Recurrent SARS-CoV-2 RNA Detection after COVID-19 Illness Onset during Pregnancy.

The Surveillance for Emerging Threats to Mothers and Babies Network conducts longitudinal surveillance of pregnant persons in the United States with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection during pregnancy. Of 6,551 infected pregnant persons in this analysis, 142 (2.2%) had positive RNA tests >90 days and up to 416 days after infection.

Zika-Associated Birth Defects Reported in Pregnancies with Laboratory Evidence of Confirmed or Possible Zika Virus Infection - U.S. Zika Pregnancy and Infant Registry, December 1, 2015-March 31, 2018.

Zika virus infection during pregnancy can cause serious birth defects of the brain and eyes, including intracranial calcifications, cerebral or cortical atrophy, chorioretinal abnormalities, and optic nerve abnormalities (1,2). The frequency of these Zika-associated brain and eye defects, based on data from the U.S. Zika Pregnancy and Infant Registry (USZPIR), has been previously reported in aggregate (3,4). This report describes the frequency of individual Zika-associated brain and eye defects among infants from pregnancies with laboratory evidence of confirmed or possible Zika virus infection. Among 6,799 live-born infants in USZPIR born during December 1, 2015-March 31, 2018, 4.6% had any Zika-associated birth defect; in a subgroup of pregnancies with a positive nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for Zika virus infection, the percentage was 6.1% of live-born infants. The brain and eye defects most frequently reported included microcephaly, corpus callosum abnormalities, intracranial calcification, abnormal cortical gyral patterns, ventriculomegaly, cerebral or cortical atrophy, chorioretinal abnormalities, and optic nerve abnormalities. Among infants with any Zika-associated birth defect, one third had more than one defect reported. Certain brain and eye defects in an infant might prompt suspicion of prenatal Zika virus infection. These findings can help target surveillance efforts to the most common brain and eye defects associated with Zika virus infection during pregnancy should a Zika virus outbreak reemerge, and might provide a signal to the reemergence of Zika virus, particularly in geographic regions without ongoing comprehensive Zika virus surveillance.

Evaluating Differences in Whole Blood, Serum, and Urine Screening Tests for Zika Virus, Puerto Rico, USA, 2016.

We evaluated nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) for Zika virus on whole-blood specimens compared with NAAT on serum and urine specimens among asymptomatic pregnant women during the 2015-2016 Puerto Rico Zika outbreak. Using NAAT, more infections were detected in serum and urine than in whole blood specimens.

Birth and Infant Outcomes Following Laboratory-Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Pregnancy - SET-NET, 16 Jurisdictions, March 29-October 14, 2020.

Pregnant women with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are at increased risk for severe illness and might be at risk for preterm birth (1-3). The full impact of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in pregnancy is unknown. Public health jurisdictions report information, including pregnancy status, on confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases to CDC through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.* Through the Surveillance for Emerging Threats to Mothers and Babies Network (SET-NET), 16 jurisdictions collected supplementary information on pregnancy and infant outcomes among 5,252 women with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported during March 29-October 14, 2020. Among 3,912 live births with known gestational age, 12.9% were preterm (<37 weeks), higher than the reported 10.2% among the general U.S. population in 2019 (4). Among 610 infants (21.3%) with reported SARS-CoV-2 test results, perinatal infection was infrequent (2.6%) and occurred primarily among infants whose mother had SARS-CoV-2 infection identified within 1 week of delivery. Because the majority of pregnant women with COVID-19 reported thus far experienced infection in the third trimester, ongoing surveillance is needed to assess effects of infections in early pregnancy, as well the longer-term outcomes of exposed infants. These findings can inform neonatal testing recommendations, clinical practice, and public health action and can be used by health care providers to counsel pregnant women on the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including preterm births. Pregnant women and their household members should follow recommended infection prevention measures, including wearing a mask, social distancing, and frequent handwashing when going out or interacting with others or if there is a person within the household who has had exposure to COVID-19.†.

Population-Based Surveillance for Birth Defects Potentially Related to Zika Virus Infection - 22 States and Territories, January 2016-June 2017.

Zika virus infection during pregnancy can cause congenital brain and eye abnormalities and is associated with neurodevelopmental abnormalities (1-3). In areas of the United States that experienced local Zika virus transmission, the prevalence of birth defects potentially related to Zika virus infection during pregnancy increased in the second half of 2016 compared with the first half (4). To update the previous report, CDC analyzed population-based surveillance data from 22 states and territories to estimate the prevalence of birth defects potentially related to Zika virus infection, regardless of laboratory evidence of or exposure to Zika virus, among pregnancies completed during January 1, 2016-June 30, 2017. Jurisdictions were categorized as those 1) with widespread local transmission of Zika virus; 2) with limited local transmission of Zika virus; and 3) without local transmission of Zika virus. Among 2,004,630 live births, 3,359 infants and fetuses with birth defects potentially related to Zika virus infection during pregnancy were identified (1.7 per 1,000 live births, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-1.7). In areas with widespread local Zika virus transmission, the prevalence of birth defects potentially related to Zika virus infection during pregnancy was significantly higher during the quarters comprising July 2016-March 2017 (July-September 2016 = 3.0; October-December 2016 = 4.0; and January-March 2017 = 5.6 per 1,000 live births) compared with the reference period (January-March 2016) (1.3 per 1,000). These findings suggest a fourfold increase (prevalence ratio [PR] = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1-8.4) in birth defects potentially related to Zika virus in widespread local transmission areas during January-March 2017 compared with that during January-March 2016, with the highest prevalence (7.0 per 1,000 live births) in February 2017. Population-based birth defects surveillance is critical for identifying infants and fetuses with birth defects potentially related to Zika virus regardless of whether Zika virus testing was conducted, especially given the high prevalence of asymptomatic disease. These data can be used to inform follow-up care and services as well as strengthen surveillance.

Vital Signs: Zika-Associated Birth Defects and Neurodevelopmental Abnormalities Possibly Associated with Congenital Zika Virus Infection - U.S. Territories and Freely Associated States, 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Zika virus infection during pregnancy causes serious birth defects and might be associated with neurodevelopmental abnormalities in children. Early identification of and intervention for neurodevelopmental problems can improve cognitive, social, and behavioral functioning. METHODS: Pregnancies with laboratory evidence of confirmed or possible Zika virus infection and infants resulting from these pregnancies are included in the U.S. Zika Pregnancy and Infant Registry (USZPIR) and followed through active surveillance methods. This report includes data on children aged ≥1 year born in U.S. territories and freely associated states. Receipt of reported follow-up care was assessed, and data were reviewed to identify Zika-associated birth defects and neurodevelopmental abnormalities possibly associated with congenital Zika virus infection. RESULTS: Among 1,450 children of mothers with laboratory evidence of confirmed or possible Zika virus infection during pregnancy and with reported follow-up care, 76% had developmental screening or evaluation, 60% had postnatal neuroimaging, 48% had automated auditory brainstem response-based hearing screen or evaluation, and 36% had an ophthalmologic evaluation. Among evaluated children, 6% had at least one Zika-associated birth defect identified, 9% had at least one neurodevelopmental abnormality possibly associated with congenital Zika virus infection identified, and 1% had both. CONCLUSION: One in seven evaluated children had a Zika-associated birth defect, a neurodevelopmental abnormality possibly associated with congenital Zika virus infection, or both reported to the USZPIR. Given that most children did not have evidence of all recommended evaluations, additional anomalies might not have been identified. Careful monitoring and evaluation of children born to mothers with evidence of Zika virus infection during pregnancy is essential for ensuring early detection of possible disabilities and early referral to intervention services.

Cost-effectiveness of Increasing Access to Contraception during the Zika Virus Outbreak, Puerto Rico, 2016.

We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of increasing access to contraception in Puerto Rico during a Zika virus outbreak. The intervention is projected to cost an additional $33.5 million in family planning services and is likely to be cost-saving for the healthcare system overall. It could reduce Zika virus-related costs by $65.2 million ($2.8 million from less Zika virus testing and monitoring and $62.3 million from avoided costs of Zika virus-associated microcephaly [ZAM]). The estimates are influenced by the contraception methods used, the frequency of ZAM, and the lifetime incremental cost of ZAM. Accounting for unwanted pregnancies that are prevented, irrespective of Zika virus infection, an additional $40.4 million in medical costs would be avoided through the intervention. Increasing contraceptive access for women who want to delay or avoid pregnancy in Puerto Rico during a Zika virus outbreak can substantially reduce the number of cases of ZAM and healthcare costs.

Local Transmission of Zika Virus--Puerto Rico, November 23, 2015-January 28, 2016.

Zika virus, a mosquito-borne flavivirus, spread to the Region of the Americas (Americas) in mid-2015, and appears to be related to congenital microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (1,2). On February 1, 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the occurrence of microcephaly cases in association with Zika virus infection to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.* On December 31, 2015, Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) reported the first locally acquired (index) case of Zika virus disease in a jurisdiction of the United States in a patient from southeastern Puerto Rico. During November 23, 2015-January 28, 2016, passive and enhanced surveillance for Zika virus disease identified 30 laboratory-confirmed cases. Most (93%) patients resided in eastern Puerto Rico or the San Juan metropolitan area. The most frequently reported signs and symptoms were rash (77%), myalgia (77%), arthralgia (73%), and fever (73%). Three (10%) patients were hospitalized. One case occurred in a patient hospitalized for Guillain-Barré syndrome, and one occurred in a pregnant woman. Because the most common mosquito vector of Zika virus, Aedes aegypti, is present throughout Puerto Rico, Zika virus is expected to continue to spread across the island. The public health response in Puerto Rico is being coordinated by PRDH with assistance from CDC. Clinicians in Puerto Rico should report all cases of microcephaly, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and suspected Zika virus disease to PRDH. Other adverse reproductive outcomes, including fetal demise associated with Zika virus infection, should be reported to PRDH. To avoid infection with Zika virus, residents of and visitors to Puerto Rico, particularly pregnant women, should strictly follow steps to avoid mosquito bites, including wearing pants and long-sleeved shirts, using permethrin-treated clothing and gear, using an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-registered insect repellent, and ensuring that windows and doors have intact screens.

Possible Zika Virus Infection Among Pregnant Women - United States and Territories, May 2016.

Zika virus is a cause of microcephaly and brain abnormalities (1), and it is the first known mosquito-borne infection to cause congenital anomalies in humans. The establishment of a comprehensive surveillance system to monitor pregnant women with Zika virus infection will provide data to further elucidate the full range of potential outcomes for fetuses and infants of mothers with asymptomatic and symptomatic Zika virus infection during pregnancy. In February 2016, Zika virus disease and congenital Zika virus infections became nationally notifiable conditions in the United States (2). Cases in pregnant women with laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection who have either 1) symptomatic infection or 2) asymptomatic infection with diagnosed complications of pregnancy can be reported as cases of Zika virus disease to ArboNET* (2), CDC's national arboviral diseases surveillance system. Under existing interim guidelines from the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE), asymptomatic Zika virus infections in pregnant women who do not have known pregnancy complications are not reportable. ArboNET does not currently include pregnancy surveillance information (e.g., gestational age or pregnancy exposures) or pregnancy outcomes. To understand the full impact of infection on the fetus and neonate, other systems are needed for reporting and active monitoring of pregnant women with laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus infection during pregnancy. Thus, in collaboration with state, local, tribal, and territorial health departments, CDC established two surveillance systems to monitor pregnancies and congenital outcomes among women with laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection(†) in the United States and territories: 1) the U.S. Zika Pregnancy Registry (USZPR),(§) which monitors pregnant women residing in U.S. states and all U.S. territories except Puerto Rico, and 2) the Zika Active Pregnancy Surveillance System (ZAPSS), which monitors pregnant women residing in Puerto Rico. As of May 12, 2016, the surveillance systems were monitoring 157 and 122 pregnant women with laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus infection from participating U.S. states and territories, respectively. Tracking and monitoring clinical presentation of Zika virus infection, all prenatal testing, and adverse consequences of Zika virus infection during pregnancy are critical to better characterize the risk for congenital infection, the performance of prenatal diagnostic testing, and the spectrum of adverse congenital outcomes. These data will improve clinical guidance, inform counseling messages for pregnant women, and facilitate planning for clinical and public health services for affected families.

Update: Ongoing Zika Virus Transmission - Puerto Rico, November 1, 2015-April 14, 2016.

Zika virus is a flavivirus transmitted primarily by Aedes species mosquitoes, and symptoms of infection can include rash, fever, arthralgia, and conjunctivitis (1).* Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of microcephaly and other severe brain defects (2). Infection has also been associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome (3). In December 2015, Puerto Rico became the first U.S. jurisdiction to report local transmission of Zika virus, with the index patient reporting symptom onset on November 23, 2015 (4). This report provides an update to the epidemiology of and public health response to ongoing Zika virus transmission in Puerto Rico. During November 1, 2015-April 14, 2016, a total of 6,157 specimens from suspected Zika virus-infected patients were evaluated by the Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) and CDC Dengue Branch (which is located in San Juan, Puerto Rico), and 683 (11%) had laboratory evidence of current or recent Zika virus infection by one or more tests: reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or immunoglobulin M (IgM) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Zika virus-infected patients resided in 50 (64%) of 78 municipalities in Puerto Rico. Median age was 34 years (range = 35 days-89 years). The most frequently reported signs and symptoms were rash (74%), myalgia (68%), headache (63%), fever (63%), and arthralgia (63%). There were 65 (10%) symptomatic pregnant women who tested positive by RT-PCR or IgM ELISA. A total of 17 (2%) patients required hospitalization, including 5 (1%) patients with suspected Guillain-Barré syndrome. One (<1%) patient died after developing severe thrombocytopenia. The public health response to the outbreak has included increased laboratory capacity to test for Zika virus infection (including blood donor screening), implementation of enhanced surveillance systems, and prevention activities focused on pregnant women. Vector control activities include indoor and outdoor residual spraying and reduction of mosquito breeding environments focused around pregnant women's homes. Residents of and travelers to Puerto Rico should continue to employ mosquito bite avoidance behaviors, take precautions to reduce the risk for sexual transmission (5), and seek medical care for any acute illness with rash or fever.

Update: Ongoing Zika Virus Transmission - Puerto Rico, November 1, 2015-July 7, 2016.

Zika virus is a flavivirus transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, and infection can be asymptomatic or result in an acute febrile illness with rash (1). Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of microcephaly and other severe birth defects (2). Infection has also been associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) (3) and severe thrombocytopenia (4,5). In December 2015, the Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) reported the first locally acquired case of Zika virus infection. This report provides an update to the epidemiology of and public health response to ongoing Zika virus transmission in Puerto Rico (6,7). A confirmed case of Zika virus infection is defined as a positive result for Zika virus testing by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for Zika virus in a blood or urine specimen. A presumptive case is defined as a positive result by Zika virus immunoglobulin M (IgM) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (MAC-ELISA)* and a negative result by dengue virus IgM ELISA, or a positive test result by Zika IgM MAC-ELISA in a pregnant woman. An unspecified flavivirus case is defined as positive or equivocal results for both Zika and dengue virus by IgM ELISA. During November 1, 2015-July 7, 2016, a total of 23,487 persons were evaluated by PRDH and CDC Dengue Branch for Zika virus infection, including asymptomatic pregnant women and persons with signs or symptoms consistent with Zika virus disease or suspected GBS; 5,582 (24%) confirmed and presumptive Zika virus cases were identified. Persons with Zika virus infection were residents of 77 (99%) of Puerto Rico's 78 municipalities. During 2016, the percentage of positive Zika virus infection cases among symptomatic males and nonpregnant females who were tested increased from 14% in February to 64% in June. Among 9,343 pregnant women tested, 672 had confirmed or presumptive Zika virus infection, including 441 (66%) symptomatic women and 231 (34%) asymptomatic women. One patient died after developing severe thrombocytopenia (4). Evidence of Zika virus infection or recent unspecified flavivirus infection was detected in 21 patients with confirmed GBS. The widespread outbreak and accelerating increase in the number of cases in Puerto Rico warrants intensified vector control and personal protective behaviors to prevent new infections, particularly among pregnant women.

Prevalence of individual brain and eye defects potentially related to Zika virus in pregnancy in 22 U.S. states and territories, January 2016 to June 2017.

During the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Zika Virus Response, birth defects surveillance programs adapted to monitor birth defects potentially related to Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy. Pregnancy outcomes occurring during January 2016 to June 2017 in 22 U.S. states and territories were used to estimate the prevalence of those brain and eye defects potentially related to ZIKV. Jurisdictions were divided into three groups: areas with widespread ZIKV transmission, areas with limited local ZIKV transmission, and areas without local ZIKV transmission. Prevalence estimates for selected brain and eye defects and microcephaly per 10,000 live births were estimated. Prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression for areas with widespread and limited ZIKV transmission compared with areas without local ZIKV transmission. Defects with significantly higher prevalence in areas of widespread transmission were pooled, and PRs were calculated by quarter, comparing subsequent quarters to the first quarter (January-March 2016). Nine defects had significantly higher prevalence in areas of widespread transmission. The highest PRs were seen in intracranial calcifications (PR = 12.6, 95% CI [7.4, 21.3]), chorioretinal abnormalities (12.5 [7.1, 22.3]), brainstem abnormalities (9.3 [4.7, 18.4]), and cerebral/cortical atrophy (6.7 [4.2, 10.8]). The PR of the nine pooled defects was significantly higher in three quarters in areas with widespread transmission. The largest difference in prevalence was observed for defects consistently reported in infants with congenital ZIKV infection. Birth defects surveillance programs could consider monitoring a subset of birth defects potentially related to ZIKV in pregnancy.

Identifying possible inaccuracy in reported birth head circumference measurements among infants in the US Zika Pregnancy and Infant Registry.

BACKGROUND: The US Zika Pregnancy and Infant Registry (USZPIR) monitors infants born to mothers with confirmed or possible Zika virus infection during pregnancy. The surveillance case definition for Zika-associated birth defects includes microcephaly based on head circumference (HC). METHODS: We assessed birth and follow-up data from infants with birth HC measurements <3rd percentile and birthweight ≥10th percentile to determine possible misclassification of microcephaly. We developed a schema informed by literature review and expert opinion to identify possible HC measurement inaccuracy using HC growth velocity and longitudinal HC measurements between 2 and 12 months of age. Two or more HC measurements were required for assessment. Inaccuracy in birth HC measurement was suspected if growth velocity was >3 cm/month in the first 3 months or HC was consistently >25th percentile during follow-up. RESULTS: Of 6,799 liveborn infants in USZPIR, 351 (5.2%) had Zika-associated birth defects, of which 111 had birth HC measurements <3rd percentile and birthweight ≥10th percentile. Of 84/111 infants with sufficient follow-up, 38/84 (45%) were classified as having possible inaccuracy of birth HC measurement, 19/84 (23%) had HC ≥3rd percentile on follow-up without meeting criteria for possible inaccuracy, and 27/84 (32%) had continued HC <3rd percentile. After excluding possible inaccuracies, the proportion of infants with Zika-associated birth defects including microcephaly decreased from 5.2% to 4.6%. CONCLUSIONS: About one-third of infants in USZPIR with Zika-associated birth defects had only microcephaly, but indications of possible measurement inaccuracy were common. Implementation of this schema in longitudinal studies can reduce misclassification of microcephaly.

Estimating and Characterizing COVID-19 Deaths, Puerto Rico, March-July 2020.

OBJECTIVES: Using the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) classification guidelines, we characterized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated confirmed and probable deaths in Puerto Rico during March-July 2020. We also estimated the total number of possible deaths due to COVID-19 in Puerto Rico during the same period. METHODS: We described data on COVID-19-associated mortality, in which the lower bound was the sum of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths and the upper bound was excess mortality, estimated as the difference between observed deaths and average expected deaths. We obtained data from the Puerto Rico Department of Health COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance System, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Electronic Disease Surveillance System Base System, and the National Center for Health Statistics. RESULTS: During March-July 2020, 225 COVID-19-associated deaths were identified in Puerto Rico (119 confirmed deaths and 106 probable deaths). The median age of decedents was 73 (interquartile range, 59-83); 60 (26.7%) deaths occurred in the Metropolitana region, and 140 (62.2%) deaths occurred among men. Of the 225 decedents, 180 (83.6%) had been hospitalized and 93 (41.3%) had required mechanical ventilation. Influenza and pneumonia (48.0%), sepsis (28.9%), and respiratory failure (27.1%) were the most common conditions contributing to COVID-19 deaths based on death certificates. Based on excess mortality calculations, as many as 638 COVID-19-associated deaths could have occurred during the study period, up to 413 more COVID-19-associated deaths than originally reported. CONCLUSIONS: Including probable deaths per the CSTE guidelines and monitoring all-cause excess mortality can lead to a better estimation of COVID-19-associated deaths and serve as a model to enhance mortality surveillance in other US jurisdictions.

Clinical phenotype in infants with negative Zika virus immunoglobulin M testing born to mothers with confirmed Zika virus infection during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Recommended testing for both infants with Zika-associated birth defects (i.e., microcephaly and selected brain or eye anomalies) and infants without birth defects whose mothers had laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy includes nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) testing within days after birth. Brain and eye defects highly specific for congenital ZIKV infection have been described; sporadic reports have documented negative ZIKV testing in such infants. METHODS: Infants from the U.S. Zika Pregnancy and Infant Registry and Zika Birth Defects Surveillance with Zika-associated birth defects and maternal and infant laboratory testing for ZIKV and two congenital infections (i.e., cytomegalovirus [CMV] and toxoplasmosis) were reviewed for phenotype and laboratory results. Infants with at least one defect considered highly specific for congenital ZIKV infection were designated as having congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) clinical phenotype for this study. RESULTS: Of 325 liveborn infants with Zika-associated birth defects and laboratory evidence of maternal ZIKV infection, 33 (10%) had CZS clinical phenotype; 172 (53%) had ZIKV IgM testing with negative or no ZIKV NAAT. ZIKV IgM was negative in the remaining 121 infants, and for 90%, testing for CMV and toxoplasmosis was missing/incomplete. Among 11 infants testing negative for ZIKV IgM, CMV, and toxoplasmosis, 2 infants had CZS clinical phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: These data add support to previous reports of negative ZIKV IgM testing in infants with clear maternal and phenotypic evidence of congenital ZIKV infection. Follow-up care consistent with the diagnosis is recommended regardless of infant ZIKV test results.

Estimating the Number of Pregnant Women Infected With Zika Virus and Expected Infants With Microcephaly Following the Zika Virus Outbreak in Puerto Rico, 2016.

IMPORTANCE: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy is a cause of congenital microcephaly and severe fetal brain defects, and it has been associated with other adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of pregnant women infected with ZIKV in Puerto Rico and the number of associated congenital microcephaly cases. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a modeling study from April to July 2016. Using parameters derived from published reports, outcomes were modeled probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation. We used uncertainty distributions to reflect the limited information available for parameter values. Given the high level of uncertainty in model parameters, interquartile ranges (IQRs) are presented as primary results. Outcomes were modeled for pregnant women in Puerto Rico, which currently has more confirmed ZIKV cases than any other US location. EXPOSURE: Zika virus infection in pregnant women. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Number of pregnant women infected with ZIKV and number of congenital microcephaly cases. RESULTS: We estimated an IQR of 5900 to 10 300 pregnant women (median, 7800) might be infected during the initial ZIKV outbreak in Puerto Rico. Of these, an IQR of 100 to 270 infants (median, 180) may be born with microcephaly due to congenital ZIKV infection from mid-2016 to mid-2017. In the absence of a ZIKV outbreak, an IQR of 9 to 16 cases (median, 12) of congenital microcephaly are expected in Puerto Rico per year. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The estimate of 5900 to 10 300 pregnant women that might be infected with ZIKV provides an estimate for the number of infants that could potentially have ZIKV-associated adverse outcomes. Including baseline cases of microcephaly, we estimated that an IQR of 110 to 290 total cases of congenital microcephaly, mostly attributable to ZIKV infection, could occur from mid-2016 to mid-2017 in the absence of effective interventions. The primary limitation in this analysis is uncertainty in model parameters. Multivariate sensitivity analyses indicated that the cumulative incidence of ZIKV infection and risk of microcephaly given maternal infection in the first trimester were the primary drivers of both magnitude and uncertainty in the estimated number of microcephaly cases. Increased information on these parameters would lead to more precise estimates. Nonetheless, the results underscore the need for urgent actions being undertaken in Puerto Rico to prevent congenital ZIKV infection and prepare for affected infants.