The relationship between having a job and the outcome of brief therapy in patients with common mental disorders.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that being employed is associated not only with patients' health but also with the outcome of their treatment for severe mental illness. This study examined what influence employment had on improvements in mental health and functioning among patients with common mental disorders who received brief treatment and how patients' diagnosis, environmental and individual factors moderated the association between being employed and treatment outcome. METHODS: The study used naturalistic data from a cohort of patients in a large mental health franchise in the Netherlands. The data were obtained from electronic registration systems, intake questionnaires and Routine Outcome Monitoring (ROM). The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) framework was used to identify potential subgroups of patients. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the relationship between employment status and treatment outcome and to determine how the relationship differed among ICF subgroups of patients. RESULTS: A strong relationship was found between employment status and the outcome of brief therapy for patients with common mental disorders. After potential confounding variables had been controlled, patients who were employed were 54% more likely to recover compared to unemployed patients. Two significant interactions were identified. Among patients who were 60 years of age or younger, being employed was positively related to recovery, but this relationship disappeared in patients older than 60 years. Second, among patients in all living situations there was a positive effect of being employed on recovery, but this effect did not occur among children (18+) who were living with a single parent. CONCLUSIONS: Being employed was positively associated with treatment outcome among both people with a severe mental illness and those with a common mental disorder (CMD). The main strength of this study was its use of a large dataset from a nationwide franchised company. Attention to work is important not only for people with a severe mental illness, but also for people with a CMD. This means that in addition to re-integration methods that focus on people with a severe mental illness, more interventions are needed for people with a CMD.

Predicting Future Service Use in Dutch Mental Healthcare: A Machine Learning Approach.

A mental healthcare system in which the scarce resources are equitably and efficiently allocated, benefits from a predictive model about expected service use. The skewness in service use is a challenge for such models. In this study, we applied a machine learning approach to forecast expected service use, as a starting point for agreements between financiers and suppliers of mental healthcare. This study used administrative data from a large mental healthcare organization in the Netherlands. A training set was selected using records from 2017 (N = 10,911), and a test set was selected using records from 2018 (N = 10,201). A baseline model and three random forest models were created from different types of input data to predict (the remainder of) numeric individual treatment hours. A visual analysis was performed on the individual predictions. Patients consumed 62 h of mental healthcare on average in 2018. The model that best predicted service use had a mean error of 21 min at the insurance group level and an average absolute error of 28 h at the patient level. There was a systematic under prediction of service use for high service use patients. The application of machine learning techniques on mental healthcare data is useful for predicting expected service on group level. The results indicate that these models could support financiers and suppliers of healthcare in the planning and allocation of resources. Nevertheless, uncertainty in the prediction of high-cost patients remains a challenge.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis to Evaluate a System Change in Mental Healthcare in the Netherlands for Patients with Depression or Anxiety.

Over the last decade, the Dutch mental healthcare system has been subject to profound policy reforms, in order to achieve affordable, accessible, and high quality care. One of the adjustments was to substitute part of the specialized care for general mental healthcare. Using a quasi-experimental design, we compared the cost-effectiveness of patients in the new setting with comparable patients from specialized mental healthcare in the old setting. Results showed that for this group of patients the average cost of treatment was significantly reduced by, on average, €2132 (p < 0.001), with similar health outcomes as in the old system.

Predicting Undesired Treatment Outcomes With Machine Learning in Mental Health Care: Multisite Study.

Background: Predicting which treatment will work for which patient in mental health care remains a challenge. Objective: The aim of this multisite study was 2-fold: (1) to predict patients' response to treatment in Dutch basic mental health care using commonly available data from routine care and (2) to compare the performance of these machine learning models across three different mental health care organizations in the Netherlands by using clinically interpretable models. Methods: Using anonymized data sets from three different mental health care organizations in the Netherlands (n=6452), we applied a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression 3 times to predict the treatment outcome. The algorithms were internally validated with cross-validation within each site and externally validated on the data from the other sites. Results: The performance of the algorithms, measured by the area under the curve of the internal validations as well as the corresponding external validations, ranged from 0.77 to 0.80. Conclusions: Machine learning models provide a robust and generalizable approach in automated risk signaling technology to identify cases at risk of poor treatment outcomes. The results of this study hold substantial implications for clinical practice by demonstrating that the performance of a model derived from one site is similar when applied to another site (ie, good external validation).

Translating promise into practice: a review of machine learning in suicide research and prevention.

In ever more pressured health-care systems, technological solutions offering scalability of care and better resource targeting are appealing. Research on machine learning as a technique for identifying individuals at risk of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and death has grown rapidly. This research often places great emphasis on the promise of machine learning for preventing suicide, but overlooks the practical, clinical implementation issues that might preclude delivering on such a promise. In this Review, we synthesise the broad empirical and review literature on electronic health record-based machine learning in suicide research, and focus on matters of crucial importance for implementation of machine learning in clinical practice. The challenge of preventing statistically rare outcomes is well known; progress requires tackling data quality, transparency, and ethical issues. In the future, machine learning models might be explored as methods to enable targeting of interventions to specific individuals depending upon their level of need-ie, for precision medicine. Primarily, however, the promise of machine learning for suicide prevention is limited by the scarcity of high-quality scalable interventions available to individuals identified by machine learning as being at risk of suicide.

Using machine learning to predict mental healthcare consumption in non-affective psychosis.

OBJECTIVE: The main goal of the study was to predict individual patients' future mental healthcare consumption, and thereby enhancing the design of an efficient demand-oriented mental healthcare system by focusing on a patient population associated with intensive mental healthcare consumption. Factors that affect the mental healthcare consumption of service users with non-affective psychosis were identified, and subsequently used in a prognostic model to predict future healthcare consumption. METHOD: This study was a secondary analysis of an existing dataset from the GROUP study. Based on mental healthcare consumption, patients with non-affective psychosis were divided into two groups: low (N = 579) and high (N = 488) intensive mental healthcare consumers. Three different techniques from the field of machine learning were applied on crosssectional data to identify risk factors: logistic regression, classification tree and a random forest. Subsequently, the same techniques were applied longitudinally in order to predict future healthcare consumption. RESULTS: Identified variables that affected healthcare consumption were the number of psychotic episodes, paid employment, engagement in social activities, previous healthcare consumption, and met needs. Analyses showed that the random forest method is best suited to model risk factors, and that these relations predict future healthcare consumption (AUC 0.71, PPV 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning techniques provide valuable information for identifying risk factors in psychosis. They may thus help clinicians optimize allocation of mental healthcare resources by predicting future healthcare consumption.

Applying machine learning on health record data from general practitioners to predict suicidality.

BACKGROUND: Suicidal behaviour is difficult to detect in the general practice. Machine learning (ML) algorithms using routinely collected data might support General Practitioners (GPs) in the detection of suicidal behaviour. In this paper, we applied machine learning techniques to support GPs recognizing suicidal behaviour in primary care patients using routinely collected general practice data. METHODS: This case-control study used data from a national representative primary care database including over 1.5 million patients (Nivel Primary Care Database). Patients with a suicide (attempt) in 2017 were selected as cases (N = 574) and an at risk control group (N = 207,308) was selected from patients with psychological vulnerability but without a suicide attempt in 2017. RandomForest was trained on a small subsample of the data (training set), and evaluated on unseen data (test set). RESULTS: Almost two-third (65%) of the cases visited their GP within the last 30 days before the suicide (attempt). RandomForest showed a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.05 (0.04-0.06), with a sensitivity of 0.39 (0.32-0.47) and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (0.81-0.88). Almost all controls were accurately labeled as controls (specificity = 0.98 (0.97-0.98)). Among a sample of 650 at-risk primary care patients, the algorithm would label 20 patients as high-risk. Of those, one would be an actual case and additionally, one case would be missed. CONCLUSION: In this study, we applied machine learning to predict suicidal behaviour using general practice data. Our results showed that these techniques can be used as a complementary step in the identification and stratification of patients at risk of suicidal behaviour. The results are encouraging and provide a first step to use automated screening directly in clinical practice. Additional data from different social domains, such as employment and education, might improve accuracy.

Predicting future suicidal behaviour in young adults, with different machine learning techniques: A population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The predictive accuracy of suicidal behaviour has not improved over the last decades. We aimed to explore the potential of machine learning to predict future suicidal behaviour using population-based longitudinal data. METHOD: Baseline risk data assessed within the Scottish wellbeing study, in which 3508 young adults (18-34 years) completed a battery of psychological measures, were used to predict both suicide ideation and suicide attempts at one-year follow-up. The performance of the following algorithms was compared: regular logistic regression, K-nearest neighbors, classification tree, random forests, gradient boosting and support vector machine. RESULTS: At one year follow up, 2428 respondents (71%) finished the second assessment. 336 respondents (14%) reported suicide ideation between baseline and follow up, and 50 (2%) reported a suicide attempt. All performance metrics were highly similar across methods. The random forest algorithm was the best algorithm to predict suicide ideation (AUC 0.83, PPV 0.52, BA 0.74) and the gradient boosting to predict suicide attempt (AUC 0.80, PPV 0.10, BA 0.69). LIMITATIONS: The number of respondents with suicidal behaviour at follow up was small. We only had data on psychological risk factors, limiting the potential of the more complex machine learning algorithms to outperform regular logistical regression. CONCLUSIONS: When applied to population-based longitudinal data containing multiple psychological measurements, machine learning techniques did not significantly improve the predictive accuracy of suicidal behaviour. Adding more detailed data on for example employment, education or previous health care uptake, might result in better performance of machine learning over regular logistical regression.