.26-2.38; p  = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: uNGAL is an adequate biomarker for making a differential diagnosis of AKI in cirrhosis and predicting the response to terlipressin and albumin in patients with HRS-AKI. In addition, it is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality.

Etiological cure prevents further decompensation and mortality in patients with cirrhosis with ascites as the single first decompensating event.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Removal/suppression of the primary etiological factor reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in compensated cirrhosis. However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the impact of etiologic treatment is less predictable. We aimed to evaluate the impact of etiological treatment in patients with cirrhosis who developed ascites as single index decompensating event. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensation event were included and followed until death, liver transplantation, or Q3/2021. The etiology was considered "cured" (alcohol abstinence, hepatitis C cure, and hepatitis B suppression) versus "controlled" (partial removal of etiologic factors) versus "uncontrolled." A total of 622 patients were included in the study. Etiology was "cured" in 146 patients (24%), "controlled" in 170 (27%), and "uncontrolled" in 306 (49%). During follow-up, 350 patients (56%) developed further decompensation. In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, sex, varices, etiology, Child-Pugh class, creatinine, sodium, and era of decompensation), etiological cure was independently associated with a lower risk of further decompensation (HR: 0.46; p = 0.001). During follow-up, 250 patients (40.2%) died, while 104 (16.7%) underwent LT. In multivariable analysis, etiological cure was independently associated with a lower mortality risk (HR: 0.35, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensating event, the cure of liver disease etiology represents a main treatment goal since this translates into considerably lower risks of further decompensation and mortality.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Mechanisms and treatment approaches for ACLF.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening syndrome characterized by decompensation of cirrhosis, severe systemic inflammation and organ failures. ACLF is frequently triggered by intra- and/or extrahepatic insults, such as bacterial infections, alcohol-related hepatitis or flares of hepatic viruses. The imbalance between systemic inflammation and immune tolerance causes organ failures through the following mechanisms: (i) direct damage of immune cells/mediators; (ii) worsening of circulatory dysfunction resulting in organ hypoperfusion and (iii) metabolic alterations with prioritization of energetic substrates for inflammation and peripheral organ 'energetic crisis'. Currently, the management of ACLF includes the support of organ failures, the identification and treatment of precipitating factors and expedited assessment for liver transplantation (LT). Early LT should be considered in patients with ACLF grade 3, who are unlikely to recover with the available treatments and have a mortality rate > 70% at 28 days. However, the selection of transplant candidates and their prioritization on the LT waiting list need standardization. Future challenges in the ACLF field include a better understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms leading to inflammation and organ failures, the development of specific treatments for the disease and personalized treatment approaches. Herein, we reviewed the current knowledge and future perspectives on mechanisms and treatment of ACLF.

Response to Terlipressin and Albumin Is Associated With Improved Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients With Hepatorenal Syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although terlipressin and albumin are effective at treating acute kidney injury-hepatorenal syndrome (AKI-HRS), liver transplantation (LT) is the best treatment. However, it is unclear if an effective treatment with terlipressin and albumin improves post-LT outcomes in these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of response to treatment with terlipressin and albumin on posttransplant outcomes in patients with AKI-HRS. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed two cohorts of patients with cirrhosis listed for LT between 2012 and 2016: 82 patients who developed AKI-HRS before LT and were treated with terlipressin and albumin and 259 patients without AKI-HRS who received transplants during the study period (control group). After LT, patients were followed up until discharge, every month for the first 3 months, and every 3 months thereafter. Of the patients, 43 (52%) responded to terlipressin and albumin. Responders had a better 30-day transplant-free survival (60% vs. 33%, P = 0.006), longer LT waiting list time (37 vs. 17 days, P = 0.041), and lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at the time of LT (23 vs. 29, P = 0.007). Among patients with AKI-HRS receiving transplant, nonresponders required renal replacement therapy (RRT) more frequently than responders (20% vs. 0%, P = 0.024). Nonresponders had a significantly higher incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) at 1 year after LT than responders (65% vs. 31%, P = 0.019). In multivariate analysis, nonresponse to terlipressin and albumin was found to be an independent predictor for CKD at 1 year after LT (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] = 2.76, P = 0.001), whereas responders did not have an increased risk (SHR = 1.53, P = 0.210). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AKI-HRS, response to terlipressin and albumin reduces the need for RRT after LT and reduces the risk of CKD at 1 year after LT.

Natural history of acute kidney disease in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In 2012, the KDIGO group proposed new definitions for acute kidney injury (AKI), acute kidney disease (AKD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). According to the definition adapted by the International Club of Ascites, AKI has been extensively investigated in patients with cirrhosis. On the contrary, there are currently no data on the epidemiology and clinical outcomes associated with AKD. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence and the impact of AKD on the clinical course and survival of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 272 consecutive patients with cirrhosis attending our outpatient clinic were included in the study. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at inclusion. Patients were followed-up until death, liver transplant or the end of follow-up. RESULTS: During follow-up, 80 patients developed AKD (29.4%). Forty-two (52.5%) recovered from the first episode of AKD and 26 maintained a normal renal function up to the end of follow-up. Sixteen patients developed a second episode of AKD. Globally, 36 patients (45.0%) died with AKD. Finally, AKD progressed to CKD in 11 patients (13.8%). The 5-year survival rate was significantly lower in patients who developed AKD than in those who did not (34.8% vs. 88.8%, p <0.001). The 5-year rates of complications of cirrhosis and of hospitalizations were also higher in patients with AKD than in those without AKD. CONCLUSIONS: AKD is frequent in patients with cirrhosis. It can be reversible, but it may recur and progress to CKD. AKD has a very negative impact on morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: Renal impairment has a very negative impact on patients with cirrhosis. Renal impairment seems to be characterized by a very dynamic course, which is defined according to renal function and length of the impairment as acute kidney injury, acute kidney disease and chronic kidney disease. The role of acute kidney disease is currently unknown. Our study shows for the first time that acute kidney disease is frequent in patients with cirrhosis and has a very negative impact on survival.

Outcomes and Mortality of Grade 1 Ascites and Recurrent Ascites in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ascites has been classified according to quantity and response to medical therapy. Despite its precise definitions, little is known about the effects of grade 1 ascites or recurrent ascites (i.e. ascites that recurs at least on 3 occasions within a 12-month period despite dietary sodium restriction and adequate diuretic dosage) on patient outcome. We studied progression of grade 1 ascites and recurrent ascites in a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis of data from 547 outpatients with cirrhosis (259 without ascites, 54 patients with grade 1 ascites, 234 with grade 2 or 3 ascites) who participated a care management program study in Italy from March 2003 through September 2017. We collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and patients were evaluated at least every 6 months. Patients received abdominal ultrasound analysis at study inclusion and at least twice a year. Number and volume of paracentesis were collected, when available. Patients were followed until death, liver transplantation, or March 2018. The median follow-up time was 29 months. Primary outcomes were mortality and development of complications of cirrhosis. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in 60-month transplant-free survival between patients with grade 1 vs grade 2 or 3 ascites (36% vs 43%) but survival was significantly lower when both groups were compared with patients without ascites (68%; P < .001 for both comparisons). However, the grade of systemic inflammation and the rate of complications were significantly greater in patients with grade 1 ascites than in patients without ascites, but significantly lower than in patients with grade 2 or 3 ascites. Development of grade 2 or 3 ascites did not differ significantly between patients with no ascites vs grade 1 ascites (10% vs 14%). There was no significant difference in 36-month transplant-free survival between patients with ascites responsive to medical treatment vs recurrent ascites (78% vs 62%), whereas patients with refractory ascites had significantly lower survival than patients with responsive or recurrent ascites (23%; responsive vs refractory ascites P<.001; recurrent vs refractory ascites P = .022). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis, we found that grade 1 ascites is associated with systemic inflammation, more complications, and increased mortality compared with no ascites. Mortality does not differ significantly between patients with recurrent ascites vs ascites responsive to medical treatment.

Including Relative Adrenal Insufficiency in Definition and Classification of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Relative adrenal insufficiency (RAI) is defined by insufficient production of cortisol relative to organ demand. RAI is observed frequently in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, but there is disagreement over the clinical effects of RAI in these patients. We evaluated the prevalence and the clinical effects of RAI in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 160 patients admitted to a hospital in Italy for acute decompensation of cirrhosis from May 2011 through September 2016. Patients were followed up until death, liver transplantation, or a maximum of 90 days. Serum and salivary levels of cortisol were measured before and after a 1-hour Short Synacthen Test. A diagnosis of RAI was given to patients with an increase in serum cortisol of less than 9 µg/dL, after Synacthen administration, in patients with baseline serum levels of cortisol less than 35 µg/dL. We collected blood samples before the Synacthen test and analyzed them for blood cell counts, liver and renal function, levels of C-reactive protein, and lipid profiles (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein-A1). RESULTS: A diagnosis of RAI was made for 78 patients (49%). Age (odds ratio [OR], 0.95; P = .030), number of leukocytes (OR, 3.10; P = .006), and levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR, 0.30; P = .039) were associated independently with RAI. Patients with RAI had a significantly higher risk of developing bacterial infections (hazard ratio [HR], 1.60; P = .038), sepsis (HR, 2.95; P = .001), septic shock (HR, 4.94; P = .038), new organ failures (HR, 2.45; P = .014), and acute-on-chronic liver failure (HR, 2.27; P = .037) than patients without RAI. RAI was associated independently with death within 90 days of diagnosis (subdistribution HR, 4.83; P = .001). Patients with RAI and mild renal dysfunction or hepatic encephalopathy had no significant difference in cumulative incidence of 28-day mortality vs patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 1 (25% vs 22%). CONCLUSIONS: We found RAI to occur in almost half of patients admitted to a hospital for acute decompensation of cirrhosis. RAI was associated with a deficit of substrates for steroidogenesis and an increase in markers of inflammation. Patients with RAI have a high risk of developing sepsis, septic shock, organ failure, and death within 90 days. RAI has similar prognostic value to nonrenal organ failures.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System That Includes Corrected QT Interval for Risk Analysis of Patients With Cirrhosis and Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The electrocardiographic QT interval frequently is prolonged in patients with cirrhosis. Acute gastrointestinal bleeding further prolongs corrected QT (QTc) in patients with cirrhosis, which has been associated with an increased risk of death within 6 weeks. We aimed to confirm these findings and develop a mortality risk index that incorporates QTc. METHODS: We collected data from 274 patients with cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding from any cause admitted to a hospital in Bologna, Italy, from January 2001 through December 2012 (training set). We used logistic regression analysis to identify patient factors associated with death within 6 weeks (6-week mortality). We validated our findings by using data from 200 patients with cirrhosis and gastrointestinal bleeding treated at 2 separate hospitals in Italy, from 2001 through 2016 and 2007 through 2012. Our primary aim was to confirm the prognostic effects of prolonged QTc in a large population of patients and develop a 6-week mortality risk score for acute gastrointestinal bleeding from any cause that incorporates the QTc interval. RESULTS: In the training set, QTc greater than 456 ms, the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score, previous bleeding, and serum albumin concentration were associated independently with 6-week mortality. We combined these parameters to create a risk scoring system that we named MELD-Na acute gastrointestinal bleeding (MELDNa-AGIB). In the validation set, the MELDNa-AGIB identified patients who died within 6 weeks with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.888; this value was higher than that of the MELD score (AUROC, 0.838; P = .031), MELD score with updated calibration (AUROC, 0.837; P = .029), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (AUROC, 0.789; P = .004), D'Amico score (AUROC, 0.761; P = .003), and Augustin score (AUROC, 0.792; P = .001), with a net reclassification improvement better than the MELD-Na score (0.266; P = .045). In calibration, the MELDNa-AGIB produced a high score in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = .947), which was superior to that of MELD-Na (P = .146). In the training set, only 6.3% of patients with MELDNa-AGIB scores of 4 or less died within 6 weeks. Among patients with a scores of 9, 16, and 25 or higher, 15.5%, 41.5%, and 81% or more patients died within 6 weeks, respectively. The probability of survival progressively and significantly decreased with increasing scores in the training and validation sets. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed QTc as an independent predictor of 6-week mortality in a large population of patients with cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding. The combination of QTc, MELD-Na, previous bleeding, and serum albumin (the MELDNa-AGIB score) accurately determines the risk of 6-week mortality, providing timely identification of patients at very high risk of death.

Cardiovascular predictors of death in patients with cirrhosis.

Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy is associated with poor outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. We investigated if subclinical cardiac morphologic and functional modifications can influence survival in patients with cirrhosis during follow-up. A series of patients with cirrhosis without cardiovascular or pulmonary disease underwent standard and tissue Doppler echocardiography to assess left ventricular geometry, systolic/diastolic function, and the main haemodynamic parameters. After baseline evaluation 115 patients with cirrhosis were followed up for at least 6 years. During follow-up 54 patients died (47%). On univariate analysis, age, body surface area (BSA), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), mean arterial pressure, heart rate, cardiac index, systemic vascular resistance index, and the ratio of transmitral Doppler early filling velocity to tissue Doppler early diastolic mitral annular velocity (E/è) were associated with increased risk of death. In a Cox hazard regression analysis including these factors and other hypothesized important factors (but not MELD), increased age (P = 0.04) and left atrial dimension (P = 0.005) and lower BSA (P = 0.03) were the strongest predictors of death. When MELD was included in the analysis, the main predictors were MELD, age, and BSA. When multivariate analysis was performed incorporating only cardiovascular parameters, increased E/è (P = 0.003) and heart rate (P = 0.03) and reduced mean blood pressure (P = 0.01) were significantly associated with poor prognosis. CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis and after a long follow-up, MELD, age, and BSA were the main predictors of death; among cardiovascular parameters, left atrium enlargement, increased heart rate and E/è, and reduced mean blood pressure were independent predictors of death. (Hepatology 2018).

Assessment of Sepsis-3 criteria and quick SOFA in patients with cirrhosis and bacterial infections.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with cirrhosis have a high risk of sepsis, which confers a poor prognosis. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria have several limitations in cirrhosis. Recently, new criteria for sepsis (Sepsis-3) have been suggested in the general population (increase of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) ≥2 points from baseline). Outside the intensive care unit (ICU), the quick SOFA (qSOFA (at least two among alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure ≤100 mm Hg or respiratory rate ≥22/min)) was suggested to screen for sepsis. These criteria have never been evaluated in patients with cirrhosis. The aim of the study was to assess the ability of Sepsis-3 criteria in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis and bacterial/fungal infections. METHODS: 259 consecutive patients with cirrhosis and bacterial/fungal infections were prospectively included. Demographic, laboratory and microbiological data were collected at diagnosis of infection. Baseline SOFA was assessed using preadmission data. Patients were followed up until death, liver transplantation or discharge. Findings were externally validated (197 patients). RESULTS: Sepsis-3 and qSOFA had significantly greater discrimination for in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC)=0.784 and 0.732, respectively) than SIRS (AUROC=0.606) (p<0.01 for both). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort. Sepsis-3 (subdistribution HR (sHR)=5.47; p=0.006), qSOFA (sHR=1.99; p=0.020), Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score (sHR=1.05; p=0.001) and C reactive protein (sHR=1.01;p=0.034) were found to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Patients with Sepsis-3 had higher incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, septic shock and transfer to ICU than those without Sepsis-3. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis-3 criteria are more accurate than SIRS criteria in predicting the severity of infections in patients with cirrhosis. qSOFA is a useful bedside tool to assess risk for worse outcomes in these patients. Patients with Sepsis-3 and positive qSOFA deserve more intensive management and strict surveillance.

Association Between Grade of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure and Response to Terlipressin and Albumin in Patients With Hepatorenal Syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is the most high-risk type of renal failure in patients with cirrhosis. Terlipressin and albumin are effective treatments for type 1 HRS. However, the effects of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) grade on response to treatment are not clear. We aimed to identify factors associated with response to treatment with terlipressin and albumin in patients with type 1 HRS (reduction in serum level of creatinine to below 1.5 mg/dL at the end of treatment) and factors associated with death within 90 days of HRS diagnosis (90-day mortality). METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 4 different cohorts of consecutive patients with HRS treated with terlipressin and albumin from February 2007 through January 2016 at medical centers in Europe (total, 298 patients). We analyzed demographic, clinical, and laboratory data collected before and during treatment; patients were followed until death, liver transplantation, or 90 days after HRS diagnosis. RESULTS: Response to treatment was observed in 53% of patients. Of patients with grade 1 ACLF, 60% responded to treatment; among those with grade 2 ACLF, 48% responded, and among those with grade 3 ACLF, 29% responded (P < .001 for comparison between grades). In multivariate analysis, baseline serum level of creatinine (odds ratio, 0.23; P = .001) and ACLF grade (odds ratio, 0.63; P = .01) were independently associated with response to treatment. Patient age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; P < .001), white blood cell count (HR, 1.51; P = .006), ACLF grade (HR, 2.06; P < .001), and no response to treatment (HR, 0.41; P < .001) associated with 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: In a retrospective analysis of data from 4 cohorts of patients treated for type 1 HRS, we found ACLF grade to be the largest determinant of response to terlipressin and albumin. ACLF grade affects survival independently of response to treatment. New therapeutic strategies should be developed for patients with type 1 HRS and extrarenal organ failure.

Incidence, predictors and outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure in outpatients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the most life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. Prevalence and outcomes of ACLF have recently been described in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. However, no data is currently available on the prevalence and the risk factors of ACLF in outpatients with cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate incidence, predictors and outcomes of ACLF in a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 466 patients with cirrhosis consecutively evaluated in the outpatient clinic of a tertiary hospital were included and followed up until death and/or liver transplantation for a mean of 45±44months. Data on development of hepatic and extrahepatic organ failures were collected during this period. ACLF was defined and graded according to the EASL-CLIF Consortium definition. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 118 patients (25%) developed ACLF: 57 grade-1, 33 grade-2 and 28 grade-3. The probability of developing ACLF was 14%, 29%, and 41% at 1year, 5years, and 10years, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, baseline mean arterial pressure (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96; p=0.012), ascites (HR 2.53; p=0.019), model of end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.26; p<0.001) and baseline hemoglobin (HR 0.07; p=0.012) were found to be independent predictors of the development of ACLF at one year. As expected, ACLF was associated with a poor prognosis, with a 3-month probability of transplant-free survival of 56%. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatients with cirrhosis have a high risk of developing ACLF. The degree of liver failure and circulatory dysfunction are associated with the development of ACLF, as well as low values of hemoglobin. These simple variables may help to identify patients at a high risk of developing ACLF and to plan a program of close surveillance and prevention in these patients. LAY SUMMARY: There is a need to identify predictors of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis in order to identify patients at high risk of developing ACLF and to plan strategies of prevention. In this study, we identified four simple predictors of ACLF: model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, ascites, mean arterial pressure and hemoglobin. These variables may help to identify patients with cirrhosis, at a high risk of developing ACLF, that are candidates for new strategies of surveillance and prevention. Anemia is a potential new target for treating these patients.

Predictors of Early Readmission in Patients With Cirrhosis After the Resolution of Bacterial Infections.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with cirrhosis, infections represent a frequent trigger for complications, increasing frequency of hospitalizations and mortality rate. This study aimed to identify predictors of early readmission (30 days) and of mid-term mortality (6 months) in patients with liver cirrhosis discharged after a hospitalization for bacterial and/or fungal infection. METHODS: A total of 199 patients with cirrhosis discharged after an admission for a bacterial and/or fungal infection were included in the study and followed up for a least 6 months. RESULTS: During follow-up, 69 patients (35%) were readmitted within 30 days from discharge. C-reactive protein (CRP) value at discharge (odds ratio (OR)=1.91; P=0.022), diagnosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure during the hospital stay (OR=2.48; P=0.008), and the hospitalization in the last 30 days previous to the admission/inclusion in the study (OR=1.50; P=0.042) were found to be independent predictors of readmission. During the 6-month follow-up, 47 patients (23%) died. Age (hazard ratio (HR)=1.05; P=0.001), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (HR=1.13; P<0.001), CRP (HR=1.85; P=0.001), refractory ascites (HR=2.22; P=0.007), and diabetes (HR=2.41; P=0.010) were found to be independent predictors of 6-month mortality. Patients with a CRP >10 mg/l at discharge had a significantly higher probability of being readmitted within 30 days (44% vs. 24%; P=0.007) and a significantly lower probability of 6-month survival (62% vs. 88%; P<0.001) than those with a CRP ≤10 mg/l. CONCLUSIONS: CRP showed to be a strong predictor of early hospital readmission and 6-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis after hospitalization for bacterial and/or fungal infection. CRP values could be used both in the stewardship of antibiotic treatment and to identify fragile patients who deserve a strict surveillance program.