When the smoke gets in your lungs: short-term effects of Indonesia's 2015 forest fires on health care use.

BACKGROUND: The forest fires that ravaged parts of Indonesia in 2015 were the most severely polluting of this century but little is known about their effects on health care utilization of the affected population. We estimate their short-term impact on visit rates to primary and hospital care with particular focus on visits for specific smoke-related conditions (respiratory disease, acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) and common cold). METHOD: We estimate the short-term impact of the 2015 forest fire on visit rates to primary and hospital care by combining satellite data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with administrative records from Indonesian National Health Insurance Agency (BPJS Kesehatan) from January 2015-April  2016. The 16 months of panel data cover 203 districts in the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan before, during and after the forest fires. We use the (more efficient) ANCOVA version adaptation of a fixed effects model to compare the trends in healthcare use of affected districts (with AOD value above 0.75) with control districts (AOD value below 0.75). Considering the higher vulnerability of children's lungs, we do this separately for children under 5 and the rest of the population adults (> 5), and for both urban and rural areas, and for both the period during and after the forest fires. RESULTS: We find little effects for adults. For young children we estimate positive effects for care related to respiratory problems in primary health care facilities in urban areas. Hospital care visits in general, on the other hand, are negatively affected in rural areas. We argue that these patterns arise because accessibility of care during fires is more restricted for rural than for urban areas. CONCLUSION: The severity of the fires and the absence of positive impact on health care utilization for adults and children in rural areas indicate large missed opportunities for receiving necessary care. This is particularly worrisome for children, whose lungs are most vulnerable to the effects. Our findings underscore the need to ensure ongoing access to medical services during forest fires and emphasize the necessity of catching up with essential care for children after the fires, particularly in rural areas.

Inequality in mortality between Black and White Americans by age, place, and cause and in comparison to Europe, 1990 to 2018.

Although there is a large gap between Black and White American life expectancies, the gap fell 48.9% between 1990 and 2018, mainly due to mortality declines among Black Americans. We examine age-specific mortality trends and racial gaps in life expectancy in high- and low-income US areas and with reference to six European countries. Inequalities in life expectancy are starker in the United States than in Europe. In 1990, White Americans and Europeans in high-income areas had similar overall life expectancy, while life expectancy for White Americans in low-income areas was lower. However, since then, even high-income White Americans have lost ground relative to Europeans. Meanwhile, the gap in life expectancy between Black Americans and Europeans decreased by 8.3%. Black American life expectancy increased more than White American life expectancy in all US areas, but improvements in lower-income areas had the greatest impact on the racial life expectancy gap. The causes that contributed the most to Black Americans' mortality reductions included cancer, homicide, HIV, and causes originating in the fetal or infant period. Life expectancy for both Black and White Americans plateaued or slightly declined after 2012, but this stalling was most evident among Black Americans even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. If improvements had continued at the 1990 to 2012 rate, the racial gap in life expectancy would have closed by 2036. European life expectancy also stalled after 2014. Still, the comparison with Europe suggests that mortality rates of both Black and White Americans could fall much further across all ages and in both high-income and low-income areas.

Health Care Use and Out-of-pocket Spending by Persons With Dementia Differ Between Europe and the United States.

BACKGROUND: Persons with dementia need much care, but what care is used and how the burden of financing is divided between persons with dementia, caregivers, and public programs may differ between countries. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare how health care use and out-of-pocket (OOP) spending associated with dementia differ between the United States and Europe, with and without controlling for background characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN: We use prospectively collected survey data from the United States-based Health and Retirement Study (n=48,877) and the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (n=98,971) including all adults over the age of 70 years. Dementia status is imputed using a validated algorithm. After first reporting the observed differences in care use, we analyze how care use is associated with dementia using multivariate regressions, controlling for other health conditions and background characteristics. RESULTS: Persons with dementia in the United States use 50% less formal home care per year than persons living with dementia in Europe [mean (SD)=236.8 h (1047.4) vs. 463.3 h (1371.2)], but use more nursing home care [75.1 d (131.4) vs. 45.5 d (119.4)). Dementia is associated with higher OOP spending in the United States than Europe [4406 USD (95% confidence interval, 3914-4899) vs. 246 USD (73-418)-2017 price levels]. CONCLUSIONS: Health care use and OOP spending differ between Europe and the United States. The far greater reliance on nursing home care in the United States likely causes much higher expenditures for people with dementia and insurance programs alike.

The relative importance and stability of disease burden causes over time: summarizing regional trends on disease burden for 290 causes over 28 years.

BACKGROUND: Since the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) has become more comprehensive, data for hundreds of causes of disease burden, measured using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), have become increasingly available for almost every part of the world. However, undergoing any systematic comparative analysis of the trends can be challenging given the quantity of data that must be presented. METHODS: We use the GBD data to describe trends in cause-specific DALY rates for eight regions. We quantify the extent to which the importance of 'major' DALY causes changes relative to 'minor' DALY causes over time by decomposing changes in the Gini coefficient into 'proportionality' and 'reranking' indices. RESULTS: The fall in regional DALY rates since 1990 has been accompanied by generally positive proportionality indices and reranking indices of negligible magnitude. However, the rate at which DALY rates have been falling has slowed and, at the same time, proportionality indices have tended towards zero. These findings are clearest where the focus is exclusively upon non-communicable diseases. Notably, large and positive proportionality indices are recorded for sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade. CONCLUSION: The positive proportionality indices show that disease burden has become less concentrated around the leading causes over time, and this trend has become less prominent as the DALY rate decline has slowed. The recent decline in disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionally driven by improvements in DALY rates for HIV/AIDS, as well as for malaria, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory infections.

Death by austerity? The impact of cost containment on avoidable mortality in Italy.

Does austerity in health care affect health and healthcare outcomes? We examine the intended and unintended effects of the Italian austerity policy Piano di Rientro aimed at containing the cost of the healthcare sector. Using an instrumental variable strategy that exploits the temporal and geographical variation induced by the policy rollout, we find that the policy was successful in alleviating deficits by reducing expenditure, mainly in the southern regions, but also resulted in a 3% rise in avoidable deaths among both men and women, a reduction in hospital capacity and a rise in south-to-north patient migration. These findings suggest that-even in a high-income country with relatively low avoidable mortality like Italy-spending cuts can hurt survival.

Eligibility or use? Disentangling the sources of horizontal inequity in home care receipt in the Netherlands.

We study horizontal inequity in home care use in the Netherlands, where a social insurance scheme aims to allocate long-term care according to care needs. Whether the system reaches its goal depends not only on whether eligible individuals have equal access to care but also on whether entitlements for care reflect needs, irrespective of socioeconomic status and other characteristics. We assess and decompose total inequity into inequity in (i) entitlements for home care and (ii) the conversion of these entitlements into actual use. This distinction is original and important, because inequity calls for different policy responses depending on the stage at which it arises. Linking survey and administrative data on the 65 and older, we find higher income elderly to receive less home care than poorer elderly with similar needs. Although lower income elderly tend to make greater use of their entitlements, need-standardized entitlements are similar across income, education, and wealth levels. However, both use and entitlements vary by origin and place of residence. The Dutch need assessment seems effective at restricting socioeconomic inequity in home care use but may not fully prevent inequity along other dimensions. Low financial barriers and universal eligibility rules may help achieve equity in access but are not sufficient conditions.

Equal long-term care for equal needs with universal and comprehensive coverage? An assessment using Dutch administrative data.

The Netherlands is one of the few countries that offer generous universal public coverage of long-term care (LTC). Does this ensure that the Dutch elderly with similar care needs receive similar LTC, irrespective of their income? In contrast with previous studies of inequity in care use that relied on a statistically derived variable of needs, our paper exploits a readily available, administrative measure of LTC needs stemming from the eligibility assessment organized by the Dutch LTC assessment agency. Using exhaustive administrative register data on 616,934 individuals aged 60 and older eligible for public LTC, we find a substantial pro-poor concentration of LTC use that is only partially explained by poorer individuals' greater needs. Among those eligible for institutional care, higher-income individuals are more likely to use-less costly-home care. This pattern may be explained by differences in preferences, but also by their higher copayments for nursing homes and by greater feasibility of home-based LTC arrangements for richer elderly. At face value, our findings suggest that the Dutch LTC insurance "overshoots" its target to ensure that LTC is accessible to poorer elderly. Yet, the implications depend on the origins of the difference and one's normative stance.

Can a results-based bottom-up reform improve health system performance? Evidence from the rural health project in China.

In 2008, the Rural Health Project (Health XI) was initiated in 40 Chinese counties to pilot interventions aimed at improving local health systems. Performance targets were pre-specified (results-based), and project counties were allowed to tailor their interventions (bottom-up) in recognition of the substantial regional variations. Using household data from the China National Health Services Survey in a difference-in-differences strategy combined with matching, we find that project counties have improved outcomes (both incentivized and not-directly-incentivized) in all three domains examined-medical care, public health services, and self-rated health-by 2013. In particular, the decrease in outpatient intravenous drip use and financial strain and the increase in all four components of public health services provision are robust to a variety of tests and alternative matching strategies. Results for not-directly-incentivized indicators suggest that results-based payment did not lead to multitasking problems but rather to positive spillovers. On the other hand, little improvement in inpatient-related indicators suggests that the Health XI interventions did not successfully redress the perverse incentives driving the bulk of providers' income. In general, however, our results indicate that interventions adopted in the results-based bottom-up approach generated substantial benefits given the investment.

A cost-effectiveness threshold based on the marginal returns of cardiovascular hospital spending.

Traditionally, threshold levels of cost-effectiveness have been derived from willingness-to-pay studies, indicating the consumption value of health (v-thresholds). However, it has been argued that v-thresholds need to be supplemented by so-called k-thresholds, which are based on the marginal returns to health care. The objective of this research is to estimate a k-threshold based on the marginal returns to cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospital care in the Netherlands. To estimate a k-threshold for hospital care on CVD, we proceed in two steps: First, we estimate the impact of hospital spending on mortality using a Bayesian regression modelling framework, using data on CVD mortality and CVD hospital spending by age and gender for the period 1994-2010. Second, we use life tables in combination with quality of life data to convert these estimates into a k-threshold expressed in euros per quality-adjusted life year gained. Our base case estimate resulted in an estimate of 41,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. In our sensitivity analyses, we illustrated how the incorporation of prior evidence into the estimation pushes estimates downwards. We conclude that our base case estimate of the k-threshold may serve as a benchmark value for decision making in the Netherlands as well as for future research regarding k-thresholds.

Poor Health Reporting? Using Anchoring Vignettes to Uncover Health Disparities by Wealth and Race.

In spite of the wide disparities in wealth and in objective health measures like mortality, observed inequality by wealth in self-reported health appears to be nearly nonexistent in low- to middle-income settings. To determine the extent to which this is driven by reporting tendencies, we use anchoring vignettes to test and correct for reporting heterogeneity in health among elderly South Africans. Significant reporting differences across wealth groups are detected. Poorer individuals rate the same health state description more positively than richer individuals. Only after we correct for these differences does a significant and substantial health disadvantage of the poor emerge. We also find that health inequality and reporting heterogeneity are confounded by race. Within race groups-especially among black Africans and to a lesser degree among whites-heterogeneous reporting leads to an underestimation of health inequalities between richest and poorest. More surprisingly, we also show that the correction may go in the opposite direction: the apparent black African (vs. white) health disadvantage within the top wealth quintile almost disappears after we correct for reporting tendencies. Such large shifts and even reversals of health gradients have not been documented in previous studies on reporting bias in health inequalities. The evidence for South Africa, with its history of racial segregation and socioeconomic inequality, highlights that correction for reporting matters greatly when using self-reported health measures in countries with such wide disparities.

Health Disparities by Income in Spain Before and After the Economic Crisis.

Little is known about how health disparities by income change during times of economic crisis. We apply a decomposition method to unravel the contributions of income growth, income inequality and differential income mobility across socio-demographic groups to changes in health disparities by income in Spain using longitudinal data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004-2012. We find a modest rise in health inequality by income in Spain in the 5 years of economic growth prior to the start of the crisis in 2008, but a sharp fall after 2008. The drop mainly derives from the fact that loss of employment and earnings has disproportionately affected the incomes of the younger and healthier groups rather than the (mainly stable pension) incomes of the groups over 65 years. This suggests that unequal distribution of income protection by age may reduce health inequality in the short run after an economic recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Explaining declining rates of institutional LTC use in the Netherlands: a decomposition approach.

The use of long-term care (LTC) is changing rapidly. In the Netherlands, rates of institutional LTC use are falling, whereas homecare use is growing. Are these changes attributable to declining disability rates, or has LTC use given disability changed? And have institutionalization rates fallen regardless of disability level, or has LTC use become better tailored to needs? We answer these questions by explaining trends in LTC use for the Dutch 65+ population in the period 2000-2008 using a nonlinear variant of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. We find that changes in LTC use are not due to shifts in the disability distribution but can almost entirely be traced back to changes in the way the system treats disability. Elderly with mild disability are more likely to be treated at home than before, whereas severely disabled individuals continue to receive institutional LTC. As a result, LTC use has become better tailored to the needs for such care. This finding suggests that policies that promote LTC in the community rather than in institutions can effectively mitigate the consequences of population aging on LTC spending.

Going formal or informal, who cares? The influence of public long-term care insurance.

International differences in long-term care (LTC) use are well documented, but not well understood. Using comparable data from two countries with universal public LTC insurance, the Netherlands and Germany, we examine how institutional differences relate to differences in the choice for informal and formal LTC. Although the overall LTC utilization rate is similar in both countries, use of formal care is more prevalent in the Netherlands and informal care use in Germany. Decomposition of the between-country differences in formal and informal LTC use reveals that these differences are not chiefly the result of differences in population characteristics but mainly derive from differences in the effects of these characteristics that are associated with between-country institutional differences. These findings demonstrate that system features such as eligibility rules and coverage generosity and, indirectly, social preferences can influence the choice between formal and informal care. Less comprehensive coverage also has equity implications: for the poor, access to formal LTC is more difficult in Germany than in the Netherlands.

Can vouchers deliver? An evaluation of subsidies for maternal health care in Cambodia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of vouchers for maternity care in public health-care facilities on the utilization of maternal health-care services in Cambodia. METHODS: The study involved data from the 2010 Cambodian Demographic and Health Survey, which covered births between 2005 and 2010. The effect of voucher schemes, first implemented in 2007, on the utilization of maternal health-care services was quantified using a difference-in-differences method that compared changes in utilization in districts with voucher schemes with changes in districts without them. FINDINGS: Overall, voucher schemes were associated with an increase of 10.1 percentage points (pp) in the probability of delivery in a public health-care facility; among women from the poorest 40% of households, the increase was 15.6 pp. Vouchers were responsible for about one fifth of the increase observed in institutional deliveries in districts with schemes. Universal voucher schemes had a larger effect on the probability of delivery in a public facility than schemes targeting the poorest women. Both types of schemes increased the probability of receiving postnatal care, but the increase was significant only for non-poor women. Universal, but not targeted, voucher schemes significantly increased the probability of receiving antenatal care. CONCLUSION: Voucher schemes increased deliveries in health centres and, to a lesser extent, improved antenatal and postnatal care. However, schemes that targeted poorer women did not appear to be efficient since these women were more likely than less poor women to be encouraged to give birth in a public health-care facility, even with universal voucher schemes.

Effects of NCMS on access to care and financial protection in China.

The introduction of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in rural China has been the most rapid and dramatic extension of health insurance coverage in the developing world in this millennium. The literature to date has mainly used the uneven rollout of NCMS across counties as a way of identifying its effects on access to care and financial protection. This study exploits the cross-county variation in NCMS generosity in 2006 and 2008 in the Ningxia and Shandong provinces to estimate the effect of coverage generosity on utilization and financial protection. Our results confirm earlier findings of NCMS being effective in increasing access to care but not in increasing financial protection. In addition, we find NCMS enrollees to be sensitive to the price incentives set in the NCMS design when choosing their provider and providers to respond by increasing prices and/or providing more expensive care.

Has COVID-19 increased inequality in mortality by income in the Netherlands?

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands in 2020, COVID-19 deaths were more concentrated among individuals with a lower income. At the same time, COVID-19 was a new cause that also displaced some deaths from other causes, potentially reducing income-related inequality in non-COVID deaths. Our aim is to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the income-related inequality in total mortality and decompose this into the inequality in COVID-attributed deaths and changes in the inequality in non-COVID causes. METHODS: We estimate excess deaths (observed minus trend-predicted deaths) by sex, age and income group for the Netherlands in 2020. Using a measure of income-related inequality (the concentration index), we decompose the inequality in total excess mortality into COVID-19 versus non-COVID causes. RESULTS: Cause-attributed COVID-19 mortality exceeded total excess mortality by 12% for the 65-79 age group and by about 35% for 80+ in the Netherlands in 2020, implying a decrease in the number of non-COVID deaths compared with what was predicted. The income-related inequality in all-cause mortality was higher than predicted. This increase in inequality resulted from the combination of COVID-19 mortality, which was more unequally distributed than predicted total mortality, and the inequality in non-COVID causes, which was less unequal than predicted. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increase in income-related inequality in all-cause mortality. Non-COVID mortality was less unequally distributed than expected due to displacement of other causes by COVID-19 and the potentially unequal broader societal impact of the pandemic.

Effects of performance-based capitation payment on the use of public primary health care services in Indonesia.

The Indonesian national health insurance agency BPJS Kesehatan, the largest single-payer system in the world, is among the first to combine capitation-based payments with performance-based financing. The Kapitasi Berbasis Komitmen (KBK) scheme for puskesmas (community health centres) was implemented in province capitals between August 2015 and May 2016. Its main goal was to incentivize the substitution of secondary by primary care use. We evaluate its effect on its three incentivized outcomes: the fraction of insured visiting the puskesmas, the fraction of chronically ill with a puskesmas visit and the hospital referral rate for insured with a non-specialistic condition. We use BPJS Kesehatan claims data from 2015 to 2016 from a stratified one percent sample of its members. Comparable control districts were identified using coarsened exact matching. We adopt a Difference-in-Differences (DID) study design and estimate a two-way fixed effects regression model to compare 27 intervention districts to 300 comparable non-capital control districts. We find that KBK payment increased the monthly percentage of enrolees contacting a puskesmas with 0.578 percentage points. This is a sizeable increase of 48 percent compared to the baseline rate of just 1.2% but it still leaves most puskesmas far below the "sufficient" KBK threshold of 15%. For chronically ill patients, a small increase of 1.15 percentage points was estimated, but it leaves the rate even further below the program's "sufficient" threshold of 50%. We find no statistically significant effect on referral rates to hospitals for conditions not requiring specialist care. While we find positive effects of KBK on two out of three outcomes, all estimated effect sizes leave the actual rates far below the program targets. Our findings suggest that the KBK performance-based capitation reform has not been very successful in substituting secondary care use by greater primary care use.

The health impact of free access to antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Since 2004 the South African government has rolled out free antiretroviral therapy (ART) at public health care facilities nationwide. No prior studies have estimated the impact of the ART rollout on health and survival using a longitudinal household survey with national coverage. We match household member deaths and self-assessed health from a large national longitudinal survey to community-level ART availability in clinics to estimate the reduction in mortality and morbidity attributable to ART availability between 2006 and 2016, using a difference-in-difference model. Our analysis focuses on black Africans aged 25-49 because this demographic group represents more than two-thirds of all South African HIV cases. We find that the rollout of free ART has reduced annual mortality by 27% and decreased the likelihood of reporting poor health by 36% for black Africans aged 25-49. These estimates amount to annual reductions in this demographic category of 31% in annual mortality and 47% in individuals reporting poor health. Our findings confirm that making ART treatment freely available nationwide has had a dramatic impact in terms of both prolonged survival and improved health, with most of these gains concentrated in the high HIV prevalence group of black Africans aged 25-49.

Does geographic spending variation exacerbate healthcare benefit inequality? A benefit incidence analysis for Indonesia.

The Indonesian government has made some ambitious steps to achieve Universal Health Coverage through the newly formed National Health Insurance [Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN)], establishing a single-payer insurance agency and prospective provider payment mechanism. This study aims to assess the benefit incidence of healthcare funding in the JKN era, and its distribution by socio-economic status considering regional variation in unit costs. We evaluate whether the benefit incidence of funding is skewed towards urban and wealthier households. We also investigate whether standard benefit incidence analysis using national unit costs underestimates regional disparities in healthcare funding. Lastly, we examine whether the design of the JKN provider payment system exacerbates regional inequalities in healthcare funding and treatment intensity. The analysis relies on Indonesia's annual National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas) and administrative data on JKN provider payments from 2015 to 2017, combined at district level for 466 districts. We find that the benefit incidence of healthcare expenditure favours the wealthier groups. We also observe substantial variation in hospital unit costs across regions in Indonesia. As a result, standard benefit incidence analysis (using national average unit transfers) underestimates the inequality due to regional disparities in healthcare supply and intensity of treatment. The JKN provider payment seems to favour relatively wealthier regions that harbour more advanced healthcare services. Urban dwellers and people living in Java and Bali also enjoy greater healthcare benefit incidence compared to rural areas and the other islands.

Changing Inequalities in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Income and Race in South Africa.

Trends in socioeconomic-related health inequalities is a particularly pertinent topic in South Africa where years of systematic discrimination under apartheid bequeathed a legacy of inequalities in health outcomes. We use three nationally representative datasets to examine trends in income- and race-related inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) since the beginning of the millennium. We find that, in aggregate, (HA)LE at age five fell substantially between 2001 and 2007, but then increased to above 2001 levels by 2016, with the largest changes observed among prime age adults. Income- and race-related inequalities in both LE and HALE favor relatively well-off and non-Black South Africans in all survey years. Both income- and race-related inequalities in (HA)LE grew between 2001 and 2007, and then narrowed between 2007 to 2016. However, while race-related inequalities in (HA)LE in 2016 were smaller than in 2001, income-related inequalities in (HA)LE were greater in 2016 than in 2001. Based on the patterns and timing observed, these trends in income- and race-related inequalities in (HA)LE are most likely related to the delayed initial policy response to the HIV epidemic, the subsequent rapid and effective rollout of anti-retroviral therapy, and the changes in the overall income distribution among Black South Africans. In particular, the growth of the Black middle class narrowed the HA(LE) gap with the non-Black population but reinforced income-related inequalities.