Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Group B Streptococcal Disease in England (1998 - 2017): A Population-based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the leading cause of sepsis and meningitis in infants <90 days. In this study, the burden of GBS disease and mortality in young infants in England was assessed. METHODS: Using linked hospitalization records from every National Health Service (NHS) hospital from April 1, 1998 to March 31, 2017, we calculated annual GBS incidence in infants aged <90 days and, using regression models, compared their perinatal factors, rates of hospital-recorded disease outcomes, and all-cause infant mortality rates with those of the general infant population. RESULTS: 15 429 infants aged <90 days had a hospital-recorded diagnosis of GBS, giving an average annual incidence of 1.28 per 1000 live births (95% CI 1.26-1.30) with no significant trend over time. GBS-attributable mortality declined significantly from 0.044 (95% CI .029-.065) per 1000 live births in 2001 to 0.014 (95% CI .010-.026) in 2017 (annual percentage change -6.6, 95% CI -9.1 to -4.0). Infants with GBS had higher relative rates of visual impairment (HR 7.0 95% CI 4.1-12.1), cerebral palsy (HR 9.3 95% CI 6.6-13.3), hydrocephalus (HR 17.3 95% CI 13.8-21.6), and necrotizing enterocolitis (HR 18.8 95% CI 16.7-21.2) compared with those without GBS. CONCLUSIONS: Annual rates of GBS disease in infants have not changed over 19 years. The reduction in mortality is likely multifactorial and due to widespread implementation of antibiotics in at-risk mothers and babies, as well as advances in managing acutely unwell infants. New methods for prevention, such as maternal vaccination, must be prioritized.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Serogroup C Meningococcal Meningitis Spread in Niger and Nigeria and Implications for Epidemic Response.

BACKGROUND: After the re-emergence of serogroup C meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Nigeria and Niger, we aimed to re-evaluate the vaccination policy used to respond to outbreaks of MM in the African meningitis belt by investigating alternative strategies using a lower incidence threshold and information about neighboring districts. METHODS: We used data on suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases in Niger and Nigeria from 2013 to 2017. We calculated global and local Moran's I-statistics to identify spatial clustering of districts with high MM incidence. We used a Pinner model to estimate the impact of vaccination campaigns occurring between 2015 and 2017 and to evaluate the impact of 3 alternative district-level vaccination strategies, compared with that currently used. RESULTS: We found significant clustering of high incidence districts in every year, with local clusters around Tambuwal, Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, Niamey, Niger in 2016, and in Sokoto and Zamfara States in Nigeria in 2017.We estimate that the vaccination campaigns implemented in 2015, 2016, and 2017 prevented 6% of MM cases. Using the current strategy but with high coverage (85%) and timely distribution (4 weeks), these campaigns could have prevented 10% of cases. This strategy required the fewest doses of vaccine to prevent a case. None of the alternative strategies we evaluated were more efficient, but they would have prevented the occurrence of more cases overall. CONCLUSIONS: Although we observed significant spatial clustering in MM in Nigeria and Niger between 2013 and 2017, there is no strong evidence to support a change in methods for epidemic response in terms of lowering the intervention threshold or targeting neighboring districts for reactive vaccination.

Narrative review of methods and findings of recent studies on the carriage of meningococci and other Neisseria species in the African Meningitis Belt.

OBJECTIVE: To review the findings of studies of pharyngeal carriage of Neisseria meningitidis and related species conducted in the African meningitis belt since a previous review published in 2007. METHODS: PubMed and Web of Science were searched in July 2018 using the terms 'meningococcal OR Neisseria meningitidis OR lactamica AND carriage AND Africa', with the search limited to papers published on or after 1st January 2007. We conducted a narrative review of these publications. RESULTS: One hundred and thirteen papers were identified using the search terms described above, 20 of which reported new data from surveys conducted in an African meningitis belt country. These papers described 40 surveys conducted before the introduction of the group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVacR ) during which 66 707 pharyngeal swabs were obtained. Carriage prevalence of N. meningitidis varied substantially by time and place, ranging from <1% to 24%. The mean pharyngeal carriage prevalence of N. meningitidis across all surveys was 4.5% [95% CI: 3.4%, 6.8%] and that of capsulated N. meningitidis was 2.8% [95% CI: 1.9%; 5.2%]. A study of households provided strong evidence for meningococcal transmission within and outside households. The introduction of MenAfriVac® led to marked reductions in carriage of the serogroup A meningococcus in Burkina Faso and Chad. CONCLUSIONS: Recent studies employing standardised methods confirm the findings of older studies that carriage of N. meningitidis in the African meningitis belt is highly variable over time and place, but generally occurs with a lower prevalence and shorter duration than reported from industrialised countries.

Risk factors for acquisition of meningococcal carriage in the African meningitis belt.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate potential risk factors for acquisition in seven countries of the meningitis belt. METHODS: Households were followed up every 2 weeks for 2 months, then monthly for a further 4 months. Pharyngeal swabs were collected from all available household members at each visit and questionnaires completed. Risks of acquisition over the whole study period and for each visit were analysed by a series of logistic regressions. RESULTS: Over the course of the study, acquisition was higher in: (i) 5-to 14-year olds, as compared with those 30 years or older (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.4-9.9); (ii) smokers (OR 3.6, 95% CI 0.98-13); and (iii) those exposed to wood smoke at home (OR 2.6 95% CI 1.3-5.6). The risk of acquisition from one visit to the next was higher in those reporting a sore throat during the dry season (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.0-6.7) and lower in those reporting antibiotic use (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.03-0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Acquisition of meningococcal carriage peaked in school age children. Recent symptoms of sore throat during the dry season, but not during the rainy season, were associated with a higher risk of acquisition. Upper respiratory tract infections may be an important driver of epidemics in the meningitis belt.

OBJECTIF: Investiguer les facteurs de risque potentiels d'acquisition dans sept pays de la ceinture de la méningite. MÉTHODES: Des ménages ont été suivis toutes les deux semaines pendant deux mois, puis tous les mois pendant quatre mois. Des prélèvements pharyngés sur écouvillons ont été collectés auprès de tous les membres disponibles du ménage à chaque visite et des questionnaires ont été remplis. Les risques d'acquisition sur l'ensemble de la période d'étude et pour chaque visite ont été analysés par une série de régressions logistiques. RÉSULTATS: Au cours de l'étude, l'acquisition a été plus élevée chez: (i) les 5-14 ans, par rapport à ceux âgés de 30 ans ou plus (OR = 3,6; IC95%: 1,4-9,9); (ii) les fumeurs (OR = 3,6; IC95%: 0,98-13); et (iii) les personnes exposées à la fumée de bois à la maison (OR = 2,6; IC95%: 1,3-5,6). Le risque d'acquisition d'une visite à l'autre était plus élevé chez les personnes signalant un mal de gorge pendant la saison sèche (OR = 3,7; IC95%: 2,0-6,7) et plus faible chez celles signalant une utilisation d'antibiotique (OR = 0,17; IC95%: 0,03-0,56). CONCLUSIONS: L'acquisition du portage du méningocoque a culminé chez les enfants d'âge scolaire. Les symptômes récents de maux de gorge pendant la saison sèche, mais pas pendant la saison des pluies, étaient associés à un risque d'acquisition plus élevé. Les infections des voies respiratoires supérieures pourraient être un facteur important d'épidémies dans la ceinture de la méningite.

Hierarchical genomic analysis of carried and invasive serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis during the 2011 epidemic in Chad.

BACKGROUND: Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) was the cause of the 2011 meningitis epidemics in Chad. This bacterium, often carried asymptomatically, is considered to be an "accidental pathogen"; however, the transition from carriage to disease phenotype remains poorly understood. This study examined the role genetic diversity might play in this transition by comparing genomes from geographically and temporally matched invasive and carried NmA isolates. RESULTS: All 23 NmA isolates belonged to the ST-5 clonal complex (cc5). Ribosomal MLST comparison with other publically available NmA:cc5 showed that isolates were closely related, although those from Chad formed two distinct branches and did not cluster with other NmA, based on their MLST profile, geographical and temporal location. Whole genome MLST (wgMLST) comparison identified 242 variable genes among all Chadian isolates and clustered them into three distinct phylogenetic groups (Clusters 1, 2, and 3): no systematic clustering by disease or carriage source was observed. There was a significant difference (p = 0.0070) between the mean age of the individuals from which isolates from Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 were obtained, irrespective of whether the person was a case or a carrier. CONCLUSIONS: Whole genome sequencing provided high-resolution characterization of the genetic diversity of these closely related NmA isolates. The invasive meningococcal isolates obtained during the epidemic were not homogeneous; rather, a variety of closely related but distinct clones were circulating in the human population with some clones preferentially colonizing specific age groups, reflecting a potential age-related niche adaptation. Systematic genetic differences were not identified between carriage and disease isolates consistent with invasive meningococcal disease being a multi-factorial event resulting from changes in host-pathogen interactions along with the bacterium.

Alternative Molecular Methods for Improved Detection of Meningococcal Carriage and Measurement of Bacterial Density.

Conventional methods for detecting pharyngeal carriage of Neisseria meningitidis are complex. There is a need for simpler methods with improved performance. We have investigated two alternative approaches. Three pharyngeal swabs were collected from 999 pupils aged 10 to 18 years in The Gambia. Carriage of N. meningitidis was investigated by using three different methods: (i) plating on Thayer-Martin selective medium and testing by conventional microbiological methods followed by PCR testing; (ii) seeding in Todd-Hewitt broth (THB) and, after culture overnight, testing by PCR; and (iii) compression of the swab on filter paper and, after DNA concentration, testing by PCR. PCR after culture in THB was more than twice as sensitive as conventional methods in detecting N. meningitidis (13.2% versus 5.7%; P < 0.0001). PCR after DNA extraction from filter paper had a sensitivity similar to that of conventional methods (4.9% versus 5.7%; P = 0.33). Capsular genogroups detected by broth culture were genogroups W (21 isolates), B (12 isolates), Y (8 isolates), E (3 isolates), and X (2 isolates), and 68 meningococci had the capsule-null intergenic region. The distributions of genogroups and of capsule-null organisms were similar with each of the three methods. The carriage density in samples extracted from filter paper ranged from 1 to 25,000 DNA copies. PCR of broth cultures grown overnight doubled the yield of N. meningitidis carriage isolates compared with conventional methods. This approach could improve the efficiency of carriage studies. Collection on filter paper followed by quantitative PCR could be useful for density measurement and for carriage studies in areas with limited resources.

Barriers and facilitators to uptake of the school-based HPV vaccination programme in an ethnically diverse group of young women.

BACKGROUND: To identify the barriers and facilitators to uptake of the HPV vaccine in an ethnically diverse group of young women in the south west of England. METHODS: Three school-based vaccination sessions were observed. Twenty-three young women aged 12 to 13 years, and six key informants, were interviewed between October 2012 and July 2013. Data were analysed using thematic analysis and the Framework method for data management. RESULTS: The priority given to preventing cervical cancer in this age group influenced whether young women received the HPV vaccine. Access could be affected by differing levels of commitment by school staff, school nurses, parents and young women to ensure parental consent forms were returned. Beliefs and values, particularly relevant to minority ethnic groups, in relation to adolescent sexual activity may affect uptake. Literacy and language difficulties undermine informed consent and may prevent vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The school-based HPV vaccination programme successfully reaches the majority of young women. However, responsibility for key aspects remain unresolved which can affect delivery and prevent uptake for some groups. A multi-faceted approach, targeting appropriate levels of the socio-ecological model, is required to address procedures for consent and cultural and literacy barriers faced by minority ethnic groups, increase uptake and reduce inequalities.

Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1-29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term. METHODS: We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years' average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac.

Meningococcal Seroepidemiology 1 Year After the PsA-TT Mass Immunization Campaign in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: A group A meningococcal (MenA) conjugate vaccine, PsA-TT (MenAfriVac), was introduced in Burkina Faso via mass campaigns between September and December 2010, targeting the 1- to 29-year-old population. This study describes specific antibody titers in the general population 11 months later and compares them to preintroduction data obtained during 2008 using the same protocol. METHODS: During October-November 2011, we recruited a representative sample of the population of urban Bobo-Dioulasso aged 6 months to 29 years, who underwent standardized interviews and blood draws. We assessed anti-MenA immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations (n = 200) and, using rabbit complement, serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) titers against 2 group A strains: reference strain F8238 (SBAref) (n = 562) and strain 3125 (SBA3125) (n = 200). RESULTS: Among the 562 participants, 481 (86%) were aged ≥23 months and had been eligible for the PsA-TT campaign. Among them, vaccine coverage was 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.7%-89.9%). Prevalence of putatively protective antibodies among vaccine-eligible age groups was 97.3% (95% CI, 95.9%-98.7%) for SBAref titers ≥128, 83.6% (95% CI, 77.6%-89.7%) for SBA3125 ≥128, and 84.2% (95% CI, 78.7%-89.7%) for anti-MenA IgG ≥2 µg/mL. Compared to the population aged 23 months to 29 years during 2008, geometric mean titers of SBAref were 7.59-fold higher during 2011, 51.88-fold for SBA3125, and 10.56-fold for IgG. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows high seroprevalence against group A meningococci in Burkina Faso following MenAfriVac introduction. Follow-up surveys will provide evidence on the persistence of population-level immunity and the optimal vaccination strategy for long-term control of MenA meningitis in the African meningitis belt.

Higher Tetanus Toxoid Immunity 2 Years After PsA-TT Introduction in Mali.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, mass vaccination with a then-new meningococcal A polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, or MenAfriVac) was undertaken in 1- to 29-year-olds in Bamako, Mali. Whether vaccination with PsA-TT effectively boosts tetanus immunity in a population with heterogeneous baseline tetanus immunity is not known. We assessed the impact of PsA-TT on tetanus toxoid (TT) immunity by quantifying age- and sex-specific immunity prior to and 2 years after introduction. METHODS: Using a household-based, age-stratified design, we randomly selected participants for a prevaccination serological survey in 2010 and a postvaccination survey in 2012. TT immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies were quantified and geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) pre- and postvaccination among all age groups targeted for vaccination were compared. The probability of TT IgG levels ≥0.1 IU/mL (indicating short-term protection) and ≥1.0 IU/mL (indicating long-term protection) by age and sex was determined using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Analysis of 793 prevaccination and 800 postvaccination sera indicated that while GMCs were low pre-PsA-TT, significantly higher GMCs in all age-sex strata were observed 2 years after PsA-TT introduction. The percentage with short-term immunity increased from 57.1% to 88.4% (31.3-point increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.6-36.0;, P < .0001) and with long-term immunity increased from 20.0% to 58.5% (38.5-point increase; 95% CI, 33.7-43.3; P < .0001) pre- and postvaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly higher TT immunity was observed among vaccine-targeted age groups up to 2 years after Mali's PsA-TT mass vaccination campaign. Our results, combined with evidence from clinical trials, strongly suggest that conjugate vaccines containing TT such as PsA-TT should be considered bivalent vaccines because of their ability to boost tetanus immunity.

Continuing effectiveness of serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine, Chad, 2013.

In 2011, vaccination with a serogroup A meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine was implemented in 3 of 23 regions in Chad. Cases of meningitis declined dramatically in vaccinated areas, but an epidemic continued in the rest of Chad. In 2012, the remaining Chad population was vaccinated, and the epidemic was halted.

Impact of infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on serotypes in adult pneumonia.

Infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV13) was introduced to the UK in 2010. Its impact on serotypes implicated in adult non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia is not known. Beginning in 2008, a 5-year prospective cohort study of adults admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) was conducted. Pneumococcal serotype was established using a validated multiplex immunoassay (Bio-Plex; Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA, USA). The overall incidence for hospitalised CAP and pneumococcal CAP was 79.9 (95% CI 76.6-83.3) and 23.4 (95% CI 21.6-25.3) per 100,000 population, respectively. A decline in CAP (incidence rate ratio (IRR) per year 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99; p=0.016) and pneumococcal CAP (IRR per year 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.89; p<0.001) was observed over the 5-year period of the study. Between the pre- and post-PCV13 periods of the study, the incidence of CAP due to serotypes included in the PCV7 declined by 88% (IRR 0.12, 95% CI 0.08-0.20; p<0.001), and CAP due to the additional 6 serotypes in PCV13 declined by 30% (IRR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.96; p=0.024). Incidence of adult pneumococcal pneumonia declined over the last 5 years, with serotypes included in PCV13 declining post-PCV13 introduction, indicating early herd protection effects from PCV13 infant vaccination on adult non-bacteraemic disease. These effects may accrue over the coming years with implications for national pneumococcal vaccination policies in adults.

Competition, coinfection and strain replacement in models of Bordetella pertussis.

Pertussis, or whooping cough, is an important respiratory infection causing considerable infant mortality worldwide. Recently, incidence has risen in countries with strong vaccine programmes and there are concerns about antigenic shift resulting in vaccine evasion. Interactions between pertussis and non-vaccine-preventable strains will play an important role in the evolution and population dynamics of pertussis. In particular, if we are to understand the role strain replacement plays in vaccinated settings, it will be essential to understand how strains or variants of pertussis interact. Here we explore under what conditions we would expect strain replacement to be of concern in pertussis. We develop a dynamic transmission model that allows for coinfection between Bordetella pertussis (the main causative agent of pertussis) and a strain or variant unaffected by the vaccine. We incorporate both neutrality (in the sense of ecological/population genetic neutrality) and immunity into the model, leaving the specificity of the immune response flexible. We find that strain replacement may be considerable when immunity is non-specific. This is in contrast to previous findings where neutrality was not considered. We conclude that the extent to which models reflect ecological neutrality can have a large impact on conclusions regarding strain replacement. This will likely have onward consequences for estimates of vaccine efficacy and cost-effectiveness.

Estimating the impact of vaccination: lessons learned in the first phase of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.

Estimates of the global health impact of immunisation are important for quantifying historical benefits as well as planning future investments and strategy. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established in 2016 to provide reliable estimates of the health impact of immunisation. In this article we examine the consortium in its first five-year phase. We detail how vaccine impact was defined and the methods used to estimate it as well as the technical infrastructure required to underpin robust reproducibility of the outputs. We highlight some of the applications of estimates to date, how these were communicated and what their effect were. Finally, we explore some of the lessons learnt and remaining challenges for estimating the impact of vaccines and forming effective modelling consortia then discuss how this may be addressed in the second phase of VIMC. Modelled estimates are not a replacement for surveillance; however, they can examine theoretical counterfactuals and highlight data gaps to complement other activities. VIMC has implemented strategies to produce robust, standardised estimates of immunisation impact. But through the first phase of the consortium, critical lessons have been learnt both on the technical infrastructure and the effective engagement with modellers and stakeholders. To be successful, a productive dialogue with estimate consumers, producers and stakeholders needs to be underpinned by a rigorous and transparent analytical framework as well as an approach for building expertise in the short and long term.

Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The health, social and educational needs of children who have survived meningitis and septicaemia: the parents' perspective.

BACKGROUND: Survivors of bacterial meningitis and septicaemia can experience a range of after-effects. There is little published research on the needs and provision of aftercare for children surviving bacterial meningitis and septicaemia. METHODS: Mixed methods study employing a survey and follow-up interviews with a sample of survey participants recruited from Meningitis Research Foundation's member database and social media. RESULTS: Of 194 eligible survey respondents, 77% reported at least moderate short-term after-effects, and 57% a need for aftercare or support. Most parents reported that their child received a hearing test (98%) and follow-up appointment with a paediatrician (66%). Psychosocial after-effects were most common and the greatest need was for educational support. About half of participants felt their children's needs for aftercare were met. We conducted interviews with 18 parents. Findings suggest access could be limited by: parents' inability to navigate systems in place, child's age, and delayed identification of sequelae. Parents felt a comprehensive explanation of possible after-effects on discharge from hospital was required, and found uncertain prognoses difficult. Good communication between professionals enabled a service tailored to the child's needs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the NICE and SIGN guidelines and highlights areas for improvement in the aftercare of these children.

Seroprevalence and assessment of public awareness of Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii and Chlamydia abortus in small ruminants from selected smallholder commercial farms of Zimbabwe.

Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, and Chlamydia abortus have long been recognized as zoonoses and significant causes of reproductive failure in small ruminants globally. A cross-sectional study was conducted in August 2020 to determine the seroprevalences of Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii and Chlamydia abortus in 398 small ruminants from four districts of Zimbabwe (Chivi, Makoni, Zvimba, and Goromonzi) using Indirect-ELISAs. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of 103 smallholder farmers towards small ruminant abortions, Brucella spp., T. gondii and C. abortus, and to obtain a general overview of the significance of small ruminant reproductive failure(s) on their livelihoods. The overall seroprevalences were: 9.1% (95% CI: 6.4-12.3) for Brucella spp., 6.8% (95% CI: 4.5-9.7) for T. gondii and 2.0% (95% CI: 0.9-3.9) for C. abortus. Location, age, parity, and abortion history were associated with Brucella spp. seropositivity. Location was also associated with both T. gondii and C. abortus seropositivity. The questionnaire survey established that 44% of respondents had recently faced reproductive disease challenges within their flocks, with 34% correctly identifying abortion causes and only 10%, 6% and 4% having specific knowledge of Brucella spp., C. abortus and T. gondii, respectively. This study provides the first serological evidence of Brucella spp. in small ruminants since 1996 and builds the evidence on small ruminant toxoplasmosis and chlamydiosis in Zimbabwe. Evidence of these zoonoses in small ruminants and the paucity of knowledge shows the need for a coordinated One Health approach to increase public awareness of these diseases, and to establish effective surveillance and control measures. Further studies are required to establish the role these diseases play in small ruminant reproductive failure(s), to identify the Brucella spp. detected here to species/subspecies level, and to assess the socio-economic impact of reproductive failure in livestock among marginalised rural communities.

Vaccine value profile for Group B streptococcus.

Group B streptococcus (GBS) is a major global cause of neonatal meningitis, sepsis and pneumonia, with an estimated 91,000 infant deaths per year and an additional 46,000 stillbirths. GBS infection in pregnancy is also associated with adverse maternal outcomes and preterm births. As such, the World Health Organization (WHO) prioritised the development of a GBS vaccine suitable for use in pregnant women and use in LMICs, where the burden of disease is highest. Several GBS vaccines are in clinical development. The WHO Defeating Meningitis by 2030 has set a target of 2026 for vaccine licensure. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for GBS is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO regions of AFR, AMR, EUR, WPR. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the GBS VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.