Gamma-irradiation of common biological samples for stable carbon and nitrogen isotope and elemental analyses.

RATIONALE: Around the world biosecurity measures are being strengthened to prevent the spread of pests and diseases across national and international borders. Quarantine protocols that involve sample sterilisation have potential effects on sample integrity. The consequences of sterilisation methods such as gamma (γ)-irradiation on the elemental and chemical properties of biological samples have not been widely examined. METHODS: We tested the effect of γ-irradiation (50 kGy) on the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions (δ13 C and δ15 N values) and elemental concentrations (C % and N %) of common biological samples (fish, plants and bulk soils). The analysis used a continuous flow system consisting of a Delta V Plus isotope ratio mass spectrometer connected with a Thermo Flash 1112 elemental analyser via a ConFlo IV interface. Results were compared using two one-sided tests (TOST) to test for statistical similarity between paired samples. RESULTS: There was no change in the δ15 N values or N % of γ-irradiated samples, and only small changes to the δ13 C values of consumers (range: 0.01‰ to 0.04‰), producers (-0.02‰ to 0.04‰) and sediments (0‰ to 0.07‰). The magnitude of change in δ13 C values was greatest at low carbon concentrations but appeared negligible when measured against replicated sample analysis and the combined analytical uncertainty (i.e., 0.10‰). The C % values of irradiated samples were higher for consumers (0.23%) and lower for producers and sediments (0.04% and 0.05%, respectively) which may have implications for certain types of biological material. CONCLUSIONS: Routine γ-irradiation has little effect on the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions of common biological samples and marginal effects on carbon elemental concentrations. This is unlikely to warrant concerns since the observed difference is typically of a magnitude lower than other sources of potential uncertainty.

Setting priorities for conservation at the interface between ocean circulation, connectivity, and population dynamics.

Population persistence in the marine environment is driven by patterns of ocean circulation, larval dispersal, ecological interactions, and demographic rates. For habitat-forming organisms in particular, understanding the relationship between larval connectivity and meta-population dynamics aids in planning for marine spatial management. Here, we estimate networks of connectivity between fringing coral reefs in the northwest shelf of Australia by combining a particle tracking model based on shelf circulation with models of subpopulation dynamics of individual reefs. Coral cover data were used as a proxy for overall habitat quality, which can change as a result of natural processes, human-driven impacts, and management initiatives. We obtain three major results of conservation significance. First, the dynamics of the ecological network result from the interplay between network connectivity and ecological processes on individual reefs. The maximum coral cover a zone can sustain imposes a significant nonlinearity on the role an individual reef plays within the dynamics of the network, and thus on the impact of conservation interventions on specific reefs. Second, the role of an individual reef within these network dynamics changes considerably depending on the overall state of the system: a reef's role in sustaining the system's state can be different from the same reef's role in helping the system recover following major disturbance. Third, patterns of network connectivity change significantly as a function of yearly shelf circulation trends, and nonlinearity in network dynamics make mean connectivity a poor representation of yearly variations. From a management perspective, the priority list of reefs that are targets for management interventions depends crucially on what type of stressors (system-wide vs. localized) need addressing. This choice also depends not only on the ultimate purpose of management, but also on future oceanographic, climate change, and development scenarios that will determine the network connectivity and habitat quality.

Comparisons of stable isotope composition among tissues of green turtles.

Ecologists often need to make choices about what body parts (tissues or organs) of an animal to sample. The decision is typically guided by the need to treat animals as humanely as possible, as well as the information that different body parts can provide. When using stable isotopes, decisions are also influenced by whether specimens would require preservation, and whether they have properties (such as high lipid concentrations) that would influence measurements. Sometimes we cannot use a preferred tissue (for example, because of ethical or logistical constraints), and in such cases an ability to reliably predict stable isotope composition for one tissue from data yielded by another would be useful. METHODS: In this study we analysed multiple tissues (skin, whole blood, red blood cells, plasma and nail) from green turtles (Chelonia mydas) to evaluate variation in C:N ratios, and test hypotheses about the intercept and slope of regressions of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions among tissues. RESULTS: Regression models revealed that linear relationships were present for most comparisons, except those involving the δ13 C of skin, and the slopes (ß1 ) of most regressions were different from unity. The C:N ratios of skin were significantly higher and more variable than those of other tissues. The δ13 C and δ15 N of nail were highly correlated with those of the whole blood, red blood cells and plasma. Nail and red blood cells showed low variation in C:N. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns in slopes of regressions indicate that comparisons of measurements yielded by different tissues of wild animals are complicated by the fact that the tissues are unlikely to be in isotopic equilibrium with their diet. Of the tissues used in this study, nail is simple to collect, requires minimal disturbance to the animal and no special preservation; these traits should make it attractive to turtle ecologists, but more information is needed on aspects such as growth rates.

Overwintering tropical herbivores accelerate detritus production on temperate reefs.

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems can lead to increased herbivory rates, reducing the standing stock of seaweeds and potentially causing increases in detritus production. However, long-term studies analysing these processes associated with the persistence of tropical herbivores in temperate reefs are lacking. We assessed the seasonal variation in abundances, macrophyte consumption, feeding modes and defecation rates of the range-extending tropical rabbitfish Siganus fuscescens and the temperate silver drummer Kyphosus sydneyanus and herring cale Olisthops cyanomelas on tropicalized reefs of Western Australia. Rabbitfish overwintered in temperate reefs, consumed more kelp and other macrophytes in all feeding modes, and defecated more during both summer and winter than the temperate herbivores. Herbivory and defecation increased with rabbitfish abundance, but this was dependent on temperature, with higher rates attained by big schools during summer and lower rates in winter. Still, rabbitfish surpassed temperate herbivores, leading to a fivefold acceleration in the transformation of macrophyte standing stock to detritus, a function usually attributed to sea urchins in kelp forests. Our results suggest that further warming and tropicalization will not only increase primary consumption and affect the habitat structure of temperate reefs but also increase detritus production, with the potential to modify energy pathways.

Phenological decoupling of mortality from wave forcing in kelp beds.

Kelps often live in a harsh hydrodynamic environment where wave-driven dislodgement of individuals can alter the biodiversity and functioning of reef systems, and increase production in coastal ecosystems adjacent to reefs. The current paradigm is that winter storms tear kelps from reefs once hydrodynamic forces exceed attachment or tissue strength--a threshold response that implies a pulsed relationship between wave forces and dislodgement. Here, we challenge this understanding by showing how kelp phenology can decouple susceptibility to dislodgement from seasonal patterns in wave forces. We measured kelp dislodgement rates and hydrodynamic forces at nine subtidal reefs over two years (n = 4320 kelps tagged and monitored). Contrary to expectation, we found relatively low and constant dislodgement rates for all reefs (13% +/- 6% [mean per season +/- SD]) in spite of a strong temporal pattern in wave action and extreme water velocities (winter peaks up to 3-4 m/s). A biomechanical model, based on the balance between kelp attachment strength and hydrodynamic drag, demonstrated that severe reduction in individual kelp size toward winter (>50% decrease in biomass for all sites) minimized drag and made the kelps less susceptible to high water velocities, allowing individuals to survive storm velocities over 3-4 m/s. We conclude that the timing of reduced susceptibility to disturbance, through the seasonal reduction of individual kelp biomass that coincides with times of highest water velocities is critical to the dynamics of kelp dislodgement and survival. We propose that phenological processes maintain many kelp beds in a higher degree of population stability and equilibrium with hydrodynamic forces than previously believed.

Drying method has no substantial effect on δ(15)N or δ(13)C values of muscle tissue from teleost fishes.

RATIONALE: Stable isotope analysis (SIA) is a powerful tool in many fields of research that enables quantitative comparisons among studies, if similar methods have been used. The goal of this study was to determine if three different drying methods commonly used to prepare samples for SIA yielded different δ(15)N and δ(13)C values. METHODS: Muscle subsamples from 10 individuals each of three teleost species were dried using three methods: (i) oven, (ii) food dehydrator, and (iii) freeze-dryer. All subsamples were analysed for δ(15)N and δ(13)C values, and nitrogen and carbon content, using a continuous flow system consisting of a Delta V Plus mass spectrometer and a Flush 1112 elemental analyser via a Conflo IV universal interface. The δ(13)C values were normalized to constant lipid content using the equations proposed by McConnaughey and McRoy. RESULTS: Although statistically significant, the differences in δ(15)N values between the drying methods were small (mean differences ≤0.21‰). The differences in δ(13)C values between the drying methods were not statistically significant, and normalising the δ(13)C values to constant lipid content reduced the mean differences for all treatments to ≤0.65‰. A statistically significant difference of ~2% in C content existed between tissues dried in a food dehydrator and those dried in a freeze-dryer for two fish species. There was no significant effect of fish size on the differences between methods. CONCLUSIONS: No substantial effect of drying method was found on the δ(15)N or δ(13)C values of teleost muscle tissue.

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Foundation Species.

Marine foundation species are the biotic basis for many of the world's coastal ecosystems, providing structural habitat, food, and protection for myriad plants and animals as well as many ecosystem services. However, climate change poses a significant threat to foundation species and the ecosystems they support. We review the impacts of climate change on common marine foundation species, including corals, kelps, seagrasses, salt marsh plants, mangroves, and bivalves. It is evident that marine foundation species have already been severely impacted by several climate change drivers, often through interactive effects with other human stressors, such as pollution, overfishing, and coastal development. Despite considerable variation in geographical, environmental, and ecological contexts, direct and indirect effects of gradual warming and subsequent heatwaves have emerged as the most pervasive drivers of observed impact and potent threat across all marine foundation species, but effects from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and increased storminess are expected to increase. Documented impacts include changes in the genetic structures, physiology, abundance, and distribution of the foundation species themselves and changes to their interactions with other species, with flow-on effects to associated communities, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. We discuss strategies to support marine foundation species into the Anthropocene, in order to increase their resilience and ensure the persistence of the ecosystem services they provide.

The effects of protection from fishing on species richness: distinguishing between alternative explanations.

Marine reserves that prohibit fishing often result in greater densities of individuals and more species than adjacent fished areas. However, simple conclusions about their effects on species richness are confounded, because more species are expected to occur wherever there are more individuals. Here, there is an important distinction between the number of species per sampling unit (species density), and species richness measured as the number of species per given number of individuals. When conservation of species richness is an important goal, analyses need to discriminate between the alternative explanations for differences in the number of species. We used rarefaction to test whether species richness was higher in two 'no-take' marine reserves after controlling for differences in the density of individuals. We surveyed each reserve in three different years. There was a higher density of individuals and species in each reserve than in adjacent fished areas. However, rarefaction analyses indicated that effects on species richness were weak after controlling for the number of individuals: slightly higher species richness was recorded inside each reserve in one of three surveys, but the difference was small, and was apparent only when the maximum number of individuals was approached. Our results therefore indicate that patterns in species density were not reflected by patterns in species richness-the application of rarefaction methods is needed to determine the responses of species richness to protection elsewhere. The distinction between species density and species richness will not be important in all situations, but when it is important, inferences about species richness cannot be reliably deduced from measurements of species density.

Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review.

The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61-268 Tg C year-1 ), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.

Blue carbon assessments of seagrass and mangrove ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia: Current progress and knowledge gaps.

Coastal blue carbon ecosystems can be an important nature-based solution for mitigating climate change, when emphasis is given to their protection, management, and restoration. Globally, there has been a rapid increase in blue carbon research in the last few decades, with substantial investments on national scales by the European Union, the USA, Australia, Seychelles, and Belize. Blue carbon ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia are globally diverse, highly productive and could represent a global hotspot for carbon sequestration and storage. To guide future efforts, we conducted a systematic review of the available literature on two primary blue carbon ecosystems-seagrasses and mangroves-across 13 countries in South and Southeast Asia to assess existing national inventories, review current research trends and methodologies, and identify existing knowledge gaps. Information related to various aspects of seagrass and mangrove ecosystems was extracted from 432 research articles from 1967 to 2022. We find that: (1) blue carbon estimates in several countries have limited data, especially for seagrass meadows compared to mangrove ecosystems, although the highest reported carbon stocks were in Indonesia and the Philippines with 4,515 and 707 Tg within mangrove forest and 60.9 and 63.3 Tg within seagrass meadows, respectively; (2) there is a high difference in the quantity and quality of data between mangrove and seagrass ecosystems, and the methodologies used for blue carbon estimates are highly variable across countries; and (3) most studies on blue carbon stocks are spatially biased towards more familiar study areas of individual countries, than several lesser-known suspected blue carbon hotspots. In sum, our review demonstrates the paucity and variability in current research in the region, and highlights research frontiers that should be addressed by future research before the robust implementation of these ecosystems into national climate strategies.

Global patterns in the impact of marine herbivores on benthic primary producers.

Despite the importance of consumers in structuring communities, and the widespread assumption that consumption is strongest at low latitudes, empirical tests for global scale patterns in the magnitude of consumer impacts are limited. In marine systems, the long tradition of experimentally excluding herbivores in their natural environments allows consumer impacts to be quantified on global scales using consistent methodology. We present a quantitative synthesis of 613 marine herbivore exclusion experiments to test the influence of consumer traits, producer traits and the environment on the strength of herbivore impacts on benthic producers. Across the globe, marine herbivores profoundly reduced producer abundance (by 68% on average), with strongest effects in rocky intertidal habitats and the weakest effects on habitats dominated by vascular plants. Unexpectedly, we found little or no influence of latitude or mean annual water temperature. Instead, herbivore impacts differed most consistently among producer taxonomic and morphological groups. Our results show that grazing impacts on plant abundance are better predicted by producer traits than by large-scale variation in habitat or mean temperature, and that there is a previously unrecognised degree of phylogenetic conservatism in producer susceptibility to consumption.

Age prediction of green turtles with an epigenetic clock.

Age is a fundamental life history attribute that is used to understand the dynamics of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, most animals do not have a practical or nonlethal method to determine age. This makes it difficult for wildlife managers to carry out population assessments, particularly for elusive and long-lived fauna such as marine turtles. In this study, we present an epigenetic clock that predicts the age of marine turtles from skin biopsies. The model was developed and validated using DNA from known-age green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from two captive populations, and mark-recapture wild turtles with known time intervals between captures. Our method, based on DNA methylation levels at 18 CpG sites, was highly accurate with a median absolute error of 2.1 years (4.7% of maximum age in data set). This is the first epigenetic clock developed for a reptile and illustrates their broad applicability across a broad variety of vertebrate species. It has the potential to transform marine turtle management through a nonlethal and inexpensive method to provide key life history information.

Integrating blue: How do we make nationally determined contributions work for both blue carbon and local coastal communities?

Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) help mitigate and adapt to climate change but their integration into policy, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), remains underdeveloped. Most BCE conservation requires community engagement, hence community-scale projects must be nested within the implementation of NDCs without compromising livelihoods or social justice. Thirty-three experts, drawn from academia, project development and policy, each developed ten key questions for consideration on how to achieve this. These questions were distilled into ten themes, ranked in order of importance, giving three broad categories of people, policy & finance, and science & technology. Critical considerations for success include the need for genuine participation by communities, inclusive project governance, integration of local work into national policies and practices, sustaining livelihoods and income (for example through the voluntary carbon market and/or national Payment for Ecosystem Services and other types of financial compensation schemes) and simplification of carbon accounting and verification methodologies to lower barriers to entry.

Distinct Endophytic Bacterial Communities Inhabiting Seagrass Seeds.

Seagrasses are marine angiosperms that can live completely or partially submerged in water and perform a variety of significant ecosystem services. Like terrestrial angiosperms, seagrasses can reproduce sexually and, the pollinated female flower develop into fruits and seeds, which represent a critical stage in the life of plants. Seed microbiomes include endophytic microorganisms that in terrestrial plants can affect seed germination and seedling health through phytohormone production, enhanced nutrient availability and defence against pathogens. However, the characteristics and origins of the seagrass seed microbiomes is unknown. Here, we examined the endophytic bacterial community of six microenvironments (flowers, fruits, and seeds, together with leaves, roots, and rhizospheric sediment) of the seagrass Halophila ovalis collected from the Swan Estuary, in southwestern Australia. An amplicon sequencing approach (16S rRNA) was used to characterize the diversity and composition of H. ovalis bacterial microbiomes and identify core microbiome bacteria that were conserved across microenvironments. Distinct communities of bacteria were observed within specific seagrass microenvironments, including the reproductive tissues (flowers, fruits, and seeds). In particular, bacteria previously associated with plant growth promoting characteristics were mainly found within reproductive tissues. Seagrass seed-borne bacteria that exhibit growth promoting traits, the ability to fix nitrogen and anti-pathogenic potential activity, may play a pivotal role in seed survival, as is common for terrestrial plants. We present the endophytic community of the seagrass seeds as foundation for the identification of potential beneficial bacteria and their selection in order to improve seagrass restoration.

Zone specific trends in coral cover, genera and growth-forms in the World-Heritage listed Ningaloo Reef.

On coral reefs, changes in the cover and relative abundance of hard coral taxa often follow disturbance. Although the ecological responses of common coral taxa have been well documented, little is known about the ecological responses of uncommon coral taxa or of coral morphological groups across multiple adjacent reef zones. We used Multivariate Auto-Regressive State-Space modelling to assess the rate and direction of change of hard coral cover across a variety of coral genera, growth forms, and susceptibility to bleaching and physical damage covering multiple reef zones at northern Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia. Trends were assessed between 2007 and 2016, during which multiple episodic disturbances occurred including cyclones and a heatwave. We provide evidence of zone specific trends, not only in total hard coral cover, but also in taxonomic and morphological groups of corals at Ningaloo Reef. Declines in total coral cover on the reef flat corresponded with declines in fast growing corals, particularly Acropora. In contrast, total coral cover on the reef slope and inshore (lagoon) did not undergo significant change, despite divergent trajectories of individual genera. Importantly, we also show that changes in the composition of coral assemblages can be detected using a morphological based approach when changes are not evident using a taxonomic approach. Therefore, we recommend that future assessments of coral reef trends incorporate not just standard metrics such as total coral cover, but also metrics that provide for detailed descriptions of trends in common and uncommon taxa and morphological groups across multiple reef zones.

Bright Spots in Coastal Marine Ecosystem Restoration.

The United Nations General Assembly calls for ecosystem restoration to be a primary intervention strategy used to counter the continued loss of natural habitats worldwide, while supporting human health and wellbeing globally. Restoration of coastal marine ecosystems is perceived by many to be expensive and prone to failure, in part explaining its low rates of implementation compared with terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, marine ecosystem restoration is a relatively new field, and we argue that assessments of its potential to answer this call should not rely on typical outcomes, but also to learn from successful outliers. Here, we review successful restoration efforts across a suite of metrics in coastal marine systems to highlight 'bright spots'. We find that, similar to terrestrial systems, restoration interventions can be effective over large spatial expanses (1,000s-100,000s ha), persist for decades, rapidly expand in size, be cost-effective, and generate social and economic benefits. These bright spots clearly demonstrate restoration of coastal marine systems can be used as a nature-based solution to improve biodiversity and support human health and wellbeing. Examining coastal marine restoration through a historical lens shows that it has developed over a shorter period than restoration in terrestrial systems, partially explaining lower efficiencies. Given these bright spots and the relative immaturity of coastal marine ecosystem restoration, it is likely to advance rapidly over the coming decades and become a common intervention strategy that can reverse marine degradation, contribute to local economies, and improve human wellbeing at a scale relevant to addressing global threats.

Declining abundance of coral reef fish in a World-Heritage-listed marine park.

One of the most robust metrics for assessing the effectiveness of protected areas is the temporal trend in the abundance of the species they are designed to protect. We surveyed coral-reef fish and living hard coral in and adjacent to a sanctuary zone (SZ: where all forms of fishing are prohibited) in the World Heritage-listed Ningaloo Marine Park during a 10-year period. There were generally more individuals and greater biomass of many fish taxa (especially emperors and parrotfish) in the SZ than the adjacent recreation zone (RZ: where recreational fishing is allowed) - so log response ratios of abundance were usually positive in each year. However, despite this, there was an overall decrease in both SZ and RZ in absolute abundance of some taxa by up to 22% per year, including taxa that are explicitly targeted (emperors) by fishers and taxa that are neither targeted nor frequently captured (most wrasses and butterflyfish). A concomitant decline in the abundance (measured as percentage cover) of living hard coral of 1-7% per year is a plausible explanation for the declining abundance of butterflyfish, but declines in emperors might be more plausibly due to fishing. Our study highlights that information on temporal trends in absolute abundance is needed to assess whether the goals of protected areas are being met: in our study, patterns in absolute abundance across ten years of surveys revealed trends that simple ratios of abundance did not.

Exploited species impacts on trophic linkages along reef-seagrass interfaces in the Florida Keys.

The removal of fish biomass by extensive commercial and recreational fishing has been hypothesized to drastically alter the strength of trophic linkages among adjacent habitats. We evaluated the effects of removing predatory fishes on trophic transfers between coral reefs and adjacent seagrass meadows by comparing fish community structure, grazing intensity, and invertebrate predation potential in predator-rich no-take sites and nearby predator-poor fished sites in the Florida Keys (USA). Exploited fishes were more abundant at the no-take sites than at the fished sites. Most of the exploited fishes were either omnivores or invertivores. More piscivores were recorded at no-take sites, but most (approximately 95%) were moderately fished and unexploited species (barracuda and bar jacks, respectively). Impacts of these consumers on lower trophic levels were modest. Herbivorous and smaller prey fish (< 10 cm total length) densities and seagrass grazing diminished with distance from reefs and were not negatively impacted by the elevated densities of exploited fishes at no-take sites. Predation by reef fishes on most tethered invertebrates was high, but exploited species impacts varied with prey type. The results of the study show that, even though abundances of reef-associated fishes have been reduced at fished sites, there is little evidence that this has produced cascading trophic effects or interrupted cross-habitat energy exchanges between coral reefs and seagrasses.

Challenges of transferring models of fish abundance between coral reefs.

Reliable abundance estimates for species are fundamental in ecology, fisheries, and conservation. Consequently, predictive models able to provide reliable estimates for un- or poorly-surveyed locations would prove a valuable tool for management. Based on commonly used environmental and physical predictors, we developed predictive models of total fish abundance and of abundance by fish family for ten representative taxonomic families for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using multiple temporal scenarios. We then tested if models developed for the GBR (reference system) could predict fish abundances at Ningaloo Reef (NR; target system), i.e., if these GBR models could be successfully transferred to NR. Models of abundance by fish family resulted in improved performance (e.g., 44.1%  0.05). High spatio-temporal variability of patterns in fish abundance at the family and population levels in both reef systems likely affected the transferability of these models. Inclusion of additional predictors with potential direct effects on abundance, such as local fishing effort or topographic complexity, may improve transferability of fish abundance models. However, observations of these local-scale predictors are often not available, and might thereby hinder studies on model transferability and its usefulness for conservation planning and management.

Tropicalization strengthens consumer pressure on habitat-forming seaweeds.

Ocean warming is driving species poleward, causing a 'tropicalization' of temperate ecosystems around the world. Increasing abundances of tropical herbivores on temperate reefs could accelerate declines in habitat-forming seaweeds with devastating consequences for these important marine ecosystems. Here we document an expansion of rabbitfish (Siganus fuscescens), a tropical herbivore, on temperate reefs in Western Australia following a marine heatwave and demonstrate their impact on local kelp forests (Ecklonia radiata). Before the heatwave there were no rabbitfish and low rates of kelp herbivory but after the heatwave rabbitfish were common at most reefs and consumption of kelp was high. Herbivory increased 30-fold and kelp abundance decreased by 70% at reefs where rabbitfish had established. In contrast, where rabbitfish were absent, kelp abundance and herbivory did not change. Video-analysis confirmed that rabbitfish were the main consumers of kelp, followed by silver drummers (Kyphosus sydneyanus), a temperate herbivore. These results represent a likely indirect effect of the heatwave beyond its acute impacts, and they provide evidence that range-shifting tropical herbivores can contribute to declines in habitat-forming seaweeds within a few years of their establishment.